ABC upfronts

[Rob Helmerichs]

http://www.thefutoncritic.com/pr.aspx?id=20060516abc01

[scottykempf]

Ok, it's official. Lost is the only show that I am watching on ABC anymore.

[IndyTom]

This means Sons and Daughters has been officially axed. :mad:

[LoadStar]

ABC looks like they have an amazingly DULL season. None of the dramas have any sort of hook that would interest me.

[Lee L]

Come on CW, pick up Invasion!

[jlb]

It will be interesting to minitor Calista Flockhart's return to TV. I hope her show does well....Heck, it has Ron Rifkin in it, so it has to be ok, right?

[cheesesteak]

Lokks like I'm going from watching 2 ABC shows this season - Lost & Invasion - to just one - Lost.

[ILoveCats&Tivo]

:( In Justice isn't there. I really liked that. Dam ABC anyway :down:

[timr_42]

This is why I don't understand the American audience. They don't watch shows like Invasion and In Justice causing them to be cancelled, but Supernanny?????

I think I'm with Scotty, Lost is the only ABC show that I watch.

Betty the Ugly? what is the over/under on how long that lasts? Even the title makes me wonder, 2 or 3 episodes?

[WinBear]

Hmm, Taye Diggs in a reimagined Groundhog Day sounds promising if the writing is upto snuff. I hope they solve the mystery at the end of the year and have "a new day dawn" for each season.

Men In Trees would probably be better without Anne Heche, but we'll see.

I like the cast of The Nine, but not so much the premise. Hmm, that's sort of how I felt about Criminal Minds this year and I never bothered to watch one.

Six Degrees sounds intriguing.

I'll probably check out Traveler.

"Set For the Rest of Your Life" might be an interesting game show worth checking out.

[7thton]

Ditto for me....Lost is the only ABC show I'll be watching.

Day Break has potential. The Nine looks promising. I'll try Traveler.

Six Degrees probably looks like the best of the bunch, coming from J.J. Abrams.

[dtle]

Wow...Grey's Anatomy is going up against ER and Without a Trace.

And my guily pleasure, What About Brian, is back.

[gchance]

This quote's interesting:

"Our success has been driven by great storytelling and memorable characters that audiences have fallen in love with," said Mr. McPherson.

Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, Dancing With Stars, The Bachelor, Supernanny, America's Funniest Home Videos, American Inventor, Wife Swap.

Great storytelling & memorable characters.

Greg

[7thton]

This quote's interesting:



Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, Dancing With Stars, The Bachelor, Supernanny, America's Funniest Home Videos, American Inventor, Wife Swap.

Great storytelling & memorable characters.

Greg
:up:

[Lori]

Wow...Grey's Anatomy is going up against ER and Without a Trace.

And my guily pleasure, What About Brian, is back.

Actually, it's not against ER, it's against the new Sorkin/Schlamme show "Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip".

Should be interesting. :)

[marksman]

I got to say I might be able to remove ABC from my program guide next year.

I don't see anything I might watch at this point. What is the deal with all these dramas taking these very narrow and implausible premises and trying to make them into a series. I understand the lunacy that is Prison Break (http://aeiouy.us/11-2005/prison-give-me-a-break/), and even the far-fetched premise of 24 is tough to negotiate... But the reality is taking hostage standoffs and turning them into a entire series or getting someone in a narrow situation, just seems like you are really painting yourself in the corner, that most writers will never be able to get of.... Heck even Earl has a very thin and narrow premise for its show.

As for the comedies, I will probably check a few out, but it is really hard to tell if a comedy is going to be any good based on a paragraph description, pretty much every comedy sounds absolutely horrible distilled down to 3 sentences.

[mwhip]

Betty the Ugly is interesting because it is a Colombian novella that Salma Hayek bought the rights to and produces the American version.

All the networks are very interested to see if America is ready for a Novella. I mean Desperate Housewives is pretty darn close.

[Graymalkin]

Thank God I have four TiVos, so I can get Grey's, Studio 60, and CSI.

[mwhip]

Oh and Grey's to Thursday? It needs to be in the 10 PM slot and probably needs to be on Monday night but the Grey's v. CSI is going to be awesome to watch. Now if the rumors are true and FOX is planning on putting the AI results show on Thursday at 9 PM we could have a Grey's v. CSI v. AI battle royal.

[thefutoncritic]

But the reality is taking hostage standoffs and turning them into a entire series or getting someone in a narrow situation, just seems like you are really painting yourself in the corner, that most writers will never be able to get of....

