TiVo should make TiVoHD $99 after rebate.

[MediaLivingRoom]

They should offer TiVoHD $99 after rebates. They should bring back this program to get subs. Since they lost about 1 million users.

[ciper]

How about the S2?

[MediaLivingRoom]

How about the S2?

They should drop the S2 all together.


I would like to have a TiVoHD for $99 after rebates and the TiVoHD XL for $399 after rebates.

[ciper]

I agree that the S2DT in its current state should be dropped.
HOWEVER if they didn't intentionally neuter the S2DT to prevent use of digital STB it would still be a good piece of kit.

Has anyone done a "cost to build" analysis of the S2? I've seen it many times for other hardware and based on my understanding of the S2 internals it probably costs less than 100$ to build.

[berkshires]

Why $99?

[MediaLivingRoom]

Why $99?

It's a great price point for people.

[bicker]

I prefer $19.95.

$12.50 is also a nice price.

[SullyND]

Imagine how many units they'd off-load if they paid you $50 for taking it.

[bicker]

Heck, I'd buy a TiVo HD today, if they paid me $50 instead of charging me. While they're at it; perhaps they could pay us for our subscriptions, instead of charging us for our subscriptions. I'd really like that.

[SullyND]

While they're at it; perhaps they could pay us for our subscriptions, instead of charging us for our subscriptions. I'd really like that.

I was thinking they could opt to pick up your mortgage as well.

[magilladke]

I was thinking they could opt to pick up your mortgage as well.

Don't worry ... apparently the president has that covered.

[wannaB]

Maybe, just maybe if we stop paying our TiVo bill the president will pay it for us? Crap, what about the one I have lifetime sub on? I'm such a dummy for always paying my bills!

[berkshires]

I prefer $19.95.

$12.50 is also a nice price.

If it were free, I'd take two.

Maybe, just maybe if we stop paying our TiVo bill the president will pay it for us? Crap, what about the one I have lifetime sub on? I'm such a dummy for always paying my bills!

That's like buying your house or car for cash. What planet are you living on? You've been dragging the economy down for years with that kind of frugality. Shame on you.

[berkshires]

It's a great price point for people.

What would it do for TiVo?

[classicsat]

They should drop the S2 all together.


They cannot drop the Series 2 unless/until they have something ready to replace it for users that cannot get cable.
Read: a DVR that works with a satellite or IPTV STB in SD.

[lew]

They cannot drop the Series 2 unless/until they have something ready to replace it for users that cannot get cable.
Read: a DVR that works with a satellite or IPTV STB in SD.

The TivoHD works with OTA. The series 2 is a poor choice for customers who get satellite.

The TivoHD currently has a list price of $300, is commonly available for $250 and occasionally for $200. Selling the unit for $99 would probably require charging a higher monthly fee. I'm not in favor of that. I guess tivo could follow the cell phone model. Sell the unit for $50, with a two year commitment and a monthly charge of $20. I'm not in favor of that either.

[ZeoTiVo]

the old rebate program ws how TiVo spent iots marketing dollars in the , seems now, mistaken belief that 99$ would be a sweet spot for selling lots of DVRs.

TiVo abondoned that approach and has stated they do not want to 'lose money' anymore on the sale of hardware. No idea if 200$ boxes at Costco or Sears fits that model but in general while sales of something tend to go up with a lower price - there is a point that it does not generate positive revenue and it seems like TiVo is in that position with DVRs. It is that pesky make money off the monthly sub part that has a more dramatic effect on sales than the cost of the hardware itself.

If TiVo could find revenue generation off of features that allowed them to drop the sub price then we would see sales rise at a significant rate

[ZeoTiVo]

Sell the unit for $50, with a two year commitment and a monthly charge of $20. I'm not in favor of that either.
that bundled pricing plan also went over like a lead balloon.

[lew]

that bundled pricing plan also went over like a lead balloon.

I'd like a tivo for free, with no monthly fee and no advertising. Not going to happen. I wouldn't want the kind of increased service fees that would come with highly subsidized hardware. Present pricing is reasonable, for what you get. People looking for "a deal" will generally do better getting a DVR from their service provider.

[jrm01]

The series 2 is a poor choice for customers who get satellite.



So what is a better choice for SD satellite users?

[lew]

So what is a better choice for SD satellite users?

I'd go with a satellite provided DVR (for DISH) but consider getting a used DTivo for DTV. I wouldn't use a regular S2 unit. Lack of dual tuners more then offsets any advantages offered by tivo.

