Jay Leno is killing NBC

[zalusky]

I am amazed he has the bandwidth to do 5 shows a week, do the comedy clubs, vegas, Popular Mechanics columns, Jays Garage, and sit with his writers plus whatever else I am missing.

[Turtleboy]

I am amazed he has the bandwidth to do 5 shows a week, do the comedy clubs, vegas, Popular Mechanics columns, Jays Garage, and sit with his writers plus whatever else I am missing.

When we saw him last year in Vegas, his act was old and stale. It was made up of Tonight Show Monologues from 10-15 years ago. He was making jokes about Bill Clinton being horny.

[jsmeeker]

and VCRs flashing 12:00 and his parents being recommended "Basic Instinct"

Jay seems like a decent guy and all.. but oy... That act was old.

[pjenkins]

He was making jokes about Bill Clinton being horny.

that's still the case I"m sure ;)

[zalusky]

When we saw him last year in Vegas, his act was old and stale. It was made up of Tonight Show Monologues from 10-15 years ago. He was making jokes about Bill Clinton being horny.

I am just talking about the time involved with all these activities not about their quality.

[ellinj]

and VCRs flashing 12:00 and his parents being recommended "Basic Instinct"

Jay seems like a decent guy and all.. but oy... That act was old.

While I agree that 50-60% of the act was old, I don't think it was ALL 10-15years old. There was some current stuff in there. I think I heard the vcr bit about 10years ago when I saw him in RI.

Personally I think they should do a 2-3night/week deal on NBC@10

[smak]

While I agree that 50-60% of the act was old, I don't think it was ALL 10-15years old. There was some current stuff in there. I think I heard the vcr bit about 10years ago when I saw him in RI.

Personally I think they should do a 2-3night/week deal on NBC@10

This is what will happen. NBC will find some great 10pm type pilot, and they'll buy it, and there goes one of Jay's days, and so on and so on.

-smak-

[bicker]

For now, they'll just present the program at 9PM.

[lew]

For now, they'll just present the program at 9PM.

I'm sure Comcast (if the sale goes through) will re-think the Leno show for the season that begins in 9/2010. The question is what kind of ratings will Leno get in December when the other networks are airing reruns.

[bicker]

I'm sure whoever owns NBCU would rethink everything every year, but I suspect that they're going to keep Leno working through at least May 2011.

[marksman]

So I noticed today that Jay Leno will not be on tomorrow. They are going 1 hour with the Presidential Address and two hours with The Biggest Loser.

Seems very interesting. Sweeps are over... Why couldn't they push Biggest loser back and put some filler in? ABC is not carrying the presidential address and others are giving up only 30 minutes.

Seems like an "excuse" to not have Jay on, and I suspect more and more excuses will show up in the future. What is additionally weird is they have been beating their drum about how well Jay will do when repeats start (Not up against repeats really but like Victoria Secret's one off and maybe the Forgotten), but still. Seems an odd move given everything they have said.

[Steveknj]

So I noticed today that Jay Leno will not be on tomorrow. They are going 1 hour with the Presidential Address and two hours with The Biggest Loser.

Seems very interesting. Sweeps are over... Why couldn't they push Biggest loser back and put some filler in? ABC is not carrying the presidential address and others are giving up only 30 minutes.

Seems like an "excuse" to not have Jay on, and I suspect more and more excuses will show up in the future. What is additionally weird is they have been beating their drum about how well Jay will do when repeats start (Not up against repeats really but like Victoria Secret's one off and maybe the Forgotten), but still. Seems an odd move given everything they have said.

Lowest rated show gets the short straw in this case. Probably easier to reschedule a show like Leno than to start mucking around with taped series. Did they originally have 2 hours of Biggest Loser scheduled for tonight?

[DevdogAZ]

Biggest Loser is one of NBC's highest rated shows and being a reality show where contestants are kicked off every week, there are a specific number of episodes that have to be shown in a specific timeframe. They don't want to get to Christmas and have one episode left to air in the new year. They want to wrap it up as scheduled. It seems pretty easy to bump Leno for one day, even though Tuesdays has been Leno's best rated show with the lead-in it gets from Biggest Loser.

[marksman]

Wonder how NBC is feeling these days? Leno in the tank. Tonight Show has worst November Sweeps since 1993.

Well at least Jay leno's show is cheap right?

[MickeS]

I think they are feeling "What the hell were we thinking when we insisted on hiring Conan?" :)

In retrospect, that really shook up the entire line-up... interesting how things turned out.

[LoadStar]

How bad are the ratings for Fallon's show?

[lambertman]

Generally, Ferguson and Fallon have been tying in the demo at 0.5.

[Turtleboy]

I think they are feeling "What the hell were we thinking when we insisted on hiring Conan?" :)

In retrospect, that really shook up the entire line-up... interesting how things turned out.

Having Conan replace Jay for the Tonight Show was a mistake. A few years back they were afraid that Conan was going to jump to another network at 1130 when his contract was up.

Whether he would have or wouldn't have is unknown, and even more so, is whether he would have sucked a lot of viewers from the Tonight Show with Jay Leno.

But once they made the decision they should have stuck with it, and let Jay go. Jay would have gone to another network at 1130pm.

NBC couldn't have both Jay and Conan at 1130. They should have made a single decision and stuck with it.

What they have now, is crap and the worst of all worlds.

[marksman]

I agree they should have picked one or another.

The funny thing is they tried not to repeat the letterman mistake again, so they made an even bigger mistake.

They were so afraid to lose Conan they screwed the pooch. I enjoy Conan, but he was never Letterman.

What they should have done is kept Jay once they realized he did not want to retire and pay the 50 million or whatever to buy Conan off. That would have gotten them much further.

Instead they seemed to pile bad decision on top of bad decision, all in the name of not repeating a previously bad decision.

The weird thing is they said wait until re-runs. When do those come in the summer? Yes lots of shows have been in re-runs, but even as we hit this shallow holiday season there are 1 or 2 new shows on some network or cable channel most nights at the same time as Leno, with new episodes.

I am now thinking that NBC will use the Winter Olympics as some sort of escape hatch, and we could see major changes as soon as right after the end of the olympics.

[LoadStar]

I am now thinking that NBC will use the Winter Olympics as some sort of escape hatch, and we could see major changes as soon as right after the end of the olympics.

Doubt it. Nothing fundamentally has changed - the same people are in the same positions making the same decisions. I see them riding out the season, then doing marginal changes next season, much as what the networks did following the WGA strike, until Comcast takes over.

There are too many people there at NBC that seem to be convinced what they are doing is somehow working, despite evidence to the contrary.

[DevdogAZ]

It has nothing to do with whether or not they think they're doing the right thing. They simply don't have anything else in the pipeline to put in that slot. They're stuck with Leno at 10 pm for at least the rest of this season. And given that the Comcast deal likely won't be finalized until after next season starts, they may be unwilling to make any big changes before that, which would mean a second season of Leno.

[Turtleboy]

It has nothing to do with whether or not they think they're doing the right thing. They simply don't have anything else in the pipeline to put in that slot. They're stuck with Leno at 10 pm for at least the rest of this season. And given that the Comcast deal likely won't be finalized until after next season starts, they may be unwilling to make any big changes before that, which would mean a second season of Leno.

I think they could drum up some reality TV that as crappy as it would be, could do better than Leno.

And there must be replacement shows lying around somewhere. They could even be truly experimental in trying things.

[DevdogAZ]

I think they could drum up some reality TV that as crappy as it would be, could do better than Leno.

And there must be replacement shows lying around somewhere. They could even be truly experimental in trying things.
I'll grant you that it would be possible. But I maintain that it is highly unlikely. Especially since reality shows wouldn't do well at 10 pm, so they'd have to move things around, and they really only have a couple of shows on their roster that would work at 10 pm.

[getreal]

I think they could drum up some reality TV that as crappy as it would be, could do better than Leno.

And there must be replacement shows lying around somewhere. They could even be truly experimental in trying things.

Great idea!

How about "Who Wants To Be A Talk Show Host", where each episode (it really should only be once a week, though) features a different host with a completely new set and format.

It would be nice to see sketch comedy/variety shows like from the 70s ... a la Carol Burnett, Smothers Brothers, Laugh-In, etc.

[LoadStar]

I'd be curious to see how sweet a deal Leno managed to get himself. I bet his agent probably got him a 2 or 3 season guarantee, minimum. As in, he gets paid for the full season orders, whether or not NBC reduces the order or cancels it outright.

If that's the case, then even if they come up with reality TV that does better than Leno, they'd still be better off keeping Leno on the air... the cost of the reality TV show combined with the penalty clause to Leno would likely be higher than the cost of just keeping Leno on the air.

[DancnDude]

Great idea!

How about "Who Wants To Be A Talk Show Host", where each episode (it really should only be once a week, though) features a different host with a completely new set and format.

It would be nice to see sketch comedy/variety shows like from the 70s ... a la Carol Burnett, Smothers Brothers, Laugh-In, etc.

Bring back the Muppet Show!

[bicker]

I'd be curious to see how sweet a deal Leno managed to get himself. I bet his agent probably got him a 2 or 3 season guarantee, minimum.It's public knowledge that he's got a 2 season guarantee.

[rockislandmike]

I think the idea is that 1) they see the "Coming up on news at 11:" promos and are supposed to want to stay and watch it, and 2) yeah, people are lazy, which is why they try and segue into the news very quickly after the previous show.

People are very "sticky", a term in the broadcasting industry, both in terms of television, radio, and almost anything in fact. That's why people always talk about good lead-ins, because even during prime-time, people are more likely to just stay on one channel all evening if they have no major impetus to.

It also works in real life. After being merged to one lane, watch how many people in front of you stay in the lane, versus going back to the other lane - which is why I *always* move to the other lane.

[aintnosin]

I seem to remember that Jay didn't start to beat Dave at 11:30 until the "Hugh Grant incident."

Lesson: Jay needs to book Tiger Woods... Now.

[DevdogAZ]

I seem to remember that Jay didn't start to beat Dave at 11:30 until the "Hugh Grant incident."

Lesson: Jay needs to book Tiger Woods... Now.
Solid point. That would be a huge "get." Although, IIRC, Hugh Grant was already booked on the Tonight Show when the incident came to light, and he simply didn't cancel the appearance.

No way Tiger goes on TV to do any of these shows when he's demanding privacy.

[LoadStar]

I seem to remember that Jay didn't start to beat Dave at 11:30 until the "Hugh Grant incident."

Lesson: Jay needs to book Tiger Woods... Now.

He got Kanye after the VMAs (well, already had him booked before the incident, much like with Hugh Grant). Not big enough of a "get"?

[aintnosin]

No way Tiger goes on TV to do any of these shows when he's demanding privacy.
I know, but it's about the only thing that can prop up Leno's ratings. So Jay is basically dog meat, a show waiting for the network to figure out a way out of Leno's contract.

[marksman]

Doubt it. Nothing fundamentally has changed - the same people are in the same positions making the same decisions. I see them riding out the season, then doing marginal changes next season, much as what the networks did following the WGA strike, until Comcast takes over.

There are too many people there at NBC that seem to be convinced what they are doing is somehow working, despite evidence to the contrary.

I don't know. Wasn't silvermen kicked out in July after this was all in place. Gaspin is in charge of the Entertainment Division now and might have a different take on things. I thought he came over from USA, so he would not have been involved in the Leno thing at all.

By July it was already well in place.

As for replacements, they have to have a couple projects potentially available to them. There are always projects out there that might be viable. They also can go back to abusing Dateline 3 nights a week. That takes care of the bulk of the problem and allows them some more flexibility in moving some shows to 9/10 as well.

If this Leno thing lasts for 2 years, NBC will be a mess. Gaspin has been responsible for running the NBC Universal owned Cable channels, and they have been doing extremely well, especially compared to NBC. So I don't expect him to just sit there and do nothing... at least I hope it is not his plan.

[DevdogAZ]

I don't know. Wasn't silvermen kicked out in July after this was all in place. Gaspin is in charge of the Entertainment Division now and might have a different take on things. I thought he came over from USA, so he would not have been involved in the Leno thing at all.

By July it was already well in place.

As for replacements, they have to have a couple projects potentially available to them. There are always projects out there that might be viable. They also can go back to abusing Dateline 3 nights a week. That takes care of the bulk of the problem and allows them some more flexibility in moving some shows to 9/10 as well.

If this Leno thing lasts for 2 years, NBC will be a mess. Gaspin has been responsible for running the NBC Universal owned Cable channels, and they have been doing extremely well, especially compared to NBC. So I don't expect him to just sit there and do nothing... at least I hope it is not his plan.
I think nobody has been wanting to rock the boat because of the Comcast deal and because the theory that Leno would rate better when the competition was in reruns. Once we get through January and they've had a chance to see how he does when he's the only new program on, and now that the Comcast deal is in place, perhaps we'll see some movement. But I still say that they have nothing better to replace him with, and they can't conjure content out of thin air.

[Turtleboy]

But Jay getting a big guest screws Conan. The big gets are supposed to be on the Tonight Show and not a competing show an hour earlier.

[LoadStar]

I don't know. Wasn't silvermen kicked out in July after this was all in place. Gaspin is in charge of the Entertainment Division now and might have a different take on things. I thought he came over from USA, so he would not have been involved in the Leno thing at all.

I don't know that Silverman had much to do with the Leno nonsense. That was all Zucker, and Zucker is still in charge at NBC.

[Steveknj]

But Jay getting a big guest screws Conan. The big gets are supposed to be on the Tonight Show and not a competing show an hour earlier.


I think part of this problem is that they moved Conan out to California. If they had kept him in NYC, he might have been able to get the guests that Leno wasn't going to (not to mention take some away from Letterman).

[marksman]

I don't know.

This Variety article back from the time when Silverman left seems to indicate he was heavily involved with the Jay Leno thing.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118006519.html?categoryid=14&cs=1

Also since Gaspin also works for Zuckerman but USA, for example, does not suck like NBC does, I would have to question how much Zuckerman has to do specifically with the programming of any of the channels.

[DevdogAZ]

I think part of this problem is that they moved Conan out to California. If they had kept him in NYC, he might have been able to get the guests that Leno wasn't going to (not to mention take some away from Letterman).
Sorry, but this doesn't make any sense. As much as Jimmy Kimmel may have preferred it, you can't have both major network late night shows originating from the same city. The way it works now, you have stars that live/work in NYC or are on promo tours in NYC. They do Letterman and maybe Fallon. Stars that live/work in LA or are on promo tours in LA do Conan and maybe Ferguson and Kimmel. If both major shows were in NY, you'd miss out on all the stars that live/work in LA, and you'd end up with conflicts where an actor is only in NYC for one day, which show does he do? Or if he's there for two days, he does the competing shows on back-to-back nights, which is also awkward. Having the two shows on opposite coasts makes way more sense.

