Is TIVO lacking confidence in S3 too?

[lowepg]

Seems to explain the $800 price tag.

You'd think if they were really confident this would be a long-term winner- they wouldn't be so worried about re-couping all their costs/profits upfront....

I think they could get away with the big price tag when they had no competitors- but now...... in some ways they are releasing a product with fewer features than some others and with LESSS functionality than their own older generation boxes.

This isnt about "those that can afford $800" vs. those that cant. I like my toys and have no problem dropping coin on them- but I wont just blindly pi$$ my money away.

TIVO will score with the folks that will buy anything from them- and then (in a shrill manner) attack any disenters :-)

But after those 200 people buy theirs.......

[megazone]

Then the price will drop and more will buy. TiVo will adjust their pricing based on market performance.

[SystemJinx]

Lowepg,

That's a very odd way of looking at it. If a product is weak it's usually sold at discount to sell as many as possible. That way a company can flood the market, and hopefully make a profit in bulk sales. Tivo is clearly not doing this.

This pricing is for early adopters. As Megazone stated, the price will drop in time. When DVD players were first released I spent $500 for one because that's what they sold for. Now one can be bought for less than $50.

[lowepg]

Lowepg,

That's a very odd way of looking at it. If a product is weak it's usually sold at discount to sell as many as possible. That way a company can flood the market, and hopefully make a profit in bulk sales. Tivo is clearly not doing this.

This pricing is for early adopters. As Megazone stated, the price will drop in time. When DVD players were first released I spent $500 for one because that's what they sold for. Now one can be bought for less than $50.

I understand your point- but what Im saying is I dont buy the "early adopter" theory. I think thats appropriate when you're talking about some new, revolutionary product. This doesnt fit that bill.

So, to your example- do you think anyone would pay Sony $500 for a DVD player if Toshiba had them for $25?

Frankly, I prefer bad car analogies- but you started it! :rolleyes:

[dheerema]

I understand your point- but what Im saying is I dont buy the "early adopter" theory. I think thats appropriate when you're talking about some new, revolutionary product. This doesnt fit that bill.

So, to your example- do you think anyone would pay Sony $500 for a DVD player if Toshiba had them for $25?

Frankly, I prefer bad car analogies- but you started it! :rolleyes:


Unfortunately for Tivo, current non-tivo customers who have their cable DVr have no idea why tivo is such a big deal. They sort-of do the same thing. But, after having both there really is no comparison.

[bap]

I dont buy the "early adopter" theory. What's not to "buy" about it? TiVo is clearly using a "carrot and stick" approach in their initial rollout. True the price is high, but not so high as to be completely outrageous. They're offering a carrot to holders of lifetime agreement plans to transfer those lifetimes to the S3. By offering that carrot they're hoping to maximize their short term profits. It wouldn't surprise me if the vast majority of people who buy S3's at $799 are people who have lifetimed S1's or S2's. Since the lifetime transfer option expires in just a few months I'm also willing to bet that you'll see the prices drop very soon after that deadline.

Also consider the fact that there hasn't been any significant general marketing/advertising blitz prior to the availability of the S3. The vast majority of people who know about the S3 release and are considering purchasing one are existing TiVo owners. They're specifically focusing on their existing customer base rather than new customers at this point. Those are the people most likely to be early adopters of TiVos rather than the person off the street who just walks into Best Buy to buy their first one. Again, it won't surprise me if we start to see more general advertising of the S3 after the lifetime deadline passes and prices start to drop.

[musicforme]

I understand your point- but what Im saying is I dont buy the "early adopter" theory. I think thats appropriate when you're talking about some new, revolutionary product. This doesnt fit that bill.

The early adopter theory is taught in all the undergrad Marketing classes in business school. This seems like a classic example to me.

In my opinion, this is a revolutionary product. How many other devices do you know that can record two HD streams with the use of CableCards? I've been very eager to purchase a device such as this for quite some time and very willing to be an early adopter.

[TriBruin]

Seems to explain the $800 price tag.

You'd think if they were really confident this would be a long-term winner- they wouldn't be so worried about re-couping all their costs/profits upfront....

This was the model for the Series 2 (sell below cost and recoup the money on monthly fees). How well has that worked for Tivo? :confused:

I think they could get away with the big price tag when they had no competitors- but now...... in some ways they are releasing a product with fewer features than some others and with LESSS functionality than their own older generation boxes.

Yes it is missing some functionality we know and love. But it also is adding capabilities people have been screaming for. (Maybe you have heard of this new technology called HDTV?)

This isnt about "those that can afford $800" vs. those that cant. I like my toys and have no problem dropping coin on them- but I wont just blindly pi$$ my money away.

And Tivo is holding a gun to your head while taking $800 out of your wallet. If YOU do not find the value of the box to be $800 then don't buy it.

Like everyone has said multiple times, the price WILL come down. My guess is after Christmas.

TIVO will score with the folks that will buy anything from them- and then (in a shrill manner) attack any disenters :-)

And why is there always people who have to try and prove how much superior they are because they "don't drink the kool-aid?"

If you don't want to buy, just don't buy it.

