Confused about impact of Analog TV Shutdown on Cable and Tivo

[gconnery]

:confused: Okay, like a lot of other people I get my TV through cable. I also have a couple of Tivo boxes hooked up. A Series 2 Dual Tuner (one tuner of which can only tune analog channels), and an original Series 2. Both hooked up to cable boxes from Comcast.

Now if the current schedule is kept, on Feb 17, 2009 all analog television transmission over the air will cease in the US. In theory this doesn't affect me, since I don't use rabbit ears to receive anything.

HOWEVER, I'm not clear what will happen. Lets say my cable company still has a bunch of channels below 100 transmitting in analog on this date. Now, I assume the must carry rule no longer applies for local analog stations that aren't broadcasting, so presumably my ABC, FOX, NBC, CBS, and WB local affiliates will then vanish from my analog channel lineup no? Presumably by this point there are HD versions of these on the cable, but I'm almost certain these have to be transmitted in HD (no downconverting by some federal mandate or something).

In fact it could be that by this date ALL of the analog 6MHz channels will be gone from my cable plant, and everything, whether SD or HD will be in digital.

Maybe. Obviously some of the national cable channels like CNN or Comedy Central or whatever could continue to be available in analog, but the cable companies may no longer be required to offer analog channels, and since they can pack in about 10 digital SD channels to a single 6MHz band, they have good reasons to switch.

Which means that Tivo's without cable boxes, or the 2nd tuner in a DT won't be able to tune anything anymore.

And that little TV upstairs will need to get a cable box to see anything.

Obviously some of this is speculation about what different cable companies may do (Time Warner may be well into SDV by this point, so analog may be dead anyway).

Anybody got any facts, or speculation?

[johnspalm]

It all boils down to one thing....money.

Obviously, there will still be a demand for analog (on cable) since most households will still be in possession of TVs with built-in analog tuners. Therefore, don't expect the cable cos to end their analog service right away. It may take 10+ years before these analog TVs are replaced to a point where offering analog transmissions becomes non-profitable.

[nirisahn]

It all boils down to one thing....money.

Obviously, there will still be a demand for analog (on cable) since most households will still be in possession of TVs with built-in analog tuners. Therefore, don't expect the cable cos to end their analog service right away. It may take 10+ years before these analog TVs are replaced to a point where offering analog transmissions becomes non-profitable.

What he said. Plus, if my TiVo is still working when analog truly goes away, I'll be very surprised.

IMHO I don't see analog really going away in 2009. Too many households can't afford to upgrade to HD ready TVs or buy converters for their analog TVs. Plus, they'd need some way to get the signal, either a special antenna, or cable or satellite service, again at considerable expense.

[dt_dc]

Now, I assume the must carry rule no longer applies for local analog stations that aren't broadcasting, so presumably my ABC, FOX, NBC, CBS, and WB local affiliates will then vanish from my analog channel lineup no?Keep in mind that the vast majority of ABC, FOX, NBC and CBS affiliates are not carried under must carry rules. They are carried under transmission consent agreements (ie, contracts) between the affiliate and the cable company. Whether these stations are carried as digital or analog ... HD or SD ... or some combination thereof ... both before and after the analog cut-off ... are determined by contract between the cable company and affiliate.

As long as the cable company and/or broadcaster have incentive to carry analog versions on cable ... there will be analog versions on cable. And when they don't ... there won't. Regardless of the analog cut-off or not.

[dt_dc]

Now, true 'must carry' stations may very well start dissapearing from the analog line-up at the analog cut-off. PBS, CW, i, Telemundo, etc. Stations that the cable company might not even be carrying now ... except that the station has applied for 'must carry' status and must be carried. If the cable company doesn't want to 'waste' 6MHz carrying an analog version ... well, after the analog cut-off they won't have to and may very well become digital-only.

However, don't assume that the 'no material degradation' clause guarauntees that these channels will drop from the analog line-up either. If the cable company wants to carry an analog version of a must-carry station they are certainly free to do so if the broadcaster agrees. For example, if the cable company wants to carry an analog version of PBS ... and the PBS affiliate says OK ... they can do so.

Again, if the cable company and broadcaster have incentive to carry analog versions on cable ... there will be analog versions on cable. If not, there won't.

[atmuscarella]

Frankly I think the original post has it correct. Some cable companies will go all digital very soon others maybe years from now.

My guess is the bigger the cable company the faster they will go all digital. The fact that some people will still want analog cable without a cable box will be irrelevant. What choice will they have? switch to satellite? still works the same as digital cable and they will need a box for every TV.

The OTA analog to digital conversion will happen the Government wants the band width and is willing to spend billions to provide subsidized/free digital to analog OTA converters to get it.