[Steveknj]

Sorry, but this doesn't make any sense. As much as Jimmy Kimmel may have preferred it, you can't have both major network late night shows originating from the same city. The way it works now, you have stars that live/work in NYC or are on promo tours in NYC. They do Letterman and maybe Fallon. Stars that live/work in LA or are on promo tours in LA do Conan and maybe Ferguson and Kimmel. If both major shows were in NY, you'd miss out on all the stars that live/work in LA, and you'd end up with conflicts where an actor is only in NYC for one day, which show does he do? Or if he's there for two days, he does the competing shows on back-to-back nights, which is also awkward. Having the two shows on opposite coasts makes way more sense.

All true, if you didn't through Leno into the mix. Now you have two shows on NBC fighting for the same guests. It hurts BOTH shows. What you described is exactly my point about moving Conan to the coast, which NBC show does the guest go on? The one in prime time (with potentially more viewers) or the one late night (with less viewers, but a more traditional time slot)? And if you think about it, a celebrity could do Leno in Primetime and then Kimmel latenight covering both timeslots. This pretty much KILLS Conan.

[DevdogAZ]

All true, if you didn't through Leno into the mix. Now you have two shows on NBC fighting for the same guests. It hurts BOTH shows. What you described is exactly my point about moving Conan to the coast, which NBC show does the guest go on? The one in prime time (with potentially more viewers) or the one late night (with less viewers, but a more traditional time slot)? And if you think about it, a celebrity could do Leno in Primetime and then Kimmel latenight covering both timeslots. This pretty much KILLS Conan.
But the point is that Conan and Leno aren't supposed to be considered competitors. Conan and Letterman are competitors. For one of the network late night shows to not have a presence in SoCal would be a horrible decision.

But based on what you're saying, maybe they should have moved Leno to NYC, to steal guests from Dave. That would have been interesting to see. However, that never would have happened. There are more guests in LA and Jay isn't at a point in his career to pack up and move.

[DianaMo]

I'm surprised the Leno show never re-aired their "All McCartney" show...even during the writer's strike.

</hint>

[marksman]

Seems leno show is doing a little better against all re-runs.

http://www.contactmusic.com/news.nsf/story/leno-improves-against-reruns----slightly_1126514

Well maybe not as well in DFW market where I live:

http://www.pegasusnews.com/news/2009/dec/01/jay-leno-vs-reruns-still-bust-dallas-fort-worth-ra/

All this seems to be from a few weeks ago. Anyone else have more rating info against reruns. I know this was their big rallying cry that wait until the re-runs.

Living in DFW it seems insane to me that Fox4 news draws double the audience in 18-49 as another Network program.

[dswallow]

Seems leno show is doing a little better against all re-runs.

http://www.contactmusic.com/news.nsf/story/leno-improves-against-reruns----slightly_1126514

Well maybe not as well in DFW market where I live:

http://www.pegasusnews.com/news/2009/dec/01/jay-leno-vs-reruns-still-bust-dallas-fort-worth-ra/

All this seems to be from a few weeks ago. Anyone else have more rating info against reruns. I know this was their big rallying cry that wait until the re-runs.

Living in DFW it seems insane to me that Fox4 news draws double the audience in 18-49 as another Network program.

And we also really don't know how well the 5 scripted drama's NBC could have been showing in place of Leno would do in reruns instead of Leno, too.

[smak]

And we also really don't know how well the 5 scripted drama's NBC could have been showing in place of Leno would do in reruns instead of Leno, too.

And with advertising on Hulu, and with DVD sales, etc...

I guess they did the numbers and think it'll work out.

Also, Leno might do better against reruns, but maybe the summer show that they would have had in that timeslot would have done well too.

I fugure the ratings of a normal 10pm show, plus whatever they put on during the summer would beat Leno's ratings overall, but would be way more expensive to produce.

Also, Christmas time is where the networks put on reruns. But during the summer there's a lot of original programming. Especially on the cable networks.

-smak-

[LoadStar]

And we also really don't know how well the 5 scripted drama's NBC could have been showing in place of Leno would do in reruns instead of Leno, too.

We also don't know how well The Tonight Show would do by itself, without the influence of the Jay Leno Show. All we do know is that overall, the ratings for the Tonight Show are down considerably from those when the Tonight Show (with Jay Leno) was running without "competition" from an earlier running talk show.

I wonder if NBC factored that into their calculations, that the presence of the Jay Leno Show would have a depressing effect upon the ratings for The Tonight Show.

(I'll grant that the flagging ratings for The Tonight Show are not solely attributed to The Jay Leno Show pulling audience away... some, possibly even most, can be attributed to Conan O'Brien himself.)

[marksman]

And we also really don't know how well the 5 scripted drama's NBC could have been showing in place of Leno would do in reruns instead of Leno, too.

Yeah but the cost of re-running a show is probably less than a new leno show (although I don't know this for a fact)... and it seems a lot of reruns from other networks do better than Leno, so one could assume if NBC didn't suck at picking shows they could potentially do it as well.

[smak]

Yeah but the cost of re-running a show is probably less than a new leno show (although I don't know this for a fact)... and it seems a lot of reruns from other networks do better than Leno, so one could assume if NBC didn't suck at picking shows they could potentially do it as well.

Part of the cost of a new leno show is Leno's (at least) 35 million salary.

You could probably add up all the salaries on those 5 shows and not hit 35 million.

I think they did the math and said that if we get a certain rating we will make a certain profit.

They probably did it based on the previous years horrible numbers, and said man, Jay is so much cheaper overall, it's gotta be a good idea.

I doubt they figured out everything though. Like having to pass on a show that turns out to be a huge hit, because they have no place to put it.

-smak-

[aindik]

Part of the cost of a new leno show is Leno's (at least) 35 million salary.

You could probably add up all the salaries on those 5 shows and not hit 35 million.

Does he make that much? I thought it was in the 20s with ratings-based incentives built in (which I can't imagine he's hitting).

In any event, it doesn't matter, by itself, how much he makes versus how much actors on 5 dramas would make. What matters is how much NBC pays for his show versus how much NBC pays for other shows.

According to this article from the time the Leno show was announced, the per episode cost of an average hour long drama is $3 million (what the network pays to the studio that produces the drama). The per episode cost of the Jay Leno Show is $400k.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE54S0AA20090529

That's $15 million per week of new drama, versus $2 million a week for Leno. How many weeks should we assume they'll buy in a year? If we say 30 weeks of drama versus 48 weeks of Leno, with reruns (which I assume are "free") in the remaining weeks, that's a cost of $450 million for dramas versus $96 million for Leno.

If we assume the dramas made $45 million in profit for the network, a 10% margin, that means they billed $495 in revenue. All Leno has to do is bill $142 million in revenue to do better for the network in terms of profit. (Yes, I'm doing a lot of assuming. And yes, that is without considering the drag on the ratings in the rest of the day, to the extent that drag exists).

I think they did the math and said that if we get a certain rating we will make a certain profit.

They probably did it based on the previous years horrible numbers, and said man, Jay is so much cheaper overall, it's gotta be a good idea.

I doubt they figured out everything though. Like having to pass on a show that turns out to be a huge hit, because they have no place to put it.

-smak-

Even with only 10 hours a week of non-Leno prime time programming instead of 15 (not including weekends), they have plenty of places on the schedule where they can stick a hit show. They still have things that could stand to be replaced.

[DevdogAZ]

And I think we've seen articles talking about how ads on Leno's show are selling for about half what ads on other 10pm dramas are selling for. So it should be fairly easy for NBC to sell $150 million in ads on Leno vs. selling over $400 million in ads on a drama. From a pure profit standpoint, it seems like a no brainer.

Now whether it does long-term damage to the network, that's a completely different story. I'm willing to bet that the suits at NBC really thought that there was an appetite for something different in the 10pm slot and that this show would surprise the naysayers. That simply hasn't happened.

[SorenTodd]

According to an interview on KNX 1070 radio (Los Angeles), Leno's show will be pulled after the Olympics are over.

http://www.knx1070.com/topic/play_window.php?audioType=Episode&audioId=4299108

[MickeS]

According to an interview on KNX 1070 radio (Los Angeles), Leno's show will be pulled after the Olympics are over.

Who was the interview with?

[Steveknj]

According to an interview on KNX 1070 radio (Los Angeles), Leno's show will be pulled after the Olympics are over.

In interview with who?

[aindik]

In interview with who?

Someone from FTVLive.com.

[LoadStar]

According to an interview on KNX 1070 radio (Los Angeles), Leno's show will be pulled after the Olympics are over.

http://www.knx1070.com/topic/play_window.php?audioType=Episode&audioId=4299108

NBC denies the rumor:
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/01/07/is-the-jay-leno-show-really-canceled/37958
“Jay Leno is one of the most compelling entertainers in the world today. As we have said all along, Jay’s show has performed exactly as we anticipated on the network. It has, however, presented some issues for our affiliates. Both Jay and the show are committed to working closely with them to find ways to improve the performance.”

Additionally, quotes from Angela Bromstad, primetime entertainment president, indicate that they are moving towards scheduling a fall season that includes Leno's show:
http://tvbythenumbers.com/2009/12/31/will-leno-rage-and-the-jay-leno-show-continue-into-the-2010-11-season-probably/37396
Leno’s one-hour show takes up five hours of the weeknight schedule, allowing Bromstad to focus on the remaining 10 hours from 8 p.m. to 10 p.m., she said.

“We have so many holes that we have to essentially rebuild the schedule,” Bromstad said. “Not having the additional five hours has certainly relieved some of the pressure.”

[marksman]

In interview with who?

probably an interview with me because I suggested that might might a possibility earlier in the thread. :)


Not sure that I would be instilled with confidence with a programmer who is relieved they don't have to worry about programming 5 more hours because they are locked down tight with the awesomeness of Leno.

I also don't get the affiliate comments. There is nothing they can really do to fix that problem except to get rido of Leno. Everyone knew it would be a problem for the affiliates when they did it, except for NBC management, apparently... so it is not a surprise. I don't think have Jay do local news promos is going to win the affiliates over.

I am sure if NBC has a magic trick to deliver an audience with a crappy lead in and they have been hiding it all these years, some people will be pissed.

[aindik]

probably an interview with me because I suggested that might might a possibility earlier in the thread. :)


Not sure that I would be instilled with confidence with a programmer who is relieved they don't have to worry about programming 5 more hours because they are locked down tight with the awesomeness of Leno.

I also don't get the affiliate comments. There is nothing they can really do to fix that problem except to get rido of Leno. Everyone knew it would be a problem for the affiliates when they did it, except for NBC management, apparently... so it is not a surprise. I don't think have Jay do local news promos is going to win the affiliates over.

I am sure if NBC has a magic trick to deliver an audience with a crappy lead in and they have been hiding it all these years, some people will be pissed.

One way to help the affiliates is to say that, from now on, prime time ends at 10:00 and late nite starts at 10:35 with Leno, followed by Conan at 11:35.

[morac]

My local paper had a best and worst of 2009 feature last week. They rated the Jay Leno Show as the worst TV show of 2009.

[Savafan1]

TMZ has a different version, that the 10pm show is going away because he is moving back to 11:30: http://www.tmz.com/2010/01/07/jay-leno-nbc-conan-obrien-tonight-show/

[whitson77]

TMZ has a different version, that the 10pm show is going away because he is moving back to 11:30: http://www.tmz.com/2010/01/07/jay-leno-nbc-conan-obrien-tonight-show/

I believe TMZ has it correct. Which is too bad IMO. I don't really watch late night TV much, but when I do I find Conan a million times better than Leno.

[scooterboy]

If they kick Conan to the curb, I hope his contract requires them to pay him through the nose.

[Alfer]

I had to laugh at this NBC kiss ass comment:

"Jay Leno is one of the most compelling entertainers in the world today," NBC representative Rebecca Marks said

Really...?

[terpfan1980]

If they kick Conan to the curb, I hope his contract requires them to pay him through the nose.

While I would hope he'd get to walk with a ton of NBCU/Comcast's money, I'd also hope that perhaps he'd make a run right on over to FOX where maybe they'd give him a show in the 11pm time slot where he'd kick Leno and Letterman's tails so badly we'd be talking about for years to come :up:

(I like Letterman, but he's getting to the cranky old guy stage and really is no where near as good as he used to be. As to Leno, I wish he'd just leave the airwaves already. He's well past any entertaining point for me.)

[LoadStar]

What if they swapped The Tonight Show and The Jay Leno Show?

Conan's Tonight Show is the more "dynamic" of the two shows and probably in some ways a better fit for a prime-time entertainment show. Leno's show, even in it's current form, is the show better fit for turning on before tuning out, so would probably work in late night even still.

I think Conan would have to tweak his show even more than he did when it moved from "Late Night" - but I think Conan is the more flexible of the hosts and probably has a more flexible audience. Conan could definitely be promoted as a show that would keep people watching to the end to see what he is going to do next... which would hopefully keep people tuned in to the late local news. In contrast, Leno's show, to be blunt, generally attracts an older audience looking for something familiar, something safe, and that's something Jay doles out in spades.

The only question is whether that older audience would want to continue staying up after the late local news to watch Jay's show.

[MickeS]

I watched both the Leno and Conan shows up until end of November. Haven't watched either one since then, for some reason (and no other talk show either). Maybe I'm the one killing NBC? :eek: :D

[TheMerk]

I watched Leno for the first time on Tuesday night (after The Biggest Loser.) When I say I watched for the first time, I mean it: I never, that I can recall, watched a single episode of his Tonight Show.

Holy crap, it was awful, self serving and, I thought, some of the jokes were borderline racist.

Give me Dave, Conan and Craig. Although, I must confess, I haven't watched Conan's Tonight Show since the 1st week...

[JYoung]

While I would hope he'd get to walk with a ton of NBCU/Comcast's money, I'd also hope that perhaps he'd make a run right on over to FOX where maybe they'd give him a show in the 11pm time slot where he'd kick Leno and Letterman's tails so badly we'd be talking about for years to come :up:

(I like Letterman, but he's getting to the cranky old guy stage and really is no where near as good as he used to be. As to Leno, I wish he'd just leave the airwaves already. He's well past any entertaining point for me.)

What if they swapped The Tonight Show and The Jay Leno Show?

Conan's Tonight Show is the more "dynamic" of the two shows and probably in some ways a better fit for a prime-time entertainment show. Leno's show, even in it's current form, is the show better fit for turning on before tuning out, so would probably work in late night even still.

I think Conan would have to tweak his show even more than he did when it moved from "Late Night" - but I think Conan is the more flexible of the hosts and probably has a more flexible audience. Conan could definitely be promoted as a show that would keep people watching to the end to see what he is going to do next... which would hopefully keep people tuned in to the late local news. In contrast, Leno's show, to be blunt, generally attracts an older audience looking for something familiar, something safe, and that's something Jay doles out in spades.

The only question is whether that older audience would want to continue staying up after the late local news to watch Jay's show.


Neither of these will happen as long as Conan's ratings are lower than Leno's tenure on the Tonight Show.
I think O'Brien is now getting the same ratings he got for his 12:30 show.

[sonnik]

If there's any validity to TMZ's remarks about Conan being out (which I'm still doubting at this point) ...

