Missing the point on price

[dekrieger]

I think many of you are missing the point on price. Anyone who is coming to the board is a Tivo user and most likely a Tivo lover, if that is ok to say. But the $800 just makes it to difficult yo stay with Tivo if you want to enjoy HD. that is the problem.

Many of you are comparing all that Tivo has to offer v the crappy cable service, and I do not think there is one person that will come to this site that will say cable is better or even comparable. But cable is a much cheaper price, and cable is easier, and with cable, I will not spend at least $1,000 and worry that they may go out of business in the next few years because not enough people were willing to pay $800.

And isn't that the crux of this discussion. For all Tivo lovers to continue to enjoy Tivo, Tivo needs to continue to stay in business. Well, if I switch because of price, and you switch because of price, how will any of us continue to enjoy Tivo in the future. that is the real problem.

Tivo is in business, and yes they need to make money, but making a lot of money on a few, v lesser money on a lot, with monthly subscription fees, which do you think will win. I hope Tivo thrives, and I hope the cost becomes reasonable so I can get rid of the cable DVR I just picked up today, but only time will tell.

[eisenb11]

The S3 is a new product. It costs Tivo alot of money to make. New products always cost more at first as Tivo has to pay off the costs of research, design, and initial manufacturing.

When that's done the price drops like a rock... usually in a year or two.

It's not Tivo, it's every new electronic product that goes like this.

The Tivo you buy now for $99 probably cost $500 when it first came out. The S3 is no different.

If you want the S3 now, you have to pay the early adopter price which is high. If you don't want to pay this extra-high price, wait a year or two for prices to come down to normal levels.

Yes, people love their Tivos, but Tivo has to charge a higher price initially - that's how the world works.

[jfh3]

I'm sorry, I've been living with a painfully frustrating iGuide powered Motorola 6412 for the better part of a year.

Not having to deal with the frustration of freezes, missed recordings, insufficient space, frustrating searches and pseuso-season passes is worth a good portion of the $800 I spent for a Series 3

[Turtleboy]

A lot of these people are also relatively new who got super cheap Series 2s. These people live in the land of $50 Series 2 with rebates.

They don't know that the original Tivo that could only record 14 hours cost the same price. They don't know that the HD Tivo for Direct TV cost $1000. They don't care either.

They just like the complain. They want something + It Cost a Price they don't want to pay = It's not fair.

[eisenb11]

True that.

Few people realize that you wouldn't be able to buy 50" plasma TVs right now for $3,000 if it weren't for the people years ago who spent $30,000 on a plasma TV.

Someone has to foot the bill for the S3 so it can *become* affordable.

[jones07]

I for one appreciate those that foot the bill for us nonearly-adopters :p

I'll be back when the land is full of $99 Series 3's after rebates.

[vman41]

I don't complain about the price, my problem is that I was blindsided by the feature exclusions. I expect to replace my S2 with a box that does what the S2 does plus records HD (OTA now with an option for digital cable soon or later). They spent so much effort to convince you that the special thing about TiVo is that it is a peer in your home media network, and what should be the premier product doesn't comply with that vision.

Analog is a dead end. With the cable deals developing, TiVos commitment to the standalone market is a big question.

[tigerflyboy78]

I strongly disagree, I love Tivo as much as anybody here, but I'll be d**** if I'm paying 900 bucks for a new Tivo. I just spent 3500 on a plasma and getting it setup and was ready toadd a new HD tivo to my new setup, but seeing that price..... I hope Tivo realizes most floks that own Tivo do it because they WORK FOR A LIVING!!! I will keep my series 1 box I moved it downstairs and will be going with the new directv HD DVRyeah it may not have all the bells that Tivo does but at 299 an a disocunt for being a loyal customer, and 4.99 a month I haveto say I was greatly surprised with Tivo I expected much better

[Turtleboy]

I strongly disagree, I love Tivo as much as anybody here, but I'll be d**** if I'm paying 900 bucks for a new Tivo. I just spent 3500 on a plasma and getting it setup and was ready toadd a new HD tivo to my new setup, but seeing that price..... I hope Tivo realizes most floks that own Tivo do it because they WORK FOR A LIVING!!! I will keep my series 1 box I moved it downstairs and will be going with the new directv HD DVRyeah it may not have all the bells that Tivo does but at 299 an a disocunt for being a loyal customer, and 4.99 a month I haveto say I was greatly surprised with Tivo I expected much better

What's with the anger??

Are you angry that you can't afford a Ferrari? Did you know that the first Tivo that could only record 14 hours cost almost $1000? Did you know that the HD Tivo for DirectTV cost $1000? Did you know that the first VCRs cost $3000+?

It's a new product, it's new technology, and it's high end. If you can afford it, buy it.

If you can't afford it wait. The price will eventually come down.

I am surprised how many people think that they are entitiled to something for nothing, or at a certain price.

Is it expensive? Yeah. I'm going to wait and save up to buy one.

But this emotional response to the price is just bizzare. It's not like they are gouging you on AIDS medicine or food to feed your family. It's a Tivo for Jebus's sake.

[NOD]

I hope Tivo realizes most floks that own Tivo do it because they WORK FOR A LIVING!!!

well of course they do. How else are ya gonna afford it? :rolleyes:

[lkinley]

First off, it's $799, not $900.

Second, you paid $3500 for a plasma, but you're not willing to pay $799 to feed it properly, with an interface that isn't going to annoy you on a daily basis.

I don't get it. Why spend that much on a TV then? If the thought of $800 is so daunting, why not wait a year longer for the TV and the price drop will pay for the TiVo?

-Lance

[Leo_N]

First off, it's $799, not $900.

Second, you paid $3500 for a plasma, but you're not willing to pay $799 to feed it properly, with an interface that isn't going to annoy you on a daily basis.

I don't get it. Why spend that much on a TV then? If the thought of $800 is so daunting, why not wait a year longer for the TV and the price drop will pay for the TiVo?

-Lance

Hah!! Logic on a thread like this, you'll never get away with it! :D

[albrandwood]

But cable is a much cheaper price, and cable is easier, and with cable, I will not spend at least $1,000 and worry that they may go out of business in the next few years because not enough people were willing to pay $800.

for me, the cable HDTV costs $15 per month instead ... of either $2 or $4 (depending on how cablevision treats the cablecards) ...

My wife prefers the TiVo interface to the SA8300HD, (as do I, but the Wife Appreciation Factor is a more relevent issue) and so we have BOTH an S2 (with seperate cable decoder) and an SA8300HD in the livingroom ... both of which can be replaced with one S3.

The monthly will go down ($7 for TiVo+$4 for the CC as opposed to $7 for TiVo, $5 for cable decoder, $5 for SA8300HD, $10 for DVR Service) ... but with a high upfront cost ... after 4 years ... the savings will be +/-$25 ... not a big deal eitherway, but at least I'll be giving it to TiVo rather than Cablevision.

[albrandwood]

the first Tivo that could only record 14 hours cost almost $1000?

So what? How is this relevent? what are you arguing? that in 99, it cost $71 per hour? as opposed to now, when its $26 per hour? or that in 99 it was 14 hours, now, 7 years later, its upto a whopping 30 hrs capacity??? :-D

EVERYTHING is expensive when it first comes out...

The issue is not the $$$, but the PERCIEVED VALUE.

If you make $10/hr, have a wife, kids, mortgage etc, then $800 is WAY to expensive for what is nothing more than an overpriced hightech VCR ...
if you make $80/hr, and are single, no kids, $80,000 Mercedes, then $800 is pocket change. so of course you are going to buy one ... and use it to watch Survivor in HDTV while sitting on the john...

for everybody who thinks $800 is too expensive, please DONT keep harping on about how $800 is a big issue ... we know inherently that not everyone can afford it ...

for everybody who has no issue with spending $800 on an overpriced CE toy ... stop telling those that can't/won't afford it, that it is worth it ...

In fact, we could probably just delete all posts today, and replace them with 2 simple posts ...

1) $800 ... thats nothing, I'll pay that ... oops ... appears I've already ordered, now thats out of the way, I'm gonna complain about the delivery time because I called my cable company and they came to install the cards before the box arrived, and now they are charging me an extra $20 to come out twice.
2) $800 ... that's way over priced ... I'm gonna tell everyone that I'm switching to Satelite/Fios... not that it will have any affect, cos sure as the world spins, TiVo is NOT going to drop the price significantly between now and Xmas. And I probably won't actually do it, since at the end of the day, there are only 3 programs this week that I would have watched in HD anyway...

