Is SD going to MPEG4 also?

[newsposter]

Someone told me it will always be mpeg2 and that the hdtivos will be around forever because of at least that recording capability. I dont really believe them because that would be ideal for me (and i rarely get what i want lol). I only get HBO and SHO HD and if i lose them, i dont care as long as I continue getting my OTA and can still use the good ole hdtivo :)

Or heck, i could still have my old hdtivos and just use the new junk when it comes out if by some miracle more cable stations ever do start broadcasting in HD.

[Jabberer]

"Always" is a pretty long time, but I would point out that if they went MPEG4 on all thier SD channels, they'd have to replace every DTV box out there, which at a guess would be upwards of 20 million boxes, which I just don't see happening.

[Rkkeller]

I think EchoStar is changing everything to MPEG4 or thats what I heard.

[newsposter]

"Always" is a pretty long time, but I would point out that if they went MPEG4 on all thier SD channels, they'd have to replace every DTV box out there, which at a guess would be upwards of 20 million boxes, which I just don't see happening.

Thus 'my' confusion. And I doubt i'm the only one with this thinking. All this talk of mpeg 4 switchover may have gotten some of us overlooking this question. My personal belief was that everything was going to be mpeg4. If it is not, then the talk of turning off mpeg2 is totally irrelevant for me personally since I'll only be losing SHO and HBO if they convert those to mpeg4. This means that my HDtivo will work for a very very long time and of course all the SD tivos will also.

My believe that everything was changing to mpeg4 also was supporting my theory that the HDtivos would work for a very long time because of what you said above...that they would have to switch out millions of boxes and that's very very $$$$. So until that happened, i figured the hdtivo was safe.

[ebonovic]

"Always" is a pretty long time, but I would point out that if they went MPEG4 on all thier SD channels, they'd have to replace every DTV box out there, which at a guess would be upwards of 20 million boxes, which I just don't see happening.


That 20 million is a "low" number, it is probably upwards toward 30-35 million
(15 Million subscribers, and an average of 2-3 units per subscriber)

That also doesn't include hardware that is on the "shelf" in people's home...

Needless to say...

It is almost cost prohibitive for DirecTV to change the core programming to MPEG-4. But time will tell (but you are probably easily looking at 10 years or so from now)

[tbeckner]

That 20 million is a "low" number, it is probably upwards toward 30-35 million
(15 Million subscribers, and an average of 2-3 units per subscriber)

That also doesn't include hardware that is on the "shelf" in people's home...

Needless to say...

It is almost cost prohibitive for DirecTV to change the core programming to MPEG-4. But time will tell (but you are probably easily looking at 10 years or so from now)I'm with Earl on this one; your DirecTiVos will likely DIE at a ripe old age long before DirecTV goes MPEG4 for SD. A decade is a good guess and it could be longer, the replacement costs to replace millions of receivers and DirecTiVos would likely run in the mid billions and I really doubt that even News Corp has that type of money to just throw around and waste replacing working technology.

The math, just using 20 million devices at a cost of $200 each would run $4 billion, not including shipping and handling. So the total cost today to replace all working SD devices and the transmitting ground stations (minimal cost) could easily approach $7 billion or more, using Earl's numbers.

It is very unlikely that DirecTV would even spend a billion on such foolishness, and $7 billion would be totally out of the question, but in a decade or so the cost would far less prohibitive.

[newsposter]

It is almost cost prohibitive for DirecTV to change the core programming to MPEG-4. But time will tell (but you are probably easily looking at 10 years or so from now)

aww geez so here i (and others in my position) am worried about nothing with the - insert eerie music here- switch off. I'll keep both HDtivos for my quadruple HD conflicts OTA (and also thereby getting in more locals in HD than directv will ever likely provide anyway), and if by some miracle there is a sci fi/usa/etc HD channel that does become mpeg4, i can slip in one dtv dvr and suffer with its interface.

the sky is indeed not falling. (at least for me)

[HiDefGator]

Even if they take 10 years to switch everything over to MPEG4. there will likely be new stuff only offered on the MPEG4 streams that will make you want to upgrade long before they turn off MPEG2. They could also start moving some lesser watched MPEG2 channels one at a time to MPEG4.