I'm Sure Fox would love to be able to give its affiliates someone like him (Conan) at 11pm (after most Fox affiliates have completed an hour-long local block, primarily news). People could switch over from TDS, Colbert, and go right to Conan. Conan would corner the late night audience that would care less about local news. (Sorry, scratch my remarks about TDS/Colbert ... I based that on my local time zone).

I'm not sure what the demos are for Conan, but Conan's demos have to be more appealing than Leno.

[brianric]

While I would hope he'd get to walk with a ton of NBCU/Comcast's money, I'd also hope that perhaps he'd make a run right on over to FOX where maybe they'd give him a show in the 11pm time slot where he'd kick Leno and Letterman's tails so badly we'd be talking about for years to come :up:

O'Brien's ratings are half of what Leno had, and Letterman is on par with O'Brien with the younger viewing audience that NBC said was its primary target for late night TV, according to the Washington Post.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/tvblog/2010/01/leno-headed-back-to-late-night.html?hpid=artslot

[Dan203]

I watched one episode of the new Leno show in a hotel while I was on vacation. I didn't care for it so I never set up a SP when I got home. Conan's Tonight Show is OK. It's pretty much the exact same show he use to do, just with a few more jokes up front and better guests. (probably more to do with the show shooting in LA then anything else)

Back when Jay was on The Tonight Show I watched the monologue portion almost every night. The rest of the show I could do without, but Jay is so much better then Conan at coming up with jokes about current news and events. I think Conan is better at interacting with the guests, but like I said that part of the show I could take or leave anyway.

Whatever they do here I don't really care. I don't watch Jay's new show, and while I do record Conan I usually only watch the Friday night episode because there is no Daily Show or Colbert Report on. They could both go away forever and I probably wouldn't really notice.

Dan

[Kamakzie]

Kind of a low blow to Conan if they dump him. I to would laugh if Fox picked up Conan.

[scottjf8]

I had to laugh at this NBC kiss ass comment:



Really...?

Me, along with Turtleboy, smak, ellinj, and smeek saw him do Stand Up in Vegas last year. It was so bad.

[Dan203]

I saw him do stand up like 4-5 years ago and it was a lot of fun. It was a lot like his monologue where he made a lot of jokes about current news/events. To each their own I guess.

Dan

[FilmCritic3000]

http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/07/nbc-may-be-considering-reinstating-leno-on-tonight-show/

If NBC does this, it's the stupidest, crappiest, most idiotic idea since Jay Leno took over from Carson.

If it does indeed happen, I sincerely hope Conan has the last laugh. And here I thought once Ben Silverman was gone, NBC was finally going to turn the corner. Silly me - the stupidity known as Jeff Zucker is still the top suit until the ink dries on Comcast's NBC Universal takeover.

[FilmCritic3000]

UPDATE:

http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/07/update-nbc-plans-leno-at-1130-conan-at-12/

So they're planning to have Leno do a show from 11:35-12:05, The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien from 12:05-1:05, and Late Night with Jimmy Fallon from 1:05-2:05.

NBC - Where Cluelessness Reigns Supreme!

[IJustLikeTivo]

My local paper had a best and worst of 2009 feature last week. They rated the Jay Leno Show as the worst TV show of 2009.

Not even close to being true but it's a better story that way. There is a lot of true garbage out there that gets no viewers.

[Bierboy]

Lotsa stories swirling, inlcuding Leno possibly going back to 11:30 p.m. (EST)...maybe being cut down to a half hour with Conan to follow....blah blah....

Being reported by TV-By-The-Numbers (http://tvbythenumbers.com/2010/01/07/tmz-jay-leno-moving-back-to-1130pm/37993) according to TMZ. (http://www.tmz.com)

[Turtleboy]

Come on. It was the very first thread on the forum which you started a new thread.

[Bierboy]

Come on. It was the very first thread on the forum which you started a new thread.

Come on nothing...it deserved its own thread. The other thread is old and says nothing (in the title) about the move back to late night.

[FilmCritic3000]

Update #2:

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/nbc-indicates-changes-coming-to-jay-leno-show-due-to-affiliate-issues/

[Turtleboy]

NBC created this problem by trying to have it both ways. They should have stuck with Jay to begin with, but when they didn't, that was that. They should have let him go. It will remain a disaster until one of them gets the boot. And getting rid of Conan and bringing back Jay makes both NBC and Jay look terrible.

[Neenahboy]

I didn't think it was possible, but NBC's in a worse late night position now than six months ago.

They can't show Conan the door (and thus, they can't reinstate Leno in The Tonight Show) because it would trigger a $50M financial penalty to him. Or rather, they could, but they probably don't want to.

They've proven that they won't bid Leno adieu because he'd jump to ABC or Fox to complement Kimmel or Wanda Sykes.

And they'll have a hell of a time making themselves credible in the scripted drama space again when they go that route (they've supposedly told agents to bring them as much drama development as possible for fall) even with the Abrams and Bruckheimer projects in production.

If they really want to save late night, they'll release Conan and move Jay back to 11:30 as host of Tonight. If they want to be cost effective, they'll scale Jay back to once or twice a week and keep Conan on Tonight. And if they want to be clueless idiots, they'll move Leno to late night in a half-hour format as discussed above and slide Conan back 30 minutes for an hour show.

I must say, though, I'm quite enjoying the beginning of the end for NBC.

[FilmCritic3000]

I didn't think it was possible, but NBC's in a worse late night position now than six months ago.

They can't show Conan the door (and thus, they can't reinstate Leno in The Tonight Show) because it would trigger a $50M financial penalty to him. Or rather, they could, but they probably don't want to.

They've proven that they won't bid Leno adieu because he'd jump to ABC or Fox to complement Kimmel or Wanda Sykes.

And they'll have a hell of a time making themselves credible in the scripted drama space again when they go that route (they've supposedly told agents to bring them as much drama development as possible for fall) even with the Abrams and Bruckheimer projects in production.

If they really want to save late night, they'll release Conan and move Jay back to 11:30 as host of Tonight. If they want to be cost effective, they'll scale Jay back to once or twice a week and keep Conan on Tonight. And if they want to be clueless idiots, they'll move Leno to late night in a half-hour format as discussed above and slide Conan back 30 minutes for an hour show.

I must say, though, I'm quite enjoying the beginning of the end for NBC.

And all of this is moot, I believe, for when Comcast officially takes over NBC Universal, I suspect they'll devise a plan of their own. Then again, I'm sure Brian Roberts and his team are more than likely involved in the decision-making process already.

[Turtleboy]

I wouldn't be surprised if the endgame involves some sort of online distribution. Not of Leno, because his fans are mostly alter kakers, but for Conan.

[Neenahboy]

Leno's anti-NBC monologue on tonight's show, as reported by Deadline:

Happy birthday to Katie Couric, it's her birthday today. She left NBC for another network. I have to give her call to see how that is working out. As you may have heard, there is a rumor floating around that we were cancelled. I heard it coming in this morning on the radio. So far no one has said anything to me. But, Kev, if we did get cancelled, it will give us time to do some traveling. I understand that Fox is beautiful this time of year.

I don’t think there is any truth to the rumors. See, it’s always been my experience that NBC only cancels you when you're in first place. So we are fine. We are OK...

[Later, Leno inserted this comment after a joke.] You know what happened? NBC found four guns in my locker. I was suspended. [Kevin says, “I’m glad they didn’t find them in my locker.”] We will keep following this story....

[Later, Leno returns to NBC yet again.] The Justice Department announced they will conduct an anti-trust review of Comcast's proposed deal to merge with NBC. An anti-trust review. Which is the relationship i have with NBC. Anti-trust. Hey Kev, what does NBC stand for? Never believe your contract."

[Einselen]

Come on nothing...it deserved its own thread. The other thread is old and says nothing (in the title) about the move back to late night.

Agreed. I wouldn't know about this news as I ignored the other thread as I thought it was all talk about Leno and his "new" show.

[netringer]

what does NBC stand for? Never believe your contract."

Now Leno is recycling jokes he told at the press conference when NBC announced he won The Tonight Show over Letterman.

It's even in the "Late Shift" movie.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0116835/

[FilmCritic3000]

Now Leno is recycling jokes he told at the press conference when NBC announced he won The Tonight Show over Letterman.

It's even in the "Late Shift" movie.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0116835/

Yep. But then again, that's Leno in a nutshell.

[Turtleboy]

As Jay Eff Ate said, we saw Leno in Vegas last year. He was doing Bill Clinton is horny jokes. In 2008.

[Kablemodem]

I'm sure Bill Clinton was still horny in 2008.

[ElJay]

So if Leno does go back to 11:35, what goes in at 10pm? Reruns of USA Network shows?

I feel bad for Conan. He has been screwed since the transition and it seems he will continue to be until Leno gets a clue and goes away.

[stalemate]

Agreed. I wouldn't know about this news as I ignored the other thread as I thought it was all talk about Leno and his "new" show.Same here.

[LoadStar]

So if Leno does go back to 11:35, what goes in at 10pm? Reruns of USA Network shows?

The best of what they have now (a.k.a. "best of the worst") combined with all the new pilots that they are ordering.

[YCantAngieRead]

So if Leno does go back to 11:35, what goes in at 10pm? Reruns of USA Network shows?

I feel bad for Conan. He has been screwed since the transition and it seems he will continue to be until Leno gets a clue and goes away.

USA Network shows do pretty good. That might be a better move. :)

[pcguru83]

Ugh, this sucks. I love Conan at 11:30pm. Here's hoping they boot Leno, not Conan. I'm not holding my breath though...

[DevdogAZ]

Ugh, this sucks. I love Conan at 11:30pm. Here's hoping they boot Leno, not Conan. I'm not holding my breath though...
Problem is, Conan's ratings are horrible when compared with Leno's before the switch. Conan isn't even beating Nightline in total viewers.

NBC is in a no-win situation here. They either pay a huge buyout to Conan, pay a huge buyout to Leno, or keep both shows on the air and continue to suffer in the ratings. And they don't have the content to fill the 10 pm slot right now, so even if they were to make a move after the Olympics, they'd have to fill that slot with reality, Dateline, and perhaps one or two scripted shows. It just doesn't make sense for NBC to make any drastic moves this season.

[pcguru83]

Problem is, Conan's ratings are horrible when compared with Leno's before the switch. Conan isn't even beating Nightline in total viewers.

One could argue that Conan's ratings are so poor because of the number of lost viewers from Leno's show in the "middle". I mean, who stays up to watch two late night shows?

My guess is that Conan's ratings would be much improved if there was programming at 10pm that lead into Conan. But unfortunately, I bet we'll never get to see if this is the case.

Based on what we think we know, NBC is seriously screwing over Conan.

[stalemate]

Conan is so much better.

[DevdogAZ]

So if Leno does go back to 11:35, what goes in at 10pm? Reruns of USA Network shows?

I feel bad for Conan. He has been screwed since the transition and it seems he will continue to be until Leno gets a clue and goes away.
I would feel bad for Conan if his show were any good. But I watched it religiously for the first several months just to see if I could get used to it, and I just never could. Conan's got that strange habit of having to pantomime his jokes after he finishes telling them. It's like a nervous tick or something. Some might find it funny or endearing, but I'll bet the average viewer doesn't like it and I'd be willing to bet that's one of the big reasons his show has lost the ratings lead he had when he took over from Leno.

[DevdogAZ]

One could argue that Conan's ratings are so poor because of the number of lost viewers from Leno's show in the "middle". I mean, who stays up to watch two late night shows?

My guess is that Conan's ratings would be much improved if there was programming at 10pm that lead into Conan. But unfortunately, I bet we'll never get to see if this is the case.

Based on what we think we know, NBC is seriously screwing over Conan.
I don't really think that's the case. If Conan's show were good, people would watch. But it's just not. The shows are 90 minutes apart and attract different demographics and target different viewers. There's simply no evidence to show that viewers are avoiding Conan because they've already had their fix of late-night comedy from Leno. It's more likely that the people who enjoyed Leno on The Tonight Show just haven't warmed up to Conan because his style of comedy is too different.
Conan is so much better.
As a Leno fan, I'll admit that his new show sucks and he's not been very good since he moved to 10pm. But Conan is definitely NOT better. He's quirkier. He's good at acting out his jokes after the punchline. But he's not better.

[jimborst]

I just seen a tweet from Letterman (or a writer) that said "I hope everything works out for #Conan" so I had to come here to see what the news was, but maybe no one really knows yet.

[stalemate]

As a Leno fan, I'll admit that his new show sucks and he's not been very good since he moved to 10pm. But Conan is definitely NOT better. He's quirkier. He's good at acting out his jokes after the punchline. But he's not better.I'm a Leno fan too but I still think Conan is better.

[MrGreg]

Conan's got that strange habit of having to pantomime his jokes after he finishes telling them. It's like a nervous tick or something. Some might find it funny or endearing, but I'll bet the average viewer doesn't like it and I'd be willing to bet that's one of the big reasons his show has lost the ratings lead he had when he took over from Leno.

Yeah, I guess people like Jay's habit of repeating each punchline 3 times a lot more. </sarcasm>

[Dan203]

I actually think the 1/2 hour Leno with Conan following is a good idea. It may not be "fair" to either host, but I think it will result in the best ratings for both shows. Like I said before I really only ever watched Jay's monologue anyway, so a 1/2 hour is fine there. Plus I think Conan following Colbert, instead of competing with him, will actually help his ratings. The Daily Show, Colbert and Conan all appeal to the same basic demographic. They compliment each other well. They even did a few crossover bits with all 3 hosts back when Conan was in NYC.

Dan

[FilmCritic3000]

NBC to Conan O'Brien: The Choice Is Yours

http://www.tmz.com/2010/01/08/conan-obrien-jay-leno-nbc-tonight-show/

[FilmCritic3000]

NBC to Conan O'Brien: The Choice Is Yours

http://www.tmz.com/2010/01/08/conan-obrien-jay-leno-nbc-tonight-show/

[Rob Helmerichs]

One hopes that if this happens, as it sounds like it will, at least one or two of the "restored" hours will be "real" TV and not reality TV...

[disco]

If I was Conan, I'd leave for ABC or FOX. Screw this. Leno is the Favre of television: he said he was retiring from "The Tonight Show", so they gave the show to Conan. Then he said he didn't want to retire, so NBC gave him the 10p show. He sucked in ratings, so now they want to take the 11:35p slot from Conan and give it back to Leno.

Byeee....Conan should move to ABC or FOX, go head to head against Leno & Letterman. He may not beat Leno in ratings, but he can at least take SOME of his viewers away so Leno's second to Letterman.

[disco]

If I was Conan, I'd leave for ABC or FOX. Screw this. Leno is the Favre of television: he said he was retiring from "The Tonight Show", so they gave the show to Conan. Then he said he didn't want to retire, so NBC gave him the 10p show. He sucked in ratings, so now they want to take the 11:35p slot from Conan and give it back to Leno.