But after those 200 people buy theirs.......

[Stormspace]

How many other devices do you know that can record two HD streams with the use of CableCards?

This is not relevant to the discussion as cable DVR's don't require Cable Cards.

[bap]

This is not relevant to the discussion as cable DVR's don't require Cable Cards.
OK, how about this then:

How many options for HD DVR's (that are capable of recording premium/scrambled content) are there other than those provided directly by cable/sat companies?

(and that don't rely on an external STB or other hardware from the cable/sat company)

[mchad]

This is not relevant to the discussion as cable DVR's don't require Cable Cards.


Actually, my Cablevision Sci Atl DVR uses a cablecard. And interestingly, can record two shows at the same time (as long as I am watching one of them). As it uses only one card, does that mean the card is multicast (or whatever it is called?)

[MickeS]

I understand your point- but what Im saying is I dont buy the "early adopter" theory. I think thats appropriate when you're talking about some new, revolutionary product. This doesnt fit that bill.

So, to your example- do you think anyone would pay Sony $500 for a DVD player if Toshiba had them for $25?

Frankly, I prefer bad car analogies- but you started it! :rolleyes:

Well, people DO still pay $500 for some DVD-players, even though there are those for $30...

[theone]

Time will tell but I will be completely shocked if Tivo will be able to keep the 800 price through the holiday shopping season.

I have asked many current tivo owners at my office if they plan to buy the tivo and they just laugh when they find out about the price. So these are people that already know the value of the tivo software and they have no plans to pay anywhere near 800 for something their cable dvr has been doing for years.

This is not new technology. I think it will be a major blunder if tivo goes through the holiday season without pricing this unit at or below 499 and doing a major marketing campaign. The masses will not buy the S3 above 499 and realistically probably above 399.

[Stormspace]

OK, how about this then:

How many options for HD DVR's (that are capable of recording premium/scrambled content) are there other than those provided directly by cable/sat companies?

(and that don't rely on an external STB or other hardware from the cable/sat company)

I'm no cable company fanboy, but almost all cable co's are offering something like this, so why exclude them? The fact is that TiVo is competing against the Cable co's boxes and in round one and two they've lost. They lost in round one by not beign first to market, and in round two by offering a box so rediculously priced with no substantial additional features they are practically asking people to use the cable DVR.

[jfh3]

Actually, my Cablevision Sci Atl DVR uses a cablecard. And interestingly, can record two shows at the same time (as long as I am watching one of them). As it uses only one card, does that mean the card is multicast (or whatever it is called?)

Are you sure it's a cablecard and not an access card?

If it only uses one cablecard, then that card is a multistream card.

[jfh3]

I'm no cable company fanboy, but almost all cable co's are offering something like this, so why exclude them?

Explain how you are going to get two HD digital signals from a cable box to a Tivo without re-encoding. No cable box I know of outputs the digital stream (for obvious reasons)

And if you re-encode, how are you going to do in a box that only costs $800?

[Jazhuis]

This is not relevant to the discussion as cable DVR's don't require Cable Cards.

...yet.
(Assuming the FCC doesn't back down on the early 2007 cutoff date again)

[bap]

I'm no cable company fanboy, but almost all cable co's are offering something like this, so why exclude them? The fact is that TiVo is competing against the Cable co's boxes and in round one and two they've lost. They lost in round one by not beign first to market, and in round two by offering a box so rediculously priced with no substantial additional features they are practically asking people to use the cable DVR.They may have lost in round 1 but in my opinion, and in the opinion of a lot of other folks here they certianly have NOT lost in round 2. I'm more than happy to pay for an S3 considering all the other options available to me. The quality of the TiVo products are significantly better than the quality of the Comcast products. As far as not offering significant features goes, the Comcast DVR won't let you change channels when recording, doesn't offer features like wish lists, online scheduling, increasing storage capacity, etc. So it seems to me like there are "substantial additional features" to me.

[moyekj]

Explain how you are going to get two HD digital signals from a cable box to a Tivo without re-encoding. No cable box I know of outputs the digital stream (for obvious reasons) Actually with the Motorola DCT64xx HD DVR boxes you can extract the native digital mpeg2 transport stream via firewire outputs today, and have been able to for around 2 years now. This can be either for previously recorded shows or for the currently tuned foreground tuner. It is a real time process however and only works for non-premium channels so is less than ideal. If Tivo can get S3 approved for TTG (or there are other means of extracting shows natively) then it would be the better choice. I'll be on the sidelines at least until this is possible with the S3.

If/when Tivo software for Comcast & Cox become available it's very likely the firewire output extraction will still work which would make it apparently a more capable box than the current S3. So I think Tivo will have to get TTG & MRV implemented in the S3 to make the box more compelling compared to these other options.

[Stormspace]

Explain how you are going to get two HD digital signals from a cable box to a Tivo without re-encoding. No cable box I know of outputs the digital stream (for obvious reasons)

And if you re-encode, how are you going to do in a box that only costs $800?

Huh? Neither the S3 or Cable DVRs have any sort of toGo/MRV working.

edit: Except for the aforementioned firewire extraction which I've heard mixed reviews on.