Tivo Series3: Availability 9/17/2006 @ $799 MSRP? [Text View] - Page 2

btwyx

08-29-2006, 10:06 AM

You are not getting a "return" from your investment because you'll never get your principle back.A. It doesn't matter if you use the service forever, if you don't want to use the service forever, you can calculate the rate with a rate of return and return of principle over a timescale you like. It'll still be a good rate.

And b, you can get your principle back. That's why lifetimed units sell for so much, that's your return of principle.

The point was, someone said it was crazy to pay that much, it isn't. It makes sound financial sense.

lessd

08-29-2006, 10:06 AM

You are not getting a "return" from your investment because you'll never get your principle back. The accurate way to think about it is that you'll break even in 5 to 10 years at 12.95 and 6.95 respectively. After that, you'll start to reap the benefit of having the lifetime. That's not even counting the interest that you could be accuring during this period.

With Series 2 you do get your principle back, two years back I got a series 2 for about $70 + $299 for lifetime, (had to wait 12 weeks for my $150 rebate) sold it on E-Bay in May for $465 and bought a Series 2 DT for $100 + $299 lifetime (just got my rebate back for the DT) (special lifetime deal for the DT that has ended now), what a great deal. But at the current price on lifetime gift cards its not as much a no brainier.

btwyx

08-29-2006, 10:08 AM

would you pay 800$ for a Series 2 DT lifetime right now?I woulddn't pay anything for an S2, I have zero interest in an analog TiVo. An S3 on the other hand is interesting.

cwoody222

08-29-2006, 10:28 AM

Within the warranty period.

My Series2, which was bought way back when the S2 first came out (I transferred my lifetime from a S1 during a limited time they offered that) just died a few weeks ago. It was way outside the warranty. They transfered my lifetime to a new S2 unit (that TiVo provided me for about $50).

So - while not official - they do do it. I didn't even have to try hard to get that deal... they offered it to me.

ah30k

08-29-2006, 10:35 AM

Monthly service is currently $12.95, if you pay $800 for lifetime, you're getting almost 20% return on your investment. I wish I could get 20% returns, also that return can only go up as TiVo service gets more expensive.How in the world do you define '20% return on your investment'? Most people define return on investment as laying out $x and getting your original $x back plus some premium in the future. I just don't see any "return" here at all.

A 20% return on your investment means that you can sell the lifetime in two years for something like $800 + $160 + $192 = $1152.

If you really think you can sell your lifetime for $1152 in two years, I'll buy your argument of %20 return.

btwyx

08-29-2006, 10:47 AM

How in the world do you define '20% return on your investment'? Its covered in posts above. Start with $800, and intend to use TiVo service (for a long time).

Pay $800 for life time, don't pay $12.95 a month to TiVo. When you want your principal back, sell TiVo with lifetime for $800 premium.

Compare to this situation:

Put $800 in bank account paying 20% pa. Receive $12.95/month in interest, pay $12.95 to TiVo for TiVo service. When you want your principal back, withdraw money.

How is this not like getting a 20% return on your money? I have several investments which pay me a certain amount each month at a % equivalent to some anual rate. None of them pay anywhere near 20%.

ZeoTiVo

08-29-2006, 10:52 AM

I woulddn't pay anything for an S2, I have zero interest in an analog TiVo. An S3 on the other hand is interesting.

yes and that can mess with your calculation as the value of a unit gets obsoleted and resell becomes less of an option. The value is all in the service and not in the hardware itself after a certain point.

ah30k

08-29-2006, 11:08 AM

Its covered in posts above. Start with $800, and intend to use TiVo service (for a long time).

Pay $800 for life time, don't pay $12.95 a month to TiVo. When you want your principal back, sell TiVo with lifetime for $800 premium.

Compare to this situation:

Put $800 in bank account paying 20% pa. Receive $12.95/month in interest, pay $12.95 to TiVo for TiVo service. When you want your principal back, withdraw money.

How is this not like getting a 20% return on your money? I have several investments which pay me a certain amount each month at a % equivalent to some anual rate. None of them pay anywhere near 20%.
Sounds like an arbitrage opportunity to me! Unless of course you can't sell your lifetime-S3 for $1600 ($800 unit + $800 lifetime) in the future. If you can only sell it for $1200 (perhaps still a stretch) you would be getting -5% return on your investment. Consider the risks associated with each investment, that would explain the premium. I can invest in a federally backed financial instrument and get 3% or so. I can invest in a TiVo Lifetime financial instrument and may get +20% if I can sell the unit for $1600 in one year or I may lose 5% if I can only sell it for $1200. I really think the risks of selling a TiVo are pretty high.

TexasAg

08-29-2006, 11:18 AM

Its covered in posts above. Start with $800, and intend to use TiVo service (for a long time).

Pay $800 for life time, don't pay $12.95 a month to TiVo. When you want your principal back, sell TiVo with lifetime for $800 premium.

Compare to this situation:

Put $800 in bank account paying 20% pa. Receive $12.95/month in interest, pay $12.95 to TiVo for TiVo service. When you want your principal back, withdraw money.

How is this not like getting a 20% return on your money? I have several investments which pay me a certain amount each month at a % equivalent to some anual rate. None of them pay anywhere near 20%.

You're nuts if you think anyone will pay you $800 in 2-3 years just for lifetime service, plus whatever price you ask for the box. Most consumers won't even remember that Tivo offered lifetime, and those that do won't pay $800 up front to save $13/month. This will be particularly true since:
(1) the lifetime is tied to the box, and the box is already 2-3 old.
(2) in 2-3 years, Tivo hopefully will be introducing the new Series 4 with SDV/PPV/VOD/CC 2.0 capabilities.

btwyx

08-29-2006, 11:22 AM

Sounds like an arbitrage opportunity to me! Unless of course you can't sell your lifetime-S3 for $1600 ($800 unit + $800 lifetime) in the future. If you can only sell it for $1200 (perhaps still a stretch) you would be getting -50% return on your investment. No you wouldn't. You seem to have great difficulty in calculating monthly income in rate off return.

Also in your above example, you do not include enough information to calculate the rate of return on the lifetime. Your above example comprises 2 elements, the hardware, and the lifetime. The hardware is expected to devalue, so you need to say how much you could sell a non lifetime S3 for at that time. If you could sell a non lifetime for $400 at that time, you're getting $800 for the lifetime. That's a return on pricipal on the lifetime. You've also in the meantime been earning the 20% (you find so difficult to understand) on that $800.

ah30k

08-29-2006, 11:32 AM

No you wouldn't. You seem to have great difficulty in calculating monthly income in rate off return.

Also in your above example, you do not include enough information to calculate the rate of return on the lifetime. Your above example comprises 2 elements, the hardware, and the lifetime. The hardware is expected to devalue, so you need to say how much you could sell a non lifetime S3 for at that time. If you could sell a non lifetime for $400 at that time, you're getting $800 for the lifetime. That's a return on pricipal on the lifetime. You've also in the meantime been earning the 20% (you find so difficult to understand) on that $800.
OK, I had an error in my spreadsheet. You would lose -6% ...

Investment
($800)

Monthly Income (or lack of expense if you will)
$12.95

Yearly Income (or lack of expense if you will)
$155.40

Assume two years of service then sell the lifetime for $400
$400

This equates to a IRR of -6% for two years

ah30k

08-29-2006, 11:45 AM

BTYX,
I have a better idea. Please check my math according to your methods. If I gave you an opportunity to earn 15% for two years would you take it?

I'll sell you my grandfathered lifetime Tivo (almost equivalent to a lifetime gift card) for $1000. You can reap a 16% return for two years and then sell the unit for $1000. You can paypal me the $1000 and I'll ship you the grandfathered unit.

ah30k

Welshdog

08-29-2006, 12:16 PM

Also in your above example, you do not include enough information to calculate the rate of return on the lifetime. Your above example comprises 2 elements, the hardware, and the lifetime. The hardware is expected to devalue, so you need to say how much you could sell a non lifetime S3 for at that time. If you could sell a non lifetime for $400 at that time, you're getting $800 for the lifetime. That's a return on pricipal on the lifetime. You've also in the meantime been earning the 20% (you find so difficult to understand) on that $800.

BTWYX I thought you worked for Apple? Are you an accountant there?

It's all pops and clicks to me . . . when the box comes out I'll just buy it and watch it and not ever ever ever think about the money.

Havanese_boy

08-29-2006, 12:19 PM

Here is a great chance to "win" back all the customers who are using other cable DVRs..I just hope the price doesn't keep them ( and me ) away.

jfh3

08-29-2006, 12:22 PM

There's something fishy, 'er, UNUSUAL, about that deal. It appeared to be pre-set up in advance. I was looking right at the listing when the "Buy It Now" came in. Megazone (zoneryrie) held the high bid on one of those cards unitil the seller cancelled the listing a little more than 3 hours earlier. I don't remember seeing any other eBay listing on which a card sold for more than $800.

The other card megazone had bid on has been bid up to $520 now by another bidder, with a day and a half to go.

I agree - looks like the buyer contacted the seller, made an incredible offer and then the seller cancelled the other auctions to set up one with a buy it now price for two cards.

If I were a bidder on either of the original auctions, I'd compain to eBay. Sure looks like the seller abused the system.

We've come a long way since we saw the outrage when cards first went for sale at $499 on eBay.

$299 for lifetime - deal. $499 for lifetime for lifetime - maybe deal. But $825?
Can't see that, even if you only have one Tivo and would be avoiding $12.95/month.

Be interesting to see if $825 is an anomaly or a new floor.

Glich

08-29-2006, 12:45 PM

ouch... i was hoping for 399.99 o well. I still have my free lifetime trasfer (yes i have had my 13 hour for that long) I will prob wit 60 days to make sure there not blowing up then get one. (maby i will wait til after xmas and get an open item on at best buy)

08-29-2006, 12:49 PM

Why wouldn't you just replace the HD?

I would, but sometimes that's not the only thing broken. All of my TiVos have lifetime, but at $299 or less.

bidger

08-29-2006, 12:53 PM

I woulddn't pay anything for an S2, I have zero interest in an analog TiVo. An S3 on the other hand is interesting.
You don't watch any SD shows? I know I do and that's why I keep one because I don't want to waste any HdD space on the HD-TiVo with SD shows.

Plus, if you have a Lifetime unit, adding the HD-TiVo would only cost $6.95/mo. service-wise...provided we don't hear anything different when TiVo gets around to announcing the release.

Considering the info splashed all over these boards, I would think that time should be soon.

08-29-2006, 12:56 PM

There's something fishy, 'er, UNUSUAL, about that deal.

What's more strange is that there is a card with buy-it-now of $695 (still there). The buyer paid a lot more than that. However, that's not the first time I have seen eBay buyers "choosing" to pay a lot more for identical items.

joey398

08-29-2006, 01:03 PM

I'm a little confused.

I actually have a Series 1 Tivo (sitting in a closet collecting dust) that I got a Lifetime Subscription at the time.

Would I be able to un-mothball the unit and actually transfer the Lifetime Sub to the S3 when it comes out?

I definatly will be buying the S3 when it comes out, as I am subjected to the "nuances" of the Cablevision DVR at this point in time ( I use this due to I have a 52" Toshiba HDTV). I so hate the cablevision software, I am counting the days till the S3 release. My family just asked me this past week what I wanted for my birthday, and I told them nothing....except...y'all can chip in and buy me the new S3 when its available. :) Since I did not get any gifts, I think that will happen. YAY!

ah30k

08-29-2006, 01:18 PM

greg_burns

08-29-2006, 01:20 PM

Would I be able to un-mothball the unit and actually transfer the Lifetime Sub to the S3 when it comes out?

http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?t=290723
Grandfather transfer: The one-time "Grandfather transfer" (for people who purchased Product Lifetime on or before January 21, 2000 [as in, more than six years ago], and who have not already used their one-time transfer) is still allowed and will also be honored for future hardware releases from TiVo, such as the Series3. If you have any trouble when you call, please mention KDB code 09-07-04 to the agent.

joey398

08-29-2006, 01:27 PM

ah30k

08-29-2006, 01:29 PM

Close but no cigar!!

Thanks for playing!

Seriously though, I feel bad for ya.

bwhaler

08-29-2006, 01:45 PM

I'm OK with the $700 price.

But here's why I am not buying one:

Here is the real cost:

1. $700

2. $19.95 each and every month while I own the box

3. Advertisements in the interface

4. Advertisements when fast forwarding

THAT'S the real cost.

At $700, Tivo should be able to sell the box at a profit and that be the end of it. I would pay $700, and be happy. Hell, I would pay more if it included a lifetime subscription.

But the monthly fees are insulting. And the fact that my Tivo is going to push MORE advertisements at me is a deal killer.

I don't need to drop that kind of money to see more ads. I'll be happy with my crappy, terrible Motorola box. Sure, it sucks, but its 5 bucks, and I get less ads.

bidger

08-29-2006, 02:17 PM

I'll be happy with my crappy, terrible Motorola box. Sure, it sucks, but its 5 bucks, and I get less ads.
And you don't think there's any chance that could change?

dylanursula

08-29-2006, 02:18 PM

And you don't think there's any chance that could change?

It could; but to date has not changed to approx. $800 :)

btwyx

08-29-2006, 02:18 PM

You don't watch any SD shows?I watch plenty, but they're all delivered digitally.

btwyx

08-29-2006, 02:24 PM

BTWYX I thought you worked for Apple? Are you an accountant there?I do, but not as an accountant.

The money's just a simple bit of math, now others are arguing about the assumptions and the risk, but they seem to think they're arguing about the maths.

