Starting to rethink that $199 transfer offer !

[JKay]

I am starting lose my enthusiasm for the $199 lifetime transfer offer. I would have to purchase the TiVo from TiVo thereby negating any opportunity to take advantage of a possible retailer’s discount.

So let’s say for the fun of it that I could purchase an S3 after the holiday season for $600 and, of course, did not take advantage of the lifetime transfer. This would result in a $400 saving. As I am entitled to the reduced $6.99 subscription fee, it would take 57 months before I had a total expenditure of one thousand dollars. Given all the gotchas the cable industry is throwing around, 57 months might exceed the useful life of a Series 3 TiVo.

[ah30k]

Given your assumptions, I'd stick with monthly MSD.

Others may be working on other assumptions, such as getting one for $600 any time soon.

[rainwater]

I agree. I do not see a big incentive for Lifetime users to upgrade their lifetime to a S3. They could just keep their lifetime'd unit and wait until the MSRP drops on the S3. Then you get the MSD rate. I guess for some people who have the money now and don't like monthly bills it might make sense. But long term, I am not seeing the financial benefit.

[MediaLivingRoom]

I am starting lose my enthusiasm for the $199 lifetime transfer offer. I would have to purchase the TiVo from TiVo thereby negating any opportunity to take advantage of a possible retailer’s discount.

So let’s say for the fun of it that I could purchase an S3 after the holiday season for $600 and, of course, did not take advantage of the lifetime transfer. This would result in a $400 saving. As I am entitled to the reduced $6.99 subscription fee, it would take 57 months before I had a total expenditure of one thousand dollars. Given all the gotchas the cable industry is throwing around, 57 months might exceed the useful life of a Series 3 TiVo.


That is my point about TiVo VIP is really not so VIP.

[Sirshagg]

This of course assumes that MSD still exists (and at the same rate) in 57 months.

[russwong]

Has anyone confirmed that the discounted rate exists or is available for the S3?

I have a "3" tuner media center computer that is able to record 3 different HD feeds that works now. It's not as good as a Tivo, but I'm not sure if it's worth upwards of $1000 to get a Tivo....

Anyone else already recording HD and is debating?

[DrDravenStone]

It also assumes that you don't consider the resale value...

I've got a 14hr series one (one month too late for the grandfathered free transfer I might add) with lifetime and a bigger HDD. I could sell it on E-bay for about what I have spent on it, 6 years ago.

I don't see it as likely that there are going to be a whole bunch of S3's with lifetime, which will only increase their value. I guess the real question is how low they will get the hardware.

The other real unknown is what the net effect of tivo software on cable co STB's will be...

[tunnelengineer]

boy......lot's of assuming going on here..............

[jlb]

You know....to assume......yada yada yada.....LOL!

[smak]

I am starting lose my enthusiasm for the $199 lifetime transfer offer. I would have to purchase the TiVo from TiVo thereby negating any opportunity to take advantage of a possible retailer’s discount.

So let’s say for the fun of it that I could purchase an S3 after the holiday season for $600 and, of course, did not take advantage of the lifetime transfer. This would result in a $400 saving. As I am entitled to the reduced $6.99 subscription fee, it would take 57 months before I had a total expenditure of one thousand dollars. Given all the gotchas the cable industry is throwing around, 57 months might exceed the useful life of a Series 3 TiVo.

Well, you could have said the same thing about the old lifetime price at $300 vs a $6.95 reduced subscription.

Problem is, that $6.95 reduced subscription is lost money, while the $200 lifetime is found money.

Anybody doubt that you will be able to sell a series 3 + lifetime for a nice chunk of change down the line.

That $200 will easily be worth a lot more in the future.

This is not even mentioning the fact, that your current lifetimed box is either worth something to you to be free for a year, or is worth a big chunk of that $200 when selling it.

-smak-

[LostTivo]

One problem with your math... According to the service terms, you don't qualify for the MSD if you only have a tivo with lifetime. Therefore, you would be paying $12.95/month.

http://www.tivo.com/5.11.4.asp
1. Discounted Monthly TiVo Service Fee. The MULTI-SERVICE DISCOUNT reduces the Monthly TiVo service or TiVo Plus service subscription fee to $6.95 per month while in compliance with all applicable Initial Qualification and General Eligibility requirements. Only monthly service-only TiVo service or TiVo Plus service subscriptions are eligible to receive the MULTI-SERVICE DISCOUNT. TiVo Package, Annual, Prepaid, and Product Lifetime Subscriptions are not eligible to receive the MULTI-SERVICE DISCOUNT. However, in accordance with the Initial Qualification and General Eligibility requirements set forth above, TiVo Package, Annual, Prepaid, and Product Lifetime Subscriptions may serve as the Qualifying Subscription.

