Series 3 upgrade cost

[twassel]

It's obviously early, but I'm disappointed in the upgrade strategy (if I understand it correctly). I have Series 2 with lifetime (just got it in February) which I use on my non-HD set. I also have Cablevision's SA 8300HD for my HD set.

First, I'll say that Tivo's interface is lights out better than the SA (although there are some plusses, but that's another topic.) No one needs to convince me Tivo's better, but at what cost?

The SA costs me $10 a month ($120 per year) (it's $15 per month, but a non-DVR box is $5 per month, so $10 is the increment.) I can keep what I have, which costs me $10 per month. So one year cost is $120; two year cost is $240. (I'm also renting the box for that sum, so if it goes bad I can just exchange it at no cost.)

Or, I can upgrade my lifetime to S3 for $199, buy a Series 3 for $799 (rebates? discounts? who knows?), and use the Series 2 for a year for free. In second year, I get 2nd box discount which costs $6.95. One year cost: $998. Two year cost: $1,081.40. And I own the box, so if it fails, I'm out of luck.

So I have to convice my wife and myself that it makes sense to pay $878 (one year difference) or $841.40 for the privilege of having an S3 instead of an SA8300. I'm having a hard time convincing myself of that, let alone the spouse. Am I missing something in this analysis?

I love Tivo, but not at that price. I'll have to live with the SA's shortcomings.

[maki]

I wouldn't make any assumptions and base your decisions off them until you know if the MSRP will be the actual price retailers choose to sell at. Maybe you could wait it out awhile for it to drop. Look at that cost though - less than $100 more for the two years for S3 on your math, and it'll only keeping paying off as it'll be lifetime.

You'll keep paying $120/year indefinitely for that other thing.

[aztivo]

It's obviously early, but I'm disappointed in the upgrade strategy (if I understand it correctly). I have Series 2 with lifetime (just got it in February) which I use on my non-HD set. I also have Cablevision's SA 8300HD for my HD set.

First, I'll say that Tivo's interface is lights out better than the SA (although there are some plusses, but that's another topic.) No one needs to convince me Tivo's better, but at what cost?

The SA costs me $10 a month ($120 per year) (it's $15 per month, but a non-DVR box is $5 per month, so $10 is the increment.) I can keep what I have, which costs me $10 per month. So one year cost is $120; two year cost is $240. (I'm also renting the box for that sum, so if it goes bad I can just exchange it at no cost.)

Or, I can upgrade my lifetime to S3 for $199, buy a Series 3 for $799 (rebates? discounts? who knows?), and use the Series 2 for a year for free. In second year, I get 2nd box discount which costs $6.95. One year cost: $998. Two year cost: $1,081.40. And I own the box, so if it fails, I'm out of luck.

So I have to convice my wife and myself that it makes sense to pay $878 (one year difference) or $841.40 for the privilege of having an S3 instead of an SA8300. I'm having a hard time convincing myself of that, let alone the spouse. Am I missing something in this analysis?

I love Tivo, but not at that price. I'll have to live with the SA's shortcomings.
Do you own a house or rent an apartment?? If you own you can do what you want make add ons (bigger hard drives) if you rent then the best you get is vanilla. Also it cost you $150 a year because you dont need there box with the S3 and you can record 2 chanels

[ZeoTiVo]

You can also just pay MSD of 6.95 on the S3 and not worry about lifetime.

then that saves you 3 bucks a month on the monthly outlay and then you wait for the S3 to sell at the price point you are willing to pay.

[bpurcell]

It's incorrect to think of the S3 as a year investment. When Tivo states their earnings, I believe they stretch out the Lifetime income to 3 years (if someone knows exactly, please correct me). Your cable DVR will cost you $360 in that span (assuming no price increases, which isn't a good assumption in the cable business). Now that will mean that the S3 will still cost more than a Cable DVR, but as you said, the Tivo interface is so much better.

It's like deciding between a High end computer or low end. You have to ask yourself what's important to you and if it's worth the price. If the S3 isn't worth the price, then you have to accept that and move on. Eventually the S3 will go down in price, and the Lifetime transfer deal is good through the end of the year, so you have plenty of time to decide.

[bkdtv]

As you suggest, if you pay that $199 to transfer lifetime from your Series2 to the Series3, your monthly bill would be $0/mo for 12 months, and then back to $6.95/mo after that. Essentially, if you keep your Series2, all that $199 does is save you from paying one year of $6.95/mo service fees ($83.40).

Paying $199 to transfer your lifetime subscription only makes economic sense if you plan to disgard the Series2 after the free year of service is up. Otherwise, you are just throwing $115.60 away.

