Jay Leno is killing NBC

[bicker]

Info about the post-Olympics schedule is also beginning to come out.


UPDATED: http://www.thefutoncritic.com/news.aspx?id=20100114nbc01

[Amnesia]

Here is the google link for the history of the tonight show ratings (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&tbo=p&tbs=tl:1&q=ratings+history+of+tonight+show&btnG=Search&aq=f&oq=&aqi=)That graph is number of stories, right? It's not the actual ratings.

[DevdogAZ]

So the other day when Leno joked about Conan saying he got 7 months, where Leno said that's great, I got only 4 months, he was kinda fibbing, no?

-smak-
Not fibbing, but talking about two totally different things. Leno's 4 month reference was to his 10 pm show, not his beginnings on The Tonight Show in 1992.
Most people don't get to fail up.

-smak-
Who's failing up (other than Lane Kiffin)? Leno's ratings were gangbusters when he last hosted at 11:35. There's no reason to believe he won't be able to recapture a significant portion of that audience if/when he goes back to that timeslot. Just because NBC's idea didn't work in prime time doesn't mean Leno failed and is now tainted. He's still a great late-night host and comedian.

[Jeeters]

Interesting article here (http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/jeff-zucker-threatens-to-ice-conan-ill-keep-you-off-the-air-for-3-12-years/) offering insider info on what's been going down between Conan's reps and NBC's reps. Poor Conan.

[zalusky]

You know it's too bad. I really think the alternating week solution would have been brilliant.
1) No reruns -ever.
2) Leno can go to Vegas or whatever and do his stand up on his off weeks. Same with Conan.
3) Both fans get their man and they can appeal to both young and old.
4) Better competition against letterman and keeping the talent.
5) The tonight show retains it's one hour thing at 11:35
6) 10PM is back to normal.
7) Both hosts can claim the tonight show
8) Conan has time to improve his ratings and possibly take over in the future.

It's not gonna happen now but what do you guys think?

If they got past the egos

[DevdogAZ]

It's being reported that January 22nd will be Conan's last night.

http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20336890,00.html
That's too bad. I wish he could have at least continued until the Olympics started, but I guess that's only a two-week difference, and one of those weeks was already going to be a hiatus, so it didn't really make sense for them all to come back from vacation for one more week of show. I wonder if NBC will start Leno on The Tonight Show earlier than March 1 now, or if they'll just air re-runs for those two weeks.

[DevdogAZ]

You know it's too bad. I really think the alternating week solution would have been brilliant.
1) No reruns -ever.
2) Leno can go to Vegas or whatever and do his stand up on his off weeks. Same with Conan.
3) Both fans get their man and they can appeal to both young and old.
4) Better competition against letterman and keeping the talent.
5) The tonight show retains it's one hour thing at 11:35
6) 10PM is back to normal.
7) Both hosts can claim the tonight show
8) Conan has time to improve his ratings and possibly take over in the future.

It's not gonna happen now but what do you guys think?

If they got past the egos
I don't think it would work at all. People want to be able to tune into a show and have a good sense for what it's going to be. As the saying went about Johnny Carson's show, millions of people wanted to end the day being "tucked in by Johnny." There's some comfort to knowing who will be on TV as you're going to bed. I think viewers would find it unnerving if sometimes they tuned in and it was Conan, and sometimes they tuned in and it was Leno. Instead of capturing both demographics and increasing the overall audience, I think that instead they'd turn people away who didn't want to deal with not knowing who would be on when, and it would ultimately be a huge bonus for Letterman.

[timckelley]

It's not gonna happen now but what do you guys think?That Zuckerman needs to be punished.

[MickeS]

That Zuckerman needs to be punished.

:confused:http://www.jossip.com/wp/docs/2007/08/andrea-zuckerman-sm.JPG

What did she ever do? :(

[MickeS]

I'm guessing Conan is happy now at least - "The Tonight Show" remains at 11:35 PM, like he wanted. :D

[zalusky]

I don't think it would work at all. People want to be able to tune into a show and have a good sense for what it's going to be. As the saying went about Johnny Carson's show, millions of people wanted to end the day being "tucked in by Johnny." There's some comfort to knowing who will be on TV as you're going to bed. I think viewers would find it unnerving if sometimes they tuned in and it was Conan, and sometimes they tuned in and it was Leno. Instead of capturing both demographics and increasing the overall audience, I think that instead they'd turn people away who didn't want to deal with not knowing who would be on when, and it would ultimately be a huge bonus for Letterman.

If it was alternating weeks you would know or Mondays and Fridays.
Carson did that the last few years with Jay on Fridays. So it's been done before.

[getreal]

Having alternating hosts would mean paying two full salaries for exactly half the work. Not a great business model. Surprised NBC hadn't thought of it already. ;)

[DevdogAZ]

Having alternating hosts would mean paying two full salaries for exactly half the work. Not a great business model. Surprised NBC hadn't thought of it already. ;)
That's what they were going to do when they proposed Leno at 11:35 and Conan at 12:05. Now they're likely just going to pay one to go away, so they'll essentially be paying both of them for a little while yet.

[TheMerk]

I don't think it would work at all. People want to be able to tune into a show and have a good sense for what it's going to be. As the saying went about Johnny Carson's show, millions of people wanted to end the day being "tucked in by Johnny." There's some comfort to knowing who will be on TV as you're going to bed. I think viewers would find it unnerving if sometimes they tuned in and it was Conan, and sometimes they tuned in and it was Leno. Instead of capturing both demographics and increasing the overall audience, I think that instead they'd turn people away who didn't want to deal with not knowing who would be on when, and it would ultimately be a huge bonus for Letterman.

While I don't agree with the idea of switching one week Jay, one week Conan, I don't think the basic premise of your reasoning holds water. Johnny had MANY guest hosts, and the Tonight Show did just fine. Sure, people wanted to see Johnny, but enough people kept tuning in even when he had guest hosts.

[DevdogAZ]

So I wonder if Leno moves to Conan's brand-new studio. Seems like there was some talk on here last summer that Leno's digs in Burbank had actually been sold and NBC was just leasing back that one soundstage, but that most of their west coast operations were consolidated at Universal Studios where Conan's show is shot.

If Leno doesn't move, I wonder if they'll make many changes to his set for the move to 11:35. If he does move to Conan's studio, I wonder if they'll leave it the same or change it up.

[DevdogAZ]

While I don't agree with the idea of switching one week Jay, one week Conan, I don't think the basic premise of your reasoning holds water. Johnny had MANY guest hosts, and the Tonight Show did just fine. Sure, people wanted to see Johnny, but enough people kept tuning in even when he had guest hosts.
I don't think you can really compare it to Carson, though. He was really the only one doing late-night comedy, so people just got comfortable turning on NBC after the news. If it turned out that Johnny wasn't there that night, people didn't really have any other choice for a late-night comedy talk show. Today, that's not the case. If they like Conan but tune in and find Leno, they might switch to Letterman. Maybe they'll forget to go back and check if Conan is there the next week. I just don't see that working at all.

[zalusky]

While I don't agree with the idea of switching one week Jay, one week Conan, I don't think the basic premise of your reasoning holds water. Johnny had MANY guest hosts, and the Tonight Show did just fine. Sure, people wanted to see Johnny, but enough people kept tuning in even when he had guest hosts.

Johnny did have many guest hosts for a while but in the last few years Jay was the permanent guest host.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Tonight_Show

Jay Leno; first run (1992–2009)
Main article: The Tonight Show with Jay Leno
First Lady Laura Bush and Jay Leno

Johnny Carson retired on May 22, 1992, and was replaced by Jay Leno amid controversy. David Letterman not only wanted to move into that earlier time slot from his late night spot after The Tonight Show, but was considered by Carson and others as the natural successor[3] (despite Leno having been Carson's permanent guest host for several years).[4] Letterman, having had his heart set on the earlier time slot, left NBC and joined CBS. Late Show with David Letterman, airing in the same slot, has been competing head to head against The Tonight Show ever since.[5] After Leno's run as host of The Tonight Show, Conan O'Brien took over as host.

[DancnDude]

I would imagine they would move into Conan's studio and at least have to redesign the band's area since Kevin and his band is significantly different than Max's.

[smak]

Not fibbing, but talking about two totally different things. Leno's 4 month reference was to his 10 pm show, not his beginnings on The Tonight Show in 1992.

Who's failing up (other than Lane Kiffin)? Leno's ratings were gangbusters when he last hosted at 11:35. There's no reason to believe he won't be able to recapture a significant portion of that audience if/when he goes back to that timeslot. Just because NBC's idea didn't work in prime time doesn't mean Leno failed and is now tainted. He's still a great late-night host and comedian.

Jay didn't have to agree to retire in the first place. He didn't have to agree to come back, and agree to 10pm. It was his show at 10pm, and it failed.

Are you saying that doing that kind of show at 10pm was always destined to fail, or does the content of the show have something to do with it?

Don't get me wrong, 99% of this is NBC's fault. I don't fault Jay for wanting to come back, and don't fault him for taking the 10pm show when offered.

But it did fail, and when a show fails, it's usually on the creators of the show.

-smak-

[DevdogAZ]

Jay didn't have to agree to retire in the first place. He didn't have to agree to come back, and agree to 10pm. It was his show at 10pm, and it failed.

Are you saying that doing that kind of show at 10pm was always destined to fail, or does the content of the show have something to do it.

Don't get me wrong, 99% of this is NBC's fault. I don't fault Jay for wanting to come back, and don't fault him for taking the 10pm show when offered.

But it did fail, and that's on him.

-smak-
I don't know if a talk/comedy show would work at 10 pm, if things were done differently, or if it was destined to fail no matter what. Doesn't really matter.

Let me make my point by citing a similar example. Nick Saban was a great college football coach and won a national championship at LSU. He then decided he wanted a new challenge and decided to take the Miami Dolphins head coaching job in the NFL. He didn't stay there very long, and didn't have much success, but he was able to get another premiere head coaching gig in college even though he had essentially "failed" in the NFL. He just won another national championship with Alabama. The fact that his methods didn't work in the NFL didn't diminish his abilities as a college coach.

Similarly, Leno was a great late-night host. Things didn't work out for him in prime time, but that shouldn't diminish his abilities as a late-night host. The audiences are different at 10 pm and at 11:35, and apparently his schtick works in the later slot where it didn't really work in the earlier slot.

[TiVo'Brien]

Does this thread not show up in the TV Talk index for anyone else? I don't see this thead listed there. :confused:

[Bill McNeal]

My solution was to move Leno's show to 10:30pm, after local news gets the lead-in from 9PM prime-time. Both retain their hourlong shows.

I'm assuming this hasn't been implemented because affiliates want to stay on at 11pm. Of course, they could care less about Jay or Conan since the news makes more money for them.

The only failing-up I see here is Zucker. But given the current situation, NBC has to follow the money; Jay simply had better ratings than Conan. Conan didn't have as much time as Leno as Tonight Show host, and had bad lead-ins. But he's had 17 years to prepare, vs. Leno's none when he started. Also, Conan's 3-4 months of regular 10pm lead-ins weren't great.

I prefer Jay's show to Conan's. Although I wouldn't have minded shortening of his show to 30 mins (14 min monologue, 10 minute Headlines/Jaywalking/All-Stars, 6 commercials), since I don't care for segments like 10@10 or JMZ. Interestingly enough, Conan's hailed as having a lower average viewer age, but actually draws the same number of 18-49 viewers as Jay did, the difference being Jay had more older viewers to boost his overall rating. Conan's humor is nichely sophomoric, and Jay's is vanilla. But vanilla, like Jay, is the most popular year after year.

Bottom line is that Jay took one for the team in 2004 and was gracious in handing it over to Conan, even having him as his final guest. Conan's unwilling to return the favor by starting the show 30 minutes later so they can coexist. His "franchise destruction" argument is meaningless when his supposedly younger following have DVRs; we should still be able to find him even with a 30-minute bump. Regardless, his $20 million+ buyout should help salve his wounds until he gets another show that we won't watch.

[smak]

I don't know if a talk/comedy show would work at 10 pm, if things were done differently, or if it was destined to fail no matter what. Doesn't really matter.

Let me make my point by citing a similar example. Nick Saban was a great college football coach and won a national championship at LSU. He then decided he wanted a new challenge and decided to take the Miami Dolphins head coaching job in the NFL. He didn't stay there very long, and didn't have much success, but he was able to get another premiere head coaching gig in college even though he had essentially "failed" in the NFL. He just won another national championship with Alabama. The fact that his methods didn't work in the NFL didn't diminish his abilities as a college coach.

Similarly, Leno was a great late-night host. Things didn't work out for him in prime time, but that shouldn't diminish his abilities as a late-night host. The audiences are different at 10 pm and at 11:35, and apparently his schtick works in the later slot where it didn't really work in the earlier slot.


But note in your example that Nick Saban didn't get his LSU job back.

I know he wasn's still working for the same company, but still it probably never even occurred to him.

-smak-

[morac]

Does this thread not show up in the TV Talk index for anyone else? I don't see this thead listed there. :confused:

A few of the threads were merged into one, so now there's only the "Jay Leno is killing NBC" thread which is at the top.

[TiVo'Brien]

A few of the threads were merged into one, so now there's only the "Jay Leno is killing NBC" thread which is at the top.

Not for me. :(

For me this thread is missing from the index. Weird. :confused:

[marksman]

Jay didn't have to agree to retire in the first place. He didn't have to agree to come back, and agree to 10pm. It was his show at 10pm, and it failed.

Are you saying that doing that kind of show at 10pm was always destined to fail, or does the content of the show have something to do with it?

Don't get me wrong, 99% of this is NBC's fault. I don't fault Jay for wanting to come back, and don't fault him for taking the 10pm show when offered.

But it did fail, and when a show fails, it's usually on the creators of the show.

-smak-

I don't think Jay ever agreed to retire. He just went along with it. He knew they were going to give the gig to Conan. What did he care. It was five years away. He knew if he still wanted to do something he could get a job somewhere else.

NBC wanted him to retire. I doubt Jay told them:
"Don't worry about it. Sounds good to me, I am tired of doing tv and never want to do tv any longer once the 5 years is up."

He didn't have to agree to come back. He agreed to "come back" because NBC offered him a ton of money and a five night a week prime time show. If your intention had always been to continue doing tv, which there is no evidence this was not always his intention, seems silly to pass on such a lucrative offer.

So it failed at 10pm. He doesn't care. NBC was on the hook to him for a lot of money and now he gets back the show he never wanted to leave in the first place, and probably ends up with more money out of the deal.

I think that kind of show was destined to fail. I think they felt with the way some British and Australian networks have success with prime time talk shows, it might work here... but it didn't, and it is not surprising.


I think the college football analogy made is a perfect one. Everyone knows Jay is very successful and makes a lot of money with the Tonight Show, so he can go back to doing that. Just because he tried something that was significantly enough different to make it hard to carry over, and failed does not mean he still can't go back to doing that.

In an another way, take a succesful comic who goes into tv or movies. They could fail at doing that, but then they could go back to doing comedies and be as succesful as ever. Perhaps Jay even picked up some new fans at the earlier time who did not see him before.

His biggest concern now is that this whole fiasco did a lot of damage to NBC as a whole, and thus it is quite possible because of a number of factors his audience will be smaller when he goes back on the air.

Although I suspect with the hype, it will be big initially.

[JohnB1000]

They would not be paying all the money for half the work since the show has so many reruns now. More like all the money for .8 of the work :)

[DevdogAZ]

My solution was to move Leno's show to 10:30pm, after local news gets the lead-in from 9PM prime-time. Both retain their hourlong shows.

I'm assuming this hasn't been implemented because affiliates want to stay on at 11pm. Of course, they could care less about Jay or Conan since the news makes more money for them.
This hasn't been done because NBC doesn't want to trade an hour of prime time, and its associated ad revenues, for an hour of late night, with its lower revenues.
Does this thread not show up in the TV Talk index for anyone else? I don't see this thead listed there. :confused:
What "index" are you talking about? I see the thread on the front page of the Now Playing forum. Since I'm subscribed, I see it on my UserCP page. But I'm not sure what this "index" is that's being talked about. Is it something different than those two things I just mentioned?

[smak]

I think the college football analogy made is a perfect one. Everyone knows Jay is very successful and makes a lot of money with the Tonight Show, so he can go back to doing that. Just because he tried something that was significantly enough different to make it hard to carry over, and failed does not mean he still can't go back to doing that.



Saban was very succesful at LSU. Why didn't he go back to doing that?

-smak-

[DevdogAZ]

Saban was very succesful at LSU. Why didn't he go back to doing that?

