MSOs Moving Slowly on CableCARDs

[morac]

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=120695&site=cdn

Read and discuss.

Two interesting quotes:

The five largest MSOs -- Comcast Corp. (Nasdaq: CMCSA, CMCSK), Time Warner Cable Inc. , Charter Communications Inc. (Nasdaq: CHTR - message board), Cox Communications Inc. , and Cablevision Systems Corp. (NYSE: CVC - message board) -- accounted for the bulk of this total, having installed 229,000 CableCARDS as of March 15.
I wonder what percentage S3 users are of this since we all have at least 2 cards. :)

... the big MSOs say they're still running into numerous installation problems with these security modules, which are known as CableCARDs. At least two major MSOs claim that they're fielding 1,000 or more "trouble calls" a month concerning the modules.
Whose fault is this?

[MichaelK]

1,000 calls a month from at least 2 of the 5.

So lets say the 5 of them 2,230 calls a month. that's 1 percent A MONTH. Isn't that a pretty big failure/trouble rate?

I cant wait till July- that ought to be interesting....

[ajwees41]

1,000 calls a month from at least 2 of the 5.

So lets say the 5 of them 2,230 calls a month. that's 1 percent A MONTH. Isn't that a pretty big failure/trouble rate?

I cant wait till July- that ought to be interesting....


Why should it be interesting? From what I hear that only means new installs must have the new cable card boxes, and there is no replacing all the set tops come July.

ajwees41

[snowjay]

July is only going to matter for 4 out of the 5. Cablevision was granted an extension until 2009 because their boxes already use a seperate security card (SmartCard).

The Bureau granted Cablevision’s request for a limited waiver of the integration ban for their set-top boxes, which rely on a different security card – a SmartCard – for separated security instead of the CableCARD. The Bureau found that Cablevision’s SmartCard approach does not comply with our rules. The Bureau found, however, that there is good cause to temporarily grandfather Cablevision's use of its separated security solution until July 1, 2009. In making this finding, the Bureau noted that Cablevision has been using the SmartCard separable security solution since 2001, whereas other cable operators are only now beginning to place orders for set-top boxes that do not include integrated security. The Bureau also noted that Cablevision has ensured that its SmartCard works with all consumer electronics devices that can use CableCARDs.

I'm not sure what that last sentance means though. A SmartCard will not work/fit in a CableCard slot.

here is the source: http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=114443&print=true

[MichaelK]

Cablevision recorded 3,319 "installation and post-installation" problems with its 12,354 CableCARD subscribers between Jan. 1 and Mar. 12

so over 25% of cablevisions deployed cards has a problem in a 3 month period.

Thats AMAZING!

Cable blames the host devices. If the card installs correctly then how can anything change in the host device to creat a later problem? (sure their might be a latent issue that doesn't rear it's head until a legit change is made on the cable side- but logic would tell you most of the probelms after the install must be something cable does- No?)

Cable also says the slow take up rate is becasue current devices are one-way. Well who's fault is that? That's clearly square in cables lap. Maybe the FCC should say "you know the lack of a real 2-way standard is a problem- You have untill July 1 to finalize somethign or we'll have the CEA do it and then we'll give you till year end to roll it out 100%" - that would fix that- wouldn't it?

[MichaelK]

Why should it be interesting? From what I hear that only means new installs must have the new cable card boxes, and there is no replacing all the set tops come July.

ajwees41


250,000 installs out of 32,6 MILLION digital cable households- is tiny. Even with only new installs on July1 requiring cablecard with the way diguital cable is gaining subs the amount of cablecards deployed is goign to sky rocket. Assuming that just 5% of cable subs a YEAR move from analog to digital that means in 2 months time alone they would deploy more then 250,000 cable cards.


Lets see- 2 or 3 years to get to 250,000 or 2-3 months to add a second 250,000- which do you think will be more interesting...

