Number of S3 units available at launch?

[raober]

Anybody have any idea how many S3s will be produced by launch? Wondering how quick they'll sell out at TiVo's website mainly...I'm sure they'll go quick at the BBs when they put them out.

[Dan203]

I hope they did a big run like they did with the S2DT units. I'd hate to see a supply problem like they had with the HD-DirecTiVo units a couple years back.

Dan

[BriGuy20]

All I care is that they have enough units so I get one at launch. :)

[nhaigh]

I'm hoping for a lot. I think there will be huge day one demand.

[jeffrypennock]

All I care is that they have enough units so I get one at launch. :)
Me too.

[davezatz]

Davis Freeberg speculates they have $12 million dollars of units (all varities?) ready to go:
http://davisfreeberg.com/2006/09/06/tivo-puts-investors-in-suicide-squeeze-play/

[HiDefGator]

I would be very surprised if there was a shortage of them.

[Rosenkavalier]

Davis Freeberg speculates they have $12 million dollars of units (all varities?) ready to go:
http://davisfreeberg.com/2006/09/06/tivo-puts-investors-in-suicide-squeeze-play/

Unless I misread that article, wasn't he talking about 2004 when he threw out that $12 million figure?

[vman41]

Unless I misread that article, wasn't he talking about 2004 when he threw out that $12 million figure?

The sentence begins "They were out of cash", then in a later clause switches tense to "but still has $75 million in the bank", so I think he is talking about then and now.

[Stanley Rohner]

At $800 per unit and no TTG initally I don't think you'll have to worry about the units being sold out right away.
:)

[davezatz]

Unless I misread that article, wasn't he talking about 2004 when he threw out that $12 million figure?

I exchanged a few emails with Davis a week or so ago after the quarterly results and from what I recall he seemed to think there was $12mil in current inventory (including S3s?). He may have changed his analysis or I may have misunderstood him, as I don't seriously track or understand the financial details.

[jfh3]

At $800 per unit and no TTG initally I don't think you'll have to worry about the units being sold out right away.
:)

We don't know that TTG won't be available at launch.

[bdraw]

At $800 per unit and no TTG initally I don't think you'll have to worry about the units being sold out right away.
:)

The HD DirecTiVo was $1000 at launch and still doesn't have TTG and I had to wait over a month to get one, people were paying +20% on Ebay for them.

But that was a long time ago.

[Stanley Rohner]

The HD DirecTiVo was $1000 at launch and still doesn't have TTG and I had to wait over a month to get one, people were paying +20% on Ebay for them.

But that was a long time ago.

None of the DIRECTiVos ever had TTG and they probably never will.
I don't see the point of bringing this up as a comparison.

The HD DIRECTiVo was the first TiVo DVR to ever record HDTV. A lot more people were all excited to buy one so they could say - I have a DVR that records HDTV !!

The cable companies have had a 2 tuner HDTV DVRs for a while now. Most people won't spend $800 to switch DVRs just cause it's a TiVo DVR.

[NickIN]

Most people won't spend $800 to switch DVRs just cause it's a TiVo DVR.

I will

[Davis Freeberg]

The $12 million figure I use is actually really just a rough estimate of how many S3 I think they have in inventory based on their 07/31/06 10K filing. In the filing, they actually report $18 million in "finished goods" as of then, which is up about $8 million from 01/31/06.

Considering that over the last few months, they've been practically giving away the single tuner series 2 boxes, I figured that about 2/3rds of the inventory was S3 and about 1/3rd was dual tuner S2's, but the real breakdown on that number is anyone's guess.

If they do launch with $12 million in S3 inventory and using a $500 inventory valuation, I think we'll see approximately 24,000 S3 units available at the launch. This might sound like a lot, but considering that last quarter they sold 10,000 stand alone S2's per month and that there is likely some pent up demand for the drool worthy HDTV THX Certified S3, I don't think they'll have any problem blowing through the initial inventory. This doesn't take into account what they've built since 07/31 or any additional back orders that should arrive for the holidays, but I have a funny suspicion that the TiVo series 3 is going to be very kind to the Ebay scalpers this holiday season.

[HDTiVo]

Comparing Q4 INV and AR to Q2 in a highly seasonal business is flawed. YOY comparisons might yield some insight. But they are launching 2 months after Q2, and Radio Shack build up was involved in Q2.

[jeffrypennock]

Most people won't spend $800 to switch DVRs just cause it's a TiVo DVR.
So will I

[jfh3]

I have a funny suspicion that the TiVo series 3 is going to be very kind to the Ebay scalpers this holiday season.

I got the rest of your post, but can you explain what you mean by this comment?

[Davis Freeberg]

HDTiVo - You bring up a good point and my number is really an assumption more then anything. If you actually go back and compare year over year numbers you see that they had $20 million in finished inventory at the same time last year and a similar $12 million number in January of 05', so it could be that the $18 million being accounted for is really just S2 inventory, but with the series 3 launch date approaching, I would think that the inventory mix may have changed a bit since then. It could be that the $18 million doesn't include any inventory for the S3 or it could be that it's less then the $12 million assumption I making, but in looking at the numbers, $12 million is my best guess as to how many boxes will be available for the launch.

jfh3 - I guess what I'm saying is that I think that there are going to be less then 25,000 S3's available for the launch and with the S3 being one of the hot holiday gifts, I suspect that we will see limited supply and strong demand. This should mean that the ebayers will be able to scalp these things for a nice premium. I know that a lot of people think $800 is too high, but frankly, I would have paid a lot more then $800 for the box and if TiVo sells out of boxes, then we'll see people willing to pay premiums on Ebay in order to get one before the holiday season. I don't condone scalping and hopefully I'm wrong about the supply issues, but regardless of whether they will have a million boxes ready or 10,000, I will be buying one as soon as physically possible.

[vman41]

If they do launch with $12 million in S3 inventory and using a $500 inventory valuation, I think we'll see approximately 24,000 S3 units available at the launch.

24,000 isn't many at all. Per capita, it would work out to about 80 for all of central Ohio, which ostensibly has a dozen or so outlets that would be carrying the unit.

[Dan203]

Most people won't spend $800 to switch DVRs just cause it's a TiVo DVR.

I plan on buying at least 2.

Dan

[Dajad]

Count me in for 1.

[Dan203]

Dale, aren't you in Canada? Do they even have CableCARDs up there? Or are you just planning on using it for OTA?

Dan

[jfh3]

jfh3 - I guess what I'm saying is that I think that there are going to be less then 25,000 S3's available for the launch and with the S3 being one of the hot holiday gifts, I suspect that we will see limited supply and strong demand. This should mean that the ebayers will be able to scalp these things for a nice premium.

Thanks.

(I won't buy one off eBay, but I hope to buy two ASAP and one early next year)

[TIVOSciolist]

I will

Wow. I got my 50" plasma a couple of weeks ago and have been waiting for the HD TiVo.

I'm going to get my first TiVo and finally understand what you all have been talking about!