SnakeEyes

08-29-2006, 02:24 PM

I have exactly $800 right now, stashed in a drawer for this.

Do yourself a favor and TiVo the show "It Takes a Thief" ;)

etsolow

08-29-2006, 02:36 PM

2. $12.95 each and every month while I own the box
Where are people getting this $13/mo service price?

According to TiVo's website (http://www.tivo.com/2.0.plans.step.1.asp) the monthly plans currently range from $16.95 to $19.95, depending on commitment length. Has there been an announcement or implication that the S3 rates will be lower? Or are people referring to a prepay when they quote this $13/mo?

E

Bierboy

08-29-2006, 02:45 PM

Do yourself a favor and TiVo the show "It Takes a Thief" ;)Dude....I just checked and it's GONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

greg_burns

08-29-2006, 02:45 PM

Where are people getting this $13/mo service price?

According to TiVo's website (http://www.tivo.com/2.0.plans.step.1.asp) the monthly plans currently range from $16.95 to $19.95, depending on commitment length. Has there been an announcement or implication that the S3 rates will be lower? Or are people referring to a prepay when they quote this $13/mo?

E

Those higher prices include the cost of the box spread over time. Buying at retail and you only have to pay for service; $12.95 or MSD $6.95.

Bierboy

08-29-2006, 02:46 PM

Where are people getting this $13/mo service price?

According to TiVo's website (http://www.tivo.com/2.0.plans.step.1.asp) the monthly plans currently range from $16.95 to $19.95, depending on commitment length. Has there been an announcement or implication that the S3 rates will be lower? Or are people referring to a prepay when they quote this $13/mo?

EMy current S2 is $12.95/month. When I get the S3, I'll either MSD it at $6.95/month or drop my S2 and put my S3 on the current $12.95/month.

ah30k

08-29-2006, 03:00 PM

The money's just a simple bit of math, now others are arguing about the assumptions and the risk, but they seem to think they're arguing about the maths.I'm pointing out the sensitivity of your math. If your return on investment drops from +20% to -7% when the value of your lifetime drops from $800 resale value to $400 resale value after two years, you'd be foolish to jump into it without at least understanding the risks.

mwarner

08-29-2006, 03:02 PM

I'm OK with the $700 price.

But here's why I am not buying one:

Here is the real cost:

1. $700

2. $12.95 each and every month while I own the box

3. Advertisements in the interface

4. Advertisements when fast forwarding

You know, the monthly service fee may not be $12.95/month. If TiVo is no longer subsidizing the box and thus, making a profit on each sale, do they really need to charge you $12.95 per month? Just a thought...

-Matt

TexasAg

08-29-2006, 03:13 PM

Dan203

08-29-2006, 03:20 PM

I seriously doubt they will change the $12.95 and $6.95MSD prices specifically for the S3. It would just create too much confusion. However they could make the budled pricing lower then expected. I wouldn't be surprised to see the hardware upgrade charge be as low as $300, with the same monthly fees, for the bundles.

Dan

amjustice

08-29-2006, 03:28 PM

Turtleboy

08-29-2006, 03:41 PM

From Shanan's latest email:

Meanwhile, keep your eyes peeled over the next few weeks for a defining moment, oh yes. Watch your e-mail Inbox. Your TiVo Central screen. The twinkling eyes of your best TiVo friend.

jsmeeker

08-29-2006, 03:45 PM

:)

I'm watching! I'm Watching!!! :)

IJustLikeTivo

08-29-2006, 04:08 PM

I just logged on to Tivo.com and actually remembered my login information for my account. It appears that the lifetime subscription was purchased on May 13, 2000. Oh my God....so close and yet so far. So, I guess I am SOL with transfering it right?

Tell me about it, both of my lifetime units were activited in second quarter of 2000....... Arghhhhhhh. Actually, I have three lifetime units but the last is a DTiVo which is OBE.

MichaelK

08-29-2006, 06:50 PM

Several cable companies (Comcast and Cox I know for sure) are now digital simulcasting all the analog channel lineup which means when using a digital set top box rented from the cable company or using a CableCard when you tune to a traditionally analog channel (<100) you actually get the digital version now instead. If you use TV NTSC tuner or a non-digital box then you still tune to the analog version of those channels.

hence i said "usually"

Not many places have gone that route- although I believe comcast says they plan to do that everywhere?

MichaelK

08-29-2006, 07:25 PM

mattack

08-29-2006, 10:34 PM

megazone

08-29-2006, 10:38 PM

I agree with you. I also wonder where those who say TiVo announced this is not for the average consumer got their info from. Is it on TiVo's web site somewhere? In FCC filings? Where and when did TiVo announce that the S3 is for the above-average or high-end consumer? Wouldn't shareholders be a little upset at that, as shouldn't TiVo be marketing to the masses, and not just the technophiles?They've stated that a number of times now. It was definitely the party line at CES 2006 when I was there. And they've repeated it, such as on their quarterly conference calls, and at other events - such as here where it is a 'high end product'. (http://blog.tivolovers.com/314035.html)

megazone

08-29-2006, 10:40 PM

"TCD648250B"

So what ever happened to the "A" model? Is there a possibility of another unit that may be priced differently?Perhaps in time. But an 'A' to 'B' change is usually something minor, like a chip change, etc. The box at CES was a TCD648250. The first one certified by Cable Labs was TCD648250A. Then that was updated to TCD648250B. Sounds like minor changes during development. Perhaps some part proved unreliable and needed changing, or a supplier end of lifed a part and they had to switch to a newer one, etc. But note that they're all 250GB boxes.

megazone

08-29-2006, 10:43 PM

And they aren't "farming out their software" - they are developing versions for other hardware platforms

That's farming out your software. Only tivo's most valuble asset and all...You keep on using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. ;-)

'Farming out' means giving the work to someone else. So if you say Company A is farming out their software to Company B, it means they're having Company B write their software for them. NOT that they're licensing their software to Company B to use.

In fact, it'd be the opposite. Company B is farming out their software development to Company A by licensing their software.

TiVo is not farming out their software. They do farm out their hardware development, hiring companies to build the hardware for them.

megazone

08-29-2006, 10:47 PM

What are the chances that TiVo will use the same pricing model they currently use on the SD models?

....$20.00 per month. No upfront hardware cost. Right now the bundles are based around the single tuner S2. If you want an 80-hour S2DT it is $30 up front, then you pay for the bundle. For a 180-hour S2DT it is $130, plus bundle. The DRT400 used to be more, but it doesn't look like they sell that anymore.

The S3 will probably follow the same pattern - some up-front cost, plus the bundle. Based on comparisons with retail the bundled value of the hardware seems to be about $70. Which would put the S3 at $729, plus bundle. But maybe they'll have other bundle options for it.

Adam1115

08-29-2006, 10:47 PM

.......And you looked in to your crystal ball to see this or do you work for Comcast in the new products and/or initiatives department?

What are you talking about? The TiVo upgrade is a SOFTWARE upgrade to an EXISTING product.

Unless you know of a way they could "PUSH OUT" a bigger hard drive via a software update?

megazone

08-29-2006, 10:56 PM

For me $799 is too much. For others, perhaps not. But what I want to know is why does it have to be $799. Why did they go with such a large hard drive out of the gate.250GB is only 25-35 hours of HD content. And the hard drive isn't going to be a huge cost factor, as others have said. If they dropped to a 160GB drive, you'd be talking about 15-20 hours of HD, but you wouldn't save a lot. Checking PriceWatch.com, the best price on a 250GB SATA drive is $62.99, 160GB is $54.69. $8.30 difference. And TiVo buys wholesale, those are retail prices. If anything I think there may be a 500GB model in the future.

Prices WILL come down. They always do. So if $800 is too much for you - wait. In a few months it'll probably be lower, maybe after the holidays. And there may be sales and specials to push them during the holiday shopping season.

The Pioneer DVR-810H was $1200 MSRP when it shipped. They were available online immediately for more like $1000. I bought mine a couple of months later for just over $700. A year later they were under $400, and I've seen them for less.

If $800 is the MSRP, the wholesale cost is less than that. And there will be online discount resellers who charge less and make a smaller margin. I pretty much never buy electronics at retail - I just got my new HDTV for $2785, Best Buy wants something like $3300 or $3400, on sale. If, as was posted above, the merchant's cost is $500 - I won't be surprised to see it for $650 shortly after launch.

megazone

08-29-2006, 10:58 PM

Anyways, I would have to be in the market for 3 S3s if I ditched Sat (I'll live with SD on the final unit).

3 units at $799/each is pretty steep. Not sure what I'll do.

How many would you all buy at that price?It depends on what you can afford. Personally I'd probably buy one for my main set, and then buy more when the price drops in the future. But I just dropped $3k on a new TV and stand, and plan to get an S3 and PS3 to use with it. So I'm tapped. :-)

megazone

08-29-2006, 11:02 PM

Thanks for the reply. Is there any way to get a better signal from the cable? What is the Mot Box doing to make the picture noticeably better? Is there someway I can duplicate whatever the STB is doing? I hate the thought of buying an S3 and then feeling the quality sucks on non-HD channels.I'd try the TiVo on the feed that is feeding your STB now. If the quality is better there, then it is the feed in the room with the TiVo that is the issue. Normally the picture from the internal tuner is pretty good. And be sure you compare Apples to Apples - the same recording quality on both units. And when comparing to the raw signal, using Best on the TiVo - or just LiveTV - is the best option for a fair comparison.

If you have noise on the line, a video filter can help. If it is a weaks signal, there are signal amplifiers.

And the S3 will be a new box. That means it may have a completely different encoder. Also, the MPEG settings matter. For example, my Pioneer DVR-810H uses the same chips as the 2xx series S2. But the picture quality at Best and High is, IMHO, better. Because the Pioneer is a DVD model and it records at 720x480 and higher bitrates, while the standard S2 is 480x480 and lower bitrates. I find that High on the DVD box is comparable to Best on the non-DVD box.

Since the S3 is designed for HD, they may have cranked up the resolution and bitrates on native recordings too. We'll see.

megazone

08-29-2006, 11:04 PM

The only time the encoder chip will be used is when watching analog cable (unless some of the TiVo-to-go and other features use it). I wonder how many people that will buy/own a Series 3 will use an analog cable feed.I've seen a number of comments from people saying they want an S3 for analog cable plus ATSC, so probably a fair number. And, as others have said, most digital cable systems are still analog up to 100. Some have started simulcast, but that's a minority. For myself, with Charter Digital, I don't have simulcast so *most* of my shows are still analog. So much so that I dumped one of my cable boxes and my main TiVo just records natively. I have a cable box on my secondary one. I did that since no box is more reliable - nothing to mis-tune or reset.

megazone

08-29-2006, 11:08 PM

With all due respect to the people who are saying they don't mind the price point, it reminds me of the PS3. There is not a single "normal" consumer who looked at the $599 price point for the real system and said, "What a great value!"No, but I plan to pre-order a PS3. They're targeting idiots like me for the first wave. It is the early adopter tax. They ream gadget freaks like myself, and then once that market is worked over the price drops and the next tier of buyers rushes in. Lather, rinse, repeat until it is priced for the average consumer a year or two later.

Having said that, I suspect the $799 is either an MSRP or just a number stuck in the system for now. The Dual Tuner is $249 (excluding rebates). I find it very hard to believe the new device is over triple that since TiVo has to cut deals to sell the $249 unit.Oh, it is certainly the MSRP. Which means there is room for rebates, sales, etc. I can easily believe it is $800 given the features and target. If that's too much - and I agree that it will be for most buyers - then wait six months and I'm sure it'll be lower. Or there'll be some online discounter selling it for less, rebates, etc.

megazone

08-29-2006, 11:09 PM

Hmmm.....$525 (or thereabouts)....I'm thinking I need a second job....temporarily....Or befriend a Best Buy employee. ;-)

If they can get them for $525 I'd be looking for them to sell them on eBay for less than retail. ;-) Sell it for $625 plus S&H and make $100 a box. :-)

megazone

08-29-2006, 11:11 PM

I would say it will be $799 with some sort of rebate, our price usually dosen't stray from what the system tells us. I'm worried their going to bump up the tivo service fee for HD...anyone hear any word of this?It seems highly unlikely the pricing will change. The service is still the same, and they're making the money on the hardware sales unlike with the S2. They did say they would not be subsidizing the S3 at the same levels as the S2.

As an employee are you limited in how many you can buy for $525? You could make a good buck reselling them for less than retail. ;-) (I'm sure that's against the rules.)

megazone

08-29-2006, 11:12 PM

Where are people getting this $13/mo service price?http://www.tivo.com/3.0.asp

megazone

08-29-2006, 11:12 PM

Dude....I just checked and it's GONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Yeah, It Takes A Thief hasn't aired in months. I still have an SP for it.

ah30k

08-29-2006, 11:52 PM

Is there a decoder ring for serial # to manufacture date? (I know that doesn't directly correspond to lifetime sub date.)

I may have checked this out in the past, but one of my Tivos was bought as a known busted unit (it was the normal bad hard drive thing) and had lifetime.

Having vague deja vu that someone provided a decoder ring long ago.

(My S1 isn't officially on my account. It seemed like too much of a bother to waste the phone people's time to track down the orig owner & transfer it, esp since the S1s don't give any benefits like transferring shows between units. Remember, this was a broken unit, bought through a web company.)If its not on your account, you won't be able to transfer it anyway. I'm not sure if this is standard or not, but when I was transferring an old unit into my account I needed to provide the name and phone number of the person who owned the unit. At first I didn't have the info and was told that I couldnt transfer ownership but could continue to use it under lifetime. I eventually got the info and was able to transfer it.