(edit- sorry it's closer to 1 month - I was doing 5% of the 33 million CURRENT digital subs and not 55 of the 65 million total cable subs.)

[Brainiac 5]

About number of trouble calls, are they counting multiple calls for the same problem that occur because the technician didn't fix it the first time?

I know in my case, I called my cable company (Comcast) at least eight times for the same problem. Twice they sent someone to check the same things that the previous technician had, because they didn't have any record of what the previous one found!

From personal experience and reading many threads here, it seems that a lot of problems are due to a lack of trying on the part of the cable companies.

[MichaelK]

July is only going to matter for 4 out of the 5. Cablevision was granted an extension until 2009 because their boxes already use a seperate security card (SmartCard).



I'm not sure what that last sentance means though. A SmartCard will not work/fit in a CableCard slot.

here is the source: http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=114443&print=true

there's threads around here that talk about the cablevision extension in more detail.

Basically SOME cablevision areas use a 'cablecard sleeve' sort of thing. You put the normal cablevision nds smart cart in the sleeve and then put the sleeve in your cablecard host and it behaves like a cablecard.


Good point- it's just 4 of 5

So the installed base will double in 5 weeks instead of a month- LOL - kidding aside point is the installation rate is going to ramp up VERY fast in a matter of a few months. They might have stockpiles of ease returns to use or a warehouse of new boxes they can sneak into service or something but by year end there are goign to be a lot of cablecards installed regularly- and that's what will be interesting to see.

[MichaelK]

About number of trouble calls, are they counting multiple calls for the same problem that occur because the technician didn't fix it the first time?

I know in my case, I called my cable company (Comcast) at least eight times for the same problem. Twice they sent someone to check the same things that the previous technician had, because they didn't have any record of what the previous one found!

From personal experience and reading many threads here, it seems that a lot of problems are due to a lack of trying on the part of the cable companies.

since they are trying to pretend the host devices (the CEA's fault) are costing THEM tons on money I'm sure that they count all 8 of your calls individually. As you point out- one knowledgable person at the cable company probably would have fixed in the first time. But they waste their own money and blame others by not properly training their people and implementing the systems.

[snowjay]

Basically SOME cablevision areas use a 'cablecard sleeve' sort of thing. You put the normal cablevision nds smart cart in the sleeve and then put the sleeve in your cablecard host and it behaves like a cablecard.


Thanks. I figured it was something like that, I just haven't heard of it being used before now.

[MichaelK]

anyone find the link on the NCTA website with the report. I know in the bast they have been posted there. I cant seem to find any of them right now...

[sfhub]

99% of the problem calls are likely:
1) additional outlet fee complaints
2) MSO-caused problem with card authorization
3) inconsistent billing practices

Maybe 1% of the problems are really the fault of the CableCARD. MSO has an incentive to pump up the problem #s as much as possible so I wouldn't trust any number unless it was provided by 3rd-party audit with a breakdown of specific problems.

[dt_dc]

BTW, the actualy report from the NCTA is available here:
http://gullfoss2.fcc.gov/prod/ecfs/retrieve.cgi?native_or_pdf=pdf&id_document=6518914977

As always ... some interesting tidbits.

For example, CableVision reports that as of March 12, 2007 they are supporting 738 S3s.

[dt_dc]

anyone find the link on the NCTA website with the report. I know in the bast they have been posted there. I cant seem to find any of them right now...I don't think the NCTA puts them on their web sites. The reports are filed with the FCC and can always be found here:
http://gullfoss2.fcc.gov/prod/ecfs/comsrch_v2.cgi
Proceeding 97-80

[MichaelK]

I don't think the NCTA puts them on their web sites. The reports are filed with the FCC and can always be found here:
http://gullfoss2.fcc.gov/prod/ecfs/comsrch_v2.cgi
Proceeding 97-80


thanks for the pointer- I thought I found them at the ncta but must be dreaming- off to read at the fcc....

