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Product Cycle: Now the Time to Buy?

Discussion in 'TiVo Roamio DVRs' started by dbyerman, May 26, 2014.

  1. whiteshaft

    whiteshaft New Member

    35
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    Jul 15, 2003
    Valley Glen, CA
    I'm hesitant to commit to a lifetime service contract right now, if there's any doubt to the future of the hardware side of things. If TiVo (as we know it) went away I could see those contracts just evaporating.

    That being said though, I never bothered to get a lifetime service for my TiVoHD that crapped out last week, and we had that for 7 years. Imagine what I would have saved! SO maybe lifetime is a better bet even for 4-5 more years of product life...
     
  2. DougJohnson

    DougJohnson Member

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    Dec 11, 2006
    I've had TiVos since 2001. All lifetimed. These discussions raged then and TiVo was a lot shakier then than now. Yeah, buying lifetime is betting on TiVo or its successors honoring the contract. But it has for 13 years so far.

    -- Doug
     
  3. telemark

    telemark New Member

    1,544
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    Nov 12, 2013
    Tivo has a pretty complete and recent lineup right now. The only niches I see that they're skipping is something like the Channel Master, (cheaper hardware, OTA only, no cable card, cheaper service).

    And something like cloud storage, like the boxee did.

    A company that is strategizing on acquisition would prioritize on subscriber growth over profitability.

    It could be high-margin, high profit, even the majority revenue...if it has no growth, or has negative growth, it would not be a direction to keep investing.
    ( Assuming you have other products which are expected to have positive growth into the future )
     
  4. tarheelblue32

    tarheelblue32 Active Member

    3,641
    3
    Jan 12, 2014
    Raleigh, NC
    4 or 5 years? Let's do a little math.

    Scenario 1:

    Say you are buying a Roamio Plus. You can use one of the ebay coupons and buy a Plus with lifetime for $600 and let's assume you pay $50 for the coupon. You can buy a Roamio Plus on Amazon now for $372 and pay $15/month for service.

    600+50-372=$278 premium you are paying for lifetime service

    278/15=18.5 months

    Conclusion: If you think it's likely you'll keep your TiVo for more than a year and a half, you should do lifetime in this scenario.

    Scenario 2:

    You don't want to buy an ebay code for whatever reason, so you buy the Plus from Amazon and get lifetime service for $400 using the PLSR code.

    400/15=26.6 months

    Conclusion: Lifetime is better than paying monthly in a little over 2 years.

    Even if you want to get really fancy with the math and factor in the time value of money or include the cost of product extended warranty insurance, it would only add 3 or 4 more months to the break even point. Honestly, lifetime over monthly is almost a no-brainer.
     
  5. aaronwt

    aaronwt UHD Addict

    19,155
    19
    Jan 31, 2002
    Northern...
    The TiVoHD came out in the Summer of 2007. I got a launch one to go with my three OLED S3 boxes I got in 2006. So the TivoHD has only been out close to seven years so far. Not eleven.
     
  6. whiteshaft

    whiteshaft New Member

    35
    0
    Jul 15, 2003
    Valley Glen, CA
    Thanks for the note on this. I couldn't remember when that model came out and I was going by the date on my service contract (2003) but I realize that Tivo was listing the start date of my entire service with them, back when I had a Series 2.

    (Original post edited to reflect the correct date)
     
  7. whiteshaft

    whiteshaft New Member

    35
    0
    Jul 15, 2003
    Valley Glen, CA
    It's a no-brainer UNLESS you can't afford the massive upfront cost of buying the lifetime with the unit. In my case I only had about $400+ to spend on it so the additional cost was out of the question. I'll probably revisit it in a few months and lock it in, but it's just a lot of money to spend all at once for gear.

    [EDIT: I originally said coupon cost was pricier, was not.]
     