Having seen "The Nine," I can assure you it's not a "24"-esque look at a 52-hour hostage crisis. It's more about the characters lives after said event (pieces of which will be shown over the course of the series in flashbacks) - how it changes them (some for the better, some of the worse) and how they've become bonded because of it.

As for "Traveler" (which I've also been lucky enough to see), there's definitely plenty of "how are they going to sustain this over several seasons" moments - but the show is too fun, too exciting and too good to worry about such things. Just enjoy the ride.

[mwhip]

Having seen "The Nine," I can assure you it's not a "24"-esque look at a 52-hour hostage crisis. It's more about the characters lives after said event (pieces of which will be shown over the course of the series in flashbacks) - how it changes them (some for the better, some of the worse) and how they've become bonded because of it.

As for "Traveler" (which I've also been lucky enough to see), there's definitely plenty of "how are they going to sustain this over several seasons" moments - but the show is too fun, too exciting and too good to worry about such things. Just enjoy the ride.


Thanks I was just looking at your site and so far you are doing a hell of a job. :up: :up: :up:

Now if you see Kristin Veitch tell her the E! message boards are down. :D

[Jesda]

Wow, Calista Flockhart. I kind of forgot she existed until last week (I got super bored and got season 1 of Ally McBeal).

[cwoody222]

Almost all of their dramas scream "high concept" to me.

"Brothers & Sisters" - told thru the eyes of Calista and how all the characters lives change one fateful day

"Day Break" - he relives the same day over and over thru the whole season

"The Nine" - where we discover, via flashbacks, what happened to all the characters to make them who they are today and how they connect

"Six Degrees" - sounds much like The Nine in which we discover how all these seemingly unconnected people actually affect each other

"Traveler" - from the ABC Press Release... "Flashing back to the prior two years to illustrate the formation of this friendship and Will's insidious behavior..."

Every one sounds "gimmicky" to me. They still sound interesting, but jeez...

[ScottE22]

Wow...Grey's Anatomy is going up against ER and Without a Trace.

And my guily pleasure, What About Brian, is back.

My wife will be thrilled. And I don't mind the eye candy...

;)

[cwoody222]

I guess I have to watch those 5 "What About Brian"s that I recorded and saved now...

[aindik]

Is the casting of
Kim Raver
In "The Nine" a spoiler for next week's 24?

[GerryGag]

Is the casting of
Kim Raver
In "The Nine" a spoiler for next week's 24?
I thought the SAME EXACT thing. I had seen this person mentioned WEEKS ago as starring in a new show and thought "uh-oh". Same exact reaction I had last year when I read about Dennis Haysbert in The Unit (and look how that turned out!)

[Inundated]

Come on CW, pick up Invasion!

Don't hold your breath on that one...

[Dmon4u]

For those that do not want to check the Link, above:

Monday
8:00 p.m. Wife Swap
9:00 p.m. The Bachelor/Supernanny
10:00 p.m. What About Brian

Tuesday
8:00 p.m. Dancing With the Stars (new day) / SET FOR THE REST OF YOUR LIFE
9:00 p.m. LET’S ROB…
9:30 p.m. HELP ME HELP YOU
10:00 p.m. Boston Legal

Wednesday
8:00 p.m. Dancing With the Stars (new day) / George Lopez and According to Jim (new day)
9:00 p.m. Lost
10:00 p.m. THE NINE

Thursday
8:00 p.m. BIG DAY
8:30 p.m. NOTES FROM THE UNDERBELLY
9:00 p.m. Grey’s Anatomy (new day and time)
10:00 p.m. SIX DEGREES

Friday
8:00 p.m. BETTY THE UGLY
9:00 p.m. MEN IN TREES
10:00 p.m. 20/20

Saturday
8:00 p.m. ABC SATURDAY NIGHT COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Sunday
7:00 p.m. America’s Funniest Home Videos
8:00 p.m. Extreme Makeover: Home Edition
9:00 p.m. Desperate Housewives
10:00 p.m. BROTHERS & SISTERS

=

I'm finding it hard to consider watching more than one show on any particular night, according to this schedule.

[That Don Guy]

Saturday
8:00 p.m. ABC SATURDAY NIGHT COLLEGE FOOTBALL
So what does ABC put here after December 2?

-- Don

[cwoody222]

Saturday night?

Movies and/or Specials and/or Drama Reruns

[Bai Shen]

Having seen "The Nine," I can assure you it's not a "24"-esque look at a 52-hour hostage crisis. It's more about the characters lives after said event (pieces of which will be shown over the course of the series in flashbacks) - how it changes them (some for the better, some of the worse) and how they've become bonded because of it.

As for "Traveler" (which I've also been lucky enough to see), there's definitely plenty of "how are they going to sustain this over several seasons" moments - but the show is too fun, too exciting and too good to worry about such things. Just enjoy the ride.