-smak-
LSU didn't offer him the job. In this case, NBC did offer Leno his old job back.

But you're missing the point of the analogy. There are lots of details that are not exactly the same, that's why it's only an analogy. The point was that Saban's failure in the NFL didn't change the fact that he was still a great college coach. He didn't "fail up" as you put it. He simply went back to doing whathe was previously successful at.

Similarly, Leno was a successful late-night host. He failed as a prime-time host. No reason to suspect he won't be able to recapture his previous success as a late-night host.

[mrdbdigital]

Maybe Time Warner will step in and offer Conan a late night show on TNT. They seem to be wanting to attract a "younger, more trendy" audience with their programming. Time Warner has the deep pockets to swing a deal, and I'm sure they would enjoy doing it to spite Comcast. Conan and his staff could all move to Atlanta!

You heard it here first, from an ex-TBS staffer. :)

[TiVo'Brien]

Not for me. :(

For me this thread is missing from the index. Weird. :confused:

Problem solved. I put the original, pre-merge thead on ignore a few months ago.

D'oh! :p

[JYoung]

So I wonder if Leno moves to Conan's brand-new studio. Seems like there was some talk on here last summer that Leno's digs in Burbank had actually been sold and NBC was just leasing back that one soundstage, but that most of their west coast operations were consolidated at Universal Studios where Conan's show is shot.

If Leno doesn't move, I wonder if they'll make many changes to his set for the move to 11:35. If he does move to Conan's studio, I wonder if they'll leave it the same or change it up.

You are correct in that NBC/Universal sold off the old Burbank studio and West Coast Headquarters to consolidate at Universal.
NBC is currently renting the space for Leno's studio from the current owner.

As for the studio change, I had a similar thought myself. Not sure if they'd stay at 3000 Alameda or move to Universal.

[jk5598224]

After continuing to read this thread, I STILLL don't understand why they don't fire or suspend Leno, and give Conan a chance. I would imagine his ratings are hurt by Leno, then the news, THEN Conan. Who on earth would want to watch over two hours of a talk show (or more) a night with the news in between....

Also can''t believe they haven't fired Zucker yet. He seems to be sitting pretty still....

[smak]

You are correct in that NBC/Universal sold off the old Burbank studio and West Coast Headquarters to consolidate at Universal.
NBC is currently renting the space for Leno's studio from the current owner.

As for the studio change, I had a similar thought myself. Not sure if they'd stay at 3000 Alameda or move to Universal.

Weren't they planning on building a brand new studio off of Lankershim? Near the subway?

-smak-

[Michael S]

I think until they get this mess straightened out no one should get The Tonight Show. They should just show old Johnny Carson reruns instead.

[marksman]

I think until they get this mess straightened out no one should get The Tonight Show. They should just show old Johnny Carson reruns instead.

Funny thing is there are not many shows that are available of the early tonight show because they used to tape them, and then to save money re-use the tapes to record other stuff later on.

I was wondering earlier why some cable network or something hadn't run like all the tonight shows or something, but I think a lot of the old shows are not even available.

[Amnesia]

After continuing to read this thread, I STILLL don't understand why they don't fire or suspend Leno, and give Conan a chance.Again: if they have a choice between Leno (who has proven he can beat Letterman head-to-head) and Conan (who, at best, has not proven that) why would they go with Conan?

This is business. It's not about giving people "chances"...

[Michael S]

Funny thing is there are not many shows that are available of the early tonight show because they used to tape them, and then to save money re-use the tapes to record other stuff later on.

I was wondering earlier why some cable network or something hadn't run like all the tonight shows or something, but I think a lot of the old shows are not even available.

I think Bravo or CNBC one of them use to show old Carson way back then. I know that Reelz Channel does Carson Comedy Classics at 6pm cst.

[terpfan1980]

Not that I'm wishing this, but I think it would be incredibly ironic if Leno was struck ill soon after he gets the show back leaving no proven talent to be the host of The Tonite Show (assuming NBC lets Conan leave).


To get back more into the spirit of the discussion something that the Leno lovers and/or defenders are missing is that while Leno had been winning against Letterman both Leno and Letterman have been getting older along with their audiences. NBC may find themselves looking back with hindsight and cursing the day that they again choose to go with their man and keep Leno as they get back some ratings but then find themselves with the problem of the audience aging away on them.

Finally, there's no guarantee that the Leno audience even sticks around if he does go back to 11:35. Yeah, yeah, I know they were there before and that some percentage stuck with him in the 10pm time frame, but that audience was slowly but surely dropping as well. If he was left on the air at 10pm it's possible he'd have driven all but the most diehard of fans away from himself and NBC. (Some would say that had already been happening). While Conan wasn't picking up any audience himself, and was probably dropping back down near his core numbers, as has been pointed out by some here he had a pretty weak line-up ahead of him. NBC was broken long before they tried to put Conan in at 11:35 and without a healthy prime time line-up it wasn't very likely Conan was going to be able to draw in new fans. Yeah, he probably lost Leno viewers who didn't care for his style and weren't willing to give the young whipper-snapper a chance, but eventually they might come back. (They may come back for Leno now, but as some come back the Coco fans are likely to be leaving and following their guy elsewhere.)

[kmccbf]

My wife just "discovered" Leno. She always falls asleep before the tonight show came on and didn't want to Tivo just to see if she might like it. I tend to watch the earlier show more as well, just because she likes it. I like the tonight show format better though.

But I think that Conan would do well with the tonight show if he re-vamps it a bit, like Leno did and make it more his own. Personally, I would rather see Leno do a prime time weekend show.

[IJustLikeTivo]

I was having a discussion over dinner IRL and one thing that hasn't been mentioned is that the folks really getting a raw deal are Conan's staff. Many of them uprooted, sold houses, bought new ones, moved kids, kit and kaboodle and now they're out of work. That my friends is a considerably nasty deal. Whatever happens Conan and Jay both have more money than they need and will get more in some fashion, but the staffs of both shows are worse off and Conan's the worse of the two. Crappy outcome for being loyal to their boss.

[Amnesia]

Crappy outcome for being loyal to their boss.Yes. But who's to blame? NBC for wanting Conan to move timeslots ("not giving him a chance") or Conan for refusing to move and thereby pretty much ensuring his own ouster?

[IJustLikeTivo]

Yes. But who's to blame? NBC for wanting Conan to move timeslots ("not giving him a chance") or Conan for refusing to move and thereby pretty much ensuring his own ouster?

I make no claim about it in my post but I said what I think earlier. Regardless a crappy way to start a year.

[MickeS]

I was having a discussion over dinner IRL and one thing that hasn't been mentioned is that the folks really getting a raw deal are Conan's staff. Many of them uprooted, sold houses, bought new ones, moved kids, kit and kaboodle and now they're out of work. That my friends is a considerably nasty deal. Whatever happens Conan and Jay both have more money than they need and will get more in some fashion, but the staffs of both shows are worse off and Conan's the worse of the two. Crappy outcome for being loyal to their boss.

I agree. But maybe they were behind Conan in all of this too.

Looking at it from the outside, I have to say it seems a little dumb for Conan to be so adamant about the 11:35 spot...

[mrdbdigital]

I was having a discussion over dinner IRL and one thing that hasn't been mentioned is that the folks really getting a raw deal are Conan's staff. Many of them uprooted, sold houses, bought new ones, moved kids, kit and kaboodle and now they're out of work. That my friends is a considerably nasty deal. Whatever happens Conan and Jay both have more money than they need and will get more in some fashion, but the staffs of both shows are worse off and Conan's the worse of the two. Crappy outcome for being loyal to their boss.

Not at all unusual in the television industry. I think Conan will take care of them, if he is a man of honor.

And it was mentioned earlier in the thread, where I mentioned that if Conan moved to a new network, he would probably make it a condition of his employment that the new network take care of his staff. That's also fairly common at these levels.

[Neenahboy]

Maybe Time Warner will step in and offer Conan a late night show on TNT. They seem to be wanting to attract a "younger, more trendy" audience with their programming. Time Warner has the deep pockets to swing a deal, and I'm sure they would enjoy doing it to spite Comcast. Conan and his staff could all move to Atlanta!

You heard it here first, from an ex-TBS staffer. :)

Never gonna happen.

They've gone to great pains to ensure that TBS is thought of as "very funny" and TNT as a channel that "knows drama." There's no way they would change that dynamic, and there's also no way they'd give him TBS and cannibalize Lopez Tonight.

[mrdbdigital]

Never gonna happen.

They've gone to great pains to ensure that TBS is thought of as "very funny" and TNT as a channel that "knows drama." There's no way they would change that dynamic, and there's also no way they'd give him TBS and cannibalize Lopez Tonight.

Naw, they wouldn't pass up a chance to be able to air Conan in "Stretch-O-Vision". :eek:

They have some executives at the Turner networks that are about as flakey as Zucker at NBC. You never know what they might do. They don't consider TBS and TNT to be in competition since they program them completely differently. There's no over riding reason why TNT couldn't air a late night comedy block if they wanted to.

[mrdazzo7]

Wait is Jay Leno's show moving to 11:35, or is he actually resuming control of "The Tonight Show" itself.... confused...

[Turtleboy]

Wait is Jay Leno's show moving to 11:35, or is he actually resuming control of "The Tonight Show" itself.... confused...

Nothing has officially been announced yet, but it looks like he's taking the Tonight Show back.

[mrdbdigital]

Wait is Jay Leno's show moving to 11:35, or is he actually resuming control of "The Tonight Show" itself.... confused...

They are reporting here: http://www.tmz.com/2010/01/14/jay-leno-conan-obrien-nbc-the-tonight-show/ that Leno is re-taking The Tonight Show at 11:35PM.

[Langree]

I think Kimmel is slamming Jay on the 10 @ 10.

:)

[mattack]

I don't think you can really compare it to Carson, though. He was really the only one doing late-night comedy, so people just got comfortable turning on NBC after the news.

Is that true? I'm not old enough, but I thought some other comedians (including previous hosts of the Tonight Show) tried going against Johnny way back when.. (i.e. 60s)

Also, a tangential question. Was Letterman the first post-TS talk show? (Oh wait, there was the Tomorrow show, which IMDB says started in 1973.. Was that the first?)

[LoadStar]

I think Kimmel is slamming Jay on the 10 @ 10.

:)

Yeah, that was a bit uncomfortable. Not only was he doing so directly in front of Jay, he wasn't being very funny.

Of course, the satellite thing didn't help, because that added in a delay, And as you know, half of comedy is














timing. ;)

[Langree]

Yeah, that was a bit uncomfortable. Not only was he doing so directly in front of Jay, he wasn't being very funny.

Of course, the satellite thing didn't help, because that added in a delay, And as you know, half of comedy is














timing. ;)

I liked it and it took balls for Kimmel to do it.

[marksman]

Kimmel is a big fan of Jay and very friendly with him. They know each other fairly well. Any making fun of certainly was not likely meant with the intent to harm.

I actually taped Leno tonight because Kimmel was on there. Heck Jimmy did his whole show as Jay the other night. From everything I have heard though, Jimmy is a big fan of Jay, and likes him a lot.

[Neenahboy]

http://losangeles.craigslist.org/sfv/clt/1551463643.html

:D

[Langree]

http://losangeles.craigslist.org/sfv/clt/1551463643.html

:D

just saw that.. awesome!

[DVC California]

Found this clip of Letterman dropping in on Conan's 3rd Anniversary at Late Nite. Kinda prophetic.

http://www.youtube.com/user/TalkVid#p/u/148/-VEiCeMSZP4

[aindik]

This hasn't been done because NBC doesn't want to trade an hour of prime time, and its associated ad revenues, for an hour of late night, with its lower revenues.

By putting Jay Leno on at 10 p.m., that's exactly what they decided they wanted to do.

Ad revenue in prime time isn't higher because it's prime time. It's higher because more people are watching. When more people aren't watching (because you're showing a late night show getting late night ratings), you make the same money you make in late night.

Jay Leno drawing Jay Leno numbers is going to generate Jay Leno revenue, no matter when he's on.

[DevdogAZ]

By putting Jay Leno on at 10 p.m., that's exactly what they decided they wanted to do.

Ad revenue in prime time isn't higher because it's prime time. It's higher because more people are watching. When more people aren't watching (because you're showing a late night show getting late night ratings), you make the same money you make in late night.

Jay Leno drawing Jay Leno numbers is going to generate Jay Leno revenue, no matter when he's on.
That's apparent now, but a year ago NBC apparently thought it was a good move. Either way, I don't think they anticipated that ad revenues for a prime time show would be as low as a late night show (and I'm not sure they were).

[MickeS]

I just noticed that Jay had better ratings than his lead-in "Heroes" did on Monday.

[aindik]

That's apparent now, but a year ago NBC apparently thought it was a good move. Either way, I don't think they anticipated that ad revenues for a prime time show would be as low as a late night show (and I'm not sure they were).

I'm not talking about the results. I'm talking about the decision at the time. Back then, the decision they made was to put a late night show in prime time, and then predict that it would get late night ratings.

[smak]

Jay to Conan on his ratings spike the few days leading up to the day he loses his dream job.

"You're welcome"

-smak-

[DevdogAZ]

I'm not talking about the results. I'm talking about the decision at the time. Back then, the decision they made was to put a late night show in prime time, and then predict that it would get late night ratings.
I still don't believe that they really thought the show would get the 1.5 ratings they claim they were OK with. I think the people who made this decision really thought they had a genius idea on their hands and that there was some pent up demand for something other than crime procedural and soap operas at 10 pm. I don't think the people who ultimately made that decision honestly thought the ratings would be so low. If they did, I don't think they'd have made that decision.

[JYoung]

I just noticed that Jay had better ratings than his lead-in "Heroes" did on Monday.

I believe that's more indicative of how poorly Heroes is doing, not how well Leno is.

Apparently, Heroes' ratings dropped like a concrete block on Jupiter this week.

[MickeS]

I believe that's more indicative of how poorly Heroes is doing, not how well Leno is.

Apparently, Heroes' ratings dropped like a concrete block on Jupiter this week.

Oh, I agree. But just to put it into perspective - while Leno's ratings are low, it's not like he's miles behind everything else in prime time every night, which is almost the impression one gets while reading about it. Leno has also beaten ABCs "the forgotten" several times, IIRC.

[aindik]

Kimmel on Leno's show:
Leno asked him to describe the best prank he ever pulled. Kimmel answered: "I told a guy that five years from now, I'm going to give you my show. Then when the five years came, I took it back almost instantly."

http://nymag.com/daily/entertainment/2010/01/jimmy_kimmel_represents_team_c.html#ixzz0cf5DE91M

[MickeS]

I watched that 10@10 interview with Kimmel. Leno seemed pretty good-natured about the whole thing. I didn't think it was as described in the blurb above. Certainly, Jay would have expected it, based on Kimmel last night.

[smak]

Oh, I agree. But just to put it into perspective - while Leno's ratings are low, it's not like he's miles behind everything else in prime time every night, which is almost the impression one gets while reading about it. Leno has also beaten ABCs "the forgotten" several times, IIRC.

Yah, but a lot of basic cable stuff has beaten him as well.

I don't think he'd get the same advertising dollars another show would get even with the same overall ratings, because of the demographics.

-smak-

[marksman]

I watched that 10@10 interview with Kimmel. Leno seemed pretty good-natured about the whole thing. I didn't think it was as described in the blurb above. Certainly, Jay would have expected it, based on Kimmel last night.

Yeah I just watched it. Didn't seem mean spirited at all. Jimmy is just very direct and won't beat around the bush, even about touchy subjects. So he laid it into Jay a bit.

I do think the satellite aspect threw off the timing a bit, but I don't think it was bad, nor do I think Jay was upset about it.

[marksman]

I believe that's more indicative of how poorly Heroes is doing, not how well Leno is.

Apparently, Heroes' ratings dropped like a concrete block on Jupiter this week.


This is one of the side-effects of going for a smaller audience to essentially make the same or smaller profit, and I have said it all along. Advertising to your own viewers is worth a lot to a network. By repeating the same show 5 nights a week you reduce the overall viewerbase of the network substantially.

I suspect 85% of leno's audience is the same people every night. That would not be the same of 5 different dramas, even if they had the same ratings. This means less overall exposure not only for advertisers, but for your own in house advertising.

All of a sudden running promos of a show like Heroes, is now reaching a much smaller audience.

[JYoung]

Weren't they planning on building a brand new studio off of Lankershim? Near the subway?

-smak-

You are correct. Right next to/over the Metro Station.
IIRC, they are supposed to be new studios for KNBC NEWS.

[Michelle5150]

Kimmel is a big fan of Jay and very friendly with him. They know each other fairly well. Any making fun of certainly was not likely meant with the intent to harm.