  8. tarheelblue32

    tarheelblue32 Active Member

    3,641
    3
    Jan 12, 2014
    Raleigh, NC
    Then you are doing something wrong. If you use one of the ebay codes, these are the prices you will pay:

    http://sellmoretivo.com/
     
  9. whiteshaft

    whiteshaft New Member

    35
    0
    Jul 15, 2003
    Valley Glen, CA
    Correction: just re-checked my bill and realized the warranty was not included in the Amazon price. Conclusion: it's almost a wash.

    Cost with Coupon:
    $299.99 for Roamio Plus
    $9.99 for first month
    $29.99 extended warranty
    $45 estimated sales tax
    $49.99 for ebay coupon

    = $434.96

    Cost from Amazon:
    $372 for Roamio Plus
    $12.99 for first month
    $17.68 extended warranty
    $33.48 sales tax

    = $436.15

    Coupon savings: $1.19. Did I calculate correctly? Hardly seems worth it, at least for a monthly plan.
     
  10. tarheelblue32

    tarheelblue32 Active Member

    3,641
    3
    Jan 12, 2014
    Raleigh, NC
    Certainly the ebay codes are less of a deal if you aren't getting lifetime or throwing in a Mini or 2. BUT you are only taking into account the first month of service, and so you are still better off using the code to get the lower monthly service fee going forward. Also, I'm not sure why your estimated sales tax for using the code is higher than the sales tax from buying through Amazon, when the unit price used to calculate sales tax is actually higher under Amazon.
     
  11. whiteshaft

    whiteshaft New Member

    35
    0
    Jul 15, 2003
    Valley Glen, CA
    I need to cancel the service on the defunct TivoHD, and I think they're going to jack up the new monthly service fee on the Roamio since I'll lose the multi-unit discount (this according to the rep I chatted with). With the coupon code, would that price have been locked in regardless of my current plan, or would they still have raised it?

    The sales tax IS weird. If you go through TiVo's site and calculate CA sales tax it's 13%; Amazon charges 9% which is the correct rate. Why is TiVo charging so much extra for sales tax?
     
  12. tarheelblue32

    tarheelblue32 Active Member

    3,641
    3
    Jan 12, 2014
    Raleigh, NC
    Yes, if you deactivate the HD, you will lose the multi-service discount monthly rate and will be paying $15/month for service, but the monthly service rate discount you get by using the code would be unaffected by deactivating the HD. That's another reason why using the ebay code would be a better deal.
     
  13. whiteshaft

    whiteshaft New Member

    35
    0
    Jul 15, 2003
    Valley Glen, CA
    LOL, I don't suppose there's a code just for the monthly rate is there? Or a discount on purchasing lifetime after buying a box?
     
  14. tarheelblue32

    tarheelblue32 Active Member

    3,641
    3
    Jan 12, 2014
    Raleigh, NC
    No, at least not that I am aware of.
     
  15. aaronwt

    aaronwt UHD Addict

    19,155
    19
    Jan 31, 2002
    Northern...
    At least I'm still ahead with getting my ROamio BAsic from TiVo with my $6.95 service transferred. The break even period is around 4 years.
     
  16. bareyb

    bareyb Under Maintenance TCF Club

    25,939
    4
    Dec 1, 2000
    Silicon Valley
    Agreed. Not being able to skip commercials is a very real possibility. They've shown it can be done and they are already doing it on some VOD content. I put up with it on occasion when there's no other choice, but I would absolutely hate VOD and streaming on a daily basis. :thumbsdown:
     
  17. chicagobrownblue

    chicagobrownblue Active Member

    2,283
    7
    May 29, 2008
    Chicago, IL
    As far as financials go, TIVO is in pretty good shape:

    1) Cash and Short Term Investments 1,002.47 in millions

    2) Price target at Goldman Sachs of $14 with a neutral rating ($12.41 Friday close)

    3) 271.82 million in net income for the year ending 1/31/2014 (up from losses in prior years)

    So TIVO is as good as it is going to get as a business and I believe the subscription part of the business is very profitable.
     

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