Traveler will probably be the only one I'll watch, although The Nine was vaguely interesting as well.

[MikeMar]

Hope American Inventor isn't a sob story again next year. I really enjoyed the show w/ the parts that weren't crying.

[Z-Todd]

What a horrible schedule. Other than Lost, is there anything worth watching? I highly doubt it.

[DevdogAZ]

I guess I have to watch those 5 "What About Brian"s that I recorded and saved now...
Me too.

I'm really bummed about the Grey's move to Thursday because I had extremely high hopes for Studio 60 and this is going to make it very hard for that show to succeed.

[cmontyburns]

I'm really bummed about the Grey's move to Thursday because I had extremely high hopes for Studio 60 and this is going to make it very hard for that show to succeed.

Well, it was already going to be up against CSI, which isn't exactly a lightweight, either. I'm wondering if Studio 60 is actually in a bit of trouble. Some of the critic blogs filed from the NBC upfronts were not exactly complimentary about what they saw of the show. And Matthew Perry has apparently been advising everyone to dial down their expectations. From Virginia Heffernan's blog (http://www.nytimes.com/ref/arts/television/tv-upfronts.html) on NYTimes.com:

Oh, P.S.: Matthew Perry told the audience that expectations for "Studio 60" were too high. He begged advertisers not to get their hopes up, and instead see the Sorkin drama as "the little show that could."

[Paul_PDX]

"Big Day" -- ABC doesn't even mention they stole this from the BBC's "The Worst Week of My Life". It was hillarious but 30 minutes without commercials won't translate into tamed down 18 here in the states.

[thefutoncritic]

"Big Day" -- ABC doesn't even mention they stole this from the BBC's "The Worst Week of My Life". It was hillarious but 30 minutes without commercials won't translate into tamed down 18 here in the states.

FOX did that already - a pilot was shot based on the BBC show that isn't expected to get picked up.

http://www.thefutoncritic.com/devwatch.aspx?id=worst_week_of_my_life

[etemple]

Wow...Grey's Anatomy is going up against ER and Without a Trace.

And my guily pleasure, What About Brian, is back.

Grey's looks to be on at 9, not 10, so it will be going up against CSI (and possibly the OC if it stays in the same slot).

I'm kinda curious about the Calista FLockhart show since it's got Ron Rifkin and some of the ALIAS crew on board . . .

[viperny]

their lineup looks horrible, i heard that if they dont do well next season that the CEO is out

[drew2k]

They already cancelled Invasion, and now Freddie too? Any idea why Freddie was cancelled?

Other than Lost and Desperate Housewives, there's no reason for me to tune in ABC any more. Not one of the new shows looks interesting to me.

[cmontyburns]

Incidentally, has anyone noticed ABC's plans for Lost? Seven straight episodes to air in the fall, followed by a thirteen week break, followed by the remaining fifteen episodes, straight. During the break, ABC will run Day Break.

Will this plan take care of threads complaining about Lost repeats, or incite threads wondering where the heck Lost went?

[DevdogAZ]

Incidentally, has anyone noticed ABC's plans for Lost? Seven straight episodes to air in the fall, followed by a thirteen week break, followed by the remaining fifteen episodes, straight. During the break, ABC will run Day Break.

Will this plan take care of threads complaining about Lost repeats, or incite threads wondering where the heck Lost went?
Yes, the latter will take the place of the former.

Congrats on the impending YAMM.

[Bierboy]

Incidentally, has anyone noticed ABC's plans for Lost? Seven straight episodes to air in the fall, followed by a thirteen week break, followed by the remaining fifteen episodes, straight. During the break, ABC will run Day Break.

Will this plan take care of threads complaining about Lost repeats, or incite threads wondering where the heck Lost went?Gag....what a bunch of programming morons. I'd rather have it on periodically then take such a long break. Maybe I'm in the minority there, but that's my opinion.

[aindik]

Incidentally, has anyone noticed ABC's plans for Lost? Seven straight episodes to air in the fall, followed by a thirteen week break, followed by the remaining fifteen episodes, straight. During the break, ABC will run Day Break.

Will this plan take care of threads complaining about Lost repeats, or incite threads wondering where the heck Lost went?

That seems silly. I like the idea of not running reruns, and consolidating the show to run all in a row, but why not just run it all 22 weeks in a row, starting in September and ending in February. That way, it wouldn't have to go head to head against American Idol, except for a month.

[cwoody222]

I had read that ABC was considering such plans. But I had heard THREE "chunks" of LOST seperated by breaks of 7-8 weeks. That would be better, IMHO.