I actually taped Leno tonight because Kimmel was on there. Heck Jimmy did his whole show as Jay the other night. From everything I have heard though, Jimmy is a big fan of Jay, and likes him a lot.

Jimmy Kimmel is a HUGE Letterman fan. Has been his whole life according to Adam Carolla (who talked about it recently.) I don't know how much Jimmy likes or dislikes Leno, but there's no question that he's a much bigger fan of Dave.

I'm certain that his 10@10 answers were a bit of a bitch slap to Leno. Light-hearted perhaps, and all in good fun, but still meant to sting a bit.

[ewolfr]

http://losangeles.craigslist.org/sfv/clt/1551463643.html

:D

Since it got flagged already here is the text of the ad:

http://gawker.com/5448803/did-nbc-remove-conans-tonight-show-craigslist-ad

[Mike10]

Jimmy Kimmel is a HUGE Letterman fan. Has been his whole life according to Adam Carolla (who talked about it recently.) I don't know how much Jimmy likes or dislikes Leno, but there's no question that he's a much bigger fan of Dave.

I'm certain that his 10@10 answers were a bit of a bitch slap to Leno. Light-hearted perhaps, and all in good fun, but still meant to sting a bit.


Apparently Jimmy and Jay have become really good friends

[aaronwt]

This is one of the side-effects of going for a smaller audience to essentially make the same or smaller profit, and I have said it all along. Advertising to your own viewers is worth a lot to a network. By repeating the same show 5 nights a week you reduce the overall viewerbase of the network substantially.

I suspect 85% of leno's audience is the same people every night. That would not be the same of 5 different dramas, even if they had the same ratings. This means less overall exposure not only for advertisers, but for your own in house advertising.

All of a sudden running promos of a show like Heroes, is now reaching a much smaller audience.

But that is by no means the reason Heroes ratings are in the crapper.
I'm surprised that Heroes hasn't been canceled yet. I certainly don't expect it to return next year.

[terpfan1980]

But that is by no means the reason Heroes ratings are in the crapper.
I'm surprised that Heroes hasn't been canceled yet. I certainly don't expect it to return next year.

I'm probably smeeking, but it should be noted that IIRC there was news that Heroes was already picked up for next year (which surprised me too).

[Amnesia]

IIRC there was news that Heroes was already picked up for next yearI don't think so.

Here's information posted on The Futon Critic (http://www.thefutoncritic.com/news.aspx?id=8462) 10 January from the TCA Winter Press Tour:
"Heroes" creator Tim Kring is currently pitching the network his ideas for a fifth season. Production however has already been completed on season four so a definitive conclusion won't be possible if it is canceled.
That definitely sounds like no decision had been made as of a week ago.

[DevdogAZ]

Jimmy Kimmel is a HUGE Letterman fan. Has been his whole life according to Adam Carolla (who talked about it recently.) I don't know how much Jimmy likes or dislikes Leno, but there's no question that he's a much bigger fan of Dave.

I'm certain that his 10@10 answers were a bit of a bitch slap to Leno. Light-hearted perhaps, and all in good fun, but still meant to sting a bit.
That's true. Adam says that Jimmy had a Late Night jacket when he was a teenager and it was his most prized possession, and that Jimmy was furious when Adam was asked to be a guest on The Late Show before Jimmy was.

But I still didn't think the comments Jimmy made were mean spirited. They were like a roast, where you tweak the guest of honor, and it might hit a little close to home, but it's not meant to make anyone mad. I can't imagine that Jay didn't expect exactly what happened.

[Amnesia]

Leno seemed a little upset to me---his smile looked very strained...

[5thcrewman]

Leno seemed a little upset to me---his smile looked very strained...

You would too- with Zucker's head up your ass!

[DevdogAZ]

According to theNY Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/15/business/media/15conan.html?partner=rss&emc=rss) via TVbythenumbers (http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/01/14/an-astounding-failure-by-conan-nbc-goes-scorched-earth-on-obrien/39023), NBC is going scorched earth and blaming this whole thing on Conan's failure.

Dick Ebersol, chairman of NBC Universal Sports, said the reason for Mr. Leno’s return to NBC’s late-night roster after a short stint in prime time this season was a simple one: disappointing ratings for Conan O’Brien’s “Tonight Show.”

Referring to the pointed jokes made this week by Mr. O’Brien and David Letterman of CBS, Mr. Ebersol said it was “chicken-hearted and gutless to blame a guy you couldn’t beat in the ratings.”

He added that “what this is really all about is an astounding failure by Conan.”


Now I'm as big of Leno supporter as there is, but even I think that's weak and chicken[bleep] by NBC. This whole mess is NBC's fault, plain and simple, and they wouldn't be dealing with it right now if Leno's ratings hadn't been so bad as to stir up an affiliate revolt. Conan's numbers might not have been great, but absent the Leno failure in prime time, NBC would have left him alone for a while. I sure hope it turns out those quotes by Dick Ebersol are falsely attributed, because that's just unconscionable in my book.

[JYoung]

Ebersol's obviously backing Zucker as he knows what side his bread is buttered on.

I do have to agree that O'Brien is getting the shaft here.

[marksman]

Why NBC is full of massive dicks.

Why are they all attacking Conan... what a bunch of tools.

[marksman]

I think some of you are not aware how Jimmy treats his friends.

[terpfan1980]

Why NBC is full of massive dicks.

Why are they all attacking Conan... what a bunch of tools.

See above. They're going scorched Earth hoping to damage Coco before he jumps ship over to a competitor.

I really, really hope he does jump and that Leno NEVER regains his former audience. I'd love to see Conan come out as the #1 guy in late night. :up:

As to NBC, were it not for Chuck they'd be dead to me after flushing Conan. :mad:

[timckelley]

Law and Order: SVC is the only show I regularly/consistently watch from NBC. But since I have TiVo, I don't watch any of the commercials, so I guess NBC isn't making any money off of me.

[DevdogAZ]

Another interesting quote from the NY Times article:

Mr. Ebersol said Mr. Leno had not pushed for any of the changes, not the original decision to guarantee Mr. O’Brien the show five years in advance, nor the plan to put Mr. Leno in prime time.

“Jeff and I are big boys,” Mr. Ebersol said, referring to Mr. Zucker. “When we do something big in the public forum and it doesn’t succeed, we know we’ll be the butt of criticism. But you don’t personally attack someone who hasn’t done anything.” In this case, he added, “we bet on the wrong guy.”

Whether we can actually take Ebersol at his word is a different story, but if so, this seems to support the argument that Leno had nothing to do with the poor decisions NBC has made to get into this mess and shouldn't be blamed for the current situation (other than the failure of his prime time show).

[Langree]

Another interesting quote from the NY Times article:



Whether we can actually take Ebersol at his word is a different story, but if so, this seems to support the argument that Leno had nothing to do with the poor decisions NBC has made to get into this mess and shouldn't be blamed for the current situation (other than the failure of his prime time show).

Or while trying to damage Conan they are going full tilt damage control on Jay. Which is my bet.

[netringer]

See above. They're going scorched Earth hoping to damage Coco before he jumps ship over to a competitor.

I really, really hope he does jump and that Leno NEVER regains his former audience. I'd love to see Conan come out as the #1 guy in late night. :up:...

Remember I'm he one who predicted that Conan was gonna walk? Dave is going to absolutely SMOKE Jay in the ratings when Jay gets back on 11:35. If Conan gets on Fox he'll help with the effort. Then we can see who NBC will blame when Jay's ratings are too small to measure. Comcast is gonna clean house of all these NBC execs and give nice golden parachutes.

You know, us TiVo guys could remove NBC from our favorites and they'd soon know that. :rolleyes:

[terpfan1980]

Or while trying to damage Conan they are going full tilt damage control on Jay. Which is my bet.

I think that's a pretty intuitive look at things. At this point NBC (and it's brass) really needs to keep the team Coco folks from hating on Jay Leno for what's gone down, even if he was behind it all along or at the very least complicit in what's gone down. That said, I really doubt their efforts are going to amount to much as the team Coco folks are likely going to carry one heckuva grudge against NBC/Leno for some time to come.

[JYoung]

I think that's a pretty intuitive look at things. At this point NBC (and it's brass) really needs to keep the team Coco folks from hating on Jay Leno for what's gone down, even if he was behind it all along or at the very least complicit in what's gone down. That said, I really doubt their efforts are going to amount to much as the team Coco folks are likely going to carry one heckuva grudge against NBC/Leno for some time to come.

I think you seriously overestimate the power of the "Team Coco" folks.

[terpfan1980]

I think you seriously overestimate the power of the "Team Coco" folks.

No, as I don't expect that anything the Team Coco folks do will change the minds of anyone at NBC and I don't expect they'll make that big a difference in Leno's ratings (assuming he takes back Tonite which is what appears will happen), but it'll make a little difference as there will be a core of Conan folks that won't support NBC/The Tonite Show thanks to this mess.

I would *hope* that it would make a big difference and really blow up in NBC's face, but I don't expect that it will.

[MickeS]

Dave is going to absolutely SMOKE Jay in the ratings when Jay gets back on 11:35.

Why? Did Dave's show get better?

[jilter]

Whatever it is, it is great entertainment right now.
They could not have paid enough to get writers to write anything this good.
I enjoyed this page from tv.Gawker.com (http://tv.gawker.com/5446744/late-night-mayhem-as-conan-obrien-and-everyone-else-turns-on-nbc-all-the-clips-you-missed)...lots of great clips in one spot.

Jeff Zucker is definitely going down big time, and it sounds like deservedly so.

[netringer]

Why? Did Dave's show get better?

Yeah. Dave because is the one who didn't get caught up in this SNAFU.

BTW, I thought the word was that Jay and Dave were still friends going back to when they both were on the stand-up comedy circuits. Guess not.

"The Late Shift" had Jay visiting Dave's office backstage right before he took over Tonight as Bob Morton says so Jay can hear, "We confirmed Marlon Brando(?) for Monday." And Jay says, You a*!"

[Amnesia]

"The Late Shift" had Jay visiting Dave's office backstage right before he took over (...)Oh, well then I guess it must be true...

[marksman]

I doubt many people on Team Coco watched Leno to begin with...

I have always been a Conan fan, but I am not on "Team Coco". I think NBC screwed both of them around. I will not watch Jay's show, because I never did. Conan is one of the late night shows that I will still sometimes watch, along with JKL. Really though, I don't watch any of them anymore regularly. If Conan goes somewhere else, I will occasionally watch him there, because he is entertaining.

I think Letterman used to be the best thing ever 20+ years ago. Now I could no more enjoy his show than I enjoy watching Leno. However I have no ill feelings towards any of them, and I will certainly try to punish NBC when I can, but I didn't watch Leno before and won't now.

I don't any of this will impact Leno's ratings. I think he will get a bump when he goes back on, then his ratings will settle in slightly down from where they were when he left, because networks continue to lose audiences.

If Conan ends up against him, then that is more erosion.

I think NBC has now done the right thing by Jay putting him back in the Tonight Show where he wanted to be. Sure Conan wanted to be there too, and I feel bad for him, but at least NBC needs to let him pursue other opportunities and stop bashing him the press.

NBC seems to be filled with petulant children for execs. I really wonder what the Comcast people are thinking about all this.

[TriBruin]

Yeah. Dave because is the one who didn't get caught up in this SNAFU.

BTW, I thought the word was that Jay and Dave were still friends going back to when they both were on the stand-up comedy circuits. Guess not.

"The Late Shift" had Jay visiting Dave's office backstage right before he took over Tonight as Bob Morton says so Jay can hear, "We confirmed Marlon Brando(?) for Monday." And Jay says, You a*!"

So you think that a large group of former Jay viewers will defect to Dave? I highly doubt it.

[smak]

I think you seriously overestimate the power of the "Team Coco" folks.

There are the "Team Coco" folks and then everybody else. I think both mostly think Conan got screwed.

Whether that means anything in the long run, we'll find out.

When your name is in the title of the show, it's not a good idea to have the public not like you.

And I think a lot of people with regards to Leno are saying, "again?"

-smak-

[lambertman]

Oh, well then I guess it must be true...

Has Jay ever denied it?

[smak]

Oh, well then I guess it must be true...

When most everything else in the book has been confirmed by all parties, why would you doubt it?

-smak-

[bicker]

It doesn't make sense to assume that the total audience at 10PM is big enough to sustain three major broadcast networks, plus all the other new diversions that have been introduced over the past decade. This return of the 10PM slot to scripted programming is almost surely temporary IMHO -- there is a reason why they tried to put Leno there, and what has happened has not eliminated the original reason why this was tried in the first place.

[busyba]

All I know is I'm looking forward to the made-for-HBO movie about all of this that is going to come out in a few years.

The main questions are: will they get the same guys who played Jay and Dave in The Late Shift (Daniel Roebuck and John Michael Higgins) to reprise their roles and who will play Conan? :)

[aindik]

All I know is I'm looking forward to the made-for-HBO movie about all of this that is going to come out in a few years.

The main questions are: will they get the same guys who played Jay and Dave in The Late Shift (Daniel Roebuck and John Michael Higgins) to reprise their roles and who will play Conan? :)

See the first Craig Ferguson clip here:
http://tv.gawker.com/5446744/late-night-mayhem-as-conan-obrien-and-everyone-else-turns-on-nbc-all-the-clips-you-missed

[busyba]

See the first Craig Ferguson clip here:
http://tv.gawker.com/5446744/late-night-mayhem-as-conan-obrien-and-everyone-else-turns-on-nbc-all-the-clips-you-missed

Heh, that's great. :)

NBC should tell Jay and Conan to both take a hike and poach Craig from CBS for their 11:30 slot. :D

[5thcrewman]

... This return of the 10PM slot to scripted programming is almost surely temporary IMHO -- there is a reason why they tried to put Leno there, and what has happened has not eliminated the original reason why this was tried in the first place.

Greed.


Everyone else is able to make money at 10.
NBC wanted to try and make more.

[smak]

Hmmm, Conan to get a large payout with no non compete clause?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-01-14/conans-exit-confirmed/?cid=sexybeast:mainpromo1

Seems like that contract wasn't as straightforward as people thought.

-smak-

[TiVo'Brien]

Hmmm, Conan to get a large payout with no non compete clause?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-01-14/conans-exit-confirmed/?cid=sexybeast:mainpromo1

Seems like that contract wasn't as straightforward as people thought.

-smak-I really hope Conan's staff gets a slice of the NBC going-away pie, too. Realistically, Conan probably already has a chunk of money in the bank, unlike many of the lesser-paid people I would imagine.

[bicker]

Greed.That's silly. Just because people want to make the best return on their investments doesn't mean it is greed.

Everyone else is able to make money at 10.That's not true as categorically applied as you implied. Fox and CW gives 10PM to their affiliates. That might be the best thing for NBC to do as well. It doesn't make sense to assume that the total audience at 10PM is big enough to sustain three major broadcast networks, plus all the other new diversions that have been introduced over the past decade.

NBC wanted to try and make more.And there is no reason to think that they will stop trying to best serve their owners' best long-term financial interests.

[aindik]

Hmmm, Conan to get a large payout with no non compete clause?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-01-14/conans-exit-confirmed/?cid=sexybeast:mainpromo1

Seems like that contract wasn't as straightforward as people thought.

-smak-

To be fair, that article doesn't say that there won't be a non-compete clause. Just that it won't last as long as his original contract is.

Which is fine with Conan, because Fox couldn't get him on the air all that quickly anyway.

[terpfan1980]

Hmmm, Conan to get a large payout with no non compete clause?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-01-14/conans-exit-confirmed/?cid=sexybeast:mainpromo1

Seems like that contract wasn't as straightforward as people thought.

-smak-

I read that information earlier and found it interesting. I'm still curious of whether or not he is giving up some of the large payout to avoid the non-compete (which is what I expected he might have to do) or if NBC's suits and lawyers screwed up that badly in writing the contract. Either way, if he's able to leave and go elsewhere and compete then good for him. While I have hopes it happens and he goes to FOX (and takes his production team with him), I know it's going to take a while before anything really happens.

[aindik]

Hulu has a compilation of 22 clips from Leno, Conan and Jimmy Kimmel over the past few days related to this mess, including the entire "Kimmel as Leno" show.

http://www.hulu.com/collections/360/120431

[5thcrewman]

That's silly. Just because people want to make the best return on their investments doesn't mean it is greed.

That's not true as categorically applied as you implied. Fox and CW gives 10PM to their affiliates. That might be the best thing for NBC to do as well. It doesn't make sense to assume that the total audience at 10PM is big enough to sustain three major broadcast networks, plus all the other new diversions that have been introduced over the past decade.

