What's the long term impact of the strike (What shows are vunerable?)

[bqmeister]

What I'm referring to -

2 1/2 Men for example. Jake is growing. If the strike lasts a LONG time, he may be off to college and won't have time to film.

What about some *stars* on certain shows? Hayden Panierette is growing up. She's getting a bit of star power. It won't be good for her career to sit idle a long time. If she makes a jump to movies and isn't available when (IF) production of heroes starts up again how will that affect heroes?

Also how does the strike affect actors contracts?

The folks on lost presumably have a contract through 2010, when lost is scheduled to end.

If the strike doesn't last much longer, they could do the final 40 episodes (48 minus the 8 getting ready to be shown starting tonight) over 2 years and still be done by 2010, but if it goes on awhile, that may be impossible. The actors could demand much bigger contracts to finish the remaining episodes. That could potentially kill lost.

This is all not to mention viewers abandoning some of their favorite shows out of boredom.

Which shows do you think are most vulnerable if the strike persists?

[That Don Guy]

What I'm referring to -

2 1/2 Men for example. Jake is growing. If the strike lasts a LONG time, he may be off to college and won't have time to film.
Easy solution: replace the actor who plays Jake. It wouldn't be the first time (on Maude, they had to replace the actor who played Carol's daughter with someone who looked nothing like him because the first actor was taller than just about everyone else on the show, which made it hard for viewers to believe the character was around 15, not to mention any number of shows (starting with I Love Lucy) where really young kids suddenly skip a few years).

What about some *stars* on certain shows? Hayden Panierette is growing up. She's getting a bit of star power. It won't be good for her career to sit idle a long time. If she makes a jump to movies and isn't available when (IF) production of heroes starts up again how will that affect heroes?
Remember, the WGA strike applies to movies, too. Just about all of the pre-strike scripts are already in some stage of production.

Also how does the strike affect actors contracts?
The WGA strike? It doesn't, as far as I know.
However, SAG contracts are up sometime around June or July, and there's talk that they may strike over the same things that the writers want. (Then again, the directors' guild managed to cut a deal with the producers, so who knows what's going to happen there.)

Which shows do you think are most vulnerable if the strike persists?
Well, the first ones vulnerable to not having episodes available for next season will be Fox's animated shows. Because of the nature of animtion, the writing process has to start in February in order for anything to be completed by mid-September. (When The Simpsons delayed the start of production because the actors wanted more money, one of the producers said that if they didn't start recording voices (one of the first things done after the script is written) by the end of March, that year's Halloween special would not be ready by early November.)

-- Don

[bqmeister]

By vulnerable, I mean, vulnerable to never coming back.

[Steveknj]

By vulnerable, I mean, vulnerable to never coming back.

Obviously any show with ratings that put them on the fence. A show like Chuck for example.

I think it also depends on what you define as "A LONG TIME" If the strike settles say by NEXT Jan, then I can most of the popular shows coming back. If it lasts beyond that, I would say ANY show is vulnerable for the reasons you have mentioned.

My fear is, that even if the strike is settled soon, we are going to see a glut of reality/unscripted shows next fall regardless. I think producers and network execs will be less likely to sink lots of money into scripted shows which have a higher risk AND they may have to shell out more to the writers.

[bicker]

I believe you're mistaken about Chuck. Given that there won't be a pilot season, and assuming the strike is settled before summer, Chuck is almost surely safe.

I believe the new shows (that I have watched) that are most likely to be canceled despite the strike are Journeyman, Life is Wild, Bionic Woman, Dirty Sexy Money, Big Shots, and Moonlight. (Of the shows I haven't watched, I believe Nashville, K-ville and Viva Laughlin are gone, but I'm not as sure about those.)

[TAsunder]

Moonlight is doing well enough... is it expensive to make? I don't see why it would be canceled.

[Rob Helmerichs]

I believe you're mistaken about Chuck. Given that there won't be a pilot season, and assuming the strike is settled before summer, Chuck is almost surely safe.
Yes, at this point any show is safer than it would normally be, simply because the networks are going to need to fill their schedules in the fall and it's looking like they won't have ANY new shows to do it with.

The Journeyman guy said a while back that the strike was actually improving the odds of Journeyman coming back from zero to slightly more than zero for that exact reason--they might actually bring back shows that they have already written off just to fill schedule.

The down side for the networks, of course, is that there is no chance of a new hit next season (unless the strike gets settled, like, NOW).

[bicker]

Moonlight is doing well enough... is it expensive to make? I don't see why it would be canceled.Yeah, my list was in order of likelihood of renewal, from low to high, so of that list, Moonlight is the most likely to be renewed IMHO.

[LoadStar]

The WGA strike? It doesn't, as far as I know.
However, SAG contracts are up sometime around June or July, and there's talk that they may strike over the same things that the writers want. (Then again, the directors' guild managed to cut a deal with the producers, so who knows what's going to happen there.)

It's entirely possible for the studios to cite "force majeure" and nullify actors contracts. I'd even suggest that it's possible that some less prominent actors have already been released from their contract through force majeure.

Unfortunately for the studios, force majeure basically would turn the actor into a free agent - they're allowed to do anything, they're no longer held in "first position" on the picture they were working on. This isn't a problem with actors that aren't highly sought after, but releasing headliners would just cost the studio more to try and get them back after the strike.

[vman]

A few weeks ago, there was a story by the Washington Post TV column writer that mentioned the strike has almost certainly sealed the fate of Friday Night Lights, and that it will not return. I noticed it because I like the show, but the article did not elaborate on the reasoning behind this statement.

[Stone1717]

A few weeks ago, there was a story by the Washington Post TV column writer that mentioned the strike has almost certainly sealed the fate of Friday Night Lights, and that it will not return. I noticed it because I like the show, but the article did not elaborate on the reasoning behind this statement.

And here's an article that argues the strike is actually helping FNL:

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117977394.html?categoryid=2554&cs=1

So who knows what to believe :)

[dimented]

A few weeks ago, there was a story by the Washington Post TV column writer that mentioned the strike has almost certainly sealed the fate of Friday Night Lights, and that it will not return. I noticed it because I like the show, but the article did not elaborate on the reasoning behind this statement.

I don't see how anything like that could be predicted with accuracy yet. Until the writers come back everything is up in the air. Period.

[Sadara]

I don't see how anything like that could be predicted with accuracy yet. Until the writers come back everything is up in the air. Period.

I completely agree. I've read articles that Journeyman is completely dead with no hope, to articles that it will have a chance of another season. It's impossible to predict.

[bicker]

There is no way to predict anything with complete accuracy. It wouldn't be a prediction if you could predict it with complete accuracy. :) I think, though, that we can start presuming things with upwards of 35%-45% assurance, especially with provisos such as "assuming the strike is settled before summer".

[Bob_Newhart]

Also, I would be concerned about Bart and Lisa getting noticeably older during this strike.