Tivo Series3: Availability 9/17/2006 @ $799 MSRP?

[bkdtv]

First posted on AVS Forum by MK153 (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=716163)...

I work at Best Buy and it popped up in our system today - its "In-Stock" date is 9/17/2006 with a Best Buy SKU of 7974418 (UPC of 400079744186 and Model TCD648250B).

The price is $799.99

Thought all of you would like to know - That "In-Stock" date is for our warehouses - the "Street Date" field is left blank - but I am guessing "Coming Soon" is really damn soon.
If there is a rebate, it's not accounted for in the $799 price. We can hope.

Keep in mind this is MSRP. Very few products sell for full MSRP once they are available from the likes of Amazon.com and Buy.com.

Update #1: Best Buy's cost for the Series3 is about $500, so discounts off $799 are definitely possible.

Update #2: Pictures of shipping Series3 and Series3 Retail Box (http://www.pvrwire.com/2006/08/31/tivo-series-3-unboxed/)

Update #3: Customers will be able to transfer lifetime subscriptions from their S1/S2 to the Series3 for $199. This offer also includes a free year of service on the old Tivo. Limited time offer -- only valid on Series3 purchases made through December 31, 2006.

[ZeoTiVo]

any word on rebates ? I actually doubt there will be one at first anyhow though.

[matthewwhite]

The UPC is a dummy range that is never assigned to products but for internal use only.

My guess is that it's a fake.

[TiVo Troll]

Maybe it's close to the time when an official TiVo guy says hi, and spills the beans!

If Series 3 is going to be offered from TiVo with TiVo's usual 30 day return for a full refund policy I'm going to get one just to personally evaluate it firsthand!

I'll be out of town until September 20, so there's a good possibility that I'll have to wait until Series 3's initial orders get taken care of first.

[jfh3]

The UPC is a dummy range that is never assigned to products but for internal use only.

My guess is that it's a fake.

Yes, it's a fake. By design.

From the UPC code database:

"Dummy (number system 4) UPCs are for private use. This means anybody (typically a retailer) that needs to assign a UPC to an item that doesn't already have one, can use any number system 4 UPC it chooses. Most importantly, they can know that by doing so, they won't pick one that may already be used. So, such a UPC can and does mean something different depending on who you ask, and there's no reason to try to keep track of what products these correspond to."

All that means to me is that Best Buy may have entered a SKU for the Series 3 with a dummy UPC code until they get the real thing ...

[dylanursula]

WOW! $800..... that prob $300 more then i am willing to pay :(
Oh well, Comcast Tivo it is :(

[Toeside]

:(

$799 is too much for us, too. Here's hoping the real price is much less.

[Stanley Rohner]

Why are you WOW! about it costing $800 ?

The High-Def DIRECTiVo was about $999 when it first came out.

$799 sounds like a bargain to me considering what it will do.

[Turtleboy]

Anyone remember how much the original 14 hour Tivo cost?

[Bierboy]

I agree that $799 is right in the range I expected.

[TiVotion]

Well, if MSRP is $799, that would likely make the "street price" somewhat lower. But if Best Buy's inventory price is actually $799 and that IS the actual retail price, I'd have to say I'd be unwilling to shell out $800 for this thing. That amount of cash would go a long way towards purchasing an entire new TV. $500 I'd probably do with little reservation, but that's just too much out of the box.

I was short sighted enough to lay out $800 for the Pioneer DVD recorder with TiVo when that first came out, and in retrospect that device simply hasn't turned out to be worth it.

[jfh3]

I was short sighted enough to lay out $800 for the Pioneer DVD recorder with TiVo when that first came out, and in retrospect that device simply hasn't turned out to be worth it.

Early adoptors always pay a premium price.

$799, if true, is a little disappointing, but not totally surprising or unexpected.

[dig_duggler]

It's going to be tough to make a dent at the price. I love tivo and have introduced it to many people, but that's too much for an average consumer. Especially when you consider the cable company (however inferior they might be) alternatives.

Maybe it will get to under $600 after rebates, but honestly who wants to screw with those Tivo rebates anymore...

[jfh3]

It's going to be tough to make a dent at the price. I love tivo and have introduced it to many people, but that's too much for an average consumer.


Don't forget that the Series 3 wasn't designed with the "average consumer" in mind.

[dig_duggler]

Don't forget that the Series 3 wasn't designed with the "average consumer" in mind.

Maybe that's why the company is doing so well....

[Bierboy]

...that's too much for an average consumer....TiVo has been VERY clear in its target audience for this product. It's NOT the average consumer; it's the high end clientele they have in their sights.

EDIT -- Ooops, double smeek :)!

[Bierboy]

BTW, I'd be REAL careful assuming this guy is, indeed, a BB employee. He only has eight posts listed in the AVSForum. And I'm sure some folks would LOVE to have the rumor mill swing into overdrive.

[TiVotion]

I'm taking that he could be an actual BB employee with a grain of salt, but of course this "news" will now spread like wildfire.

The price tag still wouldn't surprise me, though. I'm disappointed if it's true, but it still wouldn't surprise me.

What sucks in my case is that I have a Pioneer 810H unit hooked up to a 42" HDTV, and frankly the picture quality sucks (on standard channels). When I switch to direct HDTV input bypassing the Pioneer, the picture looks great. I'd been assuming that the S3 would alleviate this problem, but at that price point I'll just have to wait. :(

[jsmeeker]

If it IS true, the price is in the ball park of what I was expecting. Sadly, I can't afford to enter that park at this time. :(

[mfogarty5]

MK153 has updated his post over there.

"I know all of you want more details... so here is all the random crap you could want.

The dimensions of the box are 15.6inX19.4inX6.75in and it is a whopping 15.4lbs (This is the package - not the Tivo).

Its Out Of Stock date (when we are scheduled to clearance it out) is 9/17/2020

Here is an intresting tid-bit - the warranty is 1yr parts and 90 days labor.

Not a single Best Buy warehouse has one."

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8300149&&#post8300149

[c3]

The current rebate program ends 9/16, so release date of 9/17 makes sense.

[Dan203]

Anyone remember how much the original 14 hour Tivo cost?

When TiVos first hit the market they were $999 for a 14 hour unit and $1299 for a 30 hour unit. They quickly dropped to $699 and $999 respectively. Then $499 and $699, and then at the one year after release mark came down to $299 and $399. That's when I finally broke down and bought one.

I plan to buy a Seires 3 on day one, even if I do have to pay $800. If I can get it for a slight discount at Amazon.com, plus the $150 rebate, then I'll buy two right away. If not I might wait a few weeks for the second one.

Dan

[skanter]

I plan to be a -late adaptor- to the S3.

;)

Price will have to come way down before I trade-in my free SA 8300HD box.

[Lenonn]

I'd consider spending the $800 if it got me a free year of service with it. :) But, if that price is true, I'll need to think about it quite a bit. I want, I need one, with the new HD tv, but - it's a little much for my wallet.

However, that's what credit cards are for.

[Dan203]

A years worth of service, at $12.95, is only $155.40. So if they have the normal $150 rebate then that's just like getting a years worth of free service.

Dan

[drew2k]

A years worth of service, at $12.95, is only $155.40. So if they have the normal $150 rebate then that's just like getting a years worth of free service.

DanI usually rationalize making large purchases by looking at the monthly cost as if I had a year to pay it off with no interest.

At $799.99 plus tax, the S3 would be around $73/month for me, excluding any rebate. With $150 rebate, it's $60/month.

After I add on the service cost, that's either $85/month or $72/month.

I would turn in my Cablevision SA8300HD box, saving $15/month and bringing my monthly cost to $70 or $58 month for the first year.

That's borderline on my personal scale, so I'll probably wait a couple of months to read reviews, and then be a "slightly-later-than-early" adopter.

If reviews are positive and there are no issues receiving QAM HD channels without a cable card, I may "adopt" a littler earlier ...

[jb007]

Wonder how much the add-on external hard drive is going to run? :confused:

[Dan203]

If they allow any drive to be used then you'll be able to get an eSATA enclosure for about $30 and a decent size hard drive on sale for about $100. If they require a specific brand, or their own, I'm guessing it'll be a $200+ add-on.

Dan

[maki]

What I want to know is if there'll be a package deal and how much that'll run...

[jfh3]

pvrblog is also reporting an announcement date the previous Tuesday, with first availability on tivo.com:

http://www.pvrblog.com/pvr/2006/08/wild_rumor_seri.html

Seems reasonable, if the Best Buy info is true.

[MickeS]

I told (http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?p=4310393&&#post4310393) everyone here about this date before... ;)

This is great news, if true! I just wish I would've found out a week ago - I just spent my "extra money" on something else. :(

But I might try and get one of these anyway.... I really, really want one. And this was the price range that they announced before... although I was originally not willing to pay that much, it becomes a different matter when it's not hypothetical anymore. :)

[stantonl]

800 bucks is cheaper than I expected for the Series 3. I'll probably pick up one after I hear some people review it here and see how well it works. I guess I need to inquire about how much cable cards will cost from my cable company.

[bicker]

$799 was exactly what I thought they were going to charge. Too rich for me, at least as long as the spectre of SDV looms.

[sbiller]

I usually rationalize making large purchases by looking at the monthly cost as if I had a year to pay it off with no interest.

At $799.99 plus tax, the S3 would be around $73/month for me, excluding any rebate. With $150 rebate, it's $60/month.

After I add on the service cost, that's either $85/month or $72/month.

I would turn in my Cablevision SA8300HD box, saving $15/month and bringing my monthly cost to $70 or $58 month for the first year.

That's borderline on my personal scale, so I'll probably wait a couple of months to read reviews, and then be a "slightly-later-than-early" adopter.

If reviews are positive and there are no issues receiving QAM HD channels without a cable card, I may "adopt" a littler earlier ...

Maybe I'm missing something but if you amortize the useful lifespan of the series 3 at $800 over 3 years (36 months), then that is a monthly outlay of approximately $22 per month. If you add the $6.95 per month fee for a multiple TiVo household (like me) that brings the outlay to $30/month. I will consider it when its down to about $20/month over three years which means a street price of approximately $13x36=$468.

[George Cifranci]

Wonder how much the add-on external hard drive is going to run? :confused:

I wonder if this new 500GB Seagate eSata drive will work...

http://www.tomshardware.com/2006/08/24/seagate_500_gb_external_hard_drive_goes_esata/

It is around $260-$280.

[bicker]

I usually rationalize making large purchases by looking at the monthly cost as if I had a year to pay it off with no interest. Maybe I'm missing something but if you amortize the useful lifespan of the series 3 at $800 over 3 years (36 months),Drew rationalizes large purchases with a one year horizon, not a three year horizon. That's a typical, conservative perspective, for something where you're not absolutely sure you'll get full value out of it over a longer period of time. For all I know now, my cable company could render my purchase of a Series 3 useless, by moving my favorite channels to SDV. While they almost surely won't do so within the next six months, I think they perhaps will within the next three years.

My wife is a bit more optimistic (I suspect because either she trusts Comcast more than Time-Warner, or simply doesn't know much about SDV). She, like you, has a price-point of about $500 for the Series 3 (because our threshold for the device is about $35 per month, including service fees). For me, the price would have to come down to about $350-$400, because my current risk profile would have me peg that I could get maybe 15-18 months out of the device.

[nhaigh]

$800 - no problem, it's $200 less than I was prepared to go. I'll buy a Harmony 880 with what I have saved.


Where do I sign up?

[sbiller]

Drew rationalizes large purchases with a one year horizon, not a three year horizon. That's a typical, conservative perspective, for something where you're not absolutely sure you'll get full value out of it over a longer period of time. For all I know now, my cable company could render my purchase of a Series 3 useless, by moving my favorite channels to SDV. While they almost surely won't do so within the next six months, I think they perhaps will within the next three years.

My wife is a bit more optimistic (I suspect because either she trusts Comcast more than Time-Warner, or simply doesn't know much about SDV). She, like you, has a price-point of about $500 for the Series 3 (because our threshold for the device is about $35 per month, including service fees). For me, the price would have to come down to about $350-$400, because my current risk profile would have me peg that I could get maybe 15-18 months out of the device.

Excellent points. Another factor which I'll throw into the equation is the fact that I'm paying Brighthouse $17.00/month for their crappy SA8300HD PVR. Once I find out the cost of getting the cablecards from Brighthouse I can do a more accurate comparison. As far as the time horizon goes, I've gotten a lot more use out of my Series 1 & Series 2 PVRs then the 3 year break-even point. Like you, I am a bit concerned about the impacts of SDV on the analysis.

[VinceA]

$800 is about what I expected for a Day 1 price. I'll probably wait a bit to see what happens (and to save up) but I'll probably get one to replace my Series 2 (140 model).

[Bierboy]

This whole discussion about the price point is fascinating. I've been saving money for the S3 for a year and a half now (and I suspect many of you have been socking away some cash as well). I have exactly $800 right now, stashed in a drawer for this. By my logic, if it comes in at the $799 price point, mine is already bought with not another penny out of my pocket. :) BRING IT ON

[rainwater]

If its $800 at retail, that means the Tivo.com price with the service contract will be much less. So it will not be as much upfront costs for everyone. It all depends on how the MSD will work with S3.

[jlb]

A couple of thoughts. Though it may be fake, does anyone think it was a fake floated by TiVo to gauge price sensitivity?

Also, if it were $799 retail, don't forget Best Buy is in the midst (and probably will still be then) of their typical buy X for $499 (not sure of the number, but whatever) and get interest free financing for 24 months. Or something similar. That makes it easier to do than paying up front.

I don't have HD or an HDTV yet, but I was considering getting a S3 depending on price (you know...future thinking). But even with what I said above about BB financing, I would likely hold off and see what comes of ComcasTiVo.

[stevel]

$800 is right where I expected the price to hit. And Pony told me that anyone's eSATA drive should work (I asked him this specific question at the con.)

[Squeege96]

Zoinks! $800 Bones? That is a little steep. Funny how quickly people have eaten up this information though.

I'll probably dive in though, depending on what kind of rebates are involved. ($600 seems like a VERY reasonable number to sell to my wife...) :up:

[cwoody222]

$800's too rich for me :(

Oh well.


I don't understand this "it's not for the average consumer". However... cable DVRs that do HD ARE. So what's TiVo hoping to achieve here? A few sales on a niche product? It'll die on the vine that way...

[Tippy]

I'm in. I'll gladly dump my SA 8300. Extra money from a teaching job this semester will smooth the way for the wife to sign off. I just hope I don't have any MRV transfer issues for the SD content to my other SD units.