And there is no reason to think that they will stop trying to best serve their owners' best long-term financial interests.


I should have been clearer in that I was refering to the 'Big 3' at 10pm.
Fox and CW are not an issue at 10 and the West Coast doesn't need to watch USA or TNT at 10pm. (Their shows are already in the DVR by 8pm PST)

[smak]

I read that information earlier and found it interesting. I'm still curious of whether or not he is giving up some of the large payout to avoid the non-compete (which is what I expected he might have to do) or if NBC's suits and lawyers screwed up that badly in writing the contract. Either way, if he's able to leave and go elsewhere and compete then good for him. While I have hopes it happens and he goes to FOX (and takes his production team with him), I know it's going to take a while before anything really happens.

I would think so. But I don't think he can reasonably get another show going for about a year. So if say the non compete were 2 years, that would be 1 year of salary, at what, 10-15 million? Maybe more if he gets to own his show, so I would think he would give up part of his buyout.

That is if NBC can realistically assert a non compete clause, which we don't know they can.

-smak-

[daveak]

http://losangeles.craigslist.org/sfv/clt/1551463643.html

:D

I went ahead and made an offer. I will let you all know if I get the show. :D

[jimborst]

I think it took Dave 6 months to move from NBC to CBS, I think Conan could do about the same, if Fox would let him.

[terpfan1980]

I think it took Dave 6 months to move from NBC to CBS, I think Conan could do about the same, if Fox would let him.

Yeah, if FOX wants Conan I'd be guessing they won't have a show for him up and running until Fall 2010, but of course that would give them and him plenty of time to promote the bejeezus out of the show (and would also give the affiliates plenty of time to adjust to/accept the idea of losing the hour or so of syndicated programming in the time slot). FOX *should* be able to work out a deal with Conan and the affiliates that would make everyone happy (mostly by giving up a lot of the potential profits for the ad time and instead letting the affiliates have most of the revenue for the first year or two as the show ramps up). Something like a co-op deal between the net and the affiliates that lets everyone share in the potential profits and yet puts most of the risk squarely on the network for the costs of getting the show up and running.

Like others have said here though, I'm not sure I'd bet that FOX really wants to jump into latenight again (or try to again), but then again if they really think that Conan can bring them an audience without having to spend too much to get it, they'd be foolish if they didn't at least try to take advantage of the gift that would seem to be available to them.

[busyba]

(and would also give the affiliates plenty of time to adjust to/accept the idea of losing the hour or so of syndicated programming in the time slot). FOX *should* be able to work out a deal with Conan and the affiliates that would make everyone happy

IIRC, elsewhere in this thread somebody mentioned that the partnership agreement that Fox has with its affiliates already has language in it that says the network can choose to use the late night slot for network programming if it wants to. It's just that Fox hasn't exercized that option yet.

[terpfan1980]

IIRC, elsewhere in this thread somebody mentioned that the partnership agreement that Fox has with its affiliates already has language in it that says the network can choose to use the late night slot for network programming if it wants to. It's just that Fox hasn't exercized that option yet.

Just because they can exercise the option and run roughshod over the affiliates doesn't mean that it wouldn't be smart to work with the affiliates first and give them the heads up on what's coming as well as perhaps offer them something to keep them happy and onboard with the plans of the mothership. If FOX works with the affil's rather than just tellin' 'em what they have to do they'd get more cooperation and hopefully get a better result from it.

[MickeS]

I know nothing about it, but I imagine a lot of affiliates make a rather comfy profit off of Family Guy, Simpsons, Seinfeld etc reruns in the late night slots. I would think it would be a rather risky proposition to put Conan in that slot. Not that they couldn't give it a shot, and it might earn them some prestige I suppose. Maybe it would even help their local news some.

[marksman]

IIRC, elsewhere in this thread somebody mentioned that the partnership agreement that Fox has with its affiliates already has language in it that says the network can choose to use the late night slot for network programming if it wants to. It's just that Fox hasn't exercized that option yet.

Yeah that was me and that info was in an article where they had interviewed Kevin Reilly at Fox. He was the one that was making comments about Conan, that people were getting suspicious about.

He did also say along the lines though, it has been a tough time for our affiliates lately, so we obviously would not want to do anything that would hurt them. Or to that effect.

I think it was more of a dig at NBC, though, then necessarily saying they would not bring Conan in if they could strike the right deal. Speculation has been even if ABC or Fox did bring in Conan, it would take at least a year for a show to be put together.

[marksman]

To be fair, that article doesn't say that there won't be a non-compete clause. Just that it won't last as long as his original contract is.

Which is fine with Conan, because Fox couldn't get him on the air all that quickly anyway.

Yeah but regardless of what the contract says, you can't have a no-compete clause without consideration.


You can't just say, "You can't compete for 4 years because we say so." That is not a valid contract, no matter how many times both parties sign it.

There would have to be consideration given to make it valid.


As for that article, the interesting part to me is the knucklehead NBC execs still had to be dragged kicking and screaming to let go of their most recent dumb idea of thinking they could force conan to move 30 minutes back and everything would be fine.

So at the end of the day they will have Leno doing the tonight show and Conan somewhere else. Which is exactly what would have happened 6 years ago if they just told Conan, sorry. But, they would not have managed to decimate the network in the process. So I guess this way to the same end result was more fun?

[marksman]

And there is no reason to think that they will stop trying to best serve their owners' best long-term financial interests.

Well this whole folly certainly did that, and again everyone except you and the NBC execs knew that from the word go.

They lost money and harmed their network to a serious degree and it is going to take a lot of work to dig it out and get back to where they were and then also to make up the money they lost.

Genius plan you have supported.

[DevdogAZ]

Hmmm, Conan to get a large payout with no non compete clause?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-01-14/conans-exit-confirmed/?cid=sexybeast:mainpromo1

Seems like that contract wasn't as straightforward as people thought.

-smak-
I don't think you can infer that from the story, or from the fact that NBC is paying off Conan. I'm one of the ones that was pretty adamant that, based on the information we had, NBC had the legal right to force Conan to move to 12:05 and that his refusal to do so was a breach of contract. However, I was also fairly sure this would end up with NBC paying Conan to walk away rather than forcing him to work against his will or suing him for breach. It just makes way more sense from a business and PR standpoint to simply end this deal and let everyone go their own way, and the only way Conan and his staff can justify that is to accept a settlement.

[DevdogAZ]

Yeah but regardless of what the contract says, you can't have a no-compete clause without consideration.


You can't just say, "You can't compete for 4 years because we say so." That is not a valid contract, no matter how many times both parties sign it.

There would have to be consideration given to make it valid.
Sure, but I don't think the consideration for the non-compete has to be something in addition to the consideration for the rest of the employment contract. Usually, the non-compete clause is part of the employment contract, and the wages the employee earns are the consideration. There doesn't have to be something additional when the employee terminates employment in order to activate the non-compete portion of the contract.

[aindik]

IIRC, elsewhere in this thread somebody mentioned that the partnership agreement that Fox has with its affiliates already has language in it that says the network can choose to use the late night slot for network programming if it wants to. It's just that Fox hasn't exercized that option yet.

I'd imagine NBC has a similar agreement with its affiliates - that they have to run whatever NBC puts on at 10 p.m. We see how that worked out.

As others have said, sometimes it makes long term business sense to not exercise all of your rights.

[Turtleboy]

I would suspect that Fox's contract with its affiliates may be subject to the already existing contracts. I know that syndication deals can last 2-3 years. So even if Fox brought in Conan, you'd still have 2 more years of Friends/Home Improvement.

[Langree]

Well this whole folly certainly did that, and again everyone except you and the NBC execs knew that from the word go.

They lost money and harmed their network to a serious degree and it is going to take a lot of work to dig it out and get back to where they were and then also to make up the money they lost.

Genius plan you have supported.

But remember, Bicker knows business.

[morac]

Someone posted a link on twitter to this NY Times article from 1992 with Jay complaining that he might get replaced by Dave. The decide by date was the same, but with a different outcome.

http://www.nytimes.com/1992/12/23/arts/jay-leno-criticizes-nbc-on-tonight-cliffhanger.html

[aindik]

I would suspect that Fox's contract with its affiliates may be subject to the already existing contracts. I know that syndication deals can last 2-3 years. So even if Fox brought in Conan, you'd still have 2 more years of Friends/Home Improvement.

I would guess the syndication agreements give the stations lots of leeway as to time slot.

Sometimes (at least in radio, might be in TV, too) the syndicators don't even care if you run the show, as long as you pay the fee and run the syndicator's commercials.

[MickeS]

So at the end of the day they will have Leno doing the tonight show and Conan somewhere else. Which is exactly what would have happened 6 years ago if they just told Conan, sorry. But, they would not have managed to decimate the network in the process. So I guess this way to the same end result was more fun?

I agree about the end result regarding "The Tonight Show" and Conan and Jay, but this didn't "decimate the network". Lots of other programming decisions took care of that in the last 3-4 years.

[realityboy]

I would guess the syndication agreements give the stations lots of leeway as to time slot.

Sometimes (at least in radio, might be in TV, too) the syndicators don't even care if you run the show, as long as you pay the fee and run the syndicator's commercials.

Depends on the show, but yes, I know a few of the shows have no problem with their commercials airing without the shows. I imagine that if FOX can get a late night show off the ground, that they would start it on the O&O affiliates as soon as possible and give the other affiliates time to rearrange things before making it mandatory.

[brianric]

Dave is going to absolutely SMOKE Jay in the ratings when Jay gets back on 11:35. If Conan gets on Fox he'll help with the effort. Then we can see who NBC will blame when Jay's ratings are too small to measure. :

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAHHAAHHAAHAHH
AAHHAAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAH
AHAHHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHHA
HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHH

Okay I'm done. Whooo my heart.. OH boy I'm feeling dizzy. Let me calm down a bit..

[marksman]

I agree about the end result regarding "The Tonight Show" and Conan and Jay, but this didn't "decimate the network". Lots of other programming decisions took care of that in the last 3-4 years.

No this was the big blow that really did it in. Would have been much easier to recover before this happened.

They shrunk their total network audience significantly, and in this age where networks are pretty bad at picking shows they now have to fill even more time.

Fortunately they might get lucky with the guy they moved over from USA and such, and maybe he can find some good shows to put on there.

I agree the network was a mess with bad programming decisions, but this move has made it twice as difficult for them to recover and will likely take substantially longer as well.

[IJustLikeTivo]

You can't just say, "You can't compete for 4 years because we say so." That is not a valid contract, no matter how many times both parties sign it.

Absent coercion, why not. If they ask him to sign and he does why isn't that valid. Now, you're gonna say there was no consideration but that doesn't always mean money.

I would guess the syndication agreements give the stations lots of leeway as to time slot.

Sometimes (at least in radio, might be in TV, too) the syndicators don't even care if you run the show, as long as you pay the fee and run the syndicator's commercials.

Guess? So, basicaly, you're really just stating an opinion. That's fine just be clear that there are no facts involved.

We all have no facts about what anyone's contract really said and the web sites aren't reliable. We'll really know only when they are fully negotiated and they announce the results.

[aindik]

Guess? So, basicaly, you're really just stating an opinion. That's fine just be clear that there are no facts involved.

Less stating an opinion, more guessing at what the facts are. I think the word "guess" made that clear enough.

We all have no facts about what anyone's contract really said and the web sites aren't reliable. We'll really know only when they are fully negotiated and they announce the results.

Even then, we won't know. Conan's contract is how many years ago and we still don't know what it says.

[smak]

I agree about the end result regarding "The Tonight Show" and Conan and Jay, but this didn't "decimate the network". Lots of other programming decisions took care of that in the last 3-4 years.

They just cancelled over 25% of their primetime programming.

That's pretty darn bad.

They are pretty lucky that the Olympics is going to take up 2 of the weeks that they would have been scrambling.

-smak-

[Amnesia]

They are pretty lucky that the Olympics is going to take up 2 of the weeks that they would have been scrambling.That's no coincidence.

[packerfan]

Here is a clip of Jimmy on Jay's show. It clearly shows who the most talented guy on late night is.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FNmWFD4oWg

[smak]

That's no coincidence.

Yes, I believe you are mostly correct. I don't know what they do if there is no Olympics though? All the negotiating came after they killed Jay at 10pm, so I don't see what they do differently. And I don't see Conan staying past next week.

It happened because of it's own momentum. They were going to want to keep Jay on the air, and Conan wasn't going to do 12:05. I don't see any other result.

-smak-

[marksman]

Absent coercion, why not. If they ask him to sign and he does why isn't that valid. Now, you're gonna say there was no consideration but that doesn't always mean money.

I know what consideration is and that is why I bought it up.

What other consideration would they have provided him in this case that would have him agree to a non-compete.

Please come up with some examples that might be valid in these circumstances.


The reason why it is isn't valid is because there is no apparent consideration.

If I write a contract that says, "I just liketivo agrees to give me $500,000 a year for 10 years because I like money." and I get you to sign it, you would have a relatively easy time breaking that contract, unless I could prove you actually did something or gave me something for that money.

In this case you would be offering me consideration and I would be offering you nothing. It is not legally binding.

So certainly you could still pay me $500,000 a year for 10 years, if you wanted to, but you would not be legally required to do so.

By the way if you want I can email the papers over for your signature.

[aindik]

In exchange for the non-compete, Conan also gets a pile of cash, and he gets a release from any claims NBC may have against him for breaching his prior contract (he also gives NBC a release). That's consideration both ways.

[Turtleboy]

Plus a peppercorn.

[smak]

Another big question is whether we will see Brian Williams on the first episode of Conan's new show...

-smak-

[Turtleboy]

I wonder what they will do on SNL tomorrow. Lorne Michaels is obviously a big Conan and Jimmy Fallon backer.

[IJustLikeTivo]

Less stating an opinion, more guessing at what the facts are. I think the word "guess" made that clear enough.



Even then, we won't know. Conan's contract is how many years ago and we still don't know what it says.

Whatever. Your guess, appears to be what others would call an opinion. To me a guess implies that you have a basis for your speculation and I see none.

[gastrof]

I hope whatever cash he gets, Conan manages a bit of generosity.

He wasn't the only one who uprooted his entire life and moved to the other side of the continent for a seven month show.

I hope for the sake of his band, the bit players, and anyone else he bought with him, FOX or "whoever" (if anyone) is willing to take on a package deal.


Completely different thought-
I wonder who'll be willing to take on the Tonight Show the next time Jay claiims he's retiring?

[JohnB1000]

. To me a guess implies that you have a basis for your speculation and I see none.

What a strange statement. A guess doesn't imply any basis for speculation, it's just a guess. If someone asks me a question and I have no idea of the answer but need to provide one then I guess.

Dictionary definition:

1 : to form an opinion of from little or no evidence
2 : believe, suppose <I guess you're right>
3 : to arrive at a correct conclusion about by conjecture, chance, or intuition <guess the answer>

[marksman]

Completely different thought-
I wonder who'll be willing to take on the Tonight Show the next time Jay claiims he's retiring?


Not how I think things went down.

Conan likely said to NBC: "I want to get my shot at the Tonight Show. If it is not coming soon, then I am going to have to pursue other opportunities."

NBC Says: "Hmm well Okay. Jay will probably be ready to retire, so what if we give you a deal that you get the show in 5 years?"

Conan: "Okay."

====

NBC: "So Jay you think you will be ready to retire in 5 years, won't you be ready to retire in 5 years?"

Jay: [Shrugs his shoulders] :"I guess so I don't know."

NBC:"Good deal. So we have signed a contract with Conan that he will take over the Tonight Show in 5 years. So you will be free to retire then!"

That is more along the lines of how I suspect it went down.

4 years were up, and then we might have gotten:

NBC: "So Jay, it has been a good run. Get planned for your final shows and then you can retire and spend more time with your cars."


Jay: "Ah okay. I guess. I would like to keep doing the show, but maybe I can do something somewhere else?"

NBC: "What? What do you mean? You told us you were going to retire, so you have to retire!"

Jay: "I never said I was going to retire, I just figured things would end up where they ended up. I would like to continue doing the show I have done for 19 years and made you a lot of money, but if you don't need me that is fine."

NBC: "No No No Jay. Frick! You told us you were retiring. This is not good. Hmm... [dateline, medium, law and order] Umm Jay.. what if we gave you a show in Primetime?"

Jay: "What do you mean like a special?"

NBC :"No. Five nights a week, 52 weeks a year at 10:00pm. A whole new show, we will call it... we will call it.. 'THE JAY LENO SHOW"

Jay: "Sounds interesting. So would I get a new studio? Also if you guys trip out, I am going to need some sort of guarantee. How about if you guys don't keep me on the air you have to give me... hmmm. [what is a good number for a joke?] 80 million dollars."

