"Street Value" of Lifetime Service?

[ChuckyBox]

Okay, lets see if we can figure out how much lifetime service is really worth. Here are the conditions: You are in the market for a box with lifetime service, and it is unavailable from TiVo. You turn to ebay. The availability of lifetime boxes on ebay is about what it is today. How much do you bid? (Assume you only get one bid, and you know the price these things have been selling for recently.)

Here is the box you are bidding on:
40-hour 540 box w/ lifetime subscription
used for less than 2 years
unhacked, the case has never been opened
comes with remote, power cord, original cables, etc.
photographs of the actual item, it looks fine
seller is reputable
shipping will be $20 anywhere in the US
let's say it is late May of this year, and the Series 3 box has not been released yet

[JustAllie]

My crystal ball is foggy. If someone is thinking of buying a TiVo and putting Lifetime on it purely for its investment value, I think they're taking a risk, unless they are getting the TiVo box itself for almost nothing.

If you already own a TiVo and plan to keep it for a number of months and then re-sell it, though, Lifetime would be a fine investment today.

That's what my foggy crystal ball says, anyway.

[ducker]

I think the value would go up potentially more when the series 3 DO come out and people are looking for Multi Product Discounts w/o paying higher monthly payments. With a box on lifetime, I'd think it doesn't even really matter if it does or doesn't "work" so long as you have it!! (well I guess you'd have to connect the box at least once) And then when the series 3's come out, you could pay up front 1 year for the box... and after that 1 year simply pay the Multi-product discount.

At least I think it could work that way!

[PhillyGuy]

I think the value would go up potentially more when the series 3 DO come out and people are looking for Multi Product Discounts w/o paying higher monthly payments. With a box on lifetime, I'd think it doesn't even really matter if it does or doesn't "work" so long as you have it!! (well I guess you'd have to connect the box at least once) And then when the series 3's come out, you could pay up front 1 year for the box... and after that 1 year simply pay the Multi-product discount.

At least I think it could work that way!


They are going to pay $300 to save $6 a month?

[lajohn27]

They are going to pay $300 to save $6 a month?


Philly - In another thread some folks posted they'd buy an MCE computer (min 600$ to save 6$ a month..

Not everyone thinks things thru I guess.

J

[PhillyGuy]

Philly - In another thread some folks posted they'd buy an MCE computer (min 600$ to save 6$ a month..

Not everyone thinks things thru I guess.

J

Windows Media Center is first and foremost a computer. You are essentially getting a PC with Windows XP plus additional multimedia capabilities. Most people with with MCE are going to use it as a computer connected to a large screen and watch TV that way. You can also get an extender and connect it to a TV and use MCE functions remotely. So you are actually getting a lot more than just a DVR.

[ducker]

They are going to pay $300 to save $6 a month?


well no if it wasn't working... but if it is - yea sure, why not!! save $6 a month AND get another Tivo box.

I'd wager that $6 a month will slide up eventually too.

[ZeoTiVo]

I have my 540 on MSD at 7$ a year right now. lifetime was not a good value to me at 300$ already on second boxes, since I know my 540 will be of little use by 2007 when new hardware comes from TiVo inc on the heels of this pricing plan change. ;)

I actually would be looking for a 540 with no lifetime and would pay just for the hardware based on hard drive size/hacks instead

[MickeS]

Sicne the 3-year commitment is $469 IIRC, and after that it goes to monthly... I put it at that range in the poll. It doesn't make sense to pay that much for just 3 years if I can get for the life of the unit for the same price.

[miadlor]

Sicne the 3-year commitment is $469 IIRC, and after that it goes to monthly... I put it at that range in the poll. It doesn't make sense to pay that much for just 3 years if I can get for the life of the unit for the same price.
* seems the poll should be ...."What are you willing to sell your lifetime box for"
Since it should be directed to new customers.
If someone is willing to pay for the 3 year, then lifetime has to be worth somewhat more.

Now if that 3 year commitment had a guarenteed free box replacement, then it might be equal.

[PhillyGuy]

Sicne the 3-year commitment is $469 IIRC, and after that it goes to monthly... I put it at that range in the poll. It doesn't make sense to pay that much for just 3 years if I can get for the life of the unit for the same price.

Yes, but as time goes on, less people are going to get an old series 2 and use it indefinitely. I think a lot people will think that a monthly makes sense for a year or two with no up front cost, then they can upgrade it to a high definition box.

[HDTiVo]

The poll is your estimate of street value, or what would you pay?

Quite different questions.

[ChuckyBox]

Based on this completely unscientific, statistically insignificant survey, it looks like about one-third of the people responding would pay (or expect to pay) $375 or more. That makes me think the price on ebay will rise. Given the shape of the "demand curve" above, it looks like the actual selling price will be determined by supply and demand economics (rather than some intrisic value or external control (as has been the case up to now with TiVo still selling lifetime subscriptions)).

It will be interesting to see what happens.

[PhillyGuy]

Based on this completely unscientific, statistically insignificant survey, it looks like about one-third of the people responding would pay (or expect to pay) $375 or more. That makes me think the price on ebay will rise. Given the shape of the "demand curve" above, it looks like the actual selling price will be determined by supply and demand economics (rather than some intrisic value or external control (as has been the case up to now with TiVo still selling lifetime subscriptions)).

It will be interesting to see what happens.

This is the Tivo forum. People who voted in the poll are current Tivo users and know how convenient Tivo is over a cable/satellite DVR. However, the majority of newbies are unlikely to make that kind of investment when they can get it "cheaper" from Tivo or from their providers.

[ChuckyBox]

This is the Tivo forum. People who voted in the poll are current Tivo users and know how convenient Tivo is over a cable/satellite DVR. However, the majority of newbies are unlikely to make that kind of investment when they can get it "cheaper" from Tivo or from their providers.
You make a good point. But the ebay TiVo market isn't that big (relative to the overall TiVo market), and I would guess that the buyers there are a bit more TiVo savvy than the typical newbie. But we shall see. I'm hoping to learn what the market thinks lifetime is worth -- but with both TV and TiVo in transition, that may be box-dependent (e.g., lifetime on a Series 3 would probably be worth more than lifetime on a Series 2).

[Troy J B]

well I answered this poll for a slightly different question....
if you had a series2 with lifetime, how much would pay for lifetime on a series3 ?
my answer $300-374
that's right in line with the MSD rate for 4 years.