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The Fall 2013 Annual which show gets cancelled first thread.

Discussion in 'Now Playing - TV Show Talk' started by Steveknj, Sep 6, 2013.

  1. Alfer

    Alfer New Member

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    Agree. I quit recording it. Horrible show IMO.
     
  2. Sadara

    Sadara huh?

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    I haven't watched a single episode of any of the new shows. I'm willing to wait until I know if they are getting cancelled or if they are staying around. I don't want to put any time into a show that is getting dumped. Oh and it seems to me like this time last year we saw a lot more cancelled shows by now.
     
  3. Steveknj

    Steveknj Lost in New Joisey

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    Of course, as I say, if everyone did like you did, NO show would ever make it. Not watching any of the new shows because they might get cancelled is a self fulfilling prophecy.
     
  4. WhiskeyTango

    WhiskeyTango New Member

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    Well luckily for you then, not everyone watches tv like sadara and I do. I don't know why you feel the need to chastise people who do. Unless you are a Nielsen family and watch tv live, how and when you decide to watch a show means zero to the show's ratings.
     
  5. Steveknj

    Steveknj Lost in New Joisey

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    I don't mean to chastise you, but I think this trend of saving things and not watching unless ratings are good is a self fulfilling prophecy. If you're doing it or sadara is doing it, I'm sure some Neilsen families are doing it as well.

    You have every right to watch however you choose, but don't be surprised if some stuff you like gets cancelled because people are "saving"

    On this note, I wonder why Nielsen hasn't made a deal with TiVo or the Cable/Sat companies to collect data from those DVRs directly.
     
  6. Azlen

    Azlen Active Member

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    If you don't want people to comment on how you watch television then don't post it to a message board.

    That being said, it's true that if you aren't a Nielsen family then watching it or not doesn't matter and I would hope that people who are Nielsen families would realize they have an influence over what makes it and what doesn't so they wouldn't do that as much.
     
  7. Steveknj

    Steveknj Lost in New Joisey

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    The thing is....if a Nielsen family is influenced by the fact they are a Nielsen family and watch TV different than they normally would, how accurate or the ratings? If the norm is now saving up shows until they get cancelled and it reflects in the ratings, then those ratings are going to be horrible and the show will be cancelled, or, they will have to figure out a brand new ratings system, and a brand new way of advertising that isn't based on the 30 second spot if ads are not being seen right away. (and they probably should anyway, today's system is antiquated, and it's only going to get worse).
     
  8. DevdogAZ

    DevdogAZ Give em Hell, Devils

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    Nielsen is very careful to ensure that the homes they select to be part of their sample are scientifically-selected to match the demographics and characteristics of the population those people are supposed to represent. This is how they can get a sample size of several thousand to "accurately" reflect the viewing habits of over 100 million people.

    If they were to simply monitor all TiVos or all cable DVRs, then that would skew the data toward those households that are either affluent enough or tech-savvy enough to get a TiVo/DVR. That wouldn't be statistically sound. It would provide valuable data, and I'm sure TiVo makes that data available for sale. But it wouldn't be equivalent to what Nielsen does, because it wouldn't be a statistically-accurate sample.

    See my previous comment. Nielsen goes to great lengths to find Nielsen families that are just your average, everyday family. That means that if there is a statistically-significant number of people out there doing what sadara and WT suggest, then it's happening within the Nielsen sample as well, and therefore hurting the ratings for those shows.
     
  9. WhiskeyTango

    WhiskeyTango New Member

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    He can comment all he wants, I just don't understand the need to go around (in more than one thread) telling people they are watching tv wrong. I don't see what good that does for anyone other then the person saying it trying to make them selves feel that they are better than others.
     
  10. DevdogAZ

    DevdogAZ Give em Hell, Devils

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    According to this article, which is dated Nov. 12, 2012, there were only two shows canceled by that point last season. So with two canceled so far this fall, we seem to be right on pace. If anything else gets canned within the next few weeks, we'll actually be ahead of last year's pace.
     