NBC :"Done! New studio, 10pm 5 nights a week and if we take you off the air or move you we will give you 80 million dollars! Thanks Jay you are great."

Jay: "When can I start my show?"

[DevdogAZ]

Yes, I believe you are mostly correct. I don't know what they do if there is no Olympics though? All the negotiating came after they killed Jay at 10pm, so I don't see what they do differently. And I don't see Conan staying past next week.

It happened because of it's own momentum. They were going to want to keep Jay on the air, and Conan wasn't going to do 12:05. I don't see any other result.

-smak-
They've already announced what will be filling the 10 pm slot after the Olympics.

Monday: Law & Order
Tuesday: Parenthood
Wednesday: Law & Order: SVU
Thursday: The Marriage Ref
Friday: Dateline

(I don't think they've announced yet what they'll do in the three slots previously filled by L&O, SVU and Dateline.)

[Knives of Ice]

will be the greatest television ever if howard stern does accepts Conan's invitation and does the tonight show next week. we'll finally hear some REAL talk from Conan if he does.

[Test]

Completely different thought-
I wonder who'll be willing to take on the Tonight Show the next time Jay claiims he's retiring?

Carson was on for 30 years. Maybe Leno would want to be on at least that long, maybe longer? So I see it as sometime after 2022 we have a rehash of Late Night War I. Jimmy Fallon is ready to take over, but NBC snubs him for some hot new comic so he moves over to CBS. Rinse and repeat

[dswallow]

They've already announced what will be filling the 10 pm slot after the Olympics.

Monday: Law & Order
Tuesday: Parenthood
Wednesday: Law & Order: SVU
Thursday: The Marriage Ref
Friday: Dateline

(I don't think they've announced yet what they'll do in the three slots previously filled by L&O, SVU and Dateline.)

I think we're all waiting to hear the announcement of what NBC will put there that will actually draw viewers to the programming; this stuff is just retreads of the same crap that put NBC underwater to begin with. :)

[gastrof]

Carson was on for 30 years. Maybe Leno would want to be on at least that long, maybe longer? So I see it as sometime after 2022 we have a rehash of Late Night War I. Jimmy Fallon is ready to take over, but NBC snubs him for some hot new comic so he moves over to CBS. Rinse and repeat

To be honest, back when Jay said he would be turning over the show to Conan in so many years, I thought to myself "That's too soon... You've barely made it yours."

In that sense it'd sort of be good if Jay takes the Tonight Show back, but still, Conan's getting treated very badly.

Did anyone hear what Ebersol had the nerve to say? The whole thing has always hinged on JAY'S bad ratings, but he tried to say this was due to Conan's ratings. Talk about trying to rewrite history! He's trying to do it while it's still happening, and everyone KNOWS what he's saying isn't true.

What a class act.

[bicker]

I should have been clearer in that I was refering to the 'Big 3' at 10pm.Well, okay, but why "Big 3" -- what is so magical about the number '3'? Putting aside, for a minute, that in calling them the "Big 3" you're ignoring the fact that Fox was the #1 network last year... Given all the new diversions that have been introduced over the past decade, including, but by no means limited to, cable networks introducing original series that happen to be broadcast at 10PM Eastern, there is a good reason to assume that a time slot that used to be a decent time slot for 3 big over-the-air broadcast networks may now only really have room for 2 of them.

Just this winter:

Monday 10PM
- Damages (FX)
- Secret Diary of a Call Girl and State of the Union (SHO)
- Men of a Certain Age (TNT)
- Greek (ABC Family)
... not to mention Kell on Earth, Motor City Motors, Anthony Bourdain

Tuesday 10PM
- Southland (TNT)
- White Collar (USA)
... not to mention Maneaters, Life after People

Wednesday 10PM
- Nip/Tuck (FX)
- Being Erica (Soapnet)
- Leverage (TNT)
- Psych (USA)
... not to mention Lawman, South Park, Launch My Line, Spectacle

Thursday 10PM
- Archer (FX)
- Burn Notice (USA)
... not to mention Real Housewives, Project Runway, Jersey Shore

Friday 10PM
- Spartacus: Blood and Sand (Starz)
- Sanctuary (Syfy)
... not to mention The Soup, Real Time

Almost none of this competition existed ten years ago. Yes, folks can watch these shows at other times during the week, but they could also watch them during these times, when the premiere each week, and that, the fact that this is the time slot within which these shows premiere each week, draws a lot of audience away from the over-the-air networks. Surely when there are three or four completely new scripted drama options to choose from, that is going to naturally cut-into the audience that used to be split between the "Big 3", totally apart from (before) anything that the "Big 3" might do, themselves.

[bicker]

Well this whole folly certainly did that, and again everyone except you and the NBC execs knew that from the word go.Y'know, if you think you're so smart, then perhaps you should show them how much better you are than they are.

I think you're peddling a whole bunch of hot air. It sure is easy to sit back and take pot-shots, and childish personal attacks, at folks, but you never have to prove the worth of your curmudgeony. It is very clear that you wouldn't know a good business decision if it hit you in the face, because your comments make it so clear that you are utterly blinded by your viewer perspective. I sure hope that you don't run any company my retirement investments are invested in.

Get over yourself.

But remember, Bicker knows business.I actually do, which is why I spent a career advising successful companies, and Marksman did what? Bupkis I suspect.

Anyone who thinks that cost-cutting at broadcast networks is over is smokin' something... and clearly knows nothing about the business.

[bicker]

Carson was on for 30 years.Folks need to ask themselves a very important question about this: How much money was NBC making in those last few years of Carson's reign. The answer is almost surely a lot less than you think, and that was a major consideration in all of this. However, because it was a business consideration, some blow-hards will clearly try to ignore such a consideration, refusing to acknowledge yet-another business reality.

So I see it as sometime after 2022 we have a rehash of Late Night War I.Something akin to this will happen whenever a network has been excessively successful attracting the best talent. The only way to avoid this kind of thing is to be sure that you only hire one person who is going to be aiming for the top. Ridiculous.

[bicker]

I think we're all waiting to hear the announcement of what NBC will put there that will actually draw viewers to the programming; this stuff is just retreads of the same crap that put NBC underwater to begin with. :)Which really highlights my point, though, to be fair, an argument could be made that this is all that NBC could fill the gaps with on short notice. The real test will be next fall. Will the total number of scripted hours go up by at least three (to bring it back up to 2008-2009 levels) or will it end up with something less than that, a reflection of the going-to-happen-no-matter-what cost-reduction which I've been referring to and Marksman been ridiculously trying to convince us is not in the best interests of the enterprise.

[betts4]

Well, okay, but why "Big 3" -- what is so magical about the number '3'? Putting aside, for a minute, that in calling them the "Big 3" you're ignoring the fact that Fox was the #1 network last year...

I agree. I don't think there has been a "big 3" in a couple/few years. The big 3 is an 80's term. We need to update the tv lingo for those execs. Big 5? abc, nbc, cbs, fox, usa/tnt/hbo/sho, ? USA has quite a few really good rated shows. And keeps bringing more out.

[bicker]

I could even accept the idea of a "Big 4", but that still includes Fox, again the #1, and Fox leaves 10PM for its affiliates. The development of so many new distractions for us at 10PM means that, with regard to over-the-air broadcast, we need to think of this as a game of Musical Chairs. There used to be three chairs, but now there are two chairs left, and the music has stopped. CBS clearly has both butt cheeks on a chair. Some would claim that ABC does as well, and that NBC is the network that was left without a chair.

[lew]

Johnny Carson (Carson Productions) owned the show and made most of the profits. NBC didn't give Leno ownership of the show. I'm sure, near the end, NBC wasn't making a lot of money from the show. That was probably a factor.

When Johnny started late night viewers didn't have a lot of alternatives. For something like the first half of Johnny's run viewers didn't even have VCRs. You watched Johnny, a movie or you watched nothing.




Folks need to ask themselves a very important question about this: How much money was NBC making in those last few years of Carson's reign. The answer is almost surely a lot less than you think, and that was a major consideration in all of this. However, because it was a business consideration, some blow-hards will clearly try to ignore such a consideration, refusing to acknowledge yet-another business reality.

Something akin to this will happen whenever a network has been excessively successful attracting the best talent. The only way to avoid this kind of thing is to be sure that you only hire one person who is going to be aiming for the top. Ridiculous.

[bicker]

Johnny Carson (Carson Productions) owned the show and made most of the profits. Think about: How did that come about?

(Lew: I'm sure you know I'm being rhetorical. Most of us do know the answer to that question, just like most of us know that there were good reasons for practically everything NBC has done, and practically everything all the networks do, even though so many posters are trying to hard to deny that broadcasting is far harder of a business than they'll ever be willing to admit, because admitting it would spoil the jollies they get from casting reckless aspersions when they don't like something.)

[DevdogAZ]

I could even accept the idea of a "Big 4", but that still includes Fox, again the #1, and Fox leaves 10PM for its affiliates. The development of so many new distractions for us at 10PM means that, with regard to over-the-air broadcast, we need to think of this as a game of Musical Chairs. There used to be three chairs, but now there are two chairs left, and the music has stopped. CBS clearly has both butt cheeks on a chair. Some would claim that ABC does as well, and that NBC is the network that was left without a chair.
In your previous rundown of all the "distractions" on other networks keeping people from watching dramas on the Big 3, I think you failed to account for the fact that the number of viewers watching local news on their Fox affiliate probably dwarfs the rest of the non-broadcast competition in that timeslot. The local Fox affiliates do very well with their news broadcasts because there is a huge segment of the population that doesn't like to stay up late enough to catch the news on the Big 3.

[LoadStar]

In your previous rundown of all the "distractions" on other networks keeping people from watching dramas on the Big 3, I think you failed to account for the fact that the number of viewers watching local news on their Fox affiliate probably dwarfs the rest of the non-broadcast competition in that timeslot. The local Fox affiliates do very well with their news broadcasts because there is a huge segment of the population that doesn't like to stay up late enough to catch the news on the Big 3.

And in fact, I recall at least one instance when FOX wanted to begin programming the 10:00 hour, and the affiliates revolted. By showing local programming (news or other) the affiliate can keep the entire ad proceeds for the hour. By giving it back to the network, they only get part of it.

[bicker]

In your previous rundown of all the "distractions" on other networks keeping people from watching dramas on the Big 3, I think you failed to account for the fact that the number of viewers watching local news on their Fox affiliate probably dwarfs the rest of the non-broadcast competition in that timeslot.Great point! And good reason for NBC to consider giving 10PM back to the affiliates, in return for other considerations.

[Adam1115]

According to Fox president Kevin Reilly, Fox has the rights in their affiliate agreements to put on a late-night show at 11:00 pm and force the affiliates to carry it. However, he said that they wouldn't be so cavalier about it, because the affiliates have just come through a difficult business cycle and most make quite a bit of money airing syndicated reruns in that slot. So it Fox could make it work for Conan if they want to, but it might be a little painful for Fox affiliates.

Quoted for those saying Fox couldn't do a late show if they chose.

[terpfan1980]

Quoted Smeeked for those saying Fox couldn't do a late show if they chose.

FYP :D

[marksman]

Think about: How did that come about?

(Lew: I'm sure you know I'm being rhetorical. Most of us do know the answer to that question, just like most of us know that there were good reasons for practically everything NBC has done,

By most of us, you mean only you, right?

You are the only person before or after who has defended what NBC did as being anywhere close to intelligent or being a good business move.

I don't know if your dad is Jeff Zucker or what... but there is something off with you and your fanatical defense of this silliness.

[marksman]

I think we're all waiting to hear the announcement of what NBC will put there that will actually draw viewers to the programming; this stuff is just retreads of the same crap that put NBC underwater to begin with. :)

Actually Parenthood likes like it could be a very good show.

It certainly has good production and a ridiculously amazing cast.

[marksman]

Y'know, if you think you're so smart, then perhaps you should show them how much better you are than they are.

I think you're peddling a whole bunch of hot air. It sure is easy to sit back and take pot-shots, and childish personal attacks, at folks, but you never have to prove the worth of your curmudgeony. It is very clear that you wouldn't know a good business decision if it hit you in the face, because your comments make it so clear that you are utterly blinded by your viewer perspective. I sure hope that you don't run any company my retirement investments are invested in.

Get over yourself.

I actually do, which is why I spent a career advising successful companies, and Marksman did what? Bupkis I suspect.

Anyone who thinks that cost-cutting at broadcast networks is over is smokin' something... and clearly knows nothing about the business.


I am not going to get into a resume contest. I will say just one thing. I run businesses, I don't advise them. I wish I could get a list of your "clients" and advise them against using you.

You supported one of the dumbest business decisions of the 21st century, and even after it fell apart you still support it.

Small children knew this was a horrible business decision before it took place. Everyone in the world knows it is a bad decision in hindsight except for you.

You have proven your simpleton level of knowledge of business by things you say here. Direct profit is the only concern. A middle-school business basics student knows actual business is more complex than that. Your business acumen displayed here would not be enough to make a lemonade stand in the summer profitable.


Look at what I have said on these forums since this started. I was 100% correct from the beginning about why it was a bad idea and why it would never last. Heck I specifically called this would all end with the upcoming olympics a month ago.

So please tell me why I should care what you say or think about this when you clearly have no idea what you are talking about, and no actual perception or understanding what makes for good business or good business decisions.

I am not a tv executive so I don't have that experience, but neither do you. However this move was fundamentally broken from the get go. It didn't take an insider's knowledge to see why it would fail and why it did fail. That is why it is all the worse. Most people knew it would not work. People who knew nothing about business or tv knew it wouldn't work. Why did'nt you. Why don't you?

Just because a network needs to be profitable does not mean it can forsake other key factors of their business, like their relationships with their affiliates or their total network audience, which is so important when promoting new shows and building older shows and keeping your entire audience up.

NBC once canceled the #4 show on tv for having too low of ratings. There is more to the game than just a short-term bottom line. You can't just run a business for the today and ignore all the other factors. That is what differentiates someone who should not be running a business from someone who should.

I would love to have heard your business advice to NBC on this. "Good Job guys. You guys are great. You are right on. Screw the affiliates. Make all the money you can right now. That is all that matters. Tomorrow we all may be dead!"

[bicker]

By most of us, you mean only you, right?No, I wrote "most of us" so I meant "most of us".

You are the only person before or after who has defended what NBC did as being anywhere close to intelligent or being a good business move.I'm the only person in this thread, perhaps, but that's a reflection of how few pro-business people care enough about forums like this to participate in them and have a thick-enough skin to put up with childish behavior like yours.

Also, no one claimed that it was a brilliant innovation. That's another reflection of your blind consumerism trying to justify your criticisms. I'll state it simply so even you can understand it: Scripted television costs more than it is worth broadcasters to broadcast. That must be fixed, even if you don't like it.

[IJustLikeTivo]

.

Also, no one claimed that it was a brilliant innovation. That's another reflection of your blind consumerism trying to justify your criticisms. I'll state it simply so even you can understand it: Scripted television costs more than it is worth broadcasters to broadcast. That must be fixed, even if you don't like it.

So, how do you fix it? Aside from ratings, what has changed to make scripted TV so expensive?

Why is there still lots of scripted stuff on other networks? Heck, USA and TNT and makings truck loads of scripted stuff. Are they losing money?

I think the main advantage all the non networks have is the ability to instantly re-purpose or rerun their shows. The networks pay a fortune and run it once each week and perhaps once later. How do they either increase the revenue or decrease the costs?

[GadgetFreak]

Great point! And good reason for NBC to consider giving 10PM back to the affiliates, in return for other considerations.

Interesting. Wonder if they seriously considered that? Instead of their plan of Jay at 11:30 followed by Conan at 12:05, what if local news were 10-11, followed by Jay at 11:00 with no change to the timing of Tonight Show?

Would the considerations from the affiliates allow the network to make up what they lose in the 10-11pm hour?

[gastrof]

When Jay's show was first announced, our local NBC station wasn't going to run it, but was going to do news, from ten to eleven thirty-five.

NBC got its way, but look what's ended up happening.

Our local station might well jump at the chance to run news at ten and then get Jay and Conan after that.

I mean, CW and FOX stations have long done their news at 10pm. Why not NBC stations too?

The only thing about the "Jay at 11:35 followed by Conan/Tonight at 12:05" that bugged me was HOW could Jay do a show for only 30 minutes? What good is that?

[gastrof]

Eh. The news just said Conan and NBC are near to a deal on him leaving, getting a huge chunk of cash, AND being free to move to another network.