Frankly I don't see any of this effecting Series 1 or 2 TiVos that much - they work with digital satellite boxs, digital cable boxs, and if TiVo wants the OTA digital to analog converter boxes to come. Yes Series 2 DT units will effectively become single tuner boxes but they will still work.

What really will effect the usefulness of a Series 1 or 2 TiVo is when the user wants to go HD and watch and record HD programs in HD, that's when that users Series 1 or 2 becomes outdated.

Thanks,

[stevel]

Cable users are not affected at all by this shutdown. Zip. Nada. The cable company remodulates the TV channels onto the cable and the FCC ruling has no effect on that.

The only people who are affected are those who receive stations using an antenna. The cable companies will use their digital TV receivers (or direct feed from the stations) to get the signal that they send to you over the cable. No difference for you.

[ah30k]

Cable users are not affected at all by this shutdown. Zip. Nada. The cable company remodulates the TV channels onto the cable and the FCC ruling has no effect on that.And from what source does the cable company remodulate the channel? An antenna which will no longer be using analog. Therefore the cable companies will not have an analog source to which it can remodulate onto the cable plant.

[PhillyGuy]

I think the transition will be a good opportunity for cable companies to move toward all digital transmission. Like the above poster said, there will not be that many alternatives for curent analog cable subscribers. They will have to get a set-top box for satellite or OTA reception. I wouldn't be surprised if the cable company requires all subcribes to get a converter box.

With DirectTV announcing the addition of 100 HD channels in the near future, big cable companies, like Comcast and TWC, cannot afford to fall behind as more people upgrade their TVs to HD. They need more bandwidth. Each analog channel uses about the same bandwidth as a HD channel or 3 SD digital channels. It makes sense for them to push for an all-digital service.

[HIHZia]

The end of OTA analog transmission WILL NOT affect your cable delivery. If and when cable decides to go all digital will have nothing to do with whether or not a certain channel is being delivered analog or digital. The cableco can deliver the signal to the subscriber any way they want. Analog to digital, digital to digital, analog to analog or digital to analog.

Eventually the cablecos will go all digital delivery, but most will do digital simulcast since there are many subs that would drop cable if forced to get a box. All the decisions regarding transitioning cable to digital are not impacted at all by the end of OTA analog transmission.

[PhillyGuy]

Eventually the cablecos will go all digital delivery, but most will do digital simulcast since there are many subs that would drop cable if forced to get a box. All the decisions regarding transitioning cable to digital are not impacted at all by the end of OTA analog transmission.

Don't forget that most of these people with analog TV don't have a choice after the analog->digital OTA transition. They are going to have a box regardless of which delivery system they go with. They need to buy a box to receive OTA signal or they can continue to have cable with a cable box.

[jautor]

And from what source does the cable company remodulate the channel? An antenna which will no longer be using analog. Therefore the cable companies will not have an analog source to which it can remodulate onto the cable plant.

But they can take the digital signal, convert to analog, and then modulate it... Just like I do in my house... :) I'd assume that by now some of the cable networks delivered by sat to the cable headends are transmitted digitally, and go through the same process for analog cable, too...

Now, will they do that to keep an analog tier? I guess that depends on the market. Cable's got an advantage in that regard, meaning they *can* run sets without cable boxes at every outlet. But of course, it's much more profitable for them to put those boxes in place...

Jeff

[jautor]

IMHO I don't see analog really going away in 2009. Too many households can't afford to upgrade to HD ready TVs or buy converters for their analog TVs. Plus, they'd need some way to get the signal, either a special antenna, or cable or satellite service, again at considerable expense.

Special antenna??? If someone is receiving OTA analog today, its very, very likely that they wouldn't need to do anything to their existing antenna. Just hook it up to the converter box or the digital-tuner set.

Our local NBC station is currently running a promotion to give away several thousand digital tuners. I saw one is use this afternoon in a restaurant... I'm not sure why they're doing it now, but since you had to fill out a survey (signal quality, do you have cable, etc.) I think they're using it to judge their actual OTA market size.


Jeff

[jkovach]

What he said. Plus, if my TiVo is still working when analog truly goes away, I'll be very surprised.

Why? I have a Philips Series 1 that I bought in '99. The only thing I've done to it was upgrade the HD in '01. Still running strong, and I expect someday the HD will need to be replaced, and then run fine for another 5 years or so, until ??? Seems as though as long as you have good clean power, a Tivo will last a very long time only requiring HD, power supply, and remote replacments.

[jkovach]

But they can take the digital signal, convert to analog, and then modulate it... Just like I do in my house... :) I'd assume that by now some of the cable networks delivered by sat to the cable headends are transmitted digitally, and go through the same process for analog cable, too...