[cbordman]

Why are you WOW! about it costing $800 ?

The High-Def DIRECTiVo was about $999 when it first came out.

$799 sounds like a bargain to me considering what it will do.

I didn't buy that device either..

[classicX]

Anyone remember how much the original 14 hour Tivo cost?

No offense, but we're in a different time than when the first Tivo came out. First generation technology is ALWAYS comparatively more expensive then their more powerful and more capable "children."

I remember paying $2300 for a 333Mhz Pentium system about 8 or 9 years ago. Now I can spend less thatn $1000 for a 3Ghz system. 10 times the power, less than half of the price.

I don't image that $799 would be the real cost, but if it is, you can count me out. I would need to buy two and $1600 for Tivo service vs. the two cable DVRs I have now that do basically the same thing would be a gross misuse of funds in my opinion.

Here's a idea: instead of using a credit card, try taking the money out in cash, and count it out at the cashier. If you don't say to yourself "wow, this is a LOT of money to watch TV" then by all means, proceed. If it begins to look like you could do better things with that money, then you probably aren't making the wisest decision.

[drew2k]

Drew rationalizes large purchases with a one year horizon, not a three year horizon. That's a typical, conservative perspective, for something where you're not absolutely sure you'll get full value out of it over a longer period of time. :up:

Thanks. You pretty much summed up what my answer would have been! :)

[drew2k]

I don't understand this "it's not for the average consumer". However... cable DVRs that do HD ARE. So what's TiVo hoping to achieve here? A few sales on a niche product? It'll die on the vine that way...I agree with you. I also wonder where those who say TiVo announced this is not for the average consumer got their info from. Is it on TiVo's web site somewhere? In FCC filings? Where and when did TiVo announce that the S3 is for the above-average or high-end consumer? Wouldn't shareholders be a little upset at that, as shouldn't TiVo be marketing to the masses, and not just the technophiles?

[Bierboy]

I just checked the Crutchfield Web site (for any possible mentione of the S3), and it now appears that they no longer carry TiVo products. When did this happen?

[dig_duggler]

I don't understand this "it's not for the average consumer". However... cable DVRs that do HD ARE. So what's TiVo hoping to achieve here? A few sales on a niche product? It'll die on the vine that way...

Exactly. Your direct competition is appealing to the average consumer. Unless that price falls fast, you are not going to have many holiday sales.

I consider myself an above average consumer if you will. But that's even too much for me. And when you take into account the latest software, the headaches with the rebates, what's my real motivation to take a chance here? Not to mention how ill prepared I imagine most cable companies are for cable cards...

It's a premium price for a muddy waters situation.

[ZeoTiVo]

I don't understand this "it's not for the average consumer". However... cable DVRs that do HD ARE. So what's TiVo hoping to achieve here? A few sales on a niche product? It'll die on the vine that way...

Exactly. Your direct competition is appealing to the average consumer. Unless that price falls fast, you are not going to have many holiday sales.

I consider myself an above average consumer if you will. But that's even too much for me. And when you take into account the latest software, the headaches with the rebates, what's my real motivation to take a chance here? Not to mention how ill prepared I imagine most cable companies are for cable cards...

It's a premium price for a muddy waters situation.

TiVo can not compete directly with a leased device from the cable company. That is why they add the many features like TiVoToGo, MRV, Kid Zone etc.. and look to compete on being a better product that justifies the larger price. There has not been an HD DVR like this on the market yet. Sony had something but it did not have all the TiVo features. Many people complained about the 999$ price of the HD DirectTiVo but they went off the shelf and it was hard to find one to buy. Slowly over time the price went down to about 350$ today. Why is it a mystery that the S3 will do the same thing and is indeed trying very hard to not look like a direct competitor to a leased HD DVR from the cable company?

[cwoody222]

TiVo can not compete directly with a leased device from the cable company.

They should at least TRY.

If not, they'll fail.


A consumer product like this priced at $800 is just insane, in my opinion...

[bkdtv]

A consumer product like this priced at $800 is just insane, in my opinion...
This technology is expensive.

Many here are familiar with those Motorola DCT-6416 DVRs used by Comcast. If you tamper with one of those (such as to try and upgrade the hard drive), Comcast adds a line item to your bill of a little over $700.

Cable is able to subsidize the cost of their equipment through all sorts of other price increases (for every ~$20 they pay for programming, you pay $50+) on top of their own $10-$18/mo DVR fee, but Tivo is limited to the service fee until they can create revenue through other services.

[MickeS]

Consider the $999 price for the new Samsung BDP-1000 blu-ray disc player... which one do you think will get the most use between that and the TiVo? I don't think $800 is an unreasonable first-generation (which it is - there's no other product like it on the market) price.

[Riverdome]

The $800 prive point is just about where I expected the S3 to fall upon release. The question for each of us remains is upgrading from HD cable boxes to S3 worth $800 + service? While my family hates the HD Moto box we are stuck with I can't justify the expense. I'll reconsider with every price reduction, but with SDV and expected cable card woes (my cable company is a small regional carrier who sucks more than the average carrier) I'm not sure if I'll ever be a S3 owner. :o

[dig_duggler]

I don't think $800 is an unreasonable first-generation (which it is - there's no other product like it on the market) price.

There's a product pretty damn comparable from my cable company in terms of hardware. I haven't gotten one because I hate the interface. But I'm a picky. Most people aren't.

And do not even try to rationalize that HMO, etc is worth $800. And I don't think anyone here would argue that there isn't a good point to made that the software has taken a step back in recent months.

You introduce it now, with something comparable to consumers available for a fraction of the cost from a cable company right before holiday shopping, you aren't going to make a dent.

And I'm aware that many will cry that the two products aren't comparable. But two of my friends went that route and they aren't looking back. They are appealing to far too small of a market.

[Bierboy]

[I]I don't understand this "it's not for the average consumer"....TiVo PLAINLY stated at CES 2006 that they would not subsidize this box as they had previous boxes because it would be higher end product. I'm not sure if those were the exact words, but very close.
The $800 prive point is just about where I expected the S3 to fall upon release. The question for each of us remains is upgrading from HD cable boxes to S3 worth $800 + service? ...That is not the question for EACH of us. I have basic analog cable and OTA HD and no HD cable box.

[Riverdome]

"TCD648250B"

So what ever happened to the "A" model? Is there a possibility of another unit that may be priced differently?

[dylanursula]

The $800 prive point is just about where I expected the S3 to fall upon release. The question for each of us remains is upgrading from HD cable boxes to S3 worth $800 + service? While my family hates the HD Moto box we are stuck with I can't justify the expense. I'll reconsider with every price reduction, but with SDV and expected cable card woes (my cable company is a small regional carrier who sucks more than the average carrier) I'm not sure if I'll ever be a S3 owner. :o

Riverdome
I have to agree with you on this one. I want a S3 but at $800 smackers is pretty darn expensive. Add to the uncertainity of SDV it is a hard sell to the wife. I just got my S2DT about 15 days ago for the bedroom but am prob going to send that back now as I dont anticipate any savings from having that and a S3. Come on Comcast TIVO lol.

[drew2k]

TiVo PLAINLY stated at CES 2006 that they would not subsidize this box as they had previous boxes because it would be higher end product. I'm not sure if those were the exact words, but very close.So this was a verbal statement?! Seems kind of a short-sighted decision if it still holds true.

Bierboy, this isn't directed at you, but I'm amazed at how statements from CES are either ridiculed ("that's vaporware - we'll never see that!") or upheld as gospel ("they said it - it will happen!").

[classicX]

Consider the $999 price for the new Samsung BDP-1000 blu-ray disc player... which one do you think will get the most use between that and the TiVo? I don't think $800 is an unreasonable first-generation (which it is - there's no other product like it on the market) price.

In that case, one must also consider the fact that Samsung's sales of these players has been lackluster, at best. People have been buying Blu-Ray movies without even having a player because they are waiting for the PS3.

Taking all things into account, Blu-Ray, while expensive, is targeted towards the masses. They are trying to replace the DVD player, a device with an extremely high market penetration. Comparing it to Tivo is a mismatch.

Excluding the technology differences, the price point for the Blu-Ray player ($1000) is a cause for great concern, mainly because it's direct competition, HD-DVD, is selling for half that, and in much greater numbers. (On a side note, HD-DVD discs are generally resampled from master, while it seems that the Blu-Ray discs out now are not, resulting in a phenomenally better picture on HD-DVD.)

With that knowledge, and considering the monthly costs moot (because we assume that they will be very close or equal), You can compare the "cost" of Tivo vs. Cable - ~$800 versus $0.00.

ANY up front cost can be seen as a detriment, but a high one would exclude all but the Tivo fanatics. The ones with the money to buy one (or more) is even a smaller subset.

Given that, Tivo will have major problems if they release at that price with no rebates or bundles, because they'll be selling only to 1) hardcore Tivo fans 2) with HDTV and 3) with money. And even that's not a guarantee, because I fit into that category, and wouldn't buy it at that price.

Good luck Tivo.

</ramble_rant>

[terryfoster]

I'm amazed at how statements from CES are either ridiculed ("that's vaporware - we'll never see that!") or upheld as gospel ("they said it - it will happen!").

I think it all depends on the source. My understanding is that we can trust the source (can't for the life of me think of his name) that was at CES.

[cwoody222]

Tivo is limited to the service fee until they can create revenue through other services.

...and how long have they had to create such services?

HMO?

TiVoToGo? (the $ you have to pay for the ability to easily encode for PSP, iPod, etc)

TiVoCast downloads?

TiVo's had plenty of time and opportunity to create other revenue channels. They've failed every time.

[dig_duggler]

I hope the dissenting voices here can be seen for what they are, people who want to see Tivo do good but see this as a bad price point. I really want Tivo to succeed and see this as (another) horrible business decision. As stated before , only the most hardcore of the hardcore Tivo fanatics WITH a good bit of money will get this at $800. I am hardcore and have the cash, but there is no way I can justify this.

Really, this seems to be the last hurrah for Tivo. They have already started farming out their software and it seems like that's Tivo's future. I understand that these are expensive but they are going after such a small market I don't see how they can possibly succeed...

[as6o]

So, are there enough details yet about the Comcast DVR to construct a comparison to what we know about the Series 3?

I'm in a Comcast market (currently a DirecTV subscriber) that is waiting for a good cable based HD+Tivo solution (the HD sats are blocked by trees at my house) before I start investing in HD gear. Although $799 is within my budget, I should probably take a look at the Comcast DVR too. What are the +/- between the two? I realize the Comcast DVR will probably support multi-direction communication for PPV, etc. but will it support any of the "other" Tivo features (TivoToGo, the home networking stuff, etc.?) Do we even know when the Comcast box will be released?

Thanks for any info.

-Aaron

[jfh3]

Here's a idea: instead of using a credit card, try taking the money out in cash, and count it out at the cashier. If you don't say to yourself "wow, this is a LOT of money to watch TV" then by all means, proceed.

Actually, if more people did this, Tivo might end up selling MORE Series 3 boxes. :)

(Let me see .... wow - I'm giving the cable company $80 every month and I really don't watch all that. Maybe I'll just switch to basic cable or antenna, but I would still really like a hidef DVR ...)

(Added a smiley - I really don't think this will happen!)

[classicX]

I hope the dissenting voices here can be seen for what they are, people who want to see Tivo do good but see this as a bad price point. I really want Tivo to succeed and see this as (another) horrible business decision. As stated before , only the most hardcore of the hardcore Tivo fanatics WITH a good bit of money will get this at $800. I am hardcore and have the cash, but there is no way I can justify this.

Really, this seems to be the last hurrah for Tivo. They have already started farming out their software and it seems like that's Tivo's future. I understand that these are expensive but they are going after such a small market I don't see how they can possibly succeed...

I don't see us as "dissenting voices" - this is the general concensus. I know a lot of people here (read: 25) would still pay that price despite their better judgement. I just don't see how Tivo is going to garner new subscriptions with this price - people who have HDTV like to watch TV. They would probably benefit from a DVR. Most of them know about Tivo, and know that they don't have an HDTV offering. Once the S3 is released, they will find out. And balk at the price.

I hope Tivo is saving up to launch a massive marketing campaign - tv commercials (obviously people who don't have Tivo will be the only one's seeing these, ROFL), magazine ads, billboards, the whole nine.

[jfh3]

I wonder where those who say TiVo announced this is not for the average consumer got their info from.

This topic was addressed on either the 4Q or 1Q results call earlier this year. I don't remember the exact quotes - Tivo didn't use the term "average consumer", but indicated their plans were for the Series 3 to be a high end product not for the masses and they weren't going to subsidize the hardware costs, at least to the extent that had been done in the past with the Series 2.

There were apparently similar comments made in January at CES.

[cwoody222]

but will it support any of the "other" Tivo features (TivoToGo, the home networking stuff, etc.?) Do we even know when the Comcast box will be released?

Thanks for any info.

-Aaron

Rumor has it that Comcast has NOT opted to turn off HMO features like DirecTV has.

However, I highly doubt TiVoToGo will be enabled since it may be copyright violations since it's a digital copy, unlike SA TiVos.

[jsmeeker]

$800 is right where I expected the price to hit. And Pony told me that anyone's eSATA drive should work (I asked him this specific question at the con.)


I recall the same thing as well. It actually suprised me a bit, because when I asked Pony the same question back in January, he seemed to imply (to the best of my recollection) that only TiVo "branded" external drives would "officially work". I guess maybe they planned to sell "blessed" drives, but would look the other way, as they do now, if somone were to "hack" the TiVo.

[classicX]

Actually, if more people did this, Tivo might end up selling MORE Series 3 boxes.

(Let me see .... wow - I'm giving the cable company $80 every month and I really don't watch all that. Maybe I'll just switch to basic cable or antenna, but I would still really like a hidef DVR ...)

Entirely possible but highly improbable. Personally, I 1) don't pay that much for cable and 2) would be watching every $20 I count and thinking "I could have this for that much." $800 is more than the price of the majority of consumer electronics. Most people are spending between $1000 and $2000 for their new HDTVs - to ask them to spend another $800 on to of that just seems excessive to me.

Or perhaps there are people with money burning a hole in their pocket who are waiting for an HD Tivo to buy that HDTV.

Or perhaps you could just hire a person to sit in your house all day to record your season passes, watch TV and record suggestions for you, and yell to other rooms what's happening (HMO!).