[bubba1972]

I thought a lifetime S2 Tivo acted as the qualifying unit and would allow the new monthy S3 to be billed at the MSD rate assuming you bought the hardware only (not a service bundle).

[Sirshagg]

http://www.tivo.com/5.11.4.asp
1. Discounted Monthly TiVo Service Fee. The MULTI-SERVICE DISCOUNT reduces the Monthly TiVo service or TiVo Plus service subscription fee to $6.95 per month while in compliance with all applicable Initial Qualification and General Eligibility requirements. Only monthly service-only TiVo service or TiVo Plus service subscriptions are eligible to receive the MULTI-SERVICE DISCOUNT. TiVo Package, Annual, Prepaid, and Product Lifetime Subscriptions are not eligible to receive the MULTI-SERVICE DISCOUNT. However, in accordance with the Initial Qualification and General Eligibility requirements set forth above, TiVo Package, Annual, Prepaid, and Product Lifetime Subscriptions may serve as the Qualifying Subscription.

That section states what units can RECEIVE the MSD not what units qualify others for MSD.

[bkdtv]

If you already have a Tivo with lifetime, you won't be paying more than $6.95/mo for the Series3.

[ufo4sale]

Is it a given that a lifetime series III will be worth at least 1000 if you sell it on ebay in several years? This is the only reason why i'm not buying a series III right now, cause honestly I don't know what to do.

[jdmass]

I am going through the same calculations and do not see a big win for the lifetime upgrade. Right now I'm leaning toward selling my Series 2 w/lifetime on ebay and using it to reduce the outlay for a S3. Basically the S3 w/lifetime doesn't breakeven for close to 4 years.

Here are my calculations (assuming 1 S3 and 1 S2):


Upgrade
Purchase Price 799
Lifetime 199
1 yr 2nd Tivo credit -83.40
Monthly cost 4 yrs 250.20
Net cost 1164.80


Sell
Purchase Price 799
Sale of Tivo 2 w/Lifetime -450 (est.)
Monthly cost 4 yrs (2 Tivos) 955.20
Net cost 1304.20


Of course, if I then sold after this period, I'd get a lot more for a lifetime S3 than a non-lifetime one, so the gap would increase. But that's a big if, and a long time to get a return. Plus, I'd probably just sink the money into another Tivo :)

[JosB]

If you already have a Tivo with lifetime, you won't be paying more than $6.95/mo for the Series3.

Just curious, what makes you say that? `0.4.offerdetail.pkg.asp?terms=1yrMOs3' at the tivo website specifically says:

Not Eligible for Multi-Service Discount.

Jos

[jdmass]

I just did another calculation and it looks like over 4 years it's actually cheaper to sell my S2 w/ lifetime and buy and S3 with prepaid service (3yr@299 + 1 yr @155.40)

Sell & Buy 3 yr + 1 yr sub

Purchase Price 799
Sale of Tivo 2 credit -450 (est)
Monthly cost 4 yrs 788
Net cost 1137

[Ereth]

In my case it makes good sense. I have a Series 1 with Lifetime. It's broken. I can fix it, but really, what's the point? It's a Series 1. It's never going to get an update again.

So I can transfer that Lifetime service to a new box with lots of new features and a future that involves even more. That has value to me.

[jfh3]

In my case it makes good sense. I have a Series 1 with Lifetime. It's broken. I can fix it, but really, what's the point? It's a Series 1. It's never going to get an update again.

So I can transfer that Lifetime service to a new box with lots of new features and a future that involves even more. That has value to me.

You guys are the customers that get the most out of the vip deal - for you, the original lifetime fee is indeed lost money, so you are essentially looking at lifetime for $199.

[phixel]

You guys are the customers that get the most out of the vip deal - for you, the original lifetime fee is indeed lost money, so you are essentially looking at lifetime for $199.

