Comcast DVR Price Changes

[Tiger17]

I received in the mail yesterday a new pricelist from Comcast (I live in the Philadelphia suburbs) effective 1/1/07. Some significant changes in DVR-related pricing:

1. Increase from no charge to charge of $1.50 per month for "dual CableCARDs for non-Comcast HD PVRs requiring two cards".

2. Monthly price of DVR service for "primary outlet" increased from $9.95 to $11.95.

3. Monthly price of DVR service for "additional outlet" increased from $9.95 to $16.90.

I find it very interesting that Comcast is actively discouraging the use of multiple DVRs in a single account or home in this way -- 180 degrees from the multi-service discount offered by TiVo. Under this pricing scheme, using three Comcast DVRs on a single account would cost $45.75 per month.

Consider the following hypothetical comparison of a setup with one HD TV and two SD TVs over a three year period, assuming no price changes in the interim:

Comcast: $45.75 per month x 36 months = $1647

TiVo: 1 series 3 ($799) + 3 year prepaid service plan ($299) + Comcast dual CableCARD charge (36 x $1.50) + 2 series 2DT (2 x $69 after rebate ) + 3 year MSD rate (2 x 36 x $6.95) = $1790

The two are now substantially more comparable in price than before Comcast's price changes. Obviously the TiVo requires a big payment up front and a three year commitment. On the other hand, you own the boxes at the end of the three years, which will presumably be worth something. And, to my mind, there is absolutely no comparison in functionality and ease/enjoyment of use between TiVo and the awful Comcast DVR.

It will be interesting to see how Comcast prices the TiVo service on its own boxes when offered sometime in 2007. Depending on a person's needs and situation, it may well prove to be MORE expensive than purchasing TiVo boxes.

[ZeoTiVo]

looks like both Comcast and TiVo are privvy to some marketing data/profit models that we are merely speculatiing about in the forums

[ADent]

That's because the true cost of the HD DVR is starting to affect them. You can justify a single DVR based on customer satisfaction, reduction in rollover, and high customer aquisition costs.

But the guy with 4 HD DVRs is costing you a bundle in HW costs. Raise those rates a bit and try to discourage.

The satellite guys used to give your first box free, but charge a lot for the extra boxes.

[smark]

Well, in some markets the additional is not that much of a jump and is going from $15.05 to that.

[bilbo]

ok, but do those new comcast prices include tivo? it's not impossible that comcast will "give"/"push" tivo to all their customers with the hope that tivo is "sticky" and people will want to keep renting their comcast motorola box with tivo software and possibly get a second (or third) tivo for an inflated rate. i doubt that comcast will let you network two boxes, but if you could transfer shows between DVR's that price for the second box is high but not if it came with some additional functionality.

but i think in actuality what comcast is showing with their new pricing model is that they are actually losing money on that first box rental but it is sort of a loss leader to keep their cable customers happy (and they are making more off of each customer from their programming than they are losing by renting the DVR). if each DVR has two tuners, the majority of their customers probably won't need a second box anyways.

[bpurcell]

if each DVR has two tuners, the majority of their customers probably won't need a second box anyways.

Except that doesn't help those with tv's in every room of their house. Having one DVR with two tuners doesn't really help that situation.

[bicker]

we watch most of our television in one room, and don't care about DVR service anywhere else. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that we're typical.

[classicX]

Or they could just be bringing their prices more in line with Tivo's new pricing. :eek:

OTOH, I received no such communication from Comcast, so this could be market specific, as most of their pricing already is.

Two HD DVRs at this new price amounts to $28.85 per month. The bottom line is, if I want the same deal from Tivo, for two S3 units, I MUST commit to at least one year of service (no such compulsory commitment from cable), and if I want to be out from Tivo's thumb in that one year, I either have to pay $39.90 per month or $398 up front (equalling 33.17 per month). I can get that down to $16.61 per month if I prepay 3 years for both units.

The cable DVR still comes out to be cheaper for the most similar levels of service, and (as of today) the Tivo offers only a nominal functionality improvement (in terms of features).

Add that to the fact that two S3's will cost you more than $1600 up front, and I don't see how this is a bad move for Comcast, or the customer.

