How low will the S3 price go and how fast?

[Mobocracy]

I really really want an S3 and I'm sure I'll lose control and get one anyway, but even for a dedicated Tivo user, I think the $800 pricetag is a little breathtaking.

They cannot remain $800 when cable DVRs are $15 per month, sometimes less. The hardware alone doesn't justify the price -- complete Core2 PC packages with 17" LCD displays and 16x DVD burners from Dell are *under* $800, and that's far from the lowest price for such a combo.

Surely this is some enthusiast tax / early adopter penalty, and S3s will be $429 by February or at least Summer '07?

[HDTiVo]

I figure around $50/month for some time.

[rainwater]

I seriously doubt the price will drop by 50% in that short amount of time. I don't think TiVo is gouging the price. Initial hardware components are usually expensive to obtain and produce. It will take a long time for them to lower their production costs on this machine enough that they can drop the price that significantly.

[HomieG]

Don't forget, TiVo will be seeing some software licensing income from cable DVR's in the (hope not so) distant future. So they may not be looking at the cable DVR's as that much of a competitor...

[thwart]

I really really want an S3 and I'm sure I'll lose control and get one anyway, but even for a dedicated Tivo user, I think the $800 pricetag is a little breathtaking.

They cannot remain $800 when cable DVRs are $15 per month, sometimes less. The hardware alone doesn't justify the price -- complete Core2 PC packages with 17" LCD displays and 16x DVD burners from Dell are *under* $800, and that's far from the lowest price for such a combo.

Surely this is some enthusiast tax / early adopter penalty, and S3s will be $429 by February or at least Summer '07?

You would think the price would drop rather quickly considering that most of us are smart and realize that this is a bad value; but there are a lot of "Tivo fanboys" on these boards that think this price is TERRIFIC!

It's not that we can't afford it; but rather the problem is that purchasing a DVR for $800 is DUMB! The value that you get for that price is rediculous. Especially when you can pay $9.99 a month to get a DVR from the cable company. Sure the interface isn't as good. BUT IT ALSO DOESN'T COST $800.

Now I know that there are no dumb people on these boards and so I have to assume that these people are getting kickbacks from Tivo to write what they are writing.

[HomieG]

Don't forget, there are some folks out there that paid $1,000 for the DirecTiVo HD unit. It's the price of adopting early.

[jfh3]

but there are a lot of "Tivo fanboys" on these boards that think this price is TERRIFIC!

I haven't seen a single post from anyone that thinks the price is terrific. Not one.

If the MSRP was $399 or $499, then terrific might apply.

[thwart]

Don't forget, there are some folks out there that paid $1,000 for the DirecTiVo HD unit. It's the price of adopting early.

So Tivo thinks that their early adopters are DUMB?

In the past when the DVR was thought to be a myth and, if you were caught with one, you were considered a witch, the price of owning such a system should be high.

But now that anyone's sweet grandmother can get a simple podunk DVR from the local cable company that can allow her to: record two high-def channels at once, watch a recorded episode of Murder She Wrote, and not get burned at the stake all at the same time for only $9.99 a month I think the $800 price tag must be aimed at the rich, non-english speaking, mentally challenged early adopters.

And I think that is just wrong.

[BillyT2002]

TIVO should have released it at $1600.00 w/Lifetime service and then offered a 3 month limited deal to get one at $800.00 w/o Lifetime service. Then no one would be complaining and people who were concerned with money would be snapping up the cheaper deal w/o Lifetime service afraid that if they didn't get it now, they'd have to pay the higher price w/o Lifetime service later.

[thwart]

Wow! Do you work for Tivo?

[ebonovic]

It is simple economics.

Supply/Demand/Price

As from the other threads.... the unit is already "selling" fast... at the $800 mark.
What incentive does TiVo have to lower it at this time?

They have a LOT of R&D to recoop let alone any "loss" in hardware cost.

[rodalpho]

I think people are surprised at just how much unsubsidized hardware costs. Same thing with cellphones and videogame consoles.

Of course tivo has a reason to subsidize their hardware in the monthly fee and it's absurdly obvious that an $800 DVR isn't going to get mass market acceptance.

The only reasonable explanation is that they're rather directly and purposefully exploiting their biggest fans with this early adopter pricing and will sharply drop prices after christmas to pick up the mass market. As one of those fans, this makes me sad. Not enough not to buy one, though, so shame on me, I guess.

[ahaley42]

Cable boxes from cable companies cost close to the same amount as the S3. They are just subsidized by the other $100 a month that you give them. Tivo doesn't have the other income to make that happen. If you don't like it just say you don't think it's worth the money. You're not an idiot, and I'm not an idiot. No reason to go down the name calling road.

[thwart]

It is simple economics.

Supply/Demand/Price

As from the other threads.... the unit is already "selling" fast... at the $800 mark.
What incentive does TiVo have to lower it at this time?

They have a LOT of R&D to recoop let alone any "loss" in hardware cost.


Let's see how you feel in a couple weeks about your Supply/Demand/Price idea.