/rant off

@

[tigerflyboy78]

and that's where your right it's a tivo not a Mercedes, yes I paid for a nice plasma, and I paid to have it installed. and it took a while to save for that. Unlike some people I work for a living. Anger yes and I have as much right to be angry as you have to buy the over priced recorder. Like I said I choose to go a more reasonable route, and I think Tivo will find that many more customers will do the same. oh and BTW, the S3 does not work with the satellite form what I have read in other forums so I guess this is a mute point anyway

[kbohip]

Quite honestly, at first I thought $800 was too much for the S3. Now I've changed my mind. Why? I have an HR10-250, the REAL first HD-Tivo :p. When it first came out it cost a cool grand! Although I got in on a "special" deal and only paid $200 for it. It didn't have such neat features as front panel organic display or lit remote either.

Yes, $800 is too rich for my blood, even though it's probably worth it. I can wait for the price to go down in a year or so though. By then I'll probably be using the new HR20-700 Directv HD-DVR and I'll be surprised if I'm not ready to go back to Tivo. I'll have to check out the Comcast Tivo box too before I really decide.

[quango]

The bottom line is that the price is driven by what the market will pay. Judging from the hundreds of people who have already bought Series 3's, they think it's worth $800 (or $720 if they used a 10% off coupon). When TiVo sees that sales are declining, they'll either drop the MSRP or start doing rebates; rinse, lather, repeat.

The only other thing that would reduce the price is a real competing product in the marketplace. The other HD DVRs that can record both cable and OTA appear to be either discontinued or at the same price, and are by all accounts radically inferior products. And the Big Cable DVRs, while nominally cheaper if even available, appear to be basically unreliable and can't record OTA broadcasts (which matters to consumers in a lot of markets, like mine, where major networks just aren't on cable in HD).

If there's a better (or at least viable) option for you now, or you can live without a Series 3, nobody is saying you need to plop down $800 when it may be much less in a year. But the market will bear $800 today... and you'll be back when the market will bear what you're willing to pay after spending 6-12 months fighting your CableCo's DVR.

[calitivo]

I'm a bit surprised at the amount of complaints regarding the pricing. Yes, $800 is really expensive, but don't you think that this will be down about $100 as soon as the Amazon's of the world get stock in October. Of course it will, especially if they are really getting it for $500. At that price, I would expect $600 pricing by end of year. Come January and post holiday slump and with enough supply, $500 after rebate pricing is 6 months away, IMO. I can wait.

I personally don't buy into the "they need to recoup costs of development" reason. As a technology company, a certain percent of your costs must be R&D. Tivo knew it had to go HD and spent a long time getting there. Maybe they hired an extra person or few to help the effort, but so it goes and I'm sure it could have been done in less than 2 years. I think the price is simply a matter of them being told by enough people they want HD recording that Tivo has the capability of charing early adopters a lot of money.

What annoys me is the Tivo.com only lifetime transfer situation. Misleading info a few weeks ago I think. I believe they will get enough grief from retail buyers, they will be forced to offer this for everybody until 12/31. It's a win-win from both sides I think.

[smak]

Man, I must be totally insane, but what swear word is d****. I can't figure it out.

The problem with the complainers, is they post like they've been personally insulted by Tivo.

You haven't!

Perceived value is individual. Some people think it's too expensive, some don't.

This is what they're charging. Get over it. It'll be cheaper in the future.

It seems like people are saying that if they don't think it's worth it, Tivo shouldn't have even released it. They should have waited 2 years until it's cheaper to make, and they can sell it for $400.

Get over yourselves.

-smak-

[montivette]

I have read too many of these "it's too much" posts. None have informed me of anything or convinced me that I am an idiot for buying one.

These posts are like a political discussion on a topic such as abortion. It does not matter what is posted or said, nobody is going to convince me that $800 is an insanely high unreasonable price. Nor can I convince the "it's too much" poster that it is really a good deal. Doing either is rather pointless, we are not going to change the others beliefs.

Value and worth is in the eye of the beholder and influenced by a variety of factors. For me this will be the cheapest purchase in my home theater system. I have spent more on cables than I will on a series 3.

Also, if we all want a reality check, add up how much money you spent watching cable/satellite TV in the last year. $500, $1200, $1500? How insane really are we for spending that kind of money to watch a stupid TV? We all need to get a life. At least for $800 with the series 3 you have something physically tangible which can be touched, held for the $800 you spent.

The other day I was shopping at the grocery store in the chip isle and saw a bag of chips cost $3. I am not a big chip buyer (can you say health nut) but I have some people coming over so thought I would by some. But wow, $3 for stupid bag of chips? Then I wondered how much some Tivo forum members spend on chips each year? Then Pop? Booze? Cigarettes? I know some of you easily must spend $800 a year on just one of these things?

I realized in the chip isle I have been too obsessed about the Tivo as I am thinking of the "it's too much" posters while shopping for food!

So for you "it too much" posters all I can say is to stop buying one of these items for a year and your series 3 will be paid for. If you want it bad enough, adjust your expenses and pay the piper.

OK I know I have not convinced you, but I figured I better at least try. :)

[smak]

I have read too many of these "it's too much" posts. None have informed me of anything or convinced me that I am an idiot for buying one.

These posts are like a political discussion on a topic such as abortion. It does not matter what is posted or said, nobody is going to convince me that $800 is an insanely high unreasonable price. Nor can I convince the "it's too much" poster that it is really a good deal. Doing either is rather pointless, we are not going to change the others beliefs.

Value and worth is in the eye of the beholder and influenced by a variety of factors. For me this will be the cheapest purchase in my home theater system. I have spent more on cables than I will on a series 3.

Also, if we all want a reality check, add up how much money you spent watching cable/satellite TV in the last year. $500, $1200, $1500? How insane really are we for spending that kind of money to watch a stupid TV? We all need to get a life. At least for $800 with the series 3 you have something physically tangible which can be touched, held for the $800 you spent.

The other day I was shopping at the grocery store in the chip isle and saw a bag of chips cost $3. I am not a big chip buyer (can you say health nut) but I have some people coming over so thought I would by some. But wow, $3 for stupid bag of chips? Then I wondered how much some Tivo forum members spend on chips each year? Then Pop? Booze? Cigarettes? I know some of you easily must spend $800 a year on just one of these things?

I realized in the chip isle I have been too obsessed about the Tivo as I am thinking of the "it's too much" posters while shopping for food!

So for you "it too much" posters all I can say is to stop buying one of these items for a year and your series 3 will be paid for. If you want it bad enough, adjust your expenses and pay the piper.

OK I know I have not convinced you, but I figured I better at least try. :)

Yah, I would like to comb through everybody's lives who posted a :mad: here today, and find something that I find ridiculous that they pay for.

That would be fun!

-smak-

[GoHokies!]

and that's where your right it's a tivo not a Mercedes, yes I paid for a nice plasma, and I paid to have it installed. and it took a while to save for that. Unlike some people I work for a living. Anger yes and I have as much right to be angry as you have to buy the over priced recorder. Like I said I choose to go a more reasonable route, and I think Tivo will find that many more customers will do the same. oh and BTW, the S3 does not work with the satellite form what I have read in other forums so I guess this is a mute point anyway

You're a damned idiot.... I think that all of us work for a living here, gotta pay the bills somehow, you know...

You really have no right to be angry because an expensive piece of home theater equipment costs a lot of money - were you angry that your Plasma cost $3500? Epecially since you're not even able to use it anyway, since you use sattelite (which you don't need to go to forums to learn, the S3 is supposed to be a CABLE BOX replacement, which is why is uses CABLE CARDS - anyone else that expected it work with Dish or whomever joins you in the "damned idiot" category).

You sound just like my 3 year old throwing a temper tantrum, except when I tell him to go sit on the stairs until he can act like a big boy, he listens to me and settles down...

[classicX]

I don't think Tivo is in much danger of going out of business anytime soon, with the deals they are making (such as Comcast, DirecTV, and I believe Cox now).

Only time will tell if people are willing to pay slightly more per month for the Tivo UI versus the standard one. I would gladly pay $5 per month per box for the Tivo UI.

[tunnelengineer]

and that's where your right it's a tivo not a Mercedes, yes I paid for a nice plasma, and I paid to have it installed. and it took a while to save for that. Unlike some people I work for a living. Anger yes and I have as much right to be angry as you have to buy the over priced recorder. Like I said I choose to go a more reasonable route, and I think Tivo will find that many more customers will do the same. oh and BTW, the S3 does not work with the satellite form what I have read in other forums so I guess this is a mute point anyway

Where to begin..........