[jfh3]

I hope the dissenting voices here can be seen for what they are, people who want to see Tivo do good but see this as a bad price point. I really want Tivo to succeed and see this as (another) horrible business decision. As stated before , only the most hardcore of the hardcore Tivo fanatics WITH a good bit of money will get this at $800. I am hardcore and have the cash, but there is no way I can justify this.

Really, this seems to be the last hurrah for Tivo. They have already started farming out their software and it seems like that's Tivo's future. I understand that these are expensive but they are going after such a small market I don't see how they can possibly succeed...

So what's a better business decision? Sell the boxes at a loss, with the possibility that they'll never recoup that money? How is that possibly a better option for Tivo? I'm sure Tivo isn't saying "Wow - these boxes only cost $100; let's sell them for $800 and see how much of a killing we can make". (Ask you cable company how much your "free" DVR actually costs if you want to buy one and not lease it every month forever).

(And they aren't "farming out their software" - they are developing versions for other hardware platforms).

[NatasNJ]

$800 keeps me with Directv for awhile longer. Verizon TV will have to wait...

[jfh3]

So, are there enough details yet about the Comcast DVR to construct a comparison to what we know about the Series 3?

Nope. And it's not a new Comcast DVR, just a software load for existing boxes. About the only thing we know for sure is that the Comcast boxes have about 1/2 the storage and aren't expandable.

The Comcast software is in beta test in some (primarily) east coast markets, and expected to start rolling out sometime 4Q, through there has been speculation that this will be delayed into 2007.

We don't know which of Tivo's non-core features will be available on the Comcast platform, but the initial press release seemed to indicate it would be more than what DirecTV provided.

[dig_duggler]

And they aren't "farming out their software" - they are developing versions for other hardware platforms

That's farming out your software. Only tivo's most valuble asset and all...


As for selling at losses, that's what gaming companies do all the time. They recoup in game sales. Also, that's what Tivo is CURRENTLY DOING with their s2's...

[jfh3]

Entirely possible but highly improbable. .

I agree, and have edited my post to add a smiley.

Most people that can afford a Series 3 wouldn't use the "count cash" approach. Those that have to probably shouldn't buy one anyway.

I'd love to see the box closer to $500 and it'll eventually get there. But given the hardware costs of all the other HD DVR solutions on the market (e.g. purchasing costs), I don't see how Tivo can sell one at that price point without losing money.

[jfh3]

As for selling at losses, that's what gaming companies do all the time. They recoup in game sales. Also, that's what Tivo is CURRENTLY DOING with their s2's...

At the moment, Tivo only has essentially only one other product to sell and that's the monthly service. If that were $50 like the cost of the average game cartridge, they might be able to afford to subdize the box more, just like the cable companies do with their DVRs. But at $12.95/month (or for many potential Series 3 owners, $6.95 per month), there's little room to fund a hardware subsidy.

You are correct that Tivo is currently subdizing the hardware of the Series 2. That's the box for the masses. Tivo has said they aren't going to be doing the same thing for the Series 3.

[classicX]

I'd love to see the box closer to $500 and it'll eventually get there. But given the hardware costs of all the other HD DVR solutions on the market (e.g. purchasing costs), I don't see how Tivo can sell one at that price point without losing money.

Actually, I just got a new perspective.

Since Tivo boxes aren't "made to order" like computers, they have a stock, which they ALREADY paid for. Which scenario is better:

A. Selling half their stock at or slightly above cost, while the other half just sits around collecting dust.

B. Selling ALL of their stock at a slight loss.

Now personally I favor scenario B. The first one means that they lost half of what they spent on the stock, with no subscriptions on any of the unsold boxes. The second one means that while they may lose up to half their costs on the boxes themselves, they have double the subscriptions. And that assumes that they are selling them half cost.

If I had to chose, I'd rather lose half my money and have 20,000 revenue streams than lose half my money and have 10,000 revenue streams.

[TiVo Troll]

TiVo can not compete directly with a leased device from the cable company. That is why they add the many features like TiVoToGo, MRV, Kid Zone etc.. and look to compete on being a better product that justifies the larger price. There has not been an HD DVR like this on the market yet. Sony had something but it did not have all the TiVo features. Many people complained about the 999$ price of the HD DirectTiVo but they went off the shelf and it was hard to find one to buy. Slowly over time the price went down to about 350$ today. Why is it a mystery that the S3 will do the same thing and is indeed trying very hard to not look like a direct competitor to a leased HD DVR from the cable company?

Sony's HD DVR is discontinued and other than on eBay is no longer available. I've got one and it's fine with single tuner and TVGOS (w/manual channel mapping as necessary) which uitilizes a CableCARD for scrambled channels. (I've scheduled a CableCARD installation next week, but then will be away for two weeks so won't be able to immediately report on CC functionality.) Priced around $700. Sony's offering wasn't appreciably cheaper than TiVo's more feature laden dual tuner Series 3.

For $800, TiVo's dual tuner hi-def DVR is not expensive at all! Apparently many people are just spoiled nowadays by how relatively cheap so many consumer electronics products have become.

The future of TiVo likely depends on its getting the right deals from cable companies to provide software for cable DVR's. Hardware just doesn't seem to generate enough income to turn a profit, overall.

So snap up the legendary Series 3 dual tuner "standalone" OTA/cable TiVo before TiVo brand DVR's become collectors' items and TiVo is just a "provided by" name on OEM cable co. DVR's!

[Bierboy]

I just checked the Crutchfield Web site (for any possible mentione of the S3), and it now appears that they no longer carry TiVo products. When did this happen?Responding to my own post, here's what Crutchfield has to say about carrying the S3...We currently do not have any TIVO products, but this will likely change in the coming months as we approach Christmas. The newest HD version is coming and we will likely have the new products. Please check back with us in a few months.

[TiVo Troll]

Excluding the technology differences, the price point for the Blu-Ray player ($1000) is a cause for great concern, mainly because it's direct competition, HD-DVD, is selling for half that, and in much greater numbers. (On a side note, HD-DVD discs are generally resampled from master, while it seems that the Blu-Ray discs out now are not, resulting in a phenomenally better picture on HD-DVD.)

Blu-Ray's first player is a bit flakey as compared to HD-DVD according to the first review in Sound and Vision. It's too soon to predict that battle's outcome. Perhaps the quite decent quality available from regular 480p DVD's will slow both new formats at this point.

I still believe that a single or dual Series 2 which can control digital STB's from cable, satellite, and OTA should be in TiVo's mix at this point.

Good luck Tivo.

Amen.

[jfh3]

Actually, I just got a new perspective.

Since Tivo boxes aren't "made to order" like computers, they have a stock, which they ALREADY paid for. Which scenario is better:

A. Selling half their stock at or slightly above cost, while the other half just sits around collecting dust.

B. Selling ALL of their stock at a slight loss.

Now personally I favor scenario B.

I agree - B is better.

How do we know that's not what Tivo is doing? I'm sure their initial production run takes into account research on how many they expect to sell at $800 as opposed to what they might sell at $500.

[Crazydiamond]

I have two series 2 units.

There are several features I want in a new TIVO - starting with the Top feature and working down.

1) Cablecard ( Ya - I know all the issues - and I still want it)
2) Dual Tuner
3) More Storage
4) HD

To be honest number 4 is not too important to me now - or for the next few years - until more substantial number of HD channels are available on cable (say 25% or more).


So in order to get items the first three items - I am going to have to pay the premium for Series 3 with HD - unless they issue a Series 2 DT with Cablecard which I guess they won't.

[bkdtv]

Like Tivo Troll says, until recently, Sony was selling a single tuner CableCard/OTA DVR for about $700. It would only record one channel at a time. It didn't support external hard drive expansion. It didn't offer an ethernet connection and didn't support any kind of networking. It didn't offer any kind of PC/Mac integration.

It didn't have a monthly fee, but it didn't have the Tivo software; rather, it used an updated version of the TVGuide software found on DVD Recorders.

Sony didn't make money on it so it was discontinued.

[cbordman]

The Sony did not have recurring service fees, did it?

[jfh3]

Sony didn't make money on it so it was discontinued.

And there were apparently quite a few support problems with customers that had problems getting accurate TVGOS guide data from a local broadcaster, which hastened the demise of the DHG series.

Nice box if you can receive the guide data and deal with the TVGOS limitations and the not-so-elegant interface.

[jfh3]

The Sony did not have recurring service fees, did it?

No.

[Bierboy]

And, I had the Sony DHG for several months earlier this year. Nice PQ, but lousy TVGOS interface with, as mentioned, spotty dependability on accuracy of listings (or even any at all). Returned it, and saved the $ for S3.

[NickIN]

If you buy it at Best Buy are you still required to commit to a service contract? Is it possible that if you buy it from TiVo combined with a service contract that the price of the unit would be somewhat lower?

[Bierboy]

If you buy it at Best Buy are you still required to commit to a service contract? Is it possible that if you buy it from TiVo combined with a service contract that the price of the unit would be somewhat lower?If you buy retail, under TiVo's current plans, you are not required to commit to a service contract. You pay more up front, but don't get locked in to any payment committment. Generally, since they began offering the contracts, the units have been less expensive with the service contract than at retail outlets.

[danieljanderson]

What are the chances that TiVo will use the same pricing model they currently use on the SD models?

....$20.00 per month. No upfront hardware cost.

Or something like it.

[ZeoTiVo]

Actually, I just got a new perspective.

Since Tivo boxes aren't "made to order" like computers, they have a stock, which they ALREADY paid for. Which scenario is better:

A. Selling half their stock at or slightly above cost, while the other half just sits around collecting dust.

B. Selling ALL of their stock at a slight loss.
uummm what is wrong with C - sell half their stock at above cost - then lower the price and sell the other half.


Personally I predict threads on trying to find an S3 to buy ;)

[Welshdog]

Those of you who perceive the $799 price as "high" need to consider just how many peple there are out there who buy expensive high end AV gear. For now that is the target market. There are so many companies making crazy expensive audio and video equipment - and they seem to be very successful. For example look at this page:

http://www.ultimateavmag.com/buyersguides/discplayersult/

Yes that is a $6000 DVD player. Apparently people drop this kind of scratch every day without blinking.

Some of these folks are going to want a machine like the S3 and I think the market is big enough that Tivo will have some success with it. I can't afford the $6k DVD unit, but I can afford the S3 and will most likely buy one next year. That is AFTER I get a HDTV display and my dream DVD player, the Denon DVD-2930CI (http://www.hometheaterblog.com/hometheater/2006/08/denon_dvd2930ci.html) which BTW is about the same price as the S3.

I also think that the S3 to some degree is a proof of concept product and that Tivo will use what they have learned with S3 to make other devices that record HD - eventually at a lower price point. The chipsets that handle digital TV endocidng and processing, both SD and HD, will drop in price as more and more people adopt HD.

[ZeoTiVo]

What are the chances that TiVo will use the same pricing model they currently use on the SD models?

....$20.00 per month. No upfront hardware cost.

Or something like it.


it would take them 9.5 years to get the 800$ on hardware out of that. I can see them doing 3 years at 33$ - that would recoup 700$ for hardware with a subscription rate of 12.95 per month added in.

People would be willing to go three years committment IF they did not have worries about SDV

[MickeS]

I hope Tivo is saving up to launch a massive marketing campaign - tv commercials (obviously people who don't have Tivo will be the only one's seeing these, ROFL), magazine ads, billboards, the whole nine.

LOL :D... oh... you were serious *wipes tears of laughter from eyes*

TiVo will of course fail miserably with the marketing of S3, like they have failed with every single ad campaign before it. They'll probably come up with great ideas like "house parties" or maybe some weird campaign for magazines aimed at people who don't watch TV...

[greg_burns]

I have two series 2 units.

There are several features I want in a new TIVO - starting with the Top feature and working down.

1) Cablecard ( Ya - I know all the issues - and I still want it)
2) Dual Tuner
3) More Storage
4) HD

To be honest number 4 is not too important to me now - or for the next few years - until more substantial number of HD channels are available on cable (say 25% or more).


So in order to get items the first three items - I am going to have to pay the premium for Series 3 with HD - unless they issue a Series 2 DT with Cablecard which I guess they won't.

You can get #3 (more storage) easy enough w/o buying an S3...

[bicker]

So what's a better business decision? Sell the boxes at a loss, with the possibility that they'll never recoup that money? How is that possibly a better option for Tivo?Please understand that sometimes there is no good answers. There are many cases where there is simply not a context for making a profit on an offering.

Also, please keep in mind that TiVo has other options, i.e., selling to cable companies (exclusively). I'm not sure if that's potentially profitable either, but at least it is another opportunity.

[bicker]

And they aren't "farming out their software" - they are developing versions for other hardware platforms That's farming out your software. "Farming out" typically means having someone else do the work, and selling it as your own. What TiVo is doing is "porting" their software, not farming it out.

[classicX]

Those of you who perceive the $799 price as "high" need to consider just how many peple there are out there who buy expensive high end AV gear. For now that is the target market. There are so many companies making crazy expensive audio and video equipment - and they seem to be very successful. For example look at this page:

http://www.ultimateavmag.com/buyersguides/discplayersult/

Yes that is a $6000 DVD player. Apparently people drop this kind of scratch every day without blinking.

Some of these folks are going to want a machine like the S3 and I think the market is big enough that Tivo will have some success with it. I can't afford the $6k DVD unit, but I can afford the S3 and will most likely buy one next year. That is AFTER I get a HDTV display and my dream DVD player, the Denon DVD-2930CI (http://www.hometheaterblog.com/hometheater/2006/08/denon_dvd2930ci.html) which BTW is about the same price as the S3.

I also think that the S3 to some degree is a proof of concept product and that Tivo will use what they have learned with S3 to make other devices that record HD - eventually at a lower price point. The chipsets that handle digital TV endocidng and processing, both SD and HD, will drop in price as more and more people adopt HD.

I buy pretty high-end equipment and would still balk at $799 for an S3. But that's beside the point.

You're overlooking the fact that those companies don't build significant amounts of these units for "stock" and then sell them. Most of those items are small stock (only 5 or 10 in stock, or LESS). The companies don't spend the money up front - any time you want to buy them, you have to order them and wait several weeks if not months for that kind of equipment to come in.

Would you wait 6-8 weeks for your S3 after you order it?

People who buy Gryphon's "Poseidon" speakers (http://www.audiosalon.co.uk/gryphonposeidon.html) at $130,000 per pair would probably have no problem with $800 for a Tivo, but that's assuming they even cared to buy one.

If that's Tivo's target market, fine. But these people buy those things 1) for quality and 2) because no one else HAS them. And if that's the case, why not charge $3000? $4000? Surely the same people would pay that for an HD Tivo that no one else can get.