[Brett]

For every (gung-ho) "I don't care how much it costs and how many fetaures its missing, I want it because its TiVo and I need to have the latest (and not necessariliy greatest) thing on the market" post that I've read, I've seen at least 2 or 3 people posting that there is no way they are buying it for the $800 price tag.

To me, that means that TiVo messed up on their initial pricing strategy.
I have no idea how many units TiVo needs to sell or how many subscriptions they need to sell in order to break even on the R&D for the S3. If retailers are really buying the boxes for $500 each then they had to have cost less that to produce each box, TiVo wouldn't be selling all of these at a loss. Why didn't they offer this price to VIPs?

I have to imagine if they had lowered the price of the unit by $300 or more, they would have had ALOT more people buying it impulsively and a lot fewer people focusing on the negatives of the box and what's missing. This was their golden opportunity to steal customers away from the cable-company rental DVRs before the roll-out of the TiVo software on many of those boxes and they blew it.

Instead, they overpriced it, resulting in more people taking a harder look at exactly what they would be getting for their hard-earned $800 to $1000 and deciding not to buy. The days of the $800 - $1000 DVR are over...people have a lot more (cheaper) choices now. I would have loved to return to TiVo and traded in my Moto box, but you are just asking for too much money.

[TomJHansen]

So Tivo thinks that their early adopters are DUMB?

In the past when the DVR was thought to be a myth and, if you were caught with one, you were considered a witch, the price of owning such a system should be high.

But now that anyone's sweet grandmother can get a simple podunk DVR from the local cable company that can allow her to: record two high-def channels at once, watch a recorded episode of Murder She Wrote, and not get burned at the stake all at the same time for only $9.99 a month I think the $800 price tag must be aimed at the rich, non-english speaking, mentally challenged early adopters.

And I think that is just wrong.


ROFL

[Lukej]

You would think the price would drop rather quickly considering that most of us are smart and realize that this is a bad value; but there are a lot of "Tivo fanboys" on these boards that think this price is TERRIFIC!

It's not that we can't afford it; but rather the problem is that purchasing a DVR for $800 is DUMB! The value that you get for that price is rediculous. Especially when you can pay $9.99 a month to get a DVR from the cable company. Sure the interface isn't as good. BUT IT ALSO DOESN'T COST $800.

Now I know that there are no dumb people on these boards and so I have to assume that these people are getting kickbacks from Tivo to write what they are writing.


You know, that price *is* ridiculous. I would have been fine with a non-HD Tivo that does have cablecards and eliminates the need for the stupid digital cable boxes. If the price ever drops, and cablecard technology stabilizes, that is what I will use Tivo for, and not to record the whopping number of 32 hours of HD.

[drwtsn32]

I haven't seen a single post from anyone that thinks the price is terrific. Not one.
Undoubtedly he meant "terrific" as in "terrifying."

[rodalpho]

I would have loved to return to TiVo and traded in my Moto box, but you are just asking for too much money.
So wait 3 months. You can already get it for 10% off at circuitcity, prices will drop after christmas with various incentives. It's only the early adopters that will get screwed. When you buy your s3 in january for $500 plus a 1yr subscription, you can laugh at all of us suckers.

[HDTiVo]

For every (gung-ho) "I don't care how much it costs and how many fetaures its missing, I want it because its TiVo and I need to have the latest (and not necessariliy greatest) thing on the market" post that I've read, I've seen at least 2 or 3 people posting that there is no way they are buying it for the $800 price tag.

To me, that means that TiVo messed up on their initial pricing strategy.

I wouldn't want TiVo to satisfy more than 10% here with the first price. Before Thanksgiving they can satisfy another 20%. Then right before/after XMAS they can satisfy another 20%.

[rodalpho]

Umm, shouldn't their goal be to deliver a great product at a great price and sell a billion of em, making everybody happy? I like tivo and want the company to succeed, but speaking as a s3 owner it seems a bit disingenuous to praise them for price gouging their loyal customers.

[rainwater]

Umm, shouldn't their goal be to deliver a great product at a great price and sell a billion of em, making everybody happy? I like tivo and want the company to succeed, but speaking as a s3 owner it seems a bit disingenuous to praise them for price gouging their loyal customers.

Who says they are price gouging? These boxes are expensive to make. They have been making the S2s for a long time and have lowered the production costs with each revision. Also, they are subsidizing a lot of the S2 costs in the service plans. You can't expect to sell the S3 for less initially considering the costs and development of the first Series 3.

[MickeS]

So Tivo thinks that their early adopters are DUMB?

In the past when the DVR was thought to be a myth and, if you were caught with one, you were considered a witch, the price of owning such a system should be high.

But now that anyone's sweet grandmother can get a simple podunk DVR from the local cable company that can allow her to: record two high-def channels at once, watch a recorded episode of Murder She Wrote, and not get burned at the stake all at the same time for only $9.99 a month I think the $800 price tag must be aimed at the rich, non-english speaking, mentally challenged early adopters.

And I think that is just wrong.

Just don't buy one and stop whining.