1) If you are using satellite, the S3 isn't for you. Never was intented to and Tivo has said this for months. You already have an HD Tivo that cost $1000 when new. This product is for Cable customers.

2) I've got a LCOS HDTV that I paid $2k for a year ago. With the $800 fee for tiv S3 I will still be cheaper than your plasma. It's all a matter of choice...

3) It "moot point", not "mute".

4) I work for a living too. I really don't understand what the point of that comment was. Because I work I can pay for some perks, like an HDTV and S3 Tivo.......

[Stormspace]

I don't complain about the price, my problem is that I was blindsided by the feature exclusions. I expect to replace my S2 with a box that does what the S2 does plus records HD (OTA now with an option for digital cable soon or later). They spent so much effort to convince you that the special thing about TiVo is that it is a peer in your home media network, and what should be the premier product doesn't comply with that vision.

Analog is a dead end. With the cable deals developing, TiVos commitment to the standalone market is a big question.

+1

While the price is hard to swallow, the lack of features was a real slap in the face to me, especially when me and my family rely on those so much.

[Stormspace]

First off, it's $799, not $900.

Second, you paid $3500 for a plasma, but you're not willing to pay $799 to feed it properly, with an interface that isn't going to annoy you on a daily basis.

I don't get it. Why spend that much on a TV then? If the thought of $800 is so daunting, why not wait a year longer for the TV and the price drop will pay for the TiVo?

-Lance

When I bought my HDTV it wasn't with the thought that I'd be paying 800 dollars to feed it. It was more along the lines of 300-500 dollars, so that's how I based my budget for television. Additionally I planned to replace one of my S2's with the S3, but at present the limited feature set precludes that option.

[Gregor]

MRV and TTG are nice to haves, but not dealbreakers for me. I'm so tired of the crappy Moto interface and it's outstanding bug list and missing recordings that I'm very happy to kick it to the curb.

[eisenb11]

and that's where your right it's a tivo not a Mercedes,

If Tivo were a car company, the S3 would be their Mercedes.

Let's look at Sony for example. You can buy a 50" Sony plasma for $4,500... or you can get a 50" Sony Qualia plasma for $20,000. Is it not fair because their upper line is more expensive?

You're supposed to buy what you can afford. If you can't afford it, wait for the price to come down or don't buy it. No need to ruin your credit rating over a Tivo.

yes I paid for a nice plasma, and I paid to have it installed. and it took a while to save for that.

Well, good... now continue saving for the S3 if you want one. Why is it ok to save for the plasma and not for the S3?

Unlike some people I work for a living.

And you think all of us who bought the S3 for $800 don't work for living? Where did you think we get the money? From the money tree?

We work for a living too... and have bills, and rent/mortages, and familiar, car payments, etc, etc...

Anger yes and I have as much right to be angry as you have to buy the over priced recorder.

You have the right to be angry, and we have the right to think you're acting silly. I want a Ferrari Enzo... for $50,000... should I be mad that they sell for $1Million... no, ofcourse not.

Like I said I choose to go a more reasonable route, and I think Tivo will find that many more customers will do the same.

I don't think Tivo really has a lot at stake with the S3. I think they're producing it as a show piece. Tivo makes their money from service, they're not primarily a hardware sales company. If current events are any indication Tivo's goal is to operate primarily in conjunction with Cable and Satellite providers through the original equipment. The S3 is for a niche market.

oh and BTW, the S3 does not work with the satellite form what I have read in other forums so I guess this is a mute point anyway

And it took you this long to realize that? The whole point of the S3 is that it uses CABLECARDS!!! Cablecards... as in for... CABLE.

There are already Tivos that do HD over Satellite, the S3 was to cover the digital cable market that Tivo hadn't yet tapped.

[HDTiVo]

For all Tivo lovers to continue to enjoy Tivo, Tivo needs to continue to stay in business. Well, if I switch because of price, and you switch because of price, how will any of us continue to enjoy Tivo in the future. that is the real problem.

Tivo is in business, and yes they need to make money, but making a lot of money on a few, v lesser money on a lot, with monthly subscription fees, which do you think will win.
TiVo is far better off with many subscribers at lower price.

If TiVo does not drive volume with price reductions promptly after getting some intital pent up sales, I will be disappointed.

[doormat]

I've come up with the following compromise...

I'll buy a S3 TiVo when
1. TiVo enables any two of the following three: eSATA, MRV, TTG
2. The price (including any rebate) falls below $599.

I'm hoping this happens early next year (by the end of March). But who knows. I've got my target and I'll wait for it.

[bicker]

It costs Tivo alot of money to make. That factors into whether or not TiVo should have pursued this product offering. It has no impact on whether a customer wishes to buy it.

New products always cost more at first as Tivo has to pay off the costs of research, design, and initial manufacturing.No. The costs of R&D are amortized over a number of years. You don't have your early adopters cover your costs of R&D.

The issue here isn't that the S3 is expensive, or even more expensive than it will be next year, but rather that it is more expensive than it is worth, in the minds of many people. It looks like TiVo took your advice and is trying to keep their company liquid by getting early adopters of the S3 to invest in the company without gaining equity stake. :rolleyes:

[sommerfeld]

No. The costs of R&D are amortized over a number of years. You don't have your early adopters cover your costs of R&D.

to regurgitate something I learned in an economics course ~20 years ago: "in an efficient market at equilibrium, price equals marginal cost" -- your profit margin goes to zero if you're selling commodity widgets exactly like the next guy.

In an innovation-driven market, the best way for you to make a profit is to keep disturbing the equilibrium by introducing better mousetraps than the other guy.

While you have a unique or best-in-class product you can afford to charge a premium for it. Large margins will attract competitors who will seek to undercut you - a little, so they can get some of the premiums for themselves. Over time, initially high margins will decay as competitors emerge.

Plot (unit price * unit volume) vs time and guess what, the early adopters end up paying for the fixed costs including R&D..

As long as demand for the S3 remains high, they're not going to be dropping the price by much.
If demand flags or a competitor appears, then things start to get interesting for us consumers..

[Stormspace]

to regurgitate something I learned in an economics course ~20 years ago: "in an efficient market at equilibrium, price equals marginal cost" -- your profit margin goes to zero if you're selling commodity widgets exactly like the next guy.

In an innovation-driven market, the best way for you to make a profit is to keep disturbing the equilibrium by introducing better mousetraps than the other guy.

While you have a unique or best-in-class product you can afford to charge a premium for it. Large margins will attract competitors who will seek to undercut you - a little, so they can get some of the premiums for themselves. Over time, initially high margins will decay as competitors emerge.

Plot (unit price * unit volume) vs time and guess what, the early adopters end up paying for the fixed costs including R&D..

As long as demand for the S3 remains high, they're not going to be dropping the price by much.
If demand flags or a competitor appears, then things start to get interesting for us consumers..

They already have a competitor and it's been spanking them for the past two years. The series 3 doesn't offer anything substantial to lure the adverage cable user away from the cable DVR. TiVo itself admits that the HMO options are only used by technologically savvy people and aside from those options most people aren't going to spend 800 dollars on a better interface.

[MichaelK]

did anyone notice the threads that tivo was completely caught off gaurd with the sales volume at their website and missed the quoted ship date for a pile of orders?

clearly 800 is not a problem RIGHT NOW.

Maybe come monday demand drops like a rock- so they just allow the $150 rebate to apply- boom instant price drop to $650 and another wave of buyers. (I duobt it becasue I dont think demand will drop for a few months at least, but if it did drop they could quickly respond....)

[Stormspace]

did anyone notice the threads that tivo was completely caught off gaurd with the sales volume at their website and missed the quoted ship date for a pile of orders?

clearly 800 is not a problem RIGHT NOW.

Maybe come monday demand drops like a rock- so they just allow the $150 rebate to apply- boom instant price drop to $650 and another wave of buyers. (I duobt it becasue I dont think demand will drop for a few months at least, but if it did drop they could quickly respond....)

Even if only 5% of the current TiVo subscribers bite that's a sustantial number of units. Doesn't surprise me that they were caught off guard but I bet that it's logistics and not supply that's causing the problem.

