What price would you pay for a series 3?

[Stormspace]

For me, I'd have to say I might pay 300.00 before rebates. I'd settle for a stripped down version that supported CC, had two tuners, but no HD or built-in ethernet, with series 2 compatibility for that price as well.

This is for a monthly unit, of course.

[shady]

If I had to pay around $600, that wouldn't disappoint me. Maybe a little more if there is a period where we can transfer lifetime service to the box.

If the Comcast TiVo box was released at the same time, then obviously that would have an affect on what I might pay. The alternative would be to build a Pc or Linux based system which would be much more expensive, assuming Cablecard would be available for that.

PS - You should make this a pole

[Riverdome]

Honestly for a HD Tivo that supports CC I would pay a lot. CC allows me to get rid of my cable box and eliminates all issues with channel changing. As long as I can upgrade the hard drive to allow for tons of HD content to be recorded I would pay quite a bit.

[JohnTivo]

If the unit costs between $500 and $800, I'll buy two w/ lifetime. Any more than that, I'll stick with one unit.

[rkester]

I sure hope its not $800!

Based on current items prices etc, I'd guess $500 or so probably with some nice rebates to get people interested. And I'd probably get one if that was the case.

[ZeoTiVo]

I am going to try and hold out for 400$ after rebate, since I miss little now with my 4 TiVos and just use analog extended basic cable and SD.

how about adding a poll

[jlb]

Right now, not much as I don't have HD at home. I would still use this box to drive my SD Analog TV and replace my two S2 SAs, but it would have to be much lower than it is going to initially be.

Also as noted above, whatever happens with the TiVO on Comcast boxes will play a role......

I'm also monthly on both of my boxes (first one was that way for the WAF and we never switched, then the second stayed monthly to get the MSD).

So, if the comcast boxes with TiVO end up looking and feeling just like what I have now, those will be key possibilities for me.

[HogarthNH]

$500 w/ lifetime included. (or $199 without)
I think that's the pricepoint required to achieve maximal market penetration.

No one else except the most devout TiVo looneys (of which I have been one) would pay more up-front capital for a box when they can lease a (admittedly substandard) DVR from virtually everyone else under the sun.

H

[ChuckyBox]

I'd be okay with $800 (though $600 would be nice) for the box.

Those of you who are hoping for sub $500 prices are probably going to have to wait a year or two -- I don't think TiVo is looking at this box as a high volume driver of new subscriptions, so they probably won't be willing to take a loss on the hardware to sell a box to a subscriber they already have. You might get a discount of some sort, but I doubt they'll do the deep-discount/rebate thing they're doing with the Series 2.

[dadx2]

I'm willing to pay $400 plus lifetime, anymore and I'll wait until the price comes down. But, I want my stand alone HD tivo! :D

[mgar]

I would like to see it below $800 including lifetime. I could buy it at this price, but I am concerned that multi-room viewing may not operate between series 2 and series 3. If this is the case, then I will need to keep running my two old TiVo's as well. I mention MRVing because there is some speculation that lifetime may be transferable from a series 2 to a series 3.

[rainwater]

The big question will be monthly fee. I don't see how they are going to market this box with the current monthly fee. Since it will require users (who want digital) to rent a cablecard (and most people will want two), its going to be hard to keep the current price point. Asking people to invest a lot of money into a box and then still pay almost twice the current montly fee of a hd dvr from the cable money is going to be a hard sell. It will be interesting to see what they come up with.

[ZeoTiVo]

The big question will be monthly fee. I don't see how they are going to market this box with the current monthly fee. Since it will require users (who want digital) to rent a cablecard (and most people will want two), its going to be hard to keep the current price point. Asking people to invest a lot of money into a box and then still pay almost twice the current montly fee of a hd dvr from the cable money is going to be a hard sell. It will be interesting to see what they come up with.

but they can return cable boxes and swap them for the cable card(s). People pay extra for digital cable, just the way it is and not TiVo's problem.

now selling a 700$ or whatever box with 12$ monthly or 300$ lifetime will be TiVo's problem, but for those that do not want that then get an SD TiVo and a cable box for much less adn give up HD as that will also cost more if you want it

[Justin Thyme]

TivoPony said the S3 would not be $50. I do understand that a 250GB drive really is minimum for an HD DVR, and historically the price of those drives have forced such dvrs up into the ranges being discussed. However, the prices of these drives has plummetted, so I am questioning why people are assuming super high price points. Is it simply because audience is the high end segment- it's a price what the market will bear early adoption price- production runs not high, manufacturing cogs still high etc. but will come down in time as with S2.0 going to S2.5 efficient production design amortization of expensive developement costs, inherently expensive hardware that folks think have to be in the S3 box I see extra costs there, sure. There are some neat new chips being used. But will the chip count be significantly higher, and does $10 more for two of the key chips mean that the entire box has a manufacturing cost that is 4X the S2?
Until we know more about the guts of this puppy, it is impossible to speculate. I just see the possibility that S3 architecture machines could be sold at a very low price point. Whether that is the box that TivoPony showed is another question. Maybe an S3 minus cablecard slots and plus some analog connectors is what Tivo sells after the 2007 digital switchover- after which time they may not sell the S2 without a converter.

[Justin Thyme]

The big question will be monthly fee. I don't see how they are going to market this box with the current monthly fee. Since it will require users (who want digital) to rent a cablecard (and most people will want two), its going to be hard to keep the current price point. Asking people to invest a lot of money into a box and then still pay almost twice the current montly fee of a hd dvr from the cable money is going to be a hard sell. It will be interesting to see what they come up with. I thought the fees for Time warner and Comcast were like $2/month for cablecard. Where are you getting this "pay almost twice" estimate. Is there a table somewhere of cableco charges for CC?

[ZeoTiVo]

I thought the fees for Time warner and Comcast were like $2/month for cablecard. Where are you getting this "pay almost twice" estimate. Is there a table somewhere of cableco charges for CC?

he was referring to the TiVo monthly fee vs the Cable co DVR fee

[Bierboy]

Survey (http://www.tivoblog.com/archives/2006/01/09/how-much-will-you-pay-for-a-series3-tivo/) already underway.

[rainwater]

I thought the fees for Time warner and Comcast were like $2/month for cablecard. Where are you getting this "pay almost twice" estimate. Is there a table somewhere of cableco charges for CC?