Now, will they do that to keep an analog tier? I guess that depends on the market. Cable's got an advantage in that regard, meaning they *can* run sets without cable boxes at every outlet. But of course, it's much more profitable for them to put those boxes in place...

Jeff

I would think that with so many homes having less-feature filled 2nd, 3rd, etc. TVs, there will be a demand for an analog tier for many years, even if it shrinks to the point where it has just a dozen or so channels. Of course, it would be the dozen most popular channels which would be the local network affiliates and a few others. And as long as this remains in place, the Series 2 Dual Tuner models would still be able to resolve many recording conflicts for most people.

Or how about this idea... somebody comes out with a converter box that remodulates a bunch of digital channels into analog channels 1-99, which are then run thru coax to an analog TV or a Tivo which tunes them. Only problem would be getting guide data to match your home-brewed analog lineup... Channel mapping anyone?

[HIHZia]

Don't forget that most of these people with analog TV don't have a choice after the analog->digital OTA transition. They are going to have a box regardless of which delivery system they go with. They need to buy a box to receive OTA signal or they can continue to have cable with a cable box.

It still doesn't matter as far as cable is concerned. The OTA transition doesn't affect cablecos ability to send an anolog feed to that subs tv. They may no longer be able to get analog OTA but until the cableco goes all digital and requires a box they can still use the cable anolog signal on their tv (as long as it's cable ready).

Once the cablecos go all digital and stop doing digital simulcast then they will need to use a box, but the OTA cutoff has no bearing on when that will happen.

[DougF]

This may be a bit off-topic, but does anyone know how the shutdown of analog OTA broadcasts will affect eligibility for DNS from satellite providers?

[PhillyGuy]

It still doesn't matter as far as cable is concerned. The OTA transition doesn't affect cablecos ability to send an anolog feed to that subs tv. They may no longer be able to get analog OTA but until the cableco goes all digital and requires a box they can still use the cable anolog signal on their tv (as long as it's cable ready).


The cable companies will not have an incentive to continue analog feed for long after the digital transition. There will not be any alternatives at that time that would not require a converter box for analog TV sets. On the other hand, there's a huge competitve pressure from satellites, verizon fios, and possibly IPTV to increase bandwidth to accomodate more HD channels. All of these factors point to a move toward all digital cable feed in the near future.

[Scott Atkinson]

The cable companies will not have an incentive to continue analog feed for long after the digital transition. There will not be any alternatives at that time that would not require a converter box for analog TV sets. On the other hand, there's a huge competitve pressure from satellites, verizon fios, and possibly IPTV to increase bandwidth to accomodate more HD channels. All of these factors point to a move toward all digital cable feed in the near future.

Yep. In fact, it's likely the cable co.s will move to all digital and do the analog conversion via a box at the consumer's end prior to 2009, if they can.

Your life as a Tivo user/cable subscriber will be slightly affected, in that you'll have a second box to contend with.

As for the signal that gets to the cable co., in the case of my tv station and others in my town, we fiber it direct to the cable folks, who use OTA as back up.

Scott A.

[HIHZia]

The cable companies will not have an incentive to continue analog feed for long after the digital transition. There will not be any alternatives at that time that would not require a converter box for analog TV sets. On the other hand, there's a huge competitve pressure from satellites, verizon fios, and possibly IPTV to increase bandwidth to accomodate more HD channels. All of these factors point to a move toward all digital cable feed in the near future.

Yes, it will go that way eventually, but the incentive to keep some analog is the subs who don't want a box. Once they have to have a box some of those subs will convert to satellite and the cablecos don't want the attrition so there is some incentive to keep an anolog feed for a while. I'm not saying the cablecos won't go that way eventually, just that their plans aren't based on the OTA analog cutoff. Some may go all digital before then for their own reasons and some may keep analog well after for other reasons.

[ah30k]

Won't the hypothetical removal of analog channels revert all of the DualTuners back to single tuner functionality since the DT can only tune one external STB at a time?

[PhillyGuy]

Won't the hypothetical removal of analog channels revert all of the DualTuners back to single tuner functionality since the DT can only tune one external STB at a time?

Yes.

[classicsat]

And from what source does the cable company remodulate the channel? An antenna which will no longer be using analog. Therefore the cable companies will not have an analog source to which it can remodulate onto the cable plant.

They will use a digital OTA tuner. It will have the necessary RF in from their antenna, and A/V out to the modulator. They may need an intermediate MTS audio modulator, thats about it, for stereo audio and SAP.

For satellite DNS, thigs will likely not change, as it is about receiving the channels, not what format they are in.