Frankly I see no deal here. $799 for a 250Gig box? Give me a break. The DirecTivo
HD is $400 with the same size drive and even at $400 it's over priced. Yes, Tivo
needs to recover NRE to develope the series 3, but then if you want to grow
subscriber base your going to have to discount to get the volume up. $799 back
when ReplyTV was the only other kid on the block may have been a deal,
but compared to what's available today (and I am speaking hardware here)
its an insult at that price!

:mad:

The series 3 shouldn't have exceeded $499. Realistically it should have been
$299 if you want to move some product and increase subscribers.

Razor and the razor blade kids.

My two cents...

-Marc

[jfh3]

Razor and the razor blade kids.

If you want a razor, get a Series 2.

Tivo has said they aren't going to subsidize the Series 3 hardware like they did with previous generations.

[brooklynjoe]

I believe that you really can't sell your Tivo Series 2 Lifetime on ebay as a "lifetime" transfer and still get the VIP upgrade for the Series 3. Tivo is taking your Series 2 license and extending it for one year and one year only. After the one year, your Tivo Series 2 with the "lifetime" will be dead.

Am I wrong here?

[seattlewendell]

If you want a razor, get a Series 2.

Tivo has said they aren't going to subsidize the Series 3 hardware like they did with previous generations.
Yes.....and you write this like it's actually a good idea on their part.

[loubob57]

In my case it makes good sense. I have a Series 1 with Lifetime. It's broken. I can fix it, but really, what's the point? It's a Series 1. It's never going to get an update again.

So I can transfer that Lifetime service to a new box with lots of new features and a future that involves even more. That has value to me.
+1

With the exception that my Series 1 is still working (since 3/01!). But the other thing is that the Series 1 will operate without TiVo service. I did this briefly when the Series 2 lifetime transfer deal was offered. I transferred the service to the new series 2 and operated the Series 1 without service for about a month. The interface was horribly crippled, you can only do manual recordings and couldn't make them repeat (IIRC). I bought lifetime service for it right before the price went up from $249.

[bilbo]

I am going through the same calculations and do not see a big win for the lifetime upgrade. Right now I'm leaning toward selling my Series 2 w/lifetime on ebay and using it to reduce the outlay for a S3. Basically the S3 w/lifetime doesn't breakeven for close to 4 years.

Here are my calculations (assuming 1 S3 and 1 S2):


Upgrade
Purchase Price 799
Lifetime 199
1 yr 2nd Tivo credit -83.40
Monthly cost 4 yrs 250.20
Net cost 1164.80


Sell
Purchase Price 799
Sale of Tivo 2 w/Lifetime -450 (est.)
Monthly cost 4 yrs (2 Tivos) 955.20
Net cost 1304.20


Of course, if I then sold after this period, I'd get a lot more for a lifetime S3 than a non-lifetime one, so the gap would increase. But that's a big if, and a long time to get a return. Plus, I'd probably just sink the money into another Tivo :)



I have an old Series2 (140) -- I think it is 40-hours @ the worst setting (which I never use) that I purchased about 5 years ago directly from Tivo. By my calculations transferring the lifetime would be of benefit to me in three years (that is not the true break-even point, but the Lifetime Service will definitely have some inherent value before the actual break-even point).

Upgrade
Purchase Price 799
Lifetime 199
(1 yr 2nd Tivo credit is worth 83.40 but is not of any real value to me so I won't count it.)
Resale value of old S2 in 1 year w/o Lifetime 0.00 (Negligible)
Added resale value of Lifetime Service on S3 in 3 years (-400) (est.)
Net cost 598.00

Sell
Purchase Price 799
Re-sale value of 40-hour 140 Tivo Series2 w/Lifetime -350 (est.)
Cost of service 3 yrs 250.2
Net cost 699.20

That re-sale value of my 140 Series2 40-hr. is high IMHO, but someone might pay that much just for the Lifetime Service on EBay (to transfer it to a Series3). Amazingly, I think I only paid $250 for it (LS) originally. After all, the allure of Tivo was/has been the fact that I am not paying a monthly fee for two different Tivo's with Lifetime (the second one a 80-hour I've had since January 2005).

The value on the second Tivo (transferring to Lifetime) is not as good. I'd end up paying $13/month for my past service (by my calculations I would leave about $140 on the table versus the $6.95 plan) and $200 for future service. Of course, that is not much worse than if I had had the foresight to buy a $300 Lifetime Gift Subscription in March. For the 2nd Tivo, the numbers would be about $740 to Upgrade.