[MichaelK]

cablevision is supporting 738 Tivo Series 3's .... (apparently as of March 12)

[dt_dc]

cablevision is supporting 738 Tivo Series 3's .... (apparently as of March 12)smeek
http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?p=5012288&&#post5012288

Jeez ... can't even read the thread :p

[MichaelK]

amazing that they all still average well over 1 truck roll per install. (like 1.1 or 1.2)

Do analog cable installations also average well over 1 truck roll?

If I was the FCC I'd fine Charter immediately for purjury -> "all verified problems resulting from ..hosts"- Liar liar pants on fire. :-D I guess Charter is prefect and never makes any mistakes on their end?

[snowjay]

BTW, the actualy report from the NCTA is available here:
http://gullfoss2.fcc.gov/prod/ecfs/retrieve.cgi?native_or_pdf=pdf&id_document=6518914977

As always ... some interesting tidbits.

For example, CableVision reports that as of March 12, 2007 they are supporting 738 S3s.


It's definitely an interesting read. I wish the other operators would list their S3 saturation numbers.

[MichaelK]

smeek
http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?p=5012288&&#post5012288

Jeez ... can't even read the thread :p


I got so excited you gave me the link that I must have stop reading the rest of your post- :D

[snowjay]

amazing that they all still average well over 1 truck roll per install. (like 1.1 or 1.2)

Do analog cable installations also average well over 1 truck roll?

If I was the FCC I'd fine Charter immediately for purjury -> "all verified problems resulting from ..hosts"- Liar liar pants on fire. :-D I guess Charter is prefect and never makes any mistakes on their end?

But they did specify digital tv hosts... at least they didn't blame Tivo. :)

[MichaelK]

It's definitely an interesting read. I wish the other operators would list their S3 saturation numbers.


I'm actually kind of surprised that they list that. I could see that it would offend tivo to but their sales figures in a public document.

We can estimate how many S3's sold based on that.

cablevision has 3.1 million subs and there are about 76 million (feel free to correct) cable subs in the US. So cablevision has about 4% of the us cable subs. Assuming the take rate is the same all over we that would mean that there are only ~18,500 S3's deployed with cablecards. Toss in some more for OTA only or OTA/analog cable use and there's probably something like 20-30,000 S3's deployed.

[kido]

i whipped up a quick graph of the cablecard installation data contained in the last few reports.

http://www.neoki.com/cablecards.jpg

[dbenrosen]

We can estimate how many S3's sold based on that.

cablevision has 3.1 million subs and there are about 76 million (feel free to correct) cable subs in the US. So cablevision has about 4% of the us cable subs. Assuming the take rate is the same all over we that would mean that there are only ~18,500 S3's deployed with cablecards. Toss in some more for OTA only or OTA/analog cable use and there's probably something like 20-30,000 S3's deployed.

Your numbers are probably a little high. Cablevision's economic demographics are probably skewed toward the high end in the country (they serve NYC, Long Island, Northern and Central NJ, Connecticut).

[snowjay]

Your numbers are probably a little high. Cablevision's economic demographics are probably skewed toward the high end in the country (they serve NYC, Long Island, Northern and Central NJ, Connecticut).

Also in NY: Westchester, Rockland, Dutchess, Putnam and Orange counties.

[kido]

a few other interesting things that may or may not be related to the release of the S3.

using figures from the top 5 MSOs that support 80% of cable subscribers

on 09/15/06 there were 180,000 CC in service
on 12/15/06 there were 191,000 CC in service
on 03/15/07 there were 229,000 CC in service

as a percentage change over a 3 month period, you get 5.9%, 6.1%, and 19.9%, respectively, so we are seeing an acceleration in the deployment of CC devices.

also, and perhaps more interestingly, CableVision reported 10,120 CC in use on 9/15/06, just after the S3 release. On 03/12/07, they reported 12,354 CC in use. So the increase was 2,234 CC devices since the release of the S3. They reported 738 S3s were on their plant network and if we assume they all have 2 CCs installed that is 1476 CCs or 66% of the total cablevision CC installed since 9/15/06.