[Arcady]

Hopefully there will be a compression scheme better than MPEG4 in 10 years. (And if there is, D* will start using it in about 20 years.) By that time, I really doubt I will still be a D* customer.

[newsposter]

Even if they take 10 years to switch everything over to MPEG4. there will likely be new stuff only offered on the MPEG4 streams that will make you want to upgrade long before they turn off MPEG2.

agreed, thus i would be forced to add a 3rd box to my 2 tivos....it's palatable and i could probably handle it.


They could also start moving some lesser watched MPEG2 channels one at a time to MPEG4.

hmmm, i doubt they would do that piecemeal because you know that 'someone' would be complaining. Of course if they have the boxes for free sent out ahead of time..no biggie. I simply can't ever see them taking existing SD and mandating a change without people being fully informed and getting new boxes first.

[newsposter]

Hopefully there will be a compression scheme better than MPEG4 in 10 years. (And if there is, D* will start using it in about 20 years.) By that time, I really doubt I will still be a D* customer.

mpeg8? How could you give up your tivo :)

[HiDefGator]

They could start moving SD locals to MPEG4 one city at a time. It would free up bandwidth on the existing satelites for less compression or more PPV offerings.

[newsposter]

well since there is a finite number that have locals turned on for any given city, all they have to do is switch out all the boxes in that area...yes

wonder how many boxes are in the bigger cities?

[crendall]

I would think DirecTV would come out with SD boxes that could do MPEG4 and start getting those out for people buying new SD boxes. That way they could slowly get everyone on to MPEG4. After a number of years when enough people have MPEG4 boxes DirecTV could then switch everything to MPEG4.

Chris

[Billy Bob Boy]

I'm with Earl on this one; your DirecTiVos will likely DIE at a ripe old age long before DirecTV goes MPEG4 for SD. A decade is a good guess and it could be longer, the replacement costs to replace millions of receivers and DirecTiVos would likely run in the mid billions and I really doubt that even News Corp has that type of money to just throw around and waste replacing working technology.

The math, just using 20 million devices at a cost of $200 each would run $4 billion, not including shipping and handling. So the total cost today to replace all working SD devices and the transmitting ground stations (minimal cost) could easily approach $7 billion or more, using Earl's numbers.

It is very unlikely that DirecTV would even spend a billion on such foolishness, and $7 billion would be totally out of the question, but in a decade or so the cost would far less prohibitive.7 billion!!! Thats walkin around money fer rupert :eek: Doncha know, he blows his nose with hundred dollar bills :D I hate to tell ya what he does with the 50's :eek: :p :D :cool:

[newsposter]

let's keep with the optimism...love it. Makes my hdtivos worth more to me every day.

next....

[WeBoat]

How much bandwidth would mpeg4 on everything free? Enough that they wouldn't have to put up a new satellite? What's one of those bad boys cost? That would go a lot towards helping pay for the transition. Just something to think about. I think they will start putting mpeg4 in the newer boxes. within 3 or 4 years more than 50% will have switched from hardware attrition, then it might be cost effective to switch everyone.

Time will tell! Just an opinion....

[ebonovic]

Well those #'s that where posted regarding the swap out, was just for the hardware alone.

That doesn't include the $$$ for the people involved, from CSRs, Logistics, Installers, ect....

[kryte98371]

Yes, the $$$ for installers. Let's pay someone to swap out a box, because D* REQUIRES that someone comes out to replace a box! One of the MAIN reasons I dropped cable 10+ years ago was because I had to be home every time my cable had problems, and that was several times a year! Needless to say, I spend half of my yearly vacation at home waiting for the cable installer to come out and replace the filter ON THE POLE (nothing wrong in my house). I've installed my dish at both of my houses over the years, replaced the singble LNB dish with a 3-LNB dish, and NEVER had an installer out. I surely don't need an installer to align my dish when I take it with me camping. Although I love my D*, I refuse to take a vacation day (or waste a Saturday) just to replace a receiver and/or dish. I'll continue to use my current system until it is no longer useable. Luckily, I can get my locals OTA, so no rush for the H20. Sorry for the rant :(

[ebonovic]

Just because YOU don't need an installer, doesn't mean the next guy doesn't...