[vman41]

Even if only 5% of the current TiVo subscribers bite that's a sustantial number of units. Doesn't surprise me that they were caught off guard but I bet that it's logistics and not supply that's causing the problem.

I agree, the delay would be a lot longer than 1 day if they were out of inventory.

[eisenb11]

That factors into whether or not TiVo should have pursued this product offering. It has no impact on whether a customer wishes to buy it.

Profit is what determines if Tivo should follow the pursuit. Not the cost to manufacture. Who cares if it costs $10,000 to make a S3... if Tivo can sell them for $12,000 and maintain a path towards long-term profit then it is worth it to Tivo.

You imply that something must be cheap to be profitable. That's not the case.

No. The costs of R&D are amortized over a number of years. You don't have your early adopters cover your costs of R&D.

Oh really? When the Marantz PD5010D 50" plasma first came out it retails for around $20,000. Fast forward a few years and the new PD5060D now sells for around $7,000.

Did Marantz drop it out of the goodness of their own hearts? Heck no. What you're seeing is the drop in cost of 50" panels because the guys that paid $20,000 helped to pay off the initial R&D/dev costs as well as the cost of buying fabs. On top of that those guys also paid to cover the initial high defect rates that were eliminated over time through process and engineering improvements to increase production yeild and minimize production defects.

The role of early adopters is common knowledge, I don't know where you're getting your information from.

For perfect examples of this, refer to the CD players, the DVD player, VHS, and the computer processor industry as examples.

The issue here isn't that the S3 is expensive, or even more expensive than it will be next year, but rather that it is more expensive than it is worth, in the minds of many people. It looks like TiVo took your advice and is trying to keep their company liquid by getting early adopters of the S3 to invest in the company without gaining equity stake. :rolleyes:

It's more expensive than it's worth... to YOU. Not to everyone. In time, the price will come down and it will start becoming "worth it" to more and more people.

Now, I'm going to contradict myself a little bit because there is another interesting possibility here. It's possible that the S3 was never intended to make money in itself in the first place. Maybe the S3 was developed so Tivo could fund the development of HD cable software... for use in other MSOs' cable boxes?

The hardware in the S3 is very similar to the hardware in, say, and Comcast HD DVR... if the S3 were designed for funding and never intended for general consumers that could also explain the high price.

Either way though, the role of early adopters in either plan is obvious.

[MickeS]

I strongly disagree, I love Tivo as much as anybody here, but I'll be d**** if I'm paying 900 bucks for a new Tivo. I just spent 3500 on a plasma and getting it setup and was ready toadd a new HD tivo to my new setup, but seeing that price..... I hope Tivo realizes most floks that own Tivo do it because they WORK FOR A LIVING!!! I will keep my series 1 box I moved it downstairs and will be going with the new directv HD DVRyeah it may not have all the bells that Tivo does but at 299 an a disocunt for being a loyal customer, and 4.99 a month I haveto say I was greatly surprised with Tivo I expected much better

$3500 for a plasma, you're CRAZY... they can be had for much less than that!

[MickeS]

Man, I must be totally insane, but what swear word is d****. I can't figure it out.


:D I was thinking the same thing... closest I got was "damnd"?

[eisenb11]

$3500 for a plasma, you're CRAZY... they can be had for much less than that!

If it's new he either bought a high-end 42" plasma or a low-end 50" plasma, most likely.

[msu2k]

The bottom line is that the price is driven by what the market will pay. Judging from the hundreds of people who have already bought Series 3's, they think it's worth $800 (or $720 if they used a 10% off coupon). When TiVo sees that sales are declining, they'll either drop the MSRP or start doing rebates; rinse, lather, repeat.

The only other thing that would reduce the price is a real competing product in the marketplace. The other HD DVRs that can record both cable and OTA appear to be either discontinued or at the same price, and are by all accounts radically inferior products. And the Big Cable DVRs, while nominally cheaper if even available, appear to be basically unreliable and can't record OTA broadcasts (which matters to consumers in a lot of markets, like mine, where major networks just aren't on cable in HD).

If there's a better (or at least viable) option for you now, or you can live without a Series 3, nobody is saying you need to plop down $800 when it may be much less in a year. But the market will bear $800 today... and you'll be back when the market will bear what you're willing to pay after spending 6-12 months fighting your CableCo's DVR.
Exactly. Best post of the thread.

(course I paid less than $600 for it after coupons and 10% off at Best Buy)

[MickeS]

If it's new he either bought a high-end 42" plasma or a low-end 50" plasma, most likely.

My low-end 50 inch plasma was $1900... he could have bought that and still had money for 2 Series 3. :)

[eisenb11]

Haha true, didn't know 50's got that cheap lol

I'm using a 50 plasma as well, but on the opposite end of the spectrum... (ouch)

[HDTiVo]

The issue here isn't that the S3 is expensive, or even more expensive than it will be next year, but rather that it is more expensive than it is worth, in the minds of many people.
What about that is an issue?

[charlesd81]

I don't really see what else needs to be said on this topic. It is a matter of opinion. If you have the money and you want it get it. If you don't wait. People seem to want to try and justify why it is worth $800 and make people understand what is right. It is really only up to the individual who will be buying it.

[bicker]

to regurgitate something I learned in an economics course ~20 years ago: "in an efficient market at equilibrium, price equals marginal cost" -- your profit margin goes to zero if you're selling commodity widgets exactly like the next guy.That actually isn't the case in reality. There are no perfect markets, and everyone know how to apply value-based pricing now.

As long as demand for the S3 remains high...You are assuming facts not in evidence.

[bicker]

Profit is what determines if Tivo should follow the pursuit. Not the cost to manufacture. Who cares if it costs $10,000 to make a S3... if Tivo can sell them for $12,000 and maintain a path towards long-term profit then it is worth it to Tivo. You imply that something must be cheap to be profitable.No I don't. :rolleyes: Rather, I imply that the S3 is too expensive for what it delivers, for many of the folks who are discussing this. From the perspective of those folks, S3 is violating value-based pricing, being priced higher than what it is worth. That is the case.

The role of early adopters is common knowledge, I don't know where you're getting your information from.Years of industry experience. Your penchant for misinterpreting or distorting "my information" has been pretty well-established.

It's more expensive than it's worth... to YOU.Duh. That's what I said: "The issue here isn't that the S3 is expensive, or even more expensive than it will be next year, but rather that it is more expensive than it is worth, in the minds of many people."

[Stormspace]

That actually isn't the case in reality. There are no perfect markets, and everyone know how to apply value-based pricing now.

You are assuming facts not in evidence.

Yes, all we know right now is that demand is greater than TiVo's ability to ship.

[Stormspace]

No I don't. :rolleyes: Rather, I imply that the S3 is too expensive for what it delivers, for many of the folks who are discussing this. From the perspective of those folks, S3 is violating value-based pricing, being priced higher than what it is worth. That is the case.

Years of industry experience. Your penchant for misinterpreting or distorting "my information" has been pretty well-established.

Duh. That's what I said: "The issue here isn't that the S3 is expensive, or even more expensive than it will be next year, but rather that it is more expensive than it is worth, in the minds of many people."

If you think about it just a little all the furor over the price of the S3 is solely TiVo's fault. Over the past 8 years they have managed to deliver a product that does a good job while at the same time adding value to that product with software updates and lower prices. In the past two years alone they've managed to increase subscription numbers with bundled pricing and the new S2DT. IN essence they've built up an expectation that the S3 will be both affordable and include the same features just as is present in earlier products. That turned out to not be the case as the new product is both unaffordable to the vast majority of people and lacks core features present in earlier versions. Everyone added in the past two years with HMO for free and reasonable pricing is disappointed and frustrated. All the wait has been for nothing in the minds of a lot of people. Sure the hold outs with Series 1's are completely happy because it has an extra tuner and does HD, but for those recently introduced to TiVo it's a shock.

[sommerfeld]

That actually isn't the case in reality.
I think you misunderstood what I wrote. Very few real-world markets get anywhere near equilibrium specifically *because* its hard to make a profit in a market at equilibrium.

[eisenb11]

No I don't. :rolleyes: Rather, I imply that the S3 is too expensive for what it delivers, for many of the folks who are discussing this. From the perspective of those folks, S3 is violating value-based pricing, being priced higher than what it is worth. That is the case.

If it's too expensive for what it delivers then don't buy it and stop complaining.

There are tons of products out there that people consider too expensive for what they deliver and they do fine in the market.