[alex_kac]

Umm, shouldn't their goal be to deliver a great product at a great price and sell a billion of em, making everybody happy? I like tivo and want the company to succeed, but speaking as a s3 owner it seems a bit disingenuous to praise them for price gouging their loyal customers.

Not if it they can't make that many. If they can only make 1000 of them a month, then why not sell it at the highest price they can think they can charge? I don't like the price either, but I'm not an early adopter. Tivo knows what they are doing: Making the units, ramping up production, and in the meantime selling the product at a premium because they can which helps them pay off that R&D sooner. And last I saw, making two HD tuners with all the licensing involved costs a LOT of money. Don't even worry about the other hardware cost. Just cablecard and the HD tuners I'm sure is a big part of the cost. With mass production, it will go down.

[Maxx_75]

I want one bad and can afford it but choose not to at this time. $800 is too much for what it is. This is probably just an issue of them only being able to make a certain ammount of them and charging that price because they are going to sell them all anyway why not make a boatload of money in the process. I think that this box will be down to $600-100 rebate for Christmas and even less come January. Then I will re-evaluate the purchace.

Also I dont feel like getting it on with the Cable company over cards at the moment.

[Phantom Gremlin]

and in the meantime selling the product at a premium because they can which helps them pay off that R&D sooner.
What "R&D"?

Based on all the missing features, I think software "R&D" on this product consisted of a couple of summer interns cutting and pasting snippets of code they happened to find on various file servers at TiVo HQ.

Hardware "R&D" was probably even simpler. For example, TiVo couldn't be bothered to update their old design to use the newer Broadcom silicon.

Okay, I'm exaggerating, but unfortunately there's more than a kernel of truth there.

[eisenb11]

Guys don't even bother...

Anyone whining about the price has no concept of how businesses work in the real world.

They don't understand that manufacturing a new product is expensive and that it takes early adoptors paying high prices in order to pay for initial costs and to cover the cost of defects as they work to increase factory yield. This is a process that takes time... eventually the price will come down.

Most of the whiners are spoiled by the current S2 pricing not realizing that it was not always that cheap and that it took years for the price to come down to where it is.

They're fast to insult the early adopters and call them stupid... not realizing that if it weren't for us footing the bill for R&D and initial manufacturing, they'd have no hope of getting these electronics for a decent price.

Tivo isn't stupid. They're doing what the industry does... but maybe they'd only be happy if the S3 were released for $200. Then they can buy and enjoy their S3s while Tivo goes bankrupt.

----

PS. As for "no one buying these" for $800... the S3 sales volume has caught Tivo off-guard. They've sold so many that they're having a hard time getting them shipped out on-time (in fact, they're not on time and are already facing minor shipping delays). Even Tivo didn't think the initial sales volume was going to be so high...

[BillyT2002]

Everyone in America wants a free ride and it is understandable in a competitive market like this one. However, I cannot understand why people who are unhappy with the initial price of an initial product offering feel compelled to publically complain about said initial price. If you are really so unhappy about the price, then why vent here? Why waste the time? Money is evidently a huge concern for you and I hate to clue you in on this, but time is also money. You could be out right now working another job and adding to your expendable income so that maybe an $800.00 price tag on an item would not be such a big deal to you anymore. Or you could just stay silent and vote with your wallet by not buying the product and renting (leasing) a competitor's product far cheaper from the competitor.

I find it really funny that instead of doing what makes logical sense, you'd choose to come hear and get all bent out of shape on a public forum. What a waste of time, potential money and bandwidth all at the same time.

Give TIVO a break. They need long term profitability if they are still going to be around to enhance and further develop the products that we all love. At least give them 6 months to a year to make some money and then complain if the price hasn't gone down and you still feel compelled to.

And, no I do not work for TIVO, I work for a medical software company as a software developer in Skowhegan, ME.

[classicX]

Now I know that there are no dumb people on these boards

Good one! :up: :D

[bicker]

When cost is driving price, you know you're in trouble. With something like the S3, you need demand -- customer-perceived value -- to be driving price, not cost. Customers don't care how much it costs you to provide them something. They care how much value it delivers to them. As long as the S3's price is driven by the cost of providing it, it's a loser in the marketplace.

[classicX]

They have a LOT of R&D to recoop let alone any "loss" in hardware cost.

R&D, yes. Hardware? No.

They sell these to retail channels (BB, CC, etc.) for $500 each. Assuming they are not selling at a loss, every order at Tivo.com is at LEAST $300 profit.

They won't see it as an incorrect price, because people are buying them. They assume (probably correctly) that once the price drops, the people that wanted one before release but couldn't take the $800 fee, will buy it after the price drops enough.

The only way that $800 is incorrect is if the people that aren't buying it at that price, don't buy it at any price.

As far as I'm concerned, they may still have a chance with me if the price goes below $500 and MRV is enabled. But the fact of the matter is, for the price of two Tivo S3 units ($1600), once Vista is out, I can get a HTPC AND an Xbox360 for the same price, and have exponentially more functionality.

So in that light, $800 may indeed be the wrong price, but it probably isn't, because people like me (who would be able to deal with a HTPC) are currently few and far between - people would likely go for the simpler Tivo.