BTW Looks like megazone is having trouble sleeping or had a bit too much coffee!!

lessd

08-30-2006, 12:00 AM

If its not on your account, you won't be able to transfer it anyway. I'm not sure if this is standard or not, but when I was transferring an old unit into my account I needed to provide the name and phone number of the person who owned the unit. At first I didn't have the info and was told that I couldnt transfer ownership but could continue to use it under lifetime. I eventually got the info and was able to transfer it.

BTW Looks like megazone is having trouble sleeping or had a bit too much coffee!!

The orignal user information is not needed now just having the unit, (if TiVo wants to they can send you a message on that unit to prove it is your possession)

JDAWG11

08-30-2006, 12:23 AM

As an employee are you limited in how many you can buy for $525? You could make a good buck reselling them for less than retail. ;-) (I'm sure that's against the rules.)

Yes sir, they watch that like a hawk. Especially when a new product comes out, i.e. PSP and XBOX 360...So many people got fired for selling 360's online.

Bierboy

08-30-2006, 07:00 AM

Yeah, It Takes A Thief hasn't aired in months. I still have an SP for it.I meant the $$$$$$$$ is GONE!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:

DCIFRTHS

08-30-2006, 07:18 AM

250GB is only 25-35 hours of HD content. And the hard drive isn't going to be a huge cost factor, as others have said. If they dropped to a 160GB drive, you'd be talking about 15-20 hours of HD, but you wouldn't save a lot. Checking PriceWatch.com, the best price on a 250GB SATA drive is $62.99, 160GB is $54.69. $8.30 difference. And TiVo buys wholesale, those are retail prices. If anything I think there may be a 500GB model in the future. ...

Do you now feel that TiVo will be going with a SATA drive in the S3, or were you just using that drive as an example of pricing on drives?

SullyND

08-30-2006, 08:30 AM

Do you now feel that TiVo will be going with a SATA drive in the S3, or were you just using that drive as an example of pricing on drives?

I think a lot of us are assuming that the internal drive will be SATA as the external connection is E-SATA. It's not necessarily a given, but it does seem to make sense.

CCourtney

08-30-2006, 09:05 AM

The price gap between SATA and PATA has all but disappeared in the retail world, and it's virtually gone in the wholesale world. Why add another controller to the system when it's not necessary.

CCourtney

classicX

08-30-2006, 09:09 AM

What are you talking about? The TiVo upgrade is a SOFTWARE upgrade to an EXISTING product.

Unless you know of a way they could "PUSH OUT" a bigger hard drive via a software update?

I now have an image in my mind of little bulges in the cable wires travelling to each home that ordered a storage update, and arriving at the STB with a "pop" sound.

Thank you. :)

classicX

08-30-2006, 09:16 AM

I think a lot of us are assuming that the internal drive will be SATA as the external connection is E-SATA. It's not necessarily a given, but it does seem to make sense.

I seem to remember somewhere (perhaps the CES video corrections) that the internal drive will still be PATA. Only the external drive port is SATA. I could be wrong though.

DCIFRTHS

08-30-2006, 10:17 AM

I seem to remember somewhere (perhaps the CES video corrections) that the internal drive will still be PATA. Only the external drive port is SATA. I could be wrong though.

This statement came from MZ, who got his information at CES from a TiVo employee. My guess was that it was simply a mistake. At that time, MZ, some others and myself, had a discussion or two regarding this.

For many reasons, it was, and still is, my opinion, that it would make no sense to use a PATA drive in the S3 TiVo.

I was curious if MZ had changed his mind, and that is why I posted my question.

I won't be opening my S3 when I first get my hands on one, so maybe someone else will be open theirs, and post pictures for us :) Hopefully it won't be too long a wait...

bkdtv

08-30-2006, 11:19 AM

I seem to remember somewhere (perhaps the CES video corrections) that the internal drive will still be PATA. Only the external drive port is SATA. I could be wrong though.
I'm hoping it has two. The Broadcom chip with two SATA ports (began shipping in Jan' '06) has a much faster cpu than the chip with one SATA port and PATA (began shipping in Oct '05).

MickeS

08-30-2006, 11:36 AM

Which probably means it costs more... which means TiVo went with the old one. ;)

Dan203

08-30-2006, 01:26 PM

Or it could be why they added a B to the end of the model number. :)

Dan

jfh3

08-30-2006, 01:41 PM

Which probably means it costs more... which means TiVo went with the old one. ;)

Yeah, but that could be penny-wise, pound foolish. You would think that Tivo would want the best chip possible.

Certainly there was enough lead time to get the newer chip in the design, which, as Dan says, may account for the difference in the model numbers submitted to Cable Labs.

bkdtv

08-30-2006, 02:02 PM

Yeah, but that could be penny-wise, pound foolish. You would think that Tivo would want the best chip possible.

Certainly there was enough lead time to get the newer chip in the design, which, as Dan says, may account for the difference in the model numbers submitted to Cable Labs.I think it would all depend on when they finalized the design.

Tivo wouldn't have received shipments of the newer chip until mid-January. The actual cost difference between the chips is less than $5. That buys a much faster cpu, a second SATA port, and HDMI v1.2 instead of HDMI v1.1. I do believe both are pin-compatible and software compatible, so it's not like using the new chip would have required any significant hardware or software redesign.

I'm really hoping Tivo uses the newer chip for the faster cpu, as I think that would allow them to do much more with the Series3 in the future than they could with the slower one. We'll know which chip the Series3 uses as soon as we learn whether it has HDMI 1.1 or 1.2.

Update:

The difference in price is more than I thought. The older BC7401 costs $30 and uses a 676-pin BGA -- this is about $5 more than the chip in the Series2 DT. The newer BCM7400 costs $49.50 and uses a 1521-pin QFP. Hence, some hardware design changes would have been necessary.

Here's an article on the newer chip (it says January 2005, but it's 2006):

http://www.us.design-reuse.com/news/news12252.html

jfh3

08-30-2006, 02:15 PM

I think it would all depend on when they finalized the design.

Agreed, but that's what, at least three months (Feb/March/April) to build a box that Cable Labs got in June?

Some very nice features on the newer chip and certainly worth waiting for.

Dan203

08-30-2006, 02:23 PM

CCourtney

08-30-2006, 02:34 PM

They wouldn't have needed a production chip to build a box for CableLabs approval. They might have procured a preproduction sample from broadcom months earlier and built a prototype for CableLabs approval.

Dan

I would suspect that is what they did. Note that they would need to recertify with CableLabs if one peice of HW was changed, and this does require a model # change as well.

CCourtney

btwyx

08-30-2006, 02:40 PM

Yeah, but that could be penny-wise, pound foolish. You would think that Tivo would want the best chip possible.In the consumer electronics space things are very price sensitive. People are crying and screaming about a possible $799 price. If upgrading the chip blew the price point, it wouldn't be a good thing. In this sort of thing you reckon additional parts cost adds 10x the cost to the final product, so if as suggested the price difference in the chip is $5, the price difference in the final product could be $50.

An $849 price point vs a $799 price point could make a lot of difference to the success of the product.

TiVo may want the best chip, but you have to define "best". Price is a big factor, as is price/performance ratio. The most expensive chip may not be the "best" for the product.

Put it another way, hardware designers are always dumping cheap under-specified hardware on the heads of software engineers and expecting them to make it work. That's just the nature of the business.

classicX

08-30-2006, 04:22 PM

I would suspect that is what they did. Note that they would need to recertify with CableLabs if one peice of HW was changed, and this does require a model # change as well.

CCourtney

Interesting - so changing the internal hard drive would "break" the CableLabs certification? Could your cable company then deny you access because it's not a certified piece of hardware?

classicX

08-30-2006, 04:28 PM

An $849 price point vs a $799 price point could make a lot of difference to the success of the product.

<sarcasm=+10>
<Howard Dean>
YEEEEEAAAAAAAARRRRRGGGHHHHHH!!!!!
</Howard Dean>
</sarcasm>

I sincerely doubt that. Someone willing to pay $800 for a product is not likely to second guess that decision if it were $50 more, which is about 6.25 percent more. Heck, that's what you pay in taxes at retail, and sometimes more!

Then again it could be the whole "$1" perception ploy - $799 in peoples' minds seems like a lot less than $800 for some reason.

Now, it might be a different story if we're in the $300-$400 range. $299 is significantly more attractive than $349, where the $50 represents which is more than 16% more.

lessd

08-30-2006, 04:33 PM

Interesting - so changing the internal hard drive would "break" the CableLabs certification? Could your cable company then deny you access because it's not a certified piece of hardware?

Good point..if you already had a CC installed and changed the HD would the cable card not work ? I will let the underground be the first to find out. I also saw a warranty sticker on the back of a picture of the Series 3, what up with that? (TiVo had stickers on the Series 1 but not an any of the Series 2 )

MichaelK

08-30-2006, 05:08 PM

not really relevent but I think The new Directv NDS HD DVR uses SATA inside and out. (have to go look at earls pictures again...)

Does that mean they use the newer chip?

MichaelK

08-30-2006, 05:10 PM

Good point..if you already had a CC installed and changed the HD would the cable card not work ? I will let the underground be the first to find out. I also saw a warranty sticker on the back of a picture of the Series 3, what up with that? (TiVo had stickers on the Series 1 but not an any of the Series 2 )

I was wondering out loud in another thread if cablelabs made them put the sticker on- maybe that's the reason- they need to try to keep people from changing hard drives???

MickeS

08-30-2006, 05:17 PM

I sincerely doubt that. Someone willing to pay $800 for a product is not likely to second guess that decision if it were $50 more, which is about 6.25 percent more. Heck, that's what you pay in taxes at retail, and sometimes more!

That logic doesn't work. Because then you can say, those who were willing to pay $849 are not likely to second guess that if it's just $50 more... and then you're at $899... and those who are willing to pay that aren't likely to second guess that, and then you're at $949... all of a sudden, you just added $150, but by your logic, you're still looking at exactly the same number of potential buyers.

MichaelK

08-30-2006, 05:33 PM

bkdtv

08-30-2006, 05:51 PM

Interesting - so changing the internal hard drive would "break" the CableLabs certification? Could your cable company then deny you access because it's not a certified piece of hardware?
The CableCard wouldn't be tied to the hard drive, it would be tied to a sequence of numbers stored in the Tivo's firmware.

not really relevent but I think The new Directv NDS HD DVR uses SATA inside and out. (have to go look at earls pictures again...)
No.

The DirecTV NDS HD-DVR uses an older hardware design based on 2004 technology--- more specifically, it uses the BCM7038/BCM7411 combo. The BCM7038 formed the basis of the DirecTivo HR10-250 as well. DirecTV took the HR10-250 design, added on a separate BCM7411 MPEG-4 decoder, and doubled the memory. Obviously there are some other changes to the devices on the PCI bus (one ATSC tuner instead of two), but the "heart" of the two boxes is the same.

I would not be surprised if DirecTV "converted" their HR10-250 production lines to HR20 production, and reused many of the same parts. This solution is not nearly as integrated as more recent (Fall 2005) designs from Broadcom. The Series3 is unlikely to use such an older design for the simple reason that it was not intended to support CableCard.

lessd

08-30-2006, 06:39 PM

The CableCard wouldn't be tied to the hard drive, it would be tied to a sequence of numbers stored in the Tivo's firmware.

The TSN is but do you know for sure if the CC is not set up on the hard drive by some type of signature that is on the Hard Drive, Norton Ghost uses something like that.

I at this point have no idea

seattlewendell

08-30-2006, 07:20 PM

What are you talking about? The TiVo upgrade is a SOFTWARE upgrade to an EXISTING product.

Unless you know of a way they could "PUSH OUT" a bigger hard drive via a software update?
Here is article about Comcast buying 1.7 million new boxes. Some have double the dard drive space of their current boxes.
http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/CA6297823.html?display=Technology
Mpeg2, Mpeg4, and UBS 2.0 networking capability.
What?

Dan203

08-30-2006, 07:22 PM

I was just reading something non-TiVo related over on AVS Forum and someone mentioned that CEDIA is actually going on September 14th-17th. Fits right in with the time frame given for this thread.

Dan

seattlewendell

08-30-2006, 07:34 PM

http://www.tivo.com/3.0.asp
Hmmm. Why are those rates, cheaper than these rates
http://www.tivo.com/2.0.plans.step.1.asp

MurrayJimW

08-30-2006, 07:41 PM

Hmmm. Why are those rates, cheaper than these rates
http://www.tivo.com/2.0.plans.step.1.asp

You get a subsidized box with the higher rate....you are only buying service at the lower one.

headless chicken

08-30-2006, 07:52 PM

Ok then. It's official. Goodbye Series2, Hello Scientific Atlanta 8300 HD.

Cablevision will get my hard earned greenbacks until TiVo offers some serious rebates or a more reasonable price.

Dan203

08-30-2006, 07:53 PM

To be more clear the link Megazone posted is for service only on a box you already own. The link you posted includes a Series 2 TiVo in the cost.

Dan

MurrayJimW

08-30-2006, 08:05 PM

Ok then. It's official. Goodbye Series2, Hello Scientific Atlanta 8300 HD.

Cablevision will get my hard earned greenbacks until TiVo offers some serious rebates or a more reasonable price.

I have one of those boxes and I cannot express to you the endless annoyances and general disgust I feel for this box having owned Tivos since their inception. I'm sure it would be fine if I had not been spoiled by Tivo, but since I have; the 8300 is a turd.

