Is DirecTV completely dropping Tivo?

[kenham]

Heard a story on CNBC this morning that DirecTV is going to use their own PVR and drop Tivo.

Please tell me that it ain't so!!!

[mwhitted]

Heard a story on CNBC this morning that DirecTV is going to use their own PVR and drop Tivo.

Please tell me that it ain't so!!!

Looks like you haven't been around DirecTV/TiVo very long. Do a search here and you'll find that this is not "news". What was the context of the CNBC story? :confused:

[yunlin12]

Probably the JP Morgan downgrade on Tivo stock

[JimSpence]

Wasn't there a recent report that DirecTV and TiVo have agreed to continue their relationship for another couple of years?

[HiDefGator]

I "think" the continued relationship agreement was to cover the time period between now and when no DirecTivo box is still out there active. I don't believe there was any agreement to make new boxes or to continue to sell DirecTivos after the non-Tivo boxes are released.

[Hodaka]

I would just guess that DirecTV has only worked out a "maintenance" type agreement to keep guide data arriving and maybe fix any major flaws. I seriously doubt they've signed any agreement that will give them access to new software upgrades, features, etc. since they're probably going to be pushing their own boxes pretty hard..

[jmoak]

from a PC Mag article a few months ago: (http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1759,1748961,00.asp)
The DIRECTV DVR will compete head on with TiVo-based DirecTV branded DVRs. The company will continue to offer both "for the foreseeable future", claimed a rep at the company's booth....but who knows....
Forget what directv says. I guess cnbc knows more about what directv is going to do than directv does.

[HiDefGator]

Do you think DirecTV might have been just being nice and not dissing Tivo because they need to continue working with them for the forseeable future?

I can see the head-on competition now, "Do you want the DirecTivo box that hasn't had the software updated in 2 years for $100 plus a monthly fee or would you like our box for free?"

Maybe 1 out of every hundred people might get the DirecTivo. Maybe less. Either way the revenue stream headed to Tivo from DirecTV's checkbook is going to start dropping.

[Justin Thyme]

The revenue stream from Direct needs to be looked at- as has often been said, the raw numbers of users is extremely misleading. Tivo get $1 per unit for direct, $12 for SA. That means in terms of revenue growth, Direct is around 20% of the picture for Tivo. Lots and lots of DirectTivo users have to leave for this to have much real impact.

The Forbes article (http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/07/22/tivo-directv-earnings-0722markets08.html) said this:
The research firm [JP Morgan] said DirecTV could begin to transition its TiVo base to new technology, starting with shipments of the first non-TiVo digital video recorders in August or September. "We believe such a DirecTV D-Day would rattle investor confidence, since DirecTV drives more than 70% of current TiVo subscriber growth,"Subscriber growth. Not revenue growth. And notte the soft terminology that mirrors Direct's PR stance on the subject- They are saying transition- not positiioning it as some sort of agressive switchover plan, such as big giveaways, making DirecTivo users switch over, plans to remove turn off service to Tivo units as part of the switchover etc.

IMHO, I think DirecTV may get a "New Coke" reaction from their subscribers, and will take a second look at the role of Tivo after observing advertising revenues that Comcast gets from a Tivo partnership.

We'll see. So far we haven't seen good Ipod or Mac clones even though Apple has been around for 2 decades. Good UI seems elusive for most companies. I don't know why that is. Good luck to them- if it really does everything that the Tivo does (as jmoak's pcmag article quoted DirecTv as boasting), then I'm for it. I am extremely skeptical they will do TTG or HME, but hey if they do, that would be cool.

[HiDefGator]

DirecTV won't need to offer deals to get people to switch from Tivo DVR's to their own. This path would cost more than the return. But keep in mind the normal yearly subscriber churn. Old customers never return their old units back to DTV. They go in the trash or the garage. New customers will always get non-Tivo units. Warranty replacements will all be non-Tivo.

I think your "new coke" analogy is distorted by your love of Tivo. Only people that have previously had Tivos feel this way. What will be the customers other option? Switching to another non-Tivo box from dish or cable? Comcast would be the only other Tivo option (in the future) and comcast isn't everywhere.

[davsherm]

Do you think DirecTV might have been just being nice and not dissing Tivo because they need to continue working with them for the forseeable future?

I can see the head-on competition now, "Do you want the DirecTivo box that hasn't had the software updated in 2 years for $100 plus a monthly fee or would you like our box for free?"

Maybe 1 out of every hundred people might get the DirecTivo. Maybe less. Either way the revenue stream headed to Tivo from DirecTV's checkbook is going to start dropping.
I wonder how much longer you will be able to get a new directivo after the launch of the directpvr. This may up the value of "used" units kicking around on ebay. I know I will have a couple in the closet for "spares" until I find something better, or am forced to switch.

[Hodaka]

yeah, I'm one of those longtime DirecTV subscribers that got a DirecTivo because it was what DirecTV offered, not because I necessarily wanted a Tivo.. I just wanted a DVR..

don't get me wrong, I like Tivo, but I'll stay with DirecTV as long as they offer a decent DVR.. if for some reason DirecTV starts only offering complete crap, Il could always go back to a standard receiver and try some standalone dvrs..

[Justin Thyme]

I think your "new coke" analogy is distorted by your love of Tivo. Only people that have previously had Tivos feel this way. What will be the customers other option? Switching to another non-Tivo box from dish or cable? Comcast would be the only other Tivo option (in the future) and comcast isn't everywhere. What's the option? Buying an SA Tivo.

Do you think that all DVRs from Direct will be free? They aren't for Dish. I am on Dish, and they have had a DVR for a while now. Dish wants me to give them $300 for theirs. Sure a new customer to Direct, like Dish may get a "free" one. The second one will likely be $300 though.

So compare that to a street price of around $100 for a tivo that can be upgraded to HD storage far in excess of anything Direct will ever offer.

So they may take the free one, then get a Tivo SA for the bedroom. Now they see the difference. Then they have a perspective on the Tivo advantage.

[HiDefGator]

But the SA Tivo can't do HD. And worse it costs $12.95 a month per box. I know I'm cheap but there is no way I'm paying $12.95 a month per box for DVR functionality after I have to pay for the box itself too. Especially if DTV will subsidize the cost of a similar box and offer a fee that covers all of them.

I'm not sure what the average cable\dtv monthly bill is but adding $12.95 per month per box is going to prohibitive for most people.

[patonenow]

Of course they are droping them. They used TIVO to build up their base with the intention of later after picking their brains to start their own in-house device. Really funny cause they now pay TIVO $1 a subscription and charge us $4.99 each. But you can bet they will start charging $5.99 or a short time at $4.99 and then soon at the dollar increase for their OWN in-house device. Plus they will probably add on more things it will do for more money.
TIVO is what made them and what will break them in the long run. So MR. MURDOCK better start emptying your vast pockets.

[Rax]

Funny how people are naive enough to think DirecTV will tank without the floundering TiVo company.

[patonenow]

Funny how people are naive enough to think DirecTV will tank without the floundering TiVo company.
All I can say is please look at the history of D* from the start and what gave them the huge customer increase. They were ready to go under until then and even with dish's problems they are still number one. Time will tell but I won't be there much longer as I will go back to my big dishes and use TIVO with them and programing from another source.