A 13 week break and only 7 upfront is bad :(

[drew2k]

I guess everyone should think of Lost as having two-part seasons, just like Stargate shows on the Sci-Fi channel. ABC is just playing copy-cat: Lost Part 1 in autumn, and Part 2 in spring.

I think I won't mind this too much. I'd much rather have a string of uninterrupted new shows to watch, versus the recap epsidoes interspersed with repeats and the occasional new show, so this works for me.

[marksman]

Incidentally, has anyone noticed ABC's plans for Lost? Seven straight episodes to air in the fall, followed by a thirteen week break, followed by the remaining fifteen episodes, straight. During the break, ABC will run Day Break.

Will this plan take care of threads complaining about Lost repeats, or incite threads wondering where the heck Lost went?

As long as they explain what is going on it will be much less of an issue. The way the show is eroding viewers this year, I would think this would work out well as long as they let people know.

The current method is clearly failing in a big way.

[smak]

Incidentally, has anyone noticed ABC's plans for Lost? Seven straight episodes to air in the fall, followed by a thirteen week break, followed by the remaining fifteen episodes, straight. During the break, ABC will run Day Break.

Will this plan take care of threads complaining about Lost repeats, or incite threads wondering where the heck Lost went?

Can you post the link to that, because to me it doesn't make sense, and doesn't fit in with sweeps.

The 3 chunks makes more sense.

7 weeks from October through November sweeps.

Off from Thanksgiving through New Years, about 7 weeks.

7-8 weeks, from January through Feb Sweeps.

Off March.

7-8 weeks, April through May sweeps.

-smak-

[TomK]

Primetime college football? Have the networks given up on being creative?

[cmontyburns]

Can you post the link to that, because to me it doesn't make sense, and doesn't fit in with sweeps.

I first read it on EW's popwatch blog, here. (http://popwatch.ew.com/popwatch/2006/05/lost_biggest_tw.html) News item here (http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/la-et-upfronts17may17,1,132614.story).

[DevdogAZ]

Primetime college football? Have the networks given up on being creative?
None of the networks have had anything creative on Saturday nights for several years. At least ABC is actually putting something new on there, as opposed to the other networks that just air repeats and movies.

[WinBear]

I think it is a good idea to try to bring back some elements of "appointment TV" and the "uninterrupted run" is as good a place to start as any. Our broadcast schedule, holiday breaks and sweeps periods aren't all that conducive to airing a full 20+ episode order contiguously.

[Bierboy]

...why not just run it all 22 weeks in a row, starting in September and ending in February... Because they'd miss the all-important spring sweeps.

[newsposter]

Hope American Inventor isn't a sob story again next year. I really enjoyed the show w/ the parts that weren't crying.

ur joking..it's ABC! I wonder if they would just make ABC reality channel what would happen?

and as stated a few posts up, I dont understand America either. Assuming the stats are right, I'm glad i'm not a majority to be honest. Some of the crap that "America watches" just would be embarrassing to admit if i was in another country :) Thinks lik CiC may not be perfect, but that vs supernanny? I guess America doesn't want to do any real thinking

[newsposter]

Because they'd miss the all-important spring sweeps.

someone tried explaining sweeps before but i still dont get it. I think there are (4) months of them right? I think I know feb/may/nov for sure.

Ok so if there are 4 months, that's 4 x 4 eps a month = 16 eps that ad dollars are based on. Assume 22 eps a season so there are 8 that are in non sweeps months. So do they pay the same high ad $ for even the eps that are repeated the "other 30" weeks of the year?

Also, to all you supporters that say the nielsens are accurate statistically...why in the world do they need 16 eps out of 22 to base the ad prices? 16/22 = more than 70% sample!!!!!! Wouldn't you only really need about 3-4 eps to gauge 22? And even the networks have to admit the repeats wont get as much watching as the first runs.

help me understand

[aindik]

Because they'd miss the all-important spring sweeps.

Yeah, like I said. They get to avoid having it lose to American Idol during the May sweeps. ;)

[joeinma]

So what does ABC put here after December 2?

-- Don

Like every other network on Saturday nights, either reruns or movies.

[joeinma]

This is why I don't understand the American audience. They don't watch shows like Invasion and In Justice causing them to be cancelled, but Supernanny?????

I am not sure if more people watch SuperNanny over Invasion or In Justice...but the fact is reality shows don't cost the networks much money while an hour drama like Invasion costs a lot more to produce between cast costs, etc. Therefore, a network will keep a SuperNanny that gets a 3.0 rating while dumping a regular show that is getting say a 4.0 rating.