That said, I had been excited for nearly a year when I heard about the S3, and I am grossly disappointed in the price + lack of features.

[classicX]

You could be out right now working another job and adding to your expendable income so that maybe an $800.00 price tag on an item would not be such a big deal to you anymore.

If I were drinking milk at the time I read this it would've been all over my monitor and coming through my nose. :)

Thx for making my day.

[headless chicken]

Supply/Demand/Price

As from the other threads.... the unit is already "selling" fast... at the $800 mark.
What incentive does TiVo have to lower it at this time?



I think it would be erroneous to draw conclusions about the unit's demand based on the crazed postings of this forum. It is *not* a representation of the public at large.

[Brett]

Everyone in America wants a free ride and it is understandable in a competitive market like this one. However, I cannot understand why people who are unhappy with the initial price of an initial product offering feel compelled to publically complain about said initial price. If you are really so unhappy about the price, then why vent here? Why waste the time? Money is evidently a huge concern for you and I hate to clue you in on this, but time is also money. You could be out right now working another job and adding to your expendable income so that maybe an $800.00 price tag on an item would not be such a big deal to you anymore. Or you could just stay silent and vote with your wallet by not buying the product and renting (leasing) a competitor's product far cheaper from the competitor.

I find it really funny that instead of doing what makes logical sense, you'd choose to come hear and get all bent out of shape on a public forum. What a waste of time, potential money and bandwidth all at the same time.

Give TIVO a break. They need long term profitability if they are still going to be around to enhance and further develop the products that we all love. At least give them 6 months to a year to make some money and then complain if the price hasn't gone down and you still feel compelled to.

And, no I do not work for TIVO, I work for a medical software company as a software developer in Skowhegan, ME.

I'm insulted by your post!
I don't want a free ride. I work hard for my money and I refuse to pay an inflated price for something. We don't all have the loads of expedible income that you apprently have. Getting another job just to afford a TiVo is just stupid...when would I watch it?

TiVo's long-term profitablity would be better served by getting as many new/addtitional unit subscribers as they can, rather than trying to make a quick buck off the new harware.

I intend to show my displeasure with TiVo's pricing strategy with my wallet, but perhaps you've heard expression, "The squeaky wheel gets the grease."

There are some TiVo employees read these forums, and so this seems like as good a place as any to raise my concerns about price, lack of features etc, so TiVo knows why they aren't getting my money. If people remained silent as you have dictated them to, then TiVo would have no idea just how many sales they have lost.

If you don't like my comments then don't read them, but I'm not going to sit back and act as if I'm fine with all of this.

[BillyT2002]

Well - each to his own. Just don't burst a blood vessel in the process, okay? ;)

[robbins]

It is simple economics.

Supply/Demand/Price

As from the other threads.... the unit is already "selling" fast... at the $800 mark.
What incentive does TiVo have to lower it at this time?

They have a LOT of R&D to recoop let alone any "loss" in hardware cost.

Unless they dramatically lower the cost they will lose money with all the lost business. You are crazy to pay $800 for this and yes, those crazy people will get them this week but Tivo NEEDS alot more business than the crazy fanatics who would pay $3,000 for a Tivo...they need the mainstream audience who won't throw money down the toilet like that.

[vman41]

I think the 30-day return policy puts a limit on how fast the price can drop. A big price drop right away will mean a lot of returns followed by repurchase at the lower price. 3 weeks after I bought my LCD TV, the price dropped by $400, I took my receipt back to H.H. Gregg and invoked their price protect policy. A month later I got a refund check.

[eisenb11]

Unless they dramatically lower the cost they will lose money with all the lost business. You are crazy to pay $800 for this and yes, those crazy people will get them this week but Tivo NEEDS alot more business than the crazy fanatics who would pay $3,000 for a Tivo...they need the mainstream audience who won't throw money down the toilet like that.

Oh!?! Tell that to Monster Cable and Bose!

[classicX]

I think everyone here needs to take a course in supply and demand. I think Tivo may have done so.

MONEY MAKER PROGRAM

10 Release new, highly anticipated product, at a borderline ridiculous price.
20 Wait for all the fanbo^H^H^H^H^Henthusiasts to throw money at you.
30 When you've squeezed all you can out of them, lower the price by 5-12%.
40 Allow everyone who was waiting for the price to drop to throw money at you.
GOTO 30

END

As you can see, all of you people who plan on "voting with your wallets" and are waiting for the price to drop are doing exactly what they expect of you. The only true "vote" is the decision not to buy. AT ALL.

[robbins]

I think everyone here needs to take a course in supply and demand. I think Tivo may have done so.

MONEY MAKER PROGRAM

10 Release new, highly anticipated product, at a borderline ridiculous price.
20 Wait for all the fanbo^H^H^H^H^Henthusiasts to throw money at you.
30 When you've squeezed all you can out of them, lower the price by 5-12%.
40 Allow everyone who was waiting for the price to drop to throw money at you.
GOTO 30

END

As you can see, all of you people who plan on "voting with your wallets" and are waiting for the price to drop are doing exactly what they expect of you. The only true "vote" is the decision not to buy. AT ALL.