[JJ]

Cable companies
are for profit and have a virtual monopoly over many customers. Even if there is no actual monopoly the perception is that cable is the way to watch TV. Many renters have no choice as they are not permitted to install a dish, antenna or associated wiring. If a way to make additional profits based on a government regulatory change cable operators will do it. Stockholders want maximum profits and well paid CEOs know that thier continued employment depends on meeting expectations.

When analog broadcast ends...

Cable operators have multiple choices/challenges:
1> pay broadcaster to create analog feed
2> convert digital broadcast to analog in house
3> require subscibers to go digital

Consumers have choices too:
1> go digital cable with increased cost of boxes
2> purchase OTA boxes and install antennas
3> change to satellite service

Everyone gets a choice. You may not necessarily like the choices you get but there are options available for everyone...

[HIHZia]

Cable companies
are for profit and have a virtual monopoly over many customers. Even if there is no actual monopoly the perception is that cable is the way to watch TV. Many renters have no choice as they are not permitted to install a dish, antenna or associated wiring. If a way to make additional profits based on a government regulatory change cable operators will do it. Stockholders want maximum profits and well paid CEOs know that thier continued employment depends on meeting expectations.

When analog broadcast ends...

Cable operators have multiple choices/challenges:
1> pay broadcaster to create analog feed
2> convert digital broadcast to analog in house
3> require subscibers to go digital

Consumers have choices too:
1> go digital cable with increased cost of boxes
2> purchase OTA boxes and install antennas
3> change to satellite service

Everyone gets a choice. You may not necessarily like the choices you get but there are options available for everyone...

What he said. :)

[photog72]

I am one who doesn't have cable, and never will (though, I will consider Verizon Fios). I have Dish (no locals) and an antenna for my analog and digital locals. I am one who wonders when/if my Series 2 single tuner will become obsolete in 2 years - when it comes to local channels. I run the antenna wiring directly to my Series 2. I just wanted to add, that I have a Dish 811 box. The Series 2 can tune to the analog OTA signals on the 811 box. It cannot tune to the digital OTA channels (10-1, 6-1, et cetera) on that box. Unless I am missing something, I hope Tivo updates the software to be able to let me change to those channels.

[stevel]

It has been noted before that TiVos could add support to instruct external ATSC tuners to select the digital channels, such as 10-1. There's no technical reason why this couldn't be done.

[photog72]

I apologize for my OT posts. I "fixed" the problem. I just eliminated the analog stations from my local channel list on my Dish 811. So, when the tivo changes the channel to, for example, 10, it automatically goes to 10.1.

[kb7oeb]

We've been using an 811 with a tivo for a while, it works great and the 811 does a good job down converting.

I think most cable companies will keep a lifeline analog cable package with at least just locals. Most of them get local feeds via fiber so the local stations might keep SD going for that or let the cable company down convert themselves. The hiccup comes with whether to crop down to 4:3 or letterbox, there is a signal they can send called active format descriptor that will let the converter know what to use.

If your cable companies goes all digital they will probably throw in the first converter for free since DBS does.

[DeathRider]

When analog broadcast ends...

Cable operators have multiple choices/challenges:
1> pay broadcaster to create analog feed
2> convert digital broadcast to analog in house
3> require subscibers to go digital

Consumers have choices too:
1> go digital cable with increased cost of boxes
2> purchase OTA boxes and install antennas
3> change to satellite service

Everyone gets a choice. You may not necessarily like the choices you get but there are options available for everyone...

Right now, RCN gave me this POS converter for $3/month:
http://broadband.motorola.com/consumers/products/dct700/

My guess, by the time OTA goes all digital,cable companies will quickly follow. By then, they may be loaning these out for free or very cheap.

I was upset when they took this one away (was willing to pay the $2 more a month):
http://broadband.motorola.com/consumers/products/dct2500/default.asp

I lost the clock, manual button control...but most of all, the ability to control the box through a serial connection as opposed to the IR blaster :(

[gconnery]

Well, that sort of clears some things up.

A few comments:

1) A single 6MHz analog band can accomodate 10 x 3.75Mbps SD digital channels, the typical rate for cable SD encoding. An HD digital channel generally takes 15Mbps, or the equivalent of 4 digital SD channels. So a 6MHz band (one analog channel) can accomodate 10 SD digital channels, or 6 SD digital channels and 1 HD, or 2 SD digital channels and 2 HD.

2) If there are cheap, highly subsidized converter boxes available I assume they'll be for OTA digital transmission, meaning receiving HD OTA signals and downconverting them to analog. YMMV. There won't be cheap mass-market digital cable receivers cuz there won't be anything for them to receive. Digital channels are or can be scrambled by the cable company, and can only be displayed by a device enabled by the cable company, meaning a STB or cablecard for now.