Well, my cable co. charges $2.99 for each cable card (last I checked). So thats $6+$12.95. I currently also pay $9 for my Moxi box. So it will be almost twice as much.

As for Zeo saying you have to pay extra for the box and for the digital cable, that is somewhat true. I pay for digital cable and the moxi box (includes dvr fee). Even with a cablecard you will still be paying for digital cable as well so that is not a factor. Like I said, I think it will be a hard sell to get users to pay a lot for this box given the current monthly fees associated with it.

[ChuckyBox]

Until we know more about the guts of this puppy, it is impossible to speculate.

Actually, until we know more about the guts of this puppy, all we can do is speculate.

But, if you were to visit TiVo HQ, and during your visit a small fire were to start in a wastebasket, and unbeknownst to you during the confusion one of the Series 3 prototypes were to accidentally fall into your shoulder bag, and upon arriving home the box were to fall out of your bag, causing the top to pop off directly in front of your web cam, well, then we might have something to go on. (Upon realizing what had happened, you would, of course, rush the box back to TiVo and apologize profusely for the perfectly-understandable accident. I'm sure they'd forgive you and you'd all go out for a beer and laugh about the whole thing.) I'm not saying that it should happen, just that it could happen. :D

[Justin Thyme]

Well, speculate in the sense of making educated guesses. It is more in the province of making wild ass/ crackpot guesses- something that I personally relish since I am not constrained much by reality. If it is safe to assume this is a broadcom design, there is probably not a huge list of candidate chips, and we could have some fun doing an armchair design of the S3.

I really think most folks would tune out at the first mention of data busses and transfer speeds...

[pkscout]

$1,300 including the lifetime. That would make it the same hardware cost as the HD-250 when I bought it, and even using it only two years (or two years by the time I get rid of it), it was *totally* worth $500 a year (or $42 a month).

Less would be nice, but you asked what price I would pay for one, and $1,300 is my answer. ;)

[ChuckyBox]

Like I said, I think it will be a hard sell to get users to pay a lot for this box given the current monthly fees associated with it.

I've said it elsewhere, but I'll repeat it here: TiVo's target market for this box (at least initially) is the high-end home theater consumer who is willing to pay for the best. The box will offer features not found on cable DVRs, and these consumers will not balk at the price or the monthly fee in order to get these features.

If you doubt me, visit the "TiVo CEO webcast" thread in this forum and you can listen to Tom Rogers say it.

[beejay]

But, if you were to visit TiVo HQ, and during your visit a small fire were to start in a wastebasket, and unbeknownst to you during the confusion one of the Series 3 prototypes were to accidentally fall into your shoulder bag ... :D

I suspect if I had that unfortunate "accident" my son would find the new electronic equipment and decide to hook it up to see what it would do... ;)

[rainwater]

I've said it elsewhere, but I'll repeat it here: TiVo's target market for this box (at least initially) is the high-end home theater consumer who is willing to pay for the best. The box will offer features not found on cable DVRs, and these consumers will not balk at the price or the monthly fee in order to get these features.

If you doubt me, visit the "TiVo CEO webcast" thread in this forum and you can listen to Tom Rogers say it.

I don't disagree with that at all. However, TiVo hasn't it made it clear what its future holds. Will they stop selling S2 boxes solely in favor of S3 boxes, etc? None of this is known as of now.

All I am saying is it is going to be a hard sell getting people to use these S3 TiVos instead of a cable company DVR (depending on what cable company dvr they are offered). The complexity involved plus the total cost may outweight the usability.

[HDTiVo]

Answer to OP: $0 and $18.95/mo

This would save $10.50/mo for replacing two HD STBs & remotes, but add $5/mo for two cable cards. Net I pay $13.45/mo extra for a HD DVR with TiVo service.

BTW my cable co is replacing analog boxes with HDs and charging the same price as before. So Digital (a few basic channels) and HD (a few channels) are now "free" additions vs analog cable. Imagine what that is going to do to HDTV sales, etal.

[headroll]

If the unit costs between $500 and $800, I'll buy two w/ lifetime. Any more than that, I'll stick with one unit.

Best thing for me is that with :

1) the size of the HD, and
2) Dual Tuner support

I can replace two Series2 boxes that are hooked into the same TV.

I would pay 500-600 for the box (as presently spec'ed). Would love to transfer Lifetime as well.

-Roll

[nyjklein]

I would be very (pleasantly) surprised to see this priced anywhere below about $700 without the subscription. The only somehat comparable thing currently available (and recently discontinued) is the Sony DHG-HDD250. It is a single CC 1.0 box. Only records one show at a time and depends on the less than spectacular TVGOS guide service. This box was going for $800 until very recently. Now that it's discontinued you can get it for around $600.

So to expect the S3 with all the additional capability, multi-tuner, multistream CC and all the TiVo software niceties for anything less seems to be nothing but extreme wishful thinking.

[mick66]

I'd pay $400 after any rebate, but if they offered a lifetime transfer from my old S1, I'd pay up to $600. If the initial cost is more than that I can easily wait a little while for the price to drop.

[ChuckyBox]

BTW my cable co is replacing analog boxes with HDs and charging the same price as before. So Digital (a few basic channels) and HD (a few channels) are now "free" additions vs analog cable. Imagine what that is going to do to HDTV sales, etal.

What cable company is this and how do I get to the planet you live on? My cable co (Charter) charges for everything. Everything. You want cable? You pay. Expanded basic? Pay more. Digital? More. Premium channels? More. Internet? More. DVR? More. HD? More. Despite the fact that I have a fairly high level of digital service, premium channels, and high-speed internet, it would cost me around $10 per month more to get a few HD channels. The DVR (Moxi) would be $11.99/month more. I could be paying these guys $150/month and I still wouldn't have everything they offered.

[mick66]

So to expect the S3 with all the additional capability, multi-tuner, multistream CC and all the TiVo software niceties for anything less seems to be nothing but extreme wishful thinking.

But the question is 'what would you pay?' not 'what do think the dang thing will cost?'

[VinceA]

I'm expecting the unit to cost $499-$799 before taxes & subscription costs. At that price I'll get one to replace one of my S2's but I'll wait for a big price drop after Q1 or Q2 2007 to replace the other two S2's

[mgar]

I would be willing to pay extra for a Series 3 standalone box. To me, the TiVo that can record over the air HD and is independent from the Cable company except for the cable card is worth extra money. Also, according to the Comcast web site, there is no additional charge for a cable card.