[ZeoTiVo]

I agree that the S2DT in its current state should be dropped.
HOWEVER if they didn't intentionally neuter the S2DT to prevent use of digital STB it would still be a good piece of kit.

Has anyone done a "cost to build" analysis of the S2? I've seen it many times for other hardware and based on my understanding of the S2 internals it probably costs less than 100$ to build.

How pray tell did they neuter a box meant for analog cable?
Also curious as to how you know they intentionally did that.

[mixedday1]

The TivoHD works with OTA. The series 2 is a poor choice for customers who get satellite.

The TivoHD currently has a list price of $300, is commonly available for $250 and occasionally for $200. Selling the unit for $99 would probably require charging a higher monthly fee. I'm not in favor of that. I guess tivo could follow the cell phone model. Sell the unit for $50, with a two year commitment and a monthly charge of $20. I'm not in favor of that either.

Agreed. Think it should be discontinued if it could save TiVo money, and then could focus on marketing and sales of the TiVoHD model.


DirecTV has pretty much gone to the lease model, 18-24 mo. commitment ( a steep $20/mo * # of remaining months for cancellation), and after that their lowest package is like $30 for a bunch of Family christian channels, and $50 for the actual basic package. If one is going to sign their soul to DirecTV for that period, they might as well get the DVR from them.

Dish - commitment, though its easier to have a basic receiver not leased, and take a low-end package, and they have a like a hundred of international and alacarte channels. But with Dish, more issues with the receivers.

Series 2 with analog cable. While the latest Series II model has the dual tuner, like the one I used to have, most cable systems are moving the quality channels off the analog lineup (like TCM, and GSN, and their often is pq issues with the lower level channels (2-6 esp.) still.

I used to use my Series II with a Dish Network receiver, and analog cable, as I needed international channels from Dish. Now Fios offers them. But at the time,, the Dish receiver made the process unnecessarily complicated. Dish receiver getting stuck on channels, Dish receiver going to screensaver mode, needed often to use Dish receiver timers in conjuction with Tivo season passes--too much work. Just a big problem, as Dish probably just wanted customers to go their models. Also my cable system has the broadcast networks on the low numbers, and their would be PQ issues with cable as well.

The TiVoHD permits an analog OTA input. When the analog TV shutdown finishes in June, I just wish TiVo would permit that input in those models as a choice between Video input to Channel 3/4, or OTA digital input, but not just solely digital OTA input as it will likely become. I know of a few Fios/cable customers that just get alacarte international on Dish or DirecTV or FTA as well, that would like to have way to just toggle into that stream. No guide or IR blaster support is needed/necessary, just an analog input from that and manual timers.

What I did with my TiVoHD when I first got it (when I still had cable from Comcast using a cable card, and international channels from Dish...all before I got Fios) was use the Channel 4 output from the sat receiver, to the OTA input, and then the TiVoHD thought it was WNBC 4, and I could tape shows from that Channel 4, or satellite, but it would show NBC show titles. I tape NBC from WCAU 10 so there was now conflicts that way either.

[puckettcg]

I agree with the OP that $99 would be a better pricepoint for the TivoHD. The cable and verizon boxes are starting to catch up on features, and if they every start offering ways to expand capacity, even $99 may be tough. I have an S-3 and HD box with cablecards; but I also have a Verizon DVR, and I got to say MRV on the Verizon DVR rocks.

[lew]

I agree with the OP that $99 would be a better pricepoint for the TivoHD. The cable and verizon boxes are starting to catch up on features, and if they every start offering ways to expand capacity, even $99 may be tough. I have an S-3 and HD box with cablecards; but I also have a Verizon DVR, and I got to say MRV on the Verizon DVR rocks.

Tivo probably can't compete, on price, with a cable/satellite supplied DVR. Those companies have no incremental cost for guide data and can bundle the pricing. Reducing (subsidizing) the price of the DVR means the monthly cost will have to increase.

That said a FiOS DVR, with MRV, costs around $20/month (once any promotional pricing expires). Tivo is competitve. The guide data vendor Verizon uses is not as good (reliable) as the Tribune data used by tivo. Tivo will lose it's biggest advantage once/if Verizon activates the eSata port. Plus VoD means at least some of the shows you'll record with tivo don't have to be recorded with a FiOS DVR.

[kirthew]

Hey there... I am new to the board... and have been a Directv user for the last 4 years... I recently switched to FIOS... and I agree with the original poster... If I could get a TIVO HD for $99... I would be all on board... Right now... I am debating between keeping the FIOS boxes... or maybe going back to Directv...