[petew]

What are the chances that TiVo will use the same pricing model they currently use on the SD models?

....$20.00 per month. No upfront hardware cost.

Or something like it.

Actually the current pricing model is zero down $20/month for a basic Series 2, anything better involves a "box fee" so we may eventually see S3 available in a bundle but with a very hefty box fee.

[MickeS]

If you buy retail, under TiVo's current plans, you are not required to commit to a service contract.

Is that really true? I thought all new subs required a 12 month minimum commitment.

[ah30k]

I bought retail and had to commit to 1 year.

[TiVo Troll]

If you buy it at Best Buy are you still required to commit to a service contract? Is it possible that if you buy it from TiVo combined with a service contract that the price of the unit would be somewhat lower?

Maybe I'm completely misunderstanding your meaning, but TiVo Service Plans (http://www.tivo.com/5.11.6.asp) require a 12 month comitment:

At the time of activation of a TiVo Service Only Payment Plan, you will be required to commit to the TiVo service for a minimum of one (1) year.
You may choose to either: (a) pay for your TiVo service on a monthly basis at $12.95 per month; or (b) prepay for your TiVo service.
If you choose to prepay for your TiVo service, you may prepay for your TiVo service for either one (1) year at $155.40, two (2) years at $299, or three (3) years at $399.
A 30 day Money Back Guarantee applies to initial activations only of TiVo service. See full terms of TiVo's 30 day Money Back Guarantee for complete details. Excludes TiVo service renewals, hardware replacements, and upgrades.
An early termination fee of up to $150.00 applies to your one (1) year monthly TiVo Service Only Payment Plan if cancelled prior to the end of your commitment, except as permitted under TiVo's 30 day Money Back Guarantee. An early termination fee of the lesser of $150.00 or the amount owed on the remaining term of your TiVo Service Only Payment Plan commitment will be charged to you.

[petew]

Those of you who perceive the $799 price as "high" need to consider just how many peple there are out there who buy expensive high end AV gear.

The bottom line is the cost to build the S3, and it's going to be expensive because the chipsets being used are not cheap, plus Tivo will want to recoup some of their devlopment costs. Over time the components will drop in price and the S3 will become cheaper.

Or look at it another way: Comcast are funding the cost of the Comcast DVR hardware so the royalties Tivo get from Comcast will be pure profit. If Tivo sell the S3 at a loss then which unit would Tivo prefer we use?

[classicX]

Is that really true? I thought all new subs required a 12 month minimum commitment.

That's for retail stores though, where you go in, get the box and take it home.

But it's a dumb model for Tivo - it works for cell phones because yeah, you can pay more for an "unlocked" cell phone, but the only reason you are paying more is because once you have it, then you have a choice of providers.

The only advantage to buying it at Best Buy is the fact that you don't have to wait for the box and their return policy.

Maybe someone should sell guide data for Tivos and give them some service competition...

[jgerry]

Sony's HD DVR is discontinued and other than on eBay is no longer available. I've got one and it's fine with single tuner and TVGOS (w/manual channel mapping as necessary) which uitilizes a CableCARD for scrambled channels. (I've scheduled a CableCARD installation next week, but then will be away for two weeks so won't be able to immediately report on CC functionality.) Priced around $700. Sony's offering wasn't appreciably cheaper than TiVo's more feature laden dual tuner Series 3.

For $800, TiVo's dual tuner hi-def DVR is not expensive at all! Apparently many people are just spoiled nowadays by how relatively cheap so many consumer electronics products have become.
You bet I'm spoiled. I compare $800 up front / $12.95 per month for a new S3 Tivo to the $10/month rental from the cable company, and it's no contest. The monthly fee for the Tivo is more than the whole rental from the cable co. Yes the cable co box sucks, but it does work, and it's cheap.

If the cable company can lease me a box for $10/month, why can't Tivo lease me a box for $15-$25/month, which would include the hardware and the monthly fee? The upfront cost, although I can certainly afford it, is putting me off.

[MickeS]

It's true. That's for retail stores though, where you go in, get the box and take it home. The commitments / prepay options are on the website only.


See TiVo Troll's post above. Every sub requires a 12 month minimum commitment. It's really idiotic.

[Bierboy]

Is that really true? I thought all new subs required a 12 month minimum commitment.Sorry...I stand corrected. I was thinking of my situation where I will buy retail, but transfer my $12.95/month on my current S2 (with no contract obligation) to the S3 (or add the S3 to my S2 for $6.95/month for the MSD without a contract). So, in my situation, no contract is required.

[TiVo Troll]

You bet I'm spoiled. I compare $800 up front / $12.95 per month for a new S3 Tivo to the $10/month rental from the cable company, and it's no contest. The monthly fee for the Tivo is more than the whole rental from the cable co. Yes the cable co box sucks, but it does work, and it's cheap.

If the cable company can lease me a box for $10/month, why can't Tivo lease me a box for $15-$25/month, which would include the hardware and the monthly fee? The upfront cost, although I can certainly afford it, is putting me off.

So what's wrong with these (http://www.tivo.com/2.0.plans.step.1.asp)?

[Riverdome]

You bet I'm spoiled. I compare $800 up front / $12.95 per month for a new S3 Tivo to the $10/month rental from the cable company, and it's no contest. The monthly fee for the Tivo is more than the whole rental from the cable co. Yes the cable co box sucks, but it does work, and it's cheap.

If the cable company can lease me a box for $10/month, why can't Tivo lease me a box for $15-$25/month, which would include the hardware and the monthly fee? The upfront cost, although I can certainly afford it, is putting me off.

I think a lot of us are viewing the S3 in this exact manner. Eventually the price for the S3 will come down and it will be much more likely that we will shell out $xxx for the box and then it's only a matter of $12.95/month vs. $10/month. I'll pay more for Tivo but let's not get carried away.

[ZeoTiVo]

People who buy Gryphon's "Poseidon" speakers (http://www.audiosalon.co.uk/gryphonposeidon.html) at $130,000 per pair would probably have no problem with $800 for a Tivo, but that's assuming they even cared to buy one.

If that's Tivo's target market, fine. But these people buy those things 1) for quality and 2) because no one else HAS them. And if that's the case, why not charge $3000? $4000? Surely the same people would pay that for an HD Tivo that no one else can get.

uummm dude - $130,000 for speakers is kind of an extreme don't you think. They would not even know what DVR they are using as someone else took Myth and rebranded it and put it in for them. It would probably be a HTPC that came with a support contract for someone else to deal with the hassles of it

[MichaelK]

i really think the cost to build the things is somewhere in the 500-700 dollar range.

Directv said at the beginning of the year that their cost for HD DVR's at the time was around $600. THe series 3 will be able to get by with some cheaper more integrated 2nd/3rd generation chips that the HR10-250 didn't have but it will also have some adtional stuff tossed in. So it's going to cost them something around 600 just to built- not accounting for any of the time and effort to develop.

Kind of bummed it will be so much and it will make me pause for a minute to think it through but I think that's likely par for the course this Holiday season. As time moves on it will likley drop.

I guess my dream of grabbing 2 on day one is blown, but myself I'll likley get one and then wait for a more "reasonable" price for the second unit...

[ah30k]

The only advantage to buying it at Best Buy is the fact that you don't have to wait for the box and their return policy. ..and you can take advantage of the MSD on this unit. Granted, if you already have an unbundled unit you can shuffle your units around and define the bundled one as your prime ($12.95) and your unbundled as the secondary ($6.95). But if all of your units are 'bundled' from TiVo.com then you can't MSD any of them.

[MickeS]

If the cable company can lease me a box for $10/month, why can't Tivo lease me a box for $15-$25/month

You're right - the problem is that the cable company doesn't lease you a box for $10/month. They just spread the fees out in their package pricing.

[morac]

I'm wondering how release ready the S3 actually is at this point. So far the only things that have been confirmed to be working are HME and basic TiVo functionality. ToGo has been reported to not be working and the external SATA drive may or may not have been implemented. Add to this that this will be the first software revision for the S3 (and bound to have lots of bugs in it) and I wonder how many people will plop down $800 the first day for this.

I predict many people will take a wait and see attitude with the S3 especially if it is only being marketted to high end consumers (who I would hope research their products before putting down close to a grand on it).

I myself will wait and see what features are available at launch and even then I probably won't pick one up until the price drops. There's also the Comcast TiVo box in the mix for me.

[Welshdog]

I buy pretty high-end equipment and would still balk at $799 for an S3. But that's beside the point.
You're overlooking the fact that those companies don't build significant amounts of these units for "stock" and then sell them. Most of those items are small stock (only 5 or 10 in stock, or LESS). The companies don't spend the money up front - any time you want to buy them, you have to order them and wait several weeks if not months for that kind of equipment to come in.I see what you are saying, but I'm not really concerned about Tivo's internal manufacturing/stocking/marketing structure. I'm looking at who will buy the S3 and it seems to me there are plenty of people who will be interested. Let's drag it down a notch or two from the super high end level and just look at a company like Denon. They sell tens of thousands of units every year. I doubt that any of it is build to order. They have some affordable gear, but they sell a lot of the more expensive stuff too. Like the DVD player I'm interested in, same price as the S3 and it is generating a lot of excitement and anticipation.
Would you wait 6-8 weeks for your S3 after you order it?Yes, I'm not an impatient person.People who buy Gryphon's "Poseidon" speakers (http://www.audiosalon.co.uk/gryphonposeidon.html) at $130,000 per pair would probably have no problem with $800 for a Tivo, but that's assuming they even cared to buy one.I have a friend who owned a company in Houston that installed very high end AV systems in the mansions of rich people. The majority of his clients did not know or care about the brand of the equipment. Even if they were specifying super high end. They could have four S3s and not even know it. Some care about their gear, many don't. Nonetheless, they gladly pay, whatever the costs.
If that's Tivo's target market, fine. But these people buy those things 1) for quality and 2) because no one else HAS them. And if that's the case, why not charge $3000? $4000? Surely the same people would pay that for an HD Tivo that no one else can get.I'd like to see Tivo license their software to some of these companies. That way we could get even better hardware, the rich folk could have their exclusivity and we would still have the familiar Tivo interface. And then there just might be a $4000 Tivo.

With 6 Tb of storage. :eek:

[MickeS]

For those of you saying that TiVo has stated S3 is directed towards the high-end market, you might be thinking of this: http://investor.tivo.com/downloads/TiVo_Overview.pdf

See page 8, where they list their target audience "High End Consumers" for the S3.

[Adam1115]

First of all, I don't see why $799 is expensive. Of COURSE it is going to be MUCH higher when it first comes out, as they are still ramping up production and can sell smaller quanities to early adapters in the 2006 Christmas season. As production gets higher, I'm sure the prices will start dropping...

Second, the Comcast TiVo surely won't compete against the high end series 3. Even IF networking and HME are turned on, the thing will only record what, 14 hours? It's very likely that hard drive WON'T be upgradable, and even if it where, you're leasing the box. It's VERY likely that you will be able to upgrade the internal hard drive to a 750 Gig, AND add an external esata...

[classicX]

uummm dude - $130,000 for speakers is kind of an extreme don't you think. They would not even know what DVR they are using as someone else took Myth and rebranded it and put it in for them. It would probably be a HTPC that came with a support contract for someone else to deal with the hassles of it

My point exactly. I guess it's less "high end" and more "exotic." I was going for an effect here... besides, those aren't even the most expensive speakers that you can buy. Not even close.

Let's drag it down a notch or two from the super high end level and just look at a company like Denon. They sell tens of thousands of units every year.

Denon also isn't selling equipment with a five year life expectancy, and asking people to pay monthly fees to use their equipment. I can easily justify spending $2000 on an A/V receiver because I expect to have it for 10+ years without having to replace parts or needing to "hack" it.

I'm just saying, personally, I can't justify to myself (let alone to my wife) spending $800 on a machine and spending the same amount (OR MORE!!!) per month when I can spend $0.00 and still record shows that I want. That's the bottom line.

And for the record, she is not unreasonable, and enjoys technology as well. She would definitely enjoy a Tivo. But the fact of the matter is that I can justify to her spending $2500 on a subwoofer and $1000 on a printer, but she still has a problem with an $800 Tivo.

[classicX]

Second, the Comcast TiVo surely won't compete against the high end series 3. Even IF networking and HME are turned on, the thing will only record what, 14 hours? It's very likely that hard drive WON'T be upgradable, and even if it where, you're leasing the box. It's VERY likely that you will be able to upgrade the internal hard drive to a 750 Gig, AND add an external esata...

If networking and HME are on, you can just get another box from the cable company and put it somewhere else in the house and spend another $15 per month, rather than spend $800 and have to pay between $13 and $20 per month.

[TexasAg]

You're right - the problem is that the cable company doesn't lease you a box for $10/month. They just spread the fees out in their package pricing.

That may be true, but you're paying for the package pricing with or without Tivo. I have Verizon Fios service. I'll either pay:

(a) $35/month for service + $13/month for Motorola DVR; or
(b) $35/month for service + $16/month for Tivo service (or whatever the cost is) + $3/month for CableCards.

I'm willing to pay some extra for the Tivo service and the CableCards because I'm not thrilled with the Motorola DVR. But, I'd have a heck of a time justifying an $800 price tag just to get the Tivo box, and I'm someone who knows what Tivo is and how great the Tivo service/hardware is.

[Welshdog]

And for the record, she is not unreasonable, and enjoys technology as well. She would definitely enjoy a Tivo. But the fact of the matter is that I can justify to her spending $2500 on a subwoofer and she still has a problem with an $800 Tivo.Wow, that is cool. My wife would not allow such a subwoofer. She is a total Tivo addict, and last night when I told her how much the S3 was going to cost I didn't get a complaint. Of course I haven't really lined up all the costs for her yet:

$3000 for flat panel LCD dispaly
$850 for Denon DVD player
$800 for S3 + monthly (we are on lifetime right now)
$300 for HDMI cable to get from the equipment rack to the display.
$250 for HDMI switcher

Anyone want to add something else?

[SCSIRAID]

Just looked at my account information on tivo.com for my S2 with lifetime. I was surprised to see that the settings column indicated 'Transfers ALLOWED'. Whats up with that? I thought transfers were dead.

[MichaelK]

First of all, I don't see why $799 is expensive. Of COURSE it is going to be MUCH higher when it first comes out, as they are still ramping up production and can sell smaller quanities to early adapters in the 2006 Christmas season. As production gets higher, I'm sure the prices will start dropping...