The problem is, once you drop the price you insult and anger the people who were crazy enough to over-pay in the first place. You end up making everyone mad, and that is bad business practice. Good business practice is to just start off with a fair and reasonable price and keep it that way, instead of playing games.

[eisenb11]

R&D, yes. Hardware? No.

They sell these to retail channels (BB, CC, etc.) for $500 each. Assuming they are not selling at a loss, every order at Tivo.com is at LEAST $300 profit.

They won't see it as an incorrect price, because people are buying them. They assume (probably correctly) that once the price drops, the people that wanted one before release but couldn't take the $800 fee, will buy it after the price drops enough.

The only way that $800 is incorrect is if the people that aren't buying it at that price, don't buy it at any price.

As far as I'm concerned, they may still have a chance with me if the price goes below $500 and MRV is enabled. But the fact of the matter is, for the price of two Tivo S3 units ($1600), once Vista is out, I can get a HTPC AND an Xbox360 for the same price, and have exponentially more functionality.

So in that light, $800 may indeed be the wrong price, but it probably isn't, because people like me (who would be able to deal with a HTPC) are currently few and far between - people would likely go for the simpler Tivo.

That said, I had been excited for nearly a year when I heard about the S3, and I am grossly disappointed in the price + lack of features.

Um, no.

If they sell to BestBuy for $500 and BestBuy sells for $799, you really expect tivo.com to sell for less than that?

You don't bite your distributors, buddy. Tivo can't sell for less than their distributors... that's bad business and the retail outlets won't stand for that.

Also, there are plenty of downsides to having a Vista HTPC - I considered one and ruled in favor of Tivo. I don't need another computer, I want to watch TV... and as far as TV accessories go, the S3 will be cheaper than a Vista CC-compatible HTPC, it's out now (who knows when Vista is coming), the Tivo interface is better than the Vista MCE interface (I'm not happy w what I've seen so far), it's quieter than a computer, and it'll use less energy.

On top of that it'll be easier to use, I won't have to worry about viruses and all kinds of malware, and it'll most likely be much more stable than a brand new operating system.

[eisenb11]

The problem is, once you drop the price you insult and anger the people who were crazy enough to over-pay in the first place. You end up making everyone mad, and that is bad business practice. Good business practice is to just start off with a fair and reasonable price and keep it that way, instead of playing games.

Well, it depends on how they do it.

If they drop the price next week or next month yes... but we do have to expect that the price will drop over time.

Personally, I'm expecting the first price drop to kick in between 6-12 months from now and subsequent pricedrops roughly every 6-12 months thereafter.

[MickeS]

The problem is, once you drop the price you insult and anger the people who were crazy enough to over-pay in the first place. You end up making everyone mad, and that is bad business practice.

Wow, you've never bought any consumer electronics in the past 10-15 years have you? Anyone who buys a product when it first comes out knows that the price will go down later on, and normally it doesn't even take that long for it to happen. If you don't know that, then you're the exception, not the rule.

The TV I bought a month and a half ago is now $200 less. That's life. Anyone getting pissed off that TiVo will lower the price is frankly an idiot (yes, I can call them idiots if you can say that people who have money to spend are crazy).

[HDTiVo]

You are all wrong; every last one of you. :p

[eisenb11]

You are all wrong; every last one of you. :p

But he says he's right, and I say he's wrong... so if we're all wrong that creates a paradox which would... [universe explodes] ...

[Ereth]

I think it would be erroneous to draw conclusions about the unit's demand based on the crazed postings of this forum. It is *not* a representation of the public at large.

Perhaps not, but it is NOT erroneous to judge demand by the fact that TiVo can't keep up with the orders on their web site and there are huge delays in shipping because they are getting more orders than they expected and that many big box stores are reported as being out of stock only a day or two after receiving their shipment.

Clearly if there was no demand, none of those things would be true. Simple economics says that if the demand is so high that your inventory runs out in one or two days that your product is priced TOO LOW.

As my Economics professor used to say "When Demand is High, Prices go UP". Not that I expect TiVo to raise prices, but it pretty effectively puts the argument that it's priced too high to rest.

It's priced too high FOR YOU. It's clearly not priced too high for the market. Given that people are standing in line to give TiVo $800 (and complaining that they can't do so sooner), what kind of idiots would they have to be to actually LOWER the price?

[TonyD79]

Simple economics says that if the demand is so high that your inventory runs out in one or two days that your product is priced TOO LOW.


Not true. We don't know how many they actually shipped. Just because they underestimated the initial demand, doesn't mean the demand will keep up beyond the first week or two.

Every item of any demand has an initial spurt of sales. Everything from video games to cars to new items at Burger King to DVD releases.

And, of course, with TiVo, you do have the fanboys running out to get it. And driving the price up.

[vman41]

Perhaps not, but it is NOT erroneous to judge demand by the fact that TiVo can't keep up with the orders on their web site and there are huge delays in shipping because they are getting more orders than they expected and that many big box stores are reported as being out of stock only a day or two after receiving their shipment

Modern technology lets pent-up demand be unleashed on the retail outlets much faster than before. Should you build a lot of capacity to meet a sales rate that will only last a week or two before falling to a fraction of that rate? The failure was that the ordering system wasn't making real-time evalutions of shipping times and setting the proper expectations for the buyer.