Byeee....Conan should move to ABC or FOX, go head to head against Leno & Letterman. He may not beat Leno in ratings, but he can at least take SOME of his viewers away so Leno's second to Letterman.

[Turtleboy]

I think anyone who has read The Late Shift isn't surprised by this at all. Leno is one ambitious throat-cutting, backstabbing, S.O.B. He convinced NBC to screw over Letterman, and now Conan.

This time, there isn't even the pretense of "Oh, it wasn't me. I'm the nice guy that everyone loves. It was Helen Kushnick."

[ElJay]

I'm hoping Conan jumps ship and goes somewhere he's wanted. After this failed experiment I don't know why NBC is still clinging on to Leno as they are. They kept him on because they didn't want the competition, but now he's proving to be a joke in regards to ratings. I don't think he's going to improve that much on another network.

Conan's got that strange habit of having to pantomime his jokes after he finishes telling them.

He did that fairly regularly on his 12:37 show, but not to the extent I saw him doing it on "The Tonight Show." I wonder if Andy wasn't there if he'd do it less often. I think half of it is him acting silly with Andy. It's better when Conan saves it up for a Larry King or Schwarzenegger joke instead of doing it after nearly everything in the monologue.

[5thcrewman]

I just had a brainstorm as to what Leno should do.

-Steal yet another idea from Stern, move to 'satellite' network.

MSNBC could use a 'Red Eye' competitor and Jay could still do his 'Clinton is horny/McCain is old' crap.

[5thcrewman]

Put Leno on MSNBC to compete with 'Red Eye' and he can still do his Clinton is horny jokes,

[FilmCritic3000]

I think anyone who has read The Late Shift isn't surprised by this at all. Leno is one ambitious throat-cutting, backstabbing, S.O.B. He convinced NBC to screw over Letterman, and now Conan.

This time, there isn't even the pretense of "Oh, it wasn't me. I'm the nice guy that everyone loves. It was Helen Kushnick."

You're exactly right, Turtleboy.

And as a side note, The Late Shift is a really fantastic book, chock full of in-depth details (did you know CBS attempted to get Leno to do a late night show in 1990 by gifting him with a priceless motorcycle?) of the late night landscape back in the day, starting with how The Tonight Show was created, how the 12:30 slot started on NBC, into Letterman's morning show, how Conan got his start with King of the Hill/The Office (U.S.)/Parks & Recreation creator Greg Daniels on HBO's Not Necessarily The News (which I loved) and FOX's The Wilton-North Report, the people that attempted to take down Carson with their own late night talk shows (Alan Thicke, Joan Rivers, Pat Sajak, Arsenio Hall to name a few), and so much more.

I lost my copy a little while ago but The Late Shift is a book that's like comfort food to me, in that it's immensely and compulsively re-readable.

[DancnDude]

If I was Conan, I'd leave for ABC or FOX. Screw this. Leno is the Favre of television: he said he was retiring from "The Tonight Show", so they gave the show to Conan. Then he said he didn't want to retire, so NBC gave him the 10p show. He sucked in ratings, so now they want to take the 11:35p slot from Conan and give it back to Leno.


This just isn't right. Leno did NOT want to retire. NBC renewed Conan's contract and told him he'd get the Tonight Show spot so he wouldn't leave the network. So Leno was forced out. But then NBC decided they wanted to keep Leno as well so they made the deal to put him on at 10. Almost all of this was NBC's fault to begin with.

[DevdogAZ]

This just isn't right. Leno did NOT want to retire. NBC renewed Conan's contract and told him he'd get the Tonight Show spot so he wouldn't leave the network. So Leno was forced out. But then NBC decided they wanted to keep Leno as well so they made the deal to put him on at 10. Almost all of this was NBC's fault to begin with.
Agreed. NBC tried to have their cake and eat it too, and it bit them in the ass. You can't fault Leno for not wanting to be kicked to the curb when his show is #1 and he's in his prime.
I think anyone who has read The Late Shift isn't surprised by this at all. Leno is one ambitious throat-cutting, backstabbing, S.O.B. He convinced NBC to screw over Letterman, and now Conan.

This time, there isn't even the pretense of "Oh, it wasn't me. I'm the nice guy that everyone loves. It was Helen Kushnick."
That may have been the case in 1993. But I don't think you can say that this time Leno convinced NBC to screw over Conan. NBC simply made a mistake. They thought Leno would be ready to retire and when the time actually got here, he wasn't. Leno would have had the option to go to ABC or FOX, and NBC wanted nothing to do with that, so they gave him a primetime show. I'm not sure how you can turn "Leno was a ratings powerhouse and wasn't ready to retire" into "Leno convinced NBC to screw over Conan."

[Steveknj]

I wouldn't be surprised if the endgame involves some sort of online distribution. Not of Leno, because his fans are mostly alter kakers, but for Conan.

alter kakers :up::D

[Steveknj]

USA Network shows do pretty good. That might be a better move. :)

Actually, I think Burn Notice or In Plain Sight would work well in that timeslot. They are a bit different than the normal 10PM fare, and they might draw in some new viewers to USA once everything is sorted out at NBC.

[bicker]

I mentioned this in another forum this morning: Someone was reacting to these rumors as if they were true, and then projecting beyond that that the result would be lots more scripted programming choice at 10PM. I countered with my own baseless speculation:
Monday 10PM - Dateline
Tuesday 10PM - L&O: SVU (with a new game show or reality show taking the Wednesday 9PM slot)
Wednesday 10PM - Burn Notice from last year (more firmly establishing a precedent for the reverse commute, from cable to over-the-air broadcast)
Thursday 10PM - Dateline
Friday 10PM - rerun of this week's Mercy
Dateline four nights a week... it could happen. Heck, the current Friday Dateline could be a rerun of Thursday's broadcast.

[Steveknj]

I mentioned this in another forum this morning: Someone was reacting to these rumors as if they were true, and then projecting beyond that that the result would be lots more scripted programming choice at 10PM. I countered with my own baseless speculation:
Monday 10PM - Dateline
Tuesday 10PM - L&O: SVU (with a new game show or reality show taking the Wednesday 9PM slot)
Wednesday 10PM - Burn Notice from last year (more firmly establishing a precedent for the reverse commute, from cable to over-the-air broadcast)
Thursday 10PM - Dateline
Friday 10PM - rerun of this week's Mercy
Dateline four nights a week... it could happen. Heck, the current Friday Dateline could be a rerun of Thursday's broadcast.

With the caveat that I don't know what Dateline's ratings have been, but I'm assuming not very good, if the intent here is to fix the issues with the affiliates, how is replacing Leno with Dateline going to help? I think a lot depends on how much, if any, input Comcast has. They may be more willing to cross platform cable content on OTA broadcasts

[disco]

This just isn't right. Leno did NOT want to retire. NBC renewed Conan's contract and told him he'd get the Tonight Show spot so he wouldn't leave the network. So Leno was forced out. But then NBC decided they wanted to keep Leno as well so they made the deal to put him on at 10. Almost all of this was NBC's fault to begin with.Stories that I've read say Leno's last contract stipulated that the Tonight Show would move to Conan's hands in 2009. If he didn't like the contract, he didn't have to sign. I don't see how he was "forced out". He didn't HAVE to sign the contract as it was written.

[Turtleboy]

Agreed. NBC tried to have their cake and eat it too, and it bit them in the ass. You can't fault Leno for not wanting to be kicked to the curb when his show is #1 and he's in his prime.

That may have been the case in 1993. But I don't think you can say that this time Leno convinced NBC to screw over Conan. NBC simply made a mistake. They thought Leno would be ready to retire and when the time actually got here, he wasn't. Leno would have had the option to go to ABC or FOX, and NBC wanted nothing to do with that, so they gave him a primetime show. I'm not sure how you can turn "Leno was a ratings powerhouse and wasn't ready to retire" into "Leno convinced NBC to screw over Conan."

I sort of agree. The original mistake was giving Conan the show when they did. But NBC really compounded it by the ridiculous schedule this year. They should have just sucked it up and let Jay go play for the Jets or the Vikings.

[sean67854]

Since Comcast now owns NBC, essentially making it a "cable" channel, what are the chances that time slot will just be filled with paid programming?

[Rob Helmerichs]

Since Comcast now owns NBC, essentially making it a "cable" channel, what are the chances that time slot will just be filled with paid programming?
Zero. That would effectively kill the affiliates' news shows, and they'd have affiliates bailing left and right. Why be an NBC station if NBC is going to kill your big money-maker?

NBC needs ratings at 9:00 (Central). Their big Leno gamble flopped, so whatever they do to replace it has to provide the kind of ratings that will let their affiliates' news shows recover.

[DancnDude]

Stories that I've read say Leno's last contract stipulated that the Tonight Show would move to Conan's hands in 2009. If he didn't like the contract, he didn't have to sign. I don't see how he was "forced out". He didn't HAVE to sign the contract as it was written.

He was forced out because they already promised Conan the Tonight Show gig before Leno's contract was up. Sure, Leno didn't have to sign the new contract, but he was given the door to TTS without any discussion with the network....they decided for him that he was leaving the show. It's not like he told them he wanted to retire. Not anything like Favre.

[tootal2]

I dont see how his ratings could be down. I record his show every night. I hope he does not quit.

[netringer]

I dont see how his ratings could be down. I record his show every night. I hope he does not quit.

Recording alone doesn't count. Ya gotta watch it, too. :rolleyes:

[zalusky]

BTW Trauma which was essentially cancelled last fall is now filming again in San Francisco.

[DevdogAZ]

Since Comcast now owns NBC, essentially making it a "cable" channel, what are the chances that time slot will just be filled with paid programming?
The merger won't be final until it's approved by the Justice Department, which might not be until later this year.

And even when it is approved, NBC won't be a "cable" channel. It will still be one of the Big Four broadcast networks and Comcast will have to treat it that way if it wants to maintain that status. Besides, what cable channels put on Paid Programming during prime time? I know lots of them have it on during the day or in the middle of the night, but if they're running infomercials at 10 pm, they might as well not even ben on the air.

[YCantAngieRead]

If I was Conan, I'd leave for ABC or FOX. Screw this. Leno is the Favre of television: he said he was retiring from "The Tonight Show", so they gave the show to Conan. Then he said he didn't want to retire, so NBC gave him the 10p show. He sucked in ratings, so now they want to take the 11:35p slot from Conan and give it back to Leno.

Byeee....Conan should move to ABC or FOX, go head to head against Leno & Letterman. He may not beat Leno in ratings, but he can at least take SOME of his viewers away so Leno's second to Letterman.

Yeah, this. I hope wherever he goes he's wildly successful. He's really getting the shaft in this.

[aindik]

I sort of agree. The original mistake was giving Conan the show when they did. But NBC really compounded it by the ridiculous schedule this year. They should have just sucked it up and let Jay go play for the Jets or the Vikings.

If they could let him go play for the Jets, they would. But they don't want him playing for the Vikings. (The Packers wouldn't let Farve play for the Vikings either. That's where he wanted to go last year, but he had to wait until his contract was up to go there).

I don't think there's a Jets in this analogy.

[bicker]

With the caveat that I don't know what Dateline's ratings have been, but I'm assuming not very good, if the intent here is to fix the issues with the affiliates, how is replacing Leno with Dateline going to help?It probably won't, but truly "fixing" the affiliates issues is likely more expensive than it is worth. The network is perhaps being driven to do something, but there may not be anything the network can (from a feasibility and effectiveness standpoint) and should (from a financial standpoint) do.

[aindik]

I think a lot depends on how much, if any, input Comcast has.

If this is anything like Sirius and XM, Comcast will have zero input until the merger closes.

Any role for Comcast in the operations of NBCU before the merger closes will a) anger regulators by effectively implementing the merger before they approve it, and b) possibly anger GE shareholders, who will not like having to live with decisions Comcast made, for Comcast's benefit, if the government rejects the merger.

[Legion]

Sux for Conan. He moved his whole staff to CA for this show.

Conan should of called Dave for some advice on NBC and taking them at their word.

[marksman]

He was forced out because they already promised Conan the Tonight Show gig before Leno's contract was up. Sure, Leno didn't have to sign the new contract, but he was given the door to TTS without any discussion with the network....they decided for him that he was leaving the show. It's not like he told them he wanted to retire. Not anything like Favre.

Well, Jay original said okay, as he guessed he would be okay with retiring, but then when the time came, he did not want to actually retire. Which is exactly like Favre. Favre said he wanted to retire but he didn't want to when the time came and the Packers kicked him out anyways.

[marksman]

The old thread is Leno is Killing NBC.

Not How awesome is leno's new show.

Funny thing is this move will continue to kill NBC.

They are so stupid. Would they stop demanding and running off people who want to make them money?

The implicitly destroyed their network because they did not want to repeat with Conan what happened with Letterman. Yet in their own uniquely idiotic way they have managed to do just that.

If I were comcast taking over NBC, when they get control , I would suggest firing anyone who still works at NBC who has been there at any time during the last 5 or so years.

[aindik]

We read for months, if not years, that Conan had an "11:35 or $45 million" clause in his contract. Was that not true? Were they myopic enough that the clause says "The Tonight Show," and not "11:35"?

[ElJay]

Well, Jay original said okay, as he guessed he would be okay with retiring, but then when the time came, he did not want to actually retire. Which is exactly like Favre. Favre said he wanted to retire but he didn't want to when the time came and the Packers kicked him out anyways.

Yeah, I can't really see this situation as Leno being "forced out." They gave him, what, five years notice, and then they gave him a new show in primetime! Now Leno's apparently on the way to forcing Conan out, or at the very least screwing him over (my show first!!) a second time. How about putting Leno on cable or after Carson? That seems like a good spot for him.

[aindik]

Yeah, I can't really see this situation as Leno being "forced out." They gave him, what, five years notice, and then they gave him a new show in primetime! Now Leno's apparently on the way to forcing Conan out, or at the very least screwing him over (my show first!!) a second time. How about putting Leno on cable or after Carson? That seems like a good spot for him.

His audience, to whom the gentleman from Florida colorfully referred as alter kakers, will not find him either on cable or at 2 a.m.

[sonnik]

NBC's problem is that they're really good at letting their talent grow, they believe in on-air personalities.

They do this with their news divisions (think Chuck Todd - Senior White House Reporter - you may have not even known who he was a few years ago). Katie Couric from Today become a candidate for an anchor position (albeit at another network).

They do it with late night. They gave the keys to 12:30 to Lorne Michaels a few years ago. Conan (writer on SNL) was a Lorne pick, Fallon (from SNL) was a Lorne pick. Conan had some loyal followers at 12:30.

Now, in terms of ratings - Carson/Letterman had no real (talk/comedy) competition for many years. Arsenio Hall was probably the most competition that Carson ever saw. Letterman saw essentially no competition at 12:30. Now, ABC has stood by Kimmel and he has a following. CBS has a valid late night establishment now. Prior to the mid 90's, cable didn't really have any original content. Now we have Comedy Central with decent size audiences also with a stake (in some markets).