I'm looking forward to the S3 when I can return the 8300. Unfortunately, an S2 on a 50 inch plasma yields less than a quality picture so the 8300 stays until the S3 is available.

megazone

08-30-2006, 08:36 PM

I was curious if MZ had changed his mind, and that is why I posted my question.Yeah, I know they told me PATA at CES but at this point, looking at the Broadcom chips available, etc, I think it is probably all-SATA. It makes more sense. This is a product they need to produce for years to come.

I won't be opening my S3 when I first get my hands on one, so maybe someone else will be open theirs, and post pictures for us :) Hopefully it won't be too long a wait...I'm sure someone will post photos the nanosecond they can.

mattack

08-30-2006, 09:54 PM

If its not on your account, you won't be able to transfer it anyway.

I did read the followup article btw.

But my intention was that if it really was old enough for the grandfathered-in transfer, I would go through the hassle of having it officially transferred to my account (if that is still necessary). I strongly suspect it's not old enough, and my reading of the grandfather clause quoted in this thread sounds like it might only be for the original owner, but it'd sure be cool if I had a transferrable lifetime to an S3!

08-30-2006, 10:08 PM

Unless you call at a very busy time, the transfer should not take more than 5-10 minutes on the phone. No need to guess.

Tippy

08-30-2006, 10:09 PM

Ok then. It's official. Goodbye Series2, Hello Scientific Atlanta 8300 HD.

Cablevision will get my hard earned greenbacks until TiVo offers some serious rebates or a more reasonable price.

Do you have one yet? If not, I can tell you from my personal experience that the 8300 HD is a pos. I ONLY use it for the HD recording. Everything else is on my two S2 models.

TiVo Troll

08-30-2006, 11:23 PM

I do actually think that most people in the 799 camp are in the "at any cost" camp. At least judging by the posts in their and other threads.

Myself - I'm hesitant to say out loud but assume TiVo already figured out the pricing- I'm in the Shy of a grand camp (for ONE unit)- so 799, 849, 899, 949 would yeild the same sale in my household.

If somehow they get the price to be Sub 500 then I'd be in the two unit camp. I can dream but doesn't seem like it will do that anytime soon...

Depending on exactly what Series 3 provides, and whether it will or won't offer manual channel mapping for digital cable w/o a CableCard, I could be in either "camp"!

If a comprehensive revue is posted soon after Series 3 is released maybe I'll know before having to actually order one!

kdmorse

08-30-2006, 11:35 PM

Yeah, I know they told me PATA at CES but at this point, looking at the Broadcom chips available, etc, I think it is probably all-SATA. It makes more sense. This is a product they need to produce for years to come.

Well - they told me PATA in Vegas as well, and that was less than three months ago. They would not however let me peek inside to see for myself :)

We probably won't know for sure until someone buys one and cracks it open.

-Ken

headless chicken

08-31-2006, 04:33 AM

Do you have one yet? If not, I can tell you from my personal experience that the 8300 HD is a pos. I ONLY use it for the HD recording. Everything else is on my two S2 models.

Have one? Yes. Just got it. Installed it? No. I'm waiting for my new plasma and premium 5.1 speaker setup to arrive. I just shelled out big bucks on a HT system and so S3, as lovely as it may be is out of my budget at it's current price tag.

I'd keep my S2 arround, but what's the point of having HDTV when your playback is all in SD? I no longer watch live TV and have been hugely reliant on my TiVo the past two years, but there is no other affordable alternative for recording hi def with cable at this point.

GoHokies!

08-31-2006, 06:02 AM

OK, I've now joined the "Where the hell is it?" camp....

My Tivo died on Sunday, and it's replacement will be here today, I hope. I also bought a new HD TV Tuesday, and Comcast will be bringing me an 8300 on Saturday. So in the meantime, I've just had the TV hooked up to cable, and I am completely and totally lost. It's been so long since I've been without a Tivo that I honestly don't know how to watch TV when I don't have a library of TV shows that I've recorded waiting for me. The new S2 and the 8300 will be a good stopgap measure I'm sure, but the moment an S3 is available, I think that I'll be jumping on it...

I'm sure it's coming soon, but even yesterday won't be soon enough ;)

Headless, it looks like we're in the same situation, I plan on running both the S2 and the 8300 into the TV, and only using the 8300 to record HD, and using the S2 to record everything that shows on a channel that isn't offered in HD (not sure how much use the S2 is going to see there, as Comcast's HD package seems pretty complete).

classicX

08-31-2006, 07:22 AM

That logic doesn't work. Because then you can say, those who were willing to pay $849 are not likely to second guess that if it's just $50 more... and then you're at $899... and those who are willing to pay that aren't likely to second guess that, and then you're at $949... all of a sudden, you just added $150, but by your logic, you're still looking at exactly the same number of potential buyers.

Your logic is flawed because:

those willing to pay $799 (base) != those willing to pay $849 (base) != those willing to pay $900 (base).

We're not talking about the price increasing over time, which is the only way a person would have any reason to do what you say.

We're talking about a static price. $799. or $849. or $950.

Person 1: I was willing to pay $800, and the price is $850. OK, I guess I would pay $850.

Person 1: I was willing to $800, and the price is $950. I'll wait until the price comes down.

Think about it a little more, it makes sense because the price is not increasing over time, it's the initial price.

classicX

08-31-2006, 07:24 AM

Here is article about Comcast buying 1.7 million new boxes. Some have double the dard drive space of their current boxes.
http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/CA6297823.html?display=Technology
Mpeg2, Mpeg4, and UBS 2.0 networking capability.
What?

New boxes doesn't mean that they are for Tivo software.

And even if they are, I would think that they are for the Comcast markets that DON'T have the motorola boxes - like mine. I have SA boxes and I want Tivo software. They'll have to change the box for that to happen, or Tivo would have to develop new software that could run on the SA boxes.

cwoody222

08-31-2006, 07:41 AM

New boxes doesn't mean that they are for Tivo software.

And even if they are, I would think that they are for the Comcast markets that DON'T have the motorola boxes - like mine. I have SA boxes and I want Tivo software. They'll have to change the box for that to happen, or Tivo would have to develop new software that could run on the SA boxes.

Assuming Comcast will offer the TiVo option in all of their markets, that is. They may not.

Cable co. have different offerings all over their markets... different software on their boxes, different hardware, different lineups, different prices, etc.

If Comcast would have to put a Moto box in the middle of one of their markets that have SA boxes, I would be skeptical that they'd do that.

What happens when a SA customer wants TiVo? Suddenly it's not just as easy as "OK, customer, just wait, we'll download it to your box". Now it's "Oh, customer, you need a new box... come down to our office... or schedule a service call... and then you'll need to download some new software (assuming it's not pre-loaded)."

Not exactly an easy sale.

Makes more sense (I'm guessing) for them to - over a long period of time - to phase out all their SA boxes entirely so all the customers have the "option" of TiVo. However, do they have an agreement with SA? I'd assume so.

ab3tx

08-31-2006, 08:20 AM

If Comcast would have to put a Moto box in the middle of one of their markets that have SA boxes, I would be skeptical that they'd do that.

What happens when a SA customer wants TiVo? Suddenly it's not just as easy as "OK, customer, just wait, we'll download it to your box". Now it's "Oh, customer, you need a new box... come down to our office... or schedule a service call... and then you'll need to download some new software (assuming it's not pre-loaded)."

Not exactly an easy sale.

Makes more sense (I'm guessing) for them to - over a long period of time - to phase out all their SA boxes entirely so all the customers have the "option" of TiVo. However, do they have an agreement with SA? I'd assume so.

They can't just swap boxes (Moto <-> SA) on demand. They would have to totally rip out the backend and start over again. The logistics and costs of it won't allow it to happen, though. If you have a Moto box now, you're stuck with a Moto box (Note: I know there are third-party boxes, but I don't think we will see TiVo on them soon, if ever, under the rules currently in effect.)

I think this is where the new agreement with Cox might be beneficial for every cable customer in the long run. Comcast seems to have more Moto vs. SA, and Cox seems to be the opposite, more SA vs. Moto. Perhaps with TiVo developing Moto software for Comcast and SA software for Cox, they can then use the software for the "other" brand on Comcast and Cox, and to take it one step further, have turnkey software to sell to other MSOs. It just depends on how the agreements are written as to if TiVo can use the software elsewhere.

ETA: This might mean we could possibly see TWC TiVo boxes, which would help with the SDV problem.

cwoody222

08-31-2006, 08:28 AM

CCourtney

08-31-2006, 09:05 AM

They can't just swap boxes (Moto <-> SA) on demand. They would have to totally rip out the backend and start over again. The logistics and costs of it won't allow it to happen, though. If you have a Moto box now, you're stuck with a Moto box (Note: I know there are third-party boxes, but I don't think we will see TiVo on them soon, if ever, under the rules currently in effect.)

I think this is where the new agreement with Cox might be beneficial for every cable customer in the long run. Comcast seems to have more Moto vs. SA, and Cox seems to be the opposite, more SA vs. Moto. Perhaps with TiVo developing Moto software for Comcast and SA software for Cox, they can then use the software for the "other" brand on Comcast and Cox, and to take it one step further, have turnkey software to sell to other MSOs. It just depends on how the agreements are written as to if TiVo can use the software elsewhere.

ETA: This might mean we could possibly see TWC TiVo boxes, which would help with the SDV problem.

I'm currently in a TWC area (soon to become a Comcast Area.) Are area supports both Mot and SA boxes. Use to be a Moto only, but they had more success w/ the SA DVRs than the Moto DVRs with the same Moto Head Ends. They went with the SA DVRs in the end, but can support the Moto Boxes.

They still hand out Moto STBs and even went to the iGuide for the Moto STBs while using another guide system for the SA DVRs.

CCourtney

ah30k

08-31-2006, 09:37 AM

So basically you've confirmed that ALL Comcast customers will NOT be able to get TiVo software? Only those that currently have Moto boxes? And that's determined by?... blind luck? inheritance from past companies / territories?

What does TWC use? A mix of both? I'm in a post-Adelphia, now-TWC market and we have SA boxes.MSOs launch service in a particular geographic region that is serviced by a "Headend" that broadcasts the RF signal as well as manage authorizations for users. These headends can be from either SA or Moto. MSOs may choose for strategic reasons to go with one or the other entirely or may choose a mix based upon current winds.

Also with cable territory swaps, MSOs inherit headends and may or may not change them out.

OpenCable may change some of this in the future.

HDTiVo

08-31-2006, 09:38 AM

Does it bother anyone that the article was from 1/9/06 and the 1.7M boxes were not MOTs?
(They were Samsung and Panasonic)

Bierboy

08-31-2006, 10:17 AM

Can we PLEASE get this thread back on topic? These posts have NOTHING to do with the upcoming SA S3.

MichaelK

08-31-2006, 11:07 AM

...

Makes more sense (I'm guessing) for them to - over a long period of time - to phase out all their SA boxes entirely so all the customers have the "option" of TiVo. However, do they have an agreement with SA? I'd assume so.

or have TiVO develop a SA port too...

Cox apparently has a lot of SA equipment also...

dylanursula

08-31-2006, 11:08 AM

Anymore posts by the Best buy guy at AVS???

PaulS

08-31-2006, 11:21 AM

Do you have one yet? If not, I can tell you from my personal experience that the 8300 HD is a pos. I ONLY use it for the HD recording. Everything else is on my two S2 models.

+1

Worst excuse for a "DVR" that I've ever used (compared to : standalone Series2, DirecTiVo, Comcast Motorola 6412).

jctivo

08-31-2006, 12:25 PM

Who knows if this is true, but I got this information when I was talking to a tivo customer service agent on the phone last night. I was inquiring about how much time I had left on my gift subscription from those free 140 hour tivos last year.

I told her that I was thinking of canceling my tivo because I just got an HD TV and tivo can't do hd for comcast. The tivo rep said something like, we will have one out (series 3) before Christmas. So then I asked about the cost in relation to my current tivo's. She said that the new S3 tivo would only be $6.95 per month since I already have a tivo on a monthly plan. Then I said what if I canceled and only had the series 3. She said that would be $12.95. Again, who knows if it's true but that's what I heard on the phone with tivo last night.

Take it for what it is...possibly informed information from a tivo customer service agent or uninformed...

jctivo

Bierboy

08-31-2006, 01:28 PM

greg_burns

08-31-2006, 01:38 PM

That's the way it's been for awhile.

I took his post as meant to be confirmation of the S3 monthly pricing. Which, if correct, is no surpise.

morac

08-31-2006, 01:38 PM

That's the way it's been for awhile. If you add any TiVo now to a current $12.95 monthly plan, your added unit is only $6.95/month. I'm not sure what you mean by "cancelled", but, in my case, I currently have an S2 at $12.95/mo. When I get my S3, if I add it to my current plan, it will be an additional $6.95/mo. If I drop my S2 ("cancel") and just add my S3, it will be $12.95/mo.I thought all new TiVos are force-bundled with at least a year of service at $12.95 and only after that could you drop down to the $6.95 discounted price?

Bierboy

08-31-2006, 02:02 PM

I thought all new TiVos are force-bundled with at least a year of service at $12.95 and only after that could you drop down to the $6.95 discounted price?Nope....if I get an S3 (through retail), and drop my S2, it goes on at $12.95/month....just like my currrent S2 is billed now. And if I keep my S2, the S3 goes immediately on my account at $6.95/mo.

Bierboy

08-31-2006, 02:03 PM

I took his post as meant to be confirmation of the S3 monthly pricing. Which, if correct, is no surpise.I took it as some new piece of information. Which it isn't.

Dan203

08-31-2006, 02:52 PM

Nope....if I get an S3 (through retail), and drop my S2, it goes on at $12.95/month....just like my currrent S2 is billed now. And if I keep my S2, the S3 goes immediately on my account at $6.95/mo.