My favorites are products from Audio Request (ARQ products) and Escient. They're very expensive for when they deliver but they're all successful. Runco is ludicrously expensive for what they deliver and they're doing just fine as well.

Obviously enough people think the price is ok for what those companies deliver. We'll see if the same holds true for the S3 and so far things are looking pretty good.

Years of industry experience. Your penchant for misinterpreting or distorting "my information" has been pretty well-established.

No offense, but it's hard to misinterpret non-sense. Apparently you don't believe in economics, supply and demand, and the importance of early adopters in high tech industries. Years of experience gained hiding under a rock doesn't really count! :D

Duh. That's what I said: "The issue here isn't that the S3 is expensive, or even more expensive than it will be next year, but rather that it is more expensive than it is worth, in the minds of many people."

"Many" is a worthless description. If 10,000,000 people think the S3 is over priced but 1,000,000,000 people still buy it then, while it's still many, it doesn't matter.

No one really knows the strategy behind the S3 except for Tivo. I'm willing to assume they know what they're doing... they are a massive company that's been around playing this game for a while, after all. I think you're over-simplifying the issue.

[smak]

Rather, I imply that the S3 is too expensive for what it delivers, for many of the folks who are discussing this. From the perspective of those folks, S3 is violating value-based pricing, being priced higher than what it is worth. That is the case.


Hypothetical question. If Tivo has 10,000 of these ready to sell, and by this Sunday sells all 10,000 at $800 are you still right that it's too expensive for what it delivers?

The fact is, however many Tivo sells will be the judge of whether it's too expensive or not.

What you think, and what I think is irrelevant to anybody but ourselves.

-smak-

[ginolee]

I think my first Tivo cost me $500 when it first came out and could record 14 hours of programming.

As soon as I get the TIVO series 3 that I ordered this past Tuesday, I am eagerly looking forward to returning my scientific atlanta 8300HD DVR.

The SA 8300HD dvr worked but the software was awkward and clumsy to work with. After a while, it just got annoying to use. Granted, it basically worked, in that it was able to record 2 HD programs simultaneously. But the ease of use and functioning is just not there.

I don't know why SA decided to write their own crappy (IMHO) software to do what Tivo does so well. That's a real mystery to me, offering 3rd rate software on what seems to be an otherwise 1st rate hardware product..

Anyways, I digress. For me, Tivo is a welcome luxury. Tivo is not food nor water nor shelter against the storm, but man does not live for food and water alone.

[larpar]

Why does the new HD Tivo not work with Satellite. Been waiting along time for it to come out, only to be very disapointed. My old Tivo work great with both cable & Dish Network. Tivo is forcing me to go the the Dish's DVR

[Dieds]

I think the TiVo folks should take a hit on the price for dedicated TiVo users. Microsoft did this for Xbox and still does with the Xbox 360. They want market share.

In addition, I have two Series 2 boxes that just sit on a shelf in the closet. Yes, I have Comcast and they have a DVR that works OK but of course is not TiVo.

I would prefer to get the TiVo series 3 but not for $800? :down:

How about it, TiVo... let us trade in our Series 2s (which you can then refurb and donate to charity or whatever) and let us be your evangelists. Knock a couple hundred off the price for us.

Also, how about hammering out some partnerships with Sony, Toshiba... HDTV makers that have sets with digital turners (so no cable box is required). How hard can this be? It's a no-brainer for both sides -- you both win and best of all, so do your customers. :)

Your alliance team stinks. Fire them and get some people onboard who can get the job done -- next time before you release the product. :cool:

[Dieds]

What will TiVo charge for the HD-DVD (or Blu-Ray if that format wins the battle) units -- $1,200? I know that question is premature, but WOW -- if the Series 3 is already this expensive.... :eek:

[Dieds]

First off, it's $799, not $900.

Second, you paid $3500 for a plasma, but you're not willing to pay $799 to feed it properly, with an interface that isn't going to annoy you on a daily basis.

I don't get it. Why spend that much on a TV then? If the thought of $800 is so daunting, why not wait a year longer for the TV and the price drop will pay for the TiVo?

-Lance


Dude, wake up. You can buy an LCD HDTV for $799 these days. :D Welcome to 2006.

[Turtleboy]

Why does the new HD Tivo not work with Satellite. Been waiting along time for it to come out, only to be very disapointed. My old Tivo work great with both cable & Dish Network. Tivo is forcing me to go the the Dish's DVR

Because it's a Cable Card product. Why are so many people so surprised?

[rainwater]

Because it's a Cable Card product.

And OTA :)

Of course those two have open standards unlike satellite. TiVo can't perform magic and record a HD signal off of a propriatary signal. Hasn't it been known for about a year that the S3 couldn't work with satellite?

[smak]

Dude, wake up. You can buy an LCD HDTV for $799 these days. :D Welcome to 2006.

Yet some people pay $3000 for an LCD HDTV, and some people pay $7000 for an LCD HDTV.

Why would they do this when there's one out there for $799.

-smak-

[bicker]

I think you misunderstood what I wrote. Very few real-world markets get anywhere near equilibrium specifically *because* its hard to make a profit in a market at equilibrium.You are correct on two accounts: I did misunderstood what you wrote, and you're right about why markets don't operate at equilibrium.

[bicker]

If it's too expensive for what it delivers then don't buy it and stop complaining.Uh -- no. :rolleyes:

No offense, but it's hard to misinterpret non-sense.Actually, what appears to be easy for you is labeling anything you disagree with as "non-sense" or when that doesn't work, telling people to stop writing what you don't want them to write.

Apparently you don't believe in economics, supply and demand, and the importance of early adopters in high tech industries.I actually have taught Economics. On another website, regarding a different issue, I'm constantly making the point about how a company (in that case Disney) must provide what its customers in general want, rather than what a small niche wants. That's economics.

Years of experience gained hiding under a rock doesn't really count! :DAnd rudeness doesn't make any of your points hold any more water. You might have some points to make, but your demeanor pretty much undercuts any credibility you might have.

"Many" is a worthless description.Why? Because you don't feel like working hard enough to argue against what I'm actually saying? Is that why you're arguing against things I haven't said? :rolleyes:

No one really knows the strategy behind the S3 except for Tivo. I'm willing to assume they know what they're doing... they are a massive company that's been around playing this game for a while, after all. I think you're over-simplifying the issue.Here I think we've identified the problem with your logic. First, an aside. I often use this argument in the discussions on the Disney boards. Disney is a world-class company, in a very strong position, so if they're making certain business decisions, then the basic assumption that they're the right decisions is almost unassailable.

That doesn't work here. TiVo is not Disney.

TiVo is not "a massive company" -- if you actually believe that, then you're completely out of touch. TiVo's market capitalization is right around $300 million. That's a small business in this country, not even a medium-sized business. (Medium-sized businesses start at about $500 million.)

What's worse, TiVo is a company that has been, financially, on the ropes, at least as far back as my financial service's data goes. Unlike a company like Disney, for example, TiVo don't have the option of looking at a business opportunity and simply deciding not to go after it, because they don't see the way to profitability. TiVo has to pursue marketing this DVR. There is no TiVo without that. It is very likely that their "strategy" is to do the best they can, and hope for the best.

So TiVo may have no choice, given their difficult circumstances, but to make the decisions they're making, even if they're not good decisions. I also work for a small company, and I've seen such "not good" decisions made, not because people didn't know better, but solely because no other decisions were viable.

[HDTiVo]

It would all make so much sense if bicker divided his comments into the very short term - a few weeks - and the short term, the next few months.

[rdowty]

If the price were about $400 or a little more and had a built in DVD player I probably would have bought one already but at twice that plus the fee's I'll probably wait. A Vista PC might cost $400-500 more but I will probably go that route because of the advantages of having a full PC.

The main advantages for a PC for me would be this:
No monthly fee
FM radio
DVD player
One remote for Radio and DVD, also one HDMI cable to the wiring closet, possibilty of whole house distribution with one HDMI hub
possibilty of cheap HD DVD later (Xbox units said to be $200 and possibly hackable)
easy to upgrade harddrives
assuming no flag easy to move files to laptop and maybe archive to DVD
possible to upgrade tuner later to cablecard 2.0 or whatever
backup for laptop if it has to be repaired
aslo can be used for ligitimate content from web like abc.com or to display content from torrents


I don't own a high def set yet. I want a LCD and I've waited this long I might as well hold out for 1080p. I guess I'll be sticking with my Series2 DT for a bit longer.