Fast forward to 2008. Dave and Jay are getting to that age where they might start considering retiring. If Dave retires first, CBS has a replacement at 11:30 who is then "more established" whenever NBC puts Conan in at 11:30 - if Jay retires second. However, if Jay "retires" first - they can reestablish a Tonight Show lead, as we don't really know who CBS would put in at 11:30 when Dave retired. This of course would let CBS have a lead for a few years, but Conan in this role may let NBC have the 18-49 demo.

In 2008 - Conan's contract would surely be up for renewal soon. If you were NBC, would you risk letting Conan shop around? If he went to Fox in 2008, for example, Conan would be the senior kid on the block whenever Jay and Dave did retire.

At the same time, you can't let Jay shop around for a new job either. He's still a great asset with 25-54. NBC, Jay, and O'Brien were all probably aware of this, and they all agreed to it.

Now, in 2010 - the 10pm debacle. Jay took the challenge. It didn't work. While this move wasn't Jay's idea, he agreed to it - he agreed to the money. I personally think he's acting a little disrespectable here. His effort failed, and he started campaigning for 11:30 back. (See the Broadcasting and Cable article from a few months ago. He made comments about being willing to take 11:30 back if it was offered to him, which was out of line, in my opinion).

NBC is still in the same position, they can't let the talent go anywhere else. That's why we are hearing the 11:35/12:05 situation being proposed.

Now, if I were NBC - I'd get out of this habit of thinking Jay is gold. Honestly, I don't think he'll have the longevity that Carson did. Not in this world of television. I was a teenager and watched Carson, he was the most entertaining thing around in that timeslot.

Do you think teenagers, 20-somethings, and 30-somethings (probably those who go to see movies, buy DVDs, looking to buy a new car - and thus sought by advertisers) are going to stick around for the next few years and watch Jay grow old at 11:35, when they have so many new options coming to them every year? I'm in my 30's now. I think Leno is a good comedian, but I'm tired of him as a "host" of a show in this format.

Conan may not be everyone's comedy cup of tea, but I think he's your best candidate for the future of 11:30. I like Kimmel, Ferguson as well. I don't think Ferguson can have mass-appeal at 11:30, unfortunately. As much as I love TDS/Colbert, I don't see them having mass apeal on a broadcast network either. Hell, even NBC issued a press release recently that Conan prevailed in 18-49 in the 4th quarter. (Letterman had 25-54).

My point is that if you try to name someone you can bank on at 11:30, the list is very small and getting smaller (and Leno's name should be purged off that list as well).

[JYoung]

I'm hoping Conan jumps ship and goes somewhere he's wanted. After this failed experiment I don't know why NBC is still clinging on to Leno as they are. They kept him on because they didn't want the competition, but now he's proving to be a joke in regards to ratings. I don't think he's going to improve that much on another network.



Leno's ratings for the 10 PM slot suck because they're the same numbers he was getting at the 11:35 time slot, which was beating Letterman.

If Leno went to another network in a post news time slot, there's little reason to think he wouldn't get similar ratings as before his move to 10 PM. Which would still be beating Letterman and he'd probably kill O'Brien.

(That said, if ABC picked him up, does Jimmy Kimmel become a liability?)

[terpfan1980]

Now, in 2010 - the 10pm debacle. Jay took the challenge. It didn't work. While this move wasn't Jay's idea, he agreed to it - he agreed to the money. I personally think he's acting a little disrespectable here. His effort failed, and he started campaigning for 11:30 back. (See the Broadcasting and Cable article from a few months ago. He made comments about being willing to take 11:30 back if it was offered to him, which was out of line, in my opinion).
I agree with almost all of what you've written though I would say that Leno's comments about potentially moving back to 11:30 may have been what the network wanted him to say just as much as what he wanted to say.

I've said before, I am not a fan of Leno. I don't find him that funny, and I really don't care for his interview skills. I preferred Letterman and used to watch him instead though through his own actions (scandal) and other things along the way (politics mostly), I've grown to not really care for him now either. Anyway, Leno was somewhat between a rock and hard place in the interview you mention. If he pretends he doesn't care about his audience -- including the ones that apparently want him back at 11:35 rather than at 10pm -- then the audience realizes it and starts ignoring him. He answered in probably the best way he could in saying that if he was asked to move back he'd do it. The wording was probably more along the lines of gib back prz!, but again if he didn't say something along those lines he essentially gives up completely and casts aside any hope of helping himself *and the network*.

[terpfan1980]

Leno's ratings for the 10 PM slot suck because they're the same numbers he was getting at the 11:35 time slot, which was beating Letterman.

If Leno went to another network in a post news time slot, there's little reason to think he wouldn't get similar ratings as before his move to 10 PM. Which would still be beating Letterman and he'd probably kill O'Brien.

(That said, if ABC picked him up, does Jimmy Kimmel become a liability?)

Sadly NBCU is being stupid in looking at Conan's ratings here too though. The ratings for everything on NBC post 10pm (east) are down. They aren't seeing that Leno is there digging the hole in the bottom of the sinking ship. Conan's ratings being down as just as much, if not more, to do with having a poor lead in at 10pm that isn't leaving an audience there at 11pm (for local news) which isn't leaving an audience at 11:35pm.

If NBCU really wanted to find out how Conan is doing they should be leaving his show along and reprogramming some must see TV for the 10pm slot. Think Heroes in it's first season, or Lost, or Desperate Housewives, or other compelling product. Without good product in the earlier time slots they've got nothing to get people to stick around through the rest of the night. One of the few nights they actually do get people to stick around for is when they air 2 hours of Biggest Loser, but that doesn't happen often, no?

NBC ordered something like 18 pilots for next season. They now have to go back and fill the 10pm hour with quality product. Good luck with getting viewers to return once they do. (Though with the Olympics coming they'll be able to promo the bejeezus out of any moves they make, including putting Leno back in late night, etc.)

[Alfer]

Jay just needs to go away and play with his cars...he's WAY past his prime.

[netringer]

We read for months, if not years, that Conan had an "11:35 or $45 million" clause in his contract. Was that not true? Were they myopic enough that the clause says "The Tonight Show," and not "11:35"?

Also in "The Late Shift:" Dave hated agents and negotiated his own contract. He had a "Tonight Show or $1 million" clause in his NBC contract. Then Michael Ovitz told him that $1M was haircut money to NBC.

[bicker]

Good luck with getting viewers to return once they do.The vast majority of viewers generally don't take things so personally, and will evaluate the programs offered on their own merits.

[Einselen]

NBC = Never believe (your) contract

[DevdogAZ]

Yeah, I can't really see this situation as Leno being "forced out." They gave him, what, five years notice, and then they gave him a new show in primetime! Now Leno's apparently on the way to forcing Conan out, or at the very least screwing him over (my show first!!) a second time. How about putting Leno on cable or after Carson? That seems like a good spot for him.
Here's what happened. Jay was told by NBC that in order to get Conan to agree to extend his contract, they had to promise him the Tonight Show by 2009. At that point (approximately 2004-5), Jay accepted the deal and likely figured he could get used to the idea of retiring by 2009. Nobody said he liked that situation, but he was a team player and agreed to it.

Fast forward to fall of 2008. NBC is promoting the final season of Leno on the Tonight Show and making preparations for Conan to take over. Leno realizes that he still loves his job and the audience still loves him. Just because his contract as host of the Tonight Show is ending doesn't mean he has to ride off into the sunset. He realizes he's got other options, and that ABC or FOX would love to have him host a late night show for them. NBC didn't want that competition, so they offered him the 10pm slot, in a bid to keep Leno, save money, do some counterprogramming, etc.

Those of you who hate Leno seem to think that he did something wrong by wanting to continue to work when his Tonight Show contract was over. I simply don't understand that position. He has every right to want to keep working, and NBC was scared to death of him working for someone else. Should Leno have refused the 10pm that NBC offered? Should he have asked NBC to put him on cable so he wouldn't conflict with Conan? The answer is no. Leno did nothing wrong here other than wanting to continue working. The mistakes were made by NBC in wanting to have the best of both worlds. They took a shot, it didn't work, and now they've got a massive mess to clean up. But I simply don't understand how you blame Leno for any of this.

[IndyJones1023]

I don't hate Leno. I just don't see how anyone thinks he's funny.

[terpfan1980]

... NBC ordered something like 18 pilots for next season. They now have to go back and fill the 10pm hour with quality product. Good luck with getting viewers to return once they do. (Though with the Olympics coming they'll be able to promo the bejeezus out of any moves they make, including putting Leno back in late night, etc.)

The vast majority of viewers generally don't take things so personally, and will evaluate the programs offered on their own merits.

It's not about taking things personally, it's about not having a good base of viewers there to show promo's to to even get 'em interested in the new product.

Having a successful programming slate leads itself to continued success. During the shows that people are watching you can air promos -- either as standalone commercials, or as (TBS/TNT style) pop-ups that are shown during other programs. Either way you can, in theory at least, hit a lot of potential viewers with news that you have new programming coming their way, perhaps even programs they may like (especially if your marketing/promo area is good at their game and puts on an ad for a testosterone laden program during another testosterone laden program).

On the other hand, if the current slate of programming has no viewers, or should I say few viewers, then there's not going to be a lot of gain for future programming out of airing promos during that programming which is already on. That leads NBC to having to use other methods to heavily promote their schedule -- print ads, radio ads, etc. Considering how the newspaper and other print businesses have been doing, the chances of hitting potential viewers there aren't that high either, no? And radio has to compete with internet radio, satellite radio, iTunes/MP3s and other media that might never expose viewers to the promos either, so yeah, again, good luck (to NBC) with getting viewers to return.

Certainly if they can get some truly buzz-worthy programming they might have a chance at getting viewers back but their luck on getting truly buzz-worthy programming hasn't been so hot lately (which is part of why they were so eager, or at least so cooperative in handing off 5 hours per week to Leno).

[terpfan1980]

I don't hate Leno. I just don't see how anyone thinks he's funny.

To be correct, this is where I stand with him. I just don't find him entertaining. A few snickers perhaps, but not enough to make him worth tuning in for or even leaving on the TV if I happened to be parked on NBC for some other reason. And lately, honestly, NBC has given me few reasons to park on their local affiliate's channel.

Heroes got to be such a mess as to be unwatchable for me. I don't care for Biggest Loser, and I don't care for their Thursday night block of comedies and such (The Office is ok, I am enjoying the repeats of it that are airing in syndication, but I don't go out of my way at all to see any new episodes of it. Can't stand 30 Rock), and don't really know what else they're even airing -- except Football.

That's why I say they'll have a difficult time winning back viewers. They have to find programming that becomes so must see that viewers will come to them. I wish I could say that Chuck is such a program as I really like it and do go out of my way to see it, but that is about all that NBC has to offer *me* at this point.

Leno moving back to 11:35 does nothing to get me to watch that block and in fact makes me not want to tune in until Conan is on. I suppose having Conan come on at midnight might not be bad as I can then watch the Daily Show and Colbert and flip the channel but many times once I've parked on Comedy Central I'm not bothering to change the channel.

[bicker]

It's not about taking things personally, it's about not having a good base of viewers there to show promo's to to even get 'em interested in the new product.Let's see... where can NBC put their promos? NBC, Telemundo (many of their viewers do understand English), USA Network, Syfy, MSNBC, CNBC, etc. Would it be better if more folks were watching NBC now? Sure. However, the situation isn't nearly as dire as you're making it sound.

Having a successful programming slate leads itself to continued success.As we saw with Must See Thursdays. :rolleyes:

The point is that things change over time, in both directions.

And I'm still not convinced that the best way forward, for any of the OTA broadcast networks, are along the path you seem to be laying out. I said almost a year ago that I think cable will eventually supplant OTA as the best place to place scripted series in first run. What some seem to be resisting is the possibility that the reruns of cable programs, reality shows, and sports, may be the most profitable path forward for OTA, in general.

[bicker]

If I were comcast taking over NBC, when they get control , I would suggest firing anyone who still works at NBC who has been there at any time during the last 5 or so years... because it is always best to make capricious and arbitrary business decisions, instead of actually thinking and trying to figure out what would really be best. :rolleyes:

[SorenTodd]

I have nothing against Mr. Leno, I just don't find him all that funny. More specifically, he's not "funny" to me in the way that Jim Parsons from Big Bang is funny. I realize I'm comparing scripted comedy to unscripted, but still.

NBC's best bet is that plan where Jay gets 1/2 hour, followed by Conan. But let's just hope they have some decent dramas for that 10 pm hour. Otherwise, the affils will be whining again about a lead-in with only 5 million viewers.

[Einselen]

I have nothing against Mr. Leno, I just don't find him all that funny. More specifically, he's not "funny" to me in the way that Jim Parsons from Big Bang is funny. I realize I'm comparing scripted comedy to unscripted, but still.

Leno is scripted. You are comparing scripted sitcom vs. scripted stand up/variety though. Well besides the little side comments during interviews.

[Alfer]

NBC = Never believe (your) contract

Hey...at least give Leno credit for that quip...;)

In another quip, Leno asked: "What does NBC stand for? Never believe your contract."

[Einselen]

Hey...at least give Leno credit for that quip...;)

Admittedly I didn't hear Leno say that. Maybe I read it here in this thread but I haven't read any articles linked in here or read any other articles about the whole Leno situation.

[netringer]

Admittedly I didn't hear Leno say that. Maybe I read it here in this thread but I haven't read any articles linked in here or read any other articles about the whole Leno situation.

http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?p=7707726#post7707726

[Einselen]

http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?p=7707726#post7707726

I left that thread after day 1. I guess Leno is the only one who can come up with that witty acronym.

[5thcrewman]

If they could let him go play for the Jets, they would. But they don't want him playing for the Vikings. (The Packers wouldn't let Farve play for the Vikings either. That's where he wanted to go last year, but he had to wait until his contract was up to go there).

I don't think there's a Jets in this analogy.

MSNBC

[Neenahboy]

We read for months, if not years, that Conan had an "11:35 or $45 million" clause in his contract. Was that not true? Were they myopic enough that the clause says "The Tonight Show," and not "11:35"?

NBC has the contractual right to start Conan as late as 12:05 without penalty.

[aindik]

NBC has the contractual right to start Conan as late as 12:05 without penalty.

Interesting. Is that something we always knew?

[ElJay]

Jay was told by NBC that in order to get Conan to agree to extend his contract, they had to promise him the Tonight Show by 2009. At that point (approximately 2004-5), Jay accepted the deal and likely figured he could get used to the idea of retiring by 2009. Nobody said he liked that situation, but he was a team player and agreed to it.
...
Should Leno have refused the 10pm that NBC offered? Should he have asked NBC to put him on cable so he wouldn't conflict with Conan? The answer is no. Leno did nothing wrong here other than wanting to continue working.

OK, I'll say they're both at fault. NBC was stupid for being afraid of the competition and Leno is at fault for accepting the 10pm show. The latter decision was a huge middle finger to Conan and The Tonight Show as the institution it is. Maybe Leno figured Conan deserved it for being cunning in his own negotiations to get The Tonight Show? Leno had the show for more than a decade and is plenty stale, so I thought it seemed like a smart transition. It's not like Conan didn't put his time in and earn it.

