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TiVo prepping nex generation DVRs

Discussion in 'TiVo Roamio DVRs' started by bradleys, Jun 17, 2013.

  1. Jun 18, 2013 #21 of 1049
    buscuitboy

    buscuitboy New Member

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    Atlanta area
    I would LOVE to see a 4-tuner OTA box of some kind, but I have a feeling they will not be supporting OTA in the next Series 5s and it will most likely just be a 6-tuner digital cable only box.

    I think a good option would be to have a 6-tuner TiVo, but then have an external OTA tuner hardware of some kind that would connect to its USB port. This would be an awesome option & alternative. Not sure this is the direction they will go, but I'm sure we'll find out soon.
     
  2. Jun 18, 2013 #22 of 1049
    bradleys

    bradleys It'll be fine....

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    That is a good point - The least expensive Tivo today is the 2 tuner TiVo @ $150. Personally, I think the new line-up will include:

    P5 - 4 Tuner OTA
    P5 - 4 Tuner Cable
    P5 - 6 Tuner (Cable Only)
    P5 - 6 Tuner XL (Cable Only)

    That's it - I don't think the new line-up will include a 2 tuner option. And it would make sense for the 4 Tuner OTA/Cable options to be @ the same price point.

    Any pricing guesses?
     
  3. Jun 18, 2013 #23 of 1049
    atmuscarella

    atmuscarella Active Member

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    Rochester NY
    Well TiVo has already offered the current Premiere 4 with lifetime to me for $550 and given that once the new models are out the new 4 tuner boxes will likely be replacing the current dual tuner boxes and become TiVo's entry level DVR I do not think that $600 with MSD is out of the realm of possibilities for an upgrade offer (they offered the original Premiere at $470 with lifetime as an upgrade offer).
     
  4. Jun 18, 2013 #24 of 1049
    innocentfreak

    innocentfreak Active Member

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    Florida
    I will be day one purchase since I have a home waiting for my Elite.

    I would definitely be in for the XL model at 3TB.

    I can't see the P5 XL going for more than $499 at launch. I think above that they really price themselves out unless it includes 1-2 Minis at a large discount say $1000-$1100 for XL and 2 Minis with lifetime on all three.
     
  5. Jun 18, 2013 #25 of 1049
    atmuscarella

    atmuscarella Active Member

    5,717
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    Oct 11, 2005
    Rochester NY
    I think the 4 tuner box will be a combined OTA/Cable DVR like the current dual tuner models and will be the entry level DVR.

    My guess for price is:

    • 4 tuner = $199 or $250
    • 6 tuner $250 or $300
    • 6 tuner XL model $399 or $450
    With Service costs at the current level.

    There is also a slim chance the current Premiere will continue and be the only model that can do Analog cable or OTA and an even slimmer chance that it will be replaced with a new dual tuner model that can still do analog cable & OTA. If either happen then the above pricing might increase.
     
  6. Jun 18, 2013 #26 of 1049
    BigJimOutlaw

    BigJimOutlaw Active Member

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    I don't think Tivo would bother with an OTA-dedicated box. The market isn't big enough. Plus with analog support removed, that makes it easier to make a combined cable/OTA box.

    The Premiere and XL launched at $300 and $500. The Elite/XL4 also launched at $500. I'm using those points as my guide.

    - $300 4-tuner Cable/OTA
    - $400 6-tuner Cable
    - $500 6-tuner Cable XL6

    All before Lifetime or theoretical launch upgrade offers.

    The current platform officially EOL's and they probably all drop in price to between $100 and $300 to dump supply. Analog support will EOL too, so if anyone needs analog get a discounted Premiere during an inevitable sale over the summer while you still can.
     
  7. Jun 18, 2013 #27 of 1049
    bradleys

    bradleys It'll be fine....