If we apply this to all the top 5 cable operators, we see a change of 49,000 CC devices since September. Applying the same ratio, 32,374 were for S3s which means the top 5 MSOs have somewhere around 16,187 S3s.

This, of course, doesn't include OTA or other non-CC users, plus subscribers to the other MSOs not included in these figures, so it could be considered a lower bound.

[HiDefGator]

It could explain why Tivo won't break down sales by SD\HD units. That was a lot of R&D for 20-30K units sold so far. Also explains why they are doing a low cost S3 now.

[HDTiVo]

We can estimate how many S3's sold based on that.

cablevision has 3.1 million subs and there are about 76 million (feel free to correct) cable subs in the US. So cablevision has about 4% of the us cable subs. Assuming the take rate is the same all over we that would mean that there are only ~18,500 S3's deployed with cablecards. Toss in some more for OTA only or OTA/analog cable use and there's probably something like 20-30,000 S3's deployed.
Nice job by both of you who looked at those numbers. I think you are in the right ballpark.

It could explain why Tivo won't break down sales by SD\HD units. That was a lot of R&D for 20-30K units sold so far. Also explains why they are doing a low cost S3 now.

If only they can catch up to the price curve.

[MichaelK]

Your numbers are probably a little high. Cablevision's economic demographics are probably skewed toward the high end in the country (they serve NYC, Long Island, Northern and Central NJ, Connecticut).

sure could be - so toss in a factor for socio-economic class of the sub base-

point is cablevision tossed out a number that allows people to estimate how many S3's are out there....

If I was tivo- who purposlly isn't supplying the s3 numbers to investors and cablevision tossed them out- I'd be peeved.

The whole rest of the FCC filing CE companies are identified by a letter or number- but cablevision calls out tivo in a couple places.

[snowjay]

Cablevision just making it known they are actively supporting the S3 since they know people are watching?

We know the other ops are "supporting" them too but with some of the things I've heard Comcast tech support say/suggest/recommend it doesn't seem like they really care all too much one way or the other.

On the CV yahoo group it's mostly been positive and when it's not Wilt (former pres of engineering now senior advisor who reads the group) gets the ball rolling to get the problem resolved.

[MichaelK]

could be an attempt top make nice- but they could have done it better so as not to tweak tivo.

"with a significant number of Tivo Series 3 installs" or "actively working with tivo to address some incompatibilites" etc....

Instead they toss out tivo's sales figures and then throw Tivo under the boss that there is a cp authorization issue with Tivo devices. Another line says "certain Tv models" have an issue and that they are workign with "the manufacturer" yet with tivo they toss out the name and model number to describe an issue.

[snowjay]

I agree, maybe providing the exact number wasnt the best idea.

I also don't read into "certain tv models" too much. So many sets share the same electronics that could exhibt the same or similar behaviors that the models might be too long to list for that summary report, whereas the Tivo shares its circuitry with nothing else so it's easy to isolate those.

[kido]

It could explain why Tivo won't break down sales by SD\HD units. That was a lot of R&D for 20-30K units sold so far. Also explains why they are doing a low cost S3 now.

20K would be my guess just for S3s using CC, all while not playing on an even field. if getting CC installed was as easy as a STB, they might have done even better. let us hope the integration ban isn't delayed further.

the real question is how many people are using them OTA only or OTA+analog cable? i would probably add another 5-10K for those users.

also, 20K units equals about $10 million in revenue, not including subscription costs. plus they can utilize their r & d on the next model.

[snowjay]

using figures from the top 5 MSOs that support 80% of cable subscribers

on 09/15/06 there were 180,000 CC in service
on 12/15/06 there were 191,000 CC in service
on 03/15/07 there were 229,000 CC in service

as a percentage change over a 3 month period, you get 5.9%, 6.1%, and 19.9%, respectively, so we are seeing an acceleration in the deployment of CC devices.


