S3 upgrade math

[rmassey]

OK, I tire of paying big monthly fees to D* for content I don't watch. I only hang on because I have an HR10-250 to record HD OTA. So I am looking to pull the trigger on an S3 for HD OTA only and canceling D* service. The $600 S3 price is holding me back, but here's the real math.

Current D* setup/fees
- 1 HR10-250 + 1 HDVR2
- $59/mo (TC w/locals + DVR + Mirror, no HD pkg)
- $2124 for 36 months of service

S3
- $600 for S3
- $300 for 3 years of service
- $900 for 36 months of service ($25/mo)

I could also prob sell off the HR10 for $300-ish on ebay and lower the S3 upgrade price with the sale.

I don't care about loosing D* content, I don't watch it
I don't care about loosing the SD tivo, 1 S3 with dual tuners is fine.
I won't use the S3 with cable, thus adding monthly costs and SVD is not a concern for me.
A HTPC with single tuner and messing with Windows is not something I'm interested in. I prefer a CE device with dual tuners and easy use.

I'm still not crazy about the $600 price of the S3. I was hopeful when Tivo offered the come back offer of $499, but that's gone (for now). Personally, I'd like to see the S3 drop well below $500, say $399 for me to fell comfortable with an S3 purchase.

Any other advise? Did I miss anything in my evaluation/consideration?

[Tim N.]

Your math makes good sense. Are you sure you don't watch any sports from FSN or ESPN? If not, then go get a decent antrennae for OTA. Wiinegard's "Square Shooter" looks good and delivers great reception.

[dagap]

His existing HR10-250 OTA antenna will work fine with the S3.

Useful threads:

Thinking about going OTA only:
http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?t=329512

How is the S3 for strictly OTA?
http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?t=317058

[LifeIsABeach]

TiVo has announced they are working on a lower-cost S3. No ETA for it or word on features so I am not sure if this info is of any help to you.

[rmassey]

I watch Zero/nada/zip sports, so there's no chance that I will miss the sport nets.

Yes, I already have a good antenna (DB4 from antenna's Direct) and it gives me good solid signals. I also use a mast mount pre-amp. My OTA signals are in high 80s to mid 90s which works with the HR10 tuners. I would only guess that the S3 tuner is better.

Thanks for the links, I'll check them out.

A possible lower cost S3 is what holds me back. I'd hate to buy an S3 now and then wham, a cheaper one comes out that meets my needs. I'd love to see and an OTA only dual tuner S3, but that will prob never happen. Seems like Tivo wants/needs to cozy up to Cable to survive.

[ChuckyBox]

A possible lower cost S3 is what holds me back. I'd hate to buy an S3 now and then wham, a cheaper one comes out that meets my needs.
Given that you'll be saving about $50/month in service fees, if you go with your plan, it is very unlikely that it will pay off for you to wait for either a price reduction or a new box.

[rmassey]

Given that you'll be saving about $50/month in service fees, if you go with your plan, it is very unlikely that it will pay off for you to wait for either a price reduction or a new box.

Yeah, I know. In 10-12 months the S3 is paid for my no more Sat bill. that's why I did the little math exercise above. $600 tells me to wait, $59/mo tells me to just do it.

[samo]

You may want to call DirecTV and ask them if you can keep your HR10-250 active for some small fee (like DVR fee plus local only). I know that with Dish you can pay $5 access fee and only have locals for something like $6 a months. I'm not sure if DirecTV has something similar or not.
If you can do it for under $20/month, then you can just wait for S4 or price of S3 to come down.

[aaronwt]

The cheapest would be around $36. You still need to pay a DVR fee.
You get the family programming for $30 and the DVr feed is $6 plus taxes. that is the cheapest price I could get plus I also pay the $10 HD access fee.

[rmassey]

Yeah, I'd rather just break ties with D* no matter what kind of deal they offer me. I don't watch their programming and don't like their business model any more. Even at $40/mo for D*, I'd rather go OTA HD on and S3 and be done with them. It's just hard to cough up $800-900 up front for an S3 + 3 years pre paid, but I know I need to do it.

So is the TC store the best price for S3s these days. I wil prob wait it out closer to the fall season and maybe just suspend my D* account for the summer until I cancel it for good.

[Stanley Rohner]

It doesn't seem like your upgrade math includes the price of cabletv service and extra fees.

You list the DIRECTV Total choice package + locals + DVR + Mirror no HD package for $59/month, but you forget to list cable tv service cost, 2 cable card rentals, cable tv taxes and fees in your S3 upgrade math.

[GoHokies!]

It doesn't seem like your upgrade math includes the price of cabletv service and extra fees.

You list the DIRECTV Total choice package + locals + DVR + Mirror no HD package for $59/month, but you forget to list cable tv service cost, 2 cable card rentals, cable tv taxes and fees in your S3 upgrade math.
Your comment doesn't seem to take into account that he repeatedly states that he wants to record HD OTA with his new S3.

[rmassey]

It doesn't seem like your upgrade math includes the price of cabletv service and extra fees.

You list the DIRECTV Total choice package + locals + DVR + Mirror no HD package for $59/month, but you forget to list cable tv service cost, 2 cable card rentals, cable tv taxes and fees in your S3 upgrade math.

From my OP: "I won't use the S3 with cable, thus adding monthly costs"

I know it's not an apples/apples comparison. I am just looking to scale down and considering my current costs to my future S3 costs.