[bkdtv]

The loss would be too substantial at $99, I think. TiVo is already selling at or below cost at retail.

TiVo could hit a lower price point if they went to a direct model (Tivo.com and Amazon.com), without the large cuts taken by retailers. They would have to weigh the increase in sales at a lower direct price (TiVo.com, Amazon.com) against the the loss in sales without a retail presence.

I think a more realistic goal would be a drop to $199 with a 320GB drive. I still would like to see a 500GB model though, to match the capacity of satellite DVRs and some upcoming true2way DVR products.

[berkshires]

The thing about the rebates is that they were not the cause of the large losses. Rebates only cost money if unit sales are made. It was large marketing/advertising spending in the face of unit sales that did not materialize that were responsible for the big losses.

[ZeoTiVo]

The thing about the rebates is that they were not the cause of the large losses. Rebates only cost money if unit sales are made. It was large marketing/advertising spending in the face of unit sales that did not materialize that were responsible for the big losses.

TiVo wrote off the rebates as marketing costs and that is why they had such large marketing costs in years past

[slowbiscuit]

Tivo probably can't compete, on price, with a cable/satellite supplied DVR. Those companies have no incremental cost for guide data and can bundle the pricing. Reducing (subsidizing) the price of the DVR means the monthly cost will have to increase.

That said a FiOS DVR, with MRV, costs around $20/month (once any promotional pricing expires). Tivo is competitve. The guide data vendor Verizon uses is not as good (reliable) as the Tribune data used by tivo. Tivo will lose it's biggest advantage once/if Verizon activates the eSata port. Plus VoD means at least some of the shows you'll record with tivo don't have to be recorded with a FiOS DVR.
A Tivo HD at $199 plus lifetime at $299 (or $330 on fleabay if it's your first) is VERY competitive with cable rentals over 3 years. Comcast keeps jacking the DVR rental fee, but the cost of a Tivo HD is slowly going down. Right now the Tivo pays for itself after 3 years here in the ATL, and if you want to resell it later you'll probably get back half or more of what you paid.

It's a no-brainer to me now with what they charge to rent a crappy HD DVR, but some folks can't live without OnDemand.

[ciper]

How pray tell did they neuter a box meant for analog cable?
Also curious as to how you know they intentionally did that.

Because they did? I'm not sure how to answer the question. Every SA S2 can control an STB. Every SA S2 except the DT can control an OTA STB. It was intentionally disabled because of a misunderstanding of the ATSC tuner requirement.

[ZeoTiVo]

Because they did? I'm not sure how to answer the question. Every SA S2 can control an STB. Every SA S2 except the DT can control an OTA STB. It was intentionally disabled because of a misunderstanding of the ATSC tuner requirement.

or they knew the S3 was coming along and would rather people use that for OTA - but ok then - TiVo did in fact leave OTA adapter control off the DT to ensure they were in compliance.

[aadam101]

Whatever happened to the ads that you saw during the FF? I remember seeing exactly one and never saw anymore. It was for the terrible Nicole Kidman movie The Interpreter. Why not offer an ad supported unit with a low monthly fee and a higher fee for those with no ads?

[Joe01880]

They should offer TiVoHD $99 after rebates. They should bring back this program to get subs. Since they lost about 1 million users.

If TiVo were free or dirt cheap and the sub was free or close to it TiVo quality and reliablilty would reach that of cable companies. I for one dont mind paying a little extra for quality of equipment and a reliable guide.

[nrc]

Not likely any time soon. You can't cut prices below cost and then make it up on volume.

[samo]

You can't cut prices below cost and then make it up on volume.
TiVo has tried every possible variation of this approach already and has proven that this statement is correct. :)

[magnus]

I've been arguing that one for a while now. I think this would really catch on and get Tivo into every household.

Free Ad supported Tivo boxes, all the ads you could possibly want, and part of the TOS is opt-in is not optional.

They could offer this on the S1/S2 boxes and get more life out of them instead of them going to the dump.

Whatever happened to the ads that you saw during the FF? I remember seeing exactly one and never saw anymore. It was for the terrible Nicole Kidman movie The Interpreter. Why not offer an ad supported unit with a low monthly fee and a higher fee for those with no ads?

