Tom Rogers' Interview with Bloomberg News

[RoyK]

http://thomashawk.com/2006/02/meet-new-boss-not-same-as-old-boss-ceo.html

[ZeoTiVo]

wow, I am usually near the front of the line on criticizing Thomas Hawk but the artilce linked by RoyK was really balanced and pretty informative on the challenges and oppurtunities facing TiVo, inc.

Interesting information (new to me) on the DirectTV aftermarket that was linked in the article on Vista Media Center. It implied a way to get DirectTV tuning from a DirectTV reciever to a cable card for Microsoft Media Center (Vista version)
link to Sean Alexandar Blog (http://blog.seanalexander.com/PermaLink,guid,ac5b9c90-1d7a-4aaf-81a8-b024b1d16628.aspx ) that was in Thomas Hawk article
Also news at CES was the DirecTV Media Center announcement. In the future (timing wasn't discussed), you'll be able to have an installer come out and install a DirecTV tuner into your Media Center PC and get your local channels complete with DVR. As many know, DirecTV uses their own protection scheme with a "conditional access card" not unlike a cablecard. The big difference here is that they recognize the value in offering an after-market system installed by their own installers. In the past, it was DirecTV that was considered "evil" for their use of DRM and protecting their assets too stringently vs. Cable. Could the shoe be on the other foot? Only time will tell.

[HDTiVo]

I liked hearing that the new pricing model(s) are going to be looked further at early this year.

[HDTiVo]

Originally Posted by Sean Alexandar Blog
Also news at CES was the DirecTV Media Center announcement. In the future (timing wasn't discussed), you'll be able to have an installer come out and install a DirecTV tuner into your Media Center PC and get your local channels complete with DVR. As many know, DirecTV uses their own protection scheme with a "conditional access card" not unlike a cablecard. The big difference here is that they recognize the value in offering an after-market system installed by their own installers. In the past, it was DirecTV that was considered "evil" for their use of DRM and protecting their assets too stringently vs. Cable. Could the shoe be on the other foot? Only time will tell.

I need someone to explain how the shoe is on the other foot. Help.

[TechDreamer]

The article states that Tivo has a churn rate that is the envy of the industry. So how come Tivo now requires a 1 year subscription? Why is Tivo so worried if the churn rate is so low?

[davezatz]

I need someone to explain how the shoe is on the other foot. Help.
I generally try to wear shoes on both feet.

[davezatz]

The article states that Tivo has a churn rate that is the envy of the industry. So how come Tivo now requires a 1 year subscription? Why is Tivo so worried if the churn rate is so low?

Is it possible they're worried how people will react once new models hit the streets? Seems like hardware costs are offset through subscriptions... so if I trash a Series 2 for something else that box may not be fully paid for.

[HDTiVo]

I generally try to wear shoes on both feet.
Then you're down to rabbit ears?

[ZeoTiVo]

Is it possible they're worried how people will react once new models hit the streets? Seems like hardware costs are offset through subscriptions... so if I trash a Series 2 for something else that box may not be fully paid for.

the idea of a flat subscription for say 16.95 a month had its trial and I recall interviews where TiVo inc. said they like the results of the trial. This is the model I expect they will try soon.

and yes I think dave is right that the one year contract is part of that idea since they need the extra 4$ a month for 12 months to pay 48$ toward the box. Sign up for two years and get the 14.95 rate. etc..

Obviously most of us here are fine with paying upfront for the hardware, but there seems to be lots of people out there that might go for the monthly plan.
Wonder if they will have a hardware upgrade in the plan when series 3 comes out ;)

[ChuckyBox]

the idea of a flat subscription for say 16.95 a month had its trial and I recall interviews where TiVo inc. said they like the results of the trial. This is the model I expect they will try soon.

According to Tom Rogers (when he spoke at a Smith Barney Citigroup investors' conference) the conversion rate (i.e., the number of people who actually sign up after calling in about TiVo) for that offer was three to five times the conversion rate they were used to with the traditional offer where the consumer buys the box and also pays for service.

So they will absolutely bring that offer back. My guess is that we haven't seen it already only because of 1) the Christmas madness is still winding down, and 2) there seems to be a considerable shortage of inventory now, and 3) they'll have to make arrangement with the retailers to make this offer.

As for churn, while TiVo's is very low, it has been creeping up as a result of competition. The one-year contract not only allows TiVo to get their money back on the boxes, but it also helps insure that the consumer will spend some time using their TiVo (which, as we all know, will cause them to love it :D ). Again, according to Rogers, consumer resistance to the service contract was low.

[HDTiVo]

According to Tom Rogers (when he spoke at a Smith Barney Citigroup investors' conference) the conversion rate (i.e., the number of people who actually sign up after calling in about TiVo) for that offer was three to five times the conversion rate they were used to with the traditional offer where the consumer buys the box and also pays for service.

So they will absolutely bring that offer back. My guess is that we haven't seen it already only because of 1) the Christmas madness is still winding down, and 2) there seems to be a considerable shortage of inventory now, and 3) they'll have to make arrangement with the retailers to make this offer.

As for churn, while TiVo's is very low, it has been creeping up as a result of competition. The one-year contract not only allows TiVo to get their money back on the boxes, but it also helps insure that the consumer will spend some time using their TiVo (which, as we all know, will cause them to love it :D ). Again, according to Rogers, consumer resistance to the service contract was low.
The Hawk summary of the Bloomberg interview mentions Rogers saying "We will look further at this early this year." with regard to the pricing model.

Maybe TiVo will pull out of the retail channel and just sell direct. Rogers has also been saying that 30 sec adds and retail displays - ie. short form ads and explanations - don't lead to closing many sales because it takes far more to get someone to understand the benefits of a TiVo. Selling direct using the website for long form product info with the zero box cost (or even just "renting" the box) might be how they go.