However, the biggest fault does fall on NBC. This decision to offer Leno this show has not only wiped out their 10pm timeslot, but also screwed all programming that comes after it. When they were railroading down with their "it's cheap; we're OK with lower ratings" mantra, I don't think they expected the bleeding to last past 10:59:59pm. Now these rumors show they will possibly have a hole at 10:00pm plus who knows what at 11:35. From #1 in late night to quite a mess in a year, ultimately to satisfy the ego of Jay Leno and NBC's misplaced horror about the idea of having to compete against him.

[bicker]

NBC was stupid for being afraid of the competitionProof? It sure is easy to second-guess people after-the-fact, without any chance of having to justify your criticisms of their decisions. Specifically: What makes you think that Leno on Fox or ABC, at 11:30 pm, wouldn't seriously damage The Tonight Show's ratings and profits?

and Leno is at fault for accepting the 10pm show.What specific tenets of his personal goals and aspirations, and/or of his personal beliefs and values, were undercut by his decision? (I think you're evaluating his decision based on your own personal criteria, rather than judging him, as is proper, based on his own chosen criteria.)

When they were railroading down with their "it's cheap; we're OK with lower ratings" mantra, I don't think they expected the bleeding to last past 10:59:59pm.What made you think that? We all were talking about it, and they're much smarter than we are, when it comes to this business. I believe that a reasonable person would readily acknowledge that they knew that there would be an impact on the affiliates.

My guess is that the only surprise for NBC in all this is just the measures that some affiliates might be taking to try to undercut the network, in retribution for the negative impact on NBC's actions in this regard.

[DevdogAZ]

OK, I'll say they're both at fault. NBC was stupid for being afraid of the competition and Leno is at fault for accepting the 10pm show. The latter decision was a huge middle finger to Conan and The Tonight Show as the institution it is. Maybe Leno figured Conan deserved it for being cunning in his own negotiations to get The Tonight Show? Leno had the show for more than a decade and is plenty stale, so I thought it seemed like a smart transition. It's not like Conan didn't put his time in and earn it.

However, the biggest fault does fall on NBC. This decision to offer Leno this show has not only wiped out their 10pm timeslot, but also screwed all programming that comes after it. When they were railroading down with their "it's cheap; we're OK with lower ratings" mantra, I don't think they expected the bleeding to last past 10:59:59pm. Now these rumors show they will possibly have a hole at 10:00pm plus who knows what at 11:35. From #1 in late night to quite a mess in a year, ultimately to satisfy the ego of Jay Leno and NBC's misplaced horror about the idea of having to compete against him.
Once again, please provide any evidence that NBC was trying to satisfy Leno's ego or that their fear of having to compete against him was misplaced. You may not like Leno. That's fine. But your post reads as if it's based on your biased opinion, not on the facts. You claim Leno's show was stale. However, the facts are that he dominated the ratings for 16 straight years and showed no signs of slowing down when NBC pushed him to the curb.

Your post talks about satisfying Leno's ego, but does it really require a huge ego to want to simply keep doing a job you love, even if you have to do it at a different time or for a different employer?

You talk about NBC's "misplaced horror" at the idea of competing against Leno. We'll never know for sure, since the Leno brand has now been significantly tainted, but I think it's a fairly safe assumption that had Leno left NBC last spring and started a competing late-night show on ABC or FOX, he'd have decimated both Conan and Letterman in the ratings. There's nothing to indicate his viewers wouldn't have simply switched channels and kept watching him.

You claim that Leno accepting the 10pm slot was a huge middle finger to Conan and the institution of The Tonight Show. In hindsight, it turns out Leno's show appears to have damaged TTS. But what comedian wouldn't have jumped at the chance to host his own show in prime time? Put yourself in his shoes. Would you turn down a chance to host a primetime show five nights a week and make millions of dollars a year? Why should he have been scared to be a pioneer? What if NBC had offered the same deal to Carson in 1975. Do you really think he'd have turned it down?

You claim Conan put in his time and earned a shot at The Tonight Show. Since when is that position automatically given to someone after putting in a certain amount of time at Late Night? Don't you think Leno earned the right to go out on his own terms, just like Carson did?

Once again, I understand the experiment didn't work. Everyone involved has egg on their face. But I simply can't understand those that want to place the blame on Leno. Would you really have done anything differently in his shoes?

[Cainebj]

I'm am more interested in hearing what NBC is going to do with the additional 5 hours of 10 pm programming?

If it is true this is all going to happen immediately after the Olympics - that's right around the corner...

Betcha they are kicking themselves over letting go Southland and Medium now :)

[marksman]

.. because it is always best to make capricious and arbitrary business decisions, instead of actually thinking and trying to figure out what would really be best. :rolleyes:

That would be thinking things through. Have you been paying attention to what NBC has managed to accomplish lately?

I would say you could start with what would be best be pretty much nothing they have been trying, so you would be fairly safe jettisoning them all.

I am not even using Hyperbole. NBC has failed on a monumental level. Which is even more surprising because their cable channels group consists of some very strong channels.

So yeah it might be extreme to kick them all out since some of them just got there... but anyone who was actively there and involved in the decisions that lead them to this point would be free to walk. I would not have much trouble living with that as a business decision.

[ovr8ted]

I have a suggestion for NBC:

Monday 10PM - Who cares, its Monday, we are all tired from work.

Tuesday 10PM - Create another mindless H-E-R-E C-O-M-E-S T-H-E J-O-K-E show.

Wednesday 10PM - Bring back Arrested Development!

Thursday 10PM - Bring back Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles!

Friday 10PM - Bring back Firefly!

Just a few thoughts ;)

[Einselen]

I love how the canceled shows are Fox.

[Lori]

Part of the reason that Conan is suffering is that he is directly competing with Jay for guests, something that they never had to deal with when Jay was in Cali and Conan was in NY. Now, Jay is more likely to book a-list stars...why would they do Conan after?

[FilmCritic3000]

I don't hate Leno. I just don't see how anyone thinks he's funny.

This. :up:

[Roadblock]

As a Leno fan, I'll admit that his new show sucks and he's not been very good since he moved to 10pm. But Conan is definitely NOT better. He's quirkier. He's good at acting out his jokes after the punchline. But he's not better.

Better at what? Being funny? He's 10,000x better.

[smak]

I think anyone who has read The Late Shift isn't surprised by this at all. Leno is one ambitious throat-cutting, backstabbing, S.O.B. He convinced NBC to screw over Letterman, and now Conan.

This time, there isn't even the pretense of "Oh, it wasn't me. I'm the nice guy that everyone loves. It was Helen Kushnick."

It's funny, even the actor who played Letterman in the late shift is 50x better than the actor who played Jay.

He's one of my favorites!

-smak-

[smak]

I think anyone who has read The Late Shift isn't surprised by this at all. Leno is one ambitious throat-cutting, backstabbing, S.O.B. He convinced NBC to screw over Letterman, and now Conan.

This time, there isn't even the pretense of "Oh, it wasn't me. I'm the nice guy that everyone loves. It was Helen Kushnick."

And he really screwed over Carson.

If Leno gets 11:30 back, I probably won't believe the aw shucks I go where they tell me which he normally does.

-smak-

[smak]

If I was Conan, I'd leave for ABC or FOX. Screw this. Leno is the Favre of television: he said he was retiring from "The Tonight Show", so they gave the show to Conan. Then he said he didn't want to retire, so NBC gave him the 10p show. He sucked in ratings, so now they want to take the 11:35p slot from Conan and give it back to Leno.

Byeee....Conan should move to ABC or FOX, go head to head against Leno & Letterman. He may not beat Leno in ratings, but he can at least take SOME of his viewers away so Leno's second to Letterman.

This would be worse than the "Favre of TV". It would have been like Favre coming back to the Packers and screwing with Aaron Rodgers, who this year was a top 3 QB.

-smak-

[IJustLikeTivo]

Part of the reason that Conan is suffering is that he is directly competing with Jay for guests, something that they never had to deal with when Jay was in Cali and Conan was in NY. Now, Jay is more likely to book a-list stars...why would they do Conan after?

I don't think that's the problem. Amy Adams has been on Regis, Jimmy Fallon, Letterman, and a dozen other programs this week for her new movie. If they're gonna be on the shows, the more the merrier. I suspect the issue is that Conan has a more NY sensibility whereas Jay is classic west coast after all these years.

NBC is chasing the money. Ratings wise, Conan is costing them too much money in lost share points. It better to move Leno back and re-program the 10PM slot. They can steal lots of content from their USA network which is a hit generating machine and put that in the 10 PM slots.

[dswallow]

They should move Leno to a subchannel. Make use of digital TV properly.

[IJustLikeTivo]

I think anyone who has read The Late Shift isn't surprised by this at all. Leno is one ambitious throat-cutting, backstabbing, S.O.B. He convinced NBC to screw over Letterman, and now Conan.

This time, there isn't even the pretense of "Oh, it wasn't me. I'm the nice guy that everyone loves. It was Helen Kushnick."

Come on, read the whole book not just the stuff that reinforces your prejudice. Neither Leno NOR Letterman covered themselves with Glory.

Both of them clearly wanted the slot, the primary difference is that Jay worked behind the scene whereas Dave tried to influence it from the front.

In the end, NBC made the call that clearly was correct given that Leno won the ratings war handily for years.

Now, having said that, I can't imagine what dumbass asked Jay to retire and then the same or another dumbass came up with the 10PM stupidity.

[ElJay]

Once again, please provide any evidence that NBC was trying to satisfy Leno's ego or that their fear of having to compete against him was misplaced. You may not like Leno. That's fine. But your post reads as if it's based on your biased opinion, not on the facts. You claim Leno's show was stale. However, the facts are that he dominated the ratings for 16 straight years and showed no signs of slowing down when NBC pushed him to the curb.

Of course my posts are my own biased opinion. I never meant to assert otherwise. You, bicker, et al are free to disagree with my opinion. It seems the move to 10pm has not expanded the audience for stale comedy to a point of being self-sustaining for a prime time slot. In addition it has kneecapped any potential success of Conan's Tonight Show with its massive suckage.

[marksman]

They should move Leno to a subchannel. Make use of digital TV properly.

I refuse to make a joke about people being able to find 5-1.

[marksman]

Once again, I understand the experiment didn't work. Everyone involved has egg on their face. But I simply can't understand those that want to place the blame on Leno. Would you really have done anything differently in his shoes?

I am not a fan of Leno's show but I agree. I would not place any plame for the destruction of NBC on Leno's lap. He was simply the catalyst and focal point of what caused it all to go astray.

Jay seemingly went along with the plan 5 years ago, because what other choice did he have? He loved doing the Tonight Show and figured he would get to do it at least 5 more years and he could worry about beyond that later.

I think without a doubt in my mind Jay Leno would have gone on happily doing the Tonight Show in its normal timeslot until he dropped dead or decided to stop. I never saw any indication that Jay ever wanted anything else. The 10:00pm thing was NBC begging Jay to stay and not go somewhere else when they realized Jay really did not want to retire like they told him he wanted to do 5 years ago.

I don't blame Conan either. He wanted a chance at the Tonight Show and negotiated a deal. I just hope his payoff and contract are guaranteed for the full length and not just for 6 months and NBC gets out of paying him 45 million or whatever.

NBC 100% screwed this up because they wanted to avoid losing Conan like they lost Letterman. Miraculously they will potentially now lose Conan anyways, but also cost them potentially a billion dollars or more in the process. It is really amazing and breathtaking how they managed to do all of this.

They could have just told Conan, we appreciate that you want to be the Tonight Show host, but Jay is doing well and as long as he wants to stay there he will have the job. I am sorry if that is a problem for you, but we would love for you to continue at your current slot.

If Conan decided he deserved the earlier slot, then he obviously could have left when his contract was up and gone somewhere else. Jimmy Fallon would have likely still filled in for Conan, and now Conan would likely be on another network losing to both Jay and Dave, with all of them getting a smaller piece of the pie, most likely.

Instead they blew up their entire primetime schedule, jettisioned shows, offered Conan and huge payment if they don't give him the tonight show, killed all their affiliates in their late night newscasts and seriously damaged the Tonight Show franchise.

Two very different paths to get to the same exact spot. If they could only make a tv show as exciting as their scheduling and programming choices. Perhaps that should be an idea for a new show for them.

[smak]

We can blame Jay for putting on a bad show that barely anybody liked or watched can't we?

-smak-

[Turtleboy]

I think there is an unwritten rule about guests appearing on both shows within a certain period of time though.

[bicker]

That would be thinking things through. Have you been paying attention to what NBC has managed to accomplish lately?Yes, taking risks. Introducing great shows onto USA and Syfy. Working to find out where the industry is going to be, not tomorrow, but ten years from now.

You cannot make an omelet without breaking some eggs.

NBC has failed on a monumental level. Which is even more surprising because their cable channels group consists of some very strong channels.So now I'll ask you... have you been "thinking things through"? Because you clearly have all the facts to make some projections about possibilities that would have prevented you from posting the ridiculous suggestion you made earlier. Just put together the data in front of you, and you should realize your error.

[FilmCritic3000]

Yes, taking risks. Introducing great shows onto USA and Syfy. Working to find out where the industry is going to be, not tomorrow, but ten years from now.

You cannot make an omelet without breaking some eggs.

So now I'll ask you... have you been "thinking things through"? Because you clearly have all the facts to make some projections about possibilities that would have prevented you from posting the ridiculous suggestion you made earlier. Just put together the data in front of you, and you should realize your error.

Hmmm...I guess I'm looking at all the wrong data. You know, the actual data that definitively states that NBC has been in fourth place for years now.

[bicker]

You are looking at the wrong data.

Here: http://www.ge.com/investors/index.html

Some insights from Business 101, which perhaps you missed: NBC is a service provided by a division. All that matters is the performance of the division.

[lew]

What made you think that? We all were talking about it, and they're much smarter than we are, when it comes to this business. I believe that a reasonable person would readily acknowledge that they knew that there would be an impact on the affiliates.

My guess is that the only surprise for NBC in all this is just the measures that some affiliates might be taking to try to undercut the network, in retribution for the negative impact on NBC's actions in this regard.

At least a month ago NBC owed sponsors givebacks due to Leno ratings on 11 nights. I'm sure that number has increased. A reasonable person would acknowledge the ratings were dipping below the low number NBC had hoped for.

NBC isn't as smart as you claim if they thought the affiliates would accept the effect of low ratings on their local news. The first clue should have been having to threaten the Boston affiliate into carrying Leno.

[RayChuang88]

I think this entire debacle will end up costing NBC Universal President Jeff Zucker his job--especially with the NBC affiliates grumbling about the low ratings of The Jay Leno Show hurting the ratings of the 11 pm ET/PT / 10 pm CT/MT late night broadcasts on these affiliates! :mad:

And this on top of rumors that NBC Universal may end up losing money BIG TIME with the Winter Olympics coverage next month--a loss that could also cost NBC Sports President Dick Ebersol his job.