[lee espinoza]

yeah, I'm one of those longtime DirecTV subscribers that got a DirecTivo because it was what DirecTV offered, not because I necessarily wanted a Tivo.. I just wanted a DVR..

don't get me wrong, I like Tivo, but I'll stay with DirecTV as long as they offer a decent DVR.. if for some reason DirecTV starts only offering complete crap, Il could always go back to a standard receiver and try some standalone dvrs..
Same here :up:

[lee espinoza]

.
TIVO is what made them and what will break them in the long run.

I agree on your all statement but this one , i think DIRECTV could have gotten were they are now with or with-out TIVO

[lee espinoza]

All I can say is please look at the history of D* from the start and what gave them the huge customer increase. They were ready to go under until then and even with dish's problems they are still number one. Time will tell but I won't be there much longer as I will go back to my big dishes and use TIVO with them and programing from another source.
LET's take a look at that:

here are DIRECTV's customer number with-out TIVO:
1994 320,000
1995 1.2 million
1996 2.3 million
1997 3.301 million
1998 4.458 million
1999 6.679 million
2000 9.554 million

now with:
2001 10.218 million
2002 11.181 million
2003 12.290 million
2004 13 million


do you want to restate YOUR statement? :rolleyes: :D

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DirecTV


http://www.sbca.com/index.asp


DISH, ALPHASTAR, PRIMESTAR, VOOM, has never had the same secuess as DIRECTV, same with the cable corps.

[FlWingNut]

All I can say is please look at the history of D* from the start and what gave them the huge customer increase. They were ready to go under until then and even with dish's problems they are still number one. Time will tell but I won't be there much longer as I will go back to my big dishes and use TIVO with them and programing from another source.

Yeah, good luck with that. The Directivo is a nice machine, but D* will do fine. Most folks, I would guess, just want a good DVR. I have 2 Directivos but really prefered UTV. Better UI, in my opinion, faster, more logical. So why did I switch? The extra 5 bucks a month D* wanted for it, compared to Tivo. Couldn't justify that. The Tivo experience, once I got used to its annoyances (no caller ID, no PIP, slow menus, having to do with three buton presses what UTV did in one) has been just fine, but if the R15 experience is just as good, I think you'll find it doesn't matter to most subscribers. I signed up for D*, Tivo's just along for the ride.

[jmoak]

I see a lot of folks (and expert analysts) assumeing that the first day that directv begins selling the r15's is the last day we'll see any "tivo powered" dvr's sold at directv, discounting the units already in the supply chain. aka, the release of the r15 spells the end of the directv/tivo era.

Let's "assume" that directv has some common sense for the moment....(;))

The quality and the resulting churn rate of users of the r15 will be the deciding factor for the "end of tivo w/directv".

If the customer is happy and the churn rate is equal to or less than 0.5% (dtivo's worst historic churn), no more tivo.

Tivo took on competition at directv from a company with one of the biggest r&d departments and the deepest pockets of any company in the world...... and won. Can they do it again?

Directv has pushed back the release date of their new dvr quite a few times now, with the latest delay coming even after telling their retailers "Here they come!"

Directv's got until 2007 to find out if they can do it or not.


after days with no response...
noone thinks churn, customer reaction and satisfaction has anything to do with it? why the heck do i do this?? nobody even reads my posts anymore.....
:(

[bidger]

LET's take a look at that:

here are DIRECTV's customer number with-out TIVO:
1994 320,000
1995 1.2 million
1996 2.3 million
1997 3.301 million
1998 4.458 million
1999 6.679 million
2000 9.554 million

now with:
2001 10.218 million
2002 11.181 million
2003 12.290 million
2004 13 million


do you want to restate YOUR statement? :rolleyes: :D Thanks for providing the numbers Lee. I couldn't help but groan when I saw the statement about how TiVo MADE DirecTV by patonenow. What made DirecTV, and Dish for that matter, was that they blindsided cable through cable's estimation they would always be a "rural" provider, which lead to an apathetic "take it or leave it" attitude on their part, IMO. When locals started being provided, that really opened the floodgates

I did own a TiVo prior to owning a D-TiVo, still do. I keep one for OTA and even if DirecTV offered locals in my area, I intend to keep the SA so I can keep my CBS, FOX, and PBS distant nets. I was with DirecTV for over two years before buying one. I do have to say I see no reason whatsoever to buy a non-DVR receiver from this point forward. I will use my D-TiVos until they are no longer operational, but I will keep checking out threads on the DirecTV DVRs to check out what they might offer that's not currently on the D-TiVos. That doesn't necessarily mean I'll buy one, but I'd like to keep informed.

[patonenow]

LEE, Not trying to start an argument,especially with one that loved SELENA much as I do. I trust the figures you presented but looking at that would you say that about4 and a half million subscribers were picked up in the last 5 years? And how many years did it take to reach the 2000 figure? And as everyone knows figures can be made to show whatever one wants just as the government plays with them everyday. For example how many subscribers were reabsorbed or retained by offering the "new" TIVO.
My only point is what I stated is just MY opinion and I respect all opinions on here. I am 63 and have been around this game with the dishes a very long time. So suffice it to say I stand by my opinion and wish you all luck. Only wish that all the gadgets they have today were around when I was younger.

[Justin Thyme]

But the SA Tivo can't do HD. ... I'm not sure what the average cable\dtv monthly bill is but adding $12.95 per month per box is going to prohibitive for most people. I get it. $2000 for an HDTV but 12.95/month is too high. My wife doesn't go to blockbuster anymore after tivo- So any DVR is better than no DVR. Question is which. You are putting forward a price argument and it doesn't wash. Here's why-

Today, you can go to Tivo.com and buy an SA Tivo for $299 and never pay any service fee ever. Or you can Pay Dish $349 for their DVR box, plus $5/month for DVR "access fees".

Which number is bigger? You do the math.

When you are done scratching your head over that one, check out the prices of tivos with lifetime subs on Ebay. That's right- three year old Tivo boxes with lifetime subs go for $250 or so. You think your resale will be that high on a Carrier provided box? Think again. Most carrier boxes get tossed.

Tivo has the added option that you don't have to pay $299 up front if you don't want. You can effectively rent the thing for $12.95 and so you can jump ship anytime you want. For many leary of fads, this is appealing, but they don't jump.

As for HD? Go visit your local store. That wall that was once filled with HDTV flat panels is now filled with EDTVs at a fraction the price. HD is great for sports and videophiles. Most people simply don't care and often don't even notice if one speaker of a stereo is unplugged.

That's reality.

So what do people really ask for- they want to archive their shows permanently. So does Direct have any intention of providing TTG or a DVD burner DVR? You bet they don't. To my knowlege, not a single carrier does offer such a box. How much you want to bet they put macrovision and color striping in to keep you from burning with an external DVD recorder.

As far as I am concerned, the carriers still have a hand to play, but as hardware encoder chips come down, they will seee what little advantage they now have slip away. Whether the big winner is Tivo, Apple's, Microsoft's or Sony's DVR box is anyone's guess. But the days of the carriers being able to dictate consumer hardware choices will soon be over for good.

[bidger]

My only point is what I stated is just MY opinion and I respect all opinions on here. Certainly.