Second, the Comcast TiVo surely won't compete against the high end series 3. Even IF networking and HME are turned on, the thing will only record what, 14 hours? It's very likely that hard drive WON'T be upgradable, and even if it where, you're leasing the box. It's VERY likely that you will be able to upgrade the internal hard drive to a 750 Gig, AND add an external esata...

agreed with all that but not sure you'll be able to upgrade the internal drives anymore.

THe pictures floating around have a big fat warrenty seal on the back of the unit...

[MichaelK]

Just looked at my account information on tivo.com for my S2 with lifetime. I was surprised to see that the settings column indicated 'Transfers ALLOWED'. Whats up with that? I thought transfers were dead.


it's talking about transferring content to or from that unit from another tivo...

[whitmans77]

Just looked at my account information on tivo.com for my S2 with lifetime. I was surprised to see that the settings column indicated 'Transfers ALLOWED'. Whats up with that? I thought transfers were dead.

probably talking about transferring shows from tivo to tivo


whew---800 bux---thats a lil rich for my blood-does anyone know when the comcast /tivo stuff is comin out?>

[ZeoTiVo]

Wow, that is cool. My wife would not allow such a subwoofer. She is a total Tivo addict, and last night when I told her how much the S3 was going to cost I didn't get a complaint. Of course I haven't really lined up all the costs for her yet:

$3000 for flat panel LCD dispaly
$850 for Denon DVD player
$800 for S3 + monthly (we are on lifetime right now)
$300 for HDMI cable to get from the equipment rack to the display.
$250 for HDMI switcher

Anyone want to add something else?


what Sound System ? Add 600$ for a sound system nad you are at $5,000 of which the $800 is 16% of the Total. for such an important component that seems reasonable. This is more the real world high end "TV setup" market that TiVo is shooting for.

[petew]

anyone know when the comcast /tivo stuff is comin out?>

Officially same 2nd half 2006 as the S3. A Comcast employee did post that Comcast techs have recieved training on the new unit, so I would guess it's going to be soon.

[Dan203]

I have no problem paying $800 for a S3. We payed almost that much for the Pioneer DVD-RW unit back when it came out, and it didn't have nearly as many added features. In fact the main reason we bought it is because we liked having instant replay, and using the peanut, when playing DVDs and NOT for the DVD recording functionality.

That being said I suspect that the rebate will apply, since the rebates have always been "service rebates", so when you add that and any internet commerce discounts from etailers like Amazon.com or Buy.com, and it'll probably only end up being about $600.

Dan

[Welshdog]

what Sound System ? Add 600$ for a sound system nad you are at $5,000 of which the $800 is 16% of the Total. for such an important component that seems reasonable.
Already have a Denon 3805 receiver and a Definitive Technology surround speaker system.This is more the real world high end "TV setup" market that TiVo is shooting for.
X-zactly! And there are millions of us.

[bidger]

I can see the $800 price tag, if and when confirmed, since a lot is invested into the development and manufacture of the boxes. But, I can also see how some would balk at the purchase for concerns about the future of Cable Card, SDV, and for those in Cox or Comcast markets considering an integrated unit.

Since I'm in a Time-Warner area, the first two reasons I listed would apply to me. Couple that with the fact that T-W leases HD-capable DVRs in my area for $5/mo., a strategy of DVR service as churn reducer a programming provider can use, but TiVo can't.

Currently I'm a D* sub with an HR10-250, picked up last year during the $299-$100MIR special, and since T-W doesn't offer CBS or FOX in HD in my area, I'm not looking to leave just now. I have my account set up so that I can request another HD-DVR for the cost of shipping, so why would I want to? I just finished a 6 month HBO for $2/mo. and free Showtime special, I get $5 off on the HD package...these are things that TiVo can't do for you.

People are bringing up the fact that the HR10-250 was $1000 at release, but it was the only option for D* subs who wanted to record HD programming. For most cable subs, the option of a leased box exists and it's future-proof with no warranty required. Yeah, I guess the S3 has to be aimed at top shelf consumers.

[terrin81]

At this particular price point, using my Series 2 with a big hard drive, and also getting a Cox HD-DVR for an extra couple dollars a month, and double recording my shows (HD on the Cox DVR and normal on the Tivo) just in case something happens to the HD recording (one of the fun quirks of the cable co's DVR's) so I'll still have a reliable backup looks like my best option.

[btl-a4]

$799 is a little stiff, but here is the creative math I will use to justify it.

Cost of S3 $799
rebate -$150
subtotal $649
Lifetime Card $299
Total $948

Then I'll sell it in 2 years on ebay for $850

Total Cost into S3 $948
Net proceeds from sale $800
Total Cost $148
Cost per month $6.17

I may be a bit off on my numbers, but it's my delusion and I'm the only one I have to convice.

[classicX]

$799 is a little stiff, but here is the creative math I will use to justify it.

Cost of S3 $799
rebate -$150
subtotal $649
Lifetime Card $299
Total $948

Then I'll sell it in 2 years on ebay for $850

Total Cost into S3 $948
Net proceeds from sale $800
Total Cost $148
Cost per month $6.17

I may be a bit off on my numbers, but it's my delusion and I'm the only one I have to convice.

That and the fact that you are counting on a $150 rebate which may or may not be applicable, and you're counting on a certain selling price on Ebay.

[btl-a4]

I may be a bit off on my numbers, but it's my delusion and I'm the only one I have to convice.

Dammit, forgot about my wife again, and she's good with numbers. Oh well I'll give it a try.

[yunlin12]

$300 for HDMI cable to get from the equipment rack to the display.
$250 for HDMI switcher


You may want to check out monoprice (http://www.monoprice.com) for HDMI cables and switches. You may save enough on them to pay for half of your S3.

[btl-a4]

That and the fact that you are counting on a $150 rebate which may or may not be applicable, and you're counting on a certain selling price on Ebay.

Well if I were going to be realistic I'd have to value the Lifetime card at $600 instead of the $300 I paid for it.

[jfh3]

If you buy it at Best Buy are you still required to commit to a service contract


Only if you want to activate the service. :) The only way to activate a Tivo without a one year commitment is to use a 3 month prepaid gift card to activate it. (or lifetime, or 12 month card, which would commit you to a year anyway).


Is it possible that if you buy it from TiVo combined with a service contract that the price of the unit would be somewhat lower?

Anything's possible. Tivo has already run some promotions on bundle pricing, so we could see something similar with the Series 3, though I doubt we'll see any Series 3 promotions until the initial interest calms down.

[lynesjc]

$850 for Denon DVD player

OT, but why on earth would you spend that much on a SD DVD player when you can get an hd dvd player for $500 or less? Regardless of whether blu or hd wins, sd dvd is obsolete.

[Welshdog]

You may want to check out monoprice (http://www.monoprice.com) for HDMI cables and switches. You may save enough on them to pay for half of your S3.

Thanks for that. Are you familiar with the Secrets of Home Theater and High Fidelity website? They have just released a new HDMI Cable BenchMark (http://www.hometheaterhifi.com/other/cable-benchmark/hdmi-cable-benchmark.html) test that I found useful. They don't test the cable from Monoprice, but they do test one from these guys HDTVsupply (http://www.hdtvsupply.com/1080p-hdmi-cable.html) It also has a reasonable price.

[Welshdog]

OT, but why on earth would you spend that much on a SD DVD player when you can get an hd dvd player for $500 or less? Regardless of whether blu or hd wins, sd dvd is obsolete.Neither of the HD disc formats are sorted out yet. Both have issues that I don't want to deal with, and both probably won't do a very good job of scaling up SD DVDs in my collection or that I get from Netflix. It will be a quite a while before Netflix starts renting HD discs I think. The Denon player does an excellent job on scaling. Plus it has the DenonLink proprietary multi-channel audio connection that works with my Denon receiver for SACD and DVD-A. This player will serve me just fine until the HD format wars are over. Here is a quote from the review I linked earlier in this thread:
Needless to say the DVD-2930CI is highly recommended and with the right amount of care this player could conceivably carry you through the entire format war and well beyond, without ever skipping a beat. Regardless of your hi-def DVD plans if you own even a moderate DVD collection and are looking for something above the fold in DVD playback, be sure to audition the Denon DVD-2930CI before making your final decision, your eyes will thank me. Hometheaterblog.com I have learned not to be an early adopter.

[Dan203]

Neither of the HD disc formats are sorted out yet. Both have issues that I don't want to deal with, and both probably won't do a very good job of scaling up SD DVDs in my collection or that I get from Netflix.

Actually I've seen reviews that praise how well the Toshiba HD-DVD player upscales SD DVDs. In fact I believe Sound & Vision said it looked better then even their recomended $1,800 upscaling DVD player.

Also Netflix started renting HD-DVD and Blu-Ray disks on the first day they were released.

Dan

[Welshdog]

Actually I've seen reviews that praise how well the Toshiba HD-DVD player upscales SD DVDs. In fact I believe Sound & Vision said it looked better then even their recomended $1,800 upscaling DVD player.

Also Netflix started renting HD-DVD and Blu-Ray disks on the first day they were released.

Dan

Thanks for the info. This is why forums are a good thing. ;)

[pkaytes]

Second, the Comcast TiVo surely won't compete against the high end series 3. Even IF networking and HME are turned on, the thing will only record what, 14 hours? It's very likely that hard drive WON'T be upgradable, and even if it where, you're leasing the box. It's VERY likely that you will be able to upgrade the internal hard drive to a 750 Gig, AND add an external esata...

Not to mention functionality. I have an HD DVR from my cable company and the thing is a piece of crap. Navigation buttons don't do what you think they'd do, planning and recording programs is a pain (you have to find the program day/date first and then set it to record, at which point you can set a recurring recording). The first run/first run and repeats doesn't work, I often get the same program 5 times because the guide can't tell a first run from a repeat. The buttons on the remote don't do what you'd think they should (and I'm not techno-illiterate). The guide doesn't group episodes of the same show. And after 3 or 4 HD programs/movies, I'm full up.

Sure the rental is cheap, but you get what you pay for. I'd gladly shell out the bucks for a box that has the DVR capablility of a TIVO (Wishlist/Pick Programs solves most of the above problems and the guide appears to be more accurate from TIVO than the cable box provides) and can do high def. I get rid of two crappy cable boxes, the rental on the HD, and the rental on the DVR, along with their crappy remotes.

[Dan203]

Not to mention functionality. I have an HD DVR from my cable company and the thing is a piece of crap.

I believe they were talking about the upcoming upgrade that will allow you to run the TiVo software on your Comcast DVR. The deal has been in the works for over a year and is finally supose to be released sometime in the next few months.

Dan

[blipszyc]

For me $799 is too much. For others, perhaps not. But what I want to know is why does it have to be $799. Why did they go with such a large hard drive out of the gate. Why not go back to their original business model of varying hour units. Sell a 14 hour unit for $399 that uses a small hard drive and a 60 hour unit for $799 that houses a larger drive. Better yet, they could only sell the smaller unit for $399 and offer huge TiVo branded hard drives, guaranteed to work, for $400. (Like the Xbox360 models - Core/Premium) This way they could compete with CableCo's that can subsidize their boxes, but at the same time appeal to those who want the extra recording time.

My wife and I were really psyched to hear that a non Sat HD Tivo was on its way, but it looks like we'll be putting up with the Adelphia DVR for another season.

[seattlewendell]

Why are you WOW! about it costing $800 ?

The High-Def DIRECTiVo was about $999 when it first came out.

$799 sounds like a bargain to me considering what it will do.
I don't care that the original HD Directivo was $999. I just paid $89 for a LCD portable DVD player. 5 years ago my company was selling them for $1000.
$799 is too much. Both cable and satellite options are much much cheaper. $799 is totally out of scale especially combined with monthly service charges. I suspect that this information is incorrect.

[jfh3]

But what I want to know is why does it have to be $799.


Maybe so they wouldn't lose money on the hardware cost.

Why did they go with such a large hard drive out of the gate.


250GB isn't that big when recording hidef - around 30 hours. And the cost difference between a 120 or 160 drive and a 250 drive at wholesale wouldn't be enough to drop the retail price by 1/2.

[MichaelK]

For me $799 is too much. For others, perhaps not. But what I want to know is why does it have to be $799. Why did they go with such a large hard drive out of the gate. Why not go back to their original business model of varying hour units. Sell a 14 hour unit for $399 that uses a small hard drive and a 60 hour unit for $799 that houses a larger drive. Better yet, they could only sell the smaller unit for $399 and offer huge TiVo branded hard drives, guaranteed to work, for $400. (Like the Xbox360 models - Core/Premium) This way they could compete with CableCo's that can subsidize their boxes, but at the same time appeal to those who want the extra recording time.

My wife and I were really psyched to hear that a non Sat HD Tivo was on its way, but it looks like we'll be putting up with the Adelphia DVR for another season.
I dont think the hard drive really amount to a large percentage of the things cost. Maybe going with a 160gig drive would save $50- it's not like it would save hundreds.

A 250 gig drive gets you like 30hours o HD f programming- I guess they just figured that the 14 hours in a 160gig drive was too small and not worth a $50 savings.

So the choice would be
a 30hr 250gig unit for $799
or
a 14hr 160gig unit for $749

People paying 750 probably dont flinch at another 50 bucks to double the capacity. Many would pay another $50 if it would have come with a 400 or 500gig drive.

Maybe later it makes sense to go lower but I dont think the launch matters...

[MichaelK]

I don't care that the original HD Directivo was $999. I just paid $89 for a LCD portable DVD player. 5 years ago my company was selling them for $1000.
$799 is too much. Both cable and satellite options are much much cheaper. $799 is totally out of scale especially combined with monthly service charges. I suspect that this information is incorrect.


remember the price on day 1 is not the price for life.

HMO was $99 dollars and then it became free.

The HD tivo was 999 but now it's 399 (or there abouts) the box is still the same and the manufacturing cost is likely not significantly cheaper. It's not a newer model.

All these threads clearly demonstrate that a certain amount of people will but the box at $799. Why sell it to them for $500 and leave all that money on the table? Once the $799 group is exhausted then they will lower the price.

The price will drop.

The only question is how fast.

even without changing the MSRP they can use rebates and service plans to vastly change the prices...

[Tim N.]

I have two TIVO's now. The Sony Series one talks to a Motorola STB to receive its picture and the quality is reasonable. The TIVO II is getting its signal directly from the cable (no STB) and the picture quality sucks.

If TIVO Series III gets its signal from the cable and I install cablecard(s), will the picture quality look like the Series II picture quality, or like the quality you get when you go through a STB? This question probably applies only to the analog channels. The digital channels will either look 100%, or they will be pixelated.