So I have to convice my wife and myself that it makes sense to pay $878 (one year difference) or $841.40 for the privilege of having an S3 instead of an SA8300. I'm having a hard time convincing myself of that, let alone the spouse. Am I missing something in this analysis?
You're missing the fact that $799 is MSRP, and doesn't include any rebates. Tivo is currently running a $150 rebate, which may or may not be available for the Series3. The wholesale cost of the Series3 is $500, which means it should sell online for $600-$650 after the initial sales rush.

With Cablevision, you subsidize their DVR with a subscription to digital cable. You aren't actually paying $15 per year...you're paying much more because you can't get it without overpriced diigtal service, which is where Cablevision really makes its money. You don't need digital service to use the Series3.

Since you have Cablevision, I assume you live in New York. Verizon FiOS will soon be available in most Cablevision markets. Below is approximately what your bill would be for Verizon FiOS service with 10Mbps Internet, 180 digital channels, and ~20 HDTV channels:

Verizon FiOS Internet

FiOS Internet for xxxxxxxx

- Verizon Fios Internet Service Sep 4 - Oct 3 $34.95
- VZ Fios Cons Promo Disc - $5 off 12 Mo - $5.00

Total FiOS Internet for xxxxxxxx $29.95

Total Verizon FiOS Internet $29.95


Verizon FiOS TV

FiOS TV for xx/VAXA/xxxxxx/ /VZVA


- FIOS TV Premier Aug 4 - Sep 3 $39.95
- CableCard Rental - Multistream Aug 4 $2.95
- PEG Fee $1.38
- Franchise Fee $3.78

Total FiOS TV for xx/VAXA/xxxxxx/ /VZVA $48.06

Total Verizon FiOS TV $48.06

Total New Charges $78.01
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Buy a Series3 for $650 online and pay the $6.95/mo fee. Forget the $199 lifetime transfer. Your monthly cost is now $84.96/mo. You've save money every month off Cablevision which will pay for the Series3.

[rainwater]

There's always a price to pay for being an early adopter. I would stick with your cable dvr until after the new year. By then the price will have dropped and the hopefully most of the software bugs will have been worked out.

[ADent]

There was a one time S1 to S2 lifetime transfer. At that time the S2 units were quite pricey, came with a small HD, and only USB 1.

Later the prices came down a lot, but no lifetime transfer.

So don't be disappointed if these things are $499 in 12 months and $349 in 18 - after rebates.

[HDTiVo]

No:

One year cost: $998.
Two year cost: $998.
Three year cost: $998.
Four year cost: $998.
Five year cost: $998.
Six year cost: $998.
Seven year cost: $998.
Eight year cost: $998.
Cost after that... $998.

Less whatever you sell the S3 for on e-Bay at some point.
Edit: Plus cable card cost(s)...see below.

[MurrayJimW]

You're also leaving out the additional fee for two cable cards....in my case that's another $5 per month....I'm having the same problem with the math, but I intend to get 1 or 2 S3's anyhow.........

[bkdtv]

You're also leaving out the additional fee for two cable cards....in my case that's another $5 per month
Comcast, Cox, TWC, and Cablevision all start receiving their first stock of multistream cards in late October. Only one card is needed.

[Dan203]

The other thing to keep in mind is TiVo will probably offer some sort of "no upfront" or "low upfront" cost option like they do with the S2 units. If they go for the "no upfront" appriach I'd expect to pay about $25/mo for 2 years for a S3 unit. If they go for the "low upfront" type plan then I would guess the monthly proces will be the same as they are now (i.e. $16.95, $18.95 or $19.95) but then you'd pay a box upgrade fee of $300-$400. Either way your out of pocket expense would be a lot lower then simply forking out $1K on the spot, so it might be a viable option.

Dan

[bubba1972]

With Cablevision, you subsidize their DVR with a subscription to digital cable. You aren't actually paying $15 per year...you're paying much more because you can't get it without overpriced diigtal service, which is where Cablevision really makes its money. You don't need digital service to use the Series3.


Can you explain what you mean by not needing digital service with the S3? Do you mean it will still get basic analog channels if you drop digital service or you can actually get the digital channels tier without paying the additional fees? Thanks.

[funtoupgrade]

Does anybody know if the $199 transfer will void any rebates that might be offered? This has happened before?

[twassel]

I'm not sure what you mean by subsidizing the digital cable. I had digital cable before I started renting their DVR. Without digital, I miss out on lots of channels.

The issue of rebates and street price is a good one (I raised it in my initial post.) No one seems to have the straight dope on what will happen when these items hit the street.

Your price quote on FIOS, BTW, is for their slowest service. The next tier is $44.95 a month. I'm not sure about their channel selection yet, either. It's not available to me yet, but I'll look forward to finding out more when it is.

[shady]

Does anybody know if the $199 transfer will void any rebates that might be offered? This has happened before?