Thing is I called a local DirecTV installer after finding that all the local retailers were only carrying R10s to see if they had other DirecTV w/ TiVo receivers in their pipeline. The response was, "We don't get a lot of calls for that item". Granted, I'm in DMA #173 so it's a very small market with no locals to date, so it may be not be representative of every market. But still, that's not encouraging. I can't say if DirecTV giving their DVRs for free will impact that situation. It'll be interesting to see.


I saw an item on-line that 70% of TiVo subs are of the DirecTv ilk. Wasn't too long ago that TiVo passed the 1 million mark. So, 70% of one million...that's not much of the 13 million DirecTv subscriber base. That's why I have to say IMO to say that TiVo has had the greatest impact on DirecTV's success is a pretty big stretch.

TiVo strength as far as DirecTV is concerned is in reducing customer churn. To know D-TiVo is to love D-TiVo...at leat that's my personal experience. I could never go back to a regular DirecTV receiver. Too bad more people haven't experienced it.

[lee espinoza]

Certainly.

Thing is I called a local DirecTV installer after finding that all the local retailers were only carrying R10s to see if they had other DirecTV w/ TiVo receivers in their pipeline. The response was, "We don't get a lot of calls for that item". Granted, I'm in DMA #173 so it's a very small market with no locals to date, so it may be not be representative of every market. But still, that's not encouraging. I can't say if DirecTV giving their DVRs for free will impact that situation. It'll be interesting to see.


I saw an item on-line that 70% of TiVo subs are of the DirecTv ilk. Wasn't too long ago that TiVo passed the 1 million mark. So, 70% of one million...that's not much of the 13 million DirecTv subscriber base. That's why I have to say IMO to say that TiVo has had the greatest impact on DirecTV's success is a pretty big stretch.

TiVo strength as far as DirecTV is concerned is in reducing customer churn. To know D-TiVo is to love D-TiVo...at leat that's my personal experience. I could never go back to a regular DirecTV receiver. Too bad more people haven't experienced it.
Just to tell you, I just got a DSR708 and I AM in a BIG MARKET

[jmoak]

I saw an item on-line that 70% of TiVo subs are of the DirecTv ilk. Wasn't too long ago that TiVo passed the 1 million mark. So, 70% of one million...that's not much of the 13 million DirecTv subscriber base.

just correcting some numbers:

For the quarter ending April 30, '05 there were 1,213,000 standalone subscribers and 2,107,000 directv/tivo subscribers for a total of 3,320,000.

source:
Tivo corp's latest form 10-Q (http://a423.g.akamai.net/7/423/1788/3509b471119b56/www.tivo.com/pdfs/reports/10q_20050609.pdf)

[lee espinoza]

just correcting some numbers:

For the quarter ending April 30, '05 there were 1,213,000 standalone subscribers and 2,107,000 directv/tivo subscribers for a total of 3,320,000.

source:
Tivo corp's latest form 10-Q (http://a423.g.akamai.net/7/423/1788/3509b471119b56/www.tivo.com/pdfs/reports/10q_20050609.pdf)
In the 10-Q report it says that DIRECTV GENERATED 14% TO 15% OF TIVO's net revenues


DIRECTV generated
approximately 14% and 15% of net revenues for the three months ended April 30, 2005 and 2004, respectively

and DIRECTV pays TIVO $ 1.19 PER MONTH per DIRECTVTIVO SUB


We are dependent on our relationship with DIRECTV for subscription growth.
Our relationship with DIRECTV could be affected in the future by News Corp.’s acquisition of The DIRECTV Group. On
December 22, 2003, News Corp. acquired General Motor’s 19.8% economic interest in Hughes, subsequently renamed The
DIRECTV Group. Simultaneously, News Corp. acquired an additional 14.2% of The DIRECTV Group for a total of 34% of its
outstanding stock. It is possible that DIRECTV under News Corp. could seek to transition to an alternative DVR technology platform,
such as that created by NDS, which is majority-owned by News Corp. It is also possible News Corp. may slow the pace of DVR
deployment by DIRECTV in an effort to protect its content businesses from perceived threats posed by DVRs. DIRECTV has
recently announced that its core initiatives and new customer acquisition will focus on its new DVR from NDS. As a consequence,
the growth in the number of DIRECTV customers with TiVo service could be harmed in the future resulting in the loss of future high
margin revenues.

If our current development agreement with DIRECTV expires without being renewed, amended, or replaced, our business could
be harmed. A significant number of our new and existing TiVo service subscriptions are DIRECTV customers with TiVo service.
Our current development agreement with DIRECTV does not expire until February 2007. Neither TiVo nor DIRECTV will have any
further obligations to each other if our current development agreement with DIRECTV expires without being renewed, amended, or
replaced. While DIRECTV would have the right to continue to service existing DIRECTV receivers with TiVo service without
payment to us, it would not have the right to add new DIRECTV customers with TiVo service. And while TiVo would no longer be
able to generate additional revenue from the then-current DIRECTV customers with TiVo service, we would have no further
obligation to provide upgrades, fixes, new features, or software support. DIRECTV, however, also has the option under our current
development agreement to buy a royalty-bearing software and technology license from us. This license would grant DIRECTV access
to our source code and technology to make, modify (with certain exceptions), sell, and distribute DIRECTV receivers with TiVo
service to add new subscribers after the expiration of our current agreement.

[Justin Thyme]

Like I was saying, the revenue picture tells a different story.
approximately 14% and 15% of net revenuesKind of makes you wonder what the Morgan analysts are thinking.

Going with Murdoch owned NDS Group software provides features Tivo users only dream about- like Snapshot. Just imagine being able to take a still frame of anything you see on television and sending the picture to your telephone. And, always keeping the user's interests number one, NDS gives the user the ability to preview the image before demanding payment.

No figures are given, but I'm sure the mobile phone service providers and Murdoch's organization will work out a figure that will not surprize anyone.

Of course, with Tivo with TTG or an MCE for about $900 more you can grab frames to your hearts content and load them directly onto your phone without any permission, software feature, or fee from either your carrier or your cell phone company.

[Brewer4]

You can do video anywhere with a normal XP machine or even the new Sling Media. Sling is not Cell Phone or PDA ready YET, but it will be. Just wait.

I use Snapstream Beyond TV and its absolutely incredible. All you need is a compatible capture card, XP PC, Snapstream software and you can send video anywhere in the world on your own hosted webpage. Mine is working fantastic. I have 768k upload so the picture is just great on a 15 inch screen streamed. Placeshifting is becoming a reality and a pretty darn reliable one too.

[mikeinla]

You need to look forward to understand this issue, and I don't think it's that hard to do.

The future in cable/satellite is dvr's. In 5-10 years, almost everyone will have one, akin to today's vcr or dvd player.

He with the best dvr wins the battle. If DirecTV downgrades their dvr to make it no better than a cable company, they will be at a serious competitive disadvantage. DirecTV requires a serious committment, in terms of installation, hardware costs and a yearlong contract. Cable is like flipping a light switch; if you don't like it, get rid of it. No harm, no foul.

Tivo is heads and shoulders above Moxi or SA. From what I've read about the R15, it's a mediocre copy of Tivo.