[Parkmad]

I would pay $1000-1200 if it was ready today.
I would pay $800 if it's ready in 6 months and $600 if it's ready in a year.

That's based on the reverse time value-interest level theory. :)

[Bierboy]

...The only somehat comparable thing currently available (and recently discontinued) is the Sony DHG-HDD250. It is a single CC 1.0 box. Only records one show at a time and depends on the less than spectacular TVGOS guide service. This box was going for $800 until very recently. Now that it's discontinued you can get it for around $600...Actually $499 at BB and lower at some other places. I suspect they're clearing them out. I picked one up last month for that price to tide me over until TiVo ships their new Series 3 SA unit. Then it's off to eBay...

[MickeS]

I will not buy one if it's more than $200 (and assuimg I can pay $6.95 monthly fee for it since I have a S2 TiVo already). I have no need for a HD device, don't need digital cable, and all the other stuff. Only thing I want that I don't have now is dual tuner, but I'm not willing to pay hundreds of dollars for it.

[mgar]

That clinking sound you can hear is me saving my pennies so that I can buy a Series 3 and a Samsung 50" HDTV (DLP) for Christmas.

[bidger]

Seeing the prices bandied about here, I believe a lot of folks are going to be doing without a S3 HD-TiVo if they're in any way serious about what they expect the release price to be.

[HDTiVo]

What cable company is this and how do I get to the planet you live on? My cable co (Charter) charges for everything. Everything. You want cable? You pay. Expanded basic? Pay more. Digital? More. Premium channels? More. Internet? More. DVR? More. HD? More. Despite the fact that I have a fairly high level of digital service, premium channels, and high-speed internet, it would cost me around $10 per month more to get a few HD channels. The DVR (Moxi) would be $11.99/month more. I could be paying these guys $150/month and I still wouldn't have everything they offered.
Cablevision, Bronx
Two HD STBs, remotes, "Family Cable" (the usual full line of analog cable CNN, MTV, SPIKE, BRAVO, MSG, ESPN, YES...) and now those few digital tier and HDs (about 8 or 10, incl ESPNHD, MSGHD, YESHD) all cost the same $62/mo analog "Family" cost before the HD boxes were given out.

In my case, paying $10 more would get me a DVR; an S3 saves $5.50/mo on equipment cost to Cablevision; so whatever the S3 costs above $0 + $15.50/mo is the premium I pay to have the S3 over the cable DVR. The $0+18.95 I said I'd pay TiVo translates to $3.45 premium. I am sure I'd pay more than that; I'll say $5/mo.

This illustrates the diverse competition TiVo is going to face. People like you are paying $21 or $31 extra per month over analog for HD w/ DVR. I am at $10. Whatever TiVo charges, there will be big differences from market to market in their price premium over the cable alternative.

More and more, cable cos. will be offering the kind of pricing I experience. People like you will have even better pricing. Seven months from now when the S3 is out its price window across America may be much narrower.

----

P.S. Let me add the other angle from my case. I can keep my S2 hooked up to the HD box for $6.95/mo giving me TiVo w/o HD. To add HD (S3) to that if I pay $18.95/mo to TiVo, less $6.95/mo and $5.50/mo, thats $6.50/mo net to add HD recording. At this point I place little enough value on HD recording to say $6.50 is about right - a luxury even - for me.

----

Here's another wrinkle. I have not really considered the value of dual tuner in the SD DVR (S2) to HD DVR (S3) case. I can have dual tuner with 2 S2s and indeed I do, and pay another $6.95/mo, changing the cost advantage towards the S3. However, the 2 S2s give me dual location as well as dual tuner. Dual location has significant value, probably above $6.95/mo to me. To match this I need 2 S3s with one CC each. So the S3 math worsens as a result.

[m_jonis]

$500 and no more than $6.95/month (I have multiple Tivos)

given that it'll cost me $3.50/month extra for the cable cards (for dual tuner).

Although, I suppose that if they support recording from OTA AND Cable Card at the same time, i could go that route.

Plus then I'll have to fart around with running even more cable to the TV (two cables instead of one).

[vman41]

I'm expecting the unit to cost $499-$799 before taxes & subscription costs. At that price I'll get one to replace one of my S2's but I'll wait for a big price drop after Q1 or Q2 2007 to replace the other two S2's

If it has dual recording streams, you can replace 2 Ss with 1 box and an external drive (if you are using 1 TV).

[vman41]

I'd say $800 for the series 3 as talked about. I won't believe it exists as a product until I can actually place an order for one.

[HDTiVo]

TivoPony said the S3 would not be $50. I do understand that a 250GB drive really is minimum for an HD DVR, and historically the price of those drives have forced such dvrs up into the ranges being discussed. However, the prices of these drives has plummetted, so I am questioning why people are assuming super high price points.
I see extra costs there, sure. There are some neat new chips being used. But will the chip count be significantly higher, and does $10 more for two of the key chips mean that the entire box has a manufacturing cost that is 4X the S2?
Until we know more about the guts of this puppy, it is impossible to speculate. I just see the possibility that S3 architecture machines could be sold at a very low price point.
This is the same thing I am doing in my mind. Some analog pieces are subtracted from the S2, saving a few dollars and other things are added. The S3 is designed with chips and circuits 2-3 years down the road from the S2. I see no evidence that the ATSC/NTSC tuners or CC slot/interfaces, which are in several million devices per year now, cost large amounts of money. I can come up with reasonable assumptions that put the hardware cost at the retail level $200 above the S2.

[nhaigh]

I'd pay $1000 but I beginning to suspect I may not need to pay anything!!!!!

Based on the information we have from TiVo this box will be available second half of 2006. Comcast have been saying their version will be available mid 2006 so I guess if that arrives first anyone who can get Comcast will get the free one and TiVo's market will dwindle to Non-Comcast cable systems that have good HD offerings - a very niche market I suspect.

[Alfred Lanning]

Is it beyond belief that the talk of the Comcast TiVo would drive sales of the S3 in areas where Comcast isn't available? There might actually be a marketing plan here.

Edit: to stay on subject, 4 to 5 hundred.