    3,687
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    Oct 31, 2007
    A different product offering for an OTA option might make some sense... The OTA hardware has additional costs, so I am thinking something more in line with:

    P5 - 4 Tuner Cable @ $199
    P5 - 4 Tuner w/OTA @ $249

    Then the 6 tuner options:

    P5 - 6 Tuner @ $349
    P5 - 6 Tuner XL @ $449 (with built in stream) :)

    Just a swag, but seems resonable...

    EDIT: I didn't see your post BJO - I still think it might make sense to break the 4 tuner out and add the additional OTA tuners as an upgrade option. I also think TiVo is going to want to keep a basement price point at at least $250 - a lot of price pressure in Consumer Electronics.
     
  8. Jun 18, 2013 #28 of 1049
    moedaman

    moedaman New Member

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    Aug 21, 2012

    OK, OK! I guess I may be wrong about pricing. :p
     
  9. Jun 18, 2013 #29 of 1049
    atmuscarella

    atmuscarella Active Member

    5,717
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    Oct 11, 2005
    Rochester NY
    Actually an OTA only DVR has less costs than a cable one - no cable card hardware or certification which is a significant cost.

    In any event I agree with those that do not believe an OTA only box is likely, the cost of adding OTA tuners when they are digital only to a DVR is minor and there are many people who want the combined units.
     
  10. Jun 18, 2013 #30 of 1049
    atmuscarella

    atmuscarella Active Member

    5,717
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    Oct 11, 2005
    Rochester NY
    Well given that at this point all we are doing is guessing I think yours is as good as anyone else's :) but I certainly hope you are wrong :p
     
  11. Jun 18, 2013 #31 of 1049
    bradleys

    bradleys It'll be fine....

    3,687
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    Oct 31, 2007
    But I do not think they would do an OTA only box - I think they would do a box that includes OTA functionality. It has a much larger market share then an OTA only box.

    If I buy an OTA only box then I can never use it for cable, if I buy a Cable only box, I can never cut the cord. If I purchase a box that offers both options then my options are open.

    I think you would find a lot of people springing for the extra $50 just to keep their options open.
     
  12. Jun 18, 2013 #32 of 1049
    innocentfreak

    innocentfreak Active Member

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    The only thing negative about this is I can't see TiVo wanting its cheapest option to be $300.

    This is the only reason I can see them offering a 4 tuner non OTA model for $199.
     
  13. Jun 18, 2013 #33 of 1049
    BigJimOutlaw

    BigJimOutlaw Active Member

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    Understandable. I would have to think in that scenario they would probably just opt to keep selling the existing Premiere 4 for a while longer. The current 4-tuner boxes generally sell at a profit now without a subsidy. It'd be very tempting for them to just keep selling those rather than go to the expense of ramping up a 4th unique manufacturing/assembly tier for a lower-margin product that would have to be subsidized for a time.
     
  14. Jun 18, 2013 #34 of 1049
    innocentfreak

    innocentfreak Active Member

    8,950
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    Florida
    I also see it as a lower cost offering to MSOs since they don't need OTA. Unless of course they all jump to Pace boxes.
     
  15. Jun 18, 2013 #35 of 1049
    NYHeel

    NYHeel Active Member

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    I think that much too high unless they have significant bundle discounts with a mini. I understand that Tivo is a premium product but you just can't expect to sell very many of these things at those prices.

    I mean who besides a Tivo enthusiast would buy one at those prices? Think about a potential new customer with Fios (that's what I have so I'll compare to Fios). You can pay $300 plus $15 a month or $499 lifetime plus $4 a month cablecard for the Tivo. Or you can just pay $20 a month to Verizon with no upfront costs.

    And I know we all think Tivo is so much better but to a typical customer it's just not. The Fios DVR lets you share shows with other set top boxes in the house, allows you to expand storage easily with any eSata drive, and provides a significant amount of free Fios VOD. The Tivo doesn't have Fios VOD (which is a major lacking point to Joe Customer even if you or I don't care too much about it) and has to deal with cablecard headaches and replacement costs if it breaks outside of Tivo's short 90 day warranty. Fios is coming out with their new media center DVR (I think 4 or 5 tuners) and if Tivo prices this way I think they should just close up their retail business.
     
