Pilot Season is Almost Upon Us

[BeanMeScot]

Pilot season will soon start. So which shows have the good buzz?

[Neenahboy]

I really enjoyed the pilot of NBC's Community. Or at least, the parts I was able to see...they really dropped the ball when they uploaded it to Facebook. But it definitely shows some promise; the combination of Joel McHale and John Oliver could prove to be very interesting.

The new Wednesday comedy hour on ABC (Modern Family and Cougar Town) looks like a force to be reckoned with if they continue to market it like they have been.

I'm also excited for The Good Wife on CBS. Maybe Julianna Margulies can get attached to a legal drama that doesn't suck this time.

[jschuur]

Pilot season will soon start.
In the TV industry, 'pilot season' is typically when pilots are cast and filmed, i.e. back in the spring. I realize you're thinking of when they air, so it's more correct to just call it 'fall season'.

Yeah. I went there :)

[bicker]

Pulled this from another website, so it may not be directly to the OP but it is close...

I haven't kept track of how well I've done, [guessing what will do well and what won't], but I suspect that my track record isn't necessarily that stellar. My wife and I do tend to resonate, with regard to dramas (only), with what the general public ends up liking, but that only ends up with us picking up series that I misjudged early on later. Some examples of this include Lie To Me and NCIS -- both shows that I didn't pick as winners, that we didn't even watch when the premiered, but that we ended up watching religiously after [they became hits]. And paralleling that, my wife and I have several times gotten really excited about a show, only to drop it pretty quickly, followed soon thereafter with a network cancellation (i.e., Harper Island, Dirty Sexy Money). And there are those cases where we're just totally off base (Eli Stone, Pushing Daisies).

So my safest prediction is that I'm going to be about 50% wrong with my predictions below. :)

1) Which shows will be big hits (and surely renewed for 2010-2011)?
I'm going to be optimistic here, and put Flash Forward on this list. There are so many reasons why this is a bold choice, but I think there are enough Lost fans who will check it out and if done well this could be as successful as Fringe was last year (and I consider that a big hit). The other show I'm going to put on this list is one I think is a no-brainer: NCIS: Los Angeles.

2) Which shows, while not necessarily big hits, will be at least renewed for 2010-2011?
As I go over the list, I'm a bit spooked. As much as I think there are a lot of good choices this year, I think that success might be much more random than quality. I'm going to put The Beautiful Life on this list, and The Good Wife. Because I need to be sure I get at least one correct, I'm going to list Stargate Universe here, but I think White Collar will also earn a renewal. Also, Melrose Place. And I'll go out on a limb, and list The Forgotten, but that's probably going to be wrong. For comedies, I'm going to guess that Modern Family will achieve a renewal.

3) Which shows will be canceled before episode 13 is broadcast?
My bold choice for this list is Eastwick. I'm also going to list "either" Trauma or Mercy (not sure which one). For comedies, I'm going to guess that The Middle is going to fail.

4) Which comedy and which drama will be the first canceled in their respective genre?
Drama: Again "either" Trauma or Mercy (not sure which one).
Comedy: The Middle.

I really enjoyed the pilot of NBC's Community.Yeah, but presenting three episodes and then moving a series is never a good idea AFAIC. And where do they move it? Up against Grey's Anatomy, CSI and the number one new show from last season, Fringe. They're not giving Community a smooth road to travel.

[USAFSSO]

............

Yeah, but presenting three episodes and then moving a series is never a good idea AFAIC. And where do they move it? Up against Grey's Anatomy, CSI and the number one new show from last season, Fringe. They're not giving Community a smooth road to travel.

But Thurs is NBC's Big Comedy Night...The Office, 30 Rock.

[That Don Guy]

In the TV industry, 'pilot season' is typically when pilots are cast and filmed, i.e. back in the spring. I realize you're thinking of when they air, so it's more correct to just call it 'fall season'.
When was the last time a show's pilot was significantly different from the eventual series? It seems that airing the pilot (and keeping the episode title as "Pilot") as the show's first episode is now the rule rather than the exception.

So my safest prediction is that I'm going to be about 50% wrong with my predictions below. :)

1) Which shows will be big hits (and surely renewed for 2010-2011)?
I'm going to be optimistic here, and put Flash Forward on this list. There are so many reasons why this is a bold choice, but I think there are enough Lost fans who will check it out and if done well this could be as successful as Fringe was last year (and I consider that a big hit). The other show I'm going to put on this list is one I think is a no-brainer: NCIS: Los Angeles.
I think V is going to do surprisingly well. ("It won't be as good as the original" didn't hurt Battlestar Galactica any.)