Who else here is afraid he'll end up opening car dealerships and grocery stores?

[DevdogAZ]

FYP :D
I don't see how quoting something qualifies as a smeek. :confused: Isn't the fact that he's acknowledging something posted previously the very antithesis of a smeek?

[gastrof]

Y'know, if you think you're so smart, then perhaps you should show them how much better you are than they are.

I think you're peddling a whole bunch of hot air. It sure is easy to sit back and take pot-shots, and childish personal attacks, at folks, but you never have to prove the worth of your curmudgeony. It is very clear that you wouldn't know a good business decision if it hit you in the face, because your comments make it so clear that you are utterly blinded by your viewer perspective. I sure hope that you don't run any company my retirement investments are invested in.

Get over yourself.

I actually do, which is why I spent a career advising successful companies, and Marksman did what? Bupkis I suspect.

Anyone who thinks that cost-cutting at broadcast networks is over is smokin' something... and clearly knows nothing about the business.



I am not going to get into a resume contest. I will say just one thing. I run businesses, I don't advise them. I wish I could get a list of your "clients" and advise them against using you.

You supported one of the dumbest business decisions of the 21st century, and even after it fell apart you still support it.

Small children knew this was a horrible business decision before it took place. Everyone in the world knows it is a bad decision in hindsight except for you.

You have proven your simpleton level of knowledge of business by things you say here. Direct profit is the only concern. A middle-school business basics student knows actual business is more complex than that. Your business acumen displayed here would not be enough to make a lemonade stand in the summer profitable.


Look at what I have said on these forums since this started. I was 100% correct from the beginning about why it was a bad idea and why it would never last. Heck I specifically called this would all end with the upcoming olympics a month ago.

So please tell me why I should care what you say or think about this when you clearly have no idea what you are talking about, and no actual perception or understanding what makes for good business or good business decisions.

I am not a tv executive so I don't have that experience, but neither do you. However this move was fundamentally broken from the get go. It didn't take an insider's knowledge to see why it would fail and why it did fail. That is why it is all the worse. Most people knew it would not work. People who knew nothing about business or tv knew it wouldn't work. Why did'nt you. Why don't you?

Just because a network needs to be profitable does not mean it can forsake other key factors of their business, like their relationships with their affiliates or their total network audience, which is so important when promoting new shows and building older shows and keeping your entire audience up.

NBC once canceled the #4 show on tv for having too low of ratings. There is more to the game than just a short-term bottom line. You can't just run a business for the today and ignore all the other factors. That is what differentiates someone who should not be running a business from someone who should.

I would love to have heard your business advice to NBC on this. "Good Job guys. You guys are great. You are right on. Screw the affiliates. Make all the money you can right now. That is all that matters. Tomorrow we all may be dead!"


http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/357/guffawtz2.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[bicker]

So, how do you fix it?We were just talking about this in a thread on AVS Forum. NetworkTV posted a very good treatise (in the thread "The End of FREE Broadcast TV?" in case folks want to seek it out). The bottom-line is that there doesn't necessarily need to be a way to "fix it". Not everything can be fixed. He made reference to how we (well, more likely, our parents, or perhaps grandparents) used to all sit around radios for entertainment, among other things. Each type of entertainment has its day; sometimes a type of entertainment is long-lasting, sometimes not; sometimes a type of entertainment falls into the background, sometimes one drops out of existence entirely.

Aside from ratings, what has changed to make scripted TV so expensive? On the left, you have each of the crafts, including directors and actors, collect themselves together to negotiation arrangements that seek to protect and enhance the stream of money devoted to their craft. On the right, you have a billion new ways for people to invest the money that they used to invest solely in producing television shows, and every dollar invested always competes with every other way that dollar can be invested. Just like competition for consumer purchases drives down the money in a consumer market, competition for investment capital drives up the money in an investment market.

So the cost increases are coming from both sides.

Why is there still lots of scripted stuff on other networks?Fox doesn't have more "scripted stuff" than NBC, and ABC doesn't have that much more. CBS is more closely-held, and its largest stockholders are great fans of the medium, and as long as they're alive and in charge, CBS will always resist the natural forces in the industry.

Heck, USA and TNT and makings truck loads of scripted stuff. Are they losing money?USA and TNT are able to pay their cast and crew less (see above, after "On the left", for why NBC cannot do this), and both networks have two revenue streams, so going forward it is possible that they will end up being a more reliable source of revenue than NBC.

Also note that USA is run by the same people who run NBC. They're strategically deciding how much money to put toward programming on USA versus NBC. (See above, after "On the right", for more info on this.) It is focused on what's best long-term for their owners, not necessarily what is best for you, right now today.

How do they either increase the revenue or decrease the costs?I have posted this idea several times:

I envision the networks moving to a multi-channel distribution model, eventually:

1) Every show we see now on Broadcast Network XXC will appear first, in (say) April, on Premium Network XXA, uncut, uninterrupted, and with no commercial bugs or overlays. At the same time, it would be available via Pay Per View, and via Premium Network XXA's On Demand service. Perhaps at the same time, or shortly thereafter, the episodes will become available for streaming download from Netflix or other pay-for-streaming services, or perhaps even on quickly-pressed DVDs.

2) Then, in July, the episodes will be rebroadcast on Cable Network XXB. This time, they'll have commercials inserted, and perhaps some content removed. There maybe station identification bugs, and perhaps even overlays used to advertise other Cable Network XXB programming. These same versions of the episodes will be available on Cable Network XXB's On Demand service, while the uncut versions remain available, perhaps rerun in wee hours on Premium Network XXA, as well as through Netflix or other pay-for-streaming services.

3) Then, in October, these same episodes will start their broadcast run on Broadcast Network XXC. They will again have commercials inserted, just like when they were broadcast on Cable Network XXB, but in addition, they will have a significant amount of product and service advertising overlay -- perhaps as much as half of the program will have advertising for some product or service, either on a strip on the bottom, left or right. (It will move around from one spot to another during the episode.) The episodes, complete with product and service advertising overlays, will also become available on On Demand service Broadcast Network XXC makes available to cable companies, and on their websites (or through Hulu, perhaps).

I don't see any reason why (say) Heroes shouldn't be presented on a premium channel first, then a few months later on cable, and then a few months later on broadcast. It seems to me that this approach makes programming available in a variety of formats (i.e., with a variety of different levels of advertising invasiveness), and timeliness -- just pick which one you feel is worth it to you. I think this would offer the cable networks far more "original" programming to present (so it would be good for them) and I think it is a good arrangement for the premium networks as well. They would have to make room for a lot more episodic programming, but I think there is a lot of advantage to be had, offering the uncut and uninterrupted non-commercial versions, three months in advance.It is impractical, for several reasons, but does at least cover most of the bases with regard to the "On the right" point I made earlier.

[lambertman]

NBC once canceled the #4 show on tv for having too low of ratings.

Refresh my memory?

[bicker]

Interesting. Wonder if they seriously considered that?As long as they can make more money with 10PM than without it, they won't give 10PM to the affiliates. The key goes back to what I said earlier, which some folks seem to be incapable of understanding: There is a natural balance, between how much it costs broadcasters to provide programming and how much it is worth it to broadcasters to present programming. That natural balance isn't at all affected by the fact that bad PR pushed their Leno at 10PM effort back. They're going to find a way to fulfill the objective, which that effort was working toward, some other way. And with that other method employed, and most likely not pushed-back (because it is rare when opponents have the kind of opportunity afforded them, which having this Leno at 10PM change happen at the same time as the Comcast acquisition, did), they'll achieve that necessary balance, and there won't be a good reason to give the affiliates 10PM.

However, that doesn't preclude it from happening. It could be that viewers are worth a lot less than they used to be worth, and so perhaps only warrant two hours of prime time programming per night. I just think that there is a bit more distance between how much they currently pay for programming and how much less they could pay for programming, for that hour, before it reaches the point where viewers really are not worth it anymore.

Would the considerations from the affiliates allow the network to make up what they lose in the 10-11pm hour?My guess is that the affiliates likely would be okay with the change, in smaller markets at least.

[Langree]

Also note that USA is run by the same people who run NBC. They're strategically deciding how much money to put toward programming on USA versus NBC. (See above, after "On the right", for more info on this.) It is focused on what's best long-term for their owners, not necessarily what is best for you, right now today.


Do we know this for a fact?

Just because they are under the same umbrella doesn't mean they don't keep programming and budgets for each seperate.

My quick search shows Jeff Wachtel as head of Original programming at USA and Bill McGoldrick as Sr. VP of same.

NBC has Jeff Gaspin (who used to helm the the network's cable properties. interestingly enough)

Check out this article from when Gaspin took over:

http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/tv/2009/07/27/2009-07-27_turnover_at_nbc_cochair_of_programming_ben_silverman_out_ jeff_gaspin_in.html

I found this part interesting, now looking at how it's ended.

For instance, Gaspin cites the move this fall to 10 p.m. for Jay Leno, whose nightly comedy show will provide an alternative to rivals' dramas at a lower cost.

Success, he said, also requires viewers to be connected not only on TV but online and via cell phones.

"You can't just get a viewer to watch your network," he said. "You have to engage them and keep them a long time.

[bicker]

Do we know this for a fact? Just because they are under the same umbrella doesn't mean they don't keep programming and budgets for each seperate. That's true, but we do know that NBC does not report P&L to investors, while NBCU does.

[Langree]

That's true, but we do know that NBC does not report P&L to investors, while NBCU does.

and?

NBC/CNBC/USA ad nauseum still probably keep their own records seperate in house, an invester p&l is just a pooling together of all that information.

[bicker]

As an investor, I'm going to take action vis a vis my investments based on the public information available, not internal information for which I have no exposure. Internal data is good for managers to base bonuses and promotions (and terminations) -- the business is run as business units, each with its own P&L.

[Turtleboy]

Jay Leno in his own words. Watch the whole clip

http://tv.gawker.com/5450086/jay-lenos-shocking-2004-indian-giving-promise-to-conan-obrien

[marksman]

Refresh my memory?

The Single Guy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Single_Guy)

[marksman]

Jay Leno in his own words. Watch the whole clip

http://tv.gawker.com/5450086/jay-lenos-shocking-2004-indian-giving-promise-to-conan-obrien

That is bogus. What did Jay do in the past month to hurt Conan?

NBC is the one who did it, not Jay. I am not sure why people want to lay any of the blame on Jay. Jay had his show canceled before Conan had anything done to him. Then in order to try and not have to pay Jay 80 million the NBC geniuses that Bicker has all the trading cards for, decided to come up with a kookoo plan to try and keep them both on the air.

NBC could have paid Jay to walk, but they made another deal with them. Jay always wanted to be on the air. He was kicked off the Tonight Show in the first place because Conan wanted it. Conan got him kicked off th Tonight Show. I am not sure why Jay should feel bad when Conan refuses to do the show any longer to take the job back. Jay never wanted to leave the job.

He made that announcement because he was being a good sport, but it was clear it was never what he wanted.

Conan told NBC back then, give me the tonight show or I am probably leaving when my contract is over. Conan got NBC to retire Jay early. I don't fault Conan for that move, and I don't fault Jay for taking the Tonight Show back now. I doubt Jay demanded the Tonight Show back, which is what Conan essentially did 5 years ago.

Both guys did what was right for them. As I have said before, I am a Conan fan, and don't care much about Leno and his show. However, I keep seeing people trying to put him at fault or paint him with an evil brush and I don't see it.

[bicker]

Both guys did what was right for them.Everyone did. As they should.

[timckelley]

My wife thinks that Leno should have turned down NBC's offer to put him back into the tonight now, saying that it should be Conan as was originally promised.

[LoadStar]

Conan told NBC back then, give me the tonight show or I am probably leaving when my contract is over. Conan got NBC to retire Jay early. I don't fault Conan for that move, and I don't fault Jay for taking the Tonight Show back now. I doubt Jay demanded the Tonight Show back, which is what Conan essentially did 5 years ago.
You state that Conan forced the issue, and "forced Jay to retire early." I honestly don't see that at all, and I've never seen anything out there that would back that statement up. Jay announced that he was retiring, WAY before it was announced that Conan would get The Tonight Show. And frankly, at that point, Conan was perfectly happy doing Late Night. He was getting very good press, he was nominated for academy awards yearly (and in fact won one in 2007). Did he want something bigger such as The Tonight Show? Sure, but force the issue? I don't think so.

It seems many people see Jay Leno as a Brett Favre type of individual... he announced his retirement, then right when it came that time, he suddenly became wishy-washy and decided he wanted to still do TV... but by that point, he had already announced he was retiring, and they had already set Aaron Rodgers up as his replacement. Erm. I mean Conan O'Brien. 'Scuse me.

Once Jay had decided he wanted to still do TV, he was well and prepared to walk to another network. In fact, as I understand, discussions were well underway with ABC to bump Nightline and set Jay up with a show there. NBC, in order to lock him up and prevent him from walking, gave him the 10:00 show. Do I fault either NBC or Jay for that? Not really, other than that NBC should have thought through the whole scenario and all the possible repercussions (including that to The Tonight Show) a little more thoroughly.

I think that people partially blame Jay for the current mess for the same reason that they blame him when he "un-retired." They think that his un-retiring caused The Tonight Show to lose ratings, and his wanting to stay "un-retired" forced NBC to try and find a different place in the schedule for him - at the expense of The Tonight Show.

I don't think the current mess is really Jay's fault, other than perhaps that things might have been much easier had he just retired (or walked) like he said he would in the first place. The mess right now is strictly NBC's fault - they could have just canceled The Jay Leno Show and left The Tonight Show alone for a while longer to see what would happen, but they didn't. They wanted to have their cake and eat it too. They (and when I say they, it really does seem to be purely Zucker) really screwed the pooch on this one.

[Turtleboy]

It's funny. They were trying to avoid a repeat of the last scenario, when they lost Letterman. Five years ago if Conan was saying that he was going to walk unless they gave him 1130 (which I don't really think he did), they should have said Goodbye. Once they made the decision, if Jay said he was going to walk unless they gave him something, they should have said goodbye.

It's NBC's fault, but I do blame Jay too. He really is coming off like Brett Farvre.

[bicker]

It's funny. They were trying to avoid a repeat of the last scenario, when they lost Letterman.The only way to avoid these situation is to hire crappier talent.

[lew]

The only way to avoid these situation is to hire crappier talent.

Carson had a variety of guest hosts who, at one time, were regarding as the heir apparent. I'm thinking of people like David Brenner. NBC had no reason to "lock up" them up. As time went on a different group of younger performers were considered the heir apparent. What's different is there are more other places for those people to get shows.

Carson never cared when other networks started late night shows with performers like Joey Bishop, Dick Cavett etc. Those shows never did well in the ratings and never lasted.

I don't know how well Conan would have done against Leno and Lettermen. NBC might have been better off letting Conan walk. I never understood making a comittment to "retire" a successful host like Leno years in advance.

[getreal]

... Conan was perfectly happy doing Late Night. He was getting very good press, he was nominated for academy awards yearly (and in fact won one in 2007).

:eek::confused:
Did he win for playing Gollum? No ... that wasn't him.

[LoadStar]

:eek::confused:
Did he win for playing Gollum? No ... that wasn't him.

Sorry, I meant Emmy award. My bad. I get all those award shows mixed up.

[marksman]

It's funny. They were trying to avoid a repeat of the last scenario, when they lost Letterman. Five years ago if Conan was saying that he was going to walk unless they gave him 1130 (which I don't really think he did), they should have said Goodbye.

You don't think Conan's desire for the Tonight Show gig was the impetus for this?

You think NBC just went to Conan when he was in the middle of a contract, hey we would love to have you take over the Tonight Show in 5 years?

Is that what you think happened?


I know NBC is stupid beyond all comprehension but to believe they took theinitiative on this debacle would take it up another magnitude in bad decision making.

Quickly checking here is a Quick NPR Blog (http://www.npr.org/blogs/monkeysee/2010/01/jay_lenos_superclassy_2004_spe.html) about the situation back then and it states that :

when NBC suggested handing off The Tonight Show to Conan O'Brien in 2009 (as an enticement to Conan, who was reportedly getting other offers), he agreed that 2009 was a good end date.

I don't think Jay was under any kind of legal or moral obligation to retire when he "agreed" to do so back 2004. As I have mentioned it was likely very non-committal and whatever on Jay's part. He probably didn't care, maybe it sounded like a good idea. However NBC had to sense things and play accordingly. They obviously totally mis-read Jay. It is not like Jay came to them and said he wanted to retire. In that case if Jay backed out, I would feel like he had some responsibility. NBC came to Jay and essentially ask/told him to retire in 5 years.