Do you think that last high in % is skewed a bit since the S3s take two cards? Might the real number be more like 9-10% in acceleration in deployment of devices.

[HiDefGator]

the real question is how many people are using them OTA only or OTA+analog cable? i would probably add another 5-10K for those users.


I doubt 5k people paid $600+ dollars to record HD OTA only. No ESPN HD. No Discovery channel. I'd lean closer to less than 1K own S3's that don't have cable cards in them. Especially if you believe that < 30K have them installed with cable cards.

[kido]

Do you think that last high in % is skewed a bit since the S3s take two cards? Might the real number be more like 9-10% in acceleration in deployment of devices.

holiday buying and S3s would probably both be influences on the jump in CC devices deployed from mid december to mid march. we don't have year ago figures, so it's difficult to determine the cyclical nature of CC deployments. in any case, demand for CC is increasing so hopefully the FCC will respond with this in mind.

[HiDefGator]

How many people called up and just asked for 2 CableCARDs and Cablevision installed them without ever communicating all the way back up the chain that they were installed in a TiVo?


I was under the impression the cable cards reported to the head end the type of device they were installed in. So cablevision can probably print a report at any time of the number and type of devices that cable cards are active in on any given day. I doubt it is tracked by what gets reported on paper.

But I agree with you the numbers are certainly a guesstimate at best. Tivo has openly said on conference calls that the S3 was more of a high end niche market device. They have never said sales of the S3 were blowing them away, only "meeting expectations."

[kido]

I doubt 5k people paid $600+ dollars to record HD OTA only. No ESPN HD. No Discovery channel. I'd lean closer to less than 1K own S3's that don't have cable cards in them. Especially if you believe that < 30K have them installed with cable cards.

OTA and OTA+analog cable are two of the best ways to get a great value out of the S3. monthly costs for those users are substantially less than for CC users, and I could see how plenty of people would be okay just OTA locals or with plain old ESPN or Discovery channel if they save more than $20 per month to do so. i do this myself, so count me as 1 of your 1K.

of course, i'm just guessing as are you, so i won't begrudge your opinion.

[HDTiVo]

About the S3 sales, and the Cheap HD Unit, and the whole CableCARD thing...

What TiVo really could use is a unit that accepted transfers from a Master S3. That they could sell in decent numbers for the price. (It also enhances S3/S3Lite sales by extending their value to other rooms.)

But then they've got the whole MRV problem, which goes back to why didn't they follow through with linking with INTC/MSFT...

I mean, it was clear way back that going the route of expensive full function DVRs at every "station" was a bad strategy. Going alone on DRM is a bad strategy. Depending completely on cableCARD is a bad strategy.

[kido]

Tivo has openly said on conference calls that the S3 was more of a high end niche market device. They have never said sales of the S3 were blowing them away, only "meeting expectations."

i've been thinking about this. even if the S3 were doing better than expected, TiVo may not choose to admit this for two reasons. first, it would lend credence to the MSO's position that the integration ban is not needed and the current state of CC deployment is good enough. second, they want to stick it to echostar when the time comes.

again. wild conjecture.

[dt_dc]

I really doubt that number is all that exact anyway...I could be totally wrong though.

How many people called up and just asked for 2 CableCARDs and Cablevision installed them without ever communicating all the way back up the chain that they were installed in a TiVo?

With Charter the guy showed up with 2 CableCARDs installed them and never said anything about a TiVo to the headend, or wrote anything about TiVo on the work order.