[samo]

I would be very (pleasantly) surprised to see this priced anywhere below about $700 without the subscription. The only somehat comparable thing currently available (and recently discontinued) is the Sony DHG-HDD250. It is a single CC 1.0 box. Only records one show at a time and depends on the less than spectacular TVGOS guide service. This box was going for $800 until very recently. Now that it's discontinued you can get it for around $600.

So to expect the S3 with all the additional capability, multi-tuner, multistream CC and all the TiVo software niceties for anything less seems to be nothing but extreme wishful thinking.
Agree. My guess, initial price tag of $999. Will I buy one? No. I don't have HD TV right now, but I'm seriously considering getting 65" Sharp LCD. It costs a fair amount of change, so cost of the DVR will be secondary consideration. But I still don't see anything in Series 3 that would make me wait till end of the year to get a DVR. I have 3 choices for HD content - Dish, DirecTV and Comcast. All of them have a DVR I can get NOW. I'll be making my decision based on available content, not the DVR.

[ChuckyBox]

I'd pay $1000 but I beginning to suspect I may not need to pay anything!!!!!

Based on the information we have from TiVo this box will be available second half of 2006. Comcast have been saying their version will be available mid 2006 so I guess if that arrives first anyone who can get Comcast will get the free one...

While the Comcast box will have a TiVo interface and some of TiVo's premium features, it won't be the same box or have all the same features. Some of these features won't matter to many people, but some will. For example, the Series 3 has a bigger hard drive with expandable storage, OTA tuner (which, I've just been assured in another thread, you can use in combination with your cable input), the ability to download content from the internet, etc. The exact feature set of each won't be known until the products are available, but it is safe to assume that the Series 3 will be qualitatively better. Whether or not that will justify the added expense will depend on the consumer. If the Comcast offering gives you everything you want then, yes, you're going to get a very nice system without having to buy the box.


...and TiVo's market will dwindle to Non-Comcast cable systems that have good HD offerings - a very niche market I suspect.

I'm not sure why you think that. Comcast is big, but it is only about 30% of the US cable market. There is plenty of room in the market for this box completely outside of Comcast. Plus the Comcast subs who will want it anyway. Plus all of the analog subs who will want it for the dual tuners and/or the OTA HD capability. Plus all of the existing TiVo subs who will upgrade just because they can.

[Dan203]

I'm probably going to end up buying two regardless of the price. However I'd love to see them in the $500-$600 range. :)

Dan

[bwhaler]

I'd pay around 500 bucks.

I am really looking forward to the Series 3.

[nyjklein]

But the question is 'what would you pay?' not 'what do think the dang thing will cost?'

Well, I'd probably pay whatever they're asking ;) . But I'd like to see it at around $500-$600.

[Bierboy]

Well, I'd probably pay whatever they're asking ;) . But I'd like to see it at around $500-$600.Exactly...

[nhaigh]

While the Comcast box will have a TiVo interface and some of TiVo's premium features, it won't be the same box or have all the same features. Some of these features won't matter to many people, but some will. For example, the Series 3 has a bigger hard drive with expandable storage, OTA tuner (which, I've just been assured in another thread, you can use in combination with your cable input), the ability to download content from the internet, etc. The exact feature set of each won't be known until the products are available, but it is safe to assume that the Series 3 will be qualitatively better. Whether or not that will justify the added expense will depend on the consumer. If the Comcast offering gives you everything you want then, yes, you're going to get a very nice system without having to buy the box.

I'm not sure why you think that. Comcast is big, but it is only about 30% of the US cable market. There is plenty of room in the market for this box completely outside of Comcast. Plus the Comcast subs who will want it anyway. Plus all of the analog subs who will want it for the dual tuners and/or the OTA HD capability. Plus all of the existing TiVo subs who will upgrade just because they can.

Bigger Hard Drive - I'd probably get two of them so that would be covered off somewhat.

Internet Downloads etc - I'll get a Series 2 for that and network it in. They are cheap and will probably do everything the Series 3 will in that respect.

Series 3 better Quality - surely both boxes will be simply receiving the MPEG2 data and saving it. How will one be significantly better than the other. Even so if the quality going to be $500-$1000 better - I expect not.

Comcast is only 30% of the market. I have no idea but 30% of your market sounds like at lot. I wouldn't be comfortable if my business just blew off 30% of its market.

All in all I honestly beleive that TiVo not bringing this box out earlier this year is going to be a problem for them. I asked the sales guy in Best Buy this morning if he Knew when it would be here and he told me he didn't even know one was due but has had a lot of people asking the question in the last few days. I really think TiVo sales will be hit buy people waiting for the Series Three. I'm one and I have read a lot of people here are the same. TiVo doesn't have the luxury of being able to have a year with slow sales and the hope a box is going to be here soon. They are simply not that robust finacially.

Everybody who waits is six months or more lost subscription. Many will give up and go ge HD by another means that is available today. Everyone who goes Comcast beacuse they didn't get the Series Three will be lost high value subscription revenue for good.

[ChuckyBox]

Internet Downloads etc - I'll get a Series 2 for that and network it in. They are cheap and will probably do everything the Series 3 will in that respect.
The Series 2 won't play back MPEG4, HD, or 5/6/7.1 sound. The Series 3 will almost certainly have a faster processor, more memory, etc., that will make some features work better -- like interactive applications, games, searches, etc.


Series 3 better Quality - surely both boxes will be simply receiving the MPEG2 data and saving it. How will one be significantly better than the other. Even so if the quality going to be $500-$1000 better - I expect not.
I didn't mean picture quality, I meant that if you list the features side-by-side, the Series 3 will most likely have the advantage. Consumers will have to decide for themselves if the features warrant the expense -- just like they do with everything they buy.

Comcast is only 30% of the market. I have no idea but 30% of your market sounds like at lot.
I was responding to your statement that the non-Comcast HD market was "niche." Relative to a whole market, 70% isn't niche.

All in all I honestly beleive that TiVo not bringing this box out earlier this year is going to be a problem for them.

You're assuming that they could bring it out earlier if they wanted to.

All in all, I don't think a few months is going to make all that much difference in a market that is projected to grow as much as the DVR market over the next several years. The Series 3 is a high-end product targeted to a small subset of the market. The bulk of TiVo's subscription growth for the foreseeable future will come from the Series 2.

[Atomike]

Look at what the Cable companies are doing. Are they charging $800 for a DVR? No. For Tivo to stay in the market - they need to be at the market price point.

Free Box. $300 Lifetime Service.