2) Which shows, while not necessarily big hits, will be at least renewed for 2010-2011?
As I go over the list, I'm a bit spooked. As much as I think there are a lot of good choices this year, I think that success might be much more random than quality. I'm going to put The Beautiful Life on this list, and The Good Wife. Because I need to be sure I get at least one correct, I'm going to list Stargate Universe here, but I think White Collar will also earn a renewal. Also, Melrose Place. And I'll go out on a limb, and list The Forgotten, but that's probably going to be wrong. For comedies, I'm going to guess that Modern Family will achieve a renewal.
Technically, one show has already been renewed: The Cleveland Show.

Brothers will probably make it to a second season, if they don't do something stupid like bring in some teenage (or younger) "cousin". (The names "Jeremy" and "Oliver" have been taken...)
Also, although I have a feeling Glee is being overhyped and won't quite live up to expectations, it should have enough of a following to be renewed.

3) Which shows will be canceled before episode 13 is broadcast?
My bold choice for this list is Eastwick. I'm also going to list "either" Trauma or Mercy (not sure which one). For comedies, I'm going to guess that The Middle is going to fail.
I'll add Hank and Accidentally on Purpose to that list.

4) Which comedy and which drama will be the first canceled in their respective genre?
Drama: Again "either" Trauma or Mercy (not sure which one).
Comedy: The Middle.
Drama: probably Mercy - NBC already has plans to air "instant repeats" of Trauma on Saturday nights, so if it tanks in its normal slot, the remaining episodes will just be dumped on Saturdays.
Comedy: Accidentally on Purpose

I also have a feeling Fox is going to discover it made a mistake by moving So You Think You Can Dance? from the summer to the fall. Most people aren't particularly interested in watching "no names" dance (quick - name any of the "professional dancer" winners on Dancing with the Stars).

Yeah, but presenting three episodes and then moving a series is never a good idea AFAIC. And where do they move it? Up against Grey's Anatomy, CSI and the number one new show from last season, Fringe. They're not giving Community a smooth road to travel.
Why doesn't NBC move The Office to 8:00 and 30 Rock to 9:00? Those are its two strongest Thursday shows now.

-- Don

[SorenTodd]

Tonight's Glee will include never before seen material (well not on FOX but I saw some of it on You Tube over the summer).

I'm already Gleek-ed, this will most likely be my favorite new show of '09.

[jschuur]

When was the last time a show's pilot was significantly different from the eventual series? It seems that airing the pilot (and keeping the episode title as "Pilot") as the show's first episode is now the rule rather than the exception.
I wasn't implying that the opening episode of a series might be re-shot by the time it airs in the fall. I was mostly commenting on the fact that the phrase 'pilot season' has a specific, established definition, and it takes place during the spring when pilots are put together and not the fall when new shows air.

[bicker]

According to the Museum of Broadcast Communications, "pilot season" is the first four months of the year, January through April.

[That Don Guy]

I wasn't implying that the opening episode of a series might be re-shot by the time it airs in the fall. I was mostly commenting on the fact that the phrase 'pilot season' has a specific, established definition, and it takes place during the spring when pilots are put together and not the fall when new shows air.
I understand that (and there was a time when the networks had some sort of "comedy showcase" series during the summer during which they aired a handful of unsold pilots). I was just commenting that there was a time when pilots didn't air as part of the series; now, it seems that they almost always do.

-- Don

[Steveknj]

The one rule I have about new shows, if I like it, it's usually going to get cancelled. But of course of the top 20 shows from last year, I think I only watched regularly about 2 or 3. Shows I DON'T like" (in a Coxian list):

Any CSI
Any NCIS
Any L&O (notice a pattern here?)
Any Talent contest (such as DWTS or AI)
Any sappy soap opera laden family (i.e. appeals to women) drama

Shows I DID like but nobody else did (at least by the ratings)
Pushing Daisies
Arrested Development
Eli Stone
Worst Week
The Unusuals
Chuck (BARELY hanging on)
(notice this pattern? quirky and different)

There ARE a few popluar shows that have had staying power despite me:
Lost
24
Fringe

Even I couldn't dismantle those!

So, once I get a chance to look at the new schedule I'll choose what I'll watch and I suggest that nobody get too involved in them, as they are destined to be cancelled.

Actually I'd LOVE everyone to watch, but I know that's not going to happen!!

[classicX]

So where can we find the full list on new fall shows, in order to properly answer the question?

[bicker]

Lots of places. I'll send you a PM for one.

[classicX]

Alright, checked out the list. Thx bicker.

I don't know about buzz, but these are the ones I'm excited about:
V
Stargate Universe
Flash Forward [although I don't think this one will last very long, as has been the case with a lot of good shows with unusual plots]

I will also probably watch Modern Family, but I wouldn't say I'm "excited" about it. The only comedy I watch faithfully since Seinfeld is How I Met Your Mother, so SitComs are not really a priority for me or my wife.

[tivogurl]

Up against Grey's Anatomy, CSI and the number one new show from last season, Fringe.
By putting Fringe in that timeslot, I'd say Fox wants Fringe to fail.