What happened to TiVo was the equivalent of everyone going to the bathroom at Superbowl halftime.

[R. Kalia]

Cable boxes from cable companies cost close to the same amount as the S3. They are just subsidized by the other $100 a month that you give them.
This brings up an interesting possibility. TiVo agreed to produce a PVR for Comcast 1-1/2 years ago; as far as I know, they have not delivered a product. But they've got the makings of a cable company PVR already....just add two cablecards and stir. And they can sell this solution to any cable company, not just Comcast.

So the S3 could start appearing as a monthly-rental PVR from cable companies soon after TiVo runs out of people willing to pay $800. Or just as soon as the cable companies decide to acquire new hardware rather than load TiVo on POS Motorola hardware. (I am sure they need to buy some new PVR boxes on an ongoing basis, and those could be S3.)

Of course by then we couldl have Cablecard 2.0 and the S3 will be obsolete. Still, it's a thought.

[R. Kalia]

As my Economics professor used to say "When Demand is High, Prices go UP".
The fact that inventory has run out doesn't mean there is huge demand, but only that demand has exceeded a (perhaps artificially low) supply. We don't know what the supply is. You can't make money or dominate the market by selling a few thousand units at a high price. And it seems pretty clear that TiVo cannot sell millions of units at this price.

That having been said, it is pretty silly of people to complain so much about the price. TiVo's not in business to make everyone happy. If they want to sell a few Maseratis, they have every right to do so.

[jfh3]

Perhaps not, but it is NOT erroneous to judge demand by the fact that TiVo can't keep up with the orders on their web site and there are huge delays in shipping because they are getting more orders than they expected and that many big box stores are reported as being out of stock only a day or two after receiving their shipment.

Well, so far, every big box store I've talked to are only getting a few (e.g. <10, and usually 2-3) per shipment, so it's not like we're talking huge volumes here, at least not yet.

It would be interesting to see what the sales volume is the first week, but I doubt it's as high as some here think, though clearly higher than Tivo was expecting.

[jfh3]

This brings up an interesting possibility. TiVo agreed to produce a PVR for Comcast

No, they agreed to produce a software download for existing Motorola DVR boxes, NOT a new hardware platform.

[rainwater]

No, they agreed to produce a software download for existing Motorola DVR boxes, NOT a new hardware platform.

Actually some Comcast representives have told customers they will be using a newer Motorola box for the TiVo software. So if every Comcast Motorola user thinks they will get TiVo software on their box automatically, may be disappointed.

[R. Kalia]

No, they agreed to produce a software download for existing Motorola DVR boxes, NOT a new hardware platform.I realize that, I expressed myself poorly there. But it's vaporware so far. The S3 would be Plan B, and they actually have a working product.

I am sure the Motorolas (whether current models or the potential newer model) don't cost $800 each, but with a large order, Comcast will be paying significantly less than the current $500 wholesale price for the S3.

I just don't see how they can do TiVo with a software upgrade. Some of the Motorola PVR bugs may be hardware related. And at the very least you'll need a TiVo-style remote...

In another post I put a link to a TiVo ad in a trade journal:

http://www.pvrblog.com/photos/uncategorized/ichatscreensnapz001.png

Could a subtext be "Choose us as your PVR supplier"? Doesn't have to be exactly the S3, could be a custom version.

[robbins]

Wow, you've never bought any consumer electronics in the past 10-15 years have you? Anyone who buys a product when it first comes out knows that the price will go down later on, and normally it doesn't even take that long for it to happen. If you don't know that, then you're the exception, not the rule.

The TV I bought a month and a half ago is now $200 less. That's life. Anyone getting pissed off that TiVo will lower the price is frankly an idiot (yes, I can call them idiots if you can say that people who have money to spend are crazy).

You need to shop at Costco. Oh, and I am not the one who would be pissed at Tivo lowering the price...I think they will HAVE to lower it to keep from going under because there will not be enough people who choose to grossly overpay for something that should be $100-$200.

[thwart]

TiVo's not in business to make everyone happy.

Wow.

[HDTiVo]

Back when I went to movie theaters, I used to look at the 4 block lines on Friday night on my way to dinner. The movie was still very nice and the same price when the theater was 1/4 full on Sunday.

[MickeS]

You need to shop at Costco. Oh, and I am not the one who would be pissed at Tivo lowering the price...I think they will HAVE to lower it to keep from going under because there will not be enough people who choose to grossly overpay for something that should be $100-$200.

Yup.

[Mobocracy]

The problem is, once you drop the price you insult and anger the people who were crazy enough to over-pay in the first place. You end up making everyone mad, and that is bad business practice. Good business practice is to just start off with a fair and reasonable price and keep it that way, instead of playing games.

I haven't been a regular reader of this forum in a long time, but after I got the S3 email from Tivo I thought I'd check in again and was surprised to see how little has changed -- there's still a group of people vociferously arguing that Tivo's functionality/UI is worth *any* premium.