So, will a cablecard enable better picture quality, or will it just unscramble the digital channels?

[etsolow]

Does anyone have a feel for how easy it will be to inject downloaded MPEG4 files into the TiVo S3 viewing experience? I'm a current DirecTV subscriber, so I'm not up on all the TTG/HME-type stuff. Seems to me that if that process is seamless enough, it might obviate the need for a second S3 unit for additional tuners. Use BitTorrent/iTunes as a virtual 3rd/4th tuner for the rare conflicts.

[terryfoster]

I have two TIVO's now. The Sony Series one talks to a Motorola STB to receive its picture and the quality is reasonable. The TIVO II is getting its signal directly from the cable (no STB) and the picture quality sucks.

If TIVO Series III gets its signal from the cable and I install cablecard(s), will the picture quality look like the Series II picture quality, or like the quality you get when you go through a STB? This question probably applies only to the analog channels. The digital channels will either look 100%, or they will be pixelated.

So, will a cablecard enable better picture quality, or will it just unscramble the digital channels?

The S3 will record digital cable at a much better quality than any previous TiVo to date. The analog channels will be dependent on the signal quality of your cable line and the quality setting you choose (assuming this is still an option on the box).

Cablecard doesn't affect PQ at all, except for it's ability to decrypt possible digital simulcasts of analog channels.

[MichaelK]

I have two TIVO's now. The Sony Series one talks to a Motorola STB to receive its picture and the quality is reasonable. The TIVO II is getting its signal directly from the cable (no STB) and the picture quality sucks.

If TIVO Series III gets its signal from the cable and I install cablecard(s), will the picture quality look like the Series II picture quality, or like the quality you get when you go through a STB? This question probably applies only to the analog channels. The digital channels will either look 100%, or they will be pixelated.

So, will a cablecard enable better picture quality, or will it just unscramble the digital channels?



ANALOG channels (usually below channel 100) will still get encoded by the tivo. So you are looking at a similar quality as you see now.

DIGITAL channels will not be encoded they aalready are at the cable head end so the tivo will just record them as is. THese channels are usually 100 and higher on cable systems or the x-y channels if ATSC. Your might not be recording some digital channels on your series1 becasue the STB from moto is converting them from digital to analog to pass them to the tivo then the tivo reencodes from analog to digital. That step will be avoided with the series 3 so you should get somewhat better quality but still cant get anythign better then what you cable company gives you.

But just becasue somethign is digital doesn't mean all or nothing. As far as reception it's all or nothing. But it also matters how the provider chooses to encode the data. THere are vast differnces in the same material depending on how it is encoded. You wont get snow or anything but you will get less detail and more motion artificats with low quality encoding.

[booboy97]

The $799 price I can swallow, but I've got 4 TV's - 2 HD's and 2 SD's. I've got Comcast for my 2 HD signals and DirecTivo for my dual tuner setup for all the TV's. Paying for 2 services is a drag but I can't live without dual tuners and I wanted HD (couldn't do it because my signals are stacked - but there is new hardware now to support the Multi Sat signal stacked).

Anyways, I would have to be in the market for 3 S3s if I ditched Sat (I'll live with SD on the final unit).

3 units at $799/each is pretty steep. Not sure what I'll do.

How many would you all buy at that price?

[MichaelK]

Does anyone have a feel for how easy it will be to inject downloaded MPEG4 files into the TiVo S3 viewing experience? I'm a current DirecTV subscriber, so I'm not up on all the TTG/HME-type stuff. Seems to me that if that process is seamless enough, it might obviate the need for a second S3 unit for additional tuners. Use BitTorrent/iTunes as a virtual 3rd/4th tuner for the rare conflicts.

not positive (using directv now myself while waiting for the series3...) but i think there is a 3rd part freeware program that allows you to take basically any format video clip and vocert it on the fly to mpeg2 for a series 2 tivo.

Probably want to check out the HMO/HME forums here for details.

[MickeS]

agreed with all that but not sure you'll be able to upgrade the internal drives anymore.

THe pictures floating around have a big fat warrenty seal on the back of the unit...

I believe the warranty was always void when you opened up the TiVo and did your own HD installation, sticker or no sticker. :)

[seattlewendell]

Consider the $999 price for the new Samsung BDP-1000 blu-ray disc player... which one do you think will get the most use between that and the TiVo? I don't think $800 is an unreasonable first-generation (which it is - there's no other product like it on the market) price.
I realize that this is a Tivo board but to say that there are no other products on the market is just an extremely uniformed statement. Products are judged by what they do not how they do it. I have two different dual tuner HD DVR in my house right now. Direct TV is also releasing one I believe next month.

[Unix_Beard]

$799 and lifetime I'd do. $799 AND a monthly fee, nope. I'll keep my old Tivo and cable box and lease a DVR for the HD content. $399 is about the limit for me.

[etsolow]

not positive (using directv now myself while waiting for the series3...) but i think there is a 3rd part freeware program that allows you to take basically any format video clip and vocert it on the fly to mpeg2 for a series 2 tivo.

Probably want to check out the HMO/HME forums here for details.
You might be thinking of the TiVoServer program, which requires a hacked TiVo. I'm assuming those hacks won't be available for some time for the S3.

E

[MickeS]

not positive (using directv now myself while waiting for the series3...) but i think there is a 3rd part freeware program that allows you to take basically any format video clip and vocert it on the fly to mpeg2 for a series 2 tivo.

Probably want to check out the HMO/HME forums here for details.

Yeah, I use the Videora TiVo converter all the time to convert mpeg4 to mpeg2 for the TiVo. The conversion takes about 1/2 the playing time on my PC (a 43 minute show takes around 20 minutes to convert) so viewing mpeg4 on the S3 would be convenient, but not a dealmaker.

[MickeS]

I realize that this is a Tivo board but to say that there are no other products on the market is just an extremely uniformed statement. Products are judged by what they do not how they do it. I have two different dual tuner HD DVR in my house right now. Direct TV is also releasing one I believe next month.

I was talking about what they do, not how they do it. Unless your HD DVR can receive both OTA broadcasts and cable, and also is networked and has capability for user-upgradable storage, there is no other product out there that can do what the S3 does.

[Tim N.]

ANALOG channels (usually below channel 100) will still get encoded by the tivo. So you are looking at a similar quality as you see now.

Thanks for the reply. Is there any way to get a better signal from the cable? What is the Mot Box doing to make the picture noticeably better? Is there someway I can duplicate whatever the STB is doing? I hate the thought of buying an S3 and then feeling the quality sucks on non-HD channels.

[MichaelK]

The $799 price I can swallow, but I've got 4 TV's - 2 HD's and 2 SD's. I've got Comcast for my 2 HD signals and DirecTivo for my dual tuner setup for all the TV's. Paying for 2 services is a drag but I can't live without dual tuners and I wanted HD (couldn't do it because my signals are stacked - but there is new hardware now to support the Multi Sat signal stacked).

Anyways, I would have to be in the market for 3 S3s if I ditched Sat (I'll live with SD on the final unit).

3 units at $799/each is pretty steep. Not sure what I'll do.

How many would you all buy at that price?


why not get 2 series 3 and then 2 S2DT's for the SD sets? Assumign MRV works why do you need a third series3?



What will I do:


Myself I too have 2 HD and 2 sd sets. Currently I have 1 HD TIVO, run a SD directivo for the second HD set (didn't want to commit to 2 more years of directv crap for a second HD TiVO) and use a DVD-TiVo for an SD set. 4th SD set is just for dvd's and video games in the basement.

To start I plan to get one Series 3 for the main HD set and then get an S2dt with an HD box and get downrezzed HD for the second HD set (will still be an upgrade over current sd directivo) . Use the DVD-TiVO on one SD set as is. When the price comes down (or if there are good rebates or this $799 price is higher then reality) then I'll grab a second series3 and use the s2DT on the last SD set that is 'naked' right now.

I hope the price drops soon after the new year but time will tell...

[MichaelK]

I believe the warranty was always void when you opened up the TiVo and did your own HD installation, sticker or no sticker. :)


true but clearly they looked the other way.

THey log your hard drive size when you connect to their server. I assume sometime in the past 5 years someone put in a larger hard drive then had an issue and put the old drive back in and asked for a warrenty repair. I never heard of anyone getting busted.

Seems no more looking the other way....

Maybe- it's a requirement of cablecard certification?

[MichaelK]

You might be thinking of the TiVoServer program, which requires a hacked TiVo. I'm assuming those hacks won't be available for some time for the S3.

E


good point- not sure the s3 will ever be hackable?

Have the newest generation of S2's been hacked?

[MichaelK]

Yeah, I use the Videora TiVo converter all the time to convert mpeg4 to mpeg2 for the TiVo. The conversion takes about 1/2 the playing time on my PC (a 43 minute show takes around 20 minutes to convert) so viewing mpeg4 on the S3 would be convenient, but not a dealmaker.


does that work with unhacked units?

Personally I'm hoping for MPEG4 playing directly also . I have a camcorder that records quasi-HD in MPEG4. I woiuld prefer to play it as is...

[MichaelK]

Thanks for the reply. Is there any way to get a better signal from the cable? What is the Mot Box doing to make the picture noticeably better? Is there someway I can duplicate whatever the STB is doing? I hate the thought of buying an S3 and then feeling the quality sucks on non-HD channels.

IN theory you dont need the moto box- I think the series 1 has an analog cable tuner so there's no need for a cablebox except to get digital channels.

Some systems do however simulcast their analog channels digitally so the box might be getting those cleaner digital versions of those channels. In such cases the Series3 would get you something even better than what your series1 is doing now since there would be no coversions between teh STB and the tivo.

[Bierboy]

The $799 price I can swallow...3 units at $799/each is pretty steep. Not sure what I'll do.

How many would you all buy at that price?1

[ZeoTiVo]

true but clearly they looked the other way.

THey log your hard drive size when you connect to their server. I assume sometime in the past 5 years someone put in a larger hard drive then had an issue and put the old drive back in and asked for a warrenty repair. I never heard of anyone getting busted.

Seems no more looking the other way....

Maybe- it's a requirement of cablecard certification?

They did look the other way because it was the only way to get a larger drive or some added features.

now with the S3 you can add an eSATA external drive and also some of the features are there now in some form on the TiVo. I think they will have made it much harder to do anthing inside the TiVo - if for no other reason then they have a smoother update path since all boxes will be the same.

I think HD does change everything though, content providers are not so worried about SD but HD they want locked up.

[greg_burns]

ANALOG channels (usually below channel 100) will still get encoded by the tivo. So you are looking at a similar quality as you see now.

I've read that the S1's PQ is better than the S2 (better encoding chips?). I wonder if the S3 will be different than the S2 in this regard.

[seattlewendell]

You're right - the problem is that the cable company doesn't lease you a box for $10/month. They just spread the fees out in their package pricing.
Wrong. Before I had a Comcast DVR I paid $40 per month. Now I pay $55. $5 for HD and $10 for the DVR. When I was remodeling my house for 2 months I turned off those features ans my bill went back to $40. Are you telling me that when I pay $55 Comcast is taking a loss on their programming fee or normal profits to supplemen their DVR profits? Doesn't make sense.

[seattlewendell]

Second, the Comcast TiVo surely won't compete against the high end series 3. Even IF networking and HME are turned on, the thing will only record what, 14 hours? It's very likely that hard drive WON'T be upgradable, and even if it where, you're leasing the box. It's VERY likely that you will be able to upgrade the internal hard drive to a 750 Gig, AND add an external esata...
.......And you looked in to your crystal ball to see this or do you work for Comcast in the new products and/or initiatives department?

[MickeS]

Wrong. Before I had a Comcast DVR I paid $40 per month. Now I pay $55. $5 for HD and $10 for the DVR. When I was remodeling my house for 2 months I turned off those features ans my bill went back to $40. Are you telling me that when I pay $55 Comcast is taking a loss on their programming fee or normal profits to supplemen their DVR profits? Doesn't make sense.

Not sure about your situation, but I think you are a rare case. At least my cable company (Cox) is if not requiring, at least pushing heavily that you get the digital package in order to get HD. When I asked them specifically about this, they told me I had to have digital to get the HD DVR. I'm pretty sure that they do the opposite of what you say; subsidize the DVR costs with programming package prices.

Of course, I might be all wrong, but I find it extremely hard to believe that they can turn a profit or even break even on the cost for the HD DVRs with just the DVR fee.

[MickeS]

does that work with unhacked units?

Personally I'm hoping for MPEG4 playing directly also . I have a camcorder that records quasi-HD in MPEG4. I woiuld prefer to play it as is...

I forgot to mention - I have a Series 2, not the DirecTV version. :)

[Dan203]

How many would you all buy at that price?

I plan on getting at least 2, possibly 3 depending on the discount/rebate situation.

Dan

[greg_burns]

I plan on getting at least 2, possibly 3 depending on the discount/rebate situation.

How many HDTV's do you have??

Happy B-day, btw! Where's that S3 you promised us all today?

[ah30k]

Now I pay $55. $5 for HD and $10 for the DVR. Common problem that the CSRs don't have much incentive to fix. Call them and tell them that you want the $5 HD charge removed. They should. If not, tell them that you don't want any HD service. At this point, the Mot box that does DVR automatically includes HD.

[TiVo Troll]

Those of you who perceive the $799 price as "high" need to consider just how many peple there are out there who buy expensive high end AV gear. For now that is the target market. There are so many companies making crazy expensive audio and video equipment - and they seem to be very successful. For example look at this page:

http://www.ultimateavmag.com/buyersguides/discplayersult/

Yes that is a $6000 DVD player. Apparently people drop this kind of scratch every day without blinking.

Some of these folks are going to want a machine like the S3 and I think the market is big enough that Tivo will have some success with it. I can't afford the $6k DVD unit, but I can afford the S3 and will most likely buy one next year. That is AFTER I get a HDTV display and my dream DVD player, the Denon DVD-2930CI (http://www.hometheaterblog.com/hometheater/2006/08/denon_dvd2930ci.html) which BTW is about the same price as the S3.

I also think that the S3 to some degree is a proof of concept product and that Tivo will use what they have learned with S3 to make other devices that record HD - eventually at a lower price point. The chipsets that handle digital TV encoding and processing, both SD and HD, will drop in price as more and more people adopt HD.

I routinely chuckle when reading Stereophile (www.stereophile.com) and views expressed in neverending vowel movements about subjective vs. objective reviewing, the near perfection of six figure speaker systems and five figure turntables and tubes!