The problem with In Justice is that: A - It was a short season run and B - It's was on Friday nights which is a kiss of death almost as bad as Saturday nights because there are less viewers on weekend nights, especially the coveted 18-35 age group.

[newsposter]

valid point about profitability. That's why you have the junk you have on Fuse at 2am...like pants off dance off....cant cost more than I make a week to have someone dance and look like an idiot for 3 minutes. So even if you got a tiny amount of $ for commercials, it could be potentially a few hundred percent profit.

I guess that's why some of these shows do stay on. new actors just dying to get on screen at any cost. Union labor is probably fixed cost for most sit com shows so that's moot. so if you get some new actors, and convince advertisers they are the next friends, you can make a hefty profit.

Since this is obviously a truth, I wonder why we dont see profitability numbers instead of ratings numbers? I do see futon having ad costs listed. Seems it would make more sense to say that Lost makes 200% profit a year or something like that. Of course they all have their own little world figured out already so they wouldnt care about making it easier for me

Speaking of profits, how is it profitable to spent 1 million on ads for 25 cent gum? That's 4 mil units breakeven!

[DevdogAZ]

Speaking of profits, how is it profitable to spent 1 million on ads for 25 cent gum? That's 4 mil units breakeven!
Volume, my friend, volume.

[forecheck]

Can you post the link to that, because to me it doesn't make sense, and doesn't fit in with sweeps.

The 3 chunks makes more sense.

7 weeks from October through November sweeps.

Off from Thanksgiving through New Years, about 7 weeks.

7-8 weeks, from January through Feb Sweeps.

Off March.

7-8 weeks, April through May sweeps.

-smak-

I agree, 3 chunks make more sense, but I am guessing they will just give January off and start the first week of the Feb sweeps, and run it straight through the end of the May sweeps.

[smak]

someone tried explaining sweeps before but i still dont get it. I think there are (4) months of them right? I think I know feb/may/nov for sure.

Ok so if there are 4 months, that's 4 x 4 eps a month = 16 eps that ad dollars are based on. Assume 22 eps a season so there are 8 that are in non sweeps months. So do they pay the same high ad $ for even the eps that are repeated the "other 30" weeks of the year?

Also, to all you supporters that say the nielsens are accurate statistically...why in the world do they need 16 eps out of 22 to base the ad prices? 16/22 = more than 70% sample!!!!!! Wouldn't you only really need about 3-4 eps to gauge 22? And even the networks have to admit the repeats wont get as much watching as the first runs.

help me understand

Either there is no August sweeps, or they don't really matter since there isn't much original programming then.

So you have 3 sweeps periods.

Now, I perfectly understand why they have them for regular shows, because it's checking the ratings 3 times a year to adjust advertising rates.

What i've never understood is what benefit networks have in running special miniseries or movies during sweeps. They will never air again, so it can't be to adjust advertising rates.

I think it's more of a bragging rights thing nowadays, and a time for local news stations to run their backlog of stripper stories :D

-smak-

[newsposter]

So you have 3 sweeps periods.

Now, I perfectly understand why they have them for regular shows, because it's checking the ratings 3 times a year to adjust advertising rates.

What i've never understood is what benefit networks have in running special miniseries or movies during sweeps. They will never air again, so it can't be to adjust advertising rates.

I think it's more of a bragging rights thing nowadays, and a time for local news stations to run their backlog of stripper stories :D

-smak-

finally someone that understands! (miniseries, repeats etc).

But I'd still love to hear those expert statisticians tell me why they need a 50% sample for ad rates but way less than 1 % for ratings (which ad rates are supposed to be based on)

[Rob Helmerichs]

What i've never understood is what benefit networks have in running special miniseries or movies during sweeps. They will never air again, so it can't be to adjust advertising rates.
It used to be that part of the advertising rate formula involved the average rating for the entire network. Since they still run tons of "event" programming during sweeps, I would assume that is still the case.

[Royster]

But I'd still love to hear those expert statisticians tell me why they need a 50% sample for ad rates but way less than 1 % for ratings (which ad rates are supposed to be based on)

The advertisers aren't intetrest in total ratings. They are interested in the demographic breakdowns which get more analysis during the sweeps periods. It isn't "We're sampling 50% of the episodes to get an idea of how many people are watching". It's "We're going to do the extra work of generating copious demographic statistics only 4 times a year beacuase it's a lot of friggin' work."

[forecheck]

Either there is no August sweeps, or they don't really matter since there isn't much original programming then.

So you have 3 sweeps periods.

Now, I perfectly understand why they have them for regular shows, because it's checking the ratings 3 times a year to adjust advertising rates.