There is however still a one year commitment period. If you cancel before then you're subject to a $150 cancellation fee.

Dan

MichaelK

08-31-2006, 03:15 PM

and I think you can bail in the first 30 days without a committment?

Bierboy

08-31-2006, 03:25 PM

There is however still a one year commitment period. If you cancel before then you're subject to a $150 cancellation fee.

Dan

Dan, I just checked TiVo's info page on that, and it says nothing about the early cancellation fee. It simply states...

"You can transfer any service agreement to another TiVo DVR of any make or model at any time. (For Product Lifetime Service transfer policies, see below.) Just go to Manage My Account. After you log in to Manage My Account, select Change service number from the left navigation bar, and follow the on-screen prompts."

Nothing about any early cancellation fee.

Page is here. (http://customersupport.tivo.com/knowbase/root/public/tv090701.htm?)

Dan203

08-31-2006, 03:37 PM

Bierboy

08-31-2006, 03:43 PM

Check out this FAQ...

http://www.tivo.com/1.6.2.asp

It says there is an Early Termination Fee of "up to $200" for cancelation prior to one year, but after the initial 30 day guarantee period.

Or just do a Google search for... "Early Termination Fee site:tivo.com" ...it will pull up all sorts of pages that say this same thing.

DanOK...now that is very clear. I just don't understand why they don't spell it out on the page I mentioned above? That seems like a place to do it, too. Thanks!

bkdtv

08-31-2006, 04:04 PM

Yeah, I know they told me PATA at CES but at this point, looking at the Broadcom chips available, etc, I think it is probably all-SATA. It makes more sense. This is a product they need to produce for years to come.
I personally will not spend $500+ on a Series3 with an older Broadcom chipset like the 7401 released last year. The BCM7401 is just a cheaper, integrated version of the BCM7038+BCM7411 with added OpenCable (CableCard) support. Its processor is comparable to the one found in the HR10 HDTV Tivo from DirecTV -- and we all about the performance problems with that box. If the Series3 were to use this processor, it would not be able to support significant improvements in interface, graphics, or interactivity in coming years.

The processor in the newer BCM7400 is roughly twice as fast -- 930 MIPS vs 450 MIPS. The 2D and 3D graphics capabilities of the chipset are also improved. The processor in the BCM7400 is fast enough to run Java applications at reasonable speed. It's able to support a high-definition interface with 3D elements (as opposed to an upconverted SD interface), while maintaining a high level of responsiveness. It's potentially able to support the kind of interactivity you see on HD-DVD.

If Tivo uses the newer chip from Broadcom (released last January), that indicates to me that they intend to explore graphical improvements to the Tivo interface which take advantage of high-def displays. It also says to me that they are serious about developing and integrating new interactive applications and content, such as subscription music and video services. Without the BCM7400, none of these things are likely to happen due to hardware limitations. Without the BCM7400, the Series3 is essentially just a Series2 with support for HDTV and drive expansion, with little prospect for future enhancements and services that take advantage of high-def.

btwyx

08-31-2006, 04:29 PM

Without the BCM7400, the Series3 is essentially just a Series2 with support for HDTV and drive expansion, with little prospect for future enhancements and services that take advantage of high-def.Sounds fine to me, I want my S3 to be a DT TiVo which does HD. Its basic TiVo functionality I'm after, Anything else is a bonus.

jctivo

08-31-2006, 04:58 PM

Yes, I meant it as pricing information for the series 3. I thought that it had been rumoured that the Series 3 might cost more monthly than a series 1 or 2 tivo.

greg_burns

08-31-2006, 04:59 PM

Yes, I meant it as pricing information for the series 3. I thought that it had been rumoured that the Series 3 might cost more monthly than a series 1 or 2 tivo.

No one knows for sure, but most seem to think it is very doubtful.

bkdtv

08-31-2006, 05:27 PM

Pictures of the final Series3 product and the retail box can be found here:

http://www.pvrwire.com/2006/08/31/tivo-series-3-unboxed/

btwyx

08-31-2006, 05:37 PM

Pictures of the final Series3 product and the retail box can be found here:

http://www.pvrwire.com/2006/08/31/tivo-series-3-unboxed/As the comments say:

So um, who, what, when, where, why, how?

And what store can someone walk out of to retrieve such a treasure right now?

jeffrypennock

08-31-2006, 05:39 PM

Pictures of the final Series3 product and the retail box can be found here:

http://www.pvrwire.com/2006/08/31/tivo-series-3-unboxed/

WHOA! Where did these pictures come from?

Is this being shipped to vendors and somebody got one for themselves or do Beta products ship in nice, pretty boxes like this?

bkdtv

08-31-2006, 05:47 PM

Is this being shipped to vendors and somebody got one for themselves or do Beta products ship in nice, pretty boxes like this?
It's definitely the final product. If Best Buy is getting them 9/17, chances are they are being shipped to distributers in the United States right now. That person may work for a distributer, or he may work for a consumer electronics store that was sent a unit for display purposes.

Dan203

08-31-2006, 05:47 PM

Before the S2DT units shipped they sent production samples to various online review sites so that they could write up a review of the product to be available the day of launch. I'm guessing these photos same from one of those reviewers. Although they are usually required to sign an NDA saying they wont post anything about the product until the day of release, so it seems odd that these photos showed up today. Unless of course TiVo's got a late day press release scheduled. :eek:

Dan

ashu

08-31-2006, 05:49 PM

Just spotted it via HDBeat (http://www.hdbeat.com/2006/08/31/tivo-series-3-unboxing/) too ... amazing thats omeone already posted these. Looks kinda like the interior of a music/AV store (or someone lucky's personal Home Theater!)

ChuckyBox

08-31-2006, 06:12 PM

Pictures of the final Series3 product and the retail box can be found here:

http://www.pvrwire.com/2006/08/31/tivo-series-3-unboxed/
Am I the only one that thinks that packaging looks awfully... Apple-like?

Edit: Okay, I had another look. It isn't Apple-like, it's eerily Appleized. (Anybody who has purchased a Mac laptop within the last few years can back me up.) WTF?

Troy J B

08-31-2006, 06:14 PM

and contrary to the beta photo's, there are no warranty void stickers on the exterior of the case to break to upgrade the internal hard drives.

seattlewendell

08-31-2006, 06:19 PM

New boxes doesn't mean that they are for Tivo software.

And even if they are, I would think that they are for the Comcast markets that DON'T have the motorola boxes - like mine. I have SA boxes and I want Tivo software. They'll have to change the box for that to happen, or Tivo would have to develop new software that could run on the SA boxes.
Yes, you are correct I DON"T KNOW. and neither does Adam which was my original point. He said no way way Comcast would do this and no way Comcast would do that blah, blah blah. I said hold on. You don't work for Comcast and you don't have a crystal ball. You don't know what the company is going to do. He responded with some nonsensical answer about existing customers no being able top get large boxes etc. etc. Comcast has about 10 million customers. I posted the link to show that Comcast jut bought enough boxes to give 10% of their customers DVR's with large HD's. That percentage goes up if you factor in that not all their customers have DVR's. My point in posting the link is that we don't know what Comcast is going to do. 1.5 million new boxes seems just about right if they were planning a rollout of better boxes. I am posting information so people can draw their own conclusions. I just have a problem people make absolute statements. No way XYZ. No way? How do you know?

Also about the SA and Moto boxes. About 1 year ago during their earnings call Comcast said that they use boxes from various sources so that their supply chain is no tied to one company. Also to keep getting the best prices on their boxes they feel it's best to have competition rather than give all their business to one company. Whether or not this make sense doesn't matter. The point is that this is their philosophy. Since they are now in bed with Tivo don't you think they have Tivo working on software for both boxes? Just a thought.

Dan203

08-31-2006, 06:19 PM

Good catch! So someone should be able to crack theirs open and shoot some pictures on day one. :)

Dan

MickeS

08-31-2006, 06:20 PM

So how long until we get a decent review of this thing? Can't be long now...

Dan203

08-31-2006, 06:32 PM

Probably not until after TiVo send out a press release. They usually do that on Tuesdays so I'm guessing either next Tuesday or the one after that. (9/5 or 9/12)

Dan

jsmeeker

08-31-2006, 06:35 PM

aztivo

08-31-2006, 06:45 PM

Am I the only one that thinks that packaging looks awfully... Apple-like?

Edit: Okay, I had another look. It isn't Apple-like, it's eerily Appleized. (Anybody who has purchased a Mac laptop within the last few years can back me up.) WTF?
who cares it is what is inside that we want they could send it to me in a garbage bag as long as I get that ohh so lovely S3 tivo I will be happy... BTW you must realize that a LOT of people like apple packaging so if Tivo thinks this may help sell more boxes g-d bless

ChuckyBox

08-31-2006, 06:58 PM

who cares it is what is inside that we want they could send it to me in a garbage bag as long as I get that ohh so lovely S3 tivo I will be happy... BTW you must realize that a LOT of people like apple packaging so if Tivo thinks this may help sell more boxes g-d bless
I was suggesting something a little stronger than TiVo just copying Apple's swell, feel-good packaging, but I was hoping you could connect the dots yourself. It could be a copycat thing, but the most obvious place to get Apple packaging is at an Apple manufacturing plant. You know, the ones where they make Apple computers.

aztivo

08-31-2006, 07:02 PM

I was suggesting something a little stronger than TiVo just copying Apple's swell, feel-good packaging, but I was hoping you could connect the dots yourself. It could be a copycat thing, but the most obvious place to get Apple packaging is at an Apple manufacturing plant. You know, the ones where they make Apple computers.
well I was hoping that the apple is buying tivo rummors would have died down but I guess that some people will always look to those.. wasnt apple going to by sony as well??

Bierboy

08-31-2006, 07:07 PM

Am I the only one that thinks that packaging looks awfully... Apple-like?.....And that's awful for exactly what reason?

I mean, who the heck cares about the packaging.....gimme the guts!!!!!

Test

08-31-2006, 07:23 PM

I was suggesting something a little stronger than TiVo just copying Apple's swell, feel-good packaging, but I was hoping you could connect the dots yourself. It could be a copycat thing, but the most obvious place to get Apple packaging is at an Apple manufacturing plant. You know, the ones where they make Apple computers.

adding more fuel to the fire...

Is apple planning an event on Sept. 12th, in San Francisco?

http://www.engadget.com/2006/08/31/apple-planning-event-in-sf-on-september-12th/

anyway...count me in for an s3 in the 0-500 range

Dan203

08-31-2006, 07:27 PM

There is some speculation that TiVo is working with Apple on an HME based download service linked to iTunes.

Dan

etemple

08-31-2006, 07:28 PM

Pictures!
http://www.pvrwire.com/2006/08/31/tivo-series-3-unboxed/

If only I had a Hi-def tv . . .
sigh.

ChuckyBox

08-31-2006, 07:37 PM

well I was hoping that the apple is buying tivo rummors would have died down but I guess that some people will always look to those.. wasnt apple going to by sony as well??
I thought it was Sony buying Apple, not the other way around.

But I'm not suggesting that Apple is buying TiVo. There has been talk of some kind of relationship for some time, lately it has been an iTunes movie download kind of thing. So let's say there is going to be a partnership of some kind: movie downloads or TiVo DVR software on the Mac or closer integration with the video iPod or something. And maybe part of that deal is Apple sells TiVo boxes in their Apple stores and online. Maybe Apple would want the packaging to match all of their other products. Or maybe they're building the Series 3 for TiVo. (TiVo has declined to state who is manufacturing the Series 3.) You know, something interesting.

Cripes, people around here used to be good at this stuff. TiVoJerry posted a picture of his cubicle, and people figured out every piece of equipment in the place, what he was doing that morning, what he had for lunch, and his girlfriend's shoe size. Now we get a bunch of pictures of Series 3 packaging (which is about the only new thing in the pictures), and without the logos you'd swear it was Apple packaging, and it's all "Look. Box. Shiny." It's a sad, sad day in TC when we can't run wild with the tiny scraps of information we get.

dylanursula

08-31-2006, 07:38 PM

Pictures!
http://www.pvrwire.com/2006/08/31/tivo-series-3-unboxed/

If only I had a Hi-def tv . . .
sigh.

DUDE - where did he get that S3 box from :( I HATE HIM!!!!

HDTiVo

08-31-2006, 08:41 PM

How come there's on mention of HD or High Definition on the packaging?

No, seriously, there was no mention of Series 3 I could see.

And the packaging bears a mix of TiVo logos.

And anything with HD on it seems to be in grey scale.

petew

08-31-2006, 08:45 PM

DUDE - where did he get that S3 box from :( I HATE HIM!!!!

From his comments on pvrwire the photographer is a Best Buy employee who snagged the first one to arrive at the store.

cwoody222

08-31-2006, 08:46 PM

The packaging looks SO non-TiVo and SO Apple-like... they're convincing photos but I wonder... fake?

Dan203

08-31-2006, 08:53 PM

Definitely NOT fake.

Dan

cwoody222

08-31-2006, 08:58 PM

Well, then... where's the official TiVo announcement already!?!?!

dylanursula

08-31-2006, 09:16 PM

cwoody - I am with you - if a BB guy has it in store where is the announcement - could it be available this Sunday ???

Bierboy

08-31-2006, 09:17 PM

Definitely NOT fake.

Dan...and you would know this HOW?

cwoody222

08-31-2006, 09:19 PM

cwoody - I am with you - if a BB guy has it in store where is the announcement - could it be available this Sunday ???

Exactly. I mean, some details came earlier this week from a mysterious BB guy and now another (or the same?) BB guy has the first one ever?

