Will the Directv model fail before Tivo does ?

[dmheitz]

This entire forums existance is the bane of the Directv model.

With the Directv model, they own the hardware, the software, the medium for delivering content and much of the content. By owning the medium they can own the hardware, by owning the hardware they can own the software.

Directv may have won the battle, but will they lose the war.

(I know what you're thinking, that model is working pretty well for Apple and the iPod, why wouldn't it work for DirecTv.)

The answer is the medium for delivery. DirecTv's medium requires huge capital investment. Apple iTunes has a free medium for delivering content.

When the internet has the capacity to deliver HD content to a set-top box, satellite delivery is doomed, an 18-inch dish will seem as retro as a typewriter. Companies such as Netflix and Blockbuster probably see the writing on the wall as well. I believe the video store and DVDs are in their 14th minute of fame.

However, TiVo has always been about controlling how you watch your TV, not how the content was delivered. Much like Microsoft (but on a smaller scale), the Tivo software can easily adapt to the new medium.

Do you think this is coming soon, or will I watch Reggie Bush's entire career on the Sunday Ticket. And more importantly will the Tivo guy be around to see it.

[mwarner]

The answer is the medium for delivery. DirecTv's medium requires huge capital investment. Apple iTunes has a free medium for delivering content.

I would think Apple would correct you on that statement every time they get their bandwidth bill, server bills, etc. While it appears bandwidth is 'free' to the end user, I guarantee you that it isn't.


When the internet has the capacity to deliver HD content to a set-top box, satellite delivery is doomed, an 18-inch dish will seem as retro as a typewriter.

Still, satellite delivery is cheaper than cable TV delivery. Your local cable company has to get a franchise agreement with your local city, county, etc, lease space on telephone poles from the local phone company, install amplifiers, maintain all that equipment between their headend and your house. Yes, a new satellite from DirecTV costs lots of money, but that one satellite can cover the entire United States. Satellite delivery is pretty cheap if you're looking to cover a very large section of the country.

Don't forget, almost your cable TV channels are delivered to each cable company via satellite because that is still the cheapest way to go.

Yes, there is a chance that the internet can get enough bandwidth to each home to compete with satellite and cable, but I think that is farther in the future than you might think. What percentage of the US population still has internet dialup? 40%? 35%?

Just my comments.... feel free to challenge. :)

-Matt

[John T Smith]

When the internet has the capacity to deliver HD content to a set-top box, satellite delivery is doomed
Nice in theory, not so easy in implementation

The current copper wire system would need to be replaced by fiber optics, from the telco switching station all the way through the streetside pole, to allow the distribution grid to have the capacity for each individual user to then be connected to HIGH speed to be able to have real-time TV service

The current model of copper wire from the telco to the house is "sort of" fast enough to download individual movies (and even that "sort of" depends on the time of day and how many other people in the area are using the Internet) but is woefully too slow for everyone on the grid to be connect "real time" to watch live TV

I don't know when the telco's will make the investment to convert to fiber optics... but I don't think it will be any time soon

[John T Smith]

your cable TV channels are delivered to each cable company via satellite because that is still the cheapest way to go
Comcast in my city has a big tower next to their office... with a half-dozen or so BIG dishes aimed at various points in the sky

[mwarner]

Comcast in my city has a big tower next to their office... with a half-dozen or so BIG dishes aimed at various points in the sky

Oh... those aren't for TV.... they're for talking with our friendly alien overlords. :)

[Frylock]

Nice in theory, not so easy in implementation

The current copper wire system would need to be replaced by fiber optics, from the telco switching station all the way through the streetside pole, to allow the distribution grid to have the capacity for each individual user to then be connected to HIGH speed to be able to have real-time TV service

The current model of copper wire from the telco to the house is "sort of" fast enough to download individual movies (and even that "sort of" depends on the time of day and how many other people in the area are using the Internet) but is woefully too slow for everyone on the grid to be connect "real time" to watch live TV

I don't know when the telco's will make the investment to convert to fiber optics... but I don't think it will be any time soon

They already have started. Most areas around here have fiber at least to the local box, and then copper from there. And anywhere you can get Verizon FIOS you see fiber to the home. it's not coming, it's here. Not everywhere, but it is going to come a lot faster than most think, because companies know that if they don't they can't cash in on the demand for it.