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Product Cycle: Now the Time to Buy?

Discussion in 'TiVo Roamio DVRs' started by dbyerman, May 26, 2014.

  1. dbyerman

    dbyerman New Member

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    Loooooooooooong time TiVo user here. Been using a DirecTiVo for the last few years but we are finally cutting the cord with DirecTV and going OTA.

    I noticed that the Roamio line came out last summer, and I'm wondering if this would be the wrong time to buy a Roamio. Does anyone know if there is a new generation due to come out soon? Would I be better off waiting for a few more months? Has TiVo signaled whether their future products will support OTA?
     
  2. lessd

    lessd Active Member

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    Anybody that knew that answer to your questions would not be posting, because they might end up looking for a new job. People can give you their options, but it would no different if they were giving you an option on some stock, buy now or wait.
    I purchased my first TiVo in 2001, I could have waited until now and gotten the new Roamio without going through many older TiVos that I did, but I would have had 12 years without any TiVo.
     
  3. aaronwt

    aaronwt UHD Addict

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    The Roamio came out less than a year ago. So based on past history it's unlikely a new box is coming out anytime soon. But of course past history is not indicative of future results.
     
  4. randy1649

    randy1649 Member

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    One thing I was surprised with using the roamio basic, you can only use either-or. Either OTA or cable card, not both at the same time as with the older premier units.
     
  5. tarheelblue32

    tarheelblue32 Active Member

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    There is probably such a small percentage of people who would actually want this capability, that TiVo figured the added expense of such a feature would not be worth the cost. And if you really have to have that capability, they still sell Premieres on the TiVo website.
     
  6. jwbelcher

    jwbelcher New Member

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    There's been nothing to suggest a new product is coming anytime soon. Normally you see surveys about product naming and FCC activity (equipment authorization filings, waiver requests, etc). The only suggestion is that TiVo has until next June for their box to comply with the IP output rule. I'm not sure if that has any bearing on their retail hardware though. Most of what I've read seems to suggest that TiVo looks to use their Roamio platform with software update for forward compatibly. However, if your looking at OTA, its not really applicable. IMHO - it'll likely be 3-4 years (or more) before a new platform comes out and most likely it will be driven by the technology used to replace CableCards.
     
  7. Series3Sub

    Series3Sub Active Member

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    TiVo also recenty layed off their hardware staff leaving 2 (or there abouts) as staff. TiVo CEO has made it clear they want out of the hardware biz and see their future being their software. iMHO: All the signs are that the Roamio is quite likely their last RETAIL box. Any new hardware is likely for MSO's, but TiVo really envisions just licensing their software to MSO's: that is the stated plan. The Roamio is truly the pinnacle with a far greater jump in tech with a sufficiently powerful chip to do all things it does. Unlike past generations, Roamio comes with a lot of tuners and is truly state of art with features with some future proofing and sufficiently powered. I don't think we're going to see another RETAIL box. I'd say safe to buy without much worry of a new REATIL anytime soon or far.
     
  8. lessd

    lessd Active Member

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    I agree with you, TiVo may put out a 4Tb Roamio in the near future, but that is no big deal as our Forum teem is working hard on that upgrade and I am sure they will be successful. (I don't think 4Tb or 600 hours of HD has a big demand point anyways, and you can now get that and more from WK)
    MSOs will be the next big step for TiVo, to replace Moto DVRs where they can. The cable card replacement option may require new retail TiVo hardware if and when cable cards stop being supported by the MSOs. The Roamios have a good 5 or more years of life left in them.
     
  9. dbyerman

    dbyerman New Member

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    Sep 12, 2000
    Las Vegas, NV
    Thank you all for the responses. Great info. Guess we'll make the leap and buy the hardware now.

    P.S. Only after posting my original message did I see the note at left that my first post was in the year 2000! Wow, 14 years, that is a long time!
     
  10. Series3Sub

    Series3Sub Active Member

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    Of course, after reading Tom Rogers quote about a TiVo "exit strategy," now I KNOW TiVo aint EVER gonna produce another RETAIL box again. Whoever acquires TiVo in the few years to come is not likely to produce anything for retail. I just hope that come 2018, the new owners keep the US servers for guide data, etc., but I doubt it because that costs money. At the very least we will get no more fixes. I think the buyer is likely to be a foreign entity who sees possibilities in Europe and Australia. Perhaps Sir Richard Branson, as TiVo for Virgin seems to be doing pretty well.
     
  11. jrtroo

    jrtroo User

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    Reference or cite please.
     
  12. jwbelcher

    jwbelcher New Member

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  13. CloudAtlas

    CloudAtlas New Member

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    The sky's not falling. Any strategic player would keep TiVo retail as retail pays for continued MSO expansion. It's profitable and companies like profits!