[headless chicken]

. IN essence they've built up an expectation that the S3 will be both affordable and include the same features just as is present in earlier products. That turned out to not be the case as the new product is both unaffordable to the vast majority of people and lacks core features present in earlier versions.

You hit the nail on the head. That's exactly why I'm both frustrated and disappointed with TiVo.

[larpar]

I have spoken to Tivo at least twice before the Series 3 was released and both times I was told it would work with Satellite. So where this info was that you are all talking about that it would only work with cable is news to me. Tivo has made a big mistake. They are losing their market share to other DVR's. They are going to lose the battle. They somehow need to make a deal with Dish. I hate losing Tivo, but they are giving me no choice.

[HDTiVo]

I have spoken to Tivo at least twice before the Series 3 was released and both times I was told it would work with Satellite.
No, you were told it would work ON A Satellite - provided you had a long enough cable.

[SpankyInChicago]

I think many of you are missing the point on price. Anyone who is coming to the board is a Tivo user and most likely a Tivo lover, if that is ok to say. But the $800 just makes it to difficult yo stay with Tivo if you want to enjoy HD. that is the problem.

Many of you are comparing all that Tivo has to offer v the crappy cable service, and I do not think there is one person that will come to this site that will say cable is better or even comparable. But cable is a much cheaper price, and cable is easier, and with cable, I will not spend at least $1,000 and worry that they may go out of business in the next few years because not enough people were willing to pay $800.

And isn't that the crux of this discussion. For all Tivo lovers to continue to enjoy Tivo, Tivo needs to continue to stay in business. Well, if I switch because of price, and you switch because of price, how will any of us continue to enjoy Tivo in the future. that is the real problem.

Tivo is in business, and yes they need to make money, but making a lot of money on a few, v lesser money on a lot, with monthly subscription fees, which do you think will win. I hope Tivo thrives, and I hope the cost becomes reasonable so I can get rid of the cable DVR I just picked up today, but only time will tell.

I love Tivo, but the Series 3 has finalized their fate. They will be out of the box business inside of three years. The Series 3 will fail. Price for what you get is outrageous. Sure, I bought three HR10-250s, but that was when there was no other option. Is the Tivo UI worth $800 cash upfront plus $13 a month for life vs. $10 a month from cable with no upfront? No. The no MRV & TTG is what the real killer for them is.

Tivo may be around in three years, but if they are it will only be as a software company selling to cable companies. But more likely they will fold up shop and have their assets bought by a cable company or Apple on the cheap.

Sorry, folks, I love Tivo, but the S3 just about means you can stick a fork in them. They are done.

[zalusky]

You sound like one of those day traders on the finance message boards.
Microsoft gonna kill it. Stocks gonna drop like a rock. Get out now. Blah Blah Blah.

[eisenb11]

Edit: I apologize for the length of this post... didn't see how long it was until I was done!

Actually, what appears to be easy for you is labeling anything you disagree with as "non-sense" or when that doesn't work, telling people to stop writing what you don't want them to write.

Ironic isn't it that you keep labeling me as someone who labels others. I didn't say stop writing, I asked that you stop complaining... big difference!

I actually have taught Economics. On another website, regarding a different issue, I'm constantly making the point about how a company (in that case Disney) must provide what its customers in general want, rather than what a small niche wants. That's economics.

Taught... as in a school... or are you referring to these other websites? If the latter, I'd hardly consider that teaching - more like arguing in forums (like we are now) - this definately isn't "teaching".

I agree with you generally on the point made in this paragraph of yours, but I disagree in that a mass market oriented company can still produce niche products. Sony does it, check out their Qualia line. Denon, Pioneer, etc they all have niche products and those are massive companies.

And rudeness doesn't make any of your points hold any more water. You might have some points to make, but your demeanor pretty much undercuts any credibility you might have.

Apparently you have no concept of what --> :D <-- that emotical means. I was making a joke and even put the super-smiley emote next to it to make it obvious. You're getting all bent out of shape over nothing.

Why? Because you don't feel like working hard enough to argue against what I'm actually saying? Is that why you're arguing against things I haven't said? :rolleyes:

You did it again. You quoted one sentence than skipped everything after that. If you had continued reading, I explained why "many", in itself, is not an adequate descriptor. Read what I posted again... and read past the sentence that you quoted and see if it makes more sense.

Here I think we've identified the problem with your logic. First, an aside. I often use this argument in the discussions on the Disney boards. Disney is a world-class company, in a very strong position, so if they're making certain business decisions, then the basic assumption that they're the right decisions is almost unassailable.

I'll agree with that, but that's not the point I was making. I didn't say Tivo was unssailable. I said that there is probably a lot more Tivo's business strategy than the oversimplification that you've been bringing up.

That doesn't work here. TiVo is not Disney.

No they're not... and they're in a different market with a different playing field. Tivo is an electronics company, Disney is not. Tivo makes their bread and butter from recurring monthly subscriptions... Disney does not. Apples and oranges.

TiVo is not "a massive company" -- if you actually believe that, then you're completely out of touch. TiVo's market capitalization is right around $300 million. That's a small business in this country, not even a medium-sized business. (Medium-sized businesses start at about $500 million.)

And I never claimed they were. Their market cap being less than $500M has no bearing on business strategy. Again, I believe you over-simplify.

What's worse, TiVo is a company that has been, financially, on the ropes, at least as far back as my financial service's data goes. Unlike a company like Disney, for example, TiVo don't have the option of looking at a business opportunity and simply deciding not to go after it, because they don't see the way to profitability. TiVo has to pursue marketing this DVR. There is no TiVo without that. It is very likely that their "strategy" is to do the best they can, and hope for the best.

This is probably the heart of where we disagree. You believe the S3 is impertenant to Tivo's future longevity. I do too, but through an indirect manner.

The S3 *will* make a profit. I think that's a given. Tivo is milking the early adopters right now. Later they'll drop the price a bit, milk more customers, rinse and repeat (just like every other Tivo product ever released).

As for importance, though... Tivo's bread and butter is the SDTV market place. Most of the country is equipped with this and so are most of Tivo's subscribers.

As time goes on the percentage of HDTV customers will increase. In this regard, I think Tivo's future strategy involves integration of their software onto third party DVRs (like the Comcast deal).

The S3 is a stepping stone. Even though I bought one, I don't believe there is long term (i.e. more than 2-4 years) of viability in this product. The S3 is paving the way for Comcast integration... or it could be the other way around where it is using code gained during Comcast integration.

Either way, the S3 is a stepping stone to CC 2.0 devices. CC 1.0 and CC 1.0+ are limited enough that I wouldn't consider them viable for the general consumer - we need CC 2.0 to take care of that.

So TiVo may have no choice, given their difficult circumstances, but to make the decisions they're making, even if they're not good decisions. I also work for a small company, and I've seen such "not good" decisions made, not because people didn't know better, but solely because no other decisions were viable.

I've seen and worked for many companies as well that have made stupid decisions... companies much smaller and much larger than Tivo.

I don't know if they made a good decision or if they made a bad decision. Realistically unless you're in Tivo finance neither do you.

My point, again, was that business plans (good and bad ones) are not always as simple as "lower the price so it's barely above margin and sell a whole bunch of them". Plans can get a lot more complicated than that.

BTW, I work as part of the oversight of a multi-billion dollar electronics company. Business strategy is rarely straight forward and there is a lot of co-dependance across product lines where a product may, for example, only be successful pending seperate, but related products.

Things like this can make things very interesting because a product, itself, can be a loss yet still contribute to a net gain for the company because of other factors external to that one single product.

[HDTiVo]

One little email from TiVo frees the mind.

[Mxmoney]

I don't complain about the price, my problem is that I was blindsided by the feature exclusions. I expect to replace my S2 with a box that does what the S2 does plus records HD (OTA now with an option for digital cable soon or later). They spent so much effort to convince you that the special thing about TiVo is that it is a peer in your home media network, and what should be the premier product doesn't comply with that vision.

Analog is a dead end. With the cable deals developing, TiVos commitment to the standalone market is a big question.

Well said.

[bicker]

I didn't say stop writing, I asked that you stop complaining... big difference!And equally without merit.

Taught... as in a school... or are you referring to these other websites?I was an instructor at a university. However, I could have taught it to pigs at a pig farm and the concepts would still be the same.