Thanks for the link to the standard-def (with upscaling) reference Denon DVD player. I wonder if practically speaking you're not right about bypassing the hi-def DVD format wars for awhile!

Since you're undoubtedly much more familiar with the concept of upscaling than I am can you point me toward an explanation which covers how upscaling images beyond the resolution of the original source creates a better looking picture. Is a hi-def display the weakest link in the chain when dealing with standard-def sources?

I hope that you're also on the right track with regards to referring to Series 3 as TiVo's proof of concept product which may open a path toward lower priced hi-def DVR's. Right now though I'd really like to see a relatively cheap standard-def DVR which could receive digital programming from OTA as well as cable and satellite, even if it meant getting rid of its internal tuner(s) completely and just controlling STB's from whatever source(s) are available.

[TiVo Troll]

Not sure about your situation, but I think you are a rare case. At least my cable company (Cox) is if not requiring, at least pushing heavily that you get the digital package in order to get HD. When I asked them specifically about this, they told me I had to have digital to get the HD DVR. I'm pretty sure that they do the opposite of what you say; subsidize the DVR costs with programming package prices.

Of course, I might be all wrong, but I find it extremely hard to believe that they can turn a profit or even break even on the cost for the HD DVRs with just the DVR fee.

I don't know the breakdown of Comcast's revenue stream, but I can confirm that Comcast in my area provides a dual tuner hi-def DVR to anyone who wants DVR service and has any level of digital service. Digital tiers start at around $35. (Comcast's website is coy and doesn't reveal the full skinny on available services!)

Essentially DVR service costs $10. (monthly) with no ongoing commitment and no maintenance. If the DVR is the only STB, that's it; otherwise a $5 additional digital outlet charge is added. The DVR works well and is enjoyable to use. Two programs can be recorded at the same time, but only one program can be watched at a time (i.e. you can't send different programs to two TV's.)

[greg_burns]

I don't know the breakdown of Comcast's revenue stream, but I can confirm that Comcast in my area provides a dual tuner hi-def DVR to anyone who wants DVR service and has any level of digital service. Digital tiers start at around $35. (Comcast's website is coy and doesn't reveal the full skinny on available services!)

Saw this (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8304040&&#post8304040) thread today over at AVS. It says Comcast doesn't even charge for CableCards. :up:

CableCARD Report Card
CableCARDs have been trickling into the marketplace, and six of the top MSOs have been asked by the FCC to file quarterly reports detailing their deployment and support. Here is a current scorecard (as of October, 2005 filings) on how many are being deployed and the costs involved.

Time Warner Cable:
Current CableCARD customers: 9,240
Monthly lease rate for CableCARD: $1.75
Average installation cost: $18.95

Cablevision:
Current CableCARD customers: 3,799
Monthly lease rate for CableCARD: $1.25
Average installation cost: $34.95

Adelphia:
Current CableCARD customers: 5,874
Monthly price charged for CableCARD: $1.75
Average installation cost: $40 (price is typically waived.)

Charter Communications:
Current CableCARD customers: 3,900
Monthly lease rate for CableCARD: $1.50
Average installation cost: $32

Comcast Cable Communications:
Current CableCARD customers: 27,875
Monthly lease rate for CableCARD: $0
Average installation cost: $23.12

Cox Communications:
Current CableCARD customers: 6,895
Monthly price charged for CableCARD: $1.99
Average installation cost: $22.91

Source: NCTA

WOW, they all do seem to be below $2.00

[MichaelK]

I've read that the S1's PQ is better than the S2 (better encoding chips?). I wonder if the S3 will be different than the S2 in this regard.

could be possible that s1 and series 2 had differnt quality but i dont think to 95% of people it would be noticable. I never noticed it.

In thoery the chip inthe series 3 is 5 years newer than the one in the series1 so it should be better, but I think generally it was alright to begin with - serise 1 or series 2.

[MickeS]

could be possible that s1 and series 2 had differnt quality but i dont think to 95% of people it would be noticable. I never noticed it.

In thoery the chip inthe series 3 is 5 years newer than the one in the series1 so it should be better, but I think generally it was alright to begin with - serise 1 or series 2.

IMO the PQ difference is quite noticable between the S1 and S2. I would be surprised if the chip in the S3 was closer to S2 than S1 in picture quality... I'd hope that since these will be hooked to Hi-Def displays, they'd want as good of a SD picture as possible. Especially at that price. :)

[TiVo Troll]

Saw this (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=8304040&&#post8304040) thread today over at AVS. It says Comcast doesn't even charge for CableCards. :up:

That's true; Comcast (http://www.comcast.com/Customers/FAQ/FaqDetails.ashx?Id=2651) charges for installation and additional outlets. A DVR requiring 2 CableCARDS is still one outlet; except for two Dishnetwork DVR's (http://www.dishnetwork.com/content/products/receivers/dvr/index.shtml) (and one Dish STB (http://dishnetwork.com/downloads/pdf/product_brochures/dish_322.pdf) as well), no DVR or STB (that I know of) sends two programs at the same time to two TV sets.

[Toeside]

IMO the PQ difference is quite noticable between the S1 and S2. I would be surprised if the chip in the S3 was closer to S2 than S1 in picture quality... I'd hope that since these will be hooked to Hi-Def displays, they'd want as good of a SD picture as possible. Especially at that price. :)


The only time the encoder chip will be used is when watching analog cable (unless some of the TiVo-to-go and other features use it). I wonder how many people that will buy/own a Series 3 will use an analog cable feed.

[vman41]

The only time the encoder chip will be used is when watching analog cable (unless some of the TiVo-to-go and other features use it). I wonder how many people that will buy/own a Series 3 will use an analog cable feed.

I haven't ruled out sticking with analog cable and doing digital OTA for the local stations (ABC,NBC,CBS,Fox,PBS). It's so hard to sort out pricing for the digital tiers.

P.S. My cable company doesn't carry the HD Fox or ABC channels in the stations owner (Sinclair Broadcast Group) wants money to do so.

[greg_burns]

The only time the encoder chip will be used is when watching analog cable (unless some of the TiVo-to-go and other features use it). I wonder how many people that will buy/own a Series 3 will use an analog cable feed.

But what if you only have 1 CC and it is busy recording a digital channel, then the analog tuner may be used to record a channel < 100. Seems very likely to me (if it works that way). :confused:

[MichaelK]

They did look the other way because it was the only way to get a larger drive or some added features.

now with the S3 you can add an eSATA external drive and also some of the features are there now in some form on the TiVo. I think they will have made it much harder to do anthing inside the TiVo - if for no other reason then they have a smoother update path since all boxes will be the same.

I think HD does change everything though, content providers are not so worried about SD but HD they want locked up.

I think mostly it's about the content providers being worried about digital signal theft.

Giving people an easy way to add storage probably made it easier to do.

[MichaelK]

The only time the encoder chip will be used is when watching analog cable (unless some of the TiVo-to-go and other features use it). I wonder how many people that will buy/own a Series 3 will use an analog cable feed.


since all the channels below 100 are usually analog- even on digital cable- there will be plenty of analog watching going on. There's plenty of stuff in the 'basic cable' group that people will be watching.

[MichaelK]

IMO the PQ difference is quite noticable between the S1 and S2. I would be surprised if the chip in the S3 was closer to S2 than S1 in picture quality... I'd hope that since these will be hooked to Hi-Def displays, they'd want as good of a SD picture as possible. Especially at that price. :)

i believe the original series 1's had a seperate encoder chip. I think the newer versions of series 2 have an integrated "DVR on a chip" from broadcomm. The series3 also has an all in one DVR on a chip so it MIGHT be closer to the seris 2 than the series 1?

But like I said I never noticed myself (but when i went from series1 to series 2 I got a DVD model and record everythign in "extreme" mode- so maybe that's why?)

[musicforme]

I'm quite interested in the S3 at $799. Depending on what bonus I get at the end of the year and how much of a tax refund will mostly decide whether I buy a S3 in the first quarter of 2007.

I have plans to put an antenna in my attic and feed it into my Media Center PC and HDTV, so having the ability to record OTA hdtv isn't as much of a bonus for me.

Having the S3 will be my final straw to switch to Verizon's Fios as I'm currently on Time Warner's extended basic cable.

[burnsy]

... no DVR or STB (that I know of) sends two programs at the same time to two TV sets.

Qwest Choice TV uses a residential gateway that offers...

"...independent video streams to all three TVs in the home simultaneously."

using VDSL. The STB is from NextLevel (now owned by Motorola). It is only available in VERY limited areas.

[Dan203]

How many HDTV's do you have??

I technically have two, as I have a small 17" LCD up stairs that can do HDTV. However I only plan to connect the HD portion to the 50" DLP in the living room. The reason I want so many is because I want to be able to record everything I can in HD, and there are a few nights, namely Thursday, where quite a few good shows are all on at once. I figure two will be enough to get us by, with a S2 for backup, but I might get a third if I feel compelled. :)

Happy B-day, btw! Where's that S3 you promised us all today?

Thanks! Apparently I was a few weeks off on my estimate. Although considering I made that guess like 4 months ago I think I came pretty close. :)

Dan

[kb7oeb]

The qwest box is not a dvr, or a least I have not seen the dvr version. But its otherwise decent

Dishnetwork offers a two tv receiver and several two tv DVRs

[moyekj]

since all the channels below 100 are usually analog- even on digital cable- there will be plenty of analog watching going on. There's plenty of stuff in the 'basic cable' group that people will be watching. Several cable companies (Comcast and Cox I know for sure) are now digital simulcasting all the analog channel lineup which means when using a digital set top box rented from the cable company or using a CableCard when you tune to a traditionally analog channel (<100) you actually get the digital version now instead. If you use TV NTSC tuner or a non-digital box then you still tune to the analog version of those channels.

[mumpower]

With all due respect to the people who are saying they don't mind the price point, it reminds me of the PS3. There is not a single "normal" consumer who looked at the $599 price point for the real system and said, "What a great value!" I am certain that there is truth in the comments that TiVo has a very expensive component being produced here but if the $799 price point is correct, it's outrageous. As a diehard customer, I had been fully expected to buy two of these as soon as they are released. If the price point is $799, I won't even buy one right now. I'll wait for the cost to come down to more feasible levels.

Having said that, I suspect the $799 is either an MSRP or just a number stuck in the system for now. The Dual Tuner is $249 (excluding rebates). I find it very hard to believe the new device is over triple that since TiVo has to cut deals to sell the $249 unit.

[Dan203]

TiVo specifically said they would not subsidize the S3 like they do the S2 units, so that could explain the trippled MSRP. However the original poster did say that this was an MSRP and not the actual sale price of the unit. So it's possible that there is a large wholesale margin and we'll see units actually selling for $100+ less online. We'll just have to wait and see.

As for your comment about not even buying one, after planning on buying two.... How much did you expect them to cost? We have been hearing $500-$800 since CES, so you should have known they wern't going to be cheap.

Dan

[mattack]

I have two TIVO's now. The Sony Series one talks to a Motorola STB to receive its picture and the quality is reasonable. The TIVO II is getting its signal directly from the cable (no STB) and the picture quality sucks.

Have you tried different coax cables and/or simply swapped the coax cables between the two units to see if that affected things?

I noticed I was getting much more interference (wavy lines on top of the picture) on USA (Monk, Psych, Dead Zone) on one of my series 1 Tivos than the other. I played around with my cables a bit, and also noticed that one Tivo gets a much better picture (still a bit of interference, but nowhere near as bad and the overall picture is better).

Also try screw-on rather than push on coax connectors. The push on ones seem to be more prone to interference. I intend on playing with my connections some more since I don't get a great signal on CBS (used to), but it's probably at least partially due to my multiple splits of the cable and my coax cables.

[mattack]

I haven't ruled out sticking with analog cable and doing digital OTA for the local stations (ABC,NBC,CBS,Fox,PBS).

Me too. Not for $800 (at least not without the option of paying for lifetime service, which we no longer have except ebay purchases of cards), but for somewhat lower I would consider it.

I'd also try QAM rather than digital OTA.

[mattack]

I'd consider spending the $800 if it got me a free year of service with it. :) But, if that price is true, I'll need to think about it quite a bit. I want, I need one, with the new HD tv, but - it's a little much for my wallet.

However, that's what credit cards are for.

Credit card companies must love you.

-Already mourning for my 5% back (for gas, grocery store, drug store) credit card that I pay off every month that's going to only 2% as of mid-October.

[mfogarty5]

Wow, that is cool. My wife would not allow such a subwoofer. She is a total Tivo addict, and last night when I told her how much the S3 was going to cost I didn't get a complaint. Of course I haven't really lined up all the costs for her yet:

$3000 for flat panel LCD dispaly
$850 for Denon DVD player
$800 for S3 + monthly (we are on lifetime right now)
$300 for HDMI cable to get from the equipment rack to the display.
$250 for HDMI switcher

Anyone want to add something else?

Welshdog,

Instead of a Denon DVD player and a HDMI switcher, you should consider getting a cheaper dvd player and a video processor like DVDO instead. In addition to making your DVDs look good and acting as an HDMI switcher, it will de-interlace and upscale all that HD goodness flowing from your new Series3.

Also, get your HDMI cables from monoprice.com

[Lenonn]

Credit card companies must love you.

-Already mourning for my 5% back (for gas, grocery store, drug store) credit card that I pay off every month that's going to only 2% as of mid-October.

What I was saying was that it's not as difficult to pay off $100 or $200 a month for four to eight months as paying in one fell swoop the full $800. Yeah, I know it's more expensive in the end, but looking at those numbers, which seems easier and less likely to cause you to have a heart attack?

[johnner1999]

I have been waiting for the S3 (like everyone else LOL)

As of this post we have three active S2 Tivo's in our home, one is a dual tuner model. WE LOVE OUR TIVO's - its our only true vise as we don't drink or smoke (not anything wrong with that). So we want a S3 box BUT at $800 its way too much to spend plus the monthly fee... But wait there is more CableVision where I live is moving more SD channels to digital only as of now we don't want to rent a STB and use our tivo (quility stinks for me - plus crappy STB seems to reboot a bunch as we have tried it)... I doubt CableVision will use switched video channels but I don't want to take that chance.

My question is with Comcast and Cox using Tivo Software I know its only two CC so far but I find it hard to believe that the others won't at least think more due to peer presure - so where does that leave Tivo?