[classicsat]

How pray tell did they neuter a box meant for analog cable?
Also curious as to how you know they intentionally did that.
They "Neutered" its ability to receive antenna, in that they never wrote it in the software to begin with, or have a masking code that masks antenna as the options in setup, if the software is running on a 542 or 649 unit. That was to meet FCC regs requiring them to include a digital tuner if they include an OTA capable analog tuner. By including a cable only analog tuner, they skirt the edge of those rules and need not include a digital tuner. Adding antenna box support may break them.

As said, the lack of antenna support at all in the Series 2 DT was very intentional.

[HiDefGator]

No matter how you price it the average consumer today doesn't want to research dvrs, go to Best Buy and pay for a dvr and then have to self install it. Pricing is only one of the things hurting sales. It's hard to compete with the lack of effort it takes to call your cable company and ask them to come upgrade your current box to a dvr. Especially if the install is free and they show you how to use it at the same time.

[DrewTivo]

I guess tivo could follow the cell phone model. Sell the unit for $50, with a two year commitment and a monthly charge of $20. I'm not in favor of that either.

They could, and we'd be back the the suckiness of long-term subscribers subsidizing new ones through higher fees, even though the LT folks don't keep getting new boxes.

Would I like stuff cheaper? Of course! But I'd rather keep the pricing structure where it is, which seems to be a decent balance of paying for what you get when you get it (i.e., machines at fair price, subs at fair price; no subsidy from one to the other).

[classicsat]

They tried the cell phone model a couple years ago. They quit that, either because there were no takers, or a lash back.

[lew]

The cell phone model would result in a monthly cost that's not competitive with cable supplied DVRs.

Even refurbished TivoHDs cost around $199, $99 is not a realistic (current) price point.

[nrc]

No matter how you price it the average consumer today doesn't want to research dvrs, go to Best Buy and pay for a dvr and then have to self install it. Pricing is only one of the things hurting sales. It's hard to compete with the lack of effort it takes to call your cable company and ask them to come upgrade your current box to a dvr. Especially if the install is free and they show you how to use it at the same time.

That's true. A Forrester report came out recently citing convenience as one of the main predictors of success for a gadget. They give TiVo as an example of a product that has not reached its potential because the competition is much more convenient and the Kindle as a "unlikely success" because of its convenience.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-10160891-92.html

[berkshires]

So why do people shop at Best Buy? When has it ever been convenient to arrange something with your cable provider and deal with the install?

I pre-ordered a Kindle 2. Seems like a device that gets you your reading material awfully conveniently.

[lew]

So why do people shop at Best Buy? When has it ever been convenient to arrange something with your cable provider and deal with the install?



Many cable systems are moving many (most?) of their stations to the digital tier. TivoHD requires cable cards for digital service. Most cable systems are, currently, requiring a "truck roll" for cable card installation. A customer has to buy tivo, activate it with tivo then wait for a cable technician. One phone call to the cable company and everything is good to go. Much better shot of being able to pick up a cable DVR and doing a self install then being allowed to do a self install with cable cards.

Posters on TCF appreciate the extra features and reliability offered by tivo. That doesn't change the fact it's a lot easier, and generally less expensive, to get a cable company DVR.

[M3 Adjuster]

A Tivo HD at $199 plus lifetime at $299 (or $330 on fleabay if it's your first) is VERY competitive with cable rentals over 3 years. Comcast keeps jacking the DVR rental fee, but the cost of a Tivo HD is slowly going down. Right now the Tivo pays for itself after 3 years here in the ATL, and if you want to resell it later you'll probably get back half or more of what you paid.

It's a no-brainer to me now with what they charge to rent a crappy HD DVR, but some folks can't live without OnDemand.


Agree here... paying Verizon $15-20 bucks a month for a crappy DVR is crazy. I had Directv and just switched to Fios and got a Tivo HD for $199 and my lifetime service at $329 by checking threads here. A multi-room DVR runs $20 with Verizon.... so in 20 months I'll be ahead.... and happier every day. Even just comparing to the standard DVR from Verizon at $14.95 a month, the break even point is 3 years. Excellent point about the resale value also being there on a Lifetime unit.

[berkshires]

When I call the cable co, they send a guy over on a day of my choosing and I hang around several hours first waiting, then watching, then hand holding, then tipping, then griping about how I have to call the carpet cleaners to get the snow/ice/mud out.

When I order a TiVo, FedEx delivers it promptly inside my garage. I bring it upstairs, open it any time I want, plug it in in a few minutes, running GS while doing ten other things, register it with Netflix and start watching OTA, analog cable and 12,000+ other really good things.