My dilemma is not much different from having paid points on a mortgage in 2001 to get a rate of 6% on a 30-year loan because the rates looked like they were at their bottom, and then refinancing in 2003 when the rates were a point lower at 5% for 30 years.

[danfi]

Just curious, what makes you say that? `0.4.offerdetail.pkg.asp?terms=1yrMOs3' at the tivo website specifically says:

Not Eligible for Multi-Service Discount.

Jos


According to this thread, http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?t=315851&highlight=MSD, if you don't buy the TiVo from TiVo with one of their service plans you can still get the MSD on the Series 3.

[jfh3]

Yes.....and you write this like it's actually a good idea on their part.

Until HDTV is the norm, rather than the exception, it is.

Tivo never intended the Series 3 to be a box for the masses. I don't understand why everyone thinks it should be.

I have no doubt that Series 3 will be more affordable next year. But I expect we'll need to see the next generation box before Tivo will have an HD box at giveaway prices like the Series 2 is now.

[albrandwood]

I am going through the same calculations and do not see a big win for the lifetime upgrade. Right now I'm leaning toward selling my Series 2 w/lifetime on ebay and using it to reduce the outlay for a S3. Basically the S3 w/lifetime doesn't breakeven for close to 4 years.

Here are my calculations (assuming 1 S3 and 1 S2):


Upgrade
Purchase Price 799
Lifetime 199
1 yr 2nd Tivo credit -83.40
Monthly cost 4 yrs 250.20
Net cost 1164.80


Sell
Purchase Price 799
Sale of Tivo 2 w/Lifetime -450 (est.)
Monthly cost 4 yrs (2 Tivos) 955.20
Net cost 1304.20


Of course, if I then sold after this period, I'd get a lot more for a lifetime S3 than a non-lifetime one, so the gap would increase. But that's a big if, and a long time to get a return. Plus, I'd probably just sink the money into another Tivo :)

I have a similar issue ...
I have 2x S1 Lifetime, 3x S2 MSD... The S2's are in daily use, one of the S1s is turned on once every 3 months to keep the MSD active. The other is there as a backup ... so I should be able to keep the MSD active until both S1s die (and give the useage, that'll be a very long time)

So, Do I want to get an S3 as a replacement for an S2? or as an additional (at least until the MRV/TTG/TCM issue is resolved) if so, should I transfer the lifetime from an S1 to the S3 (the 1yr subscription for the S1 is not relevent, since it doesn't get used anyway) ?

if I replace an S2, then my outlay is $800 (+$40 extended warranty) ... since these are MSD currently, then I would not see an increase in expense.

if I replace an S1, then my outlay is $1000 and the break-even on the transfer cost is 28 months, and just hope that the machine doesn't die, since the TiVo warranty is 1 year,

if I add the S3 to the account, then my outlay is $800 (+$40 ext warranty) + MSD until the MRV/TTG/TCM issues are solved ...

(At that point, then I can retire an S2 or two)

The way I see is, the breakeven point on the lifetime transfer is:
15 mths if you only have 1x lifetime or 28 mths if you have multiple lifetime ...

Why? the single lifetime box is the primary machine on the account, and therefore the lifetime is instead of the $13/month rate.
multiple lifetime boxes are interchangable as the lead machine on the account so any one is only worth $7/month.

Now, the issue as I see it, is that the warranty from TiVo is only 1 year ... so after 12 months your replacement costs would be retail + MSD anyway ...

I'm leaning towards an S3.MSD, with the plan of retiring an S2.MSD, and when the MRV/TTG issue is resolved, replacing all the S2.MSD with S3.MSD with 4yr warranties to protect the hardware investments.

[larrs]

Yes.....and you write this like it's actually a good idea on their part.

It is a good thing on their part as the S3 will always be a niche product. Complaining about slow subscriber "uptake" on S1 and S2? They will look like "giants" compared to the S3.

[Brett]

If you want a razor, get a Series 2.

Tivo has said they aren't going to subsidize the Series 3 hardware like they did with previous generations.


Tivo needs to reduce the price of this box...

Consumers have so many more options nowadays, that if TiVo really wants to capture market share, they need to reduce the price of this box ASAP. Unlike when there were pretty much only two options (TiVo and Replay), now all the cable companies rent HD PVRs and there are other PC-based options and DirecTV options which can all be had for less money. All these options are readily available to consumers and easy to get...cheap.