  11. Steveknj

    Steveknj Lost in New Joisey

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    I get that, but wouldn't it be valuable data to sell? I'm sure they could find an algorithm to take into account the percentage of home with DVRs and go from there. Or just sell it as separate info, outside the ratings.

    Honestly, I still have a hard time accepting that the Nieslen ratings today accurately reflect what people are watching, and when. I know advertisers only care about what's watch live, but as we can see in the ratings, and with people's viewing habits changing, we might wind up with a VERY small portion of TV relevant to what advertisers want. Which means more NFL and reality shows like AI or The Voice which tend to be watched live.

    The other option is to disable FF/30 Second skip on everyone's DVRs. Then time becomes less relevant, except for time sensitive advertising (movies, new product releases etc.)

    And that's my point. The trend to "saving" shows will lead to what would have been good shows being cancelled prematurely. How does the TV model change to reflect this?
     
  12. Azlen

    Azlen Active Member

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    People are still going to be influenced by the observer effect. People will knowingly or unknowingly change their behavior when they know they are being watched. How much of that happens when it comes to DVR saving we will probably never know.
     
  13. Rob Helmerichs

    Rob Helmerichs I am Groot! TCF Club

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    The problem is, the Nielsen people KNOW they're Nielsen people, which makes them not a scientific sample no matter how well they otherwise align. Their behavior will change to whatever degree knowing they are Nielsen people (e.g. there are anecdotal stories of Nielsen families leaving certain shows on that nobody is watching for the sake of the ratings).

    TiVo does sell their viewership data, and Nielsen does use DVR data, and networks do factor in DVR numbers, although I don't know how it all goes together. Everybody, including the networks, have always know that Nielsen is deeply flawed. I guess there's just nothing that's been proven to be better.
    Oops, didn't see this one when I typed the first part of this post.

    I suspect DVR numbers are far more accurate (in terms of what's being watched) and, at least at this point, far less representative than Nielsen numbers. As more and more people get and use DVRs, I suspect Nielsen will become less and less relevant.
     
  14. Steveknj

    Steveknj Lost in New Joisey

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    I know of one anecdotal story where my friend's uncle was a family and my friend asked him to "watch" the NHL game that was on that Sunday, while the family was out. I'm sure this happens all the time. I assume that Nielsen takes some of this into account?

    That's why I am starting to think that it might be better put a chip into every cable/satellite receiver/DVR (and digital cable box) and maybe in TVs as well for those with direct connections and off people the option to "opt out". So many other things we do these days work on the same principle. Search Google and you'll see it. This would be a much more accurate portrayal of what is really happening. I for one would opt in provided I feel the safeguards to hide my identity are there.

    This is 2013 not 1964.
     
  15. marksman

    marksman ID-10-T

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    Although we may see some projects crowd funding pilots that later end up as series/
     
  16. marksman

    marksman ID-10-T

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    I usually do that but this year I managed to watch both episodes of Lucky 7 and We are Men before they got cut. I had grown more and more reluctant to watch new shows at all and this year I decided I would just watch them and keep watching the ones I like or might like until they get killed. That being said if there was any serial content out there I might not be watching it. Not sure if Sleepy Hollow is serial I could not make it through first episode.
     
  17. Azlen

    Azlen Active Member

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    This effect is still called the Heisenberg effect by many people even though it's not exactly what the Heisenberg uncertainty principle says. Still it was Heisenberg's claim to fame before he started cooking meth.
     
  18. That Don Guy

    That Don Guy Now with more GB

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    The problem is, they don't take just a count of "all people"; it needs to be broken down by demographics. Remember, ratings and share are almost always reported as "in the demographic" (ages 18-49?). They need to have some information about each viewer.

    Another problem is, with a cable box, there's no way to tell if someone is actually watching a show; the box can be on but the TV itself can be off.
     
  19. BrettStah

    BrettStah Well-Known Member TCF Club

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    Even if the tv is on it doesn't mean anyone is awake. :)

    Maybe the best solution would be to use the same techniques used by political pollsters before elections. They are usually pretty close to what happens (with their "+- X%" margin of error).
     
  20. Rob Helmerichs

    Rob Helmerichs I am Groot! TCF Club

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    They're also pretty labor-intensive...
     

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