I wonder if the folks at DirecTV know the meaning of the word "hubris".

[C_Roberts]

Relyability - ease of use

The thing to bring me to DTV was the D*Tivo. I had DISH for 5 years and was at first loving it when they came out with the Dishplayer, but after about a year of a love/hate realtionship with it (I loved the idea but hated reseting it almost everyday and losing many recordings) I saw a large group talking about the D*Tivo. I tried one at a friends house and since they were recently discounted to $99 I bought two 6000's. 3 years later and one upgraded to 164 hours I had not missed one recording but they were getting very slow. 4 months ago I replaced them both with R-10s. They are many times faster and still nothing wrong, until today one of them has a bad HD.

I would stay loyal with the Tivo unless the future HD Tivo like box can prove to be as well made as the Tivo and be as reliable and as easy to use.

Now go to the upgrade forum and help me with my HD upgrade issue with my R-10. :D

[Chris Gerhard]

Although I believe DirecTV will be able to come up with a very good DVR, if it doesn't happen, I am sure DirecTV has the ability to negotiate a new TiVo agreement and continue TiVo service. Without TiVo or a comparable alternative, I am not going to continue my subscription with DirecTV and I am sure I am not alone with that opinion.

Chris

[bonscott87]

He with the best dvr wins the battle.

Actually that would be incorrect. Cable has mostly inferior DVR's and yet millions stick with them. Many would say that Dish's DVR is inferior and yet over a million stick with Dish and their DVR.

At the end of the day 98% of the public could care less what their DVR is (they all think they are a Tivo anyway). To them even an "inferior" DVR is 100% better then their old VCR and they are happy as punch.

Don't let your love for Tivo blind you.

[FlWingNut]

Actually that would be incorrect. Cable has mostly inferior DVR's and yet millions stick with them. Many would say that Dish's DVR is inferior and yet over a million stick with Dish and their DVR.

At the end of the day 98% of the public could care less what their DVR is (they all think they are a Tivo anyway). To them even an "inferior" DVR is 100% better then their old DVR and they are happy as punch.

Don't let your love for Tivo blind you.

Agreed. The history of technology is rife with examples of superior technology losing to superior marketing. Most agree Beta was superior to VHS, Mac OS is infinitely superior to the buggy, unstable Windows platform and UTV was better than Tivo. :D All lost out to a competitor with better marketing.

[kbohip]

After reading the manual on the new Directv R-15 I can see things that are better and worse than the R-10. The better being the longer live buffer and the time remaining to record indicator. The worse being no wishlists. I would really miss this TiVo feature as I use it a lot. Of course there's also the issue of not being able to upgrade to a larger hard drive with the R-15, which sucks imho. All in all it sounds like Directv is beginning to be a lot more Dish like with their DVR's, and this is a very bad thing. Dish DVR's are why I no longer have Dish.

[mikeinla]

First, there's been a great misreading of history.

Beta was not better than VHS. The picture quality difference was negligible (especially on smaller tv's) and VHS had a much longer recording capacity. Consumers made the choice: much longer recording capacity over marginal picture improvement. Easy to understand.

Apple's problems were solely due to they refused to license their operating system to other computer makers; Microsoft freely licensed DOS/Windows. The result: more manufacturers of Windows computers, lower prices. I love Macintosh, buy they are way overpriced. Easy to understand.

Cable DVR's are bound to get better, especially since they view it as a principle tool to fight satellite. If DirecTV goes backward with a product no better than cable, why would you switch? If you have cable internet, the price differential is largely negated. Additionally, what keeps most from using DirecTV is the equipment investment.

Hubris...such a good word!

[lee espinoza]

After reading the manual on the new Directv R-15 I can see things that are better and worse than the R-10. The better being the longer live buffer and the time remaining to record indicator. The worse being no wishlists. I would really miss this TiVo feature as I use it a lot. Of course there's also the issue of not being able to upgrade to a larger hard drive with the R-15, which sucks imho. All in all it sounds like Directv is beginning to be a lot more Dish like with their DVR's, and this is a very bad thing. Dish DVR's are why I no longer have Dish.
Look at page 27 aka Autorecord a find

[bonscott87]

Of course there's also the issue of not being able to upgrade to a larger hard drive with the R-15, which sucks imho.

Uhhh, we'll have no way of knowing that until someone tries it. If it's like the BBSky box on which it's based then dropping in a hard drive will be easier then a Tivo (basically drop it in and forget it, no hacking).

[tivoboi]

What's the option? Buying an SA Tivo.

Cablecard TiVo.

[FlWingNut]

First, there's been a great misreading of history.

Beta was not better than VHS. The picture quality difference was negligible (especially on smaller tv's) and VHS had a much longer recording capacity. Consumers made the choice: much longer recording capacity over marginal picture improvement. Easy to understand.

Apple's problems were solely due to they refused to license their operating system to other computer makers; Microsoft freely licensed DOS/Windows. The result: more manufacturers of Windows computers, lower prices. I love Macintosh, buy they are way overpriced. Easy to understand.

Cable DVR's are bound to get better, especially since they view it as a principle tool to fight satellite. If DirecTV goes backward with a product no better than cable, why would you switch? If you have cable internet, the price differential is largely negated. Additionally, what keeps most from using DirecTV is the equipment investment.

Hubris...such a good word!

None of that negates my point, which was that superior technology does not always win out over other factors, be they marketing or other issues. Beta PQ was, even if only slightly, better than VHS (as you admit), the Mac OS is far superior to Windows(it costs more, but that doesn't change the fact that it's better), and Tivo is not necessarily the gold standard for DVRs. Whether the R15 is better than the D*Tivo it is supposed to replace remains to be seen. I hope it is, because the D*Tivo, like all products, can stand improvement. Even if it's not, that does not necessarily spell the end of D*. I maintain most D* customers are with them for reasons other than the DVR, and if you give them a decent one, regardless of what name is on it, they'll stay. I know I wouldn't go back to cable with a gun to my head.

[ebonovic]

First, there's been a great misreading of history.

Beta was not better than VHS. The picture quality difference was negligible (especially on smaller tv's) and VHS had a much longer recording capacity. Consumers made the choice: much longer recording capacity over marginal picture improvement. Easy to understand.

Apple's problems were solely due to they refused to license their operating system to other computer makers; Microsoft freely licensed DOS/Windows. The result: more manufacturers of Windows computers, lower prices. I love Macintosh, buy they are way overpriced. Easy to understand.

Cable DVR's are bound to get better, especially since they view it as a principle tool to fight satellite. If DirecTV goes backward with a product no better than cable, why would you switch? If you have cable internet, the price differential is largely negated. Additionally, what keeps most from using DirecTV is the equipment investment.

Hubris...such a good word!

Beta Tapes... Where SO MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE then VHS tapes. And you had to usually by them by the case. That was another major factor in it's demise.
As a fun "fact": The adult" industry liked VHS better... (it has been shown in many studies.. that when the "adult" industry sinks it's paws into something it has a much better chance of surviving)

Apple's where and still are to a degree, locked to "their" own hardware.
The hardware aspect of the non-apple "PC" also led to the margin that Microsoft has. When I could go and get a $30 Sound Blaster card for a PC, and the equivelent sound card for an Apple was $300 .... (just an example... This also happend in the PC world as well... IBM's Microchannel PC's for example, could run windows, but die off because the hardware was so much more expensive) IMHO.