I agree with you generally on the point made in this paragraph of yours, but I disagree in that a mass market oriented company can still produce niche products. Sony does it, check out their Qualia line. Denon, Pioneer, etc they all have niche products and those are massive companies.I never said that companies cannot make money selling niche products. What I said was that I believe that TiVo, however, won't succeed in doing so. It is much harder to make money on niche products, because you have to inflate the price so much more to turn a profit. TiVo is a small company and, compared to Pioneer and Sony, simply cannot withstand the ramifications of that risk doesn't pay off.

I was making a joke and even put the super-smiley emote next to it to make it obvious.Rudeness to someone else is never funny. It's selfish, self-amusement. If you want to be rude, as part of a joke, be self-deprecating -- be rude to yourself. That actually is typically considered funny.

And I never claimed they were.Now you're just-plain-lying: You called TiVo a massive company. They're not. They're a small company. You were wrong. And that has a big impact on the point here.

The S3 *will* make a profit. I think that's a given.It isn't a given. TiVo will make a profit on the hardware, at this price, but they still have an obligation to provide service -- that's a liability that they'll carry. If they don't make enough money on subscriptions, then they'll continue to lose money overall. The only way to make money on subscriptions is to have lots of subscribers, since the cost of servicing subscriptions is pretty flat. A niche machine won't help them overcome the losses they've been incurring year-after-year, on their S1/S2 business.

Tivo is milking the early adopters right now. Later they'll drop the price a bit, milk more customers, rinse and repeat (just like every other Tivo product ever released).If this was just like the introduction of the S2, then we wouldn't be having this discussion. There were a few (a very few) people who objected to the prices for the original S2s. The vast majority, overwhelming majority, saw the S2 introduction situation as you're claiming you see the S3 introduction situation -- myself included. The fact is that this introduction is different. One step forward, one step back -- they've achieved no forward movement. I don't think TiVo can do anything different at this point -- they're between a rock and a hard place, and they don't have any other options. Sad.

As time goes on the percentage of HDTV customers will increase. In this regard, I think Tivo's future strategy involves integration of their software onto third party DVRs (like the Comcast deal).Finally something we can agree on. What might save TiVo, now, is licensing their software to run on other company's STBs. To the extent TiVo survives, I believe, it will be because the failures I see in the S3 will be made-up by what they're able to achieve as contractors to Comcast.

My point, again, was that business plans (good and bad ones) are not always as simple as "lower the price so it's barely above margin and sell a whole bunch of them".I agree. As I've said before, I don't think TiVo is making a bad decision now, but rather I believe they made a bad decision earlier, when they didn't have the vision to see the bad place they'd be in now, with the introduction of SDV, the delay of CC2.0 and their inability to factor CC2.0 into their design, the ramifications of all that.

[MediaLivingRoom]

$799 is too much. $599 is much better.

[HDTiVo]

$799 is too much. $599 is much better.
$299 is too much better.

[HDTiVo]

I'm going to be serious this time.

A few weeks during the still generally slowish season of selling at this price into extremely fanatical pent up demand is not a bad idea. The evaluations should start 6-8 weeks in.

[SpankyInChicago]

You sound like one of those day traders on the finance message boards.
Microsoft gonna kill it. Stocks gonna drop like a rock. Get out now. Blah Blah Blah.

Sorry. I do not read "day traders" on "finance message boards." Apparently you do.

Tivo has been headed out of business for a long time. Everyone knows that. I felt that this product was their last chance to create some buzz and win some business. But I believe they have failed on this with the S3. I own five Tivo units. I am clearly a huge fan of their products. But I am not blind to the obvious.

Grass roots evangelists can only take Tivo so far.

Add MRV & TTG and $800 becomes more reasonable, though still high. I would strongly consider buying three of the units to replace my three HR10-250s if they added MRV, TTG, and eSATA.

This is of course just my educated opinion on the matter, and I could be totally wrong. I guess only time will tell.

[bilbo]

hd dvd players are $500
blu-ray players are $1,000
hd series 3 tive is $800

[Stephen Tu]

Cross-product category comparisons don't always make sense. You have to look at the competition with products doing basically the same thing, if available. Blu-ray is awfully expensive, and gets heavily criticized for that just like Tivo S3, as HD-DVD does basically the same thing (better actually, for initial titles), at half the price. HD-DVD is expensive vs. DVD, but it is providing more than double the resolution, and there aren't competitors providing comparable product at a lower price.

Tivo series 3 does basically the same thing as the cable HD-DVRs. It offers more storage, OTA capability, and better software, but the question is whether there are enough people who will pay the premium that Tivo is asking for to make this a successful product & push Tivo towards profitability.

[eisenb11]

I was an instructor at a university. However, I could have taught it to pigs at a pig farm and the concepts would still be the same.

It matters to me. Any looney can claim he teaches whatever to whomever, at least there is more merit in Univ teaching. Ofcourse, you could be making it up for all I know, but I'll take your word for it...

I never said that companies cannot make money selling niche products. What I said was that I believe that TiVo, however, won't succeed in doing so. It is much harder to make money on niche products, because you have to inflate the price so much more to turn a profit. TiVo is a small company and, compared to Pioneer and Sony, simply cannot withstand the ramifications of that risk doesn't pay off.

Again, it's quite possible that the S3 wouldn't designed to make lots money... I honestly believe the S3 and Comcast deal are related. I think it's a means to an end and share a similar code branch. If I'm correct about their strategy Tivo would be happy just to break even on the S3... although a loss may even be justifying... possibly...

Rudeness to someone else is never funny. It's selfish, self-amusement. If you want to be rude, as part of a joke, be self-deprecating -- be rude to yourself. That actually is typically considered funny.

You, apparently have some serious issues. Did people pick on you when you were a kid?

There are many different kinds of humor. One need not poke fun at themselves while attempting humor... in fact most humor involves poking fun at others. Apparently you've got a very thin skin and can't take even obvious attempts at humor (as indicated with smileys).

You, sir, have no sense of humor... I'd poke a joke about that but it's really quite sad.

Now you're just-plain-lying: You called TiVo a massive company. They're not. They're a small company. You were wrong. And that has a big impact on the point here.

You're slaughtering context again. Yes, I said they were massive because I meant they were a large DVR company. Then you pulled out your market cap definition which changes everything entirely.

First, no one said we're using text book definitions here. Second, you can't just redefine words and change another person's context in order to support your arguments.

I'm seeing a trend here, you're continually using definitions and careful trimming of my points in order to define your arguments. You change the meaning of my points and hence their intent.

You're essentially arguing with yourself, because the intent of my argument ends up getting diluted and changed after you're done manipulating it.

It isn't a given. TiVo will make a profit on the hardware, at this price, but they still have an obligation to provide service -- that's a liability that they'll carry. If they don't make enough money on subscriptions, then they'll continue to lose money overall. The only way to make money on subscriptions is to have lots of subscribers, since the cost of servicing subscriptions is pretty flat. A niche machine won't help them overcome the losses they've been incurring year-after-year, on their S1/S2 business.

No it won't... but a product designed for a niche market which paves the way to a larger market (3rd party DVR market) will take care of that.

If this was just like the introduction of the S2, then we wouldn't be having this discussion. There were a few (a very few) people who objected to the prices for the original S2s. The vast majority, overwhelming majority, saw the S2 introduction situation as you're claiming you see the S3 introduction situation -- myself included. The fact is that this introduction is different.

My comparison to the S2 was to indicate that the S2 started out at a much higher price than it ended up at. How is the S3 going to be any different? Higher price now... it'll be cheaper later... I promise.

One step forward, one step back -- they've achieved no forward movement. I don't think TiVo can do anything different at this point -- they're between a rock and a hard place, and they don't have any other options. Sad.

I think this is a good move for tivo in the long run. It depends on how your view their business strategy. Your view holds true if your views on strategy is correct, mine holds true for my view.

Finally something we can agree on. What might save TiVo, now, is licensing their software to run on other company's STBs. To the extent TiVo survives, I believe, it will be because the failures I see in the S3 will be made-up by what they're able to achieve as contractors to Comcast.

Comcast is important... very important. I'll explain my view of their strategy at the end of this post.

I agree. As I've said before, I don't think TiVo is making a bad decision now, but rather I believe they made a bad decision earlier, when they didn't have the vision to see the bad place they'd be in now, with the introduction of SDV, the delay of CC2.0 and their inability to factor CC2.0 into their design, the ramifications of all that.

Oh, yes... definately. The S3 really should have been released a year or more ago. Right now CC 2.0 and SDV make the value of the S3 short term... but this is from the viewpoint as the S3 as an atomic unit. If we look at this from a different perspective, it may not end up being too bad.