[Turtleboy]

Nice misreading and misunderstanding of what I said.

[hapdrastic]

I liked Seth Meyer's marriage analogy about this situation on Weekend Update. First thing that made me see it from Jay's side at all. Although I still think he should have just sucked it up and retired like he said he would.

[JYoung]

You state that Conan forced the issue, and "forced Jay to retire early." I honestly don't see that at all, and I've never seen anything out there that would back that statement up. Jay announced that he was retiring, WAY before it was announced that Conan would get The Tonight Show. And frankly, at that point, Conan was perfectly happy doing Late Night. He was getting very good press, he was nominated for academy awards yearly (and in fact won one in 2007). Did he want something bigger such as The Tonight Show? Sure, but force the issue? I don't think so.

It seems many people see Jay Leno as a Brett Favre type of individual... he announced his retirement, then right when it came that time, he suddenly became wishy-washy and decided he wanted to still do TV... but by that point, he had already announced he was retiring, and they had already set Aaron Rodgers up as his replacement. Erm. I mean Conan O'Brien. 'Scuse me.





It's NBC's fault, but I do blame Jay too. He really is coming off like Brett Farvre.



When did Leno say he was retiring from television?
Everyone keeps saying that but I never heard or read him saying that.

Even in the clip Turtleboy linked to, Jay said he was handing the Tonight Show to O'Brien he very much says that he is not quitting show business.
(And BTW, The Tonight Show is not Leno's to give. It did and still belongs to NBC.)

So none of this should have been a surprise to the NBC executives and yet here we are.

[TheMerk]

(And BTW, The Tonight Show is not Leno's to give. It did and still belongs to NBC.)

This is an important point. Letterman owns his show, and Conan will probably end up owning the rights to his. Frankly, it seems a much better situation to be in.

[netringer]

My prediction #2 (remember who said Conan will walk): Conan will be guest on The Late Show with David Letterman the week after his last Tonight Show.

And it's not beyond the realm of the possible that Conan takes over The Late Show when Dave retires, if Craig Ferguson doesn't want it.

[marksman]

Nice misreading and misunderstanding of what I said.

You said you didn't think Conan said he was going to walk unless he got the Tonight Show.

How did I misunderstand you?



If Conan was saying that he was going to walk unless they gave him 1130 (which I don't really think he did),

I read it again, and it still reads to me that you are saying you don't believe Conan said he would walk away unless they gave him the 11:30 timeslot. Which I assume you are referring to the Tonight Show.

So I responded to you saying you don't think he did something, yet I misunderstood you. So please clarify.

I agree with you that if Conan did ask for timeslot they should have said sorry Charlie... We agree on all that. I was taking exception to your idea that he didn't actually ask for that, and pointed out a article from 5 years ago that seemed to support the idea that Conan was indeed shopping around or entertaining other offers.

I have to believe even if someone else approached Conan, that when NBC talked to him he was the first one to bring up the idea of the Tonight Show. I could be 100% wrong on that... but I have a pretty good feeling I am not.

[ElJay]

When did Leno say he was retiring from television?
Everyone keeps saying that but I never heard or read him saying that.

Even in the clip Turtleboy linked to, Jay said he was handing the Tonight Show to O'Brien he very much says that he is not quitting show business.
(And BTW, The Tonight Show is not Leno's to give. It did and still belongs to NBC.)

"Show business" could mean just about anything. Game show host, talk radio, a stand-up tour, hosting the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade on NBC. I don't think anybody figured in 2004 that it meant he'd just move up an hour and a half, perform the same show, and still let Conan follow him. It seems in the five years that followed the 2004 announcement, Leno's desire to remain in "show business" truly meant nothing other than having his face on a regularly scheduled TV broadcast. This of course frightened NBC with the idea of possibly competing against Leno and the rest is history (or soon to be history).

Leno said recently on his show that he was "fired" from the Tonight Show. The clip Turtleboy gave us certainly shows that's not the case when the transition was drawn up in 2004.

[pendragn]

Leno said recently on his show that he was "fired" from the Tonight Show. The clip Turtleboy gave us certainly shows that's not the case when the transition was drawn up in 2004.

It might be my memory playing tricks on me, but I absolutely remember Jay getting the boot in 2004 so that NBC could keep Conan by giving him Jay's job. I don't remember it being Jay's idea, or Jay saying he would retire. I remember him getting pushed out.

I could certainly be proved wrong by articles from the era, but that's not how I remember it.

tk

[morac]

I liked Seth Meyer's marriage analogy about this situation on Weekend Update. First thing that made me see it from Jay's side at all. Although I still think he should have just sucked it up and retired like he said he would.

It was a fairly good analogy. For anyone who missed it, it's the 2nd video on this page. (http://tv.gawker.com/5450032/snl-sounds-off-on-late-night-war?autoplay=true)

SNL's skit take on it (the first video) was bad.

[Turtleboy]

It might be my memory playing tricks on me, but I absolutely remember Jay getting the boot in 2004 so that NBC could keep Conan by giving him Jay's job. I don't remember it being Jay's idea, or Jay saying he would retire. I remember him getting pushed out.

I could certainly be proved wrong by articles from the era, but that's not how I remember it.

tk

Check out the video I posted upthread. Of course that was Jay putting the spin on things.

Edit: Here is the link so you don't have to go searching. http://tv.gawker.com/5450086/jay-lenos-shocking-2004-indian-giving-promise-to-conan-obrien

[pendragn]

Check out the video I posted upthread. Of course that was Jay putting the spin on things.

I'm sitting in a hotel bar right now and can't hear anything. I'll watch it when I get back to my room.

tk

[JYoung]

"Show business" could mean just about anything. Game show host, talk radio, a stand-up tour, hosting the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade on NBC. I don't think anybody figured in 2004 that it meant he'd just move up an hour and a half, perform the same show, and still let Conan follow him. It seems in the five years that followed the 2004 announcement, Leno's desire to remain in "show business" truly meant nothing other than having his face on a regularly scheduled TV broadcast. This of course frightened NBC with the idea of possibly competing against Leno and the rest is history (or soon to be history).


I realize that you hate Leno but please look at this objectively.
Leno never said he was retiring.
Just that he was "giving" The Tonight Show to O'Brien.
End of story there.

It's not his fault that the NBC executives were so short sighted, they assumed that one of the hardest working men on show business, well known for how much he wants to work, would just go away and never be heard from again at the age of 59.

And unless Leno put a gun to Jeff Zucker's head and forced him to give Leno five hours of Primetime, that's not Leno's fault either.



Leno said recently on his show that he was "fired" from the Tonight Show. The clip Turtleboy gave us certainly shows that's not the case when the transition was drawn up in 2004.


Please, that was part of a joke he told during his monologue. He exaggerated the circumstances for comedic effect.

[Rob Helmerichs]

There's a very interesting discussion (http://www.newsfromme.com/archives/2010_01_17.html#018381) of this whole mess by Mark Evanier (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Evanier), a longtime industry insider (he started out writing sitcoms; now he mostly does animation) who has always had an interest in the behind-the-scenes politics of talk shows. He is pretty sympathetic towards Leno, whom he (mostly) thinks is getting a bad rap on this.

[JYoung]

There's a very interesting discussion (http://www.newsfromme.com/archives/2010_01_17.html#018381) of this whole mess by Mark Evanier (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Evanier), a longtime industry insider (he started out writing sitcoms; now he mostly does animation) who has always had an interest in the behind-the-scenes politics of talk shows. He is pretty sympathetic towards Leno, whom he (mostly) thinks is getting a bad rap on this.

Thanks.
I've always considered Evanier a pretty smart guy and I'm still waiting for the Groo the Wanderer movie from him and Aragones

[terpfan1980]

There's a very interesting discussion (http://www.newsfromme.com/archives/2010_01_17.html#018381) of this whole mess by Mark Evanier (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Evanier), a longtime industry insider (he started out writing sitcoms; now he mostly does animation) who has always had an interest in the behind-the-scenes politics of talk shows. He is pretty sympathetic towards Leno, whom he (mostly) thinks is getting a bad rap on this.

I'd give Leno a pass but for one thing... he was most definitely there benefiting when Carson was pushed out and make no mistake, Carson was pushed out. Now years later he was being pushed out and yet he didn't want to go.

I'd swear that I read somewhere that Leno had made comment about potentially retiring or at least seeing the end of the line for his time on TTS back in 2004. Something about that in 2009 he'd be 59 and his wife and he might spend more time together before he turned 60.

Regardless, he stirred up the pot a bit in his comments about going back to TTS if asked (which gave hope to the suits at NBC that they could bring him back and push Conan aside if they choose to) and to be fair, it shouldn't have taken a genius to recognize that 5 nites a week in the 10pm hour wasn't a good idea no matter how much Leno wanted to be on the tube. He could have countered NBC's nutty idea for 5 nites of Leno with a suggestion that perhaps one or two nights a week would be best. Figure one night a week of Leno (in say a Carol Burnett style), at least one night a week of Dateline (hey, air a few more to catch a preditor episodes, they always get people to tune in) and that would have left 3 nights to program for, assuming you don't run two hours of Biggest Loser or something like that.

I said it earlier, and some others have said the same, Carson left and did it with class. Leno didn't want to leave and didn't leave. Because he was still there anyone that didn't care for Conan and didn't want to go along for the ride on the 'new' Conan O'Brien TTS didn't have to. They got to have Leno and then just bailed on the network if they even bothered to watch Leno at all. If Leno wasn't there at all, if he'd taken the Carson approach and just gone off the air except for some occassional specials or something like that, then in all likelyhood no one would be giving him any thought as a villian here and more people would have been sympathetic towards him.

As things stand Conan is getting royally screwed. Leno is getting partly screwed because he's gonna be seen as a villian by some and they may well abandon TTS because of it. The core Leno audience will get older and less profitable and NBC will ask themselves a few years from now if they really made the right decision on who to keep. At that point it's too late and they may wish that they still had the demos that Conan had (and may have at that point, if he gets a new gig).

[murgatroyd]

Great piece, Rob. Thanks for posting the link.

Jan

[JYoung]

I'd give Leno a pass but for one thing... he was most definitely there benefiting when Carson was pushed out and make no mistake, Carson was pushed out. Now years later he was being pushed out and yet he didn't want to go.



Do you have any proof that Carson was pushed out?

Because Mark Evanier disagrees with you:


I have never, by the way, believed the claim that anything Leno or his people did "forced" Carson out. Johnny was the most powerful star in the history of network television and the execs then at NBC lived in absolute terror of him. I can't buy the assertion that when Jay's manager planted one basically-true story in the tabloids — the rumor that some there felt it was time for J.C. to go — Carson felt shoved out the door and left against his will. I think he just realized, with his impeccable timing, that if he didn't leave soon, he might not leave on top.

[terpfan1980]

Do you have any proof that Carson was pushed out?

Because Mark Evanier disagrees with you:

There's little proof that Carson was pushed out because he was too classy to ever make a fuss about giving up the show. I seem to recall a few words along the way (from him or others close to him) that he wasn't looking to retire but I don't have anything specific at this time.

[RayChuang88]

Based on Evanier's comments, I personally thought that Carson was going to officially announce his retirement anyway even if that infamous story Helen Kushnick "planted" in the New York Post in 1991 had never happened--Carson knew that 30 years hosting The Tonight Show, though it made him VERY rich, was starting to be a major drag on his personal life and he wanted a quiet retirement.

As such, NBC should have by 1990 made deals with both Leno and Letterman that 1) Leno gets The Tonight Show hosting gig once Carson retires and 2) Letterman gets a substantial raise to stay at Late Night with David Letterman. But NBC created a PR fiasco that ended up pitting Leno against Letterman, and once Letterman signed up super-agent Mike Ovitz (then the head of Creative Artists Agency) in 1990, it was only a matter of time before Letterman ended up on another network or in syndication on a late night talk show.

Personally, NBC should have given Jay Leno a "golden parachute" to retire from the network altogether. That way:

1) Leno get a nice lump-sum payment for his many years as guest host and main host of The Tonight Show.

2) Leno could devote full-time to live comedy performances, which with his name recognition could garner him US$200,000 per week in salary.

3) O'Brien, without the specter of Leno hanging over him, will find time to hone his "style" to make The Tonight Show better.

[bicker]

How much of your own money would you have paid Leno to agree to never have a television show of his own, again?

[LoadStar]

There's a very interesting discussion (http://www.newsfromme.com/archives/2010_01_17.html#018381) of this whole mess by Mark Evanier (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Evanier), a longtime industry insider (he started out writing sitcoms; now he mostly does animation) who has always had an interest in the behind-the-scenes politics of talk shows. He is pretty sympathetic towards Leno, whom he (mostly) thinks is getting a bad rap on this.

Good read, and it's more or less what I thought all along. In a nutshell: this situation is all Zucked up. Jeff Zucker doesn't appear to deserve to run a Quik-E-Mart, let alone a major broadcast network.

[RayChuang88]

How much of your own money would you have paid Leno to agree to never have a television show of his own, again?

I'd say around US$50 million for a one-time lump-sum payment as a "golden parachute" to retire from NBC. We're forgetting that Leno already has a second very lucrative job doing stand-up comedy shows--a job that could earn Leno at least US$200,000 per week at any large venue in the USA. Leno's fortune earned from hosting The Tonight Show from 1992 to 2009 will keep him in very comfortable retirement even if Leno quits show business altogether.

I do think given these financial circumstances, Leno should go back to his first love--stand-up comedy--and make a very nice and comfortable living doing it. And Leno should show off part of his substantial automotive collection as a rotating exhibit at the Petersen Automotive Museum in Los Angeles, too.

[zalusky]

I'd say around US$50 million for a one-time lump-sum payment as a "golden parachute" to retire from NBC. We're forgetting that Leno already has a second very lucrative job doing stand-up comedy shows--a job that could earn Leno at least US$200,000 per week at any large venue in the USA. Leno's fortune earned from hosting The Tonight Show from 1992 to 2009 will keep him in very comfortable retirement even if Leno quits show business altogether.

I do think given these financial circumstances, Leno should go back to his first love--stand-up comedy--and make a very nice and comfortable living doing it.

Problem is Leno has never spent a dime of his Tonight show money. It's all in the bank. So I don't think money is very persuasive. He want's to be in front of a large audience telling jokes. I also don't think it's about him helping other comics getting a springboard because he hasn't done that the way carson use to do it. IE have them come out and do some standup.

They mostly come out and do bits but thats different then doing straight standup.

[RayChuang88]

Problem is Leno has never spent a dime of his Tonight show money. It's all in the bank. So I don't think money is very persuasive. He want's to be in front of a large audience telling jokes.

Hence my suggestion that Leno go back to his first love: stand-up comedy. US$200,000 per week is a very conservative estimate of his potential earnings, and I'm sure a lot of casinos in Las Vegas and Atlantic City would LOVE to pay him US$500,000 or more per week to headline a show.

Leno, like Johnny Carson late in his career, is starting to reach a point that hosting The Tonight Show is starting to drag on his personal life. If I were Leno, I would have long time ago negotiated a buyout and returned to doing stand-up comedy with a very comfortable income anyway.

[Amnesia]

Leno, like Johnny Carson late in his career, is starting to reach a point that hosting The Tonight Show is starting to drag on his personal life. If Leno agreed with you, I don't see that he would go back to hosting a talk show.

Since he has shown repeated willingness to do so, he doesn't seem to agree that it's "a drag"...

[Fassade]

I'd swear that I read somewhere that Leno had made comment about potentially retiring or at least seeing the end of the line for his time on TTS back in 2004. Something about that in 2009 he'd be 59 and his wife and he might spend more time together before he turned 60.

I posted it a few pages back in this thread; reposting the link (http://www.cnn.com/2004/SHOWBIZ/TV/09/27/leno.obrien/) here, but not the quote.

It was part of an NBC press announcement regarding the switch, not something that came beforehand. Leno talks about Conan as his successor on the Tonight Show, and Conan thanks Jay for his support. In short, everybody says the right things for a press release, nobody specifically mentions retirement, and 5 years later we have a mess :)

[bicker]

Yeah, I know I'd take $50M, but no one thinks my jokes are funny. I'm not sure $50M would be worth it to NBC, but I suspect even more strongly that Leno doesn't care enough about the money, and like previous poster said, you'd have to spend much bigger money to get him to give up performing for a million people each night.

[JYoung]

There's little proof that Carson was pushed out because he was too classy to ever make a fuss about giving up the show. I seem to recall a few words along the way (from him or others close to him) that he wasn't looking to retire but I don't have anything specific at this time.