Where is this magical Best Buy?! :D

However, that said, some new graphics / text at tivo.com tend to also bear this new design scheme...

(if this IS all true, I'll be REALLY PISSED that TiVo can steal Apple's design but STILL can't get a Mac version of TiVo ToGo... why don't they just slap us Mac users in the face some more?!?!)

ping

08-31-2006, 09:23 PM

I'm a bit surprised by the "HD" in the modified TiVo logo. Doesn't seem to be in line with their style guide.
http://www.tivo.com/resources/ca_tivologo.asp

bap

08-31-2006, 09:59 PM

I'm a bit surprised by the "HD" in the modified TiVo logo. Doesn't seem to be in line with their style guide.
http://www.tivo.com/resources/ca_tivologo.asp
Not necessarially. Take a look at their Series 2 logos, which is significantly different from the original logos. This is probably just their modification for S3's is all.

VinceA

08-31-2006, 10:01 PM

The unboxing pictures were a great birthday present for me :)

Now I know I was right to tell people to hold off getting me a birthday present...

JPinAZ

08-31-2006, 10:03 PM

How come there's on mention of HD or High Definition on the packaging?

No, seriously, there was no mention of Series 3 I could see.

It's there in the first picture. HD is in the center of the TiVo guy & HD is to the right of the word TiVo.

greg_burns

08-31-2006, 10:04 PM

It's there in the first picture. HD is in the center of the TiVo guy & HD is to the right of the word TiVo.

zoom

HDTiVo

08-31-2006, 10:21 PM

It's there in the first picture. HD is in the center of the TiVo guy & HD is to the right of the word TiVo.
Really? Just the first picture????

jteague

08-31-2006, 10:21 PM

Tivo better hurry up.
The remastered for HD version of the original Star Trek series begins
airing on 09/16.
Coincidence? I don't think so...
:)

"Hollywood, Calif. -- STAR TREK is getting a 21st century makeover. CBS Paramount Domestic Television is releasing digitally remastered episodes of the iconic 1960s sci-fi series, with all new special effects and music, to celebrate the groundbreaking series' 40th anniversary, it was announced today by John Nogawski, president of CBS Paramount Domestic Television.

The new episodes also mark the first time in 16 years that the original STAR TREK series can be seen in broadcast syndication. The episodes will begin airing on the more than 200 stations that own the rights to the weekend broadcast syndication window starting Sept. 16 (check local listings for station and dates). All 79 episodes of the original STAR TREK series will eventually be remastered, with the first batch of episodes chosen from a list of STAR TREK fans' favorite shows.
..."

(you can figure out the link)

tvguide D-O-T com /SLASH News /SLASH Insider

ZombiE

08-31-2006, 10:29 PM

I feel like I'm waiting for my kid to be born, and he was two weeks late!!!!

HDTiVo

08-31-2006, 11:00 PM

Tivo better hurry up.
The remastered for HD version of the original Star Trek series begins
airing on 09/16.
Coincidence? I don't think so...
:)

Don't see nothin' 'bout no HD, but I hear Uhuru is digitally replaced with a digital answering machine. Oh, the irony. :o

SciFi did a junior version of this long ago, without changing stuff.

megazone

09-01-2006, 12:13 AM

So basically you've confirmed that ALL Comcast customers will NOT be able to get TiVo software? Only those that currently have Moto boxes? And that's determined by?... blind luck? inheritance from past companies / territories?That's been known for a long time. The initial Comcast roll-out is only for Motorola. Same for Cox. That's all TiVo has been paid to develop for. They may port to Scientific Atlanta boxes too if the cable MSOs want it, but right now they haven't asked for that.

kdmorse

09-01-2006, 12:31 AM

They may port to Scientific Atlanta boxes too if the cable MSOs want it, but right now they haven't asked for that.

While I could certainly be wrong, I suspect SA's answer to that would "over our dead bodies". Their new owners (Cisco) have specifically expressed the desire to invade the STB arena full force, by developing their own integrated platform which will do everything Tivo does, and much more.

Whether they ever get there, meh - dunno. Nothing I've seen from them so far in the STB arena impresses me, but they could be a real player a few years down the road. I would consider it a fairly safe bet that, given their current goals, they're not going to let Tivo software on their boxes.

But then again, I've been known to loose safe bets all the time.. Only time will tell...

-Ken

Budget_HT

09-01-2006, 12:41 AM

...The DirecTV NDS HD-DVR uses an older hardware design based on 2004 technology--- more specifically, it uses the BCM7038/BCM7411 combo. The BCM7038 formed the basis of the DirecTivo HR10-250 as well. DirecTV took the HR10-250 design, added on a separate BCM7411 MPEG-4 decoder, and doubled the memory. Obviously there are some other changes to the devices on the PCI bus (one ATSC tuner instead of two), but the "heart" of the two boxes is the same.
...
Are you sure about having only one ATSC tuner in the HR20-700 DirecTV HD HDVR?

etemple

09-01-2006, 12:43 AM

(if this IS all true, I'll be REALLY PISSED that TiVo can steal Apple's design but STILL can't get a Mac version of TiVo ToGo... why don't they just slap us Mac users in the face some more?!?!)

+1!!!

megazone

09-01-2006, 01:02 AM

While I could certainly be wrong, I suspect SA's answer to that would "over our dead bodies". Their new owners (Cisco) have specifically expressed the desire to invade the STB arena full force, by developing their own integrated platform which will do everything Tivo does, and much more.The SA platform is already open for 3rd party software - see the Pioneer Passport DVR software. The cable operators really have the leverage here. Cisco/SA wants to sell boxes. If Comcast says "We'll only buy more boxes from you if you let TiVo port to your platform. Otherwise we'll start converting to Motorola" - they'll do it.

Motorola already has an advantage with support from TiVo, Microsoft, and Moxi - and their own homegrown software. There is a push to allow cable MSOs to load what they want to.

bkdtv

09-01-2006, 01:23 AM

Are you sure about having only one ATSC tuner in the HR20-700 DirecTV HD HDVR?
Actually, no, I believe it has two. I was thinking of the Dish Network HD DVR -- Dish Network also uses Broadcom chipsets.

Dmon4u

09-01-2006, 01:24 AM

Don't see nothin' 'bout no HD, but I hear Uhuru is digitally replaced with a digital answering machine. Oh, the irony. :o

SciFi did a junior version of this long ago, without changing stuff.

http://comingsoon.net/news/tvnews.php?id=16298

Last sentence, last paragraph:

"Once stations upgrade and start broadcasting HD signals, the episodes will be all ready for viewers to enjoy in HD."

* for the entire story, check out the Link, above.

===

It's hard to believe that most have not made the 'upgrade' !

bwhaler

09-01-2006, 02:44 AM

You know, the monthly service fee may not be $12.95/month. If TiVo is no longer subsidizing the box and thus, making a profit on each sale, do they really need to charge you $12.95 per month? Just a thought...

-Matt

I hope you are right Matt.

I'll pay 700 bucks to Tivo. Hell, I'll pay $999 for this box.

The thought of a subscription is just too prohibitive in my mind. I know the CEO of Tivo wants to model the cell phone business, but it's not going to work. It works for cell phone companies because it is an oligopoly. Tivo does not have that luxury, regardless of their patent portfolio.

It's why I use the iPod and not one these crappy subscription services. I want to own things, free and clear.

So again Matt, I hope you are right and it's 700 bucks, free and clear. That would be great.

And then I can go back to ignoring all of the TIvo pushed ads--even though I hate them--and mocking the strategy that as a consumer I want advertisements tailored to me.

I just hope Tivo doesn't pull a Sony PS3 and miss the boat with an expensive product which is late and comes with too many headaches.

I'm rooting for ya Tivo. Please don't disappoint

Dan203

09-01-2006, 02:56 AM

...and you would know this HOW?

Because the unit inside is a S3 (based on comparison to pictures from CES and TC Con) and the remote is right as well. So if they are fake then someone from the beta group went througha whole lot of trouble to make a fake box and spoof the packaging.

Not likely. Plus I have a strong hunch that the S3 will be released within the next couple of weeks. Not just because of the info in this thread but other hints as well such as the current rebate ending, CEDIA going one, etc... It all just adds up.

Dan

bkdtv

09-01-2006, 03:12 AM

It's why I use the iPod and not one these crappy subscription services. I want to own things, free and clear.
I love subscription services. :) Rhapsody and Netflix are both excellent.

I pay ~$8/mo for Rhapsody and that gives me unlimited playback on just about every song available via iTunes. I can choose from millions of songs on my PC at home, on my PC at work, in my living room (with Squeezebox), on my PDA (Motorola Q), and in my car (Motorola Q with FM modulator). I could pay a bit more ($15/mo) and download any and all songs to a music player -- except the iPod, which doesn't support PlayForSure --- with no other fees or costs. I can't imagine ever paying $1.00 for a song again -- not when you can legally listen to an unlimited number of new songs every month for just $8.

Essentially, Rhapsody Unlimited is Netflix for music, except it's available almost anytime and anywhere. I'm still waiting for someone to offer a subscription for broadband movie service -- at DVD or HDTV quality. Most movies I'll only watch once or twice, so it makes little sense to buy them. If you are going to pay $15 just to watch a movie once, you might as well see every movie in the local cinema.

I just wish Tivo would add Rhapsody support to their box so I could use it in every room where I have a DVR, without the need for the Squeezebox. And I really hope they can partner with someone to make high-quality broadband movie delivery (not overcompressed SD crap) a reality. The Series3 features 100Mbps ethernet and support for both AVC (H.264) and WM9 HDTV, so the hardware will soon be here to support it.

(Apple's Quicktime 720p trailers run 5-6 Mbps.)

DCIFRTHS

09-01-2006, 03:38 AM

... While I could certainly be wrong, I suspect SA's answer to that would "over our dead bodies". Their new owners (Cisco) have specifically expressed the desire to invade the STB arena full force, by developing their own integrated platform which will do everything Tivo does, and much more. ...

-Ken

If the S3 works even half as well as the S2 boxes, then Cisco is going to have one hell of a fight on their hands. I currently use the SA8300HD only because it records HD. As far the interface goes... well let's just say that calling it in interface is giving it more credit than it deserves...

If they want to differentiate themselves from the pack, Cisco would be better off paying TiVo to create a front end for the SA boxes that has some unique features that other box manufacturers don't have.

ChuckyBox

09-01-2006, 12:45 PM

Bierboy

09-01-2006, 01:04 PM

And for that matter, has anybody else noticed that on the TiVo home page, the 'Did someone say "FREE"?' background is very similar to a couple of the Apple "Aqua Blue" desktop backgrounds that come with OSX?

I'm just sayin'.[halfhearted attempt at ChuckyBox-like sarcasm]
The only thing FREE ('cept for us peons) is the multi-thousand dollar jaunts (that our sub fees underwrite) for the TiVo execs to the Tellurides with snow bunnies in tow. No wonder the S3 isn't out yet :confused:
[/halfhearted attempt at ChuckyBox-like sarcasm]

TiVoMonkey

09-01-2006, 01:18 PM

If they want to differentiate themselves from the pack, Cisco would be better off paying TiVo to create a front end for the SA boxes that has some unique features that other box manufacturers don't have.

Cisco/SA software isn't the only software the will run on these boxes.

Time Warner Cable is using Pioneer Passport software on their SA8000/8300 boxes. And Time Warner will likely be dumping that for their own in house software.

So TiVo can easily create software for these boxes, without Cisco/SA having to ask them. It's the cable companies that will be choosing the software to run on their boxes.

WeKnSmith

09-01-2006, 04:55 PM

cwoody222

09-01-2006, 04:59 PM

Yup. And I guess the geeks (me included) who hang out in a forum dedicated to broadband access doesn't include many "high end" consumers.

HDTiVo

09-01-2006, 05:02 PM

MickeS

09-01-2006, 05:27 PM

ChuckyBox

09-01-2006, 05:29 PM

Yup. And I guess the geeks (me included) who hang out in a forum dedicated to broadband access doesn't include many "high end" consumers.
One possible definition of "high end consumer" is "someone whose staff hangs out in a forum dedicated to broadband access."

mcharkowski

09-01-2006, 05:54 PM

I think the concern over the $799 price is that there is talk, even at that price, of a monthly service fee as well. The $799 may not be a sticking point on its own, remember Replay units cost almost this much when they first arrived. The difference is that the Replay units were a lifetime service. A monthly fee can survive if the cost of the equipment is subsidized, like cell phones currently, or STB fees from cable. But to have the full cost PLUS a monthly service fee will not work for much of anyone.

I think the current state of the market for Blu-Ray and HD-DVD shows us just how much people are willing to pay for Hi-Def accessories. Even early adopters aren't buying these technologies (true, the format war is responsible for much of this) when the players cost in the $750-$1000 range. Many of these "early adopters" have just put every last cent they could possibly afford into a beautiful new television. There is no money left for S3 TiVo's or HD DVD players.

Dan203

09-01-2006, 05:56 PM

While $800 is high, some people react as if it was $8000. I mean, come on... a good vcr used to cost that much, receivers cost that much, new TV's cost WAY more... I don't understand why $800 is seen as so exorbitant.

I'm with you. However I think the issue is that a lot of these people came to TiVo after the S2 units started selling for $100 after rebate. Which, by contrast, makes the $800 S3 very expensive.

Dan

Bierboy

09-01-2006, 05:56 PM

I think the concern over the $799 price is that there is talk, even at that price, of a monthly service fee as well....It's more than just talk; it's reality. You WILL pay a monthly service fee (or annual).