  16. Jun 18, 2013 #36 of 1049
    bradleys

    bradleys It'll be fine....

    3,687
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    Oct 31, 2007
    I also think that TiVo will want (needs) an offering that is more competively priced. That is what I based my estimates on - it isn't far off from BJO's estimates, but it keeps an entry level unit and provides a real benefit for each upgrade:

    P5 - 4 Tuner Cable only @ $199
    P5 - 4 Tuner Cable w/OTA @ $249
    P5 - 6 Tuner Cable only @ $349
    P5 - 6 Tuner XL Cable only @ $449 (with built in stream)

    And with this model, each offering makes you "consider" the next higher.

    "The base mode is cheaper - but if I ever want to cut the cable $50 is cheap insurance - Might as well..."

    "The XL model is only $100 more and it has a larger hard drive and built in stream - Might as well..."

    I do not think that TiVo will continue to offer / develop the legacy Premier line. This would require maintaining multiple development forks and they have never done that in the past.
     
  17. Jun 18, 2013 #37 of 1049
    BigJimOutlaw

    BigJimOutlaw Active Member

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    This is the timeless Tivo debate. Tivo's prices have pinched people's nerves since the company's inception. All I'm doing is following their pricing history to make an educated guess of what the prices will be, not what we think they should be. It's as practical as any other guess. As a consumer I would LOVE lower prices, but that wasn't the point of my pricing exercise. :)

    What I don't expect is for brand new modern hardware with 3x the performance to somehow match today's discounted prices of 2-4 year old platforms. I don't have any good reason to believe it's going to happen that quickly. Their new hardware is always more expensive to buy parts for and manufacture at first, and their pricing has to reflect it. The boxes are already subsidized by the service fee. An even bigger and immediate discount on the hardware would likely just result in lower profit in the long run and hasten their closing up the retail business.

    It's not a new argument. Tivo's done the math a hundred times. They're doing what they believe they need to. I'm just using history as a guidance tool.
     
  18. Jun 18, 2013 #38 of 1049
    innocentfreak

    innocentfreak Active Member

    8,950
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    Florida
    I think one of things that is interesting this launch is they have gotten boxes down to the $99-$149 pricepoint so it puts them in a position of how do you replicate that.

    They could just skip it like console companies do since if you just bought a box you aren't looking to buy. I just think the sub $200 price is too appealing to them and looks good on the shelf. Otherwise oh look the new TiVo and wow they jacked up the price.
     
  19. Jun 18, 2013 #39 of 1049
    mr.unnatural

    mr.unnatural Active Member

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    Ellicott...
    I'd like to see Tivo offer a basic box that can be upgraded with additional tuner modules and an OS that can handle >2TB drives. I'd be curious to know if they could get a Tivo to work with the SiliconDust HDHR Prime or the latest Ceton InfiniTV6 networked tuners. Since Tivo is already approved for cablecard support I'm assuming they wouldn't need to go through CableLabs certification again, but I don't fully understand the process or the requirements. I'm just speculating here.

    I don't know if it's feasible to convert a Tivo to a DLNA capable device, but if they could then they'd likely be able to get live TV feeds via the SD HDHR Prime like you can with a Playstation 3 or WDTV Live media player. Offloading the tuners to third party devices would save hardware costs and allow Tivo to offer the DVR at lower prices while still charging for their service. Tivo already has their own version of a media extender so TV could still be distributed throughout an entire house using existing hardware.
     
  20. Jun 18, 2013 #40 of 1049
    Bigpapa7272

    Bigpapa7272 New Member

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    Jun 7, 2013
    Give me a 6 tuner to go with my new 4 tuner and 2 more minis and I can cut down the amount of money I give the cable company each month
     

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