Comcast is still saying: "Our DVR is cheaper than Tivo."

[Tiger17]

Comcast is still saying: "Our DVR is cheaper than Tivo."

I agree with respect to HD. For a single or multiple SD boxes, over time a longer-term committment to TiVo can yield a lower price than Comcast will be offering, at least in my area. Of course, Comcast does not offer different prices for HD vs. SD DVRs (again, at least in my area) so you may be paying a premium for HD capability you may not be using.

I don't see it as a bad move for Comcast, either. They will charge what the market will bear. Verizon FIOS has not yet arrived in my area, and satellite penetration is very low (Comcast SportsNet Phila not available via satellite), so it remains to be seen if serious competition will affect the pricing.

I have found a substantial functionality and ease of use difference between the Comcast HD DVR and the series 3. For those who find them comparable, the price differential will seal the deal in favor of the cable co's DVR, even at the new prices.

[bilbo]

Quote:
Originally Posted by bilbo
if each DVR has two tuners, the majority of their customers probably won't need a second box anyways.


Except that doesn't help those with tv's in every room of their house. Having one DVR with two tuners doesn't really help that situation.


I would highly doubt that over 50% of Comcast's customer have or want more than one DVR (well, maybe if price was no object the majority might want more than one, but...)


I don't see it as a bad move for Comcast, either. They will charge what the market will bear. Verizon FIOS has not yet arrived in my area, and satellite penetration is very low (Comcast SportsNet Phila not available via satellite), so it remains to be seen if serious competition will affect the pricing.


Comcast has taken advantage of loopholes and made sure that SportsNet Phila is not available to satellite providers. SportsNet Phila is not available from RCN (i.e. in Delaware County), also, from what I read 1-2 years ago (I believe it is because Comcast does not want to sell the programming to RCN, but I believe Comcast's cable rates are low in DE Co. as a result of the competition). I have read that FIOS TV is planning on carrying CSN. Verizon has reached an agreement on the price from Comcast, and they are carrying CSN in the Philadelphia area.

[classicX]

I would highly doubt that over 50% of Comcast's customer have or want more than one DVR (well, maybe if price was no object the majority might want more than one, but...)

I personally think that any person who experiences a DVR (in Hi Def) will want more than one, if not for the simple fact that you cannot transfer recordings from one room to another in HD. Any person / family who has more than one TV and regularly watch both is likely to at least WANT a DVR for both.

What Tivo could REALLY sell is some sort of satellite box that doesn't record by itself, and has a small hard drive, whose only job is to play back recordings from other Tivos on the network.

They wouldn't need to charge a subscription (no services provided for the box), and could sell it as a nice profit.

I'd buy one for every room with a TV.

[bilbo]

Quote:
Originally Posted by bilbo
I would highly doubt that over 50% of Comcast's customer have or want more than one DVR (well, maybe if price was no object the majority might want more than one, but...)


I personally think that any person who experiences a DVR (in Hi Def) will want more than one, if not for the simple fact that you cannot transfer recordings from one room to another in HD. Any person / family who has more than one TV and regularly watch both is likely to at least WANT a DVR for both.

What Tivo could REALLY sell is some sort of satellite box that doesn't record by itself, and has a small hard drive, whose only job is to play back recordings from other Tivos on the network.

They wouldn't need to charge a subscription (no services provided for the box), and could sell it as a nice profit.

I'd buy one for every room with a TV.


Consumer Reports said that about 20% of households in the U.S. will an HDTV by the time the SuperBowl kicks off in early 2007. I would consider that a high estimate, except for the fact that you can get a 42" Panasonic Plasma with SD card slot from Boscov's for $1,200. The manufacturers (and stores) are determined to move their inventory. $1,000 is the major psychological barrier that needs to broken still (for a major manufacturer flat panel in the 40-42" range), but it appears to be almost here. fry's was selling a samsung 4041 (40" lcd) for $1,200 about 2-3 weeks ago.

[nvaughan3]

"$1,000 is the major psychological barrier that needs to broken still (for a major manufacturer flat panel in the 40-42" range)"

Stores will be selling them for under $800 on Black Friday, and similar prices will likely continue through christmas.