That being said, this group of people won't really care if the price drops since it was already a value to them at the higher price; value arguments involving relative costs vs. relative benefits vis-a-vis DVRs don't really have any meaning to them.

[maki]

Just don't buy one and stop whining.

Agreed! :D

[jfh3]

Actually some Comcast representives have told customers they will be using a newer Motorola box for the TiVo software. So if every Comcast Motorola user thinks they will get TiVo software on their box automatically, may be disappointed.

This may be true - I've heard that it won't work on the older Motorola 6412 Phase I and II boxes, only the Phase III and newer, but don't know for sure.

[BillyT2002]

Some of us are glad for the opportunity to pay the full cost for something we believe in and appreciate. And, if we help the company to be profitable in the process, then all the better. That is the goal.

[m_jonis]

I really really want an S3 and I'm sure I'll lose control and get one anyway, but even for a dedicated Tivo user, I think the $800 pricetag is a little breathtaking.

They cannot remain $800 when cable DVRs are $15 per month, sometimes less. The hardware alone doesn't justify the price -- complete Core2 PC packages with 17" LCD displays and 16x DVD burners from Dell are *under* $800, and that's far from the lowest price for such a combo.

Surely this is some enthusiast tax / early adopter penalty, and S3s will be $429 by February or at least Summer '07?

I don't think they'll be dropping the price at all for at LEAST 9 months. Look at the Series 2 DT. it's still just as expensive as when it first came out.

Given that apparently loads of people are buying the S3 (even with the TTG, MRV, requiring 2 CC to record CC and OTA), I doubt they'll feel any pressure to lower the price.

About the only thing that'll probably make the price drop before 9 months is if cable labs says "no" to TTG and MRV (which, IMO, is far more likely than them aproving it).

[headless chicken]

Of course by then we couldl have Cablecard 2.0 and the S3 will be obsolete.

What new features will CableCARD 2.0 introduce that will render S3 obsolete?

[kbohip]

Well, as far as price goes, I can only go by what happened to the price on the HR10-250 and how fast it happened. A lot of people here seem to forget that when it came out the price was $1,000! :eek: I just laughed at that and waited for it to come down. I think (please let me know if I'm wrong) within a year it was down to $699, and a few months later dropped to $500. Of course if you read this forum you could have gotten in on the awesome deal of $199 like I did. This was just a little over a year after it was released!

If I had to guess I'd say the S3 will be around the $400 mark a year from now. All I can go by is how fast the HR10-250 dropped. It's my opinion that the S3 will sell quickly for the first month or so to the Tivo diehards and then lose major traction after that audience has bought them all up. Tivo has a next to impossible job convincing Joe Public that their DVR is that much better than the $10 a month DVR the cable company gives them. My guess is they'll be plenty of S3's in stock and sitting on the shelves in another couple of months.

[Goofball]

What new features will CableCARD 2.0 introduce that will render S3 obsolete?

The main things that CC 2.0 or OCAP are supposed to support that are "killer" apps are 2-way communications allowing for things like push button PPV ordering, cable provided IPG, SDV support and OnDemand ordering support since the system using one of those types of cards can send and receive data from the cable co. Should also make card installations much easier since you should be able to just pop them in and answer a few questions onscreen to have them self activate.

It won't make it obsolete, it just would be nice to have those things available if needed. I personally don't care about or use PPV or OnDemand so it doesn't bother me. The only thing I want to see supported is some way to control SDV from the TiVo so I don't end up missing shows on smaller channels because they have been switched off...

[videojanitor]

Well, as far as price goes, I can only go by what happened to the price on the HR10-250 and how fast it happened. A lot of people here seem to forget that when it came out the price was $1,000! :eek:

And I'm sure many people remember the frenzy around here when that box was released! It was nothing at all like this -- the thing was darned near impossible to get your hands on -- people were camping out on the Circuit City website and continually hitting "reload" on their browser hoping to see it in stock. Then it would show up, and they would all be gone within minutes.

Some people who managed to get them bought as many as they could, then put them on eBay for $1500+ -- and people bought them! Seems like there are enough S3 units to go around, as I am not seeing that kind of craziness this time. Hopefully that means the price will come down a little quicker. I believe your time frame of about 1-year for the HR10-250 to drop to $699 is about right.

[Lenarro]

I for one learned my lesson buying the HR10-250 at $900. I have no business telling Tivo how to run theirs, I am just going to patiently wait for the price I am comfortable with and the kinks to get worked out. I do appreciate all of the people who get one now and help work said kinks. :)

[m_jonis]

Well, as far as price goes, I can only go by what happened to the price on the HR10-250 and how fast it happened. A lot of people here seem to forget that when it came out the price was $1,000! :eek: I just laughed at that and waited for it to come down. I think (please let me know if I'm wrong) within a year it was down to $699, and a few months later dropped to $500. Of course if you read this forum you could have gotten in on the awesome deal of $199 like I did. This was just a little over a year after it was released!