I just see so much room for error I don't see how that number could be even close to accurate.I was under the impression the cable cards reported to the head end the type of device they were installed in. So cablevision can probably print a report at any time of the number and type of devices that cable cards are active in on any given day. I doubt it is tracked by what gets reported on paper.The pairing data that gets displayed on the CableCard screen (that gets phoned in by the installer) can be used to identify specific make / model (Tivo S3, Sony KV-whatever). A cable company with the right software, reporting tools, and whatever else should be able to (very accurately) get an exact break-down of the CableCard hosts they have on their system. Of course if they don't have the right software ... and CableCards can be swapped between hosts at will ... and they aren't tracking that data ... not so much.

Note: Of course I have no clue if that's how CableVision came up with that number ... or if they're estimating ... or if they just pulled it out of their (wherever). Just saying it is certainly possible to have a very accurate count via the pairing data.

[dt_dc]

CableCARDs are currently only installed in 1 way devices, so there is no way for the CableCARD to report back to Cablevision what it is installed in.Host -> Video Output -> Screen -> Eye -> Brain -> Voice -> Telephone -> Ear -> Brain -> Fingers -> Keyboard -> PC -> CableVision

Not the most direct form of communicating back to CableVision ... but it's there. :p

[kido]

more fun with numbers.

it seems cablevision actually outed tivo in the december report as well, which leads to another analysis.

remember cablevision reported 10,120 CC devices as of 09/15/06, and unless people were really on the ball the number of S3s was pretty much 0.

cablevision stated in the 12/22/07 report they had 11,218 CC devices as of 12/5/06 and supporting 594 S3s.

in the most recent report, they reported 12,354 CC devices as of 03/12/07 and supporting 738 S3s.

as a percentage of CC devices, S3s account for 0% in Sep, 10.6% in Dec, and 11.9% in Mar.

if S3s had similar penetration amoung the other top 10 MSOs, who reported 259,000 CC devices that would mean there are 15,410 S3s in use with CCs.

basically, about 20-30K any way you slice it.

[HDTiVo]

Host -> Video Output -> Screen -> Eye -> Brain -> Voice -> Telephone -> Ear -> Brain -> Fingers -> Keyboard -> PC -> CableVision

Not the most direct form of communicating back to CableVision ... but it's there. :p
Repeat 6 times to make sure the numbers are transcribed properly.

[HDTiVo]

if S3s had similar penetration amoung the other top 10 MSOs, who reported 259,000 CC devices that would mean there are 15,410 S3s in use with CCs.

Why does that come out less than 16,187 S3s for top 5 MSOs you got before?

[MichaelK]

I really doubt that number is all that exact anyway...I could be totally wrong though.

How many people called up and just asked for 2 CableCARDs and Cablevision installed them without ever communicating all the way back up the chain that they were installed in a TiVo?

With Charter the guy showed up with 2 CableCARDs installed them and never said anything about a TiVo to the headend, or wrote anything about TiVo on the work order.

I just see so much room for error I don't see how that number could be even close to accurate.


no expert but if I recall the card has a number and the host has a number and they create a 3rd number.

I assume the host's number is like a MAC on a network. Can't you figure out what hardware is what based upon the MAC?

So if yo-u got a list of HOST ID#'s you could cull it for the range that is assigned to tivo?

[MichaelK]

....

I mean, it was clear way back that going the route of expensive full function DVRs at every "station" was a bad strategy.....


If I recall there's some quotes from the mucky mucks that early on tivo planned on master and slave architecture but the hardware couldn't handle it when they started so they wound up going down the road they did...

[MichaelK]

anyone find the link on the NCTA website with the report. I know in the bast they have been posted there. I cant seem to find any of them right now...


for folks interested I stumbled back on the link at ncta's site

it's a handy spot to see all- stike that - much of what cable has to say on the issue- all their reports and filings to the fcc linkedin one handy place

(for xample if anyone want to make longer term graphs I think all the status reports listed... check that ....seems to be some gaps- no idea why- i gues you have to hit the fcc website nd seart for 97-80 to get all the filins...


http://www.ncta.com/IssueBrief.aspx?contentId=2711