I have two series 1 TiVos w/ lifetime service that hardly get used any more.
I also rent an HD PVR from comcast for $15 per month.

I had always planned on dropping the Comcast box in favor of the S3 TiVo...until I saw the price.

The Comcast PVR has some quirks which are really annoying, but it costs me $180 per year in rental fees....period. Usually I am a big proponent of buying over renting/leasing, but supposedly sometime next year, these boxes will be running the TiVo software as well.


The S3 box (as its priced now) would cost me $1000 to buy (incl. lifetime transfer from my series 1 box). Plus I believe that Comcast may charge a monthly $2-3 "outlet" fee per cable card (need to verify this). So that means an additional $24-36 per year.

Rental (assuming no price increase)
-----------------------------------
$180 * 7 years = $1260

TiVo Series 3 (assuming no "outlet" fee increase)
-----------------------------------
$1000 + ($36 * 7 years) = $1252

That means it would take about 7 years for my rental costs to reach the amount I had to shell out for the TiVo box. And in that time the price/value of the TiVo box will definitely drop.

I'm also sure that there would probably be another TiVo box (Series 4) released during that time. So resale value of the Series 3 will go down. And while I might be able to recoup some money selling S3 to upgrade to the S4 box, then I'd still be making more of a capital investment in new hardware.

Whereas, keeping the Comcast rental would alow me to get the latest and greatest as soon as its available (for rental) w/o buying new hardware.


I don't understand why TiVo didn't release this at $499 or less. Or at the very least offer a REAL VIP benefit and allow people to buy the box retail and do the lifetime transfer, or allow one free lifetime transfer per existing lifetime customer at time of launch. I couldn't care less about the "free" year of service on my old box...I'm replacing my old box. Give me money off the new box, that's what I want!



I'm certain this would result in a lot more sales, and a lot less disenfranchised longtime TiVo users.

Its going to be very difficult for TiVo to steal market share away from Cable companies at such a high price, especially those who have to pay the additional subscription fees on top of the $800 box.

[cwoody222]

I'm also torn.

I want to do the VIP Lifetime swap but I hate the $800 price on tivo.com. I'd much prefer to buy it at a retailer for maybe a discount but I understand the lifetime can't be transferred then.

I have 2 eligible units to transfer. One is a busted S1 so the lifetime service is just sitting there, wasting away.

Another is an S2 which I wouldn't need if I got the S3 so I could sell the S2+lifetime for around $400 I think. But that's only $400 out of $1000 for the S3+lifetime transfer so still $600.

If I could get the S3 from a retailer for around $600 AND do the lifetime swap that would bring the final S3+lifetime price down to around $400 for me and I could justify that. But I know that's not possible :(

[cwoody222]

However... what if I...

Sold the busted S1+lifetime. I'd get $300 at least.
Sell the S2+lifetime and get hopefully around $400.

That's $700. Use that cash towards a S3 w/o service at either tivo.com or retail.

Then just bite the monthly $12.95 bullet. (and lose resale value) :(

[albrandwood]

for me ...

I have a CableVision SA8000 ... and an S1 lifetime ...
the SA8000 is $5/mth for the hardware + $10/mth for the DVR service
the SA4300 for the S1 is $5/mth
Cablevision = $20/mth

Tivo is $800 for the hardware, $7 for the service, $2-4 for the cablecards (depending on how they charge them) ...

which means that TiVo S3 will be $9-$11 /mth cheaper to run, and will take 72-88 months to pay off the purchase price ... (between 7 and 8 yrs !!! )

If I go for the lifetime transfer (from the existing S1) then the S3 would cost $2-$4/mth + $1000 upfront ... which would take 55 and 62 months (4-5 yrs) for the S3 to pay for itself ...

Alternatively, I could just say, over the next 4 years, I'll pay $161 more for the S3 than the S1 + SA4300 + SA8000 ... or just $3.35/mth ... (assuming I keep the S1) ... or $25 more if I upgrade the S1 to the S3 ...

At which point the financials can be justified by the _significantly_ better interface.

[JosB]

According to this thread, [snip], if you don't buy the TiVo from TiVo with one of their service plans you can still get the MSD on the Series 3.

I see. Thanks for the link, danfi. That VIP deal sure looks less interesting by the minute.

Jos