And I do pay for Cable Internet ($56 a month, and do "technically" have basic service since it was $1 cheeper then Internet alone). I stay with DirecTV not because of the hardware investimet (if you take away the HD-Dtivo, it was only on average $50 a box).... I stay with them, as history has showed me first hand how troublesome cable is. Since going with DirecTV almost 10 years ago, I have only suffered minor outages that lasted on the scale of minutes... Versus some outages with Cable that have lasted days (in one case my In-Laws entire block was down for an entire week before it was fixed)...

If the R15 is a dud... then well it will grab some shelf space with some of the other equipment I have. If it is better then TiVo then well.... HMC is what I am most intrested in anyway...

[ebonovic]

Cablecard TiVo.

Which there isn't one yet, and TiVo/Comcast is the only one's to have announced a partnership to make one.... And even that is a ways off.

[ToddAtl]

People come to Directv for all sorts of reasons and people leave for all sorts of reasons. Directv's agreement runs out with Tivo in 2007. Directv is being a smart business by introducing their own DVR product more than a year before that. It gives them time to introduce it to the customer base and fine tune any problems that might arise.

What others have said is true, the vast majority of users will accept any DVR as long as it does the basics that the Directivo does with a similar easy interface. If the R15 does this, then come 2007 Tivo is gone and at some point after that Directv will come up with an offer for folks to swap out the Directivos for their in-house product. If for some reason, Directv finds out that its customer base completely hates the R15 they have time to either fix it or get a new deal done with Tivo to continue their relationship.

What will decide if Directv survives and thrives is not its DVR product, its the rollout of local HDTV content to stop defections to cable where HD is readily available and idiot-proof for the typical consumer. Remember most people on this board are not typical, tell a typical suburbanite all he needs to get local HD content from Directv is to put up an antenna like its still 1972 while Comcast can just flip the switch, you see why Directv has a serious problem. Thus the best and brightest at Directv better be far more focused on HMC and making it into a killer app to have hand-in-hand with the rollout of local HD. Thats Directv's future, not its DVR product.

[mikeinla]

The only reason I can think of for DirecTV to offer a non-Tivo dvr is so Rupert can save the $1/mos fee he has to pay to Tivo. It doesn't take a genius to read the R-15 manual and realize it's an inferior platform. That's being penny wise and pound foolish.

Unfortunately , history is littered with companies who make fundamentallly bad decisions and some never recover. Sony/Betamax and Apple are but a few. Movie studios originally opposed the idea of selling movies on video tapes. The guy who convinced them bought some old movie titles and made himself a multi-millionaire!

How bout AOL "there's no future in broadband"? Or GM "there's no money in small cars." Or Steven Jobs when he said "300 mb hardrive is large enough" on the original Mac. Or people who laughed at TimeWarner in 1975 when it thought that people would PAY for a television channel (HBO)? Or people who laughed at Ted Turner's idea of 24 hour news channel? Or people who laughed at the idea of a 24 hour weather channel?

If DirecTV drops Tivo, that will rank right up there with all these.

[ebonovic]

The only reason I can think of for DirecTV to offer a non-Tivo dvr is so Rupert can save the $1/mos fee he has to pay to Tivo. It doesn't take a genius to read the R-15 manual and realize it's an inferior platform. That's being penny wise and pound foolish.

Unfortunately , history is littered with companies who make fundamentallly bad decisions and some never recover. Sony/Betamax and Apple are but a few. Movie studios originally opposed the idea of selling movies on video tapes. The guy who convinced them bought some old movie titles and made himself a multi-millionaire!

How bout AOL "there's no future in broadband"? Or GM "there's no money in small cars." Or Steven Jobs when he said "300 mb hardrive is large enough" on the original Mac. Or people who laughed at TimeWarner in 1975 when it thought that people would PAY for a television channel (HBO)? Or people who laughed at Ted Turner's idea of 24 hour news channel? Or people who laughed at the idea of a 24 hour weather channel?

If DirecTV drops Tivo, that will rank right up there with all these.

So what you are saying is: DirecTV and Rupert spent several millions of dollars in research and development into the R15 (and any other of it's kind), to save $1 per month per account.... That just doesn't make "buisness" sense.

More likely is that DirecTv would like FULL control over the DVR product that works with their system (just like all of their competitors). It has been reported multiple times that DirecTV asked TiVo to implement different types of "security" features to the software that TiVo wouldn't do.

Once again... don't judge a product by it's manual... how often does the manual simply "skim" over the top of things. The R15 might be 20 times faster then then the DTivo types... hence why, you simply have to reserve judgement until at least the first one hits the streets and is used in a "real" home enviornment.....

The consumers ultimately decided the market... The vendors put the products out there... VOOM for example... Great Idea, but customers where just not ready to buy into it. DVRs... Replay was the first kid on the block... how many people do you know who actually have or had a ReplayTV ?

That "Palm" pilot thinging... Or a "car phone"... who would want to make a call while you are driving....

:( very tired of people judging the R15 before it actually is in the market place...

This is like... Let's buy that car, since the Internet Pages and the "manual" look terrific. Who needs a test drive....

[drew2k]

Uhhh, we'll have no way of knowing that until someone tries it. If it's like the BBSky box on which it's based then dropping in a hard drive will be easier then a Tivo (basically drop it in and forget it, no hacking).This is actually the first truly exciting speculation about the R15 that I've read! I just hope it's true the R15 can be upgraded by the end-user ...

[mikeinla]

So what you are saying is: DirecTV and Rupert spent several millions of dollars in research and development into the R15 (and any other of it's kind), to save $1 per month per account.... That just doesn't make "buisness" sense.

More likely is that DirecTv would like FULL control over the DVR product that works with their system (just like all of their competitors). It has been reported multiple times that DirecTV asked TiVo to implement different types of "security" features to the software that TiVo wouldn't do.

Once again... don't judge a product by it's manual... how often does the manual simply "skim" over the top of things. The R15 might be 20 times faster then then the DTivo types... hence why, you simply have to reserve judgement until at least the first one hits the streets and is used in a "real" home enviornment.....

The consumers ultimately decided the market... The vendors put the products out there... VOOM for example... Great Idea, but customers where just not ready to buy into it. DVRs... Replay was the first kid on the block... how many people do you know who actually have or had a ReplayTV ?

That "Palm" pilot thinging... Or a "car phone"... who would want to make a call while you are driving....

:( very tired of people judging the R15 before it actually is in the market place...

This is like... Let's buy that car, since the Internet Pages and the "manual" look terrific. Who needs a test drive....


Of course it makes sense to judge the R15 from the manual. It clearly doesn't have two buffers, which is a serious drawback.

I'm betting Rupert wants the profits from the hardware as well as the programming, which I think is silly. Isn't the R15 just a version of his European dvr?

He's already got a HUGE jump on his competitors with Tivo. Since DirecTV accounts for about 2/3 of Tivo subscribers, those boys are going to do whatever Rupert wants; they can't afford not to.