    ``However, there are two key reasons why TiVo is also continuing to sell its Roamio DVR directly to consumers.

    "Number one, it is the foundation for our innovation," Chopra said. "(Roamio) really is the thing our MSO customers aspire to be able to deliver. That product is typically a year or so ahead of what we have in our mass distribution channel. … And we're able to leverage all of the R&D that we invest in developing those products into driving revenue growth in the MSO channel."

    Second, Chopra said, its retail business is continuing to generate revenue--a little less than $100 million in 2013, "with pretty attractive gross margins." That revenue, he said, is key to funding continuing research and development. "Because of the shared nature of the R&D expense, if you were to exit that business you would not get much of a reduction in your operating costs. Therefore that revenue is effectively the thing that helps fund the R&D you need for the growth business, which is the MSO piece."``


    Read more: TiVo isn't exiting the retail business anytime soon, Chopra says - FierceOnlineVideo http://www.fierceonlinevideo.com/st...ime-soon-chopra-says/2014-06-04#ixzz33hyd6Zgo
    Subscribe at FierceOnlineVideo
     
  14. Series3Sub

    Series3Sub Active Member

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    The retail is not enough and too expensive, include the marketing and paying to be on the shelves, as well. Further, TiVO is a premium item, with a premium cost. The future growth for retail if devices such as Channel Master DVR+ (that thing, in its earlier versions, has a hardcore following) because the growth is with those who are NOT affluent who just out of principal refuse to pay a monthly fee. Sorry, but excecs say lots of rosy things to keep the stock price up and still say whatever positive spin it takes right up to the moment they sell or shut down. It is bad business to talk down parts of your company if you are looking for buyers with the best possible price.

    No, the sky is not falling, but things and the market are changing. We're all good for at least the next 4 - 5 years, but the worst case scenario for those of us on the retail is if TiVo is purchased because the buyers wont' be interested on the even worse retail biz by 2018, but only for its brand, or most likely, leaving the US for greener pastures in Europe and Australia. But continuing the costs of the US with TiVo's meager--by comparison to other STB makers--return, is just not someplace a new owner will want to go, and so seeing our TiVo's go the way of SezMi is a rational possibility for the retail boxes and even the MSO units, but one I truly hope doesn't come true. One never knows what plans buyers truly have once they acquire a company. Unfortunately, a negative outcome as it affects us is, to be fair, just as likely as a positive one (but, personally, I really think the negative is more likely just because things are creeping in that direction). The world is changing and TiVO may be the first, but not only company/service to go as time marches on. 2018 will be an interesting year. Does Nostradamus have anything to add about that year? :).
     
  15. jwbelcher

    jwbelcher New Member

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    It could be just like Moxi. TiVo gets bought and the retail piece vaporizes. That's the reality. If you look at acquisitions by companies like Symantec, the R&D disappears anyway right after the acquisition. Its very rare to see companies continue to innovate products after their acquisition.
     
  16. aaronwt

    aaronwt UHD Addict

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    The problem is the TiVo doesnt have a premium cost. It's the cable companies dvrs that have a premium cost since they cost so much more than TiVo . At least that is the case with Comcast and FiOS in my area.
     
  17. jrtroo

    jrtroo User

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    The quote certainly supports that Tivo is not opposed to completing due diligence to offers to purchase. However, the context is missing- is this in a statement to the public or answering a question from an investing agency? It matters.

    Small to mid-sized (and ever large) companies get and make offers to purchase, partner, or merge all the time. It is not public knowledge, but it is what happens. If this is being recognized out of the blue from Tivo in a statement the indicators are different then responding to a query.
     
  18. mr_smits

    mr_smits New Member

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    I think Tivo is using their crystal ball. Four years from now TV will be a different animal than it is today. Streaming, a la carte, and Aereo type services (with cloud hosted DVR) will be the growing wave.
     
  19. lessd

    lessd Active Member

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    I hope not if cloud service is anything like VOD or streaming is now, even with Netflix FF is a pain and with streaming you would not be able to skip ads, that would be a real bummer for me.
     
  20. CloudAtlas

    CloudAtlas New Member

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    So you won't believe the logical conclusions that R&D is a shared cost between retail and MSO? That retail is profitable with high margins as shown in quarterly statements (~$97 million 2013)? That stopping retail would not only save very little money (what marketing?) but actually kill a high margin, profitable sales area? TiVo is too expensive for the USA? The country where everyone drives large expensive SUVs? Where most children have a cellphone? Where there are ~100 million households paying a cable bill?

    Channel Master is burning through cash like every other DVR & streaming startup challenger. I wish them success, as competition is good, but 3 out of 4 startups fail unfortunately.
     

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