Ok, now let me talk about my views of their long term strategy a little more... maybe this will shed more light on my beliefs here. I'll try to keep it simple.

1. Tivo is a subscription service. The hardware is a means to an end.

2. Deals like with Comcast and DTV are great - they get to make software and stay away from hardware. Plus they get nice subscription money.

2a. To support Comcast, Tivo has to make HD DVR software. This is going to cost money.

2b. The S3 has similar software requirements, minor differences here.

2c. Chicken and the egg. Did the Comcast deal lead to the S3 or vice versa. I'm betting on the vice versa. The S3 project leads to the base code for use in the Comcast deal.

2d. Hence, even if the S3 loses money, it was a neccessary step towards the Comcast deal which will make money.

So if Tivo saw this coming, what they're doing with the S3 was brilliant. If they didn't see things like the Comcast deal coming then Tivo was lucky and what they're doing with the S3 wasn't so brilliant.

It depends from which perspective you look at this. I believe Tivo did the S3 project with the intent of getting into the 3rd party DVR market... in which case the S3 is a smart move... and even if the S3 (as an atomic unit) is a loss the overall gain from the S3 being a means towards and end will be positive.

[zalusky]

Time will tell but apparently the first round of deliveries were snatched up pretty fast.

You guys keep talking like MRV and TTG isnt going to happen. Why do you think that. Do you feel Microsoft is going to payoff the CableLabs people so they can and Tivo cant.

What about the Tivo on Motorola! What about Tivo winning against Dish!
What about Murdoch dumping DirecTV and the possibilities with new ownership.

I cant believe how much people are whining over a couple of Hundred dollars and yet spend thousands on a plasma. Yea its about the competition. I havent seen any competitive box where people rave about how rock solid they are.

Are you ready to give up your wishlists? Its a keypoint of how we record.

Nobody mentiones this box has THX certification. In the receiver market the price goes up big time when that is factored in. THX may not be a big deal to most people but its implying this box designed for the Acura market not the Honda market. If you want the Honda Civic features and pricing go buy a Series2 DT. The Cable company equivalent is more like a microsoft windows machine full of virus's.

[eisenb11]

You guys keep talking like MRV and TTG isnt going to happen. Why do you think that. Do you feel Microsoft is going to payoff the CableLabs people so they can and Tivo cant.

I agree on the other points, just wanted to clarify some stuff on this part of the comment.

Microsoft is CL certified for use of the cards, but that doesn't mean they can do the same stuffg as MRV/TTG.

The CL cert requires that the data be protected, MS does this by enforcing strict OS and hardware requirement and the PC vendor has to get the entire computer certified to prove that it protects the digital content.

TTG is supposed to work on any computer. If Tivo goes the MS route, every S3 owner would have to buy a new computer to do this...

Also CL doesn't like the idea of the data being sent from one source device to another. With MS the data stays on the same computer it was recorded on - it doesn't move around.

One thing I'm curious about though is the use of the X360 with the Vista MCE. I wonder if the X360 is allowed to act as a media extender with CC recorded data... or if it's excluded as part of the deal with CL?

[bicker]

You, apparently have some serious issues.And you're continually rude, despite your protestations to the contrary. What's sad is watching you try to participate in an adult discussion and continually fall back into your puerile habits.

Yes, I said they were massive because I meant they were a large DVR company. That's nothing more than a cop-out -- your statement about TiVo being "massive" was unqualified. Beyond that, they're among the smallest DVR companies. Other major DVR makers, Motorola and Scientific Atlanta, are far larger companies. Just face it. You have no idea what you're talking about when it comes to business.

Then you pulled out your market cap definition which changes everything entirely.There is no more generally-accepted means of determined how large a company is. You could use revenues, sure, but even there, TiVo's competitors are orders of magnitude larger.

TiVo is "massive" in your mind, that's all.

First, no one said we're using text book definitions here. No one said we were speaking English either.

Second, you can't just redefine words and change another person's context in order to support your arguments.Gosh, you've put into words precisely what you've been doing. :rolleyes:

I'm seeing a trend here, you're continually using definitions and careful trimming of my points in order to define your arguments.I have barely any interest in what you're saying, any longer. It's pretty silly, at this point, watching you try to avoid the fact that you're arguing against things that I haven't said. Get a grip.

Oh, yes... definately. The S3 really should have been released a year or more ago. Right now CC 2.0 and SDV make the value of the S3 short term... Gosh, maybe some bits of light are getting through to you. Too bad it's too little too late.

[eisenb11]

And you're continually rude, despite your protestations to the contrary. What's sad is watching you try to participate in an adult discussion and continually fall back into your puerile habits.

I'm sorry, but you just can't take your own advice. Everything you accuse me of you like to recipricate.

If everything you say about me is true, you're honestly no better than I.

Perhaps you should go back to teaching your economics at the university? Or perhaps they got sick of you there... can't see why... you're very socialable...

You can't take a joke, you can't take an alternate oppinion, and you definately can't argue.

I didn't feel like pointing it out until now, but you've insulted me in every post you've made... yet you say I'm rude and adolescent?

Whatever.

That's nothing more than a cop-out -- your statement about TiVo being "massive" was unqualified. Beyond that, they're among the smallest DVR companies. Other major DVR makers, Motorola and Scientific Atlanta, are far larger companies. Just face it. You have no idea what you're talking about when it comes to business.

It's called context. For a supposed university teacher, you're pretty dense. Yes, I know my use of the term "massive" is unqualified, I said so myself in my last post.

Haha, no idea... I think I've much more experience in the electronics tech industry than you have. Go back to your Disney World discussions. I work in the tech industry... it's my job - for companies that much larger than Tivo can ever hope to be (no slam against tivo, just our game is in a much larger arena).

You run around in circles claiming Tivo is small (I'm ok with that) but imply that they can't utilize complex business strategies. The world of technology is rarely as simple as you make it out to be. Of course you won't see that... it's your loss.

There is no more generally-accepted means of determined how large a company is. You could use revenues, sure, but even there, TiVo's competitors are orders of magnitude larger.

Last I checked forums were for informal discussion. Apparently, you don't understand that and feel that ground rules, formal definitions, etc must be used in order to talk about anything on the Internet.

You're actually quite confrontational... a lot more than I think you believe... I bet you're really popular at parties.

TiVo is "massive" in your mind, that's all.

No one said we were speaking English either.

Proper understanding of the English language is understanding the intent and not just reading the words. You know what I mean when I said "massive" but you're being a ass about it.

By you're definition most of the good literature and poetry written in the English language must be garbage then because you're ability to read between the lines is about as good as your ability to take a joke.

Gosh, you've put into words precisely what you've been doing. :rolleyes:

So "I know you are but what am I?" is all you can come up with?

I have barely any interest in what you're saying, any longer. It's pretty silly, at this point, watching you try to avoid the fact that you're arguing against things that I haven't said. Get a grip.

Yes, apparently you're unable to understand the concepts of how things work in the real life. Go back to teaching pigs at your third-rate school please! (no smiley this time, not meant as a joke... for the humor impaired)

Gosh, maybe some bits of light are getting through to you. Too bad it's too little too late.

Ouch I'm so hurt. I guess I'll have to go hang out at the Disney forums now where I can pretend that someone cares about my small-time advice... with no basis in reality...

I've made one primary point through all my posts and it's funny that in every single one of your replies it also happens to be the point that you ignore.

Stop trying to belittle me and just get to the heart of the argument...

The S3 may be part of a much larger plan that may not necessitate it needing to be a large profit maker.

With all your name-calling, and juevanile antics I think you forgot what this was supposed to be about. Feel free continue calling me names, it's ok... but I was actually curious to see more details of why your over-simplistic views are justified...

You're having so much fun being a twit that you've lost sight of the subject but what do I know... apparently I'm just a dummy poo-poo stupid head...

[eisenb11]

bicker,

According to this (http://www.allexperts.com/expert.cgi?m=1&catID=234&expID=5553) you're supposedly a nice, helpful and courteous fellow.

So why are you such a nice guy with all things Disney but such a jerk on here?

Does Tivo bring out the badness in you or are you actually so upset about the S3 that you've suffered a mental breakdown resulting in a major personality change?

Or do you really hate me that much...? :D

PS. Too bad you'd rather call me names. You have a very easy to follow trail on the Internet... some of your economic arguments actually look pretty interesting.