Dan203

09-01-2006, 06:04 PM

I think the concern over the $799 price is that there is talk, even at that price, of a monthly service fee as well. The $799 may not be a sticking point on its own, remember Replay units cost almost this much when they first arrived. The difference is that the Replay units were a lifetime service. A monthly fee can survive if the cost of the equipment is subsidized, like cell phones currently, or STB fees from cable. But to have the full cost PLUS a monthly service fee will not work for much of anyone.

The first TiVo cost over $1,000 AND required service fee. By the time it dropped to $399 in March of 2000 TiVo had over 30,000 subscribers. That means that in just a years time 30,000 people payed somehwere between $699-$1199 for a TiVo with much less technology then the S3.

As for HD-DVD and Blu-Ray, the reason they're seeing lackluster sales is because of the lack of content. With only about 30 movies available in either format, and with those movies costing almost $30 each, it's hard to justify the high cost. If the studios had thousands of titles that cost only $10-$15 each then the players would be flying off the shelves even at their current high prices.

Dan

aztivo

09-01-2006, 06:07 PM

greenstork

09-01-2006, 06:30 PM

The first TiVo cost over $1,000 AND required service fee. By the time it dropped to $399 in March of 2000 TiVo had over 30,000 subscribers. That means that in just a years time 30,000 people payed somehwere between $699-$1199 for a TiVo with much less technology then the S3.

But much more technology than anything else available on the market at that time. Not true today. There are other HD recording options, although they may pale in comparison to the TiVo, some would argue (although not me) that choosing TiVo over a DVR from the Cable Co. is just a matter of taste.

Turtleboy

09-01-2006, 06:44 PM

I love how people act like this unit is $799 (until tivo announces we wont know for sure) and there will be a gun put to them to buy it. If you don't like the price don't buy for those of us that can justify be happy for us. Like almost everything ever sold after a while the price will come down.

thats my opinion and i am sticking to it

+1.

People always think that they are entitled to something.

In fact, the surest way to make the price to plummet is for no one to buy it.

It's amazing how many people don't understand simple economics, or if they do, totally disregard it and don't care b/c they want soemthing for nothing.

Turtleboy

09-01-2006, 06:45 PM

Oh, and I'm going to wait till they get the bugs out and the price comes down a bit.

But do I begrudge Tivo the right to charge whatever they want? Of course not. This is America.

Dan203

09-01-2006, 06:46 PM

But much more technology than anything else available on the market at that time. Not true today. There are other HD recording options, although they may pale in comparison to the TiVo, some would argue (although not me) that choosing TiVo over a DVR from the Cable Co. is just a matter of taste.

ReplayTV was available at the same time, and included the cost of the subscription in the cost of the device, yet TiVo out sold it 2:1.

Dan

DCIFRTHS

09-01-2006, 06:54 PM

... As for HD-DVD and Blu-Ray, the reason they're seeing lackluster sales is because of the lack of content. With only about 30 movies available in either format, and with those movies costing almost $30 each, it's hard to justify the high cost. If the studios had thousands of titles that cost only $10-$15 each then the players would be flying off the shelves even at their current high prices.

Dan

Let's not rule out confused and angry consumers too.

Most people, that aren't geeks are confused by the two competing formats. I am usually an early adopter, but this time I have decided to let the CE manufacturers and the studios pay for their stupidity of not having a unified format. I truly hope they lose a lot of money fighting this battle. Maybe it will teach them to work together for the next big format...

btwyx

09-01-2006, 06:59 PM

I truly hope they lose a lot of money fighting this battle. Maybe it will teach them to work together for the next big format...I really hoped they'd learnt from the last big format. The 2 DVD consortia buried their differences just before launch and went on to be the most sucessful CE launch in history. They just seem to have forgotten this with HD-DVD, I'm not adopting until its settled.

Turtleboy

09-01-2006, 07:01 PM

I really hoped they'd learnt from the last big format. The 2 DVD consortia buried their differences just before launch and went on to be the most sucessful CE launch in history. They just seem to have forgotten this with HD-DVD, I'm not adopting until its settled.

Ditto

SullyND

09-01-2006, 07:11 PM

btwyx

09-01-2006, 07:16 PM

Wasn't there still Divx to compete with when DVD first came out?Divx as in the pay for play DVDs? That was just on top of the DVD standard, way after the realease of DVD.

Here's some history: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DVD#History

ZeoTiVo

09-01-2006, 07:21 PM

ReplayTV was available at the same time, and included the cost of the subscription in the cost of the device, yet TiVo out sold it 2:1.

Dan

Yep and when I was looking at the two before I had drunk the koolaid and trying to figure out whihc to get it came down to the market share as the convicner for me to not worry about Replay so much. I remeber that quite clearly and replay had features listed then that TiVo did not in the form of streaming shows between devices and being able to get shows off the DVR.

I went with the fact there was an active hacking community and could do it myself if TiVo did not come through. Clearly they did comepte on features to me.

SullyND

09-01-2006, 07:22 PM

Divx as in the pay for play DVDs? That was just on top of the DVD standard, way after the realease of DVD.

Nope, DIVX came out roughly at the same time and was NOT the same standard as DVD (It had higher encryption). Some studios originally were only going to release on DIVX and it was seen as a threat to DVD. (It's all in the wiki you linked to too EDIT: Or rather here. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DIVX)).

HiDefGator

09-01-2006, 07:28 PM

I don't think it is reasonable to compare the cost of Tivo when it first came out to Tivo charging $800 for an S3. The problem people have with the $800 price is that I can get a similar box from DTV for $300 or from cable for $10 a month.

I'm sorry but the Tivo software is not THAT much better to justify the price difference. In the end it is just recording TV shows and playing them back.

I'm doubful that Tivo will sell many at that price. Last quarter they only acquired 30,000 net new subscribers and they were practically giving the DT away to do that. And just for reference, 30K was less new subscribers than they added in the same quarter a year ago.

megazone

09-01-2006, 07:32 PM

Why do people keep stating the obvious?

They're not going to sell a lot of Series3 boxes at $800. EVERYONE knows that, TiVo included. But they will sell SOME to early adopters, aka gadget freaks and suckers - like myself.

Then the price will come down a notch, and they'll sell more.

Then the price will come down another notch, and they'll sell even more.

That's how it is with pretty much ever new device that comes out. There is more than just manufacturing costs at play too - there is R&D investment. They'll make a higher return per box at first, then drop that over time. And as manufacturing ramps up, costs come down.

If people think it is too expensive - just don't buy it. Wait. It will cost less in the future.

btwyx

09-01-2006, 07:32 PM

Nope, DIVX came out roughly at the same time From the linked articles:

"The first DVD players and discs were available in November 1996 in Japan, March 1997 in the United States"

"The DIVX rental system was created in 1998 in time for the holiday season"

DIVX was launched when DVD was already quite established.

Edit: I'd also been following the fortunes of DVD since before the joining in 1995, so it may seem a little later to me.

HDTiVo

09-01-2006, 07:42 PM

Why do people keep stating the obvious?

Its all we have left.

bkdtv

09-01-2006, 07:42 PM

I don't think it is reasonable to compare the cost of Tivo when it first came out to Tivo charging $800 for an S3. The problem people have with the $800 price is that I can get a similar box from DTV for $300 or from cable for $10 a month.
The hardware isn't quite comparable. The DirecTV and cable boxes have no networking or computer integration. With a few exceptions, they have no support for external hard drives or capacity expansion. Cable boxes don't have off-air tuners. Cable boxes rarely feature hard drives larger than 160Gb, and most are 120Gb -- less than one-half the capacity of the Series3. Cable boxes don't support AVC (MPEG-4 H.264) and WM9 HDTV. Cable boxes won't act as media centers to let you play back music and video (ultimately, high-def video) stored on your computer.

When you pay for a Series3, you aren't just paying for the superior software. You're also paying for the superior hardware. It's like comparing a 3GHz Mac Pro with OSX to a 1GHz PC running Windows 95. You don't expect them to cost the same thing.

Dan203

09-01-2006, 07:49 PM

mumpower

09-01-2006, 07:50 PM

From the linked articles:

"The first DVD players and discs were available in November 1996 in Japan, March 1997 in the United States"

"The DIVX rental system was created in 1998 in time for the holiday season"

DIVX was launched when DVD was already quite established.

Edit: I'd also been following the fortunes of DVD since before the joining in 1995, so it may seem a little later to me.

I too was following the hardware changes at the time. I was an early adopter by DVD standards and I didn't get one until the spring of 1999. There was not a resolution of which format would win until the fall of 99. Circuit City in particular was pushing DIVX like there was no tomorrow. It's not coincidental that the market exploded only after DIVX had thrown in the towel.

Mainstream consumers are generally unwilling to commit until such a time as a clear cut favorite has emerged. DVD most assuredly had not done that upon DIVX's release despite the fact that anyone with a brain could see expired rental DVDs were doomed to failure.

mumpower

09-01-2006, 07:53 PM

I don't personally feel that $799 is too high of a price (yes, I would prefer to pay less). It is however interesting to see how in this thread on DSL reports almost everyone feels that the price is significantly too high.

http://www.dslreports.com/shownews/77793

I find this particularly alarming. If the $799 MSRP is wrong, TiVo needs to get out in front of this and say so. Since they aren't, this leads me to believe the die is cast. Roughly 30 hours of Hi-def video for that price is just plain silly.

A sitemate of mine suggested using TiVos with massive storage as dummy boxes for file transfer of hi-def. Has it been determined whether that's possible or will the old boxes have no idea how to read the dense HD files?

Dan203

09-01-2006, 07:56 PM

09-01-2006, 07:59 PM

If the $799 MSRP is wrong, TiVo needs to get out in front of this and say so. Since they aren't, this leads me to believe the die is cast.

Since when is a company obligated to respond to rumors?

Bierboy

09-01-2006, 07:59 PM

The old boxes will not be able to read the HD files. However the S3 will have an eSATA port which will allow you to add an external hard drive to increase the storage. If you add a 750GB drive you could increase the HD storage to 120 hours and the SD storage capacity to almost 1200 hours.

DanDan -
I've been surfing today looking for eSATA drives. Seagate has a 300gb and 500gb. Are there some reliable 750s out there?

Bierboy

09-01-2006, 08:00 PM

Since when is a company obligated to respond to rumors?ha....since never :up: touche!!

09-01-2006, 08:03 PM

Don't buy the external drive with 1-year warranty. Get an internal drive with 5-year warranty and an external case.

m_jonis

09-01-2006, 08:11 PM

The hardware isn't quite comparable. The DirecTV and cable boxes have no networking or computer integration. With a few exceptions, they have no support for external hard drives or capacity expansion. Cable boxes don't have off-air tuners. Cable boxes rarely feature hard drives larger than 160Gb, and most are 120Gb -- less than one-half the capacity of the Series3. Cable boxes don't support AVC (MPEG-4 H.264) and WM9 HDTV. Cable boxes won't act as media centers to let you play back music and video (ultimately, high-def video) stored on your computer.

When you pay for a Series3, you aren't just paying for the superior software. You're also paying for the superior hardware. It's like comparing a 3GHz Mac Pro with OSX to a 1GHz PC running Windows 95. You don't expect them to cost the same thing.

Do we know yet for a fact that the S3 will have full MRV and TTG? I thought I'd seen WAY back when (I could be wrong) that they weren't sure if the movie studios/hollywood would allow for MRV for HD content, etc.

greg_burns

09-01-2006, 08:11 PM

mumpower

09-01-2006, 08:13 PM

Since when is a company obligated to respond to rumors?

This isn't 1995 any more. Sony is proof positive of how important it is to get in front of net rumors. They've taken it on the chin repeatedly due to arrogance over web reports.

eric_mcgovern

09-01-2006, 08:15 PM

I'm sorry but the Tivo software is not THAT much better to justify the price difference. In the end it is just recording TV shows and playing them back.

I'm doubful that Tivo will sell many at that price. Last quarter they only acquired 30,000 net new subscribers and they were practically giving the DT away to do that. And just for reference, 30K was less new subscribers than they added in the same quarter a year ago.

HA! The DVR from my cable company CAN'T record shows and play them back..there in lies the problem. I would go for the cable solution even if it worked well as a glorified VCR, but they can't even get that right. I don'think I am very alone in this statement either, judging by the negative posts around the interent regarding most cable company DVR's.

You have to keep in mind that a good chunk of people are waiting for the High Def TiVo, so it doesn't surprise me that their new subs went down.

mumpower

09-01-2006, 08:15 PM

Dan -
I've been surfing today looking for eSATA drives. Seagate has a 300gb and 500gb. Are there some reliable 750s out there?

Outpost has one for $330 today.

http://shop1.outpost.com/product/4924331

bkdtv

09-01-2006, 08:15 PM

jonis,

MRV for cable content is questionable. There's nothing preventing MRV for content from the broadcast networks, however, which represents 80+% of primetime viewing. Tivo's MRV is certified for broadcast network content.

Still unknown whether any form of MRV will be supported when the Series3 ships in 2-3 weeks, but Tivo has said they are working on it.

mumpower

09-01-2006, 08:16 PM

The old boxes will not be able to read the HD files. However the S3 will have an eSATA port which will allow you to add an external hard drive to increase the storage. If you add a 750GB drive you could increase the HD storage to 120 hours and the SD storage capacity to almost 1200 hours.