Then I think...gosh I wish I didn't have to call the cable co to gets those CARDs.

[lew]

Agree here... paying Verizon $15-20 bucks a month for a crappy DVR is crazy. I had Directv and just switched to Fios and got a Tivo HD for $199 and my lifetime service at $329 by checking threads here. A multi-room DVR runs $20 with Verizon.... so in 20 months I'll be ahead.... and happier every day. Even just comparing to the standard DVR from Verizon at $14.95 a month, the break even point is 3 years. Excellent point about the resale value also being there on a Lifetime unit.

A FiOS multi-room DVR will stream to non-DVR STB. You really can't compare a multi-room DVR with one tivo. FiOS has a variety of promotions available.

Your numbers don't include cable card rental fees. Breakeven becomes 4 years. You didn't include any factor for use of money. Assume the customer puts the cost of tivo and LS on a credit card and will pay down $12/month (difference between FiOS DVR and cable card fee). Add the truck roll fee for cable card installation if the customer isn't a new FiOS subscriber. A tivo customer (out of warranty) pays for repairs, Verizon will repair the box.

I have a FiOS DVR and a TivoHD. I think tivo is worth the extra money. The Tribune guide data tivo uses is better then the vendor Verizon is using.

That said the FiOS DVR is less expensive, with any legitimate analysis.

[bill875]

When I call the cable co, they send a guy over on a day of my choosing and I hang around several hours first waiting, then watching, then hand holding, then tipping, then griping about how I have to call the carpet cleaners to get the snow/ice/mud out.
You tip the cable company guy? May I ask why? I've never given it a thought as I usually can't wait for the guy to leave.

[mixedday1]

A FiOS multi-room DVR will stream to non-DVR STB. You really can't compare a multi-room DVR with one tivo. FiOS has a variety of promotions available.

Your numbers don't include cable card rental fees. Breakeven becomes 4 years. You didn't include any factor for use of money. Assume the customer puts the cost of tivo and LS on a credit card and will pay down $12/month (difference between FiOS DVR and cable card fee). Add the truck roll fee for cable card installation if the customer isn't a new FiOS subscriber. A tivo customer (out of warranty) pays for repairs, Verizon will repair the box.

I have a FiOS DVR and a TivoHD. I think tivo is worth the extra money. The Tribune guide data tivo uses is better then the vendor Verizon is using.

That said the FiOS DVR is less expensive, with any legitimate analysis.

I like my TiVo but I don't see TiVo (corporate) having a much viable business model anymore (but they have to continue status quo and keep R&D going).

They have to compete against cable & sat DVRs, even if inferior that are subsidized, and the networks themselves now putting up shows online, devaluing the need for a DVR in the first place. I know Dish has put out some strong DVRs now, as they decided technology can be one thing to help distinguish themselves (cable/Fios has 3-way bundling), and competing on channels is a wash (though Dish has locked in a lot of international channels)

Another thing is the wireless adapter. I got mine free directly from Tivo. But before I did, I actually bought it from Best Buy. It was $70. Saw it on sale at Circuit City and then Best Buy price matched it. Then I returned it after calling TiVo, after I saw TiVo was offering it free, and they sent it free since I'm a long time customer.

Of course now, Circuit City won't be longer around and Best Buy will be unlikely to ever put the Tivo compatible adapter on sale, as its the markup of these accessories is where they make money. Added expense and just another thing for the customer to do before getting the TiVo up and running.

[berkshires]

You tip the cable company guy? May I ask why? I've never given it a thought as I usually can't wait for the guy to leave.

5+ yrs in the Forum and all it took was the mention of tipping to get you to make your first post. :D

[bkdtv]

Of course now, Circuit City won't be longer around and Best Buy will be unlikely to ever put the Tivo compatible adapter on sale, as its the markup of these accessories is where they make money. Added expense and just another thing for the customer to do before getting the TiVo up and running.Or you could buy it for $35 shipped from Amazon.

There's no need to buy accessories and such from Best Buy and other B&M stores, when you can get the same products for 20-40% less from Amazon.com with no tax, no gas, and free shipping.

[HiDefGator]

When I call the cable co, they send a guy over on a day of my choosing and I hang around several hours first waiting, then watching, then hand holding, then tipping, then griping about how I have to call the carpet cleaners to get the snow/ice/mud out.

When I order a TiVo, FedEx delivers it promptly inside my garage. I bring it upstairs, open it any time I want, plug it in in a few minutes, running GS while doing ten other things, register it with Netflix and start watching OTA, analog cable and 12,000+ other really good things.