[tbeckner]

7 billion!!! Thats walkin around money fer rupert :eek: Doncha know, he blows his nose with hundred dollar bills :D I hate to tell ya what he does with the 50's :eek: :p :D :cool:Is that why MURDOCH is making such a big thing about spending a billion on buying broadband assets so DirecTV can compete with cable on VOD?

I not only doubt that Murdoch would spend $7 billion or more on replacing working technology when there is absolutely NO NEED to do so, but I could almost say NEVER, at least for the next 6 to 7 years or more.

And we do know that he has absolutely NO PLAN on replacing DirecTiVo MPEG2 technology wholesale until after February 2010, the new end of the contract.

Now if you know more about Murdoch's plans than anyone else, maybe even Murdoch, you might like to break the news so that the DirecTV stock can take an immediate DUMP and the customers can start running for the exits. :)

[lajohn27]

Generally speaking I agree across the board with TBeckner with one notable set of exceptions..

There *IS* a reason to switch all the feeds to MP4 - it would increase bandwidth available on existing satellite hardware signficantly enough to allow for the introduction of even more services.

Now is that worth 7 billion? Probably not.

My argument is.. that right now MP4 is restricted to local HD signals in certain markets. WAY before 2010, DirecTicket will get switched to MP4... and then some other premium services.. most users will *want* to upgrade to get those services being moved to MP4 service. (ie: Switch to MP4 and get 2 more HBO-HD channels than you do now.. for an example)

There will be a gradual transition .. so that eventually they will decide to take the rest of the service to MP4 and announce a transition over a period of a few years.

It is doable following this line of thinking. It seems unwieldy.. but it could *and very likely will* get done before 2012.

J

[Billy Bob Boy]

Is that why MURDOCH is making such a big thing about spending a billion on buying broadband assets so DirecTV can compete with cable on VOD?

I not only doubt that Murdoch would spend $7 billion or more on replacing working technology when there is absolutely NO NEED to do so, but I could almost say NEVER, at least for the next 6 to 7 years or more.

And we do know that he has absolutely NO PLAN on replacing DirecTiVo MPEG2 technology wholesale until after February 2010, the new end of the contract.

Now if you know more about Murdoch's plans than anyone else, maybe even Murdoch, you might like to break the news so that the DirecTV stock can take an immediate DUMP and the customers can start running for the exits. :)A Joke :D Ever heard of sarcasm :D No SHAFT!(that was the word they used to replace the word you cant say on tv in a edited movie i saw :D ) I know theres no FOOLING(thats another word to replace the no tv word :p ) way that the boxes will get replaced! :rolleyes:

[newsposter]

Just because YOU don't need an installer, doesn't mean the next guy doesn't...

Speaking strictly from an economic perspective, wouldn't it save directv $ if those who

1. were simply replacing an old receiver with a new one (assume same dish is compatible)

2. already did one self install (and so in theory can run 2 more lines for a 2nd tivo)

3. other similar easy situations

were simply allowed to either install their own stuff for free or even given a credit (I dont know what dtv pays per trip) for the self install (like i was last year $250)

I realize there are at least 1000 different types of situations, but if installs could be cut down even a teeeeny bit by using the group of people who 'do' know what they are doing, then couldn't those installers be freed up and out helping those who really do need help?

In other words why do 'we' have to wait for a 1-5 appt for the guy just to install a replacement receiver, or add a tivo when we have already run the lines? Then they dont show up, we get mad, they are back doing a 4 room install on a 3 story building and they are already mad if they do get to us today...you see what I mean.

When asked about self installs (in 2005) directv told me that if someone does a self install incorrectly, then they have to come out anyway and fix it (inferring free). That made no sense to me. If someone does a self install, then directv should not be responsible for fixing the setup unless they are paid. I see no problem with that model and thought it was a cop out answer.