What i've never understood is what benefit networks have in running special miniseries or movies during sweeps. They will never air again, so it can't be to adjust advertising rates.

I think it's more of a bragging rights thing nowadays, and a time for local news stations to run their backlog of stripper stories :D

-smak-

July is the other month, but you are right, it is in the summer and not given much weight.

If I understand sweeps correctly, they are mainly for the local stations, it is the only time where all stations in all 210 markets are rated. The network shows are rated every night, so the sweeps period really doesn't matter as much for them. But the networks go all out during that time because they want to increase overall viewership as a benefit for their affiliates (which they own a decent share of), and try to provide viewers for their news and syndicated show promos, plus a lead-in to the late news.

[DevdogAZ]

Either there is no August sweeps, or they don't really matter since there isn't much original programming then.

So you have 3 sweeps periods.

Now, I perfectly understand why they have them for regular shows, because it's checking the ratings 3 times a year to adjust advertising rates.

What i've never understood is what benefit networks have in running special miniseries or movies during sweeps. They will never air again, so it can't be to adjust advertising rates.

I think it's more of a bragging rights thing nowadays, and a time for local news stations to run their backlog of stripper stories :D

-smak-
There is a fourth sweeps period in July, but it's not nearly as important because it doesn't happen during the traditional season.

I believe networks sell advertizing based on timeslots and demographics, not shows. They do everything they can during the sweeps periods to maximize viewers, whether it's adding guest stars to show, taking underperforming shows off the air, running miniseries, creating controversy and then exploiting it with their news programs, etc. The ad rates for the rest of the season are based off the results from the sweeps periods.

newsposter, you are comparing apples and oranges. The sweeps periods are not a statistical sampling method to determine viewership. They are simply a time set up to more accurately measure the ratings because traditionally it was too expensive and time-consuming to measure that extensively the whole year. I'll never understand why the advertisers allow such skewed data to dictate ad rates, and I don't understand why they don't get rid of sweeps now that collecting data is much easier and more accurate. However, that is how things are done, and until the advertisers stop paying Nielsen for their data and demand a change in the system, that's the way it will continue to be. Viewers are simply pawns in the whole scheme of things.

[smak]

Networks might sell advertising for new shows based on timeslot, but certainly after year one everything is based on the show and it's ratings.

And I know that ad rates can even change in the middle of the season.

Desperate Housewives started out with rates at $155,000 per 30 seconds, and by Spring of 2005, they shot up to $400,000 after going up to $300,000 earlier.

A new show that becomes a big hit can cash in pretty early, because they wouldn't have sold a season's worth of ads, so there are ads left to sell for later in the season, and they can sell them knowing that 22 million people are watching DH, instead of some unknown show, which may or may not do well.

-smak-

[newsposter]

newsposter, you are comparing apples and oranges. The sweeps periods are not a statistical sampling method to determine viewership. They are simply a time set up to more accurately measure the ratings because traditionally it was too expensive and time-consuming to measure that extensively the whole year. I'll never understand why the advertisers allow such skewed data to dictate ad rates, and I don't understand why they don't get rid of sweeps now that collecting data is much easier and more accurate. However, that is how things are done, and until the advertisers stop paying Nielsen for their data and demand a change in the system, that's the way it will continue to be. Viewers are simply pawns in the whole scheme of things.

Apples: I knew someone would say that but it can't be true. If they are different then why in the world to shows get canceled for low ratings? That's the excuse they almost always give. Dont low ratings mean low viewship = low ad revenue = no money coming in to pay for the show? i can't believe im misunderstanding that part of the equation.

And i definitely cant wrap my arms around The sweeps periods are not a statistical sampling method to determine viewership. Aren't ratings THE viewership?

http://www.thefutoncritic.com/ratings.aspx?id=faq clearly shows, for example, a 2.7 adults 18-49 rating equals 2.7% of 130.0 million adults between the ages of 18 and 49 or 3,510,000 people. Therefore, doesn't that rating mean it's a way of measuring viewership? They said 3.5 million adults in that category watched the show. If that isnt a measure of viewership I dont know what is.

Now the one part i agree with you is that using 3 months out of the year to set rates is nuts. the good stuff is only on then. Heck the local news only does their secret stuff those months and uncovers the teacher stripper that's teaching your son in elementary school kind of story. They even advertise a few months ahead of time if you have a problem/story, call them. Then it will get put on sweeps.

[newsposter]

Volume, my friend, volume.

that's a lot of volume indeed

The chewing gum market is intensely competitive: there are about 20 chewing gum manufacturers in the U.S. alone. The Wrigley Company is by far the largest, with slightly less than half of all chewing gum sales.