If I had to guess I'd say the S3 will be around the $400 mark a year from now. All I can go by is how fast the HR10-250 dropped. It's my opinion that the S3 will sell quickly for the first month or so to the Tivo diehards and then lose major traction after that audience has bought them all up. Tivo has a next to impossible job convincing Joe Public that their DVR is that much better than the $10 a month DVR the cable company gives them. My guess is they'll be plenty of S3's in stock and sitting on the shelves in another couple of months.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that DirecTV and their Tivo agreement had something to do with the price dropping so fast on that unit.

[bicker]

I haven't been a regular reader of this forum in a long time, but after I got the S3 email from Tivo I thought I'd check in again and was surprised to see how little has changed -- there's still a group of people vociferously arguing that Tivo's functionality/UI is worth *any* premium.I think the biggest different, with this introduction of the S3 versus the introduction of the S2, is that many of us who strongly supported the introduction of the S2, going into great deal about why it was worth it and why it was worth the extra money over the S1, have the completely opposite perspective with regard to the the S3. I forget who said this, but it was brilliant: The S2 was a step ahead of the S1, while the S3 is one step forward and one step back.

[HDTiVo]

I forget who said this, but it was brilliant: The S2 was a step ahead of the S1, while the S3 is one step forward and one step back.
I said that; not sure about the struck out part. It would take the processing power of 37 S3s four days to search it the way things are going.

[MediaLivingRoom]

Systemax has three new Mini PCs in their line of Impact Media Centers. The Core2 Impact VXR2 Media Center has a built-in TV Tuner, and retails for $899


http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/pcs/systemax-releases-new-mini-pc-media-centers-200970.php

[eisenb11]

Systemax has three new Mini PCs in their line of Impact Media Centers. The Core2 Impact VXR2 Media Center has a built-in TV Tuner, and retails for $899


http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/pcs/systemax-releases-new-mini-pc-media-centers-200970.php

Gotta have cablecard though so we can watch our encypted content.

Also may have issues with HD in the future if it's not HDCP compliant.

Right now without a CC installed, my S3 isn't letting me get past channel 99.

[smak]

It's priced too high FOR YOU. It's clearly not priced too high for the market. Given that people are standing in line to give TiVo $800 (and complaining that they can't do so sooner), what kind of idiots would they have to be to actually LOWER the price?

You're right, but nobody cares.

If they hit their sales goals, then it was priced exactly right.

No amount of complaining that nobody will buy one for $800, and Tivo is gouging their customer's can change that.

I work for a retail company. If my company sells a $600 leather coat, there's no way I would ever buy one. (Ok, forget the fact it's womens clothes, i would never buy a $600 coat).

If we sell everyone we make within days, what person in their right mind would say we overpriced it.

It just doesn't make business sense or common sense.

I see ads for $3000-$5000 speakers and more. I think people buying those are crazy and insane. Yet, there still are $3000-$5000 speakers out there.

-smak-

[sommerfeld]

If they hit their sales goals, then it was priced exactly right.
It appears that they vastly underestimated first-week demand at the price point they picked, which means.. they priced it too low!

[HDTiVo]

It appears that they vastly underestimated first-week demand at the price point they picked, which means.. they priced it too low!
Maybe, but where this idea that they've sold out comes from I don't know. They're still available at TiVo.com, several other highly reliable and reputable online retailers, and some stores.

We are now in a situation similar to what they call in the semiconductor business 'double ordering.' There are numerous second S3 TiVoes ordered/bought out of panic and disatisfaction; many of those are going to be returned to be resold (some as refurbs.) In the meantime, there are far less S3s on the "shelves" than otherwise would be, but there certainly are S3s on the shelves.

[classicsat]

My prognostication:

By Spring 07, $649, fall $599

Spring 09, a "cost engineered" model released, selling for the same 599.
Perhaps even a "cost engineered" S2DT released also.

[megazone]

The problem is, once you drop the price you insult and anger the people who were crazy enough to over-pay in the first place.Anyone who is insulted and angry because a product they purchased dropped in price is a big baby. That's NORMAL. If you're not willing to pay the price for something and be happy, you shouldn't buy it - period. It is unusual when the price *doesn't* drop.

*EVERY* TiVo has come out at a price much higher than it eventually sold for. My Treo 650 was hundreds of dollars when I got it - the day Cingular started carrying them. They're much less now, half what I paid or less. I paid *$1700* for my first DVD/CD/LD system. You get DVD players for free in your Cracker Jack these days. If they were any cheaper they'd just include a disposable player with each DVD.

Early adopters know and accept that reality. I know for damn sure that anything i pay for the S3 today will be more than I could pay in six months. I paid over $700 for my DVR-810H, and that was a major discount because I bought from an online reseller. They got down to a couple hundred new at the end.

Frankly I think $800 is fair and reasonable for the product as a launch price. If I didn't think so, I wouldn't be willing to pay it. QED. It may not be fair and reasonable to you, and that's fine. It is subjective. I *know* it includes early adopter tax. TiVo spent $12 million on developing the S3 (they gave that figure in a recent FCC filing). They're going to want to recover that in sales.