How much cash will lifetime upgraders give TiVo?

[TiVoEvan74]

With all the rush of folks going lifetime, e.g., upgrading their 2nd (3rd, etc.) units from monthly to lifetime (I, among many, just did it, too)--I got to pondering how much $$ that will net TiVo.

What's the total number of subscribers?

What % are monthly?

Estimate a certain % of those upgrading and what happens to this quarter's revenue stream?

Could have a good impact on the bottom line.

Maybe it's time to rush out and buy TiVo stock then dump it after the revenues are announced.

[xnevergiveinx]

i originally thought you were looking to see how much a normal tivo user would pay for lifetime if it ever came back.

i'm pretty cheap, so if a series 3 came out, i'd pay $500 for lifetime...if that included the box. and i doubt that would be the case.

doesn't answer your question, but whatever. i was going to buy sirius stock last year, but never got around to it...

[TriBruin]

With all the rush of folks going lifetime, e.g., upgrading their 2nd (3rd, etc.) units from monthly to lifetime (I, among many, just did it, too)--I got to pondering how much $$ that will net TiVo.

What's the total number of subscribers?

What % are monthly?

Estimate a certain % of those upgrading and what happens to this quarter's revenue stream?

Could have a good impact on the bottom line.

Maybe it's time to rush out and buy TiVo stock then dump it after the revenues are announced.

It will have little or no impact on Tivo's revenue stream. Cash flow is not the same as revenue. Tivo recognize Lifetime subscribers over 4 years (~$6.25 mo.) So for every subscriber that coverted to Lifetime Tivo will have a smaller monthly revenue! ($6.25/mo vs $6.95 or $12.95)

I haven't looked at their balance sheet, but you are most likely to see is an increase a Liability (something like Prepaid Subscriptions). This is also where Tivo will park the revenue for all the new prepaid subscription options then recognize on a monthly basis of the term of the subscription.

As an aside, Tivo will see a pretty good Cash flow from the new Lifetime subscriptions.

[TivoGeezer]

I have a second TiVo but will not go lifetime. It would take nearly 4 years for it to be worth it and by then I will most likely have HD. If I only had one, or did not have lifetime on the first one, i would definitely do it. It would only take two year to make that up.

I think it will be a nice windfall for TiVo.

[HDTiVo]

With all the rush of folks going lifetime, e.g., upgrading their 2nd (3rd, etc.) units from monthly to lifetime (I, among many, just did it, too)--I got to pondering how much $$ that will net TiVo.

What's the total number of subscribers?

What % are monthly?

Estimate a certain % of those upgrading and what happens to this quarter's revenue stream?

Could have a good impact on the bottom line.

Maybe it's time to rush out and buy TiVo stock then dump it after the revenues are announced.
I'm an upfront money kind of guy with approximately a $15,000 budget over the next two years for CE equipment (HDTVs/DMRs/HD-DVRs/HD-DVDs)

Not being the eBay type, I find it hard to justify taking a 2nd box to Lifetime from $6.95, let alone a 3rd or 4th.

That said, TiVo will end up with a very nice increase in its Defered Liabilities at the end of this QTR, and a nice increase in cash on hand - if they don't blow the cash otherwise.

[TiVoEvan74]

Well, if that's how it gets figured in the accounting, then it's not time to buy the stock--not unless one assumes that the new pricing scheme is going to work.

[HDTiVo]

Well, if that's how it gets figured in the accounting, then it's not time to buy the stock--not unless one assumes that the new pricing scheme is going to work.
This is not the best place to come for such advice.
;)

[ZeoTiVo]

It will have little or no impact on Tivo's revenue stream. Cash flow is not the same as revenue. Tivo recognize Lifetime subscribers over 4 years (~$6.25 mo.) So for every subscriber that coverted to Lifetime Tivo will have a smaller monthly revenue! ($6.25/mo vs $6.95 or $12.95)

I haven't looked at their balance sheet, but you are most likely to see is an increase a Liability (something like Prepaid Subscriptions). This is also where Tivo will park the revenue for all the new prepaid subscription options then recognize on a monthly basis of the term of the subscription.

As an aside, Tivo will see a pretty good Cash flow from the new Lifetime subscriptions.


exactly that Cash Flow for now
but over time the Lifetimes will become a drag on TiVo bottom line. Most likely why they just gave a week for people to decide.

I have a 240 box that I lifetimed as it was my first TiVo bought. That lifetime is an excellent value :up:
I have an RS TX20 adn SD H400 - that both have TiVo Basic as well - they are on MSD. when better hardware comes out I will let these revert to TiVo Basic.
I have a 540 model and I considered lifetime when I got it , but went MSD there as well, when new hardware comes out - I will most likely start hacking this box to see what I can come up with (not theft of service but new functionality for old TiVo boxes - that will be a cool aftermarket in years to come)

so the new pricing plans had nothing in them to change my mind on this, and lifetime was not worth it to me on MSD boxes before and still is not.

I will save my money for the next round of hardware coming, especially If I can just apply my MSD monthly to a no upfront/monthly on the new hardware by dropping subscription on the old.

[dgh]

I went to my Best Buy last night looking for those lifetime gifts cards and heard: Oh you're only about the ten thousandth person to ask for those. So it sounds like there should be a bump.

[HDTiVo]

but over time the Lifetimes will become a drag on TiVo bottom line.
Lifetime becomes a "drag" on day 2. But day 1 is a real beauty.
:)

[ZeoTiVo]

Lifetime becomes a "drag" on day 2. But day 1 is a real beauty.
:)

too true. Lots of cash to finish up the new hardware and pay a good Mac developer what they are worth ;)

[TiVoEvan74]

Hear, hear for a Mac developer!

[ChuckyBox]

I haven't looked at their balance sheet, but you are most likely to see is an increase a Liability (something like Prepaid Subscriptions).

"Deferred revenue."

My guess is that the number won't be that high. I'd wager that most TiVo owners are unaware of the change, and the ones that are aware of it will mostly have made their decisions about lifetime already. There will be some, like me, who will take the opportunity to do something they were going to do anyway. I'd put that number in the hundreds or low thousands. All of the remaining lifetime cards have probably been purchased by speculators so, depending on the number of those in circulation, the number could possibly go up a few thousand more.

But unless the number is quite large, it will be hard to separate from the ordinary noise level in the balance sheet.*

*By "noise" I mean numbers that are hard to accurately compute because we aren't given exact numbers for some things (like the exact number of new subs choosing lifetime vs. monthly).

[ufo4sale]

I spoke to a service rep at TiVo yesterday while upgrading to lifetime. She told me that over the past week over 60 percent of the calls was to upgrade to lifetime. If you call the number they actually made it an option in the main menu. So take it for what it's worth.