I'm sure somebody does, but that person would be working for TiVo

[bkdtv]

Can you explain what you mean by not needing digital service with the S3? Do you mean it will still get basic analog channels if you drop digital service or you can actually get the digital channels tier without paying the additional fees? Thanks.
You can't get the digital service tier without paying the additional fees, but you can get the local DTV/HDTV channels without the digital cable subscription. Depending on your cable provider, you may get a few other HD channels as well with the basic tier.

For example, with FiOS, you can get all the analog and DTV/HDTV locals for $12.95/mo.

I'm not sure what you mean by subsidizing the digital cable. I had digital cable before I started renting their DVR. Without digital, I miss out on lots of channels.
It means they keep raising the cost of digital cable to provide new hardware like the HDTV DVR. As in the example I gave above, FiOS offers just about channel on Cablevision, and far more HDTV channels, for $20-$30 less per month.

Your price quote on FIOS, BTW, is for their slowest service. The next tier is $44.95 a month. I'm not sure about their channel selection yet, either. It's not available to me yet, but I'll look forward to finding out more when it is.
You live in Cablevision territory. In New York, FiOS Internet is 10Mbps downstream and 2Mbps upstream for the "slowest" service. That slowest service is still faster than the competition, because it's dedicated (622Mbps shared by 32 customers, as compared to Cablevision which shares ~38Mbps between 12-24 customers).

Verizon's premium package for $10 more gives you 20Mbps downstream and 5Mbps upstream in NY.

[ZeoTiVo]

I'm not sure what you mean by subsidizing the digital cable. I had digital cable before I started renting their DVR. Without digital, I miss out on lots of channels. he meant that the cable company can factor some of the cost of the DVR into the cost of the digital tier since you have to get digital to have the DVR. to me that is significant since I just have/want extended basic cable. For you it is not a factor.
The issue of rebates and street price is a good one (I raised it in my initial post.) No one seems to have the straight dope on what will happen when these items hit the street.
the current rebate on TiVo is for 150$ but only applies to S2 and ends Spetember 12 or 16th -something like that. Rebates previously lasted about 3 months but a new one came out right away. With the S3 all bets are off - perhaps no rebate at all for a while, perhaps the same rebate which applies only to S2 or a new one that applies to S2 and S3.

The rebate typically hinges on new activation of service -so a lifetime transfer would not be new activation and thus the speculation it will not apply if there is one. The only thing we know is the MSRP from a best Buy inventory system. What the actual price is is still unknown

[mattack]

And I own the box, so if it fails, I'm out of luck.

You're not completely out of luck.. at least as far as the subscription goes, if it will work the same as it does now.

Currently, people have gotten series 1s and 2s replaced, and had their subscriptions transferred. You simply can't go out and buy a new one and transfer the subscription, but when going through the normal repair channels, you can pay a fee for a refurbished unit for example.

[c3]

Does anybody know if the $199 transfer will void any rebates that might be offered? This has happened before?

When TiVo offered the S1->S2 lifetime transfer, you had to order directly from TiVo (at MSRP), and there was no rebate.

[MichaelK]

The other thing to keep in mind is TiVo will probably offer some sort of "no upfront" or "low upfront" cost option like they do with the S2 units. If they go for the "no upfront" appriach I'd expect to pay about $25/mo for 2 years for a S3 unit. If they go for the "low upfront" type plan then I would guess the monthly proces will be the same as they are now (i.e. $16.95, $18.95 or $19.95) but then you'd pay a box upgrade fee of $300-$400. Either way your out of pocket expense would be a lot lower then simply forking out $1K on the spot, so it might be a viable option.

Dan

maybe I'm not following but i think your estimates are WAY too optimistic -

zero down and $25/month for 2 years? where do I sign up????!!!!!

that's only 600 bucks for the box and 2 years service.

even factoring in I could get the multi box discount at 6.96 a month for service I would be getting the box for like $450.

If you factor service at 12.95 a month its less than $300 for the box!

At that price I'll take 2 for sure and maybe a third.

If somehow they come down to $25 a month with zero down it's probably got to be a 4 year committment for them to come close to the 799 MSRP.

Maybe in 6 months or a year they can go that low monthly when the MSRP drops but no way the price is like that anytime this year.

But you do bring up some intersting possibilities- Maybe they try $40 a month for 2 years? Assuming 12.95 a month for serivce and after 2 years you'd have paid around 650 for the box which equals the 799MSRP minus the usual 150 rebate/buy directv discount. So that might be a choice- I'd seriously think of that. On larger peurchases there's somethign to be said for zero percent financing.


But boy if you are close, i'd be happy as a pig the stuff.

[aaronwt]

Comcast, Cox, TWC, and Cablevision all start receiving their first stock of multistream cards in late October. Only one card is needed.