[tivogurl]

I have Day One, Flash Forward, Caprica, and Stargate Universe on my new fall viewing list. I predict the network shows don't make it past Christmas. The SyFy (how I hated typing that) shows will probably get a full season, but the previews I've seen so far haven't been very compelling.

[bicker]

By putting Fringe in that timeslot, I'd say Fox wants Fringe to fail.That's a silly thing to say.

[TAsunder]

The good wife looks terrible despite the heavy PR campaign.

I'll probably give a lot of shows (not including The Good Wife) a chance, but I'm not really optimistic about any of them. The one that seems like it actually has potential is Flash Forward. By potential I mean potential to be ruined by stupid writing.

[lambertman]

Yeah, but presenting three episodes and then moving a series is never a good idea AFAIC. And where do they move it? Up against Grey's Anatomy, CSI and the number one new show from last season, Fringe. They're not giving Community a smooth road to travel.


You do have that backward. "Community" starts at 9:30 against those shows (and with an "Office" lead-in) and then moves up to 8:00 away from them in week 4.

[bicker]

Oy! So confusing that I couldn't keep it straight.

Anyway, that's actually worse, for us, up against super-powerhouse Survivor, veteran hit Bones, and two shows both mentioned (by some) as potentially the biggest new shows of the season: Flash Forward, and The Vampire Diaries.

[tivogurl]

That's a silly thing to say.
Is it? How often does a freshman show have its time and slot change to go up against another network's hit, and become successful? I'd say not very. That's why I find it so mysterious why networks keeping trying it.

[TAsunder]

Is it? How often does a freshman show have its time and slot change to go up against another network's hit, and become successful? I'd say not very. That's why I find it so mysterious why networks keeping trying it.

Didn't Fringe move nights last year? Seems like it did ok...

[DevdogAZ]

Didn't Fringe move nights last year? Seems like it did ok...
Of course it did OK. In the second half of the season they moved it to follow American Idol. A test pattern would get good ratings if it followed AI.

[bicker]

Is it?Yes it is. It's like saying that people who get into car accidents meant to get themselves hurt or killed.

[tivogurl]

Yes it is. It's like saying that people who get into car accidents meant to get themselves hurt or killed.
The difference is that if Fringe gets cancelled because it got crushed in the ratings it won't have been an accident. Fox intentionally put it in the line of fire.

[bicker]

A ridiculous corollary to a ridiculous assertion.

Why can't you just say that you're scared? Or disappointed? Instead of making stuff up like this? Do you have so little respect for your own feelings that you have to fabricate something nefarious about someone else?

[lambertman]

If FOX wanted Fringe to fail, why would they have moved it to after Idol in the first place?
I don't care for the show, but Thurs at 9 actually shows promise for it - up against an aged CSI, two comedies that aren't as popular as I'd like to think they should be, and a female-heavy soap, there's room for FOX to make some noise.

[TIVO_GUY_HERE]

Shows are showing up in my ToDo list. YEaaaaaaa Fall season is finally here.

[BeanMeScot]

The good wife looks terrible despite the heavy PR campaign.


This one looks terrible. Who wants to watch people fight? I got enough of that with Revolutionary Road. I don't need to watch it for an hour every week.

[bicker]

I won't be happy until the 22nd. That's the last day my TiVo will have an (essentially) empty Now Playing List through the end of the year, at least. Until then, we're basically scraping the bottom of the barrel. While there are a few premieres before that, the 20st, itself, I figure we'll have nothing saved up to watch, and the 21st we'll be pretty-much watching Heroes live, because that'll be all that's in our Now Playing List by then.

[Neenahboy]

I'm looking forward to Modern Family even more now that Edward Norton will be guesting during November sweeps (http://ausiellofiles.ew.com/2009/09/09/exclusive-modern-family-adopts-edward-norton).

[marksman]

I know Fox promotes Fringe as the number 1 new show from last season, and someone said it in this thread but that doesn't make any sense. Clearly The Mentalist was much more popular than Fringe.

[bicker]

The two shows share the distinction. Fringe actually beat Mentalist in the prime demographic.

[Neenahboy]

Entertainment Weekly gave some EW.com participants early access to the pilot of Modern Family on ABC, which premieres Wednesday.

I enjoyed it a lot. The writers did an excellent job of crafting the dynamic between the families when they're together, but at the same time they won't have to artificially create group situations (a la Brothers & Sisters) for them all because each family stands well enough on its own. I'm quite looking forward to this, and I urge you guys to check it out.

[DevdogAZ]

Entertainment Weekly gave some EW.com participants early access to the pilot of Modern Family on ABC, which premieres Wednesday.

I enjoyed it a lot. The writers did an excellent job of crafting the dynamic between the families when they're together, but at the same time they won't have to artificially create group situations (a la Brothers & Sisters) for them all because each family stands well enough on its own. I'm quite looking forward to this, and I urge you guys to check it out.
I'm definitely planning to watch, but mostly because of Sofia Vergara, not because the show itself looks all that interesting.