The problem Replay and Tivo originally had was cost. $500, the original price, for a dvr is just too much; $13 monthly fee is also pretty steep. Also, the sa Tivo is simply not as good as the DirecTV tivo; only having one tuner is a serious drawback. Note that all the cable companies are offering the two tuner SA/Motorola models.

The cable companies are now taking DirecTV very seriously. Adelphia last year alone lost 400,000 cable subscribers. They're ramping up their marketing and their product. The R15 seems silly and a waste of resources.

[Kanyon71]

Of course it makes sense to judge the R15 from the manual. It clearly doesn't have two buffers, which is a serious drawback.

I'm betting Rupert wants the profits from the hardware as well as the programming, which I think is silly. Isn't the R15 just a version of his European dvr?

He's already got a HUGE jump on his competitors with Tivo. Since DirecTV accounts for about 2/3 of Tivo subscribers, those boys are going to do whatever Rupert wants; they can't afford not to.

The problem Replay and Tivo originally had was cost. $500, the original price, for a dvr is just too much; $13 monthly fee is also pretty steep. Also, the sa Tivo is simply not as good as the DirecTV tivo; only having one tuner is a serious drawback. Note that all the cable companies are offering the two tuner SA/Motorola models.

The cable companies are now taking DirecTV very seriously. Adelphia last year alone lost 400,000 cable subscribers. They're ramping up their marketing and their product. The R15 seems silly and a waste of resources.

Profit from the hardware NOW THATS FUNNY. Tivo isn't going to and never has done what D* wants simply because they want it. Facts speak for themselves. Replay was $13 when it started and neither was Tivo. The cable companies bite pretty hard according to most people who have used any half decent DVR. Tivo isn't the absolute best product on the market anymore their turnover time for new innovations is HORRID and the product is suffering because of that. I give D* some credit they are taking a gamble, it will either end up being as good or better then Tivo or they could fall flat on their faces. Knowing Murdoch I SERIOUSLY doubt they will fail.

[HiDefGator]

I think it's funny how the standard seems to be, "It has to do EVERYTHING my Tivo does better and faster or I'm pissed about it."

Since when was that the standard for new products? Keep in mind that the DirecTivo is now on version 6 of the software. I'm willing to give the new one until version 2 or even 3 before I decide if it's better or not. In any case no one is going to come looking for your Tivo to take it away. If you don't like the new DVR then don't get one!

By most estimates DirecTV will be eventually saving over $100 million a year by dropping Tivo in favor of the new unit. For half that money they can hire the entire Tivo engineering staff and triple their pay.

[FlWingNut]

I think what it all comes down to is that those of us going ga-ga about this on this forum are a tiny minority of people who have the D*tivo. Think about it -- how many D* customers even have a D*Tivo? A lot still use VCRs, or SA Tivos or UTV (they're still out there). And of those that do have a D*Tivo, how many even know about this forum, and how many have even heard of the R15? It's not like D*'s marketing department is pumping up the DVR -- the majority of their ads seem to be focused on the "100% digital picture and sound," or the Sunday Ticket. I believe the vast majority that will eventually have a D* DVR will actually end up with something D* puts out, as opposed to some Tivo configuration --- and they'll be OK with it. The Tivo-vangelists are but a small minority of D* customers. Give 'em a simple, easy to use DVR and they won't care if it's a Tivo or not.

And I agree -- let's not judge the R15 until it's actually in use by someone, somewhere.

[ebonovic]

Keep in mind that the DirecTivo is now on version 6 of the software.

"Technically" this is only the 3rd or 4th core version we have seen on the DirecTivos

I can't remember the version number that the original Series 1 DTivos where... I think it was 2.0 but I could be wrong. Then we got dual tuners and that was 2.5ish.

Then the 3.0 came along....

Then finally the 6.x line.

Sure there have been some "bug" fixes, but we definently have not had 6 core versions on the DirecTivo line.

[PaJo]

The $.02 question I have is will these forums still be considered "Tivo" forums once DTV releases the non-Tivo dvr and people start discussing the non-Tivo dvr rather than the Tivo?

I was upset when DTV dropped the "Tivolution " magazine. I get sick of paging through the same titles in the wishlist over and over again as HBO, Starz, Max and Showtime keep repeating the same movies, Tivolution listed each title once. I can't understand why more DTV customers didn't get frustrated with losing Tivolution Magazine. Apparently most DTV Tivo users only use their units like digital vcrs. These people will not miss Tivo at all, because they never really used their Tivos to the full extent, they just wanted an tapeless vcr.

[SteveInNC]

Without even doing any fancy analysis like a time-series, using the subscriber data from earlier in the thread, I think that the attached chart may refute the premise that TiVo greatly helped DirecTV subscription rates. Note that at the DirecTivo start date of around 2000-2001, the subscriber trend actually drops off somewhat.

[Hodaka]

Of course it makes sense to judge the R15 from the manual. It clearly doesn't have two buffers, which is a serious drawback.


I'm guessing there are plenty of us (like me), who never use the 2 buffers and really don't care. I don't switch back and forth between live TV, I record and watch things on my Tivo..

I think too many of us make the mistake in thinking that if we love a feature and use it, that everyone else must use it too. I for one rarely if ever use the dual buffers. I also tried and found the Thumbs up/down to be worthless (except for scheduling a recording or getting info on one of those rare commercial I see that has the thumb's up displayed). I think it's pretty simple. If you use a feature and it's not offered in the R15, don't buy it and let DirecTV know why. Maybe in their next release they'll offer that feature since they will control the box now, not Tivo..

[mikeinla]

I'm guessing there are plenty of us (like me), who never use the 2 buffers and really don't care. I don't switch back and forth between live TV, I record and watch things on my Tivo..

I think too many of us make the mistake in thinking that if we love a feature and use it, that everyone else must use it too. I for one rarely if ever use the dual buffers. I also tried and found the Thumbs up/down to be worthless (except for scheduling a recording or getting info on one of those rare commercial I see that has the thumb's up displayed). I think it's pretty simple. If you use a feature and it's not offered in the R15, don't buy it and let DirecTV know why. Maybe in their next release they'll offer that feature since they will control the box now, not Tivo..


I would be willing to bet the opposite: that most DirecTV Tivo users find that 2 buffers one of the most important features. I also find the thumbs up/down feature handy...it tends to find old movies I like based upon those ratings.

Whether you find them useful, if the R15 lacks them, it's a lesser product. Explain the logic of dropping a better product in favor of a lesser product.

[dbett]

Which there isn't one yet, and TiVo/Comcast is the only one's to have announced a partnership to make one.... And even that is a ways off.


Luckily, about the time that lack of Tivo/Directv cooperation can be expected to seriously negatively impact DTivo users (ie, no HD support as the new MPEG4 birds are brought up, no networking as the alternative DTv DVRs are released).

[jmoak]

The $.02 question I have is will these forums still be considered "Tivo" forums once DTV releases the non-Tivo dvr and people start discussing the non-Tivo dvr rather than the Tivo?from a post by ebonovic: (http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?p=3057644&&#post3057644)
I sent a PM to Unixadmin, about posting a Review on the R15...

He said for the time being, R15 discussion will be allowed here, primarily for it "comparison" quality to the DTivos...