Retail sales of chewing gum in the U.S. total more than $2 billion. That averages out to more than 190 sticks of gum per person every year!


soooo. 1 billion is wrigley

190 sticks x 25,000,000 people = 47,500,000,000 sticks = 4.75 billion (10paks)

4.75 billion x .25 (for example) = $1,187,500,000 in sales. Maybe i'll dig into their financials to see their per piece profit...nahhh...you do that one!

[hefe]

Upfronts?

Am I the only one who doesn't know what this term means?

[DevdogAZ]

I think you're missing the point. The ratings measure viewership. Those are the numbers you posted. In the larger markets, these ratings are done every day of the year, but are somewhat superficial. The Sweeps periods are simply the designated times when Nielsen collects way more data from every market in the US. Because of the amount of data that they collect, they've traditionally only done this four times a year rather than the whole year because it's cost prohibitive.

However, the content that the broadcasters air changes enough throughout the year that only taking these measurements one or two times a year would not be accurate, while the statistical methodology that is used to measure the ratings is such that the number of people sampled doesn't have to be very high to be accurate.

The basic idea of statistics says that as the total number of things being measured increases, the percentage that needs to be sampled in order to get accurate results decreases. Thus, if Nielsen is trying to measure what 100 million households are watching, they can probably get accurate results with a sample size of less than .1%. However, if you're measuring the variation in the timeslots of the networks, there are only 6 networks and 6 half-hour prime time slots per night, meaning that the total number of timeslots per week being measured is less than 40. Getting an accurate result when only measuring 40 things requires a much larger sample size than .1%, probably more like 25-30%

[DevdogAZ]

190 sticks x 25,000,000 people = 47,500,000,000 sticks = 4.75 billion (10paks)
There are over 300,000,000 people in the US. That means the total sales are about 12 times what you came up with.

[DevdogAZ]

Upfronts?

Am I the only one who doesn't know what this term means?
It's just an industry term that describes the time each spring when the networks trot out their new shows for advertisers so those advertisers can determine which ones they want to advertise during. It's usually during a week in the middle of May, and each network has a whole day where they make their presentations (the smaller networks usually share a day). They're basically putting their content "upfront" for the advertisers to see.

See Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upfront
In the North American television industry, an upfront is a meeting of television network executives with the press and, more importantly, with major advertisers. It is so called as it signals the start of an important advertising sales period, allowing marketers to buy commercial airtime "up front", or several months before the season begins.

In the United States, the major broadcast networks' upfronts occur in New York City during the third week of May, the last full week of that month's sweeps period. The networks announce their fall primetime schedules, including tentative launch dates (i.e. fall or midseason) for new programming, which may be "picked up" the week before. The programming announcements themselves are usually augmented with clips from the new series, extravagant musical numbers, comedic scenes, and appearances by network stars, and take place at grand venues such as Radio City Music Hall or Carnegie Hall. Most cable networks present earlier in the spring; press attention to these announcements is usually much lighter.

Upfronts in Canada are similar but occur in the first week of June, after networks there have had a chance to buy Canadian rights to new American series. Both broadcast and non-broadcast channels make presentations, with a single event per ownership group.

As of 2006, the major U.S. networks' upfronts are scheduled as follows:

NBC — Monday afternoon
My Network TV — Tuesday morning
ABC — Tuesday afternoon
CBS — Wednesday afternoon
The CW — Thursday morning
Fox — Thursday afternoon

[Church AV Guy]

Speaking of profits, how is it profitable to spent 1 million on ads for 25 cent gum? That's 4 mil units breakeven!

Speaking of this... why, oh why, are there SO many commercials for toothbrushes? Is this a really lucrative item? I see scores of these commercials all the time and I have to wonder, is the cost of a toothbrush mostly advertising? Is there THAT much profit in toothbrushes?

[Bierboy]

Upfronts?

Am I the only one who doesn't know what this term means?Nope....neither do I. I'm just a....well, look at my user sig. :rolleyes:

[newsposter]

However, the content that the broadcasters air changes enough throughout the year that only taking these measurements one or two times a year would not be accurate, while the statistical methodology that is used to measure the ratings is such that the number of people sampled doesn't have to be very high to be accurate.

Are you saying that there aren't different prices for different shows? I'm virtually positive that futon lists price per commercial for the top shows but can't find it right now. So I dont understand why you are saying that content varies and that it's relevant here. Lost is Lost, whether in september or january right? (assuming they are new eps) Why do you need to measure in both nov and feb? Wouldn't a sample of 4 new eps (out of 22) be enough?