[rainwater]

Look at what the Cable companies are doing. Are they charging $800 for a DVR? No. For Tivo to stay in the market - they need to be at the market price point.

Free Box. $300 Lifetime Service.

That will never happen. They would never get the money back in the cost of the box plus the cost of service. If they do anything it will be with monthly fees. They would rather you pay each month than buy lifetime.

[pkscout]

Look at what the Cable companies are doing. Are they charging $800 for a DVR? No. For Tivo to stay in the market - they need to be at the market price point.

Free Box. $300 Lifetime Service.

Ah yes, the imfamous, "they can sell the box at a loss and make it up in volume" argument. Until TiVo can get out of the hardware business, they probably can't afford to subsidize the hardware costs (unlike MS who is losing around $150 on every XBox 360). They have to break even on the hardware so that they can make money on subscriptions.

I guess if they charged $50 a month for the service then they could give the hardware away. Of course then everyone would complain that the subscription is 10 times as expensive as the cable companies charge for DVRs.

[DrStrange]

Look at what the Cable companies are doing. Are they charging $800 for a DVR? No. For Tivo to stay in the market - they need to be at the market price point.

Free Box. $300 Lifetime Service.
Ok, what the cable companies charge certainly affects Tivo. But to say Tivo should match it completely misses some key facts about how the cable companies can lease boxes with no upfront costs. Unlike Tivo, cable companies don't survive on their DVR business. They live off their content delivery business. DVRs are just a means to increase customer retention for their content service, which subsidizes the DVR cost, NOT a profit center in and of themselves.

Tivo doesn't have that luxury. They have no other business that can subsidize DVR sales. DVRs are all they do, so they have to sell them at a profit, or get partnerships with MSOs like DirecTV and Comcast.

There's also the fact that MSOs keep the DVRs and can amortize their cost over multiple owners even if you don't use it for very long. Also most MSO DVRs completely and utterly suck, although most people who haven't seen Tivo in action might not realize how badly (which is what DirecTV is apparently banking on with the widely panned R15, according to a recent quote from them).

Tivo may never enjoy the kind of penetration MSO DVRs will but DirecTVs R15 has demonstrated that making a good DVR is not easy, even when you've had the market leader to learn from for five years. If the R15 and the Explorer 8000 are typical of the what a free DVR will be, there will be people happy to pay for a good one.

[d_anders]

Look at what the Cable companies are doing. Are they charging $800 for a DVR? No. For Tivo to stay in the market - they need to be at the market price point.

Free Box. $300 Lifetime Service.

This is the right sentiment.

Are the majority of you just nuts?

Given this type of reaction, I bet you anything that TiVo may offer an "early-buy" beta program for you for the luxury of paying $500-$800 for a unit, then they can offer the unit for $199 + subs for the rest of the world a month later.

If TiVo thinks they can milk out a normal early adopter marketing curve on this box, they are sadly mistaken.

If TiVo wants to succeed, they need to offer these units for almost free and then offer a $16.99 a month sub program...they will scream off the shelves.

If they offer the hardware for $500+, plus subs, forget it. They'll lose an opportunity that they are already coming late too.

[Bierboy]

This is the right sentiment.

Are the majority of you just nuts?

Given this type of reaction, I bet you anything that TiVo may offer an "early-buy" beta program for you for the luxury of paying $500-$800 for a unit, then they can offer the unit for $199 + subs for the rest of the world a month later.

If TiVo thinks they can milk out a normal early adopter marketing curve on this box, they are sadly mistaken.

If TiVo wants to succeed, they need to offer these units for almost free and then offer a $16.99 a month sub program...they will scream off the shelves.

If they offer the hardware for $500+, plus subs, forget it. They'll lose an opportunity that they are already coming late too.Did you even read the post above yours?

[MickeS]

Seeing the prices bandied about here, I believe a lot of folks are going to be doing without a S3 HD-TiVo if they're in any way serious about what they expect the release price to be.

Yes, and? The question in the thread is "What would you pay", not "How much will S3 cost".

It's not like the S2 will all of a sudden stop working, and a lot of people don't care enough about HD to pay a premium. not much more complicated than that.

[classicsat]

If the chips were such as I could be in a position to enjoy an S3 DVR, as Demo at CES:

I think I would pay *699-899 right away, and expect $150 or so drop by the winter holiday buying season, and level off somewhere around the middle to end of next year.

[lauerpic]

I would pay several hundred for the box plus the lifetime subscription. I have one S2 right now with a lifetime subscription. I've been waiting for the S3 to come out, but finally couldn't wait anymore. So, I got one from Time Warner Cable and am renting it for about $7 per month (or something like that). I really dislike the cable co.'s dvr though. As soon as Tivo has a S3 for around $300 (plus the cost of the lifetime subscription), I will switch over to it in a heartbeat.

Until then though, I'm not going to "waste" money on another S2 when what I want is an S3.

[jag128]

I'd prob pay up to $350, but I have to say Tivo better not price this too high or all hopes of fending off the competition will be crushed. I have a few friends who have HD tvs and Series 2, and they are very close to tossing the box for a cable company's HD DVR.

I have tried to urge them to hold out for T Series 3, but it's a no brainer for them:
1) HD DVR is out now. Has multi-tuner. Has HD. No additional cost (and is cheaper than what they currently pay for Series 2 service). No channel-changing problems because no IR /Serial connection is needed. Fewer boxes to deal with around the TV.

2) Tivo Series 3 is not even scheduled for release yet. When it does come out, it will be VERY hard to get the lost customers back, especially if there is a huge cost to switch from free DVR to expensive Tivo.

Tivo, if you're listening, dont price yourself out of the marketplace! It's ok to brand yourself as the elite product, but at a high price (> $400) I fear Tivo Series 3 will land in the same ballpark as the current High Def DVRs already on the marketplace (Sony has one... know anyone who bought that?)

[Atomike]

Did you even read the post above yours?

I'm sure he did - and simply dismissed the faulty logic they contain. Look, I know and understand what you guys are saying. I used to work at a Cable Company. But to say that Tivo can charge more than $300 for a box and still expect monthly payments is just silly.

Look, if you want to pay $800 for a Tivo, be my guest. But you could go out, buy computer parts, an OEM operating system, DVR software, an HD card, and still spend around (or less than) $500 bucks. And you don't even have your own factory in Taiwan or wherever. Please don't point out how awful other PVR software is compared to Tivo. yada yada yada. That's not my point. I'm just pointing out hardware costs and wondering why people would so-obviously overpay.