BUT... when it get into support and "upgarde" discussions for the R15, then that is where the line will be drawn... And we will have to move ( sniff ) else where... Avsforum has a DVR section, SATguys, DBSforum ect......although I'll bet that david will quickly have a forum for it on the avs board.

As far as this forum... well, it IS the "Tivo Community", right?
;)

[ebonovic]

...although I'll bet that david will quickly have a forum for it on the avs board.

As far as this forum... well, it IS the "Tivo Community", right?
;)


The question then is..... can we transfer our post counts? :D

[Hodaka]

I would be willing to bet the opposite: that most DirecTV Tivo users find that 2 buffers one of the most important features. I also find the thumbs up/down feature handy...it tends to find old movies I like based upon those ratings.



Not from what I usually read here. Anytime "live" tv is brought up, almost everyone chimes in to "just record it" and "why would you want to watch live tv"...
even the majority of the people on these forums don't seem to use the dual "live" buffers that much and I'm sure it's used even less by the majority of those out there that have never even heard of this forum..

truthfully, I'm more upset that I'll probably lose my 30second skip than dual tuner buffers. Now that's something I use ALL of the time..

As for thumbs up/down.. I gave up on suggestions after about 3months of having them on and using those buttons constantly.. the suggestions were mostly whacked. Any that were good were usually those that I already had season passes for..


Whether you find them useful, if the R15 lacks them, it's a lesser product. Explain the logic of dropping a better product in favor of a lesser product.

that's easy.. if you're talking about directv, it's production costs. If you're talking about us, I'm not saying drop anything. I'll have my R10 and my R15.. and as Directv stops adding features to the Tivo products and slowly makes their NDS products better, I'll be able to receive those new features that will never make it to the old boxes..

I'm not saying everyone has to love the box. I'm not even saying I'll love the box. What I'm saying is give it a chance. There's absolutely no reason to go off half-cocked on a unit that hasn't even been released and not a one of us has used or seen a review on.. I'm not taking much of a chance by getting a free unit, so I'm willing to be a guinea pig, as are many others since valueelectronics has filled all their preorders AND a waiting list..

[jmoak]

... people on these forums don't seem to use the dual "live" buffers that much and I'm sure it's used even less by the majority of those out there that have never even heard of this forum.....Best reason for dual buffers?
FOOTBALL!! :D

two buffers?? Baaah! I bet they taste sour anyway.....
;)

[Hodaka]

Best reason for dual buffers?
FOOTBALL!! :D

two buffers?? Baaah! I bet they taste sour anyway.....
;)


heh, yeah.. not my thing.. but I agree that some people use it this way. I wonder if you'll be able to get the same functionality by recording one and playing one live.. 1 buffer for the live feed and 1 show recording.. of course it would then depend on how easy it would be to switch back and forth..

I rarely watch anything live anymore since I discovered tivo, so it makes no diff to me..

the R15 does have one potential buffer advantage for me. Several times I've turned on the TV and saw something on the channel that was active and wished I'd taped it. I can catch around 30+ minutes if I record, but sometimes miss parts of shows. With the larger buffer, if I see something when I turn on the TV, there's a much better chance that I'll hit record and get it all..

[pburns1835]

I actually use the buffers often to flip. I watch 2 shows at the same time and have no comercials to watch... I know it's silly, :D when I could just record. I guess it's an old habit left over from the old days, of only having a flash back button and watching a new show and rerun to avoid commercials.... doing it with no commercials is bonus I like.... And as mentioned I like knowing if turn on the set I can catch the minutes I missed.

Then there's the fact, that I still haven't upgraded the puny 35hr HD yet :( ...so recording all is not yet an option for us. To many other things left on my Honey do yet... :D

Some mentioned why dual out puts? so I can PIP with one box? I've considered a second tivo on the 35" so I could do this and have 4 tuners... I know silly,but I'm a GREEDY LIL DUCK!...

[crkeehn]

I am a regular user of the dual buffers. Would it be a factor in not using the R15? Probably not. I will admit that it would probably be installed in our playroom with the second tv. It would not be my primary unit.

Then again, If I didn't have a DTivo, I probably wouldn't care as I had nothing to compare it to other than a non-activated Dishplayer.

[jordanz]

FYI - I sent D* an email complaining about the move away from Tivo and got this response:


Thanks for writing. I can assure you that DIRECTV has a strong relationship with TiVo and we have not ended our relationship with them. DIRECTV held a small equity stake in TiVo which we sold in 2004, but this transaction will have no impact on customers who have (or are thinking about getting) our DIRECTV DVR with TiVo service.

While DIRECTV plans to introduce a new version of the DVR, we will continue to support the DIRECTV DVR with TiVo service. Please visit our web site at http://www.directv.com/DTVAPP/aboutus/headlines.dsp to learn more about the upcoming new DIRECTV DVR.

[pb_ft]

Heard a story on CNBC this morning that DirecTV is going to use their own PVR and drop Tivo.

Please tell me that it ain't so!!!

It is so!

Augist 11, 2005 News (http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh30347_2005-08-11_14-31-34_n11558240_newsml)

[ebonovic]

It is so!

Augist 11, 2005 News (http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh30347_2005-08-11_14-31-34_n11558240_newsml)


For the 2nd time today: http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?t=253893

THIS ARTICLE IS ABOUT DIRECTV STOPING THE MARKETING OF TiVo BASED DVRS

This is not a statement that our TiVos will stop being sold, stop working, stop being supported, stop anything.

It is just an announcement regarding the MARKETING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[pb_ft]

For the 2nd time today: http://www.tivocommunity.com/tivo-vb/showthread.php?t=253893

THIS ARTICLE IS ABOUT DIRECTV STOPING THE MARKETING OF TiVo BASED DVRS

This is not a statement that our TiVos will stop being sold, stop working, stop being supported, stop anything.

It is just an announcement regarding the MARKETING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry, I posted the above for the second time today.

I agree the story didn't say anything about "TiVos will stop being sold, stop working, stop being supported" but not "stop anything" as they will not be marketed by DTV. I do consider that as being "dumped" by DTV. And their statement "DirecTV said it was part of a wider plan to replace TiVo's technology" indicates that they intend to try to, at the very least, compete with TiVo. IMO the term "replace" is stronger than to just compete. I'm a TiVo believer and agree with most that have used other PVRs that it's hard to compete with the TiVO features. I certainly hope TiVo will prevail in the long term.

[HiDefGator]

If no one is marketing DirecTivo's, then only a few are going to be sold. If not many are sold, no one will bother to manufacture them. If no one manufactures them, they won't be available for anyone even if you ask.

[jordanz]

This is the end of Tivo. I know DirecTV has been working on a media center appliance. Any word on that?

[ebonovic]

This is the end of Tivo. I know DirecTV has been working on a media center appliance. Any word on that?

This is NOT THE FRACKING END OF TIVO!!!!!!!!!
TiVo is going to work, it is going to still be sold, it is still going to be supported, at a minimum to 2007 (based on the current status of the contract).

Okay... now to your second question.

Home Media Center is still in the works, we have not gotten any additional information regarding that unit, since the Ucentric / Motorola merger... And before that was CES.... So there is nothing new to report on the HMC.