Then I think...gosh I wish I didn't have to call the cable co to gets those CARDs.

But if you had never owned a DVR and knew virtually nothing about them, how much time would you have needed to spend before deciding to purchase that new Tivo with your own cash as your first DVR? Leasing your first one requires less upfront investment of time and money.

[Dan203]

The TiVo HD is almost 2 years old now. In those two years the price to make a TiVo HD has almost certainly dropped, yet the price of the box itself is still exactly the same as the day it was released.

If TiVo doesn't want to drop the price to account for the reduced production costs then I think, at the very least, it's time for a storage upgrade. You can buy a 1.5TB hard drive these days for ~$100. Having a $300 HD recording device with a measly 160GB hard drive is pretty pathetic. I think the standard TiVo HD should get a storage boost to at least 300GB if they plan to remain at the current price point.

I also think that charging a $300 premium for the XL is a mistake. Given the current prices of hard drives the XL should be $399 tops. Although they could be keeping the price of the XL artificially high to appease their partnership with WD. I mean who would drop $150 on a 500GB DVR expander if they could upgrade to a much bigger TiVo from the start for less money?

Dan

[bicker]

Figure that the TiVo HD went from big a big money loser, at this price-point, to being (hopefully) a moderate money-maker, at this price-point: If you reduce your price the moment you begin making profit, then you never make profit. http://www.wdwinfo.com/images/smilies/teacher.gif

[bgc]

I've got an S2DT hooked up to my std. def. TV (only tv I have) and don't plan on getting rid of it until it dies. There are plenty of people in the same boat.

What Tivo really needs is an HD Tivo that can control a digital(HD) cable box and can tune in the HD channels that are broadcast in the clear over the basic cable. The cable cards seem to be all kinds of trouble and the fact that the cable cos. charge for installing the stupid things really stinks. Charging seems to go against the spirit of the FCC rules requiring them.

BGC

[samo]

The TiVo HD is almost 2 years old now. In those two years the price to make a TiVo HD has almost certainly dropped, yet the price of the box itself is still exactly the same as the day it was released.



That assumes that TiVo ordered new units besides initial production run. Smallest production runs are typically 100K to 200K units. At the rate TiVo HD is selling, I'm not sure that they sold out first production run yet.

[Dan203]

Figure that the TiVo HD went from big a big money loser, at this price-point, to being (hopefully) a moderate money-maker, at this price-point: If you reduce your price the moment you begin making profit, then you never make profit. http://www.wdwinfo.com/images/smilies/teacher.gif

I don't think TiVo has ever lost money on the TiVo HD. In fact I'm pretty sure they said that they were just about breaking even on the TiVo HD when it was first release.

Plus I'm not suggesting that they drop the price, just that they increase storage to get the product more inline with current technology. Heck if you look at NewEgg.com you can get a 250GB hard drive for the exact same price as a 250GB hard drive.

That being said, one thing I didn't consider was the CableCARD certification process. I'm pretty sure that Cable Labs requires recertification even if something as small as the hard drive size changes. So perhaps the cost of recertification is what's actually holding them back and not the cost of the parts.

Dan

[matt_o_70]

I see plenty of opportunity for various products and different upfront and subscriptions costs with the existing TivoHD box. I'd like to see some creative marketing to get the box into as many houses as possible. I don't know anyone who has seen my Tivo in action who didn't take a likeing to it. It's just that the majority of consumers are not willing to pay upfront for the box at current costs

consider that with the DTV transition there is a large number of people who are needing something to tune DTV. With the same hardware that TivoHD already has they could offer a low cost version of the box that could do dual tuner and live buffer or some simple version of the existing features. They could offer DD sound wher the coupon converter boxes don't. Tivo could take advantage of this transition.

Tivo could then charge additional levels of service to eventually get to the full features and eventually recover any price difference. I have bought many more modern software applications after using them as shareware and seeing their worth for myself. If you don't pay upfront then you have to pay smaller increments to get to full functionality but Tivo would still be able to recover costs in the long run.

This would be a DTV converter that would not have to end up in the landfill after the consumer later bought a HDTV. It would still be a fully functional HDPVR and can accomodate cable cards, and all the other web features etc. The Switch to HDTV is a simple connection of the correct cables.

I think that many people could see the benefit of the monthly subscription cost of the TivoHD over the cable company box if the purchase upfront was closer to $99. Exposure to all the additional functionality and web features are a fairly compelling getting this exposed to the masses is essential for growth.