SO with one multistream card I could record two encrypted channels simultaneously? And without a multistream card I would need two of them to accomplish the same thing?
Would they even know what I'm talking about if I ask for a multistream card? You would think the cable company wouldn't even offer that to an S3 owner since they might get less money. You would think they would force you to get as many cards as possible.

[bkdtv]

SO with one multistream card I could record two encrypted channels simultaneously? And without a multistream card I would need two of them to accomplish the same thing?Correct. Multistream cards from Motorola are on order but won't arrive before late October.

Would they even know what I'm talking about if I ask for a multistream card?CSRs will get training on it when they're available.

I've found the best thing to do when getting CableCards is to actually go to the local office to pick them up. If you ask at the desk and they don't know what you're talking about, they can ask someone else, or even inquire with the office manager.

Moreover, when you call on the phone, they almost always want to schedule an installation appointment. When you go to the local office, they are more inclined to give you the cards to install yourself.

[MichaelK]

... You would think the cable company wouldn't even offer that to an S3 owner since they might get less money. You would think they would force you to get as many cards as possible.

I'm not convinced they make much if any profit on the things. The FCC basically threatened them to keep the monthly fee under $2. Assuming they last 4 years thats still just $96. With the pathetic amount in use, I'm not sure they can buy them for less than 100 bucks...

And that's at $2 a month, comcast told the FCC they offer them for free.

[MichaelK]

bkdtv- may i ask where you get your info about who and when M-cards are ordered?

is it public someplace where I can go to find what my small provider plans?

[bkdtv]

Michael,

I inquired with corporate vps at Comcast and Verizon. Both said the cards were backordered with shipments slated to arrive between late October and mid-November.

[skanter]

Do you own a house or rent an apartment?? If you own you can do what you want make add ons (bigger hard drives) if you rent then the best you get is vanilla. Also it cost you $150 a year because you dont need there box with the S3 and you can record 2 chanels

FYI, the SA8300 has a SATA port for adding more storage. Not sure how well this is implemented yet, but many people have increased storage with an external drive.

[AJRitz]

FYI, the SA8300 has a SATA port for adding more storage. Not sure how well this is implemented yet, but many people have increased storage with an external drive.
AFAIK, no cable provider has enabled the SATA port on the SA8300, nor has any provider announced an intention to do so. IF they do implement it, it would be more in keeping with the cableco business model to require you to "rent" a compatible drive/enclosure package from them for a monthly "upgrade" fee.

[MichaelK]

Michael,

I inquired with corporate vps at Comcast and Verizon. Both said the cards were backordered with shipments slated to arrive between late October and mid-November.

thanks- I guess I'll call my cable provider and see if anyone there has a clue.

they're a dink (40 more rural towns) though so I'm not sure if they'll have a clue...

[bkdtv]

AFAIK, no cable provider has enabled the SATA port on the SA8300, nor has any provider announced an intention to do so. IF they do implement it, it would be more in keeping with the cableco business model to require you to "rent" a compatible drive/enclosure package from them for a monthly "upgrade" fee.
Comcast, Cox, and TWC have the SATA port enabled on the SA8300HD with SARA. You can use your own drive/enclosure.

[MichaelK]

AFAIK, no cable provider has enabled the SATA port on the SA8300, nor has any provider announced an intention to do so. IF they do implement it, it would be more in keeping with the cableco business model to require you to "rent" a compatible drive/enclosure package from them for a monthly "upgrade" fee.

people at AVS have reported the port active with some cable companys in some areas.

quick search yeilds at least this thread:
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?threadid=516559

[ITGuy72]

Add Cablevision to the list of eSATA enabled 8300 providers.

[MichaelK]

wow- that's like all the big guns no?

[skanter]

AFAIK, no cable provider has enabled the SATA port on the SA8300, nor has any provider announced an intention to do so. IF they do implement it, it would be more in keeping with the cableco business model to require you to "rent" a compatible drive/enclosure package from them for a monthly "upgrade" fee.

I don't have a specific link, but I Googled "SA8300HD and SATA" and came up with forums where several people had added drives to both the SARA and Passport versions of the SA8300. It seems that were a few problems, but that it did work. It was mentioned that TWC says that SATA port has not been enabled because they don't want to deal with all the issues involved, but that it does work.

As soon as I get hold of an enclosure and cable, I'll try it myself!

[vstone]

AFAIK, no cable provider has enabled the SATA port on the SA8300, nor has any provider announced an intention to do so. IF they do implement it, it would be more in keeping with the cableco business model to require you to "rent" a compatible drive/enclosure package from them for a monthly "upgrade" fee.My Adelphia 8300HD has had an eSATA drive hooked up to it since August 2005.