I honestly find it hard to believe that Leno (and Kushnick) pushed the mighty Carson out.
Carson could have crushed them anytime he wanted to.

[Amnesia]

During tonight's show, Jay gave his point of view on what happened...I would type it all out, but I'm sure that there will be plenty of clips floating around tomorrow...

[vertigo235]

During tonight's show, Jay gave his point of view on what happened...I would type it all out, but I'm sure that there will be plenty of clips floating around tomorrow...

http://tv.msn.com/tv/article.aspx?news=452589&gt1=28103

[marksman]

Personally, NBC should have given Jay Leno a "golden parachute" to retire from the network altogether. That way:

1) Leno get a nice lump-sum payment for his many years as guest host and main host of The Tonight Show.

2) Leno could devote full-time to live comedy performances, which with his name recognition could garner him US$200,000 per week in salary.

3) O'Brien, without the specter of Leno hanging over him, will find time to hone his "style" to make The Tonight Show better.

I suspect Leno would have never agreed to a golden parachute. I suspect as I have said multiple times, he just sort of shrugged his shoulders and said okay/whatever to NBC when they told him he was retiring. He figured something would work out there or somewhere else. He probably didn't feel like he would want to retire in 5 years, but maybe he would... so whatever.

I think if NBC offered Jay money to retire he would have simply refused it. Obviously it would have been a mitigating factor, but there is one thing that seems pretty clear about Jay. He loves cars, and the only thing he might love more than cars is hosting a tv talk show every day he can.

[michad]

I posted it a few pages back in this thread; reposting the link (http://www.cnn.com/2004/SHOWBIZ/TV/09/27/leno.obrien/) here, but not the quote.

It was part of an NBC press announcement regarding the switch, not something that came beforehand. Leno talks about Conan as his successor on the Tonight Show, and Conan thanks Jay for his support. In short, everybody says the right things for a press release, nobody specifically mentions retirement, and 5 years later we have a mess :)


Here's where he says it all http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/6d1caacad1/jay-s-2004-announcement

“When I took this show over, boy there was a lot of animosity between me and Dave, and who’s gonna get it, and quite frankly, a lot of, what I thought, well good friendships were permanently damaged. And I don’t want to see anybody ever have to go through that again. Because, you know this show is like a dynasty, you hold it, and then you hand it off to the next person. And I don’t wanna see all the fighting and all the ‘who’s better’ and nasty things back and forth in the press, so right now, here it is, Conan, it’s yours, see you in 5 years buddy. Clear enough?”

[marksman]

This is something I agree with from the What Went Wrong article:

As I'll explain, I don't think he did that...or at least, Jay did less to get Conan fired than Conan's people did to get Jay fired.

For people wanting to hate on Jay, I suspect an analysis would place blame on Conan/Conan's camp and starting this whole thing in the first place, more than it would be on Jay ending up back there.

Like I have said though, I don't blame either one of them. I think they both were doing what they felt was best for them and their careers. It is not their job or responsibility to make sure the network does not screw someone else over.

Me, I'm going to guess that the revived Tonight Show with Jay Leno will do less well than the old one...that is, unless they do a helluva makeover on it. If it's only as good as his 10 PM show, it'll probably still improve somewhat on the numbers Conan was getting before the current controversy gave him a little boost...but not enough to justify losing O'Brien.

I also suspect that will be true as well. I think with Jay back on the Tonight Show he will ultimately see his ratings lower than when he left. They will certainly be up when he first comes back, but after settling in, I think they will be off a noticeable amount from where they were.. but still better than what Conan has been doing.

I would love to know what percentage of people who watched Jay at 10:00pm also watched Conan at 11:30pm.

That Mark Evanier article is a good read, and seems pretty much on point all through it. I think he sums up very well how none of this needed to happen for NBC to accomplish their goals, at pretty much all phases of the process.

[marksman]

Here's where he says it all http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/6d1caacad1/jay-s-2004-announcement

“When I took this show over, boy there was a lot of animosity between me and Dave, and who’s gonna get it, and quite frankly, a lot of, what I thought, well good friendships were permanently damaged. And I don’t want to see anybody ever have to go through that again. Because, you know this show is like a dynasty, you hold it, and then you hand it off to the next person. And I don’t wanna see all the fighting and all the ‘who’s better’ and nasty things back and forth in the press, so right now, here it is, Conan, it’s yours, see you in 5 years buddy. Clear enough?”

I don't get the point though?

Jay did graciously step aside. NBC then offered him a 10:00pm show and he took it. Then NBC fired Conan.

How did Jay not keep his word?

Jay could have insisted 12-18 months ago that he was not going to leave and he was going to keep the Tonight Show. I suspect NBC would have let him do so.

Instead Jay stepped aside, as he said he would. He didn't say he was going to step away from television and retire. He said he would step aside and let Conan have his shot. Jay is not the arbiter of when and how Conan got his shot at the Tonight Show. That is again, NBC.

[terpfan1980]

I don't get the point though?

Jay did graciously step aside. NBC then offered him a 10:00pm show and he took it. Then NBC fired Conan.

How did Jay not keep his word?

Jay could have insisted 12-18 months ago that he was not going to leave and he was going to keep the Tonight Show. I suspect NBC would have let him do so.

Instead Jay stepped aside, as he said he would. He didn't say he was going to step away from television and retire. He said he would step aside and let Conan have his shot. Jay is not the arbiter of when and how Conan got his shot at the Tonight Show. That is again, NBC.

Jay didn't truly keep his word because he was going to leave NBC and go elsewhere and do a show. Be that ABC, FOX or wherever. NBC got wind of it and decided to keep him (via non-compete clauses and via offering him a show at 10pm nightly).

If NBC wanted to go with their 10pm Leno experiment they might actually have gotten away with it if they reduced the number of episodes per week (as I suggested before) and/or if they'd have waited for a more reasonable period of time before bringing Leno back -- especially if they were going to continue with the plan for 5 nights a week of Leno. In other words if they'd have waited at least a year or so before bringing Leno back they'd have given Conan a real chance to find an audience and they'd have left no choice for the Leno viewers like they did as was... no way to watch Leno and then abandon the network after that. If you wanted an NBC late night product you'd have to go with TTS or go elsewhere. The viewers might have run off to other networks, but then again some of that is dependent upon the guests that Conan could get (and without competition from Leno the quality of the guests on TTS would have been better) and some of it would have depended upon Conan's performance and people warming up to him or deciding that they just can't take him no matter what.

Knowing that Leno was coming back after such a short period of time away let people abandon Conan while waiting for their beloved Jay to return. Despite Ebersol's comments blasting Conan he really wasn't given adequate support or even a fair chance.

[Neenahboy]

Conan's latest Craigslist entry. :D

http://losangeles.craigslist.org/sfv/cas/1558679241.html

Text in case the link goes bye-bye:

- Tall, slender redhead available for nighttime recreation.

- 6’4”, completely ripped, VERY Caucasian.

- Drapes match the carpet.

- Currently homeless, must meet at your place.

- Can go a whole hour (with scheduled breaks every 7-10 minutes).

- Fatties welcome.

- Not afraid to take two people at once, and then a musical guest.

- NOTE: If you want me to perform after midnight, it'll cost you!

[dtle]

There's a very interesting discussion (http://www.newsfromme.com/archives/2010_01_17.html#018381) of this whole mess by Mark Evanier (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Evanier), a longtime industry insider (he started out writing sitcoms; now he mostly does animation) who has always had an interest in the behind-the-scenes politics of talk shows. He is pretty sympathetic towards Leno, whom he (mostly) thinks is getting a bad rap on this.

Moral of the story: Don't develop more than one talented guy for late night. Eventually, the other talented guy would want the coveted 11:30 slot and is willing to go anywhere else to get it.

[JYoung]

Jay didn't truly keep his word because he was going to leave NBC and go elsewhere and do a show. Be that ABC, FOX or wherever. NBC got wind of it and decided to keep him (via non-compete clauses and via offering him a show at 10pm nightly).


I'm still not seeing how this is not keeping his word. Even in the announcement linked earlier, Leno said he wasn't quitting show business.


Knowing that Leno was coming back after such a short period of time away let people abandon Conan while waiting for their beloved Jay to return. Despite Ebersol's comments blasting Conan he really wasn't given adequate support or even a fair chance.

While I agree NBC screwed O'Brien, his Tonight Show ratings were low before Leno's show started up.
O'Brien wasn't abandoned as much as he never developed enough of an audience in the earlier time slot in the first place.



Moral of the story: Don't develop more than one talented guy for late night. Eventually, the other talented guy would want the coveted 11:30 slot and is willing to go anywhere else to get it.

With Fallon, I don't think they have any worries there as far as talent goes.

[gastrof]

But did the ratings for the Tonight Show drop when Conan took over, or did they stay about where they were?

[scottjf8]

Watching Jay's show tonight - he told his version of the story. Very interesting.

[Fassade]

Watching Jay's show tonight - he told his version of the story. Very interesting.

Assuming this is what you saw, Jay's POV is available on Hulu (http://www.hulu.com/watch/121471/the-jay-leno-show-jays-pov) already (just under 4 and a half minutes)

[scottjf8]

Assuming this is what you saw, Jay's POV is available on Hulu (http://www.hulu.com/watch/121471/the-jay-leno-show-jays-pov) already (just under 4 and a half minutes)

yah that's it. I'm on the west coast, so I just saw it on the JL Show.

[mbklein]

Jay did graciously step aside. NBC then offered him a 10:00pm show and he took it. Then NBC fired Conan.

NBC didn't fire Conan. NBC decided to keep Conan, but move his show. If Jay didn't want to be on NBC any more, Conan would most likely still be hosting The Tonight Show in the 11:30 timeslot. Unless you think Jeff Zucker is some kind of evil genius who can see into men's souls, NBC's moves were all geared toward keeping Jay off another network, not about getting rid of Conan.

[DevdogAZ]

Jay Leno in his own words. Watch the whole clip

http://tv.gawker.com/5450086/jay-lenos-shocking-2004-indian-giving-promise-to-conan-obrien
And he did exactly as he said he would. He graciously gave The Tonight Show to Conan in 2009.
You state that Conan forced the issue, and "forced Jay to retire early." I honestly don't see that at all, and I've never seen anything out there that would back that statement up. Jay announced that he was retiring, WAY before it was announced that Conan would get The Tonight Show. And frankly, at that point, Conan was perfectly happy doing Late Night. He was getting very good press, he was nominated for academy awards yearly (and in fact won one in 2007). Did he want something bigger such as The Tonight Show? Sure, but force the issue? I don't think so.
I've never seen anything to back up that position. In fact, I don't even think that position is defensible with all the information that's out there. It's pretty well established that Conan was getting offers to leave NBC, but that The Tonight Show was what he always wanted, so he agreed to stay at NBC for five more years if he could then get TTS.
I liked Seth Meyer's marriage analogy about this situation on Weekend Update. First thing that made me see it from Jay's side at all. Although I still think he should have just sucked it up and retired like he said he would.
Once again, Leno never said he'd retire. He just said he'd give up The Tonight Show, and he did exactly that.
Personally, NBC should have given Jay Leno a "golden parachute" to retire from the network altogether. That way:

1) Leno get a nice lump-sum payment for his many years as guest host and main host of The Tonight Show.

2) Leno could devote full-time to live comedy performances, which with his name recognition could garner him US$200,000 per week in salary.

3) O'Brien, without the specter of Leno hanging over him, will find time to hone his "style" to make The Tonight Show better.
Two problems with your plan - First, NBC had the option just this past week to pay Leno a big lump-sum to go away, and they didn't want to do that. Whether they couldn't afford it, or wanted him back, that's obviously not something NBC is willing to do. Second, Leno doesn't care about the money.
Jay didn't truly keep his word because he was going to leave NBC and go elsewhere and do a show.
Leno never said he was leaving the network. He simply said he was leaving The Tonight Show (because NBC was making him do it), and he did exactly that.
But did the ratings for the Tonight Show drop when Conan took over, or did they stay about where they were?
They dropped like a rock. Check out this chart from TVbythenumbers.com (http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/01/13/obrien-might-still-be-at-1135-if-team-conan-had-watched-the-tonight-show/38787):

http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/5581/conanvslettermanjaneigh.gif

Leno had a 2.3 in viewers 18-49 when he left. Conan's first week he had a 2.3 rating. By the second week, he was in the 1.5 range, and by late August, before Leno's show ever came on the air, Conan had settled into the 1.1 range. A better measurement is that for Leno's final season on The Tonight Show, his average was a 1.4 with about 5 million viewers. In the week before this whole storm broke, Conan had a 1.0 with about 2.5 million viewers. That's a loss of half the viewers, and a significant drop off in the desirable demographic.

[Rob Helmerichs]

Mark Evanier has more to say (http://www.newsfromme.com/archives/2010_01_19.html#018393)...

[ElJay]

AP sums up Leno's talk from last night:

Leno gave his audience a history lesson, or what alternately might have seemed a skillfully timed effort to repair any damage to Leno's trademark heart-of-gold image before the deal is made official, as soon as Tuesday.
...
With a plan in place for Leno to leave "Tonight" in May 2009, before his NBC contract ended, he would be prevented from starting at another network for at least a year, Leno said. He asked to be freed but NBC refused, instead suggesting that Leno could do well with a prime-time show that the network acknowledged would get "killed" against first-run episodes of shows like CBS' "CSI" but could get traction against summer reruns.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34930548/

As we knew already, this all stems from NBC being afraid of competing against Leno.

Leno, in explaining events from his standpoint, also said Monday that he had told NBC he'd return to the "Tonight" slot only after Conan O'Brien rejected the network's plan to put both men on in late night.

That's an interesting way to frame it. Leno will go to 11:35 only if Conan O'Brien rejects going to 12:05? "Yeah, I'll go back to 11:35, just find a way to push Conan out please."

[Amnesia]

"Yeah, I'll go back to 11:35, just find a way to push Conan out please."Where are you getting that? What would make you suggest that Leno ever expressed a desire to push Conan out?

[JYoung]

Where are you getting that? What would make you suggest that Leno ever expressed a desire to push Conan out?

ElJay just can't see Leno as anything other than an evil genius who sits in a big chair, his face in shadow, who plots to ruin O'Brien's career as he cackles gleefully and strokes a white cat in his lap.

Of course, ElJay conveniently forgets that the original plan was Leno at 11:35 and O'Brien at 12:05, which O'Brien balked at and decided to walk over.

[MickeS]

NBC didn't fire Conan. NBC decided to keep Conan, but move his show. If Jay didn't want to be on NBC any more, Conan would most likely still be hosting The Tonight Show in the 11:30 timeslot. Unless you think Jeff Zucker is some kind of evil genius who can see into men's souls, NBC's moves were all geared toward keeping Jay off another network, not about getting rid of Conan.

The bolded parts contradict eachother. By all accounts, Jay DIDN'T necessarily want to be on NBC anymore. But it didn't matter to NBC, they wanted to keep him, and were willing to push The Tonight Show back half an hour to make it so.

[vertigo235]

Jay said last night that he just wanted I work. But NBC wouldn't release him from his contract. So unless he wanted to wait his contract out. He couldn't leave NBC.

[DevdogAZ]

The interesting thing about Jay's version of the story, which I don't think we've discussed yet (because nobody knew this until last night), is that Jay asked to be let out of his contract when he left The Tonight Show, and NBC refused. He again asked to be let out of his contract in the last couple of weeks, and again NBC refused. I think Leno would love to take his act and his staff and go to another network and stick it to NBC. But since they won't release him from his contract, and won't pay him to remain idle, and he wants to continue working, his only choice is to do what NBC tells him to do, which is do a show at 11:35 once the Olympics end.

[marksman]

NBC didn't fire Conan. NBC decided to keep Conan, but move his show. If Jay didn't want to be on NBC any more, Conan would most likely still be hosting The Tonight Show in the 11:30 timeslot. Unless you think Jeff Zucker is some kind of evil genius who can see into men's souls, NBC's moves were all geared toward keeping Jay off another network, not about getting rid of Conan.

Well I think you could argue what has happened to Conan. I think Conan would view it as him being fired from the Tonight Show. Especially now that Jay has it.

Sure NBC's take is different, but I have tended to avoided siding with NBC in this whole mess because they have proven themselves to be incapable of doing a single thing right in the whole mess.

I take that back.. I guess they got the net effect of Losing Conan, and having Leno on the Tonight Show, while keeping Conan for 5 more years.

5 years ago, they could have let Conan go and had accomplished the same thing. So I guess if having Conan on at 12:35 for 5 years was worth everything that has happened to the network now, then maybe it was worth it. Something tells me it is not likely.