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Will The End of Neutrality hasten the of broadcast & cable TV?

Discussion in 'TiVo Coffee House - TiVo Discussion' started by atmuscarella, Jan 9, 2017.

  1. Jan 9, 2017 #1 of 11
    atmuscarella

    atmuscarella Well-Known Member

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    I Cringely has posted an article with his 2017 predictions. The third prediction is:

    Prediction #3 — The Beginning of the End for U.S. Broadcast (and cable!!) Television

    Part of his reasoning is that the up coming Trump administration is going to end Net Neutrality and ISPs will be able to start charging OTT services again. This change will result in the ISPs making money from people using OTT services and that will fundamentally change the economics of cable companies services. He also listed several other reasons why he is predicting this.

    We have been talking about this change for sometime, up until now OTT video delivery has primarily supplemented Cable/OTA video delivery not replaced it. Do people think 2017 is the year we say that OTT video delivery really starts to kill off traditional cable/OTA video delivery?
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2017
  2. Jan 9, 2017 #2 of 11
    jth tv

    jth tv Well-Known Member

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    It looks like ad sponsored tv is going away. Commercials these days are just awful, plenty of snake oil, hard to believe many of them are legal.

    I've been watching Hulu commercial free for a few weeks now and it is not bad at all, very comparable to TiVo'ing. Amazon Prime, Netflix, there is now plenty of ad-free content.

    I am using $15/mth 3Mbps internet, measures 3.5Mbps. Per the TiVo info button, Netflix is usually "720" and often "1080". It is about 1 gig per hour and I've rarely gone over 150G in month. That is the low end of the limits they've been threating, I don't really see net neutrality being an issue. I pay for 3Mbps, I should be able to use it.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2017
  3. Jan 9, 2017 #3 of 11
    tenthplanet

    tenthplanet Member

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    No. Ad supported networks are subsidizing a lot people's video habits. Ad free Hulu is only possible because it's partners make their real money elsewhere. When the ads are gone get used to paying HBO type of prices for everything.
    Without the big TV networks ATSC 3.0 will be DOA also. It not the beginning of end for broadcast, but free video streaming may be history. Somebody gotta pay.
    Then there is the issue of buggy OTT streaming, network congestion.
    Cringely might be right in about 5 to 7 years..maybe.
     
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  4. Jan 9, 2017 #4 of 11
    jth tv

    jth tv Well-Known Member

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    How many hours of new prime time content is there for the big cable channels ? I just tried DirecTV Now, I cancelled cable a couple of years ago. I had forgotten, SYFY, TNT, USA are almost all repeats of old shows. It seems like they have 6 new shows a year, maybe 10 episodes per show. It does not seem worthwhile to subscribe for so little new.
     
  5. Jan 9, 2017 #5 of 11
    jth tv

    jth tv Well-Known Member

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    The ads they air much of the time cannot be bringing that much, they are total scams.
     
  6. Jan 9, 2017 #6 of 11
    atmuscarella

    atmuscarella Well-Known Member

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    Well to be far he didn't say traditional cable/OTA would end in 2017 but that:
    "There are a lot of moving parts to this one and it won’t all come together in 2017 but enough will happen to make the endgame obvious."​
    In the past I actually thought 5-7 years was faster than it would/could happen. I found that he considered the ending of net neutrality as part of what would be needed to start the beginning of the end interesting.

    He also indicated that there was a readily available fix to buffering issues, which seems (to me) to indicate that the ISPs having intentionally been not fixing, fixable network problems.
     
  7. Jan 9, 2017 #7 of 11
    JoeKustra

    JoeKustra Cable only TCF Club

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  8. Jan 9, 2017 #8 of 11
    Dan203

    Dan203 Super Moderator Staff Member TCF Club

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    The future of competition is in OTT streaming and skinny bundles. Without net neutrality the big ISPs, who also happen to be content providers, will use throttling and packet prioritization to squeeze this competition out of their markets. It's about as anti-competitive as it gets.
     
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  9. Jan 9, 2017 #9 of 11
    Bigg

    Bigg On the fence to being a cord-cutter.

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    That's some weird, sort of backwards logic. I guess he is saying that the OTT video providers will pay for preferential treatment/bandwidth/interconnection to Comcast (for example). However, I don't see an end to shareholders wanting more subscribers, whether they actually make any money on them or not. Their strategy for the past few years has been to retain video subscribers, even if they are losing money on them with aggressive bundles. Maybe Wall Street will finally wake up and realize that losing money on keeping subscribers is a terrible business model, and they should move towards unbundling, and just selling broadband?
     
  10. Dan203

    Dan203 Super Moderator Staff Member TCF Club

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    I still think that separating the content and ISP portions of the business is the best option for both consumers and the cable companies. If they can break out their content packages into their own OTT bundles then they can compete nationwide rather then in their captive regions. I think this is what ATTs plan is long term with DirecTV.
     
  11. alexb

    alexb Active Member TCF Club

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    I think it really depends on what end of net neutrality really leads to. For an example worst case scenario imagine comcast charges one to get good netflix, hulu, psvue whatever or changes their bandwidth charge for these services then it could change economics in favour of OTA or Cable quite quickly.

    I am not clear that that is the end game for mega providers like Comcast but with my streaming, firmware updates etc i average 600GB of my 1024GB bandwidth cap, if i were to truly cut the cord it would likely push my household over the 1024GB resulting in paying the ext $50 per month for 'unlimited' (which still has bloody limits).

    I do think if you are a house hold that can live on OTA and a few OTT channels then the dynamic i describe above is less likely to emerge - it's us with the full monty packages than will be affected first (or rather that comcast will look to make the dynamic as attractive to us by making it look horrible to go to ISP+OTA+OTT for same set of channels. I keep pricing up the options to get the same as I have with OTT and it always works out about the same amount with a lot more hassle....

    Bottom line:
    • for people on small packages net neutrality probably won't affect you / make the economics of OTT worse.
    • the mega providers (ATT, comcast) will do creative packaging to make thier combo of network plus OTT looks great (like the as much streaming on ATT as you want with dish subscription (i wonder how long that unlimited will really last)
    • for people on the fully monty bundle the loss od net neutrality / introduction of bandwdith caps will make going OTT less attractive
     

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