It may sound far-fetched, but the possibility of re-awarding the US television contract for the 2012 Summer Olympics is quite real, because NBC Universal is starting to really bleed money in light of the problems I mentioned above, and they may have second thoughts about committing US$2 billion to the 2012 Summer Olympics coverage. In short, the coverage could literally land in the hands of Disney's ESPN subsidiary, the only group that could handle the logistics of Olympics coverage outside of NBC Universal.

[bicker]

The first clue should have been having to threaten the Boston affiliate into carrying Leno.Nah, that's noise. The owner of the affiliate here is a bozo.

[dswallow]

Jay seemingly went along with the plan 5 years ago, because what other choice did he have? He loved doing the Tonight Show and figured he would get to do it at least 5 more years and he could worry about beyond that later.

Sounds about as smart as people who went for 5/1 ARMs. :)

[netringer]

It's funny, even the actor who played Letterman in the late shift is 50x better than the actor who played Jay.

He's one of my favorites!

I agree. I really like The Late Shift movie and have watched it many times. It was directed by Betty Thomas of Second City and Hill Street Blues.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0116835/

John Michael Higgins (Dave) has been a member of Christopher Guest's movie improv ensemble and has done a good job.

You saw Daniel Roebuck in the two Fugitive movies and on some TV shows (NCIS?) I think he got the job primarily because he has a long face to make the Leno makeup work. I think he did a decent job but it was a little wooden.

Kathie Bates as helen Kushnik did her usual outstanding job and stole the movie. Also Bob Balaban as Warren Littlefield.

Not for nuttin'.. I saw John Kapelos (Morton) as that year's cast star at Second City in the same cast with Richard Kind and Lance Kinsey.

Come on, read the whole book not just the stuff that reinforces your prejudice. Neither Leno NOR Letterman covered themselves with Glory.

Both of them clearly wanted the slot, the primary difference is that Jay worked behind the scene whereas Dave tried to influence it from the front.

In the end, NBC made the call that clearly was correct given that Leno won the ratings war handily for years.

...

The movie shows that Dave never strongly said he wanted the Tonight Show NOW even though he had a clause in his contract. NBC was truly surprised when he fought for it.

Leno's rating were better for a long time - and only after Leno had on Hugh Grant with "What were you thinking" - because CBS had worthless lead in shows and they had a very small portion of clearance - affiliates carrying the show. The affiliates were making bucks with their own programming in the slot, then they claimed Letterman was too raunchy for their markets. If you adjusted Letterman's ratings for the number of markets he was on he smoked Leno.

[netringer]

...Conan lists the rumors he's heard about his late-night future. "NBC is going to throw me and Jay in a pit with sharpened sticks. The one who crawls out gets to leave NBC," he quipped. "That is an appealing proposition."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/09/conan-skewers-nbc-in-mono_n_417221.html


Conan is gonna set sail. NBC will lose him just like they lost Dave, and they'll have Jay Leno back with lousier ratings that drop continously as his viewers die of old age. Conan will keep his portion of Leno's former viewers and Dave will do fine.

Watch for Conan and NBC to negotiate a cheaper poison pill price and set the last day for Conan.

What's amazing is how this is deja vu all over again for NBC, and they learned nothing from the last time but maybe it's a Kobiashi Maru scenario.

[Wil]

You saw Daniel Roebuck in the two Fugitive movies and on some TV shows (NCIS?)... and parts of him on Hugo in Lost.

[aindik]

We can blame Jay for putting on a bad show that barely anybody liked or watched can't we?

-smak-

Isn't he getting the same number of viewers at 10:00 as he got at 11:35?

[TheMerk]

... and parts of him on Hugo in Lost.

OMG you're right. He played Doc Arzt.

[DevdogAZ]

What's amazing is how this is deja vu all over again for NBC, and they learned nothing from the last time but maybe it's a Kobiashi Maru scenario.
What is it you think they should have learned from the last time? Are you saying that choosing the guy who dominated the ratings for 16 years was the wrong decision? If so, I think that's a pretty subjective opinion. From a financial standpoint, NBC definitely made the right decision in 1992.

[DevdogAZ]

I think there is an unwritten rule about guests appearing on both shows within a certain period of time though.
I doubt it. Guests go on these shows to promote a project, usually an upcoming film, TV show or book. Why should the guests be prevented from promoting their project to the highest number of people just because a single network has two different shows that serve roughly the same purpose? There are often celebs on The Today Show promoting their projects. Are those celebs then prevented from appearing on Leno or Conan, since they've already plugged their project on NBC's airwaves?

[Turtleboy]

There is an unwritten rule between the shows.

Prove me wrong with a guest that appeared on both Leno and Conan within a very short period of time. They're both in L.A. so it's not like it would be difficult.

[Test]

There is an unwritten rule between the shows.

Prove me wrong with a guest that appeared on both Leno and Conan within a very short period of time. They're both in L.A. so it's not like it would be difficult.

You're right and I remembered seeing something about Conan getting first pick of a list guests...I'll try to find the link

edit: that was easy

http://digg.com/television/NBC_Execs_to_Leno_Conan_Gets_First_Dibs_on_A_List_Guests

[marksman]

You are looking at the wrong data.

Here: http://www.ge.com/investors/index.html

Some insights from Business 101, which perhaps you missed: NBC is a service provided by a division. All that matters is the performance of the division.

Most of the success of Nbc Universal these days comes from the cable channels. NBC has had minor increases in profits with significant decreases in revenue, while also killing all their affiliates.

You can think that is a good idea or good business, but most people even in a business 101 class would not.

[marksman]

What is it you think they should have learned from the last time? Are you saying that choosing the guy who dominated the ratings for 16 years was the wrong decision? If so, I think that's a pretty subjective opinion. From a financial standpoint, NBC definitely made the right decision in 1992.

Perhaps.

It is impossible to say that Letterman would not have been equally as succesful in the Tonight SHow gig as Leno was even if he did end up competing with him. First of all there is no guarantee Leno would have went on to compete against him with someone else. He was not an established talk show host at the time, and the Tonight Show history and audience was there and a foundation for Jay to build on.

If NBC closed the tonight show down and Leno started on Fox at the same time Dave went to CBS, it is not a given that Leno would have beaten Dave the same way he did.

[bicker]

Most of the success of Nbc Universal these days comes from the cable channels.Perhaps even deliberately at the expense of its OTA network. Who knows?

You can think that is a good idea or good business, but most people even in a business 101 class would not.That's why they have four years to gain an education, and then many years of experience in industry before their thinking is considered worthy of deference.

[netringer]

What is it you think they should have learned from the last time? Are you saying that choosing the guy who dominated the ratings for 16 years was the wrong decision? If so, I think that's a pretty subjective opinion. From a financial standpoint, NBC definitely made the right decision in 1992.

Kobashi Maru - the unwinnable scenario. That's what I meant.

Where its the same is NBC dissing the hipper young guy in favor of the one the suits like for playing along. They'll keep Jay and the older demographic snd the advertisers will follow Conan.

[mrdazzo7]

I just read that if they move Jay back to 11:35, his show will be a half-hour of mostly his monologue. I'm really not understanding the undying devotion NBC seems to have for him. I have nothing against him, I think he's fine, but he's a late night host--this whole five-nights-a-week prime time thing was a horrible idea from jump street. And now, after years of waiting, Conan's gonna get pushed back with what, seven, eight months of air time? I personally can't stand conan but if that was me I'd bounce. It's a huge slap in the face in favor of someone who clearly doesn't have the viewership.

Would people really tune into a show of just Jay Leno and no guests? a half hour show equates to about 22 minutes of show time, so even if he has a guest, how long can they chat for? I guess the format would have to be like Chelsey Handler's show on E, but her interviews from what I've seen are very brief. And i don't think Jay Leno is funny enough to survive on his monologue.

[TheMerk]

I just read that if they move Jay back to 11:35, his show will be a half-hour of mostly his monologue. I'm really not understanding the undying devotion NBC seems to have for him. I have nothing against him, I think he's fine, but he's a late night host--this whole five-nights-a-week prime time thing was a horrible idea from jump street. And now, after years of waiting, Conan's gonna get pushed back with what, seven, eight months of air time? I personally can't stand conan but if that was me I'd bounce. It's a huge slap in the face in favor of someone who clearly doesn't have the viewership.

Would people really tune into a show of just Jay Leno and no guests? a half hour show equates to about 22 minutes of show time, so even if he has a guest, how long can they chat for? I guess the format would have to be like Chelsey Handler's show on E, but her interviews from what I've seen are very brief. And i don't think Jay Leno is funny enough to survive on his monologue.

Offering Leno a half hour show at 11:35 and pushing Conan back to 12:05 is NBC's way to get Conan to quit, without having to fire him.

[mrdazzo7]

Offering Leno a half hour show at 11:35 and pushing Conan back to 12:05 is NBC's way to get Conan to quit, without having to fire him.

Why though? I thought he was doing ok with the Tonight Show... Was it not performing? I still don't get the point of investing in someone for that long only to force them out months later. Give the guy a year to build an audience in that slot.

[Turtleboy]

Why though? I thought he was doing ok with the Tonight Show... Was it not performing? I still don't get the point of investing in someone for that long only to force them out months later. Give the guy a year to build an audience in that slot.

Yeah, I don't know why they're looking to give Conan, not Jay, the boot. Bringing Jay back to 1130, as damaged goods, isn't going to save things.

[terpfan1980]

Yeah, I don't know why they're looking to give Conan, not Jay, the boot. Bringing Jay back to 1130, as damaged goods, isn't going to save things.

It would likely save the 10pm time slot, but other than that, yeah, probably not going to do all that much in the long term. Leno's hard core fans are still not going to stick around for Conan, and the hard core haters aren't gonna be happy that Leno is back at 11:35 (making Conan slide that much later, if they are fans of Conan).

Sadly, if they do push Leno back to 11:35 and then push Conan back it's still not gonna tell them whether or not Conan is really the problem or not, especially if Leno doesn't bring much audience to his own later show.

[TheMerk]

Why though? I thought he was doing ok with the Tonight Show... Was it not performing? I still don't get the point of investing in someone for that long only to force them out months later. Give the guy a year to build an audience in that slot.

But NBC doesn't have the luxury of waiting a few years, they're hemorrhaging viewers and the affiliates are pissed.

NBC could cancel Leno's 10pm show, and put dramas back in there, but there would be a very real possibility that Leno would go do an 11:35 show on Fox or ABC. Leno Has the ability to attract viewers at 11:35, that has been proven.

This is why they're offering Leno a 30 min show at 11:35: to make Conan quit.

If NBC's ultimatum forces Conan to quit and go to another net, it's a risk they're willing to take. They're betting that Leno would at least be #2 at 11:35, with Conan taking 3rd on another network.

[JimSpence]

I haven't kept up with this thread, but I wondered if NBC could have Jay and Conan share the 11:35 time slot on alternating nights.

And, what dramas would NBC put in the 10PM slot?
More L & O's :)

[aaronwt]

I watched Leno for the first time on Tuesday night (after The Biggest Loser.) When I say I watched for the first time, I mean it: I never, that I can recall, watched a single episode of his Tonight Show.

Holy crap, it was awful, self serving and, I thought, some of the jokes were borderline racist.

..............................

Not as bad as The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien.

[smak]

Isn't he getting the same number of viewers at 10:00 as he got at 11:35?

Yes, but he needed more. Otherwise they wouldn't be having the problems they are having, especially with the affiliates.

You can't just do the same show at 10 that you do at 11:30.

-smak-

[smak]

I haven't kept up with this thread, but I wondered if NBC could have Jay and Conan share the 11:35 time slot on alternating nights.

And, what dramas would NBC put in the 10PM slot?
More L & O's :)


NBC just ordered a Bruckheimer show and a David E Kelley show as well as two others. More than one probably destined for 10pm.

-smak-

[marksman]

NBC has a massive slate of pilots scheduled. I think the number I saw was like 22.

I saw it in an article where they talked about picking up the pilot for a new Adam Corolla project, which is different from the pilot CBS passed on last year.

If you think they might keep 4 sitcoms on Thursday, keep the weight loss show, with Leno in place they would have 9 hours to schedule, AFTER sunday night football ended, if they canceled Law and Order and Law and Order SVU.

If they kept both of those and during football season, they would have 4 hours to program a week. 22 pilots seems like a lot to fill potentially only 4 hours.

Of course I am guessing that the weight loss show and Sunday Night football are the only two shows on the schedule with any security. I suspect the rest of the scheduled 16 hours will all be up for grabs come next year.

[DevdogAZ]

I just read that if they move Jay back to 11:35, his show will be a half-hour of mostly his monologue. I'm really not understanding the undying devotion NBC seems to have for him. I have nothing against him, I think he's fine, but he's a late night host--this whole five-nights-a-week prime time thing was a horrible idea from jump street. And now, after years of waiting, Conan's gonna get pushed back with what, seven, eight months of air time? I personally can't stand conan but if that was me I'd bounce. It's a huge slap in the face in favor of someone who clearly doesn't have the viewership.

Would people really tune into a show of just Jay Leno and no guests? a half hour show equates to about 22 minutes of show time, so even if he has a guest, how long can they chat for? I guess the format would have to be like Chelsey Handler's show on E, but her interviews from what I've seen are very brief. And i don't think Jay Leno is funny enough to survive on his monologue.
The point is that NBC has given huge contractual guarantees to both Leno and Conan, so if they cancel either show outright, they'll have to pay a gigantic buyout clause. Rumors are that Conan's buyout is in the $40-50 million range, and I suspect Leno's is similar. By putting Jay at 11:35 and Conan at 12:05, they're once again trying to have their cake and eat it too, which is what got them into this mess in the first place.
If you think they might keep 4 sitcoms on Thursday, keep the weight loss show, with Leno in place they would have 9 hours to schedule, AFTER sunday night football ended, if they canceled Law and Order and Law and Order SVU.

If they kept both of those and during football season, they would have 4 hours to program a week. 22 pilots seems like a lot to fill potentially only 4 hours.

Of course I am guessing that the weight loss show and Sunday Night football are the only two shows on the schedule with any security. I suspect the rest of the scheduled 16 hours will all be up for grabs come next year.
NBC has already announced that they'll be bringing the original L&O back, and I'd be shocked if they didn't keep SVU, since it's their best performing drama. We also don't know how Parenthood is going to perform. For all we know, it will be a hit this spring and that will be one less hole they have to fill.

[netringer]

Carson's gone, but they're still making mistakes at NBC, especially around "Tonight," and only making a bad joke worse.

First in trying to keep Conan O'Brien from leaving, then in trying to keep Jay Leno from leaving and now in trying to keep affiliates burned by those first two moves from open rebellion, Carson's old network has found it can't wriggle out of its straitjacket. Forget about the shackles, the locked trunk and swimming to the surface.