If Tivo can keep working to add online content and home networking and home file sharing are essential. Imagine if Hulu, itunes etc. and other web services were supported Tivo could be a possiblity for those consumers who want a form of alacart programming.

Consumers need to see it to be compelled and it's alot easier to get the $99 box approved by the wife (or come home with the unauthorized $99 box). My wife like many others fully supports having the Tivo but this is only after seeing what it could do and coming to the conclusion for herself.

[MediaLivingRoom]

How can Dell, HP and Asus sell a fully functional 9 inch laptop with linux for about $250and we can't get a TiVo HD at $99 after rebates.


1. It's a 18 month old
2. Too many ads, so they do have some revenue from someone...
3. Partners should help in shared revenue for TiVo to defray some cost.


Dude (tivo), you are losing market share for your partners like Netflix, Amazon, alike. They want more TiVo boxes to sell content.

Side note: (QAM remapping support would be good to add as well)

[bicker]

I don't think TiVo has ever lost money on the TiVo HD.I'd love to see the reports stating that.

[berkshires]

I don't think TiVo has ever lost money on the TiVo HD. In fact I'm pretty sure they said that they were just about breaking even on the TiVo HD when it was first release.

Plus I'm not suggesting that they drop the price, just that they increase storage to get the product more inline with current technology.

That being said, one thing I didn't consider was the CableCARD certification process. I'm pretty sure that Cable Labs requires recertification even if something as small as the hard drive size changes. So perhaps the cost of recertification is what's actually holding them back and not the cost of the parts.

Dan

Your points here and above are good ones. TiVoHD was largely a break-even on price vs. cost of goods at launch. Samo's comment about production runs is interesting. Would like to know more. Certainly TiVo took a massive write-down a few qtrs ago on S2 inventory stemming from low sales after larger ordering for expected sales.

So TiVo might have HDs on the books at original production cost and be unwilling to cut prices with the market. Certainly it can be difficult for me to find an HD to buy for less than I paid in Oct 07 at amazon (about $238).

Also, if the HDs are already made, swapping larger HDs isn't all that easy, right? Is it easier than letting sales lag?

You have to ask the question, 'does TiVo really care about the SA business?' TiVo has shown no evidence for a long time that they are particularly interested in boosting that business. They behave more like their strategy is to keep it going at a minimal level while trying to find something else to make money on.

[lew]

The TiVo HD is almost 2 years old now. In those two years the price to make a TiVo HD has almost certainly dropped, yet the price of the box itself is still exactly the same as the day it was released.



Not sure how much the cost has gone down. Tivo uses a DVR specific chipset. I don't know if that cost has gone down. Shipping costs may have gone up enough to offset any reductions.

That assumes that TiVo ordered new units besides initial production run. Smallest production runs are typically 100K to 200K units. At the rate TiVo HD is selling, I'm not sure that they sold out first production run yet.

Great point. The recent deals at Sears and 6th Avenue may be an attempt to dump some inventory. Conversely if tivo did a small production run it's unlikely the second production run cost much less then the second.

How can Dell, HP and Asus sell a fully functional 9 inch laptop with linux for about $250and we can't get a TiVo HD at $99 after rebates.




What does one have to do with the other. The number of customers for a laptap far exceeds the number of customers for a tivo. Fixed costs/R&D get spread over a lot more units. Shipping costs for a tivo are a lot more expensive then shipping a laptop.

[bkdtv]

I don't think TiVo has ever lost money on the TiVo HD. In fact I'm pretty sure they said that they were just about breaking even on the TiVo HD when it was first release.
I'd love to see the reports stating that.TiVo statements have always implied that the company was making money on the unit at TiVo.com and losing money at retail, but was breaking even or close to breaking even overall.

TiVo said at release that they were not subsidizing the TivoHD to the same extent as some past products. As far as I am aware, TiVo has never said it was making money on the sale, without qualifying the statement with "online" or "at our web site" -- and all direct sales require that a subscription be purchased at the same time.

Back when the TivoHD was released, a Best Buy employee indicated that their computer listed that retailer's cost at $208. If Best Buy was paying $208, and their distributor was paying even less, then I can't see how TiVo was making money through retail channels.

How can Dell, HP and Asus sell a fully functional 9 inch laptop with linux for about $250and we can't get a TiVo HD at $99 after rebates.Direct sales, through a company web site, avoid the added costs associated with retail. The price required to make a profit (or break even) with direct sales is very different from the price required to do the same at retail.