IMO Comcast are vultures and as fee hungry as D* and E*. I'd rather not do business with any content provider. I am willing to pay for a Tivo sub, as this is a service I value.

[fareal]

I recently quit TWC (saving around $50 per month now) and went OTA only with the S3 when it was $499. But even at $499 in California with tax on the full retail price it was almost $600. Is it Amazon that has the S3 for the best price right now? Free shipping and no tax isn't it?

[davecramer74]

costco has it for 599. But if your getting no tax and free shipping, amazon beats it. I think its 604 on amazon.

[Stanley Rohner]

Really ?

Spending all that money for a DVR that will record OTA HD, digital cable channels and HD digital cable channels just to record OTA HD seems kinda nuts to me. I'd wait for TiVo to start selling an HD OTA only DVR.

[fareal]

Really ?

Spending all that money for a DVR that will record OTA HD, digital cable channels and HD digital cable channels just to record OTA HD seems kinda nuts to me. I'd wait for TiVo to start selling an HD OTA only DVR.

No telling when or even if TiVo will sell an OTA only DVR.

OTA HD is great. Even with TWC's channel lineup at least 90% of what I recorded was broadcast for free OTA anyway. And they say OTA HD frequently looks better than other forms of HD because the cable or sat provider usually compresses the signal. So being that in about 10 months the TiVo S3 will pay for itself (since I'm saving around $50 in cable bills), it was a pretty easy decision for me. Its only been a few weeks, but no regrets yet.

[GoHokies!]

Really ?

Spending all that money for a DVR that will record OTA HD, digital cable channels and HD digital cable channels just to record OTA HD seems kinda nuts to me. I'd wait for TiVo to start selling an HD OTA only DVR.Yeah, because that's a DVR that will really fly off of the shelves!

I think that 80-90 percent of the HD that I record is from the major broadcast networks - the only thing that I really don't is sports on ESPN, so I wouldn't buy a DVR that couldn't let me get ESPN-HD.

But, if you're not a sports fan S3+OTA is good to go. There just aren't enough people out there to make it a viable market.

[rmassey]

I'd be surprised if Tivo ever offered an OTA HD recorder. It seems like they are dependent on content providers one way or another to survive.

I have been waiting for one to be released, but I have my doubts. I would like to buy into an S3 below $500 (my magic price). It just still seems too expensive.

The TV season is coming to a close with 24's finale airing Monday, so I can make some changes and not miss any must see programs.

I do enjoy some FX shows like Nip/Tuck and Rescue Me, but those are not even in HD and I can find them from BitTorrent. It's definitley not worth $50/mo for just those programs.

[samo]

Yeah, because that's a DVR that will really fly off of the shelves!

Are you sarcastic or really believe that it will?

[wierdo]

Are you sarcastic or really believe that it will?
I hope he's being sarcastic. Most people are unwilling to go OTA only for whatever reason, even if they rarely watch HD on cable/satellite. I guess they prefer to feel like they have more viewing choices, even if they almost never watch the cable channels.

[GoHokies!]

Are you sarcastic or really believe that it will?
Sorry, I should have been a little more clear I was being sarcastic. People complain about the low adoption rate of the S3 and about the fact that it doesn't do satellite, I can't see that box having any sort of potential unless it was really, really, really cheap.

[stevereis]

....
I would like to buy into an S3 below $500 (my magic price). It just still seems too expensive.
...

S3 for $400 (TCF STore price of $600 - $200 rebate).
Link to $200 rebate offer from 5/27-6/16 just posted. http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?p=5167498&&#post5167498

[rmassey]

Excellent find. I think this will push me over the edge. I was hoping for $399 all along so this one fits perfect for me.

[BlackBetty]

Or $406 from amazon ($606 - $200). With free shipping.

[George Webster]

I am in a similar situation. I recently reviewed the 74 season’s passes on my HDVR2 with 212 hours of recording space. I found that 72 of them were on ABC, NBC, CBS or FOX.

For D* with Total Choice Plus I pay $64.96 per month, including the fee for the Tivo service. For three years that totals $2,338.56

I just installed two UHF antennas facing two different directions. Total cost $190.00
I am getting all the above mentioned networks plus two other channels.

Now I need to order my Series 3 for $600.00 and pay the $300.00 for three years of service. Also a $429.00 upgrade from the stock 250 GB drive to a 750 GB drive. 107 hours of HD and 1015 of Standard definition sounds just fine to me.

Put the 250 GB drive in my computer

Total cost to switch over for three years is $1329.00 – saving more than $1009.00 – plus giving me a new hard drive for my computer and HD recording capability. The savings in future years will be even more because of no Tivo hard drive upgrades and no antenna expenses.

Then I am going to take that $1009.00 and pair it with the $300 I will probably get for my HDVR2 plus another $600.00 and buy a Toshiba 65HM167 – a top rated 65 inch DLP TV.

The sooner I take action, the sooner I begin saving money and enjoying television more.

[rmassey]

OK, my new math is this...

S3 - $606 (amazon) - 200 rebate = $406
3 yrs prepaid tivo service = + $299
Sell my HR10-250 for $300 ish on ebay
Total upgrade cost $405 give or take

$405/$59 (my current monthly D* bill) = 7 months and I break even and don't have to pay for TV for 3 years. :)

Done deal.