... if NBC can't talk Leno and O'Brien into going along with some kind of face-saving compromise, the already costly mistakes of moving Leno to prime time to accommodate O'Brien's move to "Tonight" will cost the company millions more in contractual penalties.

...

Where did everything start to unravel? One could argue it was when Leno was named over David Letterman to host "Tonight" after Carson left in 1992. That's because Letterman's defection enabled CBS to establish a viable late-night franchise while Leno learned the job.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/entertainment/chi-sun-biz-phil-rosenthal-0110jan10,0,7155168.column

At this point GE is real happy the check from Comcast cleared.

[morac]

At this point GE is real happy the check from Comcast cleared.

GE does still technically own 49% of NBCU.

[bicker]

But NBC doesn't have the luxury of waiting a few yearsWhat I find most mind-numbing about this thread is how some folks make pronouncements without any semblance of foundation for them. Picking on this one... What evidence do you have that the end is near? When in the past has an substantially similar broadcaster been in a substantially similar circumstance and led to the conclusion you pronounce? THEN: Even if there was such an occasion (there hasn't been), where are the other instances, that also led to the same conclusion, that show that such a conclusion is reasonably expected to be inevitable in such a scenario.

Enough is enough, already. If you don't like what you see, you are allowed to say you don't like it. Give yourself some credit, and some credence, and believe that saying you don't like it, when that is indeed the issue, is enough. You don't need to make up inferences of doom, when the facts don't support it.

Think about, for a second, UPN and the WB. NBC is not in such bad shape as either of those were. Yet, not even those networks died! They still substantially live on, for all intents and purposes that affect viewers, in the CW. And yes, maybe -- just maybe -- the CW will cease to exist at some point. But not yet. And NBC is stronger that the CW. We are so far away from your pronouncement of doom that it is ridiculous. And even beyond that, the road is not a one way.


NBC could cancel Leno's 10pm show, and put dramas back in there, but there would be a very real possibility that Leno would go do an 11:35 show on Fox or ABC. Leno Has the ability to attract viewers at 11:35, that has been proven.

This is why they're offering Leno a 30 min show at 11:35: to make Conan quit.

If NBC's ultimatum forces Conan to quit and go to another net, it's a risk they're willing to take. They're betting that Leno would at least be #2 at 11:35, with Conan taking 3rd on another network.I totally agree with all this.

[aindik]

At this point GE is real happy the check from Comcast cleared.

The merger is not done. Lots of regulatory hurdles to clear first.

[IndyJones1023]

I hope the merger fails. I just see it as a bad thing.

[Langree]

I hope the merger fails. I just see it as a bad thing.

I agree.

If Comcast runs the network the way they run their cable company, I forsee a bunch of Burn in Hell Comcast threads.

[bicker]

The merger is not done. Lots of regulatory hurdles to clear first.True. So the check hasn't cleared yet. By the same token, I don't know of any significantly-credible sources that believe that the end-result of the regulatory hurdles will be anything other than approval with conditions.

[bicker]

If Comcast runs the network the way they run their cable company, I forsee a bunch of Burn in Hell Comcast threads.And the threads equally as vacuous as the current BiH Comcast threads.

Will this be bad for viewers? Yes. We need to get over it.

It's not always just all about us.

[Langree]

And the threads equally as vacuous as the current BiH Comcast threads.

Will this be bad for viewers? Yes. We need to get over it.

It's not always just all about us.

But without viewers a network loses money, so to some extent it is about us.

[jerrye25]

Just saw this on Alyssa Milano's twitter (yes...I follow her)

http://www.thrfeed.com/2010/01/nbc-press-tour-executive-session-live-blog.html

[MickeS]

So they want to keep Leno, Conan and Jimmy Fallon on... sounds like we'll just go back to how things were a year ago... with a "late late night" with Fallon. :)

[bicker]

But without viewers a network loses moneyThat's a false dichotomy. The choice isn't between a specific number of viewers and "without viewers". This is a parametric scenario, a nuance that generally speaking anyone who is talking about a company (specifically) "burning in hell" is simply not thinking clearly or deeply enough to appreciate. That was the point of the message you replied to.

so to some extent it is about us.But only to some extent, and even more specifically, in the case of an over-the-air broadcast network, it is about how much our viewership is worth in terms of advertising dollars and retransmission fees.

However, it was all irrelevant in this case. It all came down the politics of manipulation of public opinion, and the pressure PR considerations can have on business decisions.

[Langree]

That's a false dichotomy. The choice isn't between a specific number of viewers and "without viewers". This is a parametric scenario, a nuance that generally speaking anyone who is talking about a company (specifically) "burning in hell" is simply not thinking clearly or deeply enough to appreciate. That was the point of the message you replied to.

But only to some extent, and even more specifically, in the case of an over-the-air broadcast network, it is about how much our viewership is worth in terms of advertising dollars and retransmission fees.

But if the viewers aren't watching, ad dollars go away.

or as in this case, the affiliates threatening not to air network content. Why? because they were losing viewers and ad $$. That would mean no rebroadcast $$ from those affiliates. It may have started with a few but I'm betting it would have had a domino affect in no time.

If you think the amount of viewers doesn't play into this, you don't understand how ratings and viewership play into ad cost and revenue on both a local and network level.

[Michael S]

The nightmare is over anyway. Jay to end next month.

Jay to end next month (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/01/10/entertainment/main6079042.shtml)

[Turtleboy]

The nightmare is over anyway. Jay to end next month.

Jay to end next month (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/01/10/entertainment/main6079042.shtml)

Not yet. Does Conan bend over and take it?

[ElJay]

This proposal of giving Leno a half hour slot at 11:35 seems to be NBC solidifying the failure of The Tonight Show. No live viewer who wants to watch Conan is going to suffer through a half hour of a Jay Leno monologue.

[LoadStar]

Not yet. Does Conan bend over and take it?

Doesn't sound like he has a choice. Either he bends over, or he walks. Those seem to be his options.

[Michael S]

Not yet. Does Conan bend over and take it?


I hope not. Jay should get nothing out this. Hes used all his chances already its time for NBC to move on.

[bicker]

That's a false dichotomy.But if the viewers aren't watching, ad dollars go away.That's a false dichotomy. The choice isn't between a specific number of viewers watching and "viewers aren't watching". (And so on...) That was the point of the message you replied to.

or as in this case, the affiliates threatening not to air network content.An empty threat, as it was shown to be in WHDH's case.

... but I'm betting it would have had a domino affect in no time.One of the interesting things about going to a casino is that it is really fun putting your money on the 36-to-1 bet. Sure, you'll almost always lose, but if you ever win, heck, that'll be some party. Business is also a matter of risk, but unlike in the casino, there are fiduciary responsibilities involved. That means, yes, take risks, but take reasonable risks, and measured risks.

Your bet is interesting for you; in the absence of the pressure that what-could-have-been manipulation of public opinion by irate affiliates, the other bet, the bet that NBC took, was almost surely the better bet. The affiliates attacked hard. They fought for what was better for themselves, rather than what was better for the network, and in doing so they were doing what they were supposed to be doing, trying to push things in a direction that they believed would be to their own benefit. And they, the affiliates, were successful. They won the battle.

Now the real question is whether or not "what comes next" is even worse for them. Again, business is a matter of risk. And whatever forces worked to push back at this move by the network took a big risk that, in getting the network to back-pedal on this. They could have essentially jumped out of the frying pan into the fire.

Only time will tell.

If you think the amount of viewers doesn't play into this, you don't understand how ratings and viewership play into ad cost and revenue on both a local and network level.One thing you'll discover about me, if you pay attention: I understand the business side of this industry extremely well. The nuances in my messages, that you have repeatedly ignored, are essential aspects that you really need to understand, if you are to understand business, yourself.

[terpfan1980]

One thing you'll discover about me, if you pay attention: I understand the business side of this industry extremely well. The nuances in my messages, that you have repeatedly ignored, are essential aspects that you really need to understand, if you are to understand business, yourself.

The thing to understand about Bicker, is that much like another member or two here, the pompous and intelligently looking words just spew from someone that likes to argue and see themselves write.

Back into the /ignore list where you belong.

[Langree]

That's a false dichotomy. The choice isn't between a specific number of viewers watching and "viewers aren't watching". (And so on...) That was the point of the message you replied to.

An empty threat, as it was shown to be in WHDH's case.

One of the interesting things about going to a casino is that it is really fun putting your money on the 36-to-1 bet. Sure, you'll almost always lose, but if you ever win, heck, that'll be some party. Business is also a matter of risk, but unlike in the casino, there are fiduciary responsibilities involved. That means, yes, take risks, but take reasonable risks, and measured risks.

Your bet is interesting for you; in the absence of the pressure that what-could-have-been manipulation of public opinion by irate affiliates, the other bet, the bet that NBC took, was almost surely the better bet. The affiliates attacked hard. They fought for what was better for themselves, rather than what was better for the network, and in doing so they were doing what they were supposed to be doing, trying to push things in a direction that they believed would be to their own benefit. And they, the affiliates, were successful. They won the battle.

Now the real question is whether or not "what comes next" is even worse for them. Again, business is a matter of risk. And whatever forces worked to push back at this move by the network took a big risk that, in getting the network to back-pedal on this. They could have essentially jumped out of the frying pan into the fire.

Only time will tell.

One thing you'll discover about me, if you pay attention: I understand the business side of this industry extremely well. The nuances in my messages, that you have repeatedly ignored, are essential aspects that you really need to understand, if you are to understand business, yourself.

I understand more then you think. Really. You go ahead and keep telling yourself that viewership doesn't play into ad revenue. You'd be wrong.

[bicker]

The thing to understand about Bicker, is that much like another member or two here, the pompous and intelligently looking words just spew from someone that likes to argue and see themselves write.Or rather, I actually know what I'm talking about, and it runs contrary to what you like to read. And that by posting a message that is nothing other than a personal attack, you mistakenly think you do something other than highlight your own nature.

Back into the /ignore list where you belong.Yeah, right.

[bicker]

I understand more then you think. Really. You go ahead and keep telling yourself that viewership doesn't play into ad revenue. You'd be wrong.In never said that. Go back and actually read the messages I posted, rather than just reacting to them. Yes, they support a business perspective, which clearly rubs you the wrong way, but nothing is served by responding to them in ignorance of what they actually say.

If you just want simplistic, one-sided arguments, I hear blogs are great.

[Langree]

In never said that. Go back and actually read the messages I posted, rather than just reacting to them. Yes, they support a business perspective, which clearly rubs you the wrong way, but nothing is served by responding to them in ignorance of what they actually say.

Ok, then tell me what you're actually trying to say, because all you've managed to bluster is "false dichotomy" without really responding.



Your bet is interesting for you; in the absence of the pressure that what-could-have-been manipulation of public opinion by irate affiliates, the other bet, the bet that NBC took, was almost surely the better bet. The affiliates attacked hard. They fought for what was better for themselves, rather than what was better for the network, and in doing so they were doing what they were supposed to be doing, trying to push things in a direction that they believed would be to their own benefit. And they, the affiliates, were successful. They won the battle.


Why would it be better for the Network to keep Leno?

[Bierboy]

NBC announces (http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2010/01/10/nbc-pull-plug-lenos-prime-time/) Leno moving back to late night.

[bicker]

Ok, then tell me what you're actually trying to say, because all you've managed to bluster is "false dichotomy" without really responding."Bluster"? WTF. Geez: Go look up "dichotomy" if you don't know what it means. And if you do know what it means, then you know your comment, here, is ridiculous.

Anyway: You kept on trying to defend what you were saying by basing your argument on viewers not watching -- an absolute. That's unreasonable. I pointed that out to you. Twice. You ignored it, instead of acknowledging it. Perhaps instead of understanding it, I can't tell.

The reason why NBC put Leno at 10PM was that Leno costs a lot less than scripted dramas. A lot less. They knew from the beginning that they would get fewer viewers and that there would be consequent negative impact on affiliates as well. It was still worth it for NBC. Even as things have worked out, it was almost surely a win for NBC.

Your false dichotomy specifically failed to recognize that it was possible to have fewer viewers, rather than no viewers.

All indications are that NBC is bowing to pressure, ostensibly from their affiliates or on their affiliates behalf.



Why would it be better for the Network to keep Leno?What is the context of your question. At this point, the network still has Leno.

[netringer]

NBC announces (http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2010/01/10/nbc-pull-plug-lenos-prime-time/) Leno moving back to late night.

Conan's gonna set sail but NBC will only announce that Jimmy Fallon will start at 12:05.

[lambertman]

Conan's gonna set sail but NBC will only announce that Jimmy Fallon will start at 12:05.

The two options on the table are:

1) Jay Show 11:35; Tonight/Conan 12:05; Fallon 1:05
or
2) Conan leaves; Tonight/Leno 11:35; Fallon 12:35

[netringer]

The two options on the table are:

1) Jay Show 11:35; Tonight/Conan 12:05; Fallon 1:05
or
2) Conan leaves; Tonight/Leno 11:35; Fallon 12:35

Yeah. I did figure when Conan goes they'll just give Leno the hour.

Dave called Johnny Carson for advice on what to do. Maybe Conan will call Dave (his competiton!)

[Langree]

What is the context of your question. At this point, the network still has Leno.

Now you're being dense, I'll spell it out for you, why would keeping leno at 10:00pm have been better for the network? Beyond "it's cheap to air".

Apparently your knowledge of how this business works is solely on paper, spend some time with station managers then get back to me.

[Turtleboy]

Yeah. I did figure when Conan goes they'll just give Leno the hour.

Dave called Johnny Carson for advice on what to do. Maybe Conan will call Dave (his competiton!)

Dave to Conan, "Jay Leno stabbed you in the back and NBC screwed you over the Tonight Show. Wait, your surprised?"

[bicker]

Now you're being dense, I'll spell it out for you, why would keeping leno at 10:00pm have been better for the network? Beyond "it's cheap to air".You essentially answered your own question.

Apparently your knowledge of how this business works is solely on paper, spend some time with station managers then get back to me.Station managers? Gosh, talk about "dense". I can see why your perspective is so heavily affiliate-biased -- why you are having such a hard time seeing the network's point-of-view.

[Langree]

You essentially answered your own question.

Station managers? Gosh, talk about "dense". I can see why your perspective is so heavily affiliate-biased -- why you are having such a hard time seeing the network's point-of-view.

Without affiliates to air their shows there would be no network. There is a reason they gave into the affiliates. You're the one not getting it.

One affiliate threatens, no biggie. 20,30,40 in major markets complain. You get their attention.

[pcguru83]

Interesting article on Conan's options:

Conan O'Brien Mulls Jump To New Network (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703481004574646660133894126.html?mod=article-outset-box)

It's interesting (but not surprising I suppose) that he apparently has already had talks with other networks, namely Fox. I sure hope Conan finds a place where he can fit again--I really like the current format/content of the current The Tonight Show.

[Amnesia]

Dave to Conan, "Jay Leno stabbed you in the back and NBC screwed you over the Tonight Show. Wait, your surprised?"
What did Jay do to Conan?