Dan

Fascinating, thanks. Is 120 hours of HD the amount with a single 750GB hard drive or is that including the 250GB it comes with? In other words, if there are dual 750GB drives put in, what's the max HD storage space at the moment?

bkdtv

09-01-2006, 08:19 PM

Outpost has one for $330 today.

http://shop1.outpost.com/product/4924331
I think the 500Gb Western Digital RE2 WD5000YS is the drive to get. Storagereview tested 500Gb drives and found it to be 1) the fastest or second fastest in most tests, 2) by far the quietest, 3) by far the coolest running, and 4) by far the cheapest. It costs ~$190.

http://www.storagereview.com/articles/200607/500_1.html

HDTV from HBO consumes around 5.0-6.0Gb per hour, while maximum-quality OTA HDTV consumes 8.6Gb per hour.

bkdtv

09-01-2006, 08:26 PM

there are dual 750GB drives put in, what's the max HD storage space at the moment?
Dual 750Gb drives would give you somewhere between 175 and 285 hours of HDTV capacity, depending on the channel and content.

mumpower

09-01-2006, 08:37 PM

Why is over the air HD so much larger in terms of file size?

ah30k

09-01-2006, 08:42 PM

Has anyone found an external RAID array the works with eSata? I would rather pay more for the RAID and save $$$ on the drives. 3x400GB (mirrored) vs. 1 750GB. Plus the protection mirroring offers.

I understand it is not even known if we can use non blessed drives. Just want to know what's our options are.
The problem is that the 'connection to the host' has to be sata. There are plenty of raid controllers that use sata drives, but the host connection is usually pci or ethernet. I did some preliminary hunting and couldn't find a raid controller that connects to the host via sata. Might be a good opportunity for a company.

btwyx

09-01-2006, 08:49 PM

Why is over the air HD so much larger in terms of file size?HD compared to SD or OTA compared to not OTA?

HD compared to SD is because HD has much more information in it, that's why its HD.

OTA HD compared to say satellite HD, because the Satellite companies muck with the signal to make it smaller (and thus cheaper to broadcast) which reduces quality.

OTA HD is about the best signal available to you, and quality and size vary inversely.

moyekj

09-01-2006, 08:53 PM

Why is over the air HD so much larger in terms of file size? Larger compared to what? If it's compared to D* it's because they downrez (HDLite). However, many cable companies are simply passing along the OTA HD locals without downrezing or doing much bit-rate shaping. In my Cox OC market the network channel OTA HD and the Cox feeds have virtually identical bit rates.

Even for OTA HD broadcasts can vary largely in size. One big difference is 720p (used by ABC, FOX, ESPN among others) vs 1080i - 1080i takes more bandwidth than 720p. The difference is quite striking: 5-6 GB/hour for 720p vs 8-9 GB/hour for 1080i. That's why statements like 30 hours of HD recording space for a 250GB drive don't really make any sense - it depends largely on what you are recording.

greg_burns

09-01-2006, 08:55 PM

The problem is that the 'connection to the host' has to be sata. There are plenty of raid controllers that use sata drives, but the host connection is usually pci or ethernet. I did some preliminary hunting and couldn't find a raid controller that connects to the host via sata. Might be a good opportunity for a company.

I'm thinking something like this. But more drives.

http://www.usbgear.com/SV-2RSA1.html

mumpower

09-01-2006, 09:00 PM

OTA HD compared to say satellite HD, because the Satellite companies muck with the signal to make it smaller (and thus cheaper to broadcast) which reduces quality.

I had no idea, thanks.

mumpower

09-01-2006, 09:03 PM

Larger compared to what?

I was asking for clarification since there was such an enormous potential difference in storage space given in an earlier reply. (over 100 hours).

Even for OTA HD broadcasts can vary largely in size. One big difference is 720p (used by ABC, FOX, ESPN among others) vs 1080i - 1080i takes more bandwidth than 720p. The difference is quite striking: 5-6 GB/hour for 720p vs 8-9 GB/hour for 1080i. That's why statements like 30 hours of HD recording space for a 250GB drive don't really make any sense - it depends largely on what you are recording.

Are there any file size results stated for 1080p yet?

bkdtv

09-01-2006, 09:13 PM

Are there any file size results stated for 1080p yet?
There aren't any broadcast or cable channels that use 1080p30 video.

A lot of film-source content is 1080p/24 and delivered with repeat flags as 1080i60. If you have a recent 1080p television, it can reconstruct the 1080p image.

bkdtv

09-01-2006, 09:21 PM

I had no idea, thanks.
As one example, consider that HDnet is originally distributed with ~18.2Mbps 1920x1080 video. DirecTV downconverts this to 1280x1080i and filters out high frequency information (picture detail) so they can fit this channel in about 10-12Mbps. On some cable providers, you get the full / original ~18.2Mbps video signal, and on some other cable providers, you may get a slightly degraded signal (14-16Mbs).

Even on one channel, the storage requirements can vary significantly by the content being shown. Film-sourced content tends to require less bandwidth than video-sourced content, and content with fast motion (like sports) requires the most bandwidth of all. Whenever you see blurring or pixelization with motion on a high-def sports broadcast, that's generally because the provider isn't dedicating sufficient bandwidth to the channel.

The space required for HDTV depends not only on the channel and its content, but also on your particular provider, how much bandwidth they have, and how many channels they are trying to squeeze on their system.

09-01-2006, 09:35 PM

I'm thinking something like this. But more drives.

http://www.usbgear.com/SV-2RSA1.html

http://www.lacie.com/products/range.htm?id=10033

HiDefGator

09-01-2006, 11:22 PM

You have to keep in mind that a good chunk of people are waiting for the High Def TiVo, so it doesn't surprise me that their new subs went down.

Let me get this right. You believe that there are tens of thousands of people out there that have no Tivo today, have never had a Tivo, and are waiting for the S3 before buying their first Tivo DVR? These are the same people that aren't buying the DT today even though it is almost free?

I'm having trouble believing that is true. The numbers seem to suggest that for the most part existing Tivo owners are buying most of the DT's being sold. And that the majority of the S3 buyers will also be existing Tivo owners.

kdmorse

09-01-2006, 11:32 PM

Don't forget about all us S1/S2 owners who have no need for a DT box at all, even if it's low cost. Why on earth would we replace our Lifetime Subbed S2's with Monthly DT's while we're waiting for the S3 which is right around the corner?

But we certainly want a S3 as it adds something the DT box doesn't - HD.

I think you're underestimating the number of folks in that situation - although there probably aren't tens of thousands of us.

-Ken

DCIFRTHS

09-01-2006, 11:41 PM

Who cares! Divx fell flat on it's face within months of launch. The two competing HD disks both seem to be fairly healthy, which means we're looking at more of a DVD-R vs DVD+R type war where both formats are around for the long haul and consumers have to be careful that they buy the right format for their player unless they have a dual format machine. That sucks because there will inevitably be some titles that are "exclusvie" to one format or the other, and consumers will get screwed because of it.

Dan

That's exactly why I am not buying into either format. Let the CE companies spend their dollars fighting this fight. One of the formats needs to die, or there has to be a marriage of the two for success. SACD or DVD Audio anyone?

DCIFRTHS

09-02-2006, 12:16 AM

I too was following the hardware changes at the time. I was an early adopter by DVD standards and I didn't get one until the spring of 1999. There was not a resolution of which format would win until the fall of 99. Circuit City in particular was pushing DIVX like there was no tomorrow. It's not coincidental that the market exploded only after DIVX had thrown in the towel.

Mainstream consumers are generally unwilling to commit until such a time as a clear cut favorite has emerged. DVD most assuredly had not done that upon DIVX's release despite the fact that anyone with a brain could see expired rental DVDs were doomed to failure.

I don't remember the dates, but you are correct in your statements. I got a DVD player when one of the few titles available was Batman :cool: People at work thought it was another crazy toy I purchased, and not one of them knew what DVD was. My good friend later told me he thought I was nuts when I first told him of DVD (movies on a CD as he put it).

One of the biggest issues with DIVX was the privacy concerns - it had to call in to authorize the disk for viewing. They didn't have to expire as you could "purchase" unlimited viewings of a disk. It was tied to that particular player though.

I boycotted CC until they dropped DIVX. A small blow to CC, but very a gratifying decision for me :) In fact, I think I'm the one that dealt the death blow to DIVX... :D ;)

eric_mcgovern

09-02-2006, 12:57 AM

Let me get this right. You believe that there are tens of thousands of people out there that have no Tivo today, have never had a Tivo, and are waiting for the S3 before buying their first Tivo DVR? These are the same people that aren't buying the DT today even though it is almost free?

I'm having trouble believing that is true. The numbers seem to suggest that for the most part existing Tivo owners are buying most of the DT's being sold. And that the majority of the S3 buyers will also be existing Tivo owners.

While this is by no means scientific...I know at least 10 people who haven't bought a TiVo yet, because they are waiting for the HD version. While I haven't run a poll as to whether or not they will run out the first day it is on store shelves, they won't be too far behind me (who will get it the second I can)

So yes, you have it right, I believe that.

sonicboom

09-02-2006, 01:50 AM

While this is by no means scientific...I know at least 10 people who haven't bought a TiVo yet, because they are waiting for the HD version.

Make me number 11 (even though you don't know me).

Hi folks... I've been waiting for an HD tivo cable solution for 3+ years. I'm ecstatic knowing its only a matter of days away. I'm going to buy one the moment its released regardless of the cost. I think Tivo earned their R&D dollars on this one.

I used to own a Sony SVR-2000 Tivo (with lifetime) when it first came out. I loved that machine. I sold it just prior to moving across country, thinking by the time I got settled in my new digs, the HD tivo would be out (afterall Directivo had it). That was over 3 years ago. Boy was I ever wrong.

I bought a couple ReplayTv systems to hold me over. They had video streaming before tivo, good computer integration (DVArchive), and commercial skip. A high wow factor for the time, but the Tivo interface couldn't be beat... and I (and my wife) always missed that.

One of my Replays kicked the bucket, and the other is starting to act-up, so it was time to check-in on what Tivo was up to. I was pleasently surprised to learn the series 3 is right around the corner.

Finally, the day is almost here. I've read most of the recent Series 3 posts, and I can't wait for this thing to ship so I can return to TivoLand.

I have comcast in my area, and am aware of the tivo support coming for the motorola platform. While it probably makes more financial sense for me to go with the comcast tivo, I don't care. I want a *real* tivo box (the one I've been waiting for), with 100% tivo support and greater storage capacity.

The only bummer is the monthly subscription. The intial cost of the unit is one thing, but monthly service payments are a drag.

jeffrypennock

09-02-2006, 03:54 PM

I feel like I'm waiting for my kid to be born, and he was two weeks late!!!!

I hear that!

ZeoTiVo

09-02-2006, 04:46 PM

I boycotted CC until they dropped DIVX. A small blow to CC, but very a gratifying decision for me :) In fact, I think I'm the one that dealt the death blow to DIVX... :D ;)

actually I was doing IT support work for the group at the CD/DVD manufacture CC was using. The engineers were going gang busters for a while but My manager and I agreed to be slow in actually committing the capital budget for that project. We bought some of the IT support hardware but specced it for a different project we had both of us assuming it would die on the vine. The engineers became "somewhat" frustrated with me and the pace of IT support. ;) and we happily soon enough pulled the hardware from storage for the other warehouse automation project and had ourselves a very good budget control for the year.

I did help doom DiVX as it so rightly and obviously deserved.

jmace57

09-02-2006, 04:51 PM

I plan to be a -late adaptor- to the S3.

;)

Price will have to come way down before I trade-in my free SA 8300HD box.

Exactly - me too. I was an early adopter of the HMO features - never again. I'll wait for a year or so...

Jim

MickeS

09-02-2006, 04:56 PM

The reason HD disc players aren't flying out of the stores have IMO little to do with the format war or lack of titles, or even price.

It has to do with the fact that there is no significant benefit to HD versus DVD. The difference between VHS and DVD was huge - portability, ease of use, features and versatility. The quality was better too, but it was secondary, IMO - you still saw people hook up their DVD players using composite connections and L/R audio, which provided only minor improvements in that area.

HD has better sound and picture - that's it. And it's not enough to get people excited. Just like DVD-Audio and SACD has failed to reach mainstream status, so will HD disc players... at least until they cost the same as DVD players, and people get them because DVD-players are gone.

TexasAg

09-02-2006, 05:10 PM

HD has better sound and picture - that's it.

What more could I ask for in terms of watching movies?? :)

bkdtv

09-02-2006, 05:35 PM

It has to do with the fact that there is no significant benefit to HD versus DVD. The difference between VHS and DVD was huge - portability, ease of use, features and versatility. The quality was better too, but it was secondary, IMO - you still saw people hook up their DVD players using composite connections and L/R audio, which provided only minor improvements in that area.
The quality improvement with HD-DVD over DVD is substantial if you have a >50" display with 1080p resolution. The larger the display, the more substantial the difference. In addition, the interactivity features supported by HD-DVD (and in future Blu-ray players) are light years ahead of what you get on DVD.

The prices and dimensions for large screen displays continue to fall. Within a few years, you'll be able to put hang a 60" 1080p display on your wall for about $1000. Of course HDTV looks much better on a large screen, but you've also got to consider that SD channels can look very bad when blown up on large screen. You aren't comparing good versus great; rather you're comparing bad to great, and between those two options, the consumer's choice is obvious.

ZeoTiVo

09-02-2006, 05:54 PM

The quality improvement with HD-DVD over DVD is substantial

well that is not the argument being made. And I can see the argument that HD-DVD or Blu Ray are not going to have mass appeal just because of even substantialy better quality. It is the selling point to early adopters always looking for the best but I have a wife who listens to our wireless speakers with only one of them turned on. I have experimented and recorded DR Phil and stuff at various quality levels from low to best - she sees no difference to remark of. I know to you and me that sounds absurd but there are many out there like that. The mass market is just not all about the Highest Definition.