As much as we love Tivo - I'll be calling DirecTV for an install this week-end and will be calling to drop tivo :-(


sidenote we have tried the SA8300HD boxes from CableVision - Buggy with out a doubt, in fact I think one my old VCR's had a better program engine LOL. But the PQ and price was OK compaired to $800 if that is in fact the price (which I think it will)


ok sorry for my rant

[Welshdog]

I routinely chuckle when reading Stereophile (www.stereophile.com) and views expressed in neverending vowel movements about subjective vs. objective reviewing, the near perfection of six figure speaker systems and five figure turntables and tubes!
Vowel movement. Nice!

Thanks for the link to the standard-def (with upscaling) reference Denon DVD player. I wonder if practically speaking you're not right about bypassing the hi-def DVD format wars for awhile!

can you point me toward an explanation which covers how upscaling images beyond the resolution of the original source creates a better looking picture. Is a hi-def display the weakest link in the chain when dealing with standard-def sources? The display is not the weak link unless it is bad at scaling. This article gives you a basic description of scaling. DVD Video Upscaling (http://hometheater.about.com/od/hometheatervideobasics/qt/dvdvidupscale.htm) I couldn't find an article that explains scaling in techincal specifics (nor would I understand it), but here is how I think it works. Scaling is very much a "picking yourself up by your own bootstraps" kind of process. It uses truly innovative mathematics and processing to make a pseudo hi res image from a low res one. It looks at the pixels and makes an educated guess as to what it should look like in hi res. In real time. Combined with the modern image processing chips like those from Silcon Optix (http://www.siliconoptix.com/chipProducts.cfm) scaling/processing can produce a quite nice image. This is what the Denon DVD player does. Scaling done poorly can produce an image I find unwatchable. The scalers built into many HDTV sets are not very good to my eye. Scaling from 480i (DVD) up to 720p looks very good. Scaling from 480i up to 1080i is hit and miss. Some machines to a good job, others fail. It takes a lot of electronic black magic to get a nice looking 1080 image from a lowly 480i DVD. Upscaling of live broadcast signals pretty much always looks bad in HiDef IMO.

[bob61]

Why are you WOW! about it costing $800 ?

The High-Def DIRECTiVo was about $999 when it first came out.

$799 sounds like a bargain to me considering what it will do.Not when I look at Comcast costing $9.99 a month for it's HD PVR Tuner. Figuring I save $3 compared to going with Tivo on their second unit rate of $6.95, that's a LONG time (266 months) to recoup the out of pocket to purchase the S3.

[mumpower]

As for your comment about not even buying one, after planning on buying two.... How much did you expect them to cost? We have been hearing $500-$800 since CES, so you should have known they wern't going to be cheap.

Dan

$400...maybe $500. When rumors come out for estimated pricing, they are generally high, sometimes laughably so. At this point, I consider this price only a rumor but it's absurd if they try to sell it at this rate. I put a 400GB and 500GB hard drive into the same system this summer and still only spent half of the cost they are discussing for a 1039 hour unit. A 250 GB unit simply should not cost $800. I can see that as a mod on the board, you are driven to defend this practice but speaking as a TiVo lifer going back to the 14 hour units, this MSRP, if true, will drive away my business.

[smark]

Ugh. I don't even think that if I sold both my series two boxes I'd even get a 1/4th of the cost of this sucker.

[mumpower]

I have a 738 hour unit I had been planning to list on eBay the instant pre-orders were available for the Series 3. As it stands, I'll either stick with what I've got or, more likely, use the money from the TiVo sale on a PS3. At least I get Blu-Ray with that.

[TiVo Troll]

DVD Video Upscaling (http://hometheater.about.com/od/hometheatervideobasics/qt/dvdvidupscale.htm)

I couldn't find an article that explains scaling in techincal specifics (nor would I understand it), but here is how I think it works. Scaling is very much a "picking yourself up by your own bootstraps" kind of process. It uses truly innovative mathematics and processing to make a pseudo hi res image from a low res one. It looks at the pixels and makes an educated guess as to what it should look like in hi res. In real time. Combined with the modern image processing chips like those from Silcon Optix (http://www.siliconoptix.com/chipProducts.cfm) scaling/processing can produce a quite nice image. This is what the Denon DVD player does. Scaling done poorly can produce an image I find unwatchable. The scalers built into many HDTV sets are not very good to my eye. Scaling from 480i (DVD) up to 720p looks very good. Scaling from 480i up to 1080i is hit and miss.

Thanks.

[gthassell]

I plan to sell my upgraded Humax T-800 (non-DVD) @ 176 hrs (with Lifetime) - and use my Amex with the Low Price Guarantee to buy me 60 days of price protection. Throw on top of that a Best Buy rewardzone card - yes, I hate BBY, but I am a "devil" customer - so I'll give them a chance to earn back a little of the money that they lost on the Sony Bravia I bought from them WELL below retail, and I should come out OK. I certainly won't need to be able to record 4 programs at once.....

Or... I may just use Amex points to fund the purchase...

Anyway, just counting the days til the Series 3!

[msu2k]

Not when I look at Comcast costing $9.99 a month for it's HD PVR Tuner. Figuring I save $3 compared to going with Tivo on their second unit rate of $6.95, that's a LONG time (266 months) to recoup the out of pocket to purchase the S3.
I just couldn't live with the small amount of storage space on the Comcast with no possiblity of upgrading it. It's just barely an apples to oranges comparison when it comes to the S3.

"According to Comcast representatives, it can hold 10 to 15 hours of HD programming."


Are you kidding me? No way could I go back to that few hours on my PVR. Quite honestly, I'm surprised that any Tivo diehard could. Even if I had multiple Comcast Tivos sharing shows back and forth throughout my house, I'd need like 5 of those at that size.

Having said that, if they'd just let you upgrade the storage space on the Comcast box, I'd get one in a heartbeat.

[JDAWG11]

Rumor verified, sorry if this was already mentioned...I don't have time to read all the posts. I work at BB as well and I just checked our system. $799 is correct and our cost is a little over $500. The in-stock date actually showed 8/25 but there is no sign of stock anytime soon. Ohh yeah...we're hiring if you want to get the discount!

[jfh3]

Rumor verified, sorry if this was already mentioned...I don't have time to read all the posts. I work at BB as well and I just checked our system. $799 is correct and our cost is a little over $500. The in-stock date actually showed 8/25 but there is no sign of stock anytime soon. Ohh yeah...we're hiring if you want to get the discount!

What's the employee discount? :)

[JDAWG11]

5% over cost

[dylanursula]

if it is $500 cost i really dont think it will be any cheaper then $800 on day 1 thru 90 unless there are rebates. Just my 2 cents.

[Bierboy]

5% over costHmmm.....$525 (or thereabouts)....I'm thinking I need a second job....temporarily....

[DCIFRTHS]

... 250GB isn't that big when recording hidef - around 30 hours. And the cost difference between a 120 or 160 drive and a 250 drive at wholesale wouldn't be enough to drop the retail price by 1/2.


IMO, 250GB should be the smallest drive available for recording HD.

[DCIFRTHS]

5% over cost

Nice :)

What would you say typical markup on computer and AV stuff at BB is?

[JDAWG11]

computer equipment is not a high mark up at all, we usually lose money on any sale items...but accessories and services is where we make it back up. TVs and Monster Cable is where the real money is.

[DCIFRTHS]

computer equipment is not a high mark up at all, we usually lose money on any sale items...but accessories and services is where we make it back up. TVs and Monster Cable is where the real money is.

Are TVs in the 30% range?

[mumpower]

computer equipment is not a high mark up at all, we usually lose money on any sale items...

Given this acknowledgement, wouldn't that indicate the Series 3 will be much closer to the purchase price than the MSRP?

[JDAWG11]

roughly

[JDAWG11]

I would say it will be $799 with some sort of rebate, our price usually dosen't stray from what the system tells us. I'm worried their going to bump up the tivo service fee for HD...anyone hear any word of this?

[btwyx]

Why did they go with such a large hard drive out of the gate.It isn't big, it'll need upgrading.

[jfh3]

I'm worried their going to bump up the tivo service fee for HD...anyone hear any word of this?

That wouldn't make any sense ... not like there will be an "HD unique" service features. Besides, Tivo already has enough pricing models and resulting confusion - they don't need to add to it by having different price points just because the service happens to run on a Series 3.

[JDAWG11]

I agree and hope your right. I just can't wait to see what functionality the software brings.

[Welshdog]

It isn't big, it'll need upgrading.No it's not big at all. We use XServe Raids on our Final Cut systems at work. THAT's big. Even so we fill them up all the time.

I want one at home - all those blue LEDs are cool.

[generalpatton71]

Well I hope they have a service agreement deal or something, because 800$ is just to mutch right now. I have 2 hr10-250s and will probably now just get the HR20 and wait for a special on the S3 or something.

[aztivo]

I want one at home - all those blue LEDs are cool.
Blue LEDs??? I think you are thinking of the HR20??

[Welshdog]

Blue LEDs??? I think you are thinking of the HR20?? Sorry I was unclear - I meant the Xserve raid. I had a facetiousness failure.

[c3]

If you think $799 for the hardware is too much, lifetime cards were sold for over $800 a piece tonight. "Nancy" just increased the price from $760 (I think) to $830.

[jfh3]

If you think $799 for the hardware is too much, lifetime cards were sold for over $800 a piece tonight. "Nancy" just increased the price from $760 (I think) to $830.

Damn. Still can't believe I left 4 cards on the shelf a few months back. (The ironic thing is that the seller that just got $1650 for two cards bought 4 cards from the same store I did about 28 hours later).

Two cards for $1650. Wow!

Interesting how Tivo pegged the value of a Series 3 with lifetime for $1500 for purposes of disclosure during the Idol Speculation contest.

Lifetime had been going for $700 on eBay. $800 for the box. Makes you wonder how many people would actually pay $1500 if it were available at retail.

[kb7oeb]

People are nuts to pay that much for lifetime.

[btwyx]

People are nuts to pay that much for lifetime.Monthly service is currently $12.95, if you pay $800 for lifetime, you're getting almost 20% return on your investment. I wish I could get 20% returns, also that return can only go up as TiVo service gets more expensive.

[c3]

Monthly service is currently $12.95, if you pay $800 for lifetime, you're getting almost 20% return on your investment.

huh? 20% return means keeping the unit for over 6 years. 20% over 6 years is nothing. You can do better in a liquid savings account.

[generalpatton71]

huh? 20% return means keeping the unit for over 6 years. 20% over 6 years is nothing. You can do better in a liquid savings account.

Not to mention the multi service discount to 6.95.

[btwyx]

huh? 20% return means keeping the unit for over 6 years. 20% over 6 years is nothing. You can do better in a liquid savings account.I think you may be missing something. $12.95/month is $155.40/year. 155.40/800 is 20% per year, every year, for evermore (assuming you use TiVo for evermore).

Tell me one liquid savings account which pays 20% pa.

[c3]

What if the hardware dies within 6 years? I would gamble for 2-3 years, but not 6.

[btwyx]

What if the hardware dies within 6 years? I would gamble for 2-3 years, but not 6.The you can still make 10% from the MSD. Is lifetime not transferrable anymore? I've never had to subscribe to TiVo directly, so I'm not familiar with how it goes.

[c3]

The you can still make 10% from the MSD. Is lifetime not transferrable anymore?

Lifetime cannot be transferred to another unit unless it's repaired/replaced by authorized agent. MSD does not apply unless the full-rate unit calls home every 6 months.

[mikesay98]

All these people with lifetime subscription cards on eBay may be saving them to BUY S3 and then add the lifetime on, and sell that as a package on eBay. Seeing as the S3 might already be $799, how much do you think they'd go for then? How much would YOU be willing to pay? Some people have to have some sort of price limit, but others here seem to have no limit :eek:

[nhaigh]

While I do intend to get the S3 right away I also think it will be upgraded within a few years. Don't people think there will be a CC2.0 version or something that will come next year. If there is then a lot of people may want to upgrade.

I'm simply not trying to justify the cost to myself. I recognise the fact I want an HD TiVo and that it is expensive but it is a luxury I'm happy to pay for.

[TiVo Troll]

Credit card companies must love you.

-Already mourning for my 5% back (for gas, grocery store, drug store) credit card that I pay off every month that's going to only 2% as of mid-October.

Yeah, but now it includes utilities, "including cable"!

[TiVo Troll]

Damn. Still can't believe I left 4 cards on the shelf a few months back. (The ironic thing is that the seller that just got $1650 for two cards bought 4 cards from the same store I did about 28 hours later).

Two cards for $1650. Wow!

Interesting how Tivo pegged the value of a Series 3 with lifetime for $1500 for purposes of disclosure during the Idol Speculation contest.

Lifetime had been going for $700 on eBay. $800 for the box. Makes you wonder how many people would actually pay $1500 if it were available at retail.

There's something fishy, 'er, UNUSUAL, about that deal. It appeared to be pre-set up in advance. I was looking right at the listing when the "Buy It Now" came in. Megazone (zoneryrie) held the high bid on one of those cards unitil the seller cancelled the listing a little more than 3 hours earlier. I don't remember seeing any other eBay listing on which a card sold for more than $800.

The other card megazone had bid on has been bid up to $520 now by another bidder, with a day and a half to go.

[TiVo Troll]

What if the hardware dies within 6 years? I would gamble for 2-3 years, but not 6.

Why wouldn't you just replace the HD?

[ZeoTiVo]

I think you may be missing something. $12.95/month is $155.40/year. 155.40/800 is 20% per year, every year, for evermore (assuming you use TiVo for evermore).

Tell me one liquid savings account which pays 20% pa.

But that return is a service not actual money. I may well not want the service on that box after x number of years. That has to be factored in as well.

would you pay 800$ for a Series 2 DT lifetime right now? Most likely not because HD and cable card will supplant that within a very short time. Heck I would not have paid 299 for lifetime on my DT (I am looking at 6.95 in my case) and indeed did not for 540 box.

I still look at it from the duration side 800/12.95 = 5 years and then decide if I will use my box for more than 5 years. With an MSD pushing that out to 9.5 years then it is an easy call for me.

[PhillyGuy]

Monthly service is currently $12.95, if you pay $800 for lifetime, you're getting almost 20% return on your investment. I wish I could get 20% returns, also that return can only go up as TiVo service gets more expensive.


You are not getting a "return" from your investment because you'll never get your principle back. The accurate way to think about it is that you'll break even in 5 to 10 years at 12.95 and 6.95 respectively. After that, you'll start to reap the benefit of having the lifetime. That's not even counting the interest that you could be accuring during this period.

[btwyx]

Lifetime cannot be transferred to another unit unless it's repaired/replaced by authorized agent.So lifetime can be transferred if your unit dies. What's the problem?