[classicsat]

Y
Also, if the HDs are already made, swapping larger HDs isn't all that easy, right? Is it easier than letting sales lag?

Right, it is not that easy.

What they could do is include a coupon entitling one to a discount on the DVR Expander. It likely could be an online/printable coupon you get with activation. An online coupon is more practical than opening all the boxes to insert a paper, and more secure than sticking it on the box.

As for other things:
Make a TiVo HD-Lite. The hardware will be identical to the existing TiVo HD, including the 160GB drive. The difference will be in software. Its software will allow certain features be disabled or enabled by service keys. This would be HD output limited to 480p, digital audio limited to PCM, no MPEG4, and no "Crestron" interface. The unit would sell for and MSRP of $99, and you could enable HD features for another one time $99 fee.
When it comes time to quit making the Series 2 platform, they could add the SD A/V inputs and box control to that TiVo HD platform, and sell for another $50 on that.

The normal TiVo HD (called the TiVo HD Plus) will be upgraded to a 320GB HDD, have all the HD features enabled, and sell for an MSRP of $249.

[berkshires]

What size drive today would cost the same as the 160 TiVo started with back then?

400, 500?


Also, another problem with an already manufactured unit is you are junking a drive already paid for in addition to the bigger replacement drive. Newly made units would not have that problem.

[bkdtv]

What size drive today would cost the same as the 160 TiVo started with back then?

400, 500?500GB.

[lew]

The Tivo HD-Lite would increase tivo's cost. The hardware cost would be the same but tivo would have to program, and support a different software version. Hackers may release DIY methods for upgrading.

I guess tivo could release an OTA only unit. That would at least save the hardware cost, and licensing fees for cable cards. I suspect tivo wouldn't sell enough additional units to justify the added expense.

I



Make a TiVo HD-Lite. The hardware will be identical to the existing TiVo HD, including the 160GB drive. The difference will be in software. Its software will allow certain features be disabled or enabled by service keys. This would be HD output limited to 480p, digital audio limited to PCM, no MPEG4, and no "Crestron" interface. The unit would sell for and MSRP of $99, and you could enable HD features for another one time $99 fee.
When it comes time to quit making the Series 2 platform, they could add the SD A/V inputs and box control to that TiVo HD platform, and sell for another $50 on that.

The normal TiVo HD (called the TiVo HD Plus) will be upgraded to a 320GB HDD, have all the HD features enabled, and sell for an MSRP of $249.

[classicsat]

It would cost them to redevelop the hardware platform, although it could use it a bit. It would be cheaper to somehow use the existing platform. The connectors are only a marginal cost.

DirecTV is issuing HD boxes with HD disabled/enabled by a service tier, as an SD bos, and offering to upgrade to HD for a fee. I think that would work for TiVo too.

[Dan203]

If Samo's theory is correct and TiVo still has units in inventory from the initial production run then that could explain why they haven't lowered the price to match current hardware costs. However if that is the case then someone made a really bad decision when they purchased enough units to maintain inventory for 18+ months. Then again maybe they just assumed that the cheaper HD platform would draw in more buyers then it did.

Dan

[berkshires]

If Samo's theory is correct and TiVo still has units in inventory from the initial production run then that could explain why they haven't lowered the price to match current hardware costs. However if that is the case then someone made a really bad decision when they purchased enough units to maintain inventory for 18+ months. Then again maybe they just assumed that the cheaper HD platform would draw in more buyers then it did.

Dan

Ah, the best laid plans of mice and men. Would it be any surprise if the subscriber numbers the last few qtrs have been less than hoped?

[bicker]

Multiple production runs incur multiple ramp-up costs. Since TiVo doesn't likely have a manufacturing line running continually, producing TiVo HDs, fulfilling their responsibilities would necessarily would have required keeping the number of manufacturing runs as low in number as possible.

So where does that lead us: Some people want to think that TiVo is making a lot of money on each box, now. And they're basing arguments about TiVo pricing on extensions of logic that are built on the assumption that that suspicion/desire is true. Arguments, where the premises aren't proven... there is a word for that... this is a Base Assertion Fallacy, right? ... or is this simply a case of the Hasty Generalization Fallacy?

Who has the best information regarding the premise of the argument being put forward? (Answer: TiVo.) What does their actions indicate about the reality of that information? (Answer: That they're not making so much profit on each box that lowering the price is warranted on that account.) It isn't a proof, but it is the best guess we can make based on information that is publicly available.