[jordanz]

TiVo is going to work, it is going to still be sold, it is still going to be supported
I think you are missing the point. No one is saying that this isn't true. What appears to be true, though, is that Tivo is at an end-of-life stage with DirecTV. This implies that there will be no new development on the product. Of course it will continue to work. But, it will also quickly fall behind other similar products (including those directly from Tivo - which is already the case).

This is NOT THE FRACKING END OF TIVO!!!!!!!!!
The vast majority of Tivo's business comes from DirecTV. I hope this doesn't signal their demise, but if they don't do something quick, they're in deep doo-doo.

[ebonovic]

I DO Understand that point regarding that TiVo product on DirecTV is at the end of it's lifecycle... Some will say (and I am one of them) it has been there since networking was introduced with v4. (Until they threw us a bone with the grouping features of v6.2)

But... that is a BIG difference between DROPING the TiVo Service (aka it stops working), and no longer "enhancing" the service.

As for your 2nd point.
If TiVo (the company) wasn't prepared for this day, then they can't see big writing on the wall... but this nice new contract that have with Comcast, goes a long way in helping offset the changes with DirecTV. So long as it get's done....

[PittCaleb]

TiVo is going to work, it is going to still be sold, it is still going to be supported, at a minimum to 2007 (based on the current status of the contract).


What scares me is this:
"If you don't have a (digital video recorder) from us, you won't be getting the DirecTV experience," Carey said. "TiVo will only be available to the people who would ask."

which came from a Reuters article (http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh15265_2005-08-10_23-14-35_n10518892_newsml)

Thoughts on that?

Caleb

[willardcpa]

I think you are missing the point.....No, I think Earl covered the "point" as well as could be expected. Since the "point" seemed to be your statement, "This is the end of Tivo." ;)

[willardcpa]

Quote "What scares me is this:

Quote:
"If you don't have a (digital video recorder) from us, you won't be getting the DirecTV experience," Carey said. "TiVo will only be available to the people who would ask."



which came from a Reuters article

Thoughts on that?

Caleb"


That's just marketing lingo, not worthy of having thoughts on.

[2farrell]

But the SA Tivo can't do HD. And worse it costs $12.95 a month per box. I know I'm cheap but there is no way I'm paying $12.95 a month per box for DVR functionality after I have to pay for the box itself too. Especially if DTV will subsidize the cost of a similar box and offer a fee that covers all of them.

I'm not sure what the average cable\dtv monthly bill is but adding $12.95 per month per box is going to prohibitive for most people.
Not true.
It's only 12.95/mo. for the first box. 6.95/mo. for each additional box.
Also, as far as HD. Yes, a SA TIVO can't show in HD, but I've found recording HD channels in Best Quality gives better quality than recording SD channels in Best Quality.
Not HD but I'm not complaining right now.

[ebonovic]

What scares me is this:


which came from a Reuters article (http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh15265_2005-08-10_23-14-35_n10518892_newsml)

Thoughts on that?

Caleb


Sure...

I have a bunch of thoughts... but they are not all "coherient" (sp?)

Anyway...

DirecTV is going to be pushing their Interactive stuff.
It won't be available in any of the TiVo powered DVRs, but it will in the NDS.
It ALSO won't be available in the 20,000,000+ non-DVR IRDs that DirecTV still supports.

So yes... I won't have the DirecTV "experience" to it's fullest, but neather will 90+% of DirecTV's subscriber base unless they upgrade their equipment.

[mackrich]

http://www.redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=13136&hed=DirecTV+Scuttles+TiVo+DVRs

[jmoak]

The vast majority of Tivo's business comes from DirecTV.The Directv deal generated approximately 14% of net revenues of Tivo for the 2nd quarter of this year.

source:
Form 10Q for the Quarter Ended April 30, 2005 (http://a423.g.akamai.net/7/423/1788/3509b471119b56/www.tivo.com/pdfs/reports/10q_20050609.pdf)

...and that was before any revenue was realized for the comcast deal, not to mention the latest cable and ad deals.

It took me less than 5 minutes to find that info using google. "This is the end of Tivo"? Not by a long shot.

If you continue to take the word of today's media as fact without question in this as well as other subjects, it will be hard for anyone to take any of your comments seriously.

Don't let them led you around by your winkie.
Verify all facts.
If you can't, don't believe them.
It's too easy to find the truth.

[jordanz]

That same 10Q shows that 77% of new subscriber adds in the quarter were from DirecTV. Even in the cumulative subscriptions, DirecTV accounts for nearly 50%.

Another comment in the 10Q: "We are dependent on our relationship with DIRECTV for subscription growth."

[BillyT2002]

I could be pleasantly surprised, but I'm a glass half empty kind of guy. My guess is that the NDS XTV software is not going to be as good, reliable or as flexible as the TIVO software is. A lot of people who currently have a DirecTIVO and love it are going to try switching to the NDS XTV device and a few will be okay with it and others won't be. Quite a few will choose to keep using the DirecTIVO box that they have for as long as they can and forgo any new services using MPEG-4 compression. Certainly, I wouldn't think that interactive services alone are going to sell the NDS XTV box.

THe Ucentric server box is a variable for me. I have no idea if it will be as good, reliable and as flexible as my DirecTIVO or not. I believe it probably has a better chance of doing so than the NDS XTV box does, but I have no real basis for that belief other than faith and hope. ;)

TIVO will go on and sign up with various cable television companies and at some point there will be a bunch of churn from DirecTV to the local cable company which provides TIVO service. I really hope that TIVO signs a Time Warner deal. As they may be taking over my local Adelphia that would be awesome in terms of providing additional choices for me.

It would also be very cool to see TIVO sign a deal with Verizon to provide DVRs for their FIOS television service.

[jmoak]

That same 10Q shows that 77% of new subscriber adds in the quarter were from DirecTV. Even in the cumulative subscriptions, DirecTV accounts for nearly 50%.Yes, and as Chase Carey stated, those subscribers are not being forced to the new directv platform. They will still be tivo subs at least until '07.(discounting the historic 0.5% churn) By that time, the comcast deal will be in full swing, replacing and even exceeding those numbers. ...not to mention the NCTC deal.
Let's not forget, even though directv subs are just under 50% of the total sub count, they represent just 14% of their revenue. Also note that the directv deal has been generating less and less of tivo's total bottom line due to tivo's other revenue partners and deals, even as the directv/tivo subs have increased.
Another comment in the 10Q: "We are dependent on our relationship with DIRECTV for subscription growth."... as part of their adherence to SEC rules and regs pertaining to risk statements.
(this is from page 9 of the form 10Q linked above, in case someone wants to verify for themselves and see all kinds of other nasty things that "might" come to pass)

It's standard fare to lay out all risks for the investors, no matter how remote.
...actually, it's the law.

[BillyT2002]

Only God knows at this point what is going to happen. (That is if you believe in God. Otherwise no one knows.) ;)

[wkearney99]

It would also be very cool to see TIVO sign a deal with Verizon to provide DVRs for their FIOS television service.

I have FIOS service out on the pole in front of the house. If they make a two-tuner (or better) Tivo-based unit I'd *seriously* drop DirecTV in a heartbeat. I have no desire to EVER pay comcast ANY money more ANYTHING. They're just bastards. Verizon's nearly as bad but at least the FCC does a better job of keeping them in line.