Or if you are saying Lost is used to set ad rates for things like according to jim etc, then that's plain insane and the advertisers are stupid to have succumbed to this system.

or if you are saying the sweeps are for a particular time slot (your statement that content changes throughout the year), then how can you charge for one program in fall then use those rates for a brand new show in January after the fall show is yanked because of low ratings? Or even if the old show isn't yanked, but moved, how can you say the new show, at the old time slot, will have the same audience?

See why i'm confused?



The basic idea of statistics says that as the total number of things being measured increases, the percentage that needs to be sampled in order to get accurate results decreases. Thus, if Nielsen is trying to measure what 100 million households are watching, they can probably get accurate results with a sample size of less than .1%. However, if you're measuring the variation in the timeslots of the networks, there are only 6 networks and 6 half-hour prime time slots per night, meaning that the total number of timeslots per week being measured is less than 40. Getting an accurate result when only measuring 40 things requires a much larger sample size than .1%, probably more like 25-30%

How can you compare timeslots from different days of the week as 'one' unit? (you are saying there are less than 40 slots 6x6) Dont you mean 6 networks x 6 slots per night x 7 nights = 252? If you didn't mean that, then again, how crazy is that system? I'd think their own stats bear out there's much different viewership on sunday at 8pm than friday at 8pm and would think they wanted as much demographic breakdown as possible, not just lumping people into an 8pm slot across the board 7 days a week.

[newsposter]

Speaking of this... why, oh why, are there SO many commercials for toothbrushes? Is this a really lucrative item? I see scores of these commercials all the time and I have to wonder, is the cost of a toothbrush mostly advertising? Is there THAT much profit in toothbrushes?

as someone else said..volume!

but really..did you look at the prices lately...these things can cost 3-6 bucks each!

[DevdogAZ]

Are you saying that there aren't different prices for different shows? I'm virtually positive that futon lists price per commercial for the top shows but can't find it right now. So I dont understand why you are saying that content varies and that it's relevant here. Lost is Lost, whether in september or january right? (assuming they are new eps) Why do you need to measure in both nov and feb? Wouldn't a sample of 4 new eps (out of 22) be enough?

Or if you are saying Lost is used to set ad rates for things like according to jim etc, then that's plain insane and the advertisers are stupid to have succumbed to this system.

or if you are saying the sweeps are for a particular time slot (your statement that content changes throughout the year), then how can you charge for one program in fall then use those rates for a brand new show in January after the fall show is yanked because of low ratings? Or even if the old show isn't yanked, but moved, how can you say the new show, at the old time slot, will have the same audience?

See why i'm confused?
Yes, you are very confused. I'm not sure how you're getting any of that out of what I typed. Of course there are different prices for different shows. That is what the ratings measure so the networks can determine what to charge for each show (timeslot).

However, Lost in September is not Lost in January is not Lost in May. Viewership patterns change throughout the year. Fewer people are watching TV in the summer. Fewer people are watching in December and January. The sweeps are used to help measure the differences between these seasons.

Because shows get yanked and viewership patterns change is precisely why the sweeps are necessary several times a year and not just once. A network can't measure the viewership for a show at 9 p.m. on Tuesday for one month and then charge that same rate for the next year if that particular show gets pulled or if there is a different lead-in, etc.

And don't forget that while we get ratings numbers for the larger markets every day of the year, the smaller markets are only measured during the sweeps periods so while you see a ratings number for a show every day, it's not completely representative of the entire country unless it's during sweeps.

How can you compare timeslots from different days of the week as 'one' unit? (you are saying there are less than 40 slots 6x6) Dont you mean 6 networks x 6 slots per night x 7 nights = 252? If you didn't mean that, then again, how crazy is that system? I'd think their own stats bear out there's much different viewership on sunday at 8pm than friday at 8pm and would think they wanted as much demographic breakdown as possible, not just lumping people into an 8pm slot across the board 7 days a week.
You are correct that I made a math error here. There are about 40 slots per night, just over 250 for the week and the demographics for each half hour is vitally important. And of course you are right that the numbers from Sunday are vastly different than the numbers from Friday (for example). However, the basic statistical principle still holds. For a total group of 250, the sample size in order to get an accurate result is going to be fairly high, probably still in the 30% range. This is because at that small number, even one person changing makes a difference in the overall numbers, while one person changing in a total size of 100 million won't make a difference at all.

[murgatroyd]

Tuesday
8:00 p.m. Dancing With the Stars (new day)

Thursday
9:00 p.m. Grey’s Anatomy (new day and time)


Some nights I have absolutely nothing on the To Do Lists, on Tuesday and Thursday I have three-way conflicts.

:down: :down: :down:

Not that the networks give a rat's ass about anything I watch -- I'm not in their desired demographic. :mad:

Jan