Math is a very under-studied art.

[HDTiVo]

I'm sure he did - and simply dismissed the faulty logic they contain. Look, I know and understand what you guys are saying. I used to work at a Cable Company. But to say that Tivo can charge more than $300 for a box and still expect monthly payments is just silly.

Look, if you want to pay $800 for a Tivo, be my guest. But you could go out, buy computer parts, an OEM operating system, DVR software, an HD card, and still spend around (or less than) $500 bucks. And you don't even have your own factory in Taiwan or wherever. Please don't point out how awful other PVR software is compared to Tivo. yada yada yada. That's not my point. I'm just pointing out hardware costs and wondering why people would so-obviously overpay.

Math is a very under-studied art.
TiVo's own research in recent months has shown great resistence to paying an up front price for the box plus a further subscription fee. They've found that a zero box cost and higher (than we pay) sub fee greatly increases sales. This is something they are very interested in pursuing as a future pricing strategy.

With that in mind, but knowing the HD consumer still expects to pay alot, a moderate box price and higher sub fee is a likely and wise strategy.

TiVo intends to garner even more per subscriber related revenue through advertising and sales using the newer download and "&more" features. This feeds into the low box price/many subscriber plan.

[Justin Thyme]

I wonder if Sony would loss lead a Tivo S3/ Blu-Ray disk bundle- in order to give impression of further breadth of support among trend setting CE companies. BD disk player prices seem to be starting at the low $1000's, and going up to $1800. Bundled with a T3, that would be THE high end AV component for theater enthusiasts.

Possibly the Tivo processor could hand the interactive BD features (BD-J) and be a full profile BD player. On the other hand, maybe those BD-J features are will be no different than the "angle" button of HD DVDs.

'Course it would alienate the heck out of MS, but maybe they need a reminder they need to throw Tivo more bones or these kinds of misunderstandings are liable to become more frequent.

[pkscout]

Look, if you want to pay $800 for a Tivo, be my guest. But you could go out, buy computer parts, an OEM operating system, DVR software, an HD card, and still spend around (or less than) $500 bucks. And you don't even have your own factory in Taiwan or wherever. Please don't point out how awful other PVR software is compared to Tivo. yada yada yada. That's not my point. I'm just pointing out hardware costs and wondering why people would so-obviously overpay.

I'm wondering if you could post a price list for these parts, as I've been doing that exact research. To get a MythTV box that has 2 OTA ATSC tuners and 2 analog cable tuners with enough horse power to play HD and quiet enough to put in the living room I'm at about $1,500. Oh, and I'd love a link to a cablecard implementation available for MythTV. There are the ATI cablecard boxes announced at CES that MS demoed, but I haven't seen prices on those.

Please show me how you can do what TiVo does for $500.

[Gregor]

Hmmm...Interesting that most everyone on this thread is focusing on the hardware costs here and not the cost of the hardware development and software development costs here.

The box itself is going to cost something for just the parts, but the development for the hardware and software costs something as well, not to mention any licensing that would have to be paid for, too.

The cable companies have the advantage of size, afaik, the Motorola 6412 dual tuner HD box is flying off the shelves as fast as they can be made, and the advantage that most of their customers have never seen a TiVo, so any DVR software looks pretty good. Furthermore, I doubt any cable company is making money on them, their other businesses support this loss leader.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Comcast continue to charge $10 for the non-tivo, and $15 or $20 for the Tivo model, as some indications are that the Tivo model will be the 'premium' offering, not a replacement for the current software. In any case, 120 gig is too small to be of much use to me with a DVR, so I'll be buying a Tivo HD unit as soon as I can get my grubby paws on one. :)

[HDTiVo]

Hmmm...Interesting that most everyone on this thread is focusing on the hardware costs here and not the cost of the hardware development and software development costs here.

The box itself is going to cost something for just the parts, but the development for the hardware and software costs something as well, not to mention any licensing that would have to be paid for, too.

Talking about prices observed at retail is a good way of covering this.

[ellinj]

Based on the current equivalent hardware I would probably be willing to pay around $700 for a S3, not including rebate or sub. I just paid $499 for my HD Sony DVR, it only has one tuner and a crappy guide. $200 for decent software and another tuner seams reasonable to me.

[DrStrange]

But you could go out, buy computer parts, an OEM operating system, DVR software, an HD card, and still spend around (or less than) $500 bucks. And you don't even have your own factory in Taiwan or wherever.
But I have my time. You're talking about a good chunk of labor on my part.
Please don't point out how awful other PVR software is compared to Tivo. yada yada yada. That's not my point.
It may not be your point, but it's certain a point. You can't just blow off the quality of the software as being worth $0, anymore than you can dismiss the cost of the time and trouble it would take to build my own DVR from parts. You may not mind spending a few days or weeks researching hardware, ensuring compatibility, ordering parts, building, loading, installing, configuring, and debugging only to end up with a DVR that isn't as easy to use or doesn't work as well as Tivo, but you're not typical. Most people would prefer to spend their time on things other than building a sub-standard DVR. Most people flat out don't have the time or skills to do this at all, even if they had the inclination.
I'm just pointing out hardware costs and wondering why people would so-obviously overpay.
It's also cheaper to do your own plumbing or repair your own transmission. Are people who use plumbers or mechanics just as baffling to you?

[Heinrich]

Hey guys!! Great topic. I'm a bit confused though, just last night as I was catching up on some of the TV I like but am not quite so deeply enamored with (Smallville) I was trying to catch up on Series 3 Tivo. I have tremendously enjoyed my DirecTivos through the years. In fact, when I moved to my new condo, it was pure hell and months and hours of work getting DirecTV installed. The Comcast HD DVR was a pure piece of crap, and that's being extremely polite. PM me if you want some more direct honesty about that piece of crap ;)

Anyway, the installation here has been an utter and total complete nightmare. It took literally about 13 visits and about 9 hours of cell phone calls. Issues included splitting my work order across 2 orders, wrong paperwork, wrong equipment, and a steep 3rd floor roof that some were afraid of.

NOW I see that Comcast is going to have Series 3 and not DirecTV. I had thought all along that Series 3 was going to be produced as a standalone unit that would work on cable or DirecTV.

This article last night completely confused me again. Tivo walked away from Comcast and now will produce a standalone Comcast only tivo?

http://www.pvrblog.com/pvr/2005/01/tivo_walked_awa.html

[TheRatPatrol]

Anyone know if this new unit can record an OTA HD signal without having to subscribe to cable? If so, I'd pay $500.00 for it. I would get one to record OTA HD locals since the majority of stuff I record is from network TV. Think it will still have 30 second skip?

[ChuckyBox]

NOW I see that Comcast is going to have Series 3 and not DirecTV. I had thought all along that Series 3 was going to be produced as a standalone unit that would work on cable or DirecTV.

This article last night completely confused me again. Tivo walked away from Comcast and now will produce a standalone Comcast only tivo?

http://www.pvrblog.com/pvr/2005/01/tivo_walked_awa.html

That article is one year old. TiVo and Comcast have an agreement for TiVo to provide the TiVo software on top of Comcast's existing Motorola DVRs. The Series 3 is not part of that deal. The Series 3 is TiVo's high-end HD, cable-ready, standalone DVR of the future. Both the Comcast TiVo rollout and the Series 3 are expected in the second half of the year. But, again, they are unrelated to one another except insofar as they both provide TiVo features and the TiVo interface.

[ChuckyBox]

Anyone know if this new unit can record an OTA HD signal without having to subscribe to cable? If so, I'd pay $500.00 for it. I would get one to record OTA HD locals since the majority of stuff I record is from network TV. Think it will still have 30 second skip?

Yes, it can. It has an antenna input as well as a cable input, and the necessary tuners to do the job.

My guess is that is will still have the 30-second skip available, but we won't know for sure until someone gets to try out the final product.

[Bierboy]

Based on the current equivalent hardware I would probably be willing to pay around $700 for a S3, not including rebate or sub. I just paid $499 for my HD Sony DVR, it only has one tuner and a crappy guide. $200 for decent software and another tuner seams reasonable to me.I assume you mean $200 more for decent software and another tuner? I'm in the same boat as you; picked up the Sony to tide me over until TiVo releases its series 3.

[tgibbs]

$1,300 including the lifetime. That would make it the same hardware cost as the HD-250 when I bought it, and even using it only two years (or two years by the time I get rid of it), it was *totally* worth $500 a year (or $42 a month).

Less would be nice, but you asked what price I would pay for one, and $1,300 is my answer. ;)

As another 10-250 owner, I agree with that analysis. Cheaper is better, of course, but I'd be willing to pay that much (and presumably I could still get a few bucks for my upgraded 10-250)

[HDTiVo]

I assume you mean $200 more for decent software and another tuner? I'm in the same boat as you; picked up the Sony to tide me over until TiVo releases its series 3.
Is there any reason to buy the Sony box IF you can rent a cable DVR while waiting for S3?

[Bierboy]

Is there any reason to buy the Sony box IF you can rent a cable DVR while waiting for S3?I'd have to pay upwards of 70-80 bucks more per month for the updgraded cable service, digital box rental and HD DVR rental. No thanks. Plus, I can eBay the Sony when the Series 3 comes out. I refuse to pay our lousy cable company any more than the bare minimum I am paying now.

[HDTiVo]

I'd have to pay upwards of 70-80 bucks more per month for the updgraded cable service, digital box rental and HD DVR rental. No thanks. Plus, I can eBay the Sony when the Series 3 comes out. I refuse to pay our lousy cable company any more than the bare minimum I am paying now.
OK, you are talking about recording only OTA HD.

[Justin Thyme]

Enough speculation.

Tivo should put serial #1 of the S3 series on ebay (Tivo donates profit to charity).

I think bidding would easily go over 10K.

[Bierboy]

OK, you are talking about recording only OTA HD.No, I am talking about recording SD cable and SD and HD OTA.

[Heinrich]

That article is one year old. TiVo and Comcast have an agreement for TiVo to provide the TiVo software on top of Comcast's existing Motorola DVRs. The Series 3 is not part of that deal. The Series 3 is TiVo's high-end HD, cable-ready, standalone DVR of the future. Both the Comcast TiVo rollout and the Series 3 are expected in the second half of the year. But, again, they are unrelated to one another except insofar as they both provide TiVo features and the TiVo interface.

Thanks, makes good sense. So do we know if Series 3 compatible with either DirecTV MPEG-2 or MPEG-4? Or are we facing the end of Tivo / DirecTV forever and ever ahmen with the HR10-250 and other models from the last year or so.

[tgibbs]

Thanks, makes good sense. So do we know if Series 3 compatible with either DirecTV MPEG-2 or MPEG-4? Or are we facing the end of Tivo / DirecTV forever and ever ahmen with the HR10-250 and other models from the last year or so.

It's up to DirecTV. There is no required open standard like the Cable Card for satellite, so TiVo cannot do this unilaterally. TiVo would need authorization from DirecTV to produce a DirecTV version of Series 3 or an updated MPEG-4 version of the 10-250. So far, DirecTV seems to be moving in the direction of providing their on MPEG-4 compatible DVR instead of going with a TiVo solution. Considering that DirecTV has let their TiVos fall well behind the standalone systems with respect to features like Tivo2Go, I am not optimistic.

As far as I know, all cable and broadcast TV is going to remain MPEG-2, so I'd be surprised if TiVo includes MPEG-4 in the Series 3.

[ChuckyBox]

Thanks, makes good sense. So do we know if Series 3 compatible with either DirecTV MPEG-2 or MPEG-4? Or are we facing the end of Tivo / DirecTV forever and ever ahmen with the HR10-250 and other models from the last year or so.

For reasons discussed in depth in a couple of other threads on this topic, the Series 3 will not work with satellite TV. (The reasons have to do with technology, price, and politics.) With DTV selling their own DVRs, and TiVo offering to help cable companies take back DTV subs, I don't think the relationship will be renewed. If you have a DirecTiVo now, or can get one in the next couple of months, it will probably continue to work for some time. But you'll likely never get the really cool new TiVo features, nor will you get a replacement from DTV if your box dies -- you'll get the new (non-TiVo) hardware.

[tgibbs]

I see that some news reports indicate that the Series 3 will record in MPEG-2, but will be capable of playing back MPEG-4. Perhaps TiVo has chosen to include this in case cable companies start going to MPEG-4.

[Stormspace]

For me at any price the Series 3 would need to be compatible with the series 2 on networking functions, including the ability to transfer HD programming perhaps as a best quality recording. However with all of the posters here stating that they would sell their first born to get one (JK) it's not very bloody likely the price will be reasonable until these people are sated. LOL!

[tgibbs]

For me at any price the Series 3 would need to be compatible with the series 2 on networking functions, including the ability to transfer HD programming perhaps as a best quality recording.

I think this is fairly unlikely. According to TiVo's rep at the show, it will not recode digital to lower resolution, although it will output at any desired resolution. So to do what you describe, you'd probably have to hook it directly to the input of your series 2, play a show back at 480i, and let the series 2 re-digitize it.

[Stormspace]

I think this is fairly unlikely. According to TiVo's rep at the show, it will not recode digital to lower resolution, although it will output at any desired resolution. So to do what you describe, you'd probably have to hook it directly to the input of your series 2, play a show back at 480i, and let the series 2 re-digitize it.

This doesn't make sense to me. It can down convert for a screen but not stream to another box. Prolly a hardware thing. Oh well, my Series 2's work fine enough already.

[Jonathan_S]

This doesn't make sense to me. It can down convert for a screen but not stream to another box. Prolly a hardware thing. Oh well, my Series 2's work fine enough already.Yep. It's a hardware thing. The chip doing video output can output both digital HD and analog SD signals. However to down-convert and send to a series 2 you need a digital mpeg2 SD signals.

There are only two ways to do that. Either a very CPU intensive digital down-conversion. (Which would require either a powerful CPU or a lot of time to do.) Or internally route the analog SD output of the video decoder into one of the two mpeg encoders. (Which is a digital to analog to digital process, which will lower video quality more than necessary; and will tie up one of the two encoders for the length of the show, limiting the unit to only recording from up to one SD source while running the downconvert.)

[ZeoTiVo]

Thanks, makes good sense. So do we know if Series 3 compatible with either DirecTV MPEG-2 or MPEG-4? Or are we facing the end of Tivo / DirecTV forever and ever ahmen with the HR10-250 and other models from the last year or so.


follow the link in my signature for a detailed thread on why the series 3 or any stand alone DVR can not record HD from any receiver be it satellite or cable and that it is the cable card being able to decrypt digital signals from cable that makes the stand alone HD recorder possible for cable subscribers only.

also note that cable companies are very unlikely to go to mpeg4 anytime soon the cost and complexity of doing so out weighs any gain for them since they have the bandwidth on cable and the direction is to go all digital eventually anyway adn dropping an analog channel gives them room for 4 or 5 mpeg2 digital channels. They just have no need like the sat companies do. the mpeg4 playback on a sereis 3 is for downloadable content where file size matters in relation to downloading time.

all in all I can see the cost of the sereis 3 being high and fairly so to recoup R&D and startup costs but since my S2 TiVos record all I need then the two tuners are more convenience factor adn HD is worth only so much to me right now. I can hold out for 400$ for hardware.

[TheRatPatrol]

The only one thing I'd like to see on this unit is PIP.

[Stormspace]

I just got a 42" plasma and am now rethinking what I would pay for an HD capable tivo. Our cable co however only has one hd channel in it's line up, so I would guess SD content wouldn't look any better on the plasma than it currently does with an S2.

[HD Guy]

Having struggled now with a non-TiVo DVR for several months, I'd be willing to pay $2k for a multi-tuner HD TiVo. I'd no longer have to worry about whether or not a program would record, or not being able to start at the beginning of an underway sporting event. Bring it on!

[rkester]

$2k really? That's commitment man! I just can't see personally spending over $500 for it unless there is more content in HD. And I'm pretty sure there arent too many customers who would spend over say $1k.

I'm on a budget that requires me to save for a long time for larger items. My HDTV took me well over a year to save for and that included some lucky breaks on side jobs and great timing with xmas and my bday.

I'd just hold out for 6mo to a year and see how the price was if it was that much to start.

[Sirshagg]

I currently have a HDTivo from D and am getting the mpeg2 feeds. I'll find it very difficult to to purchase a series3 for myself at any price above a few hundred bucks (without sub). This of course will change when D cuts off mpeg2 in a few years.

I'm setting up a system for my folks and would pay up to $700 for their series3.

Just curious though. This unit is being called a series3, wouldn't that generally mean that the series2 will be discontinued once it arrives? The S2 is available with a few different size hard drives, wouldn't it make sense that the S3 is too. The models with 40gb drives might be similiarly priced to the S2, whereas ones with HUGE drives would be significanly more.

[briguymaine]

at some point the hardware folks and the content folks are going to have to both step up and start delivering. Right now, I have no interest in upgrading to HD, there simply isn't enough compelling content. And to think that HD hardware can be priced at a premium for too much longer is no more than a dream to the manufacturers. $800 for a HD Tivo seems like a premium to me, but I'm cheap!! ;)

[weldon]

I probably wouldn't be first in line either, especially at $2k. Comcast charges me $10/month for a dual-tuner DVR now. I assume TiVo would be $15 + $10 for the two cablecard rentals. I'd be paying $180 more each year on top of the upfront cost of the Series 3 box.

Can I answer the original question, though? I'm not sure. I think if the box were $500, I would be tempted to get TiVo's interface and the extra features of the standalone versions (I've only had a DirecTiVo). It helps that I know that I can likely upgrade the box and that there is a resale market, if needed.

[Bierboy]

...I'm on a budget that requires me to save for a long time for larger items. My HDTV took me well over a year to save for and that included some lucky breaks on side jobs and great timing with xmas and my bday....rkester -- That's us too. Our farmily budget is built on savings not debt. All of my AV and tech "toys" have been purchased with cash in hand, and I'm a firm believer that is the ONLY way to go. Early in our marriage we got into a lot of high-interest debt, so we learned the hard way.

[ChuckyBox]

I would just like the option of paying too much for it right now. Come on TiVo, take my money. Please.

[DixonJDixon]

Take mine too!!!

[Bierboy]

Take mine too!!!Me (Series) three!!! :up: :up: :up: :D :D :D

[rkester]

Take Chucky, Dixon and BierBoy's money and send me one too! ;) ha!

So nice of you guys to offer to buy me a S3 tivo.

[jsmeeker]

If it has all the feautres the S3 demo unit